Post-selloff range 0.7004–0.7045 with lower highs and flat lows.
Wednesday's selloff from 0.7116 to 0.7025 set the tone for the week on a firm USD and the global bond sell-off. Since Thursday, price has compressed in a 0.7004–0.7045 range, with lower highs at the 0.7045 range top, Friday's 0.7042 and the 0.7039 Monday high set during the NY session, while lows stay flat at the 0.7004 week low and the 0.7006 Monday low above the 0.7000 psych mark. Monday's weekend gap lower filled in Asia, but the NY spike was rejected back below EMA(20) near 0.7020, and RSI(14) sits flat near 50 into the RBA decision.
Support: 0.70062, 0.70037, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.70387, 0.70447
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's 05:30 UTC press conference are the likely catalyst for a break of the range; guidance on further hikes is the swing factor
H1 close below the 0.7004 week low and the 0.7000 psych level extends the Wednesday selloff into a fresh lower low
H1 close above the 0.7045 range top and the lower-highs line puts the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday selloff near 0.7047 in play
Holding back above ema20 near 0.7020 would neutralise Monday's rejection from the monday high at 0.7039
US JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC and Australia Aug CPI Wed 01:30 UTC could extend any post-RBA move
22:03 UTC
Downtrend stalled, compressing in a range · RSI 49 · price 0.70175
Lower highs pressing a flat 0.7004–0.7007 floor.
Wednesday's selloff ran from 0.7116 through London and into the NY open, shedding about 110 pips. Price has since compressed between the 0.7004 swing low and the 0.7045 range top, which sits at the 38.2% retrace of that selloff, with lower highs at 0.7045, 0.7042 and Monday's 0.7039. Monday gapped below Friday's 0.7025 prior close and held the 0.7007 weekly open during Asia and London. The NY spike on US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines was rejected at the Monday high, and price is back under a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 0.7020. RSI(14) is near 49 and ATR has contracted to about 9 pips heading into the RBA.
Support: 0.70068, 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70249, 0.70387, 0.70447
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the guidance is the swing factor
H1 close below the 0.7004 swing low and the 0.7000 round number confirms a range break lower toward 0.6975
H1 close above the 0.7045 range top clears the lower-highs line and the 38.2% fib
Reclaim of the 0.7025 prior close would put price back above EMA(20)/EMA(50)
Australia Aug CPI Wed 01:30 UTC and US ADP Wed 12:15 UTC are follow-through risk
21:05 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a range · RSI 48 · price 0.70169
Lower highs capping a 0.7004–0.7042 range above 0.7000.
The week's dominant move was the Wednesday slide from 0.7117 into the 0.7000 area, led by the NY session as USD strength on Fed-hike pricing weighed. Since Thursday price has held a 0.7004–0.7042 range, and Monday's gap-down weekly open at 0.7006 has held as a floor. Monday's NY spike to 0.7039 on the Iran-sanctions headline met rejection beneath the lower highs trendline and short of the range top at 0.7040, leaving price back under the ema20 near 0.7020 with RSI(14) flat around 48.
Support: 0.7006, 0.7000, 0.6975
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.7040, 0.7075
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's press conference at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read. Guidance tone is the likely range-break trigger.
H1 close below psych 0.7000 breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.6975 channel low.
Close above the 0.7040 range top and the lower highs trendline opens the path to the 0.7075 channel top, near the 38.2% of the Wednesday slide.
Failure to reclaim the ema20 near 0.7020 keeps price pressing toward the weekly open at 0.7006.
Aug CPI Wed 01:30 UTC is immediate follow-through risk after the RBA.
20:03 UTC
Downtrend, paused in a tight base above 0.7000 · RSI 49 · price 0.70181
Post-impulse consolidation 0.7004–0.7045 with lower highs and higher lows.
The dominant move came Wednesday, when AUDUSD slid from 0.7117 to 0.7025 from London into NY as Treasury yields and Fed-hike pricing lifted the USD. Since Thursday the pair has held a 0.7004–0.7045 range, with the range low untouched and each high lower than the last, compressing into a pennant. Monday gapped down to the 0.7007 weekly open and filled the gap into NY. The rally was rejected at the 0.7039 monday high, and price is back under EMA(20) at 0.7021 with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 0.7007, 0.7004
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.7039, 0.7045
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's 05:30 UTC presser: the guidance could decide which side of the pennant gives way
Hourly close below the 0.7004 range low, beneath the weekly open, breaks the higher-lows line and resumes the downtrend below 0.7000
Hourly close above the 0.7045 range top, near the 38.2% of Wednesday's sell-off, ends the lower-highs sequence
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.7021 turns focus back to the 0.7039 monday high
US JOLTS and Fedspeak Tue 14:00–19:00 UTC via the USD-yield channel
Pennant after Wednesday's slide: lower highs, higher lows.
Wednesday's slide from 0.7117 to 0.7025 on firm USD and Fed-hike repricing has since compressed into a pennant, with lower highs at the 0.7045 range top and the 0.7039 Monday high against higher lows off the 0.7004 week low. Monday's gap below Friday's close at 0.7025 filled during NY hours, but the NY spike to 0.7039 was rejected and price has slipped back just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) flat near 47. The 0.7007 higher low and 0.7000 psych level define the pennant base into the RBA decision.
Support: 0.70073, 0.70037, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70249, 0.70387, 0.70447
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's press conference at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.7007 higher low and 0.7004 week low breaks the pennant base and exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Close back above the 0.7025 fri close and then the 0.7039 monday high and 0.7045 range top invalidates the lower-high sequence; the 38.2% of the Wednesday slide fib sits near 0.7047
US JOLTS 14:00 UTC and Tuesday Fedspeak (Williams, Waller) are a second risk window for USD
Post-selloff range 0.7004–0.7045, higher lows since Monday open.
Wednesday's NY-session sell-off took AUDUSD from 0.7115 to 0.7028 as Fed hike repricing and cycle-high US yields lifted the dollar. Since Thursday it has held a 0.7004–0.7045 range, with the week low at 0.7004 and Friday's range top at 0.7042–0.7045. Monday gapped down to the weekly open at 0.7007 and has since printed higher lows at 0.7006, 0.7007 and 0.7011. The NY-session spike to the Monday high at 0.7039 was rejected below the range top, and price now sits just above the EMA(20) near 0.7021 with RSI(14) flat around 52.
Support: 0.7021, 0.7007, 0.7004
Resistance: 0.7039, 0.7045, 0.7048
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC, presser 05:30 UTC: a 4.60% hike is fully priced, so guidance tone could break the 0.7004–0.7045 range either way
H1 close above the 0.7045 range top clears the Monday high and brings the fib 38.2 at 0.7048 into play
Loss of the ema20 and the Monday higher-low line puts the weekly open at 0.7007 and the week low at 0.7004 back in focus
A break below the 0.7004 week low and 0.7000 would resume the downtrend from Wednesday's decline
US JOLTS and Fedspeak (Williams, Waller) later Tuesday could shift USD tone
Converging range 0.7004–0.7045 after Wednesday's impulse lower.
Most of the damage came in Wednesday's decline from 0.7120. The slide accelerated into the NY session as Fed hike repricing and 5%+ US yields lifted the dollar, and the Wednesday-Friday decline bottomed at the 0.7004 swing low. Since Thursday, price has compressed between that low and a 0.7045 range top, with lower highs and higher lows narrowing the band. Monday gapped below Friday's close to the 0.7007 weekly open and has since printed higher lows, but the NY push to the 0.7039 monday high met rejection. Price sits just above the ema20 and below the ema50, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.70207, 0.70068, 0.70036
Resistance: 0.7025, 0.70387, 0.70447
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (presser 05:30) — guidance on further hikes could materially shift this read given crowded AUD shorts
H1 close above the 0.7045 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 38.2% decline fib near 0.7048
Failure to hold the weekly open and 0.7004 swing low / 0.7000 psych resumes the downtrend structure
Repeat rejection at the 0.7039 monday high with price back below the ema20 keeps the range capped and the ema50 as overhead
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, then Tuesday JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak, as USD-side risk
Contracting 0.7004–0.7042 range after Tue–Thu impulse lower; lower highs vs higher lows.
The slide from Tuesday's 0.7120 high was driven mainly in Wednesday's NY session and extended to a 0.7004 swing low on Thursday, as Fed-hike repricing and multi-decade-high US yields kept the dollar bid. Since then the pair has compressed, with lower highs (Friday high 0.7042, Monday high 0.7029) against higher lows near the weekly open at 0.7007, and price is pinned at EMA(20) around 0.7020 with RSI(14) flat near 47. Monday's NY push stalled at 0.7029 and faded back toward the NY low at 0.7011, leaving the range intact ahead of the RBA decision.
Support: 0.70113, 0.70068, 0.70037
Resistance: 0.70197, 0.70287, 0.70423
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (hike to 4.60% fully priced): statement guidance could materially shift this read out of the compression
H1 close below the weekly open 0.7007 and the 0.7004 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.7000 psych level
H1 close above the Monday high 0.7029 breaks the lower highs line; the Friday high 0.7042 and the 38.2% retracement of the Tue–Thu drop near 0.7048 sit above
Loss of the higher lows line keeps the downtrend read in control
US JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak Tue 14:00–19:00 UTC, with Cook today at 17:15 UTC, are the USD-side risk to the range
Wednesday's NY-session selloff took AUDUSD from 0.7120 to the 0.7004 swing low by Thursday as US yields pushed higher, and price has since compressed in a 0.7004–0.7042 range. Monday gapped lower to the 0.7007 weekly open and demand stepped in there twice, but the Monday high at 0.7029 capped both the London and NY-open pushes, extending the lower highs from Friday's 0.7042. Price is pinned at EMA(20) and just below EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 49 into the RBA decision.
Support: 0.70068, 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70287, 0.70423, 0.70482
What it said to watch
H1 close above the Monday high at 0.7029 breaks the lower-highs line and opens the Friday high at 0.7042, then the 38.2% fib of the selloff at 0.7048
Failure to hold the weekly open at 0.7007 and the 0.7004 swing low at the range low exposes the 0.7000 round number
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today and JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC feed US yields, the main driver of the recent selloff
0.7004–0.7042 range since Thursday after Wednesday's breakdown; Monday double-bottom attempt.
Wednesday's London-into-NY slide from the 0.7120 area set the week's direction as USD firmed on 2007-high Treasury yields and Fed hike pricing. Since Thursday the pair has held a 0.7004–0.7042 range, with Thursday's mixed jobs data producing only a whipsaw. Monday gapped down to the weekly open near 0.7007, and demand stepped in there twice, at the Asia open and again in London. That puts price back above the ema20 (~0.7021) with RSI(14) near 57, pressing the Monday high at 0.7029, where EMA(50) also sits.
Support: 0.7021, 0.7007, 0.7004
Resistance: 0.7029, 0.7042, 0.7048
What it said to watch
H1 close above the Monday high 0.7029 confirms the double bottom and breaks the lower highs line from Friday. That opens the Friday high 0.7042 and the 38.2% fib of the decline at 0.7048.
Rejection at 0.7029 with a close back below ema20 0.7021 keeps the range read and the lower highs intact.
Loss of the weekly open 0.7007 and the swing low at 0.7004 breaks the range floor and exposes 0.7000.
The RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's presser at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read. The 4.60% hike is priced, so the guidance on further tightening is what matters.
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today and Tuesday's JOLTS at 14:00 UTC keep US yields in play for the NY session.
Range 0.7004–0.7045 after Wednesday impulse; lower highs since Friday.
Wednesday's London-into-NY selloff took AUDUSD from above 0.7100 to 0.7025, and Thursday's NY session extended it to the 0.7004 swing low as US yields pushed through 5.20% and Fed hike pricing firmed. Since then price has been boxed between that floor and the 0.7045 Thu high. Monday opened with a gap below the Fri close at 0.7025; the Asian-session bounce stalled at the Monday high at 0.7028 and London faded it back toward the Monday low, leaving price flat on EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 54 under a line of lower highs.
Support: 0.70062, 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70249, 0.70283, 0.70447
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7028 monday high and the lower highs line fills the gap to the fri close and reopens the 0.7045 thu high; the 23.6% level of the Wednesday drop fib sits at 0.7031
Failure to hold the 0.7004 swing low and 0.7000 psych confirms a lower low and resumes the downtrend
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock press conference 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today and JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC keep US yields as the dominant driver into the range edges
Lower highs compressing into flat base 0.7004–0.7044 since Thursday.
The 0.7120–0.7004 selloff came on USD strength from higher US yields and hawkish Fed pricing. Its heaviest leg ran in Wednesday's NY session, and it has since stalled into a tight base above 0.7000 psych, with the bounce so far failing to reach the 23.6% level of the selloff fib. Since Thursday, dips have held the 0.7004 swing low and Monday's gap-down weekly open near 0.7007, while highs have stepped lower from the 0.7044 range top to the 0.7028 Monday high set in Asia. Price is flat on EMA(20), below EMA(50) and the unfilled Friday close gap at 0.7025, with RSI(14) near 49.
Support: 0.70068, 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70249, 0.70283, 0.70447
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (hike to 4.60% priced) and Bullock's 05:30 UTC press conference could break the range either way
H1 close below the 0.7000 psych level and the range floor line would end the base and extend the downtrend
Reclaim of the 0.7028 monday high breaks the lower highs line and fills the friday close gap, opening the 0.7044 range top
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today, plus JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC, are the USD-side risk to this read
Lower highs since Friday over a 0.7004–0.7045 base.
The week decline from Tuesday's 0.7120 high was driven by Wednesday's London-into-NY leg through 0.7030, and price has based between the 0.7004 week low and 0.7045 since Thursday as Fed hike pricing and 5%+ US yields kept USD firm. Monday opened with a gap lower from Friday's 0.7025 close to a weekly open near 0.7007, in line with DXY gapping higher. An Asia-session recovery stalled at the 0.7028 monday high, extending the lower highs from the 0.7042 friday high. London has since pushed price back below EMA20 near 0.7018, with RSI(14) back in the low 40s.
Support: 0.70068, 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7018, 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.7004 week low breaks the Thursday–Friday base and puts the 0.7000 psych figure in play
Hold of the weekly open at 0.7007 keeps the base intact; recovery above ema20 and the 0.7028 monday high breaks the lower highs line
Close above the 0.7042 friday high opens the 38.2% retrace of the week decline near 0.7048
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman 12:15 UTC and Cook 17:15 UTC today, then JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC, are USD-side risk
Lower highs capping a 0.7004–0.7042 base after Wednesday's sell-off.
Wednesday's London-into-NY sell-off from 0.7110 to 0.7025 set the tone for the week. Since Thursday, price has compressed into a base above the 0.7004 week low, and Friday's high at 0.7042 stalled short of the 38.2% level of the sell-off fib. Monday's gap lower from Friday's 0.7025 close filled during the Asia session, but the 0.7028 monday high printed another lower high. London has since pushed price back under the H1 ema20 (~0.7019), with RSI(14) near 43. Hawkish Fed pricing and firm US yields keep the pair pinned near the psych 0.7000 figure into Tuesday's RBA decision.
Support: 0.70062, 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70193, 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.7006 monday low puts the 0.7004 week low and the 0.7000 psych figure in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6975 channel support cited in the digest.
An H1 close above the monday high at 0.7028 breaks the lower highs line; the friday high at 0.7042 and the 38.2% sell-off fib near 0.7048 sit above.
Repeated H1 closes back above the ema20 (~0.7019) would shift the base from capped to recovering.
The RBA decision at Tue 04:30 UTC (hike to 4.60% priced) and Bullock's guidance at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today, then JOLTS on Tue at 14:00 UTC, test USD hike pricing and could change the read.
Tight range after Wednesday's selloff; higher lows vs lower highs.
AUDUSD has held a 0.7004–0.7045 range since Wednesday's London-to-NY selloff from the Tuesday high near 0.7120. Elevated US yields and hawkish Fedspeak kept the USD bid through that drop. Monday opened with an ~18-pip gap below Friday's close on weekend Iran headlines, but the Asia-session low at 0.7006 held above the week low, and price has pared back to 0.7021, sitting on EMA(20) and just under EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 46. The Monday high at 0.7028 is a lower high against Friday's 0.7042 range top, and the London low at 0.7011 is the first support beneath.
Support: 0.7011, 0.7004, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7028, 0.7042, 0.7120
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC: guidance on further hikes vs a 'done' signal could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.7000 psych level, through the week low, breaks the range of higher lows
H1 close above the 0.7042 range top would break the lower highs sequence and open the Wednesday selloff retracement
Loss of the london low at 0.7011 puts the week low at 0.7004 back in focus
Tue US JOLTS and Fedspeak (Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams) feed the USD leg ahead of Wed ADP/PCE
07:03 UTC
Downtrend stalled into a base above 0.7000 · RSI 42 · price 0.70153
Post-selloff range 0.7004–0.7045, lower highs capping, floor intact.
The week's dominant move was Wednesday's selloff from 0.7120 to 0.7030, driven into the NY session as US yields pushed higher. Since then price has held a 0.7004–0.7045 range, with the range top at 0.7045 capping twice and the range floor at 0.7004 absorbing tests just above the 0.7000 psych. Monday's Asia session opened on a gap down to the weekly open at 0.70068 on weekend oil and USD strength. The rebound stalled at the 0.70283 Monday high and is fading back under the EMA20 into the London open, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.70068, 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70217, 0.70283, 0.70447
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.70036 range floor and 0.7000 psych confirms a range break and a fresh lower low
Reclaiming the EMA20 and the Monday high at 0.70283 keeps the weekly open gap-fill toward 0.7025 in play
H1 close above the 0.70447 range top invalidates the base read and exposes the Wednesday selloff fib 38.2% near 0.7048
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's 05:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
US ADP and PCE on Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC are a second volatility risk for the range
Lower highs from 0.7120; flat range 0.7004–0.7045 since Thursday.
The decline from Tuesday's 0.7120 week high accelerated in Wednesday's NY session as US 10y yields pushed above 5.20%, and since Thursday price has held a tight range between the 0.7004 week low and a 0.7043 lower high, with Friday's rebound stalling short of the 38.2% retracement of the decline. Monday opened with a gap down to 0.7006 (monday low) and has since filled it to a 0.7028 monday high during the Asia session. Price sits on EMA(20) but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR compressed ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.7006, 0.7004, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7028, 0.7043, 0.7120
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC with Bullock's presser at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.7000 psych level breaks the range base and the week low
H1 close above the 0.7043 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.7120 week high as the next structural reference
Failure to clear the 0.7028 monday high keeps price capped under EMA(50) in the lower half of the range
US ADP and PCE on Wed 30 Sep could extend the yield-driven move
02:03 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a range · RSI 44 · price 0.7018
Range 0.7004–0.7045 after Wednesday's selloff.
Wednesday's selloff did the damage. It began in London and extended through NY hours, taking the pair from the 0.7110s to 0.7025 as the USD yield rally dominated. Since then price has held a 0.7004–0.7045 range, with the range top capping Thursday and Friday and the week low at 0.7004 absorbing three tests. Monday's Asia session gapped below the Friday close at 0.7025, found demand at the weekly open near 0.7007, and is now stalling just under EMA(20) around 0.7022, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.70068, 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70249, 0.70445
What it said to watch
The RBA decision on Tue 29 Sep at 04:30 UTC, and the guidance on further hikes, could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 0.7004 week low and the 0.7000 psych level would break the range floor and open the 0.6970 area
A gap fill back through the 0.7025 Friday close and EMA(20) would keep the range intact; a failure there leaves the lower-high sequence in place
An H1 close above the 0.7045 range top, near the 38.2% retracement of Wednesday's selloff, would invalidate the range read
Lower highs from 0.7126; 0.7004–0.7045 range since Wed.
Wednesday's sell-off from 0.7100 to 0.7025 was the week's dominant move. It started in London and accelerated into the NY session, extending the slide from Tuesday's 0.7126 high as US 10y yields above 5.20% and Fed-hike bets drove USD. Since then price has compressed into a 0.7004–0.7045 range, holding above the week low and the 0.7000 psych, while Friday's NY rebound stalled at the range top, below the 38.2% retracement of the sell-off. Monday's Asia session gapped below the Friday close to 0.7006 and is now retesting EMA(20) near 0.7020 from below, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.7004, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.7025, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.7004 week low and 0.7000 psych breaks the range floor and resumes the downtrend
Reclaim of EMA(20) and the 0.7025 friday close fills Monday's gap; a close above the 0.7045 range top opens the 38.2% retracement near 0.7050
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC: a 25bp hike is priced, so guidance on further hikes could materially shift this read
US ADP and PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC; the US 10y holding above 5.20% keeps USD the dominant driver
Lower highs over a 0.7004–0.7045 band since Wednesday's breakdown.
AUDUSD has shed about 120 pips from Tuesday's 0.7126 high. The main leg ran from Wednesday's London open into NY as rising US yields and Fed-hike pricing lifted the USD. Since then price has held a 0.7004–0.7045 band with lower highs at 0.7045 and the 0.7042 friday high, while Friday's Asia-session week low at 0.7004 printed on an RSI(14) higher low versus Wednesday's trough. Monday's open gapped below the 0.7025 friday close and price sits under EMA(20) near 0.7020 with RSI(14) around 36.
Support: 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70198, 0.70249, 0.70423
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.7004 week low and the 0.7000 psych level extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 0.7020 and a gap fill to the 0.7025 friday close would neutralise Monday's weakness
Break of the lower highs line and the 0.7042 friday high opens the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday–Friday drop near 0.7050
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read