AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Thursday, 1 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs each day · RSI 44 · price 0.69278
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 0.7039 high; bounce capped below EMA20.
The week opened near 0.7008 and peaked at 0.7039 in Monday's NY session. Since then every rally has stalled lower: the RBA 'hawkish hold' was sold in Tuesday's Asia session, the soft trimmed-mean CPI pushed the pair through 0.6960 on Wednesday, and Thursday's NY session, with firm US labour data and the ISM prices-paid jump, drove a fresh week low at 0.6903. The rebound off that low stalled at 0.6933, in line with the EMA20, and the Thursday high at 0.6956 sits near the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop. That leaves the lower-highs trendline intact above.
Support: 0.69034, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.69559, 0.69874
What it said to watch
NFP, unemployment and AHE at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.6933 ema20 opens a test of the lower-highs trendline near 0.6941
Break above the thu high at 0.6956 (38.2% of the week drop) would end the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the week low at 0.6903 exposes the 0.6900 round number and extends the lower-low structure
Recovery through the wed high at 0.6987 (61.8% retracement) would negate the post-RBA reversal
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 0.7039 high.
The week opened at 0.7007 and peaked at 0.7039 in Monday's NY session. Since then the pair has printed lower highs: the RBA hawkish hold was sold in Tuesday's Asia session, Wednesday's trimmed-mean CPI miss extended the slide, and Thursday's firm US claims and hot ISM Prices Paid knocked it to a 0.6903 week low in the first hour of NY. The rebound has stalled at 0.6931, just under ema20 near 0.6935, where the 23.6% fib of the weekly fib move also sits, with the Wed low at 0.6942 and the lower-highs trendline near 0.6946 overhead.
Support: 0.69034, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69353, 0.69421, 0.69559
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6935 ema20 and the 23.6% weekly fib would be the first reclaim since Thursday's NY selloff
Recovery through the Wed low at 0.6942 and the lower-highs trendline near 0.6946 breaks the week's sequence; the Thu high at 0.6956 (38.2% fib) is the next reference
Failure to hold the 0.6903 week low and the 0.6900 round number extends the lower-low sequence
US NFP, unemployment and AHE on Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 0.7039 week high.
AUDUSD has printed a lower high every session since the week opened near 0.7007. The selling started with Tuesday's post-RBA Asia-session drop and continued after Wednesday's soft CPI, as US yields climbed. Thursday's NY-session ISM prices-paid jump took the pair to a 0.6903 week low, and the ~30-pip rebound since has run into the 50–61.8% retracement of Thursday's drop, where ema20 sits near 0.6935, with RSI(14) near 41 still below 50.
Support: 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6935, 0.6956, 0.6987
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs line near 0.6946 and the 0.6956 lower high would break the week's descending sequence
Rejection at ema20 near 0.6935 keeps the lower-high sequence intact; loss of the 0.6903 week low extends the downtrend
Recovery of the 0.6987 wed high is needed to negate the post-RBA breakdown structure
Fed speakers (Bowman, Williams, Cook) tonight and Friday's NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows every session since Monday's 0.7039 peak.
AUD/USD has printed a lower high every session since Monday's 0.7039 peak. The big legs came in Asia on Tuesday's dovish RBA hike and Wednesday's soft trimmed-mean CPI, then in NY today, when hot ISM prices paid and fresh US yield highs broke the 0.6930–0.6956 range down to a 0.6903 week low. Price is bouncing off a ny base near 0.6909 but sits below EMA(20) near 0.6935 and the lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) recovering only to about 40.
Support: 0.6909, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6935, 0.6956, 0.6994
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 0.6935 and the lower-high trendline near 0.6947 would mark the first break in the week's sequence
Thu high at 0.6956 coincides with the 38.2% week fib; reclaiming it shifts the read toward a broader retracement, with the wed high at 0.6994 the next swing
Failure to hold the ny base and the 0.6903 week low extends the lower-low sequence through the 0.6900 handle
Fed speakers Bowman, Williams and Cook (19:00–19:30 UTC) and Friday's NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read via US yields
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh week low · RSI 35 · price 0.6914
Lower highs every session since Monday; 0.6930–0.6955 range broken lower.
AUDUSD has printed a lower high every session since Monday's NY-hours 0.7039 peak and now trades about 93 pips under the 0.7007 weekly open. The leg started with Tuesday's Asia-session drop after the RBA's dovish hike. Today's NY-hours break of the 0.6930–0.6955 range followed ISM prices paid, which lifted US yields and printed a week low at 0.6903. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), London's bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib near 0.6955, and RSI(14) near 35 is not yet oversold.
Support: 0.6903, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6932, 0.6955, 0.7007
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.6932 bounce high and EMA(20) near 0.6940 would interrupt the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6903 week low exposes the 0.6900 psych level
A reclaim of the 38.2% fib at 0.6955 and the lower-high trendline would invalidate the downtrend read
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) today, plus Friday's 12:30 UTC NFP, could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's peak; fresh week low after the break of 0.6930.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 0.7039 peak. The 0.7007 weekly open gave way in Tuesday's Asia session after Bullock's dovish-leaning RBA hike, and the slide extended after Wednesday's soft trimmed-mean CPI. NY-hours US data drove the latest leg: rising yields after today's ISM release broke Thursday's 0.6930 prior low and set a fresh week low at 0.6903, with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 31. Earlier, Thursday's bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib of the week's drop around 0.6956, in line with the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 0.69034, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69304, 0.69559, 0.70068
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6930 prior low negates Thursday's breakout
Failure to hold the 0.6900 round number extends the lower-low sequence beyond the 0.6903 week low
Reclaim of 0.6956 (38.2% fib) and the lower-highs trendline breaks the week's lower-high structure
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC and US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs each day · RSI 32 · price 0.69113
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 0.7039 peak; Thursday range broken lower.
Each session since Monday's 0.7039 high has printed a lower high: the RBA bar on Tuesday, the 0.6987 Wed high on the post-PCE spike, then Thursday's 0.6956 cap at the fib 38.2 of the Mon high–Thu low leg. The Asia-London range low near 0.6930 gave way in the first hours of NY as firm ISM prices paid and lower jobless claims lifted the USD, and the slide extended to a 0.6903 day low. Price now trades below EMA(20) near 0.6938 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) in the low 30s and not yet at oversold.
Support: 0.69034, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6930, 0.6956, 0.69874
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6930 range low would mark the break as a false break
Acceptance below the 0.6903 day low and the 0.6900 round number extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery through the fib 38.2 at 0.6956 and the lower highs trendline would break the daily lower-high pattern; the 0.6987 Wed high is the next reference above
Fed speakers (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) later today and Friday's NFP (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 0.7039 week high. Most of the damage came in Asia hours: the post-RBA drop on Tuesday and Wednesday's slide after the soft trimmed-mean CPI. London-session bounces faded below the ema20 each time. In the NY session, hawkish ISM details and firm jobless claims lifted USD, breaking Thursday's 0.6930–0.6956 range lower to a fresh week low at 0.6923. RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.6923, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6930, 0.6943, 0.6956
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.6930 london low would turn today's range break into a false break
A close above the lower-high line near 0.6950, close to the 23.6% fib of the week's high-low move, and the 0.6956 thu high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6923 week low exposes the 0.6900 round number
Fedspeak from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) and Friday's 12:30 UTC NFP could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Thursday bounce testing falling trendline.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.7039 peak. Bullock's dovish-leaning hike broke the 0.70 handle in Tuesday's Asia session, the 0.6994 wed high faded after the soft trimmed-mean CPI, and a post-PCE bounce was sold through NY hours as USD firmed on yields. Thursday's London morning dip set a new week low at 0.6930 before rebounding to a 0.6956 day high, where the falling lower-highs trendline and the 23.6% retracement of the Monday–Thursday drop both sit; price is now hugging EMA(20) with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6956, 0.6972, 0.6994
What it said to watch
US ISM Manufacturing (f/c 55, Prices Paid 72.3) and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.6956 day high and lower-highs trendline breaks the Tuesday-onward sequence; 38.2% fib at 0.6972 is next
Failure to hold the 0.6942 wed low and then the 0.6930 week low confirms another lower-low
Wed high at 0.6994 marks the last swing high below 0.70 in the downtrend structure
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs each day · RSI 37 · price 0.69331
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, fresh week low.
AUD/USD has lost roughly 105 pips from Monday's 0.7039 peak. It printed a lower high each day: Tuesday's spike on the RBA decision faded, and the Wed high at 0.6994 after the trimmed-mean CPI miss failed. The NY-session USD bid after PCE then extended the leg. The London open today broke the Asian range and set a new week low at 0.6932. Price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) is holding in the high 30s without divergence.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6994, 0.7007
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC, with Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
An H1 close back above the 0.6955 asia high would neutralise today's range break
Failure to hold the 0.6932 week low exposes the 0.6900 round number
A break of the lower highs trendline, toward the 0.6994 wed high, would end the daily lower-high sequence; the weekly open at 0.7007 sits just above
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 0.7039 peak.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs all week from Monday's 0.7039 high. The two main legs lower came after the RBA's dovish follow-through on Tuesday and on firm US data during Wednesday's NY session. Thursday's London open broke the overnight Asian range to a fresh week low at 0.6934, and price holds below the ema20 near 0.6945 with RSI(14) near 39 and no divergence. The bounce to the 0.6955 asian high stalled short of the 23.6% level of the week decline fib, keeping retracements shallow.
Support: 0.69343, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69445, 0.69553, 0.69943
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6955 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the descending trendline and the 0.6994 wed high negates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6934 week low opens the path toward the 0.6900 round number
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday's 0.7039 peak; tight base above week low.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.7039 peak. The Asia session drove the damage: the post-RBA sell-off on Tuesday and the CPI-driven drop on Wednesday, while the NY spike after soft US PCE was rejected at the 0.6987 lower high. Price has since compressed into a roughly 15-pip Asian range above the 0.6939 week low, with the flattening EMA(20) near 0.6951 and the 0.6955 session high capping it, and RSI(14) recovering from the mid-30s toward the low-40s.
Support: 0.69392, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69509, 0.69553, 0.69874
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), then ISM Manufacturing and Waller (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.6955 session high and the ema20 breaks the overnight compression
H1 close below the 0.6939 week low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.6900 round number
A recovery that stalls under the lower-highs trendline or the 0.6987 lower high keeps the downtrend structure intact
Lower highs since Monday, PCE range break holding.
AUDUSD opened the week below Friday's 0.7025 close and has printed lower highs since Monday's NY session peak at 0.7039. The RBA's dovish hike in Tuesday's Asia session broke 0.70, and yesterday's trimmed-mean CPI miss extended the slide. The post-PCE spike to the 0.6987 pce high was rejected in the NY session, which broke the Wednesday range and sent price to the 0.6939 week low, where it has stalled through Asia under ema20 with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 0.6939, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6953, 0.6987, 0.7000
What it said to watch
RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC follows the Trade Balance release and could extend or stall the move from the week low.
Failure to hold the 0.6939 week low confirms another lower low and leaves the 0.6900 round number as the next reference.
An H1 close back above ema20 at 0.6953 would ease the stretched downside momentum.
An H1 close above the lower-high trendline near 0.6970, which is close to the 38.2% fib at 0.6977, breaks the week's sequence.
A move back through the 0.6987 pce high toward 0.7000 psych would mark acceptance back above the broken range.
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours.
00:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stalling at week low · RSI 22 · price 0.69445
Lower highs each session since Monday; tight Asian range at the low.
From the 0.7007 week open and Monday's 0.7039 high, AUDUSD has set a lower high every session. Tuesday's dovish RBA hike broke the pair below 0.70, and Wednesday's trimmed-mean CPI miss extended the slide to the 0.6958 cpi low. The NY-session reversal from the post-PCE high at 0.6987 then broke that low, and price is now compressed in a 6-pip Asian range just above the 0.6942 week low. It trades below both EMAs with RSI(14) oversold in the low 20s.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6987, 0.7007
What it said to watch
AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could break the Asian range either way
Failure to hold the 0.6942 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6900 psych level
H1 close back above the 0.6958 cpi low would mark the NY breakdown as failing
Close above the lower highs trendline (~0.6975) and the 38.2% of the week's drop (0.6979) near the 0.6987 pce high breaks the sequence; the week open at 0.7007 sits just above
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, alongside Waller, could materially shift this read