Lower highs from Wednesday's 84797 peak; basing just above Tuesday low.
Wednesday's NY-session rally to the 84797 week high unwound in full. Selling started in the Asia session, ran through London and set a new week low at 80833 during NY hours, after the 194K jobless-claims beat undercut easing hopes. Price has since reclaimed the tuesday low near 81120 but sits under EMA(20) and the weekly open at 82030. A late-day cap at 81480 and a line of lower highs are holding the bounce. RSI(14) near 37 printed a higher low at the week low against the steeper morning extreme, a sign the downside momentum is fading.
Support: 81,120.00, 80,833.00
Resistance: 81,480.00, 82,030.00, 83,305.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the tuesday low at 81120 negates the false break and reopens the week low at 80833
Recovery through the late-day cap at 81480 and the lower-highs line would put the weekly open at 82030 back in focus
The tuesday high at 83305 lines up with the 61.8% fib of the Wed-Thu drop; it is the upper boundary of any retracement
Fri 13:45-14:00 UTC US PMIs and UoM 1y inflation expectations could materially shift this read
22:06 UTC
Downtrend after Wednesday's double top · RSI 35 · price 81,385.37
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's Asia break, basing above tue low.
Tuesday's NY-session spike off 81,200 coincided with the Pending Home Sales miss and extended into a Wednesday high at 84,797, which formed a double top with the late-Wednesday 84,782 print. Thursday broke the 84,080 neckline in the Asia session and sold off through London and NY to an 80,833 week low, erasing the week's gain below the week open at 81,688, with the firm 194K claims print adding to the USD-liquidity headwind. RSI(14) recovered from about 25 at the low to 35, and price is basing between the tue low near 81,120 and 81,460 under EMA20 (~81,890) and a short line of lower highs.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the week open at 81,688 and EMA20 near 81,890 would break the lower highs sequence and challenge the downtrend read
Failure to hold the tue low at 81,120 exposes the week low at 80,833, with the round number at 80,000 below
A rebound that stalls below the 38.2% fib at 82,347 keeps the Thursday sell-off structure intact
Fri 13:45/14:00 UTC S&P PMIs and UoM 1y inflation expectations (f/c 4.7%) could materially shift this read
21:09 UTC
Downtrend, holding near the weekly open · RSI 32 · price 81,181.60
Lower highs since Wednesday's 84,797 peak; breakout fully unwound.
Wednesday's NY-open break above Tuesday's 83,305 spike high peaked at 84,797. The move then unwound from Thursday's Asia session, setting an 80,833 week low in NY hours, and price is back at the weekly open near 81,150. Lower highs have capped every bounce since, with price below EMA(20) near 81,900 and RSI(14) only recovering into the low 30s; the 194K jobless-claims beat added a mild headwind during the NY session.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 80,833 week low extends the lower-high, lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the weekly open at 81,150 confirms a full round-trip of the week's gains
Close above the 81,459 bounce high and EMA(20) near 81,900 breaks the lower-highs trendline
Recovery into the 38.2% fib at 82,347 would mark the first meaningful retracement of the 84,797–80,833 drop
Friday's US PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:05 UTC
Downtrend, full reversal of the week's rally · RSI 32 · price 81,392.36
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 84,797 week high; price back near the weekly open.
Wednesday's NY-open breakout above 83,590 printed the 84,797 week high but did not hold. The reversal started in Thursday's Asia session, broke the wed low at 82,515, and ran through London and NY to a week low of 80,833. The extension came after the 194K jobless claims beat kept the firm-USD headwind in place. Price is now basing just above the weekly open near 80,900 with RSI(14) in the low 30s, while the H1 ema20 near 81,850 and a line of lower highs cap the bounce.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 near 81,850 and the lower-highs line would ease the downtrend read
Failure to hold the weekly open at 80,900 and the 80,833 week low would extend the lower-low sequence and erase the week's gain
Reclaiming the wed low at 82,515, near the 38.2–50% fib zone of the week high to week low drop, would signal the drop is retracing
Friday 13:45 UTC PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Wednesday high 84797 fully unwound, lower highs below EMA20.
From the Sunday open near 80800, the week extended to a 84797 high during NY hours Wednesday. Thursday's sell-off then erased the whole Tuesday–Wednesday advance: it broke the rising trendline in Asia hours and pressed lower through London and NY. The NY dip briefly cut through Tuesday's 81120 low to the thursday low at 80833 before closing back above it, with bounces capped beneath the EMA(20) near 82050 and RSI(14) lifting from the mid-20s to ~31. The digest frames BTC as a USD/rates proxy, and today's jobless claims beat (194K vs 200K) fits the softer risk tone into Friday.
Support: 80,832.98, 80,601.24
Resistance: 81,768.40, 82,050.00, 82,347.09
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the fib 23.6 at 81768 and the ema20 near 82050 would break the lower-high sequence from the Thursday sell-off
A bounce stalling below the fib 38.2 at 82347 keeps the move corrective within the downtrend
Failure to hold the thursday low at 80833 exposes the week low at 80601, near Sunday's open
Friday 13:45–14:00 UTC flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
18:06 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after full rally reversal · RSI 20 · price 81,129.65
Lower highs since Wednesday's 84797 peak, back at week open.
Thursday unwound the entire Tuesday–Wednesday rally from 81203 to 84797, which had been driven by two NY-open legs. The rally line gave way in the Asia session, selling extended through London, and the US claims beat (194K) alongside a rebounding USD coincided with a new Thursday low at 80833 during NY hours. Price is now back at the week open near 81118, well below EMA(20) around 82100, with RSI(14) oversold near 19 and only marginally above its Asia-session reading despite the lower low.
Support: 81,118.00, 80,833.00, 80,601.00
Resistance: 81,770.00, 82,100.00, 82,347.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 23.6% fib at 81770 and EMA(20) near 82100 would break the lower-high sequence
A recovery into the 38.2% fib at 82347 would mark the first meaningful retracement of Thursday's leg
Failure to hold the week open at 81118 and the Thursday low at 80833 exposes Sunday's week low at 80601
Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC US flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
17:07 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 28 · price 81,168.61
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's high; the week's rally fully retraced to the weekly open.
Wednesday's NY-session week high at 84797 capped the advance, and price has since unwound the whole week's gain. The sharpest leg came in today's Asia session, with follow-through through London and NY that set a day low at 80833, just under the weekly open near 80901. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 28, and the NY extension lower lines up with the firmer USD after the 194K jobless claims beat.
Support: 80,900.91, 80,832.98, 80,601.24
Resistance: 81,989.71, 82,347.00, 82,815.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 80833 day low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 80601 week low in view
Failure to hold the weekly open at 80901 turns the week net negative on this timeframe
Recovery above the 81990 lower high from NY hours breaks the lower-high sequence; the fib 38.2 near 82347 and the fib 50 near 82815 of the decline sit above
Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via the USD
Double top at 84,800, lower highs into Tuesday's base.
Wednesday's NY-session push to 84,797 formed a double top with the late-session retest. The break of 84,080 then unwound the entire Tuesday–Wednesday advance through Thursday's Asia and London sessions, with a firmer USD after today's jobless claims beat adding pressure. Price is back on Tuesday's 81,200 swing low, below the 82,030 weekly open and a falling ema20 near 82,360, with RSI(14) pinned at 30–33 but not making a fresh low alongside price; the prior low at 81,120 and Sunday low at 80,601 sit beneath.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 81,120 prior low confirms a lower low and exposes the Sunday low at 80,601
Recovery above the 82,030 weekly open and the ema20 would turn the 81,200 swing low into a double-bottom base
A rebound stalling at the 50% fib of the decline (83,009) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Friday's 13:45–14:00 UTC PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
15:06 UTC
Pullback within weekly range, momentum heavy · RSI 31 · price 81,725.00
Wed double top unwound; higher lows at 81120–81300 intact.
From Sunday's 81100 open the week climbed to an 84797 week high in Wednesday's NY session, building on Tuesday's NY-open spike as weak US housing data softened the dollar. Thursday's Asia and London sessions erased the move from the Wednesday double top on a run of hourly lower highs, with RSI(14) near 31 and price below the EMA20 near 82490. The NY dip after the 194K jobless-claims beat stalled at 81300, the today low, just above the 81120 tue low and near the 78.6% retracement of the week rally, so the week's higher-lows line still holds.
Support: 81,300.00, 81,120.00, 80,600.00
Resistance: 82,070.00, 82,490.00, 84,797.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 81120 tue low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 80600 week low
Recovery through the 82070 bounce high and the EMA20 near 82490 would frame Thursday's drop as a pullback within the weekly range
Friday's 13:45–14:00 UTC S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Retaking the 84797 week high would cancel the double top
Tue–Wed rally fully retraced, lower highs since Thursday's Asia session.
Thursday's Asia-session break below 83,340 started an unwind of the NY-led Tue–Wed rally, which ran from the 81,200 area to the 84,797 week high. Price now sits below a falling EMA(20) near 82,550 with RSI(14) back to ~34 after touching 30. The weak-housing USD slide that lifted BTC into Tuesday's NY open has faded, and the 13:00 UTC bar after the claims beat probed the 81,298 Thu low before closing near 81,600. That leaves price just above the 81,120 Tue low, with hourly highs stepping lower along a lower-high line and the 82,070 bounce high capping the London-session recovery.
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the lower-high line and the 82,070 bounce high would mark the first break in Thursday's lower-high sequence
EMA(20) near 82,550, close to the 38.2% fib of Thursday's drop (~82,635), is the first area to watch for rejection or break on any recovery
Failure to hold the 81,298 Thu low and the 81,120 Tue low exposes Sunday's 80,601 week low
A close back above the 83,340 breakdown level would neutralise the downtrend read
Friday 13:45–14:00 UTC US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 84797 peak; Tue–Wed rally fully reversed.
Wednesday's NY-open breakout to 84797 failed. Thursday's slide began in the Asia session, cut through the 82720 asia shelf and extended through London to a 81562 session low, erasing the Tuesday–Wednesday advance. The modest US claims beat (194K vs 200K) kept a mild USD-supportive tone, and the bounce stalled just above the weekly open near 82030. Price sits well below EMA(20) (~82600) under a line of lower highs, with RSI(14) holding around 30 rather than pushing deeper as price retests the lows.
Support: 81,562.18, 81,119.67, 80,601.24
Resistance: 82,600.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the weekly open at 82030 and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 81562 session low exposes the tuesday low at 81120, then the sunday low at 80601
A new low with RSI(14) holding above its Thursday morning reading would form a bullish RSI divergence
Recovery through EMA(20) near 82600 and the asia shelf at 82720 would put the 38.2% fib of the selloff (~82800) in play
Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 84800 double top, below 61.8% fib.
BTCUSD ran from Sunday's 80601 low to an 84797 week high by Wednesday. NY-session legs drove the move, first on Tuesday's soft housing data and then on Wednesday's risk-on flows. A double top near 84800 gave way late Wednesday, and selling through Thursday's Asia session and London open took price to 81562, giving back more than the 61.8% fib of the week's rally. EMA(20) has now crossed below EMA(50) and RSI(14) sits oversold near 29, though price still holds above the tuesday low and the weekly open.
Support: 81,562.00, 81,120.00
Resistance: 82,204.00, 84,797.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the thursday low at 81562, near the 78.6% fib at 81499, opens the path toward the tuesday low at 81120
Recovery above the 61.8% fib at 82204 and the lower-highs trendline would ease the reversal read, with ema20 near 82700 next
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via the USD
11:06 UTC
Sharp short-term downtrend inside the week's range · RSI 34 · price 81,956.74
Failed breakout at the week high, lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday.
Wednesday's NY-session push through the 83,590 prior high stalled in a double top near 84,800, and Thursday's Asia slide extended into London to an 81,562 London low. That move gave back the whole Tuesday-to-Wednesday rally and left price near its 78.6% retracement, well below EMA(20) at ~82,830, with RSI(14) lifting only to the mid-30s after bottoming near 30. The rising line from Sunday's low was undercut intraday but price closed back on it. With no BTC-specific news and DXY near a three-week low, the selling looks crypto-driven rather than dollar-led.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 82,071 bounce high and the 82,524 61.8% fib would weaken the lower-high sequence; EMA(20) near 82,830 sits just above
Hourly acceptance below the rising line and the 81,562 London low exposes the 81,120 Tue low, then the 80,601 Sun low
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 200K) could shift USD and risk tone into the NY session
Friday's PMIs and UoM inflation expectations (1y f/c 4.7%) could reprice Fed hike bets and move this read
Lower highs since Wednesday's peak; ~70% of the week's advance retraced.
BTC built the week's advance from Sunday's 80,601 week low to Wednesday's 84,797 week high. Both the Tuesday and Wednesday legs extended into the NY open as the USD slid to three-week lows. That move has been unwound since Thursday's Asia session and into London: a run of lower highs took price back below EMA(20) near 82,920 and through the 61.8% fib at 82,204, before a Thu low at 81,562 just above the 78.6% level. RSI(14) is near 30 as price retests the rising line from Sunday's low, with Tuesday's 81,203 low the next base below.
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 61.8% fib at 82,204 would interrupt the lower-highs sequence; a reclaim of ema20 near 82,920 would neutralise the reversal
Failure to hold the Thu low at 81,562 and the rising line exposes the tue low at 81,203, then the week low at 80,601
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via the USD
09:06 UTC
Short-term downturn, full retrace of Tue–Wed rally · RSI 28 · price 81,730.99
Rising trendline broken; lower highs and lower lows through Asia into London open.
BTC gave back the entire Tuesday–Wednesday advance during today's Asia session. Price slid from the 84797 week high through the rising trendline and the ema20 into London open, even with the dollar near a three-week low. It now sits below the 78.6% retracement of the rally and is approaching the 81203 Tuesday low, with RSI(14) near 28 in oversold territory. Overhead, the Asia shelf around 82600 is the first former support, and the ema20 and EMA50 are converging near 83000.
Support: 81,202.57, 80,601.24
Resistance: 82,600.00, 83,000.00, 84,796.62
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 81203 Tuesday low exposes Sunday's 80601 week low
Recovery back above the 82600 Asia shelf would ease the breakdown read; the ema20/EMA50 cluster near 83000 sits above
EMA20 crossing below EMA50 near 83000 would confirm the momentum rollover on this timeframe
Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC today (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Retest of the broken rising trendline from below, showing rejection or reclaim
08:04 UTC
Sharp pullback inside a broader 81,200–84,800 range · RSI 27 · price 82,129.55
Failed breakout, lower highs each hour since Asia.
Wednesday's NY-session push through the tuesday high at 83,305 ran to a 84,797 week high. That move unwound almost fully during today's Asia session, and the 01:00 UTC bar cut through the rising trendline from Tuesday's 81,203 low. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), just above the 82,055 session low and the 78.6% fib at 81,972. RSI(14) is near 27 and each hour since Asia has printed a lower high. The digest flags no BTC-specific driver: the softer USD has not lifted price, and the selling looks crypto-native into today's US data.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 61.8% fib at 82,576 and the lower-highs line would interrupt the hourly downside sequence
Failure to hold the session low at 82,055 and the 78.6% fib at 81,972 opens the tuesday low at 81,203
Only a recovery above the tuesday high at 83,305 negates the false break read
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 200K) and Friday's PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Wednesday's week high; price back inside the Mon–Tue range.
Wednesday's NY-session push through Tuesday's 83,305 spike high ran to an 84,797 week high, but that move has fully unwound. A roughly 1,300-point slide at Thursday's Asia open broke the rally trendline and took price back below the 61.8% retracement near 82,575. Price now sits under EMA(20) near 83,320 with RSI(14) at 37, and the session low at 82,386 is the nearest floor above the weekly open at 82,202. There is no BTC-specific catalyst in the feed; the hot core PPI print is a mild macro headwind.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 82,202 weekly open exposes the 78.6% fib near 81,970 and the Tuesday low at 81,203
Post-drop shelf high at 82,950, then EMA(20) near 83,320: reclaiming both would break the lower-high sequence
Retake of the 84,797 week high would negate the false-break read
US jobless claims today 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Friday's flash PMIs could materially shift this read
06:05 UTC
Uptrend, deep pullback from week high · RSI 39 · price 82,727.89
NY-session impulses drove the week. Tuesday's NY open lifted price off the 81,203 tuesday low, and Wednesday's extended it to the 84,797 week high. Today's Asia session unwound roughly 2,200 with no BTC-specific catalyst in the feed, breaking the rising trendline and printing an asian low at 82,584, right on the 61.8% retracement of the Tue-Wed impulse. Price now sits below the ema20 near 83,450 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) at 39, back inside Tuesday's post-breakout consolidation band.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 82,584 asian low and the 82,287 swing low exposes the 81,203 tuesday low, the week's last higher low
Recovery above the 83,000 fib 50% and the ema20 near 83,450 would restore the pullback-within-uptrend read, with the 84,797 week high above
US initial jobless claims at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 200K) and Friday's PMIs could materially shift this read
05:06 UTC
Weekly uptrend, sharp pullback from week high · RSI 40 · price 82,846.76
Higher lows since Sunday; double top at 84800 broke 84078 neckline.
BTCUSD built higher lows from Sunday's 80601 base, and both legs higher came in the NY session. On Tuesday price ran from the 81202 tue low to an 83305 tue high as soft US housing data knocked the dollar, then on Wednesday it extended to an 84797 week high. Two tests of 84780–84800 formed a double top, and the neckline at 84078 gave way into the Asia session, dropping price to an Asia low of 82611, below EMA(20) near 83500 and EMA(50) near 83160, with RSI(14) back near 40 and just under the 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday rally.
Support: 82,611.00, 82,514.00, 81,202.00
Resistance: 83,305.00, 84,078.00, 84,797.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 82514 swing low breaks the Wednesday higher-low sequence and exposes rising support near 81800 and the 81202 tue low
Recovery above the 83305 tue high and EMA(20) near 83500 would neutralise the double top read, with the 84078 neckline next overhead
Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via the USD
04:04 UTC
Pullback within this week's advance, momentum turning lower · RSI 33 · price 82,875.73
Double top at 84,800, deep retracement of Tue–Wed rally.
Tuesday's NY-open breakout from the 81,200 base carried price to an 84,797 week high during NY hours Wednesday, and a second test at 84,780 late Wednesday was rejected, leaving a double top. The Asia session unwound most of that leg, cutting through the rising trendline and EMA(20) to an 82,611 Asia low near the 61.8% fib, with RSI(14) sliding into the low 30s. There is no BTC-specific news in the feed; the macro digest frames the hot core PPI and a hawkish-Fed backdrop as a mild headwind, even as the USD itself trades soft.
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 50% fib at 83,000 and EMA(20) near 83,650 would ease the double-top read
Failure to hold the 82,611 Asia low and 61.8% fib exposes the 82,160 pullback low from Tuesday's breakout
A break below the 82,160 pullback low puts the Tuesday low at 81,202 back in focus and negates the week's higher-low sequence
Initial jobless claims at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
03:05 UTC
Uptrend since Sunday, sharp pullback from week high · RSI 38 · price 82,910.69
Double top at 84,797 broke down; breakout above 83,590 failed.
Wednesday's NY-open breakout stalled in a double top at 84,797/84,782 and unwound after the NY close into the Asia session. Price has fallen back below the 83,590 prior high, a false break, and is below EMA(20) near 83,720 and the 50% fib of the Tuesday-to-Wednesday impulse at 83,000. The Asian low at 82,721 is holding just above the 61.8% fib at 82,576, while the higher-low trendline from Sunday's 80,601 low sits lower near 81,760. RSI(14) has rolled from the 60s to ~38 without reaching oversold, and the feed carries no BTC-specific catalyst; the macro backdrop is only a mild headwind after the hot 5% core PPI.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 50% fib at 83,000 and EMA(20) near 83,720 would recast the drop as a deep pullback within the weekly uptrend
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 82,576 exposes the 82,162 swing low from Tuesday's post-spike retrace
Break of the higher-low trendline near 81,760 would end the sequence of higher lows since Sunday
Reclaim of the 84,797 double top would invalidate the reversal read
US initial jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via the USD
Higher lows since Sunday; rising trendline broken in Asia session.
The rally from Sunday's 80,601 low built on higher lows. Tuesday's and Wednesday's NY opens delivered the main legs to an 84,797 week high. Supply capped three attempts near the 84,800 week high into Wednesday's close. Thursday's Asia session then broke the rising trendline from Tuesday's low, dropping price below EMA(20) and onto the 38.2% fib / EMA(50) confluence near 83,200, with RSI(14) slipping back under 50. The macro backdrop remains a hawkish-Fed headwind after last week's hot core PPI, with no BTC-specific driver behind the drop.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 38.2% fib at 83,200 and Wednesday's 83,160 swing low exposes the 50% fib near 82,700
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 82,200 would break the higher-low sequence from Sunday
Recovery above the 84,000 round number and EMA(20) restores the uptrend read; the 84,800 week high remains the cap
Wednesday's 83,590 prior high now sits overhead as the first resistance on any rebound
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Friday's PMIs could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Sunday, 84,000–84,800 range at week high.
BTC has built higher lows since Sunday's 80,601 low. The week's impulse came in two legs: Tuesday's London-NY transition spike through 83,300 as soft US housing data trimmed hike bets and the dollar eased, then Wednesday's London-session break above the 83,590 breakout pt. Price has since stalled in a 84,000–84,800 range under a small double top at the 84,797 week high. RSI(14) has cooled from ~80 to ~59, and price is holding just above EMA(20) near 83,930 while testing the rising trendline from Tuesday's low.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 83,985 range floor and EMA(20) confirms the double top and breaks the rising trendline, putting the 83,590 breakout pt and the 38.2% fib near 83,190 in view
Reclaiming the 84,274 lower high, then a close above the 84,797 week high, resumes the uptrend structure, with the 85,000 round number next above
US Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) and Friday's flash PMIs/UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via USD and Fed hike pricing
00:06 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling off the week high · RSI 57 · price 84,046.44
Higher lows since Sunday; pullback testing rising support and ema20.
BTC has carved higher lows since Sunday's 80,601 low. The Tuesday NY-session impulse off 81,203 lined up with the soft US housing prints and the softer USD, and Wednesday's NY push cleared the 83,590 prior high to a 84,797 week high. RSI(14) peaked near 80 on that breakout and has cooled to ~57 after the late-Wednesday slide from 84,775, leaving price just above the ema20 near 83,900 and on the rising support line from Tuesday's low.
What it said to watch
H1 close below rising support and the ema20 near 83,900 opens a deeper pullback toward the 83,590 prior high
Failure to hold the 83,160 swing low, near EMA(50) and the 38.2% impulse fib, breaks the higher-low sequence
Reclaim of the 84,797 week high puts the 85,000 round number in play
Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims and Friday's PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via Fed hike pricing