21:09 UTC
Pullback in a broader uptrend, lower highs since Sep 22 · RSI 40 · price 80,045.85
Lower highs from the 87,270 cycle high, lows stepping down near 80k.
BTC has printed five weeks of lower highs since the 87,270 cycle high on Sep 22. The Oct 23 rally was rejected at the 84,800 lower high, and daily lows have stepped down to the 79,170 swing low on Oct 25. Price is pinned near 80,000, below EMA(20) around 81,900 and fractionally under a flattening EMA(50), and is testing the 61.8% retracement of the September rally near 79,630. Firm US data and a bid USD into Fed week have kept rebounds shallow.
What it said to watch
- D1 close below the 79,170 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the Sep low near 74,900
- Recovery above ema20 near 81,900 and the lower-high line would ease the pullback read; a close above 84,800 breaks the lower-high chain
- FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC (hold at 4% expected) and the 18:30 UTC presser; hawkish guidance is the digest's base case and could test the 61.8% fib
- Thu 12:30 UTC Core PCE (MoM f/c 0.3%, YoY f/c 3.1%) could materially shift this read