21:09 UTC
Sideways after August breakout, lower highs · RSI 40 · price 81,050.74
Five-week range 79,737–87,273 with lower highs; floor not yet broken.
The mid-August breakout from the 62–65k base ran to a September 21 peak at the 87,273 range top. Since then three tests near 87k have failed and the bounces have topped lower. The latest came Thursday, when a lower high at 84,797 rejected and the session closed at 81,050. That close sits under EMA20 and the flattening EMA50, at roughly the 50% retracement of the September swing. RSI near 40 shows momentum fading, but the october low at 79,737 (near the 61.8% level) still holds the floor. With no crypto-specific driver in the feed, BTC is trading as a USD-liquidity proxy, and the reversal came on the day of a firm 194K jobless claims print.
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the october low at 79,737 breaks the range floor and the 61.8% fib, exposing the sept low at 74,902
- Rising support from the September low runs near 80,900 now; failure there marks the first break of the post-September higher-low line
- Recovery back above the ema50 near 82,300 and then the 84,797 lower high would neutralise the lower-high sequence and reopen the 87,273 range top
- Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM 1y inflation expectations (f/c 4.7%) could materially shift this read; Fed decision next week