Higher low at 80285 after the NY spike; sideways under 80830–81100.
BTC rallied from the Asian low at 75670 through London, then broke above the 79000 cap during NY hours as the services PMI misses landed on a soft USD, spiking to a session high at 81104. Since then price has consolidated between 79890 and 80830. The 79890 swing low held near the 38.2% of the breakout fib, and the 80285 higher low after the late high is now the nearest support.
Support: 80,285.00, 79,890.00, 79,000.00
Resistance: 80,830.00, 81,104.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80285 higher low breaks the late-session higher-low sequence
Loss of the 79890 swing low (38.2% breakout fib) puts the 79000 breakout level back in play
Close above the 80830 late high reopens a test of the 81104 session high
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and ULC are the next scheduled USD risk ahead of Friday NFP
23:32 UTC
Uptrend after NY spike, now consolidating · RSI 57 · price 80,388.47
Post-spike range 79,886–81,104; higher low vs lower high compressing.
The NY-open leg from 78.1k cleared the old 79k cap and peaked at the 81,104 spike high, extended as the 15:00 UTC ISM Services miss weighed on USD. Since then price has held a 79,886–81,104 range, with the swing low printing just above the 38.2% fib. A late-NY push met rejection at a lower high of 80,831 and is drifting back toward the 80,285 pullback low into the Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
What it said to watch
A close below the 80,285 pullback low exposes the 79,886 swing low and the higher-lows line
Losing 79,886 breaks the 38.2% fib hold and puts the 79k breakout level back in play
A close above the 80,831 lower high reopens the 81,104 spike high
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read
Range 79,886–81,104 after NY breakout; latest swing a lower high at 80,831.
BTC broke the ~79k cap during the NY session. The move spiked to 81,104 around the ISM Services miss, then settled into a consolidation that held the 38.2% fib near the 79,886 swing low. The late-NY push stalled at a lower high of 80,831, and price sits near 80,423 into the Asia session with RSI(14) around 57.
What it said to watch
A close above the 80,831 lower high reopens the 81,104 spike high
A break below the 80,285 pullback low snaps the rising lows line and exposes the 79,886 swing low and the 38.2% fib
Losing the 79,250 breakout bar low would turn the NY breakout into a false break
Any outbound movement from the hacker wallets is a headline shock that could override this structure
NY-open breakout, then 79,900–80,800 range; late high rejected.
BTC left the 78,000–78,700 London range at the NY open. It cleared the $79k cap cited in coverage and printed a spike high at 81,104 as the USD stayed heavy post-midterms. Since then it has consolidated between 79,900 and 80,800, with the swing low at 79,886 holding near the 38.2% of the breakout leg, and the late-NY push to the 80,831 late high met rejection into the Asia session, RSI(14) back near 55.
What it said to watch
Break below the 80,030 higher low exposes the 79,886 swing low and the 38.2% of the breakout leg
Loss of 79,886 shifts focus to the breakout bar zone near 79,477 and the 50% retracement
M15 close above the 80,831 late high reopens a test of the 81,104 spike high
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Uptrend, pressing post-breakout range top · RSI 64 · price 80,783.04
Post-spike consolidation 79,886–80,770, higher low at 80,032, late-NY push back to the range top.
The NY open lifted BTC out of the 78,000–78,500 London range, and the ISM Services miss extended the breakout leg to an 81,104 spike high, well past the 79k cap cited in the stale news digest. The consolidation that followed held the 79,886 swing low near the 38.2% retrace, then a higher low at 80,032 set up a late-NY push. That push is now testing the 80,660–80,770 range top, with RSI(14) near 64.
What it said to watch
Holding above the 80,660 range top keeps the 81,000 round number and the 81,104 spike high in play
A slip back below 80,660 returns price to the 79,900–80,660 consolidation
Losing the 80,032 higher low breaks rising support; a break of the 79,886 swing low undercuts the 38.2% retrace of the breakout leg
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed's Hammack at 13:50, ahead of Friday's NFP, could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Post-breakout consolidation, pressing range top · RSI 61 · price 80,584.25
NY-open impulse to 81,104, then a 79,886–80,690 range; higher lows since the 20:00 UTC low.
The NY open drove a 2,850-point surge from 78,250 to an 81,104 session high, clearing the $79k cap cited in coverage as the ISM Services miss landed. Price has since held a 79,886–80,690 range, with the swing low respecting the 38.2–50% retracement of the NY-open leg. The late-NY climb from the 80,030 higher low cleared the 80,290 pivot and the lower-highs line, and is now testing the range top with RSI(14) near 61.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 80,690 range top reopens the 81,104 session high
Losing the 80,290 pivot and the 80,030 higher low would send price back to the 79,886 swing low
A break of the 79,886 swing low would expose the 50% retracement of the NY-open leg near 79,676
Thin Asia session liquidity after the NY close can exaggerate moves at the range edges
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, the NFP preview, could shift this read
22:17 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in post-breakout range · RSI 52 · price 80,345.52
Range 79,886–80,690 below 81,104 session high, higher low at 80,032.
BTC broke above the ~$79k cap at the NY open and pushed to an 81,104 session high around the ISM Services miss. Since then it has ranged 79,886–80,690, holding above the 23.6% fib and the 80,000 psych level and printing a higher low at 80,032 late in the NY session, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79,886 swing low breaks the range and exposes the 79,477 breakout level
M15 close above the 80,690 range top reopens the 81,104 session high
Loss of the 80,032 higher low trendline returns price to the 80,000 psych level
Any movement in the hacker wallets is headline risk that could abruptly break this range
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could shift the read
NY spike to 81,104, now basing in a 79,890–80,290 range.
The NY open drove a breakout through the 79,000 breakout lvl, the cap cited in coverage, to an 81,104 session high, extending the rebound from the 75,671 Asian low despite mixed US data (ADP beat, ISM Services miss). Price has since retraced to the 38.2% fib near 79,970 and is ranging between the 79,886 ny low and the 80,290 range top around the 80,000 round number into the NY close, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79,886 ny low breaks the post-spike base and exposes the 50% fib near 79,620, then the 79,000 breakout lvl
Close above the 80,290 range top reopens 80,685 and the 81,104 session high
Any movement in the Binance hacker wallets is a headline risk during thin Asia session hours
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, followed by Fed's Hammack, could reset the range
Lower highs since the 81,104 session high, holding above the 79,886 swing low.
BTC rallied from the 75,671 Asia low to 78,250 through London. Early in the NY session, with USD sold broadly after the midterms, it broke through the 79k prior cap and spiked to an 81,104 session high. Since then, lower highs have pushed price back to the 79,886 swing low, with RSI(14) near 42 and price under EMA20 late in NY hours.
What it said to watch
Close below the 79,886 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 79,592 breakout bar high, then the 79k prior cap
Close above the 80,290 lower high and the lower-highs line breaks the post-spike drift; 80,685 range top above that
Any outbound movement from the hacker wallets is a headline shock that could override the structure
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs are the next scheduled USD risk ahead of Friday's NFP
The NY open broke the London range near 78,480 and spiked to the 81,104 NY high as USD stayed heavy after the midterms and ISM Services missed. Since then price has printed lower highs under the 80,685 range top, while the 79,890 swing low holds at the 38.2% fib of the 77,966–81,104 leg. RSI(14) is near 51 with price just under EMA20, late in NY hours.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79,890 swing low / 38.2% fib exposes the 79,036 breakout low
M15 close above the 80,290 lower highs trendline reopens the 80,685 range top and 81,104 NY high
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs could materially shift this read; hacker-wallet movement is an unscheduled headline risk
79,890–80,690 range with lower highs below the 81,104 spike high.
The 14:30 UTC NY open bar broke the 79,000 prior cap from the post-hack rebound. Price spiked to 81,104 by 15:15 UTC as USD sold off on the midterm result and soft ISM and S&P PMIs. Since then BTC has compressed in a 79,890–80,690 range with lower highs, and late-NY lows have held near the 38.2% retracement of the NY breakout fib, just under EMA20 around 80,100.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 79,890 swing low breaks the consolidation and exposes the 50% fib near 79,620, then the 79,000 prior cap.
A close above the lower highs line and the 80,690 range top reopens the 81,104 spike high.
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, followed by Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could shift the read during the next NY session.
Any outbound movement from the hacker wallets would be a direct headline shock to this range.
Lower highs from 80,661 after NY-open breakout through 79k.
The NY open lifted BTC out of its 78.1k–78.5k London range and through the psych 79k cap. The leg ran to an 81,104 session high around the ISM Services miss, then stalled. Since then, a descending sequence of lower highs from the 80,661 pullback hi has pressed price to a 79,886 swing low near the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 43 and price back under EMA20.
What it said to watch
A break of the 79,886 swing low extends the lower-high sequence and puts the fib 50% at 79,622 in play
An M15 close above the 80,290 lower high breaks the descending trendline; the 80,661 pullback hi is the next cap
Losing psych 79k would retrace most of the NY breakout leg back into the prior range
The 81,104 session high marks the top of the breakout; a reclaim invalidates the consolidation read
Any movement from the hacker wallets is an unscheduled headline risk that could gap price through these levels
Lower highs below 80,661 inside the 79,886–80,685 post-breakout box.
At the NY open, price broke out of the 78,140–78,690 London range and ran to a session high at 81,104 as USD sold off on the midterm result. That move fully reversed the Asia-session drop to 75,670. Late NY is fading in a sequence of lower highs from 80,661, with the 79,886 swing low holding just above the 38.2% level of the breakout fib (~79,970) and RSI(14) near 42.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 79,886 swing low exposes the 61.8% breakout fib near 79,270 and the 79,000 round number, the prior cap before the breakout
M15 close above 80,290 breaks the lower highs sequence and puts the 80,685 range top back in focus
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed's Hammack could shift USD tone and this read
NY-open breakout to 81,104, now fading in lower highs near the 38.2% fib.
NY open lifted price from 78,250 to an 81,104 session high, with the second leg landing on the ISM Services miss. Since then it has printed lower highs off the 80,661 lower high and dipped to a 79,886 swing low just under the 38.2% fib, now bouncing to 80,185 late in NY hours with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79,886 swing low exposes the 50% fib near 79,676 and the 79,000 round number, the former cap cited in coverage
Reclaim of the 80,661 lower high reopens the 81,104 session high
Any outbound movement from the hacker wallets is headline risk that could break the structure
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri NFP could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Uptrend off the Asia low, pulling back late NY · RSI 51 · price 80,035.86
Post-breakout consolidation lost its floor; lower highs through late NY.
BTC broke out of the 78,200–78,500 London range at the NY open and ran to a session high at 81,104 as USD was sold after the midterm results, then held an 80,115–80,685 consolidation. Late NY has slipped below that range floor to a swing low at 79,886, which sits around the 38.2% fib of the breakout leg (~79,970). RSI(14) has cooled to about 51.
What it said to watch
Holding below the 80,115 range floor extends the lower-high sequence; a reclaim puts the 80,685 range top back in view
A break of the 79,886 swing low exposes the 50% fib near 79,620 and the 79,000 round number
A move back under the london high at 78,688 would unwind the NY breakout
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri NFP (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
20:04 UTC
Post-breakout uptrend, pulling back · RSI 50 · price 79,983.92
NY impulse to 81,104, consolidation 80,050–80,685, range floor now giving way.
The NY session breakout from 78,250 ran to a 81,104 swing high, clearing the 79k cap as USD stayed heavy post-midterms and US data came in mixed (ADP beat, PMIs missed). Price then held an 80,050–80,685 consolidation with lower highs off the swing high. The latest bars slipped through the range floor to 79,892, testing the fib 38.2 of the 77,966–81,104 leg, with RSI(14) back near 50.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below 79,892 (fib 38.2) exposes the 79,592 breakout bar high and the 50% retracement near 79,535
A reclaim of 80,048 puts price back inside the range, with the range top at 80,685 as the next cap
A move above the lower-highs line and 81,104 would resume the breakout leg
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and Fed's Hammack could shift USD tone into Friday's NFP
Any outbound movement from the hacker wallets is a headline supply risk
The NY-open surge cleared the $79k prior cap and ran to an 81,104 session high around the soft ISM Services and S&P PMI misses. That move retraced the whole Asia-session drop to 75,671. Since then a run of lower highs off the 80,685 range top has worked price back to the 80,000 round number late in NY hours, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below EMA20.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,000 round number exposes the 23.6% fib near 79,820 and the 79,000 prior cap, which sits at the 38.2% retracement
Close above the 80,685 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 81,104 session high
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs, or any movement in the hacker wallets, could materially shift this read
Post-breakout range 80048–80690 capped under the 81104 session high.
NY open broke the 78.1k–78.5k London range. The 15:00 UTC ISM Services miss and a heavy USD then carried price to an 81104 session high. Through NY hours price has compressed between the 80048 range floor and the 80690 range top, holding above the fib 38.2 of the 77966–81104 leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 80,048.00, 79,905.00, 79,477.00
Resistance: 80,690.00, 81,104.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80048 range floor exposes the fib 38.2 at 79905 and the breakout bar high at 79477
M15 close above the 80690 range top reopens the 81104 session high
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labour costs are the next scheduled USD catalyst into Friday NFP
19:17 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after NY breakout · RSI 51 · price 80,222.65
Post-breakout range 80,048–80,685 below 81,104 spike high.
BTC rebounded from the 75,671 Asia session low, then the NY open broke the 78.1k–78.7k range and the move extended to the 81,104 spike high on the ISM Services miss. Late in the NY session price is compressing in an 80,048–80,685 range. The latest dip set a new range low at 80,048 with RSI(14) near 51, still above the 38.2% fib of the breakout leg near 79,970.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,048 range low exposes the 38.2% fib near 79,970 and the breakout top at 79,478
Reclaim of the 80,685 range high puts the 81,104 spike high back in play
Thin Asia session ahead; hacker-wallet movement headlines are an unpriced supply risk that could break the range
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs could materially shift this read
19:04 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating after impulse · RSI 59 · price 80,275.59
Post-breakout range 80,115–80,685 below 81,104 spike high.
Price broke through 79,000 at 14:30 UTC and printed an 81,104 spike high as the ISM Services and S&P PMI misses added to USD selling. Since then BTC has ranged between 80,115 and 80,685 into late NY hours, holding between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the breakout leg, with RSI(14) cooled to about 59.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,115 range low exposes the 38.2% fib near 79,970 and the 79,036 pullback low
Close above the 80,685 range high reopens the 81,104 spike high
Loss of the 79,036 pullback low puts the 78,688 london high back in play and unwinds most of the breakout
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims, Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC or movement in the hacker wallets could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after NY breakout · RSI 60 · price 80,304.56
Tight post-breakout range below NY high.
NY open lifted BTC from 78,250 through the 79k pivot to an 81,104 NY high. The move extended on the soft ISM Services print as the USD stayed heavy. Late in the NY session price is holding an 80,115–80,690 consolidation between range low and range top, above the 38.2% fib (~79,970), with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR(14) about $310.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,115 range low and 38.2% fib (~79,970) exposes the 79k pivot
Close above the 80,690 range top puts the 81,104 NY high back in play
Highs at the range top are edging lower (80,685 to 80,661), with supply capping the consolidation
Loss of the 79k pivot opens the 78,688 london high, the base of the NY leg
18:33 UTC
Impulsive uptrend, now pausing · RSI 62 · price 80,541.30
Post-breakout consolidation under spike high, lower highs.
Around the NY open, BTC broke out of a 78,140–78,480 range and cleared the 79,000 resistance at the 79,480 breakout bar. It extended to a 81,104 spike high as USD stayed offered after the ISM Services miss. Since then, after London close, price has compressed between a 80,115 range low and a 80,770 range top, with lower highs pressing in and RSI(14) cooling from overbought.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 80,770 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 81,104 spike high
Failure to hold the 80,115 range low exposes the fib 38.2% near 79,970 and the 79,480 breakout level
A return below 79,480 would turn the breakout into a false break
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed's Hammack are the next scheduled USD catalysts
Price broke through the 79k pivot during the first hour of NY as softer US services PMIs kept USD offered. That leg extended the recovery from the Asia low at 75,671 to an 81,104 session high. After London close, price has held a tight 80,116–80,685 range with a flat consolidation low and EMA20 trailing below. RSI(14) is near 67 and cooling, and the 38.2% fib of the Asia low–NY high leg sits near the 79k pivot.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,116 range low exposes the 79k pivot and the 38.2% fib
Close above the 80,685 range top puts the 81,104 session high back in play
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs are the next scheduled pre-NFP USD driver
Spike to 81,104 then range 80,116–80,685, lower highs.
Price broke the 78,140–78,480 midday range at the NY open. The 15:00 UTC ISM Services miss and a softer post-midterm USD drove the breakout leg through $79k to a 81,104 spike high. Since then price has held a 80,116–80,685 consolidation after London close, with the pullback low tested twice, lower highs and RSI(14) cooled to ~65.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,116 pullback low breaks the consolidation and exposes the 38.2% fib near 79,905
M15 close above the 80,685 lower high reopens the 81,104 spike high
Any on-chain movement from the stolen-coin wallets could materially shift this read
17:47 UTC
Impulsive breakout, now consolidating · RSI 63 · price 80,314.55
Post-spike range 80,116–80,685 below 81,104 high.
Early NY broke the 78.1–78.5k range and ran to the 81,104 spike high, extending on the soft ISM Services and S&P PMI misses and post-midterm USD weakness. Since then, after London close, price has held a 80,116–80,685 range, sitting between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the breakout leg, with RSI(14) cooled to ~63.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,116 range low exposes the 38.2% fib near 79,972, then the 79k pivot
Close above the 80,685 range top reopens the 81,104 spike high
Hacked-wallet transfers or ETF-flow headlines could break the range either way
17:33 UTC
Impulsive uptrend, now consolidating below the high · RSI 66 · price 80,389.47
Post-breakout range 80116–80685 with lower highs off 81104.
NY session broke the 78140–78480 midday range as the soft ISM Services and S&P PMI prints hit the dollar, a ~2,900-dollar breakout leg that cleared the 79k pivot and set a session high at 81104. Since then price has held a tight 80116–80685 band, with a lower high capping and a higher low at 80217 well above the 38.2% retrace of the move.
Support: 80,216.66, 80,115.77
Resistance: 80,685.14, 81,103.68
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80116 swing low breaks the consolidation and exposes the 79k pivot
Close above the 80685 lower high reopens the 81104 session high
Movement of hacked-coin wallets or ETF flow headlines could override the intraday structure
17:17 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating after NY spike · RSI 65 · price 80,245.63
Post-breakout range 80,116–80,685 below 81,104 session high.
The NY open broke the 78,070–78,510 pre-NY range, and the move extended to an 81,104 session high on the ISM Services miss as USD slid. Price has since compressed between the 80,116 swing low and an 80,685 lower high, holding well above the 79,592 breakout area, where EMA20 (~79,660) and the 50% NY impulse fib cluster.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,116 swing low opens the 79,592 breakout zone and the 50% NY impulse fib
Close above the 80,685 lower high puts the 81,104 session high back in play
Loss of 79,592 returns focus to the 78,688 prior high, the old pre-NY ceiling
Hacked-wallet transfers or ETF flow headlines could abruptly shift this read
17:04 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after NY spike · RSI 71 · price 80,479.37
NY session breakout above 79,000; tight 80,115–80,685 range under the 81,104 session high.
The Asia low at 75,671 gave way to a steady London recovery to a 78,688 prior high, then NY broke the 79,000 breakout level in two bars, alongside soft ISM Services/S&P PMIs and a weaker USD after the midterm sweep. Since the 81,104 session high, price has held a tight range between the 80,116 spike low and the 80,685 micro high; RSI(14) has cooled to ~71.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,116 spike low opens a retest of the 79,000 breakout level, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia-low rally
Close above the 80,685 micro high puts the 81,104 session high back in play
Loss of the rising trendline from the Asia low near 79,100 would break the intraday HL chain
Any on-chain movement of the hacked-coin wallets or ETF flow headlines could materially shift this read
16:47 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating after vertical leg · RSI 74 · price 80,587.25
NY-open breakout from 78.1k–78.5k base, tight range below session high.
BTC broke out of its 78.1k–78.5k London base at the NY open, cleared the 79k resistance and the london high at 78,688, and ran to a session high of 81,103. The move came as USD sat on the back foot after the midterm sweep and soft ISM Services/PMI prints. Since London close, price has held a 80,115 pullback low near the 38.2% of the breakout leg fib and is compressing under a lower high at 80,685, with RSI(14) cooling to ~73.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,685 lower high reopens the 81,103 session high
Loss of the 80,115 pullback low exposes the 79,592 breakout bar high and the deeper breakout leg fib
Retracement back under the 78,688 london high would negate the breakout read
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labour costs are the next macro test after an ADP beat
16:32 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below the session high · RSI 73 · price 80,491.36
Impulsive breakout leg, tight consolidation with lower highs under 81,103.
BTC broke out of the 78,140–78,480 London range at the NY equity open and ran to an 81,103 session high as the ISM Services and S&P PMI misses hit. Since then it has consolidated, holding the 80,115 pullback low above the 80,000 round number, while a lower high at 80,685 caps price and RSI(14) cools to about 73.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,685 lower high reopens the 81,103 session high
Failure to hold the 80,115 pullback low and the 80,000 round number exposes the 79,477 breakout bar high (break bar hi)
Movement in the hacked-coin wallets or a repeat of ETF outflows could quickly unwind the breakout leg
NY-open range break; pullback holding above breakout level, lower high capping.
BTC broke out of the 78,140–78,480 midday range at the NY open and ran to an 81,104 session high, with the ISM Services and S&P PMI misses softening USD. That completes a full recovery from the Asia-session drop to 75,671. The pullback low at 80,116 held above the 38.2% fib, and price is now consolidating below the 80,769 lower high, with RSI(14) cooling to about 72.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,116 pullback low opens a deeper test of the 38.2% fib near 79,970 and the 79,477 breakout level
Loss of the breakout level 79,477 puts the old range top at 78,480 back in play and weakens the breakout read
Reclaim of the 80,769 lower high shifts focus back to the 81,104 session high
Any on-chain movement from the hacked-coin wallets or ETF-flow headlines could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the Asian low; NY range break, now consolidating above 80,100.
The NY open broke the London range (range top 78,688) and cleared $79k. Soft S&P and ISM services PMIs and a heavier USD helped the move extend to an 81,104 session high. Price is now basing above the 80,116 pullback low, inside the 23.6–38.2% band of the breakout leg fib, with RSI(14) cooling to ~73 and ATR expanded near 407.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,116 pullback low opens the 38.2% fib near 79,970 and the 79,592 breakout leg high
Return inside the range below the 78,688 range top would mark the NY move as a false break
Close above the 80,769 lower high, then the 81,104 session high, resumes the HH chain
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and any transfers from hacked-coin wallets could materially shift this read
NY breakout from London range, first pullback forming.
The NY open broke the 78,070–78,690 range that capped the late-London session. The move cleared the 79,000 post-hack resistance and ran to an 81,104 session high, extending as soft ISM Services and S&P PMI prints hit USD. Price has since printed a lower high at 80,769 and is holding the 80,153 pullback low, just above the fib 38.2 of the NY leg near 79,970.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,153 pullback low exposes the fib 38.2 at 79,970 and the 80,000 round number
Reclaim of the 80,769 lower high puts the 81,104 session high back in play
A return below the 78,690 london high would negate the NY breakout
Transfers from the hacked-coin wallets or a fresh ETF outflow headline could shift this read quickly
15:32 UTC
Uptrend, vertical NY impulse stalling below high · RSI 79 · price 80,532.31
Higher lows off 75,670 overnight low; pre-NY 77,970–78,690 range broken.
The first hour of NY broke the 77,970–78,690 pre-NY range. The ISM Services miss at 15:00 UTC and a softer post-midterm USD then extended the leg through $79k to a session high at 81,104, where the 15:15 bar left an upper wick. RSI(14) sits near 79 after the vertical move, and the 50% retrace of the NY impulse lines up with the pre-ISM hi at 79,592.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,280 spike low exposes the 79,592 pre-ISM hi and the 50% retrace of the NY impulse
M15 close above the 81,104 session high resumes the impulse leg
Failure to hold the 78,688 london high returns price to the pre-NY range and negates the breakout
Hacked-wallet transfers or ETF flow headlines could materially shift this read; Thu 13:30 UTC claims/ULC are the next scheduled test
15:17 UTC
Uptrend, vertical impulse into NY · RSI 82 · price 80,792.03
London high broken at NY open, higher-low chain from Asian low.
BTC cleared the 78,688 London high at the NY open and ran to an 80,910 session high in the first hour of NY. The extension came on the 15:00 UTC ISM Services miss, with USD already soft after the midterm result. RSI(14) near 82 is stretched after two $1k+ bars, and the 79,000 area that capped the post-hack range now sits below price.
What it said to watch
A hold above the 14:45 high at 79,592 keeps the breakout bar structure intact
A pullback to the 79,036 pullback low, near the 61.8% fib of the impulse, tests whether the move holds
A return below the 78,688 London high would turn the move into a false break
A close above the 80,910 session high and the 81,000 round number extends the impulse
Any on-chain movement of the hacked BTC wallets is a headline supply risk that could reverse this read quickly
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims are the next scheduled USD catalyst ahead of Friday's NFP
15:04 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive breakout at NY open · RSI 72 · price 79,317.65
HH/HL chain off the Asia session low; NY-open range break above the London high.
NY open delivered a range break above the 78,690 London high. BTC spiked to a 79,592 session high and cleared the $79k area cited in coverage, with RSI(14) near 72 and ATR expanding. The HH/HL chain off the 75,670 Asia session low is intact, with the 79,036 pullback low the first reference below and the rising-lows trendline near 78,650.
What it said to watch
ISM Services (15:00 UTC, f/c 54.8) prints into the current bar and could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 79,036 pullback low puts a retest of the 78,690 London high in play
Losing the 78,690 London high and the rising-lows trendline would mark the breakout as a false break, exposing the 38.2% fib near 78,094 and the 77,966 swing low
Acceptance above the 79,592 session high opens the 80,000 round number
HH/HL from Asia low; London high broken on NY open.
The NY open bar at 14:30 UTC ran about 1,230 points through the london high at 78,688 to a spike high at 79,477. That cleared the 79,000 round number cited as resistance in coverage, extending the HH/HL chain and rising support from the 75,670 Asia-session low. The breakout followed the ADP beat (86K vs 69K f/c), and the first bar after it is holding near 79,300 with RSI(14) at 66. Coverage reads the rebound as short-covering rather than fresh demand.
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 14:45 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8): a hot print with firm prices paid could test the breakout
M15 close back below the 79,000 round number and the 78,688 london high would mark a false break
Rejection at the 79,477 spike high keeps price capped below the 80,000 psych level
Return into the 78,250 pre-ny range would put the 38.2% retrace of the 75.7k-79.5k move near 78,020 in focus
A break of rising support from the Asia low ends the HH/HL sequence
14:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below day high · RSI 49 · price 78,436.62
Tight 78140–78480 range after day-high rejection.
The Asia session flush to 75,670 was fully reversed through London. The day high at 78,688 was rejected at the London-NY transition, and the pullback held the 23.6% fib near 77,966. Since then price has compressed in a 78,140–78,480 range into early NY, with little reaction to the 13:15 UTC ADP beat and RSI(14) neutral near 49.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78,480 range top reopens the 78,688 day high, with 79k psych beyond
Loss of the 78,140 range low exposes the 23.6% fib at 77,966; a break there signals a deeper retracement of the Asia-low rally
S&P Global PMI at 14:45 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) are the next range-break risk; a hot print firms yields
14:17 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, stalling below session high · RSI 44 · price 78,306.76
Lower high under 78,688, compressing in a 78,140–78,480 band.
Price recovered all of the Asia session flush to 75,671 during London and ran into rejection at the 78,688 session high, then dropped to a 77,966 swing low. Since the ADP beat early in NY, price has held in a 78,140–78,480 band below that lower high, with RSI(14) near 44 and price just under EMA20.
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 14:45 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 78,480 lower high reopens the 78,688 session high, with the 79,000 psych level beyond
Failure to hold the 78,140 intraday low exposes the 77,966 swing low and keeps the lower-high sequence intact
The Asia-session flush to 75,671 reversed into a London rally that topped at the 78,688 session high. Rejection there dropped price to a 77,966 swing low, near the 23.6% retracement of the Asia low-high fib. Into NY open, price is boxed between 78,225 and 78,480 with a lower high in place, and the ADP beat barely moved it.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 78,225 box low exposes the 77,966 swing low and 23.6% fib
Close above the 78,480 lower high breaks the lower highs line and reopens 78,688 session high, then 79,000 psych
S&P PMI at 14:45 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC are due within the hour and could resolve the box
V-shaped recovery off 75,671, consolidating below 78,688 session high.
The overnight midterm-results drop to 75,671 fully reversed through Asia and London. The rally met rejection at the 78,688 session high, and the pullback to the 77,966 swing low held near the 23.6% level of the recovery fib. Price is now coiling between a 78,068 higher low and a 78,480 lower high in the first hour of NY, with the ADP-timed bars contained so far.
What it said to watch
A close above the 78,480 lower high reopens the 78,688 session high and the 79,000 round number
Failure to hold the 78,068 higher low and the 77,966 swing low breaks the rising support and the higher-low sequence
S&P Global PMI at 14:45 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) could materially shift this read
Higher low held at 77,966; coiling in 78,068–78,480 band.
The overnight slide on midterm results bottomed at 75,670 during Asia hours and was fully retraced through London. Price topped at a 78,688 session high and was rejected into the London-NY transition. The pullback held the 77,966 swing low, at the 23.6% recovery fib and near the prior-day 78,000 high. Price is now coiling between the 78,068 range low and the 78,480 range high as ADP lands, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 77,966 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 77,673 pivot low
Close above the 78,480 range high reopens the 78,688 session high, with 79,000 psych above
ADP (13:15 UTC), S&P PMI (14:45) and ISM Services (15:00, f/c 54.8) could resolve the band; the digest flags strong prints as a USD-firming headwind capping BTC
13:17 UTC
V-shaped recovery uptrend, stalling below the session high · RSI 53 · price 78,281.79
HH/HL chain broken by the 12:15 UTC drop under 78,240; lower high at 78,480, swing low 77,966 holding.
The overnight flush to 75,670 during midterm results was fully retraced through Asia and London, topping at a session high of 78,688 at 11:45 UTC before a rejection cut through the 78,240 higher low. The retest held the 77,966 swing low at the 23.6% fib, and price now sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) at 52, capped by a 78,480 lower high as ADP lands at the start of NY hours.
What it said to watch
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could push range expansion well beyond the ~196-point ATR
An M15 close above the 78,480 lower high reopens the 78,688 session high and the 79,000 psych level
Failure to hold the 77,966 swing low breaks the 23.6% fib hold and exposes the fib 38.2 at 77,535
Higher lows off the 75,670 Asia low; pullback held the 78,000 retest.
BTC flushed to 75,670 during the Asia session as midterm results landed, then London took out the Asian range top and printed a session high at 78,688. The 12:15 UTC drop held a 77,966 pullback low near the 23.6% retrace and the 78,000 prior high. Price sits just under the EMA20 with RSI(14) near 50 going into the London-NY transition.
What it said to watch
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Break of the 77,966 pullback low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the fib 38.2 at 77,535
Close above the 78,688 session high reopens the 79,000 round number
Loss of the rising support from the 75,670 Asia low invalidates the intraday uptrend read
12:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 49 · price 78,243.83
V-reversal off overnight low, HH/HL chain into London, first sharp pullback held.
BTC V-reversed from the 75,670 overnight low as midterm results landed in Asia, then built higher highs through London to a 78,688 session high. The 12:00 UTC drop found demand at the 77,966 swing low, a retest of the broken 78,000 prior high near the 23.6% fib. The bounce is capped so far at 78,301 bounce high, with RSI(14) back near 49 and price below EMA20.
What it said to watch
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (both strong-data risks for BTC) could materially shift this read in the NY session
Close below the 77,966 swing low breaks the HL chain and puts the 77,673 asia pivot in play
Close above the 78,301 bounce high reopens the 78,688 session high, with the 79,000 psych level above
V-shaped rebound from 75,670 Asia low; rejection at the 78,688 session high, then a higher low at 77,966.
The overnight slide around the midterm results bottomed at 75,670 in the Asia session and reversed into a V-shaped recovery. London cleared the Asian range high near 78,086 and printed a session high at 78,688, then a sharp drop held the 23.6% retracement at the 77,966 pullback low. Late in London, price is pivoting just under the ema20 near 78,275 with RSI(14) neutral around 53 ahead of ADP.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 78,688 session high puts the 79,000 psych level in play
Loss of the 77,966 pullback low exposes the fib 38.2 at 77,536
A break of rising support from the 75,670 low ends the higher-low recovery structure
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, rejection at session high · RSI 37 · price 78,002.10
V-recovery from Asia low; London HH/HL chain broken, retesting prior high.
BTC fell to a 75,670 Asia low as the midterm results landed, then rebounded through London to a 78,688 session high, clearing the 78,000 prior high. The 12:00 UTC bar rejected the session high and broke the London rising trendline. Price is now retesting 78,000, where the prior high meets the 23.6% fib of the Asia low to session high move.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 78,000 prior high exposes the 77,673 swing low and the 77,535 fib 38.2
A close back above the 78,300 pivot repairs the rejection and reopens the session high, then the 79,000 round number
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
12:04 UTC
Uptrend, first pullback off session high · RSI 57 · price 78,470.58
V-recovery from 75,670 Asia low; higher lows intact, 78,003 prior high reclaimed.
The overnight slide to 75,670 around the midterm results fully reversed as the dollar sold off on the Democrats' sweep. London cleared the 78,003 prior high and stretched to a 78,688 session high, where the 11:45 UTC bar was rejected back to 78,450. RSI(14) has cooled to the high 50s, with price still above a rising EMA20 near 78,320.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 78,240 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 78,003 prior high back in play
M15 close above the 78,688 session high reopens the 79,000 round number
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC: strong prints firming yields and the USD could stall the recovery
On-chain movement from the hacker wallets would undercut the rebound from the 75,670 low
V-recovery from 75,670; higher lows grinding into session high.
The midterm-night flush to 75,670 at 03:00 UTC, as the Democratic sweep landed, reversed in a V through the Asia session. Price cleared the prior high at 78,003 before London. London has since stepped up in shallow higher lows to a 78,674 session high, with bar ranges compressing and RSI(14) near 67 below the 79,000 round number.
What it said to watch
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; strong prints firm USD and yields
Break of the rising lows line, then the 78,240 london low, ends the intraday higher-low chain
M15 close back below the 78,003 prior high puts the breakout in question and exposes the 38.2% fib of the rebound near 77,527
Session high at 78,674 and the 79,000 round number are the areas to watch for rejection or break
V-recovery from Asia flush; HH/HL chain above prior-day high.
The Asia-session flush to 75,671 on the midterm shock fully reversed, and the move cleared the prior high near 78,003 into London. Price is now pressing the session high at 78,655 along a rising trendline, with a higher low at 78,465 and RSI(14) near 66, short of stretched.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 78,465 higher low would break the HH/HL chain
Failure to hold the 78,241 swing low reopens the 78,003 prior high
Acceptance above the 78,655 session high puts the 79,000 psych cap in play
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
V-recovery from overnight low, HH/HL chain stalling below session high.
The overnight rally retraced all of the midterm-driven Asia selloff to 75,670, broke the 78,003 prior high and set a London session high at 78,655. Price is now holding in a tight 78,465–78,600 band below that high, RSI(14) near 68 and cooling, with the 78,240 swing low as the nearest higher low.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 78,240 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 78,003 prior high back in play
Clearance of the 78,655 session high exposes the 79,000 psych level, the cap flagged in the digest
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Holding above 78,000 keeps the overnight rally intact; a slip back under it shifts the read back to the prior 77,000–78,000 range
The overnight midterm-results flush to 75,670 in the Asia session has fully reversed, with the asia pivot at 77,673 holding before London broke the prior high at 78,003. Mid-London, the higher low at 78,241 and a rising trendline frame a clean HH/HL chain into a 78,655 session high, and RSI(14) at about 66 is warm but not stretched.
What it said to watch
A close below the 78,241 higher low breaks the intraday HH/HL chain
Loss of the 78,003 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
A push through the 78,655 session high puts 79,000 psych resistance in play
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC are the next USD risk. A strong print could cap the recovery
Rising trendline from 77,970 is the first structural support on a pullback
10:47 UTC
Uptrend after overnight V-recovery · RSI 64 · price 78,475.58
Higher lows above 78k, session high 78,655 capping.
The overnight Democratic midterm sweep drove a flush to 75,670 in early Asia, then a V-shaped recovery reclaimed the prior high at 78,003. London extended above the Asian high at 78,086 to a session high of 78,655, with a micro HL line off 78,241 and 78,323 intact and RSI(14) near 64, not stretched.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 78,241 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of 78,086 asian high and 78,003 prior high puts the 23.6% fib near 77,950 in play
Clean break of the 78,655 session high opens the 79,000 psych level
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the overnight low, London above prior high.
The overnight midterm-result drop to 75,670 fully reversed in a V. London cleared the 78,003 prior high and printed a 78,582 session high, with RSI(14) near 66 and the rising trend from the 77,673 higher low intact.
What it said to watch
Close below the 78,240 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trend line
Loss of the 78,003 prior high reopens 77,673 higher low and the 38.2% fib of the overnight leg near 77,470
Session high 78,582 and the 79,000 round number are the levels to watch for rejection or break
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the 03:00 UTC low; prior high 78,000 broken.
The midterm-driven slide to 75,670 during the Asia session has fully reversed. The overnight rally cleared yesterday's 78,000 prior high, and London is printing a fresh session high near 78,535 on a higher-low trendline. RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not stretched.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 78,240 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the intraday HL chain
Loss of the 78,000 prior high returns price into yesterday's range
79,000 psych, the cap flagged in the digest, is the area to watch for rejection or break
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
V-shaped recovery from the overnight low into an HH/HL chain; tight range under the session high.
BTC fell to 75,671 overnight as midterm results landed. It then recovered the whole move through Asia and into London, clearing the prior high at 78,003 and posting a session high at 78,512. The last two hours have stalled in a 78,240–78,512 band, with price sitting on rising support from 77,828 and RSI(14) cooling into the low 60s.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 78,240 micro low breaks the rising support and the HL chain
A move back under the 78,003 prior high puts the breakout in question and brings the fib 38.2 at 77,427 into view
Clearance of the 78,512 session high opens the path to psych 79k, where supply capped the earlier bounce
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC: strong prints firming USD could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Uptrend, RSI near 70 · RSI 69 · price 78,410.65
Higher-high/higher-low chain off the 75,670 Asia low; London holding above the prior high at 78,000.
The midterm results drove an Asia-session flush to 75,670, which was fully reversed into London. Price cleared the prior high near 78,000 and set a session high at 78,512, holding above a rising intraday trendline with RSI(14) near 69.
What it said to watch
A close below the 78,240 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 78,000 prior high reopens the fib 38.2 near 77,427
A break of the 78,512 session high puts the 79,000 psych level in play
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read through USD and yields
V-shaped recovery with a higher-low chain, compressing under the session high.
The Asia-session slide on the midterm results bottomed at 75,670 and has fully reversed. Price reclaimed the 78,000 prior high into London open through a clean higher-low chain, with the rising support line intact. Progress is now stalling under the 78,447 session high, with three capped highs and RSI(14) cooling to about 67.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 78,000 prior high turns the reclaim into a false break and exposes the 77,673 swing low
A loss of the 78,240 micro low and the rising support line ends the higher-low sequence
A clearance of the 78,447 session high opens the path to the 79,000 round number
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 71 · price 78,374.69
V-shaped reversal from Asia low, higher lows since 03:00 UTC, flagging under the session high.
The midterm-results slide to 75,670 in the Asia session has been fully retraced. Early London lifted price through the 78,003 prior high to a session high at 78,448, with a softer USD on lower post-election yields as the backdrop. Price is now holding a tight 78,267–78,448 band with RSI(14) near 71.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 78,267 london low breaks the consolidation and puts the 78,003 prior high up for a retest
Loss of rising support near 78,000 and the 77,673 swing low would undo the higher-low chain from the overnight reversal
A break above the 78,448 session high exposes the 79,000 psych level
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
V-shaped recovery from the Asia low, HH/HL chain through London.
Asia session flushed to 75,670 as US midterm results landed, then reversed in a full V. London open broke the 78,003 prior high, and price is now compressing just under the 78,447 session high with RSI(14) near 66, having slipped below the steeper rally trendline slope.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 78,003 prior high would turn the London breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 78,447 session high leaves the 79,000 round number as the next reference
Loss of the 78,267 swing low breaks the London HH/HL chain, with the fib 38.2 at 77,387 the deeper reference
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The midterm-driven slide bottomed at the 75,670 Asia low. A V-shaped recovery has since cleared yesterday's 78,003 prior high, and London has stretched the HH/HL chain to a 78,448 session high. RSI(14) near 76 is hot but not extreme, and the latest higher low at 78,267 sits on the rising trendline.
What it said to watch
A break below the 78,267 higher low and the rising trendline ends the HH/HL chain
An M15 close back under the 78,003 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break and bring the 77,673 swing low back into focus
79,000 (79k psych) is the next reference above the session high; the digest flags supply capping there
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Higher highs and higher lows since the 75,670 Asia low; prior high broken.
The midterm-driven flush to 75,670 in early Asia has fully reversed. Price cleared yesterday's 78,003 prior high and set a 78,425 session high into the London open. Higher lows at 77,673 and 77,970 hold the rising trendline intact. RSI(14) near 75 is hot but not extreme.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 78,003 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 77,970 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 77,673 higher low
A break of the rising trendline would put the post-low fib 38.2% near 77,370 back in play
79,000 round number is the next cap above the 78,425 session high
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from the Asia session low, London breaking the Asian high.
The selloff on the overnight midterm results bottomed at 75,671 in the Asia session and has fully reversed. Early London cleared the Asian high at 78,086 and the 78,003 pre-drop top, printing a session high at 78,425. Higher lows hold along the rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 77: hot, but not extreme for a trend.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 78,086 Asian high would mark the London push as a false break
Loss of the 77,970 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
79,000 psych level is the next resistance, capping per the digest; area to watch for rejection or break
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
08:03 UTC
V-shaped recovery, higher highs since 03:00 UTC · RSI 69 · price 78,110.98
Broke above prior NY high, retesting 78,000 at London open.
The Asia session fully reversed the midterm-result flush to 75,670, with price clearing the prior high near 78,000 and printing a 78,308 Asia high at 07:15 UTC. The 07:45 UTC dip held 77,970 into London open with RSI(14) near 69. A deeper pullback meets the swing low at 77,673 (23.6% retracement) and the 38.2% fib at 77,300.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 78,000 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Clearance of the 78,308 Asia high opens the path to the 79,000 round number, where supply capped the last bounce
Loss of the 77,673 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib at 77,300
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Higher-low chain since the Asia low; London open broke above the Asian range high.
Overnight midterm results drove an Asia-session flush to 75,670, below the prior-day low, before a V-shaped recovery retraced the whole drop. The London open pushed through the Asian range high (78,086) and the prior high at 78,003 to a session high of 78,308. Price is holding just above 78,000 with RSI(14) near 64.
What it said to watch
Holding above the 78,003 prior high keeps the London breakout intact; a slip back inside the Asian range weakens it
Loss of the 77,673 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 38.2% fib near 77,300
A close above the 78,308 session high opens the path toward 79,000 psych resistance
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 75,670 Asia low; prior high at 78,003 broken.
Midterm-results volatility flushed BTC to 75,670 during the Asia session. A V-shaped recovery followed as USD slid on the Democratic sweep, taking out yesterday's 78,003 prior high and printing a session high at 78,308 into the London open. RSI(14) is near 74, and higher lows are holding along the recovery trendline.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 78,003 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the recovery trendline and the 77,673 swing low exposes the fib 38.2 retracement near 77,300
Session high at 78,308 then 79,000 psych: areas to watch for rejection or break
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
V-shaped recovery from 75,670 low, HH/HL chain into 78,000–78,095 highs.
The slide from 77,930 during US midterm results bottomed at 75,670 at 03:00 UTC. Asia then retraced the whole leg in a HH/HL chain along the rally trendline as USD sold off on the Democratic sweep. Price is retesting the 78,000–78,095 session high zone into London open, RSI(14) ~64, with the 77,836 higher low intact.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 78,095 session high extends the HH chain toward 79,000 psych
Loss of 77,836 higher low, then 77,673 swing low, breaks the rally trendline and the HL sequence
Back below 77,000 psych puts the rebound fib 50% near 76,880 in play
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Full retrace of overnight drop, tight consolidation under session high.
BTC dropped from 77930 to 75671 as midterm results landed in Asia hours, then a V-shaped recovery took out the 78003 prior high and printed a 78086 session high. Price has since compressed just under 78k, with a higher low at 77836 above the 77673 pullback low. RSI(14) sits near 63, well off overbought.
Support: 77,836.28, 77,673.46
Resistance: 78,003.10, 78,086.01
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78086 session high opens the 79k psych area flagged in the macro digest
Loss of the 77673 pullback low ends the higher low sequence and brings the 77328 breakout level into play
Holding above the 23.6% recovery fib (~77516) keeps the rebound structure intact
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
06:47 UTC
Sharp recovery, stalling at prior high · RSI 65 · price 77,839.28
V-shaped rebound, higher lows under 78.0k cap.
BTC dropped from 77930 to an Asian low at 75670 as midterm results landed. It then reclaimed yesterday's 76435 low in a false break and rebuilt a higher-low chain back to the 78003 prior high. A wick to the 78086 session high was rejected, and price is compressing just below that zone ahead of London open with RSI(14) at 65.
Support: 77,673.00, 77,165.00
Resistance: 78,003.00, 78,086.00, 79,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78086 session high clears the prior high and opens the 79000 psych level
Loss of the 77673 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the fib 38.2 near 77165
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Movement in the hacker wallets holding stolen BTC is a headline risk to the rebound
Overnight drop fully retraced; higher lows from 75,670, capped 78,003–78,086.
The Asia-session flush to 75,670 (asia low) as midterm results landed was fully reversed, with price back under the 78,003 prior high. The 78,086 session high produced a wick rejection, and the 77,673 pullback low has held since, with RSI(14) near 66 and the recovery trendline intact into the London open.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78,086 session high clears the prior high and extends the recovery leg
Loss of the 77,673 pullback low and the recovery trendline brings the 77,200 higher low and the 38.2% recovery fib (~77,160) into view
Return below 76,430 would undo the false break toward the 75,670 asia low
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could shift the read via yields; on-chain movement from hacker wallets is a headline risk
Asian session higher lows off 75,670; prior high swept.
Midterm results drove an overnight flush to 75,670 before a V-shaped Asia session recovery, with higher lows at 76,529 and a breakout shelf near 77,200 as USD sold off. The rally swept yesterday's NY prior high at 78,003 to a session high of 78,086 and met rejection. It is holding a micro low at 77,673 and the 38.2% fib, near 77,160, sits just under the shelf.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78,086 session high clears the prior high sweep; the 79,000 round number is the next cap
Loss of the 77,673 micro low and the 77,200 breakout shelf shifts focus to the 38.2% fib
Break of the rising trendline / 76,529 higher low negates the recovery structure
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
06:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asia low, stalling near 78k · RSI 66 · price 77,733.39
V-shaped recovery with HH/HL chain; false break above prior high.
Midterm results knocked BTC from 77,930 to a 75,671 low early in the Asia session. The drop has since fully retraced in a V, with higher lows at 76,529 and 77,245. The 05:45 UTC bar spiked to a 78,086 session high, then closed back under the 78,003 prior high, a false break, with RSI(14) near 66.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 78,086 session high would cancel the false-break read and bring psych 79k into view
Loss of the 77,245 swing low and the recovery trendline would expose psych 77k and the 38.2% recovery fib near 77,160
A break below the 76,529 higher low would unwind the V recovery structure
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 75,671 low, back into pre-drop shelf.
BTC slid about 2,300 from the 78,003 session high to a 75,671 low overnight as US midterm results landed, then recovered on a higher-low chain along the recovery line. Asia session has pushed back through the 78.6% fib of the overnight drop at 77,504 and is now retesting the 77,930 pre-drop high, with RSI(14) at 65 and EMAs below price.
What it said to watch
A close above the 78,003 session high clears the overnight drop and reopens the 79k area flagged in the digest
Rejection at the 77,930 pre-drop high plus a slip back under the 78.6% fib at 77,504 would leave a lower high
A break of the 77,200 pullback low and the recovery line ends the higher-low chain; 76,529 higher low is next
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
05:32 UTC
V-shaped recovery after an overnight flush, now pausing · RSI 58 · price 77,371.79
Higher lows off 75,670; consolidating 77,200–77,430 under the 78.6% fib.
The Democrats' House win triggered a flush from 77,930 to the 75,670 asia low around the Asia open. Price has since rebuilt a chain of higher lows, and the rebound stalled with a rejection at the 78.6% fib at 77,508. Late in the Asia session it is consolidating above the 77,200 consol low, with RSI(14) neutral near 58 and price back above both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Close above 77,508 (78.6% fib) opens the path back toward the 78,003 ny high
Loss of the 77,200 consol low and the rising trendline exposes the 76,529 swing low
London open is the first test of whether the Asian recovery range holds
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields/USD
Higher lows off asia low, capped at 78.6% retrace.
The late-NY prior high at 78,003 gave way from 23:45 UTC as the Democratic House result hit. The slide extended through the Asia session, sweeping yesterday's 76,316 lows down to the 75,671 asia low. The rebound has since reclaimed the 77,000 round number but met rejection at the 77,508 rebound high, right at the 78.6% of the drop fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 77,508 rebound high opens a retest of the 78,003 prior high
Loss of the 77,000 round number and the rebound line puts the 76,750 swing low back in play, with the 75,671 asia low below
London open in under 2h could set a new session range from this 78.6% drop-fib cap
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could reprice BTC alongside yields
Higher lows off 75,671; rebound stalled at 77,508.
Early midterm tallies drove a ~2,330 slide from the 78,003 day high to a 75,671 Asia low. That was a false break of Tuesday's 76,316 early low, reclaimed within the hour. The rebound has printed higher lows and stalled at the 77,508 rebound high, the 78.6% fib of the slide, with price holding above the 76,900 breakout base late in the Asia session ahead of London open.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 77,508 rebound high opens the path back toward the 78,003 day high
Loss of the 76,900 breakout base and the rebound line puts the 76,529 higher low back in focus
Failure to hold 76,529 would expose the 75,671 Asia low again
Remaining midterm Senate calls overnight could materially shift this read
Asia recovery stalling in the 50–61.8% retracement of the overnight drop.
The late-NY high at 78,003 gave way to a roughly 2,300-point slide into the Asia session as early midterm tallies landed. The drop swept the prior-day low near 76,316 and printed a swing low at 75,671. Asia has since stacked higher lows along a rising trendline back to 76,930, reclaiming EMA20 inside the 50–61.8% drop retracement, with the 77,016 rebound high still showing a rejection wick.
What it said to watch
A close above the 77,016 rebound high and the 61.8% drop retracement near 77,067 opens the 77,410 breakdown level
A break of the rising trendline and the 76,530 pullback low exposes the 76,080 higher low, then the 75,671 swing low
Remaining Senate calls overnight, then ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 78,003; V-bounce off 75,671 capped at 77,016.
Selling from the 78,003 NY-session high accelerated in the Asia session as midterm results came in. Price swept below the 76,316 prior low to a 75,671 swing low, then rebounded and met rejection at 77,016, the bounce high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement. Price now sits just below EMA20 near the 50% level around 76,840, and RSI(14) is neutral near 45.
What it said to watch
A close above the 77,016 bounce high and the 77,261 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 76,316 prior low reopens the 75,671 swing low
Further midterm Senate calls overnight, then ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Downtrend from 78,003, sharp rebound in progress · RSI 45 · price 76,784.44
Lower highs below 77,261; three higher lows off the 75,671 session low.
The Asia session unwound the NY push to 78,003 as early midterm tallies landed, sliding through the prior low at 76,316 to a 75,671 session low before reclaiming it. The V-rebound has printed three higher lows and met rejection at the 77,016 bounce high, just under the 61.8% fib. Price now sits on the 50% fib and the flat EMA20, with the 77,261 lower high and 77,504 Asia high overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 77,016 bounce high and the 77,261 lower high would break the lower-high sequence and bring the 77,504 Asia high into view
Failure to hold the 76,368 higher low breaks the rebound trendline and exposes the 75,671 session low
Further midterm Senate calls, then ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:04 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia bounce stalling · RSI 40 · price 76,394.87
Lower highs from 78,003; London low swept, now retesting from above.
The late-NY high at 78,003 gave way as early midterm results landed. A ~2,330-dollar slide swept the London low at 76,316 and printed an Asia low at 75,671. The early-Asia bounce stalled at the 76,507 bounce high, under the 38.2% fib (~76,560), leaving price parked on the London low with the lower highs intact.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 76,316 london low reopens the 76,000 round number and the 75,671 asia low
M15 close above the 76,507 bounce high and the 38.2% fib exposes the 76,750 broken low
Lower highs trendline near 77,000 caps the structure unless the 77,159 lower high is cleared
Senate race calls through Asia/London, then ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 77,930 late-NY high; prior-day low broken in Asia.
Asia extended the slide from the 77,930 high as midterm counts landed overnight, breaking 77k and the 76,316 prior low before a sweep to 75,670 snapped back above the 76,000 round number. The bounce stalled at the prior low and the 76,507 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib, keeping the lower-high chain and the falling trendline intact. RSI(14) sits at 36.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,316 prior low and 76,507 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 76,000 round number reopens the 75,670 sweep low
Falling trendline of lower highs near 76,700 and the 77,160 lower high cap any deeper bounce
Final midterm results through the session could materially shift this read
Lower highs after late-NY top; prior low broken, retest from below.
Supply capped the late-NY push at 78,003. The slide accelerated in the Asia session as midterm results came in, breaking the prior low at 76,316 and printing an Asia low at 75,671. The bounce stalled exactly at that prior low, lower highs from 77,261 still frame the move, and RSI(14) sits near 33 with price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 76,316 prior low negates the retest-and-reject read and opens the fib 38.2 at 76,562
Failure to hold the 76,000 psych level puts the 75,671 Asia low back in play
A break of the lower-highs line near 77,000 (round number) would end the lower-high sequence
Final midterm calls overnight and ADP at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after Asia flush · RSI 24 · price 75,896.42
Lower highs from 78,003; 76,750–77,260 base broken, prior low lost.
BTC rolled over from the 78,003 high late in NY hours and slid through Asia as midterm results rolled in. The move broke the 76,750–77,260 base, the broken base low, and took out the prior low at 76,316 before printing a 75,671 session low. RSI(14) near 24 is oversold, and the lower-high sequence capped at 77,260 is intact.
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 76,316 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 75,671 session low exposes the 75,000 round number
The 38.2% retrace of the selloff (~76,560) sits just below the broken base at 76,750
A close above the 77,260 lower high breaks the descending sequence
Further midterm calls overnight, then ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:04 UTC
Downtrend, RSI near oversold · RSI 23 · price 76,074.22
Lower-high chain, broke below prior Asian low.
The drop from the 78,003 late-NY high has carried through the Asia session as early midterm tallies came in. Price lost the 77,000 round number and the prior Asian low at 76,316, with lower highs at 77,261 and 77,159. RSI(14) is near 23, and price is sitting at the session low just above the 76,000 psych level.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 76,316 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Reclaiming the 76,750 swing low and the 77,000 round number (61.8% fib of the slide near 77,266) would break the lower-highs line
Loss of 76,000 psych extends the downtrend into territory with no structure in this window
Midterm results, then ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Downtrend, extended into Asia · RSI 25 · price 76,570.67
Lower highs and lower lows since the 78,003 late-NY high.
BTC was rejected at 78,003 late in the NY session, then slid about 1,430 points through the 77k psych level as early midterm tallies landed. Asia printed a lower high at 77,159 and a fresh low at 76,571, below the 76,749 broken low. RSI(14) near 25 is stretched, and the 76,316 prior low from yesterday's Asian session is the next reference below.
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 76,749 broken low would stall the lower-low sequence
Close above the 77k psych level, near the 38.2% of the 78k drop fib, reopens the 77,159 lower high
Loss of the 76,316 prior low removes the window's floor
Midterm race calls overnight, then ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
A ~1,360-point drop from the 78,003 session high began after NY close as midterm tallies rolled in. That drop has printed lower highs at 77,261 (swing high) and 77,159 (lower high) and a fresh session low at 76,644 in the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 31. Price is back inside the prior Asian range, and the 76,316 prior low is the next reference below.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 77,159 lower high and the 77,261 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 76,644 session low exposes the 76,316 prior low
A recovery toward 78,003 would need to clear the 50% retrace of the drop, near 77,320, first
Midterm results overnight, ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Downtrend after sharp Asia selloff, momentum easing · RSI 36 · price 76,881.33
Lower highs capping a 76,750–77,260 compression after a break below 77,000.
The late-NY swing high at 78,003 gave way to a ~1,250-point slide into the Asia session as early midterm tallies landed. Price cut below 77,000 and retraced more than 61.8% of the rally from the prior low at 76,316. It is now compressing between the 76,749 Asian low and lower highs at 77,159–77,261, with RSI(14) near 36 and off oversold.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 76,749 Asian low exposes the prior low at 76,316
M15 close back above the 77,000 psych level and the 77,261 lower high would neutralise the breakdown read
Further midterm race calls overnight and ADP at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
02:05 UTC
Downtrend after late-NY rejection, now basing · RSI 36 · price 77,014.19
Sharp lower-low leg off 78,003, Asia consolidating 76,750–77,261.
Rejected at the 78,003 window high late in NY, BTC dropped about 1,250 into the Asia open as early midterm results rolled in, printing a session low at 76,750. Asia is now consolidating 76,750–77,261. The bounce high is capping near the 38.2% fib of the drop, price is back at the 77,000 psych level and RSI(14) sits near 36.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 77,261 bounce high opens the 50% fib near 77,375 and the 61.8% near 77,525
Failure to hold 77,000 psych and a break of the 76,750 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the nov 3 low at 76,316
Midterm race calls overnight could materially shift this read, given the crypto-regulation angle
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) later Wednesday are the next scheduled volatility risk
Lower highs off 78,003 session high; holding just above 76,749 swing low.
BTC slid about 1,250 from the 78,003 session high after the NY close as midterm results began landing, breaking below 77,000 psych. Early Asia is pressing the 76,749 swing low, with the 77,261 lower high capping the bounce near the fib 38.2% and under the falling trendline.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 76,749 swing low exposes the asia lows near 76,500 and the 76,316 day low
An M15 close back above 77,000 psych and the trendline weakens the lower-high sequence; above the 77,261 lower high it is void
Midterm Senate calls overnight could materially shift this read; ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC follow
01:32 UTC
Downtrend after post-NY-close selloff · RSI 35 · price 76,955.25
BTC broke down through the 77,445 NY range floor after the NY close as midterm results began landing. It slid from the 78,003 prior high to a 76,749 Asia session low and lost the 77,000 round number. Bounces stalled at the 77,261 lower high near the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) around 35 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 76,749 session low exposes the 76,316 window low
An M15 close above the 77,261 lower high breaks the descending trendline and lower-high chain; the 77,445 breakdown level sits above
Reclaim of the 77,000 round number would mark first repair of the breakdown
Senate race calls overnight or movement in the hacker wallets could extend the move
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Sharp downtrend, early Asia · RSI 30 · price 76,883.33
Late-NY range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows since 23:30 UTC.
The late-NY range of 77,700–77,930 gave way from 23:30 UTC as midterm results began landing. Price slid about 1,180 points through the 77,000 psych level to a 76,749 session low in the early Asia session. Two bounces stalled at the 77,260 bounce high near the 38.2% fib, and price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 30.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 76,749 session low exposes the 76,316 prior low from Tuesday's Asian session
An M15 close back above the 77,000 psych level and the 77,260 bounce high neutralises the lower-high sequence
A return inside the old range low at 77,691 would mark the breakdown as a false break
Midterm Senate calls through Asia, then ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
HL chain from 76316 to 78003 broken; spike low at 76803, bounce stalling near 50% fib.
BTC climbed from the 24h low at 76316 in Asia to a 24h high at 78003 late in the NY session. It then dropped roughly 1,200 dollars in five bars from 23:30 UTC as midterm results began landing, briefly breaking the round number at 77000. A rejection wick off the 76803 spike low lifted price back to the 50% fib near 77160, with the 38.2% fib at 77360 and ema20 near 77480 overhead.
Support: 77,000.00, 76,803.00, 76,316.00
Resistance: 77,360.00, 77,480.00, 78,003.00
What it said to watch
A close back above the 38.2% fib at 77360 and ema20 near 77480 would ease the breakdown read
Failure to hold the round number at 77000 reopens the 76803 spike low and the 76316 24h low
Overnight Senate race calls could extend or reverse the drop; ADP is due at 13:15 UTC
Lower highs from 77,930; afternoon range broken to the downside.
The NY rally to the 78,003 session high fully unwound after the NY close. That came as a ~1,200-point slide through the 77,700–77,900 range into the Asia open while midterm results landed, leaving price below the 77,000 psych level with a lower-highs sequence intact. RSI(14) is lifting off the mid-20s to ~30 near the 76,803 session low, and yesterday's Asian prior low at 76,316 sits below.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 76,803 session low exposes the 76,316 prior low from yesterday's Asian range
Reclaiming the 77,000 psych level and the 77,380 breakdown point (near the 50% fib of the drop) would break the lower-highs line
Overnight midterm results on crypto regulation could materially shift this read during Asia hours
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
Breakdown from 77,700–77,900 shelf to fresh lower low at 77,002.
Late NY tagged a 78,003 session high and stalled at the $78k mark. Price then slid ~1,000 points into the early Asia session as midterm results began landing. The drop broke the 77,690 NY shelf and printed a 77,002 swing low, returning price to the $77k post-hack area, with RSI(14) near 28.
What it said to watch
Close below the 77,002 swing low (~$77k) exposes the London low at 76,448
Recovery through the 77,409 lower high and back above the 77,690 NY shelf would neutralise the breakdown read
Stalling inside the 50–61.8% retracement of the 78k-77k drop (~77,500–77,620) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Midterm Senate call overnight could materially shift this read; ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC follow
Any on-chain movement from the hacker wallets could extend the slide below the swing low
Lower high under 78,003, breakdown below the 77,740 base.
BTC was rejected just above 78,000 and then slid from the 77,740 breakdown level to a 77,297 session low into the Asia open as midterm results roll in. That leg cut through the 61.8% fib of the NY rally from 77,069 and broke the rising support from the NY low. RSI(14) sits near 38 with price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 77,297 session low exposes the 77,069 NY low and the 77,000 psych level, the post-hack low area
Recovery back above the 61.8% fib at 77,426 and the 77,740 breakdown level would negate the late-session drop; the 78,003 session high caps above
Senate call in the overnight midterm count, then ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 77,069 broken by the 23:45 UTC flush.
The NY-session higher-low climb topped at the 78,003 session high, a marginal poke through 78,000 that was rejected. A ~350-point flush at 23:45 UTC, as midterm results began landing, cut through the rising trendline and the late base to a 77,378 spike low. Price opens Asia between the fib 50% at 77,536 and the 61.8% at 77,426, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 42.
What it said to watch
A close below the 77,378 spike low extends the move past the 61.8% retracement and exposes the 77,069 ny low
A rejection at the fib 50% (77,536) keeps the bounce corrective; a reclaim of the 77,690 late base is needed to repair the higher-low chain
Midterm results overnight, especially the Senate call, could materially shift this read; the 77,000 post-hack area sits just below the ny low