Lower highs from 76,125; higher lows since the 72,630 CPI low.
Highs have stepped lower since Sunday's 76,125 peak. Tuesday's hot US CPI print drove a NY-session flush to the 72,630 week low. Wednesday's NY rebound stalled at 74,718, the same level as the CPI-spike high and just under the 61.8% retracement of the week decline; the late fade puts price back below EMA(20) at 74,027 and EMA(50) at 74,135, with RSI(14) easing from 60.9 to 47.4 while post-CPI lows still rise via the 73,303 swing low and today's 73,792 session low.
Support: 73,303.27, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,027.26, 74,135.47
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 and ema50 (74,027–74,135) reopens a test of the 74,718 cpi high
Second rejection at the 74,718 cpi high keeps the lower-highs line intact
Break of the 73,303 swing low breaks the post-CPI lows line and exposes the 72,630 week low
Jobless claims and six Fed speakers Thu from 13:30 UTC, then core PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday, higher lows since CPI low.
BTC is still printing lower highs from Monday's 75473.88 peak, and Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the NY-session flush to the 72630.01 cpi low. Higher lows at 73113 and 73303 followed, then a NY-hours push broke the post-CPI range top near 74080 and lifted price above both EMAs. The advance stalled at the 74718.71 day high, just past the 61.8% retracement of the Monday-to-CPI drop and under the lower-high trendline. RSI(14) has eased to 55 from 60.9, and the rising EMA(20) at 74045 is still below a flattening EMA(50).
Support: 74,045.43, 73,303.27, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,718.71, 75,473.88
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 74718.71 day high breaks the lower-high trendline and opens the path to the 75473.88 monday high
Loss of the ema20 at 74045 and the 73303 swing low would put price back inside the post-CPI range, with the 72630.01 cpi low beneath
MSCI review on Strategy (22:00 UTC), Thursday's jobless claims and Fed speakers, and Friday's core PPI could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 72,630; broke above Wednesday's 73,100–74,080 range.
BTC printed the week low at 72,630 during NY hours after Tuesday's hot CPI, then built higher lows at 73,113 and 73,303 along a rising trendline. Today's NY session lifted price out of the 73,100–74,080 range to a 74,690 session high and above the 61.8% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday drop. RSI(14) sits at 60.9, price is above the ema20 at 74,019 and above an ema50 that has stopped falling, while the lower highs at Monday's 75,474 and Tuesday's 75,330 still frame the week.
Support: 74,080.00, 74,018.82, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,689.75, 75,330.04, 75,473.88
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 74,080 range top and the ema20 at 74,019 would return price to Wednesday's range
A break through the 74,690 session high and the 74,720 CPI spike high would mark the first higher high since CPI, with the Tuesday high at 75,330 and the Monday high at 75,474 next
Loss of the 73,303 swing low would break the higher-low trendline from the 72,630 week low
MSCI index review at 22:00 UTC tonight, then Thursday's jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers, could shift this read
Friday's Core PPI at 13:30 UTC is the high-impact test for 50bp hike pricing
Tuesday's hot CPI drove the week low at 72,630 during NY hours. BTC then built a 73,300–74,080 range through Wednesday's Asia and London sessions, before a range break during NY hours today carried price to a 74,690 day high. The pullback has so far held the ema50 at 74,122, with the ema20 turning higher beneath it and RSI(14) easing from 59 to 57. Price sits near the 50% retracement of the week-high-to-CPI-low decline, still below the lower high at 75,470.
Support: 74,122.43, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,689.75
What it said to watch
MSCI index review at 22:00 UTC (Strategy deletion) could materially shift this read within the next few bars
H1 close back below the ema20 near 73,960 returns price to the 73,300–74,080 range and negates the break
H1 close above the 74,690 day high opens the path toward the 75,330–75,470 lower high zone
Loss of the 73,303 higher low breaks the rising higher lows trendline from the CPI low
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri 13:30 UTC core PPI are the next macro tests for this structure
19:04 UTC
Recovering within a weekly downtrend · RSI 59 · price 74,307.17
Higher lows since CPI low, range top cleared.
The week's dominant leg was the CPI drop from the 75,474 Monday high to 72,630 in Tuesday's NY session, after hot US CPI lifted Fed hike odds. Since then price has printed higher lows at 73,113 and the 73,303 day low, and today's NY rally cleared the 73,100–74,080 range to a 74,690 day high, near the 61.8% retracement of that drop. Price now sits above both the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) lifting from the mid-40s to 59 and ATR(14) re-expanding off its low.
Support: 74,114.04, 73,919.82, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,689.75, 75,473.88
What it said to watch
MSCI ruling on Strategy at 22:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close back below the ema50 at 74,114 and the 74,080 range top negates the range break
An hourly close above the 74,690 day high opens the path toward the 75,474 Monday high
Loss of the 73,303 day low, below the ema20 at 73,920, breaks the higher-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K)
Range break higher from 73100–74080 range, higher lows since Tuesday.
Tuesday's hot US CPI extended Sunday evening's flush from 75690 into a 72630 week low during NY hours. A two-day 73100–74080 range followed, built on higher lows. Today's NY session broke the range top and reclaimed the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) climbing from 44 to 59 and ATR expanding off its range lows. Price now sits at the 61.8% fib of the Monday–Tuesday drop, just under the 74690 session high, with the 75474 monday high the next prior reference above.
Support: 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,689.75, 75,473.88
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the ema50 near 74100 returns price to the 73100–74080 range
Close above the 74690 session high and the 61.8% fib opens the path to the 75474 monday high
Break of the 73303 swing low ends the higher-lows sequence off the 72630 week low
MSCI index review (Strategy deletion) at 22:00 UTC tonight could materially shift this read
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers are the next USD rate-pricing risk
Higher lows off the 72,630 low; post-CPI range top broken.
Selling has driven the week. A Sunday-evening flush to 73,443 came first, then Tuesday's hot US CPI beat extended the slide during NY hours to a 72,630 week low. Since then price has carved higher lows at 73,113 and 73,303 inside a 73,100–74,080 consolidation. Today's NY session pushed through that range top and back above the ema20 (73,807) and ema50 (74,088), with RSI(14) at 55.8, its highest reading in 20 bars, and ATR re-expanding. The session high at 74,371 stalls just under the 61.8% retracement of the Monday high-to-CPI low drop (~74,388), with the cpi high at 74,719 the next prior level overhead.
Support: 74,087.78, 73,806.97, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,371.10, 74,718.71, 75,473.88
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema50 at 74,088 (old range top) would mark today's range break as a false break
Loss of the 73,303 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 72,630 week low
Close above the ~74,388 61.8% and session high opens the cpi high at 74,719, then the monday high at 75,474
Strategy MSCI verdict is imminent and could materially shift this read
Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC, followed by heavy Fedspeak
Lower highs since Monday; Wednesday range 73,100–74,400 below ema50.
BTC has printed lower highs since Sunday's 76,125 week high. The Sunday-evening flush and the hot US CPI print on Tuesday drove the dominant legs, with the NY session taking price to the 72,630 week low. Wednesday has been a 73,100–74,400 consolidation: price sits just above a flattening ema20 but below a falling ema50. The NY-session spike off the twice-tested 73,303 session low hit rejection at the 74,371 day high, near the 50% fib of the week's decline. RSI(14) is pinned in the 42–52 band and ATR is compressing from Tuesday's expansion.
Support: 73,766.84, 73,303.27, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,371.10, 74,734.70
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 74,371 day high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 74,735 weekly open
Hourly close back below ema20 at 73,767 returns focus to the 73,303 session low
Failure to hold the 73,303 session low exposes the 72,630 week low
MSCI decision on Strategy is imminent and could jolt this range
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak could materially shift this read
15:04 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating below EMAs · RSI 44 · price 73,549.00
Lower highs since Monday; post-CPI range 73,113–74,081.
BTC printed a week low of 72,630 in Tuesday's NY session after the hot US CPI beat lifted Fed hike odds. That extended a run of lower highs from Monday's 75,474 peak. Since then price has held a 73,113–74,081 consolidation under EMA(50) near 74,090, with the range high capping at London open today near the 50% retracement of the 75,474–72,630 leg. It slipped back below EMA(20) into the NY open as RSI(14) faded from 52 to 43.7, and ATR is compressing as the range narrows.
Support: 73,303.27, 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,081.42, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 74,081 range high and EMA(50) breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 74,719 post-CPI high
Failure to hold the 73,303 session low and 73,113 range low exposes the 72,630 week low; a break there confirms a lower low
Strategy MSCI index decision due within hours could materially shift this read
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate could move USD-driven hike pricing
Lower highs since Monday; post-CPI consolidation with rising lows.
BTC has carved lower highs from Monday's 75,474 NY-session high, and the hot US CPI print on Tuesday drove the leg to a 72,630 week low during NY hours after a spike to the 74,719 CPI high. Since then price has compressed into a 73,445–74,080 consolidation, posting higher lows through Asia and London today while the range top caps near the 50% fib of that drop and the lower-highs line. Price is pinned at a flat EMA(20) and below a falling EMA(50) at 74,116, with RSI(14) recovering from 40 to 47.5 and ATR(14) contracting roughly 30% since the low.
Support: 73,581.97, 73,445.12, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,115.54, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 74,080 range top and ema50 at 74,116 breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 74,719 CPI high
Loss of the 73,582 higher low and then the 73,445 range floor re-exposes the 72,630 week low
Strategy MSCI verdict due within hours could jolt the consolidation
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers, then Fri core PPI, could materially shift this read
Post-CPI consolidation with higher lows under EMA(50).
The hot US CPI print broke Tuesday's NY session to a week low at 72630, extending Sunday's drop from the 75.9K area. Since then BTC has carved higher lows at 73113 and 73445, with a range top at 74081 and the falling EMA(50) at 74132 capping. The last close held just above a flattening EMA(20) at 73787, RSI(14) has recovered from 37.5 to 49, and ATR has compressed from about 61.4K to 44.1K pips, with price near the 38.2% fib of the monday high-to-week low leg.
Support: 73,445.12, 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,081.42, 74,132.02
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 74081 range top and the ema50 at 74132 would end the lower-high sequence from Monday
Loss of the 73445 higher low and the rising support line reopens the 73113 swing low and the 72630 week low
Strategy MSCI verdict due within hours could break the ATR compression in either direction
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims (f/c 195K) and the Fed speaker slate could shift the read
12:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in consolidation · RSI 51 · price 73,857.66
Lower highs intact; higher lows since the CPI week low.
Lower highs from Saturday's 76,125 and the Monday high at 75,474 define the H1 downtrend. The hot US CPI print then pushed price through 73,500 in Tuesday's NY session to a week low at 72,630. Since then a compressed 73,100–74,100 consolidation has formed, with higher lows off Wednesday's Asia low and price back above a flattening EMA(20) but below the falling EMA(50) at 74,146, while RSI(14) has recovered from 31 to near 51 as ATR contracts and the London-open Wed high at 74,081 caps at the 50% retracement of the Monday high to week low leg.
Support: 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,081.42, 74,145.63, 75,473.88
What it said to watch
H1 close above the wed high at 74,081 and the ema50 at 74,146 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path toward the 75,474 Monday high
Loss of the ema20 and then the 73,113 asia low breaks the higher lows and puts the 72,630 week low back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims and the Fed-speaker slate on Thu, then Fri Core PPI, could materially shift this read
11:04 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI base forming · RSI 52 · price 73,942.57
Lower highs since Sunday; higher lows off the CPI low.
The week's highs have stepped lower, from 75596 late Sunday to 75473 in Monday's NY session and 75330 at Tuesday's open. Tuesday's hot US CPI then flushed price to a 72630 week low during NY hours, after the 74718 cpi high failed. Since then BTC has carved higher lows through Wednesday's Asia session and sits at the 50% retrace of Tuesday's drop, inside a 73113–74081 range top. Price holds above a flattening ema20 but stays under the falling ema50 at 74155. RSI(14) has climbed from 31 to 52 and ATR is compressing.
Support: 73,773.76, 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,081.42
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 74081 range top and the ema50 at 74155 would break the lower-high sequence and put the 74718 cpi high back in view
A break of the 73113 higher low and the higher-lows trendline would expose the 72630 week low and the 73K psych area
Losing the ema20 at 73774 on a closing basis would return price to the lower half of the range
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri 13:30 UTC Core PPI could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Sunday; 72.6K–74.1K consolidation after CPI break.
Sunday's late flush to 73,443 opened a 73.6K–75.5K range. Highs stepped lower from 75,597 to 75,474, then 75,330. Tuesday's hot US CPI broke that range in the NY session, driving a run to a week low of 72,630 as the liquidation flush hit. Since then price has rebuilt a 72.6K–74.1K consolidation. RSI(14) has recovered from 31 to the high 40s, and ATR is compressing from its post-CPI peak. This morning's London push to a 74,081 session high faded back under a flattening EMA(20) at 73,755, with the falling EMA(50) at 74,164 overhead. The bounce so far sits just shy of the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop.
Support: 73,113.48, 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,754.62, 74,081.42, 74,163.75
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 74,081 session high and ema50 at 74,164 breaks the consolidation and the lower-high sequence
Holding below ema20 keeps the post-CPI bounce capped
Loss of the 73,113 overnight low and the 73,000 psych floor exposes the 72,630 week low
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Fri 13:30 UTC Core PPI, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the CPI low, capped below the falling EMA(50).
BTC lost the Monday 74,000–75,500 consolidation during yesterday's NY session on the hot US CPI beat, printing the cpi low at 72,630 before rebounding. Since then H1 has set higher lows through the Asia session at 73,113 (asia low) and 73,445, but the London open push to 74,081 stalled at the 50% retracement of the CPI drop fib and closed back below EMA(20) at 73,760, with EMA(50) at 74,182 still sloping lower. RSI(14) has recovered from 31 to 46.8 after briefly tagging 52, and ATR has compressed from about 622 to 487 USD as the post-CPI range tightens.
Support: 73,445.12, 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,759.55, 74,081.42, 74,182.36
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 74,081 london high and EMA(50) at 74,182 would break the lower-high sequence and reclaim the 50% fib
Failure to hold the 73,445 higher low breaks the higher-low line; a move through the 73,113 asia low exposes the 72,630 cpi low
RSI(14) holding above 50 alongside a close back above EMA(20) at 73,760 would mark momentum turning
Thu Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and the Fedspeak slate, then Fri Core PPI, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday's 75,474 top; higher lows off the 72,630 CPI low.
The hot October CPI print in Tuesday's NY session spiked to a CPI high at 74,719, then broke BTC out of its 74,300–75,300 shelf to a week low at 72,630, extending the lower-highs sequence from Monday's 75,474 top. Since then a higher low at 73,113 in the Asia session has lifted price back above EMA(20) at 73,771, with RSI(14) recovering from 31 to 52 and ATR compressing from its post-CPI peak. The session high at 74,028 now sits at the 50% retrace of the Monday-to-CPI-low drop and on the descending lower-highs line, with a falling EMA(50) at 74,204 just above.
Support: 73,770.88, 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,028.47, 74,204.02, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 74,028 session high and the lower-highs line puts EMA(50) at 74,204 and the 61.8% retrace near 74,390 in play
A close back below EMA(20) at 73,771 and the higher-lows line returns focus to the 73,113 higher low
Failure to hold 73,113 opens a retest of the 72,630 week low and the analyst-flagged 73,000 area
Initial Jobless Claims and Fed speakers Thu 13:30 UTC onward, then PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Tuesday's hot US CPI print produced a range break through the 73,650–75,470 band that held since Monday's open. Price slid during NY hours to the cpi low at 72,630. The rebound has since compressed into a pennant, with lower highs at the 73,950 range top and higher lows up to the 73,113 swing low, capped below the 38.2% fib near 73,720. Price sits under a declining ema20 at 73,746 and ema50 at 74,212, while RSI(14) has recovered from 31 but failed at 49 and sits at 44.
Support: 73,113.48, 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,949.56, 74,212.24
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 73,950 range top and the ema50 at 74,212 invalidates the pennant-continuation read
Failure to hold the 73,113 swing low and the 73,000 round number exposes the cpi low at 72,630
Thursday 13:30 UTC Initial Jobless Claims and Fed speakers through the day could break the pennant either way
Friday 13:30 UTC PPI is the key test of the CPI-driven move
Higher lows under flat cap near 73950, below EMA(50).
Sunday's late-session flush from 75700 left BTC churning in a 74000–75400 band until Tuesday's hot October CPI extended the slide through the NY session to a week low at 72630, after a whipsaw to the 74719 cpi spike high. Since then a higher low at 73113 printed in Asia hours, while the range cap near 73950 has held three times, just under the 61.8% retracement of the CPI drop. Price is back above EMA(20) at 73769 but below a still-falling EMA(50) at 74240, with RSI(14) recovering from 31 to 49 and ATR(14) easing from its post-CPI peak.
Support: 73,769.08, 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,949.56, 74,240.01, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 73950 range cap and 61.8% fib opens the EMA(50) at 74240, then the 74719 cpi spike high
Loss of the 73113 higher low breaks the recovery structure and exposes the 73000 round number and the 72630 week low
H1 closes back below EMA(20) at 73769 would signal the bounce is fading inside the range
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims plus the Fedspeak slate, then Fri 13:30 UTC PPI, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Sunday; tight range under ema20 above the week low.
BTC has printed a run of lower highs since Sunday evening's flush out of the 75,500–76,100 weekend range. The hot October CPI in Tuesday's NY session then extended the leg to a 72,630 week low as a December Fed hike was priced. The rebound stalled at the 73,950 bounce high, just under the 50% level of the selloff fib and the 74,000 breakdown level. Since Tuesday's NY close, price has been coiling between the 73,113 swing low and the ema20 at 73,762, with both EMAs sloping lower and RSI(14) recovering from 31 to 45.6 without reaching oversold. ATR has eased to 50,536 pips from the post-CPI peak near 62,000.
Support: 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,761.96, 73,949.56, 74,256.47
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 73,950 bounce high and 74,000 would break the lower-highs line and put the ema50 at 74,256 in play
Failure to hold the 73,113 swing low and psych 73k exposes the 72,630 week low
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate could shift the read; Fri PPI is the larger test of the hike narrative
Continued ATR compression inside the post-CPI range would point to a range break building into PPI
BTC broke down from the 73,600–75,500 range in place since Sunday night's flush. The hot October CPI drove a NY-session slide to the 72,630 cpi low. The rebound has stalled at the 73,950 bounce high, below $74K and the 50% fib of the 75,474–72,630 drop, with price pinned under a flattening EMA(20) at 73,774 and a still-falling EMA(50) at 74,281, while RSI(14) has recovered from 31 to 46 without reaching 50. The Asian low at 73,113 caps a short run of post-CPI higher lows above the $73K psych line.
Support: 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,774.28, 73,949.56, 74,281.44
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 73,950 bounce high and $74K would open a test of the ema50 at 74,281
Loss of the 73,113 asian low breaks the post-CPI higher lows; below $73K psych, the 72,630 cpi low is next
Thursday jobless claims and Fed speakers, then Friday's PPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday, post-CPI range 73,100-73,950.
After a Sunday-evening flush to 73,443, Monday's rebound stalled at 75,474 and every high since has been lower. The hot US CPI print broke the 74,000 handle during NY hours yesterday and set the cpi low at 72,630 with RSI(14) bottoming at 31.4. Price has since chopped between the asian low at 73,113 and the rebound high at 73,950, just under the 38.2% weekly drop fib, beneath an ema20 at 73,784 and a falling ema50 at 74,306, with RSI(14) at 43.7 and ATR easing off the CPI spike.
Support: 73,113.48, 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,783.80, 73,949.56, 74,305.83
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 73,950 rebound high and ema20 reclaims the post-CPI range top, with ema50 at 74,306 next
Break of the 73,113 asian low exposes 73,000 psych and the 72,630 cpi low
A close through the lower highs trendline from 75,330 ends the lower-high sequence
Jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu 13:30 UTC, then PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
BTC has printed lower highs since Monday's NY-session high at 75,474. Tuesday's hot October CPI drove the NY-session leg to a week low at 72,630. The rebound stalled at a 73,950 bounce high, short of the 50% level of the CPI leg fib, and price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 73,809 and EMA(50) at 74,337. The Asia-session spike to 73,933 was rejected back toward 73,500, while RSI(14) at 43 has recovered from 31 without divergence and ATR is easing off its post-CPI peak.
Support: 73,260.32, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,809.25, 73,949.56, 74,337.01
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 73,950 bounce high and back over ema20 would break the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 73,260 swing low exposes the psych 73k level and the 72,630 week low
Reclaim of ema50 at 74,337 would neutralise the CPI leg read
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers, then Fri PPI, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's Asia session, range broken lower on CPI.
Sunday evening's flush to 73,443 set up a 73,600–75,470 range through Monday. The hot October CPI broke that range lower during the first hours of NY on Tuesday, reaching a 72,630 CPI low as RSI(14) dipped to 31.4. The bounce stalled at the 73,950 bounce high, near the 50% of the post-CPI fib leg from 75,330, and price has slipped back below a falling EMA(20) at 73,841 and EMA(50) at 74,371 during the Asia session, with RSI at 42 and ATR easing off its post-CPI peak.
Support: 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,840.96, 73,949.56, 74,370.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 73,950 bounce high and ema20 would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold 73,000 psych exposes the 72,630 CPI low, with the 70K–69K zone flagged by analysts below
Reclaim of ema50 at 74,371 would put price back inside Monday's range
Thu jobless claims and Fed speakers (Williams 23:30 UTC), then Fri PPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday's 75,474 peak; range broken lower.
Tuesday's hot October CPI hit in the NY session and broke the 73.6K–75.5K range that had held since Sunday evening's flush. Price dropped to a week low at 72,630, then bounced only to a 73,950 bounce high, between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the slide from Monday's 75,474 peak. Price now sits below a falling EMA(20) at 73,883 and EMA(50) at 74,409 with the lower highs intact. RSI(14) has recovered from 31.4 to 45 without printing oversold, and ATR(14) is easing to about $530 from a post-CPI spike near $620.
Support: 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,882.94, 73,949.56, 74,408.76
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 (73,883) and the 73,950 bounce high would break the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 73,430 prior low (Sunday flush and pre-CPI dip) exposes round number 73,000 and the 72,630 week low
ema50 at 74,409 sits near the 61.8% retrace and marks the upper limit of a deeper recovery
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate, then Fri 13:30 UTC PPI, could materially shift this read