22:06 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows since late Sep · RSI 37 · price 74,339.13
LH/LL sequence from the 87,270 double top; fresh swing low at 72,630.
The downtrend has run since the 87,270 double top of late Sep/early Oct. A lower-high, lower-low chain runs through Oct–Nov, and price sits below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50) on D1, with a fifth straight weekly loss on the books. The hot US CPI print on Tue extended the slide to a fresh swing low at 72,630, with RSI at 37 weak but not oversold and ATR expanding. Overhead, the broken prior low at 76,227 sits beneath the ema20 at 77,298 and the descending trendline from the 81,104 lower high.
Support: 72,630.01, 70,000.00
Resistance: 76,227.05, 77,298.16, 81,103.68
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 72,630 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 70,000 psych level, the options-market downside strike
- Recovery above the 76,227 prior low and the ema20 at 77,298 would be the first challenge to the sequence; the 38.2% fib of the Sep–Nov decline sits near 78,220
- Daily close above the 81,104 lower high and the descending trendline invalidates the downtrend read
- Thu Fed speakers and Fri Core PPI YoY (f/c 5%) could materially shift this read