21:09 UTC
Swing uptrend intact, momentum stalled below 87k · RSI 46 · price 82,809.80
Lower highs off the 87k ceiling; two-week range 79.7k–84.3k holding above EMA50.
BTC has stair-stepped higher since the 19 Aug breakout from the 62–65k base. The advance stalled at the 87k ceiling, which capped price four times between 21 Sept and 5 Oct before the market rolled into a sequence of lower highs. For two weeks price has held a range between the october low at 79,740 and the lower high near 84,260; that low is a 61.8% retracement of the Sept swing and was tested and held on the hot core PPI day. Price sits just above EMA20 and above a flattening EMA50 near 80,600, with RSI neutral at 46, as Fed hike pricing weighs and a softer USD offers partial offset.
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the october low at 79,740 would break the 61.8% fib and the EMA50, exposing the sept low at 74,900
- Close above the lower high at 84,260 and the october lower highs line would negate the pullback structure, with the 87k ceiling the cycle cap
- Thursday jobless claims and Friday flash PMIs plus UoM inflation expectations could shift Fed hike pricing and this read