Lower highs/lower lows from 81,893; shallow higher lows since the 72,630 CPI low.
Lower highs and lower lows have held since the 81,893 peak. The post-NFP leg and Tuesday's hot CPI print, which revived Fed-hike fears, extended the decline to the 72,630 cpi low. Since then price has printed shallow higher lows and is pressing the ema20 at 74,416. It remains capped at the 74,719 lower high, near the 23.6% retracement of the 81,104–72,630 drop, while RSI's 29.6 low against a lower price low marks a bullish divergence. ATR(14) at 89,092 pips (~$891) has eased from its 96,334 peak but stays elevated, and the ema50 at 75,584 caps the downtrend structure.
Support: 73,440.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,415.99, 74,718.71, 75,583.75
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 74,719 lower high and the lower-highs trendline would mark the first break in the descending sequence
Failure at the 73,440 swing low and the post-CPI higher lows exposes the 72,630 cpi low. Below that, the 70k psych level, the options-market downside strike, is the next reference
Recovery through the ema50 at 75,584 would invalidate the lower-high structure
Core PPI YoY (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 5%) and Thursday's six Fed speakers could materially shift this read
MSCI review outcome on Strategy (MSTR), due 22:00 UTC, is a near-term sentiment risk around 74K
Lower highs and lower lows since the 81.1k swing high.
BTC has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 81.1k swing high on Nov 4. Tuesday's hot CPI drove the slide to the 72,630 window low, and ATR(14) has expanded from about 65,600 to 91,335 pips (~$913) as Fed-hike pricing builds. The latest bar closed back above the ema20 at 74,428 and sits near the 23.6% retracement of the 81.1k drop, but the 74,700 cap zone has capped two highs, and price remains below a falling ema50 at 75,636 and the lower-high line.
Support: 74,428.39, 72,630.01
Resistance: 75,636.22, 76,445.81
What it said to watch
MSCI index review at 22:00 UTC tonight could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 74,700 cap zone and the lower-high line near 74,920 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the ema50 at 75,636
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 73k area exposes the 72,630 window low and extends the lower-low structure
76,446 breakdown shelf and the 38.2% fib near 75,870 mark the upper bound of a corrective bounce
Fri core PPI y/y (f/c 5%) is the key hike-pricing test for this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since the 81,104 rejection.
BTCUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 81,104 rejection, and the hot CPI beat drove the latest leg to a 72,630 swing low, about 800 below the 73,443 prior low, as ETF outflows extended. Price sits below a falling ema20 at 74,427 and ema50 at 75,685, which lines up with the short-term-holder cost basis, and is pressing the lower-high trendline. RSI made a higher low against a lower price low, a mild bullish divergence, and ATR(14) is easing from its post-breakdown peak, which suggests selling momentum is cooling rather than reversing.
Support: 73,443.12, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,427.27, 75,685.09, 76,867.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the ema20 and the lower-high trendline would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 72,630 swing low extends the lower-low structure and voids the RSI divergence
Rebound into the ema50 near 75,685 and the fib 50% at 76,867 meets the area where the last two bounces failed
Thu jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Fri 13:30 UTC core PPI, could materially shift this read
Strategy MSCI verdict due today is a headline risk near the 73,443 prior low
Lower highs and lower lows since the late-October high.
BTCUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 81.9k late-October peak. The hot US CPI beat drove the latest leg to the 72,630 cpi low, and price is now holding a tight 73.0k–74.1k band just above the 73,000 psych level, below a falling ema20 and ema50 that remain bearishly stacked. The lower-highs line from 75,330 is capping the bounce, while RSI has set a higher low against the 73,443 flush for a mild bullish divergence. ATR(14) has expanded to about $908 from about $640 last week, which keeps multi-day swings wide.
Support: 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,502.58, 75,596.75, 75,765.63
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 72,630 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence; the 73,000 psych level is the first floor being tested.
A reclaim of the ema20 at 74,503 and the lower-highs line would be the first break in the descending structure.
A close above the 75,597 lower high and the ema50 at 75,766, which sits near the 38.2% fib of the 81.1k–72.6k leg, invalidates the downtrend read.
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims plus Fedspeak, and Fri 13:30 UTC core PPI (f/c 5%), could materially shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows since the 81.9k late-October top.
BTC has printed successive lower highs (81.9k, 81.1k, 75.5k) and lower lows over the window. The hot October CPI pushed it to a fresh swing low at 72,630. Price is now holding just above the 73,000 psych level, below a falling EMA20 (74,586) and EMA50 (75,849), and ATR(14) has expanded to 92,897 pips from about 64,000 a week ago. RSI at 39 made a higher low (29.6 vs 26.3) as price set its lower low, a modest bullish divergence that has not yet altered the swing structure, while price is pressing the descending lower-high trendline near 73,800.
Support: 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,586.24, 75,849.63
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 75,473 lower high would break the lower-high sequence and put the ema50 and 38.2% fib zone near 75,850 in play
Failure to hold psych 73,000 and a break of the 72,630 swing low extends the lower-low structure and voids the RSI divergence
Rejection at the ema20 (74,586) keeps the descending lower-high trendline intact
Thu jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate, then Fri 13:30 UTC PPI, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 81,104 swing high.
BTC has printed lower highs and lower lows since the early-November 81,104 swing high, and the hot US CPI beat extended the sequence to the 72,630 cpi low. Price sits below a falling EMA20 (74,665) and EMA50 (75,932), with the EMA20 below the EMA50 throughout the window. ATR(14) has expanded from about 64,000 to 94,126 pips (~$941) as the drop accelerated. RSI at 35 held above its prior trough at the new low, a modest bullish divergence, while price holds just above the 73,000 psych level.
Support: 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,665.14, 75,596.75, 75,931.79
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the ema20 at 74,665 and the CPI-bar high at 74,719 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 73,000 psych level and the 72,630 cpi low extends the lower-low structure toward the 70,000 zone
Lower high at 75,597 and the ema50 at 75,932, near the 38.2% fib of the 81,104-72,630 drop, cap any rebound
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Thu jobless claims and Fed speakers (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Williams) are a test for December hike pricing