AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 29 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, third straight down day · RSI 45 · price 0.69588
Lower highs, lower lows since Tuesday.
AUD/USD has been offered all week after Tuesday's soft Q2 CPI print (3.8% vs 4.0%) all but killed August RBA hike bets, driving a third straight down day into the 0.6922 weekly low. A sharp spike to 0.69838 during the session was fully rejected within the hour, leaving supply capping near that level while price steadied in the mid-0.6950s. RSI(14) is recovering off the lows toward mid-40s but structure stays lower-high, lower-low.
Support: 0.69219, 0.6946, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69838
What it said to watch
Close below 0.6922 confirms a fresh lower-low and opens the 0.6900 200-dma zone
H1 close above 0.69838 spike high would break the lower-high sequence
US Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC is the immediate cross-asset driver and could reset this read
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, third down day · RSI 45 · price 0.69588
Lower highs into week low.
AUD has printed three straight down days, the soft Q2 CPI (3.8% vs 4.0%) driving the break below 0.6950 to a two-week low at 0.69219. A sharp spike toward 0.69838 during the FOMC hold was immediately rejected, leaving lower highs intact and price back below EMA20/50. Buyers steadied just above the mid-0.6900s but the week structure remains lower-high, lower-low.
Support: 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69838
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.69838 invalidates the lower-highs sequence
Loss of 0.69219 opens the 200-DMA / 0.6900 zone
US Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could reshape this read via the USD side
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, choppy after spike · RSI 48 · price 0.69519
Lower highs, two-week low printed.
AUDUSD has trended lower since the week's open, dragged by yesterday's soft Q2 CPI miss that all but killed August RBA hike bets, bottoming at a two-week low of 0.6922. A sharp spike toward 0.6988 around the FOMC hold was fully reversed within the hour — a clear false break that left supply capping near 0.6988. Price now hovers around EMA(20) but stays below EMA(50) with RSI mid-range.
Support: 0.6922, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6988, 0.7000, 0.7011
What it said to watch
Core PCE/GDP cluster Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this USD-side read
Failure to hold 0.6922 opens the 0.6900 200-dma test
H1 close back above 0.6988 negates the false break and reopens 0.7000
Lower highs and lower lows, mid-range consolidation.
AUD/USD has trended lower all week since Monday's open near 0.7000, accelerating after Tuesday's soft Q2 CPI miss drove a clean break below 0.6950 toward the 0.6920 week low. The FOMC hold spiked price up to 0.6984 in the NY session before it was firmly rejected back into the mid-0.6950s. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the low-40s, keeping the weekly downside sequence intact while it consolidates above the trough.
Support: 0.6920, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6984, 0.7011
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.6920 confirms a lower-low and opens the path toward 0.6900
Reclaim of the 0.6984 fomc high needed to challenge the lower-high sequence
Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift the USD side of this read
21:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs · RSI 46 · price 0.69545
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
AUDUSD has trended lower all week under a clean sequence of lower highs after the soft Q2 CPI print cemented an RBA pause, dragging price down to a weekly low at 0.69235. The FOMC hold spiked the pair to 0.6985 in the NY session before a sharp rejection back below 0.6955, leaving price hugging the 0.6950 pivot with RSI mid-range. The 200-DMA cluster near 0.6900 remains the defended downside marker.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69235, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6985
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6985 negates the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold 0.69235 opens the path to the 0.6900 200-dma
US Core PCE / GDP Thu drives the USD leg and could shift this read
21:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs · RSI 48 · price 0.69545
Sequence of lower highs, bouncing off 0.6900 zone.
AUDUSD extended a third straight down-day this week after the soft Q2 CPI cemented an RBA pause, carving lower highs from 0.7011. The FOMC hold spiked price to 0.6984 in the last hours before it was rejected hard back to 0.6955, leaving that reaction high as fresh supply. Price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI mid-40s, and the 0.6900 200-DMA cluster remains the key demand area defended so far.
Support: 0.69235, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69838, 0.70108
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6900 200-dma zone confirms a lower-low
H1 close back above the 0.6984 fomc high neutralises the lower-highs read
US Core PCE / GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift the USD leg
AUDUSD has printed lower highs all week, pressured after yesterday's soft Q2 CPI cemented an RBA pause and dragged price from the 0.70108 week high toward the 0.69235 low. The FOMC hold at 18:00 GMT sparked a sharp spike to 0.69838, but it was rejected within the same hour and price snapped back below EMA20/EMA50 near 0.6950. RSI sits mid-40s with no bullish divergence into the recovery.
Support: 0.69235, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69838, 0.70108
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.69838 invalidates the lower-highs sequence
Loss of 0.69235 opens the 0.6900 200-DMA cluster
US Core PCE / Q2 GDP Thu could re-rate the USD leg
Week's lower-highs broken by FOMC snap-back from 0.6920.
AUDUSD spent the week grinding lower under a sequence of lower highs after the soft Q2 CPI, printing a two-week low near 0.6920 into the FOMC hold. The final NY hour reversed violently, reclaiming the 0.6960 and 0.6980 shelves in a single bar as stretched USD longs unwound. Twin lows at 0.6922/0.6924 held before the snap-back, and price now sits back inside the prior range above both EMAs.
Support: 0.6920, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7010
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.6960 reopens the weekly low at 0.6920
H1 close above 0.6990 exposes the 0.7010 weekly high
FOMC presser volatility can extend or unwind this snap-back
AUDUSD spent the week grinding lower under a sequence of lower highs after soft Q2 CPI cemented an RBA pause, printing a week low at 0.69219. The dovish-leaning FOMC hold triggered a sharp reversal candle off the spike base near 0.6934, lifting price ~50 pips to 0.69834 and back above the H1 EMA(20)/EMA(50). The reclaim stalls just under the weekly open at 0.6995, where the week's lower-highs sequence still caps.
Support: 0.6934, 0.69219
Resistance: 0.6995, 0.7000, 0.70108
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 0.70108 invalidates the lower-highs read
Warsh FOMC presser tonight is the live USD driver for the next bars
Failure to hold 0.6934 spike base reopens the 0.69219 week low
AUDUSD extended a third straight day lower after Tuesday's soft Q2 CPI miss, breaking under 0.6950 and sweeping the week low at 0.6922 during NY hours. The final bar snapped back to 0.6956 off that low, reclaiming the H1 EMc20 but still capped by the descending sequence of lower highs. RSI(14) has lifted off oversold into the mid-40s on the bounce.
Support: 0.69235, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6960
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT is the dominant near-term driver and could override this structural read
Failure to hold 0.6922 opens the 0.6900 200-dma
H1 close back above 0.6960 last ny close would challenge the lower-high sequence
AUD/USD fell for a third straight day, sliding from the 0.7010 area early in the week to a two-week low at 0.69219 after the soft Q2 CPI print gutted August RBA hike bets. The final bar snapped back to 0.69564, stalling right at the 38.2% retrace of the week's decline. Price is testing EMA(20) from below with EMA(50) still overhead and RSI recovering off oversold territory.
Support: 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69732, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision tonight is the dominant near-term USD driver and could reset this read
H1 close back above the 0.69732 swing high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.69219 opens the path to the 0.6900 200-DMA
AUDUSD has trended lower for a third session after the soft Q2 CPI print, failing repeatedly at the 0.7000 psych cap and cracking below the weekly open near 0.6995. The break under 0.69509 accelerated into a fresh two-week low at 0.69219, with price holding well below EMA20 and EMA50. RSI(14) sits in the low-30s, extended but not yet showing divergence.
Support: 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69509, 0.69953, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision (Wed) is the dominant near-term driver for the USD leg
Hourly close back above 0.69509 would ease the lower-high structure
Loss of 0.69219 opens the path toward the 0.6900 psych level
AUDUSD has fallen for a third session after the soft Q2 CPI print cut RBA August hike bets, failing repeatedly at the 0.7000 cap earlier in the week and now printing fresh lows near 0.6929. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with a clean lower-highs, lower-lows sequence since Tuesday's rejection. Downside momentum accelerated on the sharp NY-session drop through 0.6950, with RSI(14) pressing into weak territory.
Support: 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6949, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed drives the USD leg and could reshape this read
Break below 0.69219 confirms the next lower-low
H1 close back above 0.69490 would ease the downside pressure
AUD/USD has trended lower for three sessions after failing repeatedly at the 0.7000 psychological cap, with the soft Q2 CPI print undercutting August RBA hike bets. Price broke the mid-0.6970s shelf and pressed to a fresh session low at 0.69235; it now trades below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI sub-35. The 0.69509 prior swing is the nearest lower high to watch.
Support: 0.69235, 0.6910
Resistance: 0.69509, 0.6970, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 GMT could materially shift the USD leg and this read
Failure to hold 0.69235 opens the path toward the 0.6910 psych area
H1 close back above 0.69509 would break the run of lower highs
AUDUSD has trended lower for a third session, sliding from a rejected 0.7000 handle earlier in the week to a fresh two-week low at 0.69226 after yesterday's soft Q2 CPI miss cut RBA hike odds. Price sits pinned below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 35, and the latest leg broke the 0.6950 shelf that had capped the pullback. Momentum remains firmly to the downside into the FOMC decision.
Support: 0.69226, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69509, 0.6950, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read via the USD leg
H1 close back above 0.69500 would neutralise the fresh lower-low
Failure to hold 0.69226 opens the path toward the 0.6900 psych level
AUDUSD rolled over from the mid-week peak near 0.7010 and has trended lower since, with soft Q2 CPI undercutting the RBA hike case. The last two sessions saw an accelerated drop through the 0.6950 broken low into a fresh two-week low at 0.69226, leaving price well below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI in oversold territory. Momentum is stretched to the downside as the market squares into the FOMC decision.
Support: 0.69226, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6950, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision tonight (18:00 GMT) is the near-term driver — a dovish hold could unwind USD strength
H1 close back above 0.6950 broken low would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold 0.6920 session low confirms continuation toward 0.6900 psych
AUDUSD has trended lower all week, with the soft Q2 CPI print undercutting RBA hike bets and dragging price off the 0.7010 area toward a fresh week low at 0.6923. The latest NY-session candle broke sub-0.6950 and accelerated, holding well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pressed into oversold. Prior support at 0.6970 now caps rebounds.
Support: 0.69226, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6951, 0.6970, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision tonight is the near-term driver — a dovish read could squeeze AUD back toward 0.7000
H1 close back above 0.69700 would neutralise the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 0.69226 opens the path toward the 0.6900 psych level
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 42 · price 0.6949
Range break lower, consolidating above swing low.
AUDUSD held a 0.6970–0.7010 range through midweek before soft Q2 CPI drove a sharp NY-session flush that broke the floor and printed a two-week low at 0.6935. Price has since consolidated in a tight 0.6935–0.6955 band, well below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) recovering off oversold. The 0.6970 prior floor now caps and aligns with the 38.2% retracement of this week's drop.
Support: 0.6935, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 GMT tonight is the dominant near-term catalyst and could reset this read
H1 close back above 0.6970 invalidates the range-break-lower structure
Failure to hold 0.6935 confirms continuation to the 0.6900 round number
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing at lows · RSI 43 · price 0.6949
Lower highs, fresh weekly low.
AUDUSD broke down hard after the soft Q2 CPI print, slicing from the 0.7000 shelf to a weekly low at 0.69347 in a single session before stabilising. Price has since consolidated in a tight 0.694–0.6950 band below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) recovering off oversold but still sub-50. The 0.6959 prior high is capping the bounce; 0.7000 remains the dominant pivot overhead.
Support: 0.69347, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.6959, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision tonight is the dominant near-term driver for this read
H1 close above 0.6959 opens the path back toward the 0.7000 psych pivot
Failure to hold 0.694 range low confirms another lower low toward the week low at 0.69347
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, third day of losses · RSI 37 · price 0.69419
Lower highs, lower lows; testing week low.
AUDUSD extended lower all week and broke down hard through 0.69700 on the soft Q2 CPI print, printing a 0.69367 spike low before stalling near mid-0.6940s. Price sits well below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) pinned in the mid-30s; the 0.70000 psych cap and 50-day area have held above spot since Monday's open. The final tick is a thin, near-flat bar as the market squares up into tonight's FOMC.
Support: 0.69347, 0.69367
Resistance: 0.6952, 0.6970, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC tonight is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
H1 close below 0.69347 confirms a fresh lower-low and extends the breakdown
Reclaim of 0.69700 prior support would neutralise the week's downtrend
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 36 · price 0.69419
Series of lower highs and lower lows.
AUDUSD has trended lower since Tuesday, accelerating after the soft Q2 CPI print knocked the pair through 0.6970 in a single wide bar during the NY session. Price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) hugging the mid-30s, and rallies have been capped at 0.6955 while the 0.6935 swing low holds for now. Consolidation just above the lows precedes tonight's FOMC.
Support: 0.69347, 0.6920, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.69694
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT is the dominant near-term catalyst and can materially shift this read
H1 close below 0.6935 confirms a fresh lower-low and opens the 0.6920 psych level
Reclaim of 0.6955 session high would ease the downside pressure toward the 0.6970 breakdown zone
AUDUSD is in its third straight down leg after yesterday's soft Q2 CPI print, breaking prior support at 0.6950 during the NY session and printing a fresh swing low at 0.6937. Price has since consolidated in a tight sub-0.6945 band below a falling EMA20 near 0.6970. The 0.7000 psych cap held twice earlier this week before the roll-over.
Support: 0.6937, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6950, 0.6970, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision tonight is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 0.6970 (ema20) would neutralise the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 0.6937 swing low opens the path toward 0.6900 psych
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 37 · price 0.6943
Lower highs, lower lows.
AUDUSD has been offered all week and accelerated lower after Tuesday's soft Q2 CPI print, with the sharp drop below 0.6970 leaving price pinned in the mid-0.6900s. Bounces have stalled at the 0.6955 session high while price now grinds toward the 0.69367 swing low, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50 since the break. RSI(14) sits near 37, tracking the weakness without diverging.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6970
What it said to watch
FOMC decision tonight is the dominant catalyst — a hawkish hold could extend the break below 0.6937
H1 close back above 0.6970 would neutralise the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 0.6937 confirms continuation of the down-leg
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, third day of losses · RSI 32 · price 0.69412
Lower highs, lower lows.
AUDUSD has trended lower all week and accelerated after yesterday's soft Q2 CPI print, with a sharp NY-session drop through 0.6950 to a fresh two-week low near 0.6937. Price sits well below both EMA20 and EMA50, and RSI(14) is pressed near 31 as the pair grinds along the lows. The prior 0.6950 shelf now caps as resistance after the break.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6950
What it said to watch
FOMC decision tonight is the dominant catalyst — a hawkish hold could extend the break below 0.6950
H1 close back above 0.6950 would neutralise the breakout read
Failure to hold 0.69367 confirms continuation of lower lows
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 34 · price 0.69412
Lower highs and lower lows since midweek.
AUDUSD is in a third day of losses, accelerating lower after the soft Q2 CPI print gutted RBA hike premium and dragged price through the 0.69700 support into the NY session. The break to a fresh week low at 0.69367 held, but bounces have stalled below 0.69550 and price trades well under EMA20/EMA50. FOMC tonight is the dominant catalyst into the next bars.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6970
What it said to watch
FOMC decision tonight could materially shift this read
Hourly close back above 0.69700 broken support would neutralise the breakdown
Loss of 0.69367 week low confirms continuation toward the 0.69000 psych area
AUDUSD has pushed lower all week and accelerated after yesterday's soft Q2 CPI print, breaking the 0.6950 pivot and marking a fresh week low at 0.6937. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI near oversold, and the current bar prints just above the lows near 0.6940. The week opened around 0.6995 and every attempt back toward 0.6976 has faded.
Support: 0.6937, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6950, 0.6976
What it said to watch
FOMC decision tonight is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 0.6950 would neutralise the fresh downside break
Failure to hold 0.6937 confirms continuation toward the 0.6900 psych level
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, third day of losses · RSI 34 · price 0.6940
Lower highs, lower lows below EMAs.
AUDUSD has ground lower for a third straight session after yesterday's soft Q2 CPI print, breaking down through 0.6970 during NY hours and driving to a fresh week low near 0.6937. Price sits well below both EMAs with RSI(14) pressed into the low 30s, and the 0.7000 psych cap has repeatedly rejected rallies this week. Bounces have been shallow, with 0.6952 prior support now capping.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6940, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6952, 0.6994, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision tonight is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 0.6952 would ease the breakdown momentum
Loss of 0.6937 session low confirms continuation to the round 0.6900
AUDUSD has slid a second session after the soft Q2 CPI miss, breaking cleanly below the 0.6970 shelf that held earlier in the week and printing a fresh low at 0.69367. Price sits well under EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 38, and the bounce off the low is stalling into 0.6952. The 0.7000 handle / 50-dma has capped every attempt this week and remains the ceiling on the wider range.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.70108
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + Powell presser today (18:00/18:30 UTC) is the dominant near-term driver
H1 close back above 0.69700 would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold 0.69367 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
AUDUSD has trended lower since Monday's open, the G10 laggard after the Q2 CPI miss cooled RBA hike odds. A sharp NY-session drop through 0.6970 to 0.69367 marked the dominant leg of the week, and price now sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) pressing fresh lows near 0.6942. RSI(14) is subdued around 37 with no bullish divergence yet.
Support: 0.69367, 0.69405
Resistance: 0.6970
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today ~18:00 UTC is the dominant near-term USD driver and could reshape this read
H1 close below 0.69367 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 0.6970 psych level would neutralise the downside momentum
AUDUSD broke under the 0.6970 shelf that had underpinned price most of the week after a soft Q2 CPI print gutted the RBA August hike case, spiking down to 0.69367 before a shallow bounce stalled near 0.6959. Price trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) compressed around the high-30s, and the week's repeated failures at 0.7000 now cap from above. Move is consolidating just above the session low into the FOMC event.
Support: 0.69367, 0.69435
Resistance: 0.6959, 0.6970, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision ~18:00 UTC is the dominant driver — a dovish Warsh could hand AUD a relief bounce toward 0.7000
Hourly close back above 0.6970 would neutralise the breakdown read
Loss of 0.69367 session low confirms continuation lower
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, at weekly lows · RSI 42 · price 0.69467
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday.
AUDUSD has bled lower all week from Monday's 0.6995 open, with the sharp break through 0.6970 coming on the soft Q2 CPI miss that gutted the RBA hike case. Price marked a session low at 0.6937 before stabilising near 0.6947, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pinned in the low 40s. The 0.6957 session high has capped the bounce so far.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6970
What it said to watch
FOMC and Warsh presser tonight (~18:00 UTC) is the dominant driver and could reshape this read
Loss of 0.6937 cpi low confirms downtrend extension
Reclaim of the 0.6970 prior range flips the intraday structure
AUDUSD sold off sharply through the 0.6970 range floor into the session, dropping to 0.69367 after the softer Q2 CPI miss undercut RBA hike bets. Price is now consolidating in the 0.6946-0.6955 band, holding below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) recovering off oversold. The prior week range that capped near 0.7000 is now overhead resistance.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6946
Resistance: 0.6965, 0.6970, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today could materially shift this read
H1 close above 0.6970 invalidates the downside break
Failure to hold 0.69367 confirms a fresh lower low
Lower highs and lower lows, bouncing off session low.
AUDUSD spent the week capped below 0.7000 and the week high at 0.70108, then broke down hard as this morning's soft Q2 CPI miss (3.8% vs 4.0%) undercut the RBA hike case, printing a session low at 0.69367. Price has since stabilised into the 0.6952 area, holding above the cpi close near 0.6946 with RSI recovering off oversold. Prior support at 0.6970 now acts as the first resistance shelf overhead.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6946
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.70108
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today could materially shift this read
H1 close below 0.69367 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 0.6970 would neutralise the breakdown
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 40 · price 0.69569
Lower highs, broke week's support.
Aussie opened the week near 0.7005 and spent three sessions ranging 0.6965-0.7010 before the soft Q2 CPI miss knocked it through support, spiking to 0.69367 in the NY session yesterday. Price has since clawed back to 0.6957 but remains below both EMAs with RSI(14) around 40; the 0.6970 shelf that held all week is now the nearest resistance. FOMC today is the dominant swing factor from here.
Support: 0.6946, 0.69367
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.6970 neutralises the range-break read
Failure to hold 0.6946 confirms continuation toward the spike low
FOMC decision today (18:00 UTC) and Warsh guidance could materially shift this read
Range break lower, consolidating near session lows.
AUDUSD spent most of the week pinned in a 0.6970–0.7010 range before a sharp drop through 0.6970 on the softer-than-forecast Q2 CPI print flipped the tone lower. Price bottomed at 0.69367 and has since ground sideways in the 0.6946–0.6957 area, holding well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) basing near 39. The prior range floor at 0.6970 now caps as overhead resistance.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6920
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.70108
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 0.6970 would negate the range break
AUDUSD accelerated lower late in the session, breaking prior support with a sharp bar to 0.69367 after the softer Q2 CPI print undercut RBA hike bets. Price now sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), which capped every bounce toward 0.7000 earlier in the week. RSI(14) near 37 reflects the extended move, with the market consolidating just above the low into the FOMC decision.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6946
Resistance: 0.6969, 0.6996, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today 18:00 UTC — a hawkish USD outcome could extend the break below 0.69367
H1 close back above 0.69690 (prior low) would neutralise the breakout read
Failure to hold 0.69367 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
AUDUSD held a 0.6965–0.7010 range most of the week before the soft Q2 CPI print sliced it down to 0.69367 in a single H1 bar, closing the week's range break to the downside. Price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 33, and the 0.6970 shelf that was supporting spot has flipped to resistance. The 0.7000 psychological level and 50-DMA capped every attempt higher earlier in the week.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.70108
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 0.6970 invalidates the breakdown
Failure to hold 0.6940 confirms extension toward next support
AUDUSD opened the week near 0.7014 and tested the 0.7000 psych cap twice into mid-week but never cleared it, printing lower highs since. Soft Aussie CPI plus a risk-off tone drove a sharp break of the 0.6970 base in the latest session, dropping price to a fresh week low at 0.69367; it now sits near 0.6945 with RSI(14) pressed into oversold. Both EMA(20) and EMA(50) sit overhead and capped the earlier bounce attempts.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.70165
What it said to watch
FOMC today 18:00 UTC — a hold with dovish guidance could squeeze AUD back toward 0.7000
H1 close back above 0.6970 would neutralise the range-break read
Failure to hold 0.69367 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
AUDUSD has unwound the early-week test of 0.7000 into a clean downtrend, capped repeatedly at the 0.6970 shelf before a sharp break lower into the 0.6946 close on soft Aussie CPI and an AI/chip-led risk-off tone. The final impulse swept the 0.69367 session low and price sits well below both EMAs with RSI stretched near oversold. The 0.7000 psychological cap that rejected the week's rallies remains the pivot overhead.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.70165
What it said to watch
FOMC today (18:00 UTC) — a hawkish/hold outcome or dovish surprise materially shifts this read
H1 close back above 0.6970 would neutralise the fresh downside break
Loss of 0.69367 confirms lower-low continuation toward the 0.6900 psych area
AUDUSD spent the week pinned under 0.7000 before sliding through the 0.6962-0.6970 shelf, with the soft Q2 CPI miss (3.8% vs 4%) accelerating the drop to a fresh weekly low at 0.6937. Price now sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) cycling down into the mid-30s. The 0.6970 area that held as support this week is the first level to watch overhead.
Support: 0.6937, 0.6920
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.6983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.6937 confirms a lower-low and extends the range break
Reclaim of 0.6970 prior floor would negate the downside break
FOMC today 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
AUDUSD spent the week pinned in a 0.6960–0.7000 range under the psych level, then broke sharply lower after the soft Q2 CPI print (3.8% vs 4%), dropping to 0.6937 before stabilising near 0.6949. Price is now below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) into oversold territory, marking a decisive shift out of the week's consolidation. The 0.6970 prior-range floor now caps as resistance overhead.
Support: 0.6937, 0.6946
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.6970 would negate the range break
Failure to hold 0.6937 session low opens further downside
AUDUSD spent the week pinned under 0.7000 (psych/50-DMA cap) before a sharp CPI-driven flush on the latest bar drove it through the week's range floor to a session low at 0.69367. Price now sits below EMA20 (~0.6970) with RSI(14) pressed into the low 30s, confirming a lower low. The soft Q2 CPI read reinforced the RBA 'extended pause' narrative and left the Aussie the weakest driver on the board.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 0.69700 ema20 area would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold 0.69367 session low opens the path toward 0.6900 psych
FOMC ~16h out could materially shift this read via the USD leg
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 30 · price 0.69447
Broke below week's floor, fresh lower low.
AUDUSD opened the week near 0.7018 and spent four sessions pinned under 0.7000, repeatedly capped in the 0.6970-0.6980 zone. The Aussie snapped lower on the Q2 CPI print at the London-Asia transition, slicing through the week's 0.6970 floor and printing 0.69367 with RSI(14) dropping toward oversold. Price now trades well below both H1 EMAs after the impulsive break.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.70185
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 0.6970 would invalidate the breakdown and re-open the range
FOMC ~16h away could materially shift the USD leg of this read
Failure to hold 0.69367 extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.6900
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 45 · price 0.69692
Lower highs, basing above 0.6962.
AUDUSD has bled lower all week from the 0.7015 open, with Bullock's patient tone and a firmer USD dragging the pair sub-0.6970 and building a chain of lower highs. Price is now coiling in a tight 0.6962-0.6982 base, capped by EMA20/EMA50 overhead while RSI hovers in the mid-40s. The 0.6962 swing low is the pivot holding the week's decline together.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6965
Resistance: 0.6982, 0.7000, 0.7015
What it said to watch
Australia Q2 CPI at 01:30 GMT (~30min) is a binary re-pricing event that will drive the next leg
Hourly close below 0.6962 confirms a fresh lower-low and opens deeper downside
Reclaim of 0.7000 psych would neutralise the week's downtrend read
AUDUSD has trended lower since Monday's open, capped below the 0.7000 pivot after Bullock's patient tone and a firmer USD dragged the pair sub-0.6970. Price is now consolidating in a tight 0.6962–0.6975 band just off the week low, with RSI(14) mid-40s and both EMAs overhead. The 0.6983 prior high has capped every bounce this week.
Support: 0.69621, 0.69645
Resistance: 0.6983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Australia Q2 CPI at 01:30 GMT (~28min) is a binary re-pricing risk for this read
H1 close below 0.69621 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 0.7000 needed to negate the sub-0.7000 slide
FOMC ~16h later could materially shift the USD leg
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating · RSI 44 · price 0.69716
Lower highs, holding above swing low into CPI.
AUDUSD has bled lower since Monday's session open, rolling off the 0.7020 area and losing the 0.7000 psych level as Bullock's patient tone and a firm USD weighed. Price is now coiling around 0.6970 below EMA20 and EMA50, with demand stepping in twice near the 0.6962 swing low. RSI(14) sits in the low-40s, tracking the down-cycle without an extreme.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.6985, 0.7000, 0.7025
What it said to watch
Australia Q2 CPI at 01:30 GMT (~90min) is a binary re-pricing event that could reset this read
Hourly close below 0.6962 confirms a lower-low and opens deeper downside toward the psych 0.6960
Reclaim of 0.7000 needed to challenge the 50-dma cap at 0.7025
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 44 · price 0.69716
Lower highs, lower lows; basing sub-0.6975.
AUDUSD has trended lower all week, rolling off the 0.7020 area early and slipping below the 0.7000 psych level after Bullock's patient tone and a firmer USD dragged the pair sub-0.6970. Price is now pinned below EMA20 and EMA50, basing in a tight 0.6962–0.6983 band with RSI cycling in the low-40s. The 0.6962 swing low is the immediate floor, with 200-DMA support flagged just beneath.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6983, 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
Australia Q2 CPI at 01:30 GMT (~135min) is a binary re-pricing event that could reset this read
Hourly close back above 0.7000 psych would neutralise the downtrend structure
Failure to hold 0.6962 swing low opens the path toward 200-DMA support