21:07 UTC
Uptrend stalled, lower highs since Sep top · RSI 40 · price 80,737.09
Double top at 87.1–87.3k, range 79.2k–84.8k.
The Aug 19 breakout from the 62–65k base carried price to an 87,272 cycle high on Sep 21. A retest at 87,058 on Oct 2 completed a double top, and the Oct 7 close below the 82,600 neckline shifted structure to a 79,200–84,800 range. Price is now below EMA(20) and a flattening EMA(50), with the Oct 21 lower high at 84,797 and an Oct 24 swing low at 79,174 near the 61.8% retracement of the Sep leg. Firm USD data and a no-rush Fed into Wednesday's FOMC give a mild macro headwind.
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 79,174 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 74,903 sep low
- Close above the 84,797 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 87,272 cycle high
- Holding the 61.8% fib near 79,630 keeps the Sep leg's retracement intact
- FOMC decision Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a dovish surprise is the larger upside shock