21:10 UTC
Downtrend from the Sep 21 peak, pressing 80,000 · RSI 39 · price 80,072.82
Lower highs (87.3k, 86.9k, 84.8k) and marginal lower lows (80.3k, 79.7k, 79.2k).
The August breakout topped out in a double top at 87,273 on Sep 21 and 87,058 on Oct 2. The Oct 8 close below the 82,566 neckline turned the structure lower, and the Oct 21 rally met rejection at a 84,797 lower high. Price is now pressing the 80,000 psych level and the 79,174 swing low, below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 82,000, with RSI near 39. Firm US data and sticky inflation expectations have kept a lid on risk appetite into Fed week.
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 79,174 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 74,903 September low
- Recovery back above the 82,566 neckline and the EMA cluster near 82,000 would neutralise the double top read
- Close above the 84,797 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend structure
- Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC: statement tone on inflation expectations could materially shift this read; Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC sets pre-Fed tone