Higher lows from London low; tight band above broken 80,732 double high.
BTC built higher lows off the 79,405 London low, cleared the Asian range high at 80,270 and then broke the 80,732 double high during the late NY session. A spike to the 81,184 spike high was rejected, and price has since held a 80,685–80,976 band just above that prior high. RSI(14) is near 66, not stretched, ahead of Wednesday's FOMC.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 80,685 fails the retest of the 80,732 prior high and exposes the 80,532 swing low, with the fib 38.2 at 80,505 just under it
Close above the 80,976 range top reopens the 81,184 spike high
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC, presser 18:30 UTC: a hawkish-hold tone could materially shift this read
Higher lows from London false break; tight range after a rejected spike.
London briefly broke the Asian low to 79405 before reversing. NY then built a higher-low chain through 80351 and 80550, despite firm US durables data into Fed week. A late spike to the 81184 spike high was rejected, and price is now ranging between the 80685 range low and the 80977 range top, holding the rising higher-low line and the 23.6% fib of the rally near 80765.
Support: 80,685.00, 80,550.00, 80,351.00
Resistance: 80,977.00, 81,000.00, 81,184.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80685 range low and the higher-low line exposes the 80550 swing low
Loss of the 80550 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence back toward the 80351 higher low
Close above the 80977 range top reopens the 81000 round number and the 81184 spike high
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London low; post-NY consolidation 80711–80977.
BTC rallied from the 79405 London low through the 80271 Asian high during NY. The move then extended past 80732, but the 21:30 UTC spike to the 81185 spike high was rejected. Since then price has settled into a tight range low/range high band of 80711–80977 in thin post-NY trade, with RSI(14) near 60 and firm US data (Durable Goods 1.8% vs 0.6%) doing little to dent the bid.
Support: 80,711.12, 80,532.31, 80,270.60
Resistance: 80,976.82, 81,184.59
What it said to watch
Close below the 80711 range low also breaks rising support and exposes the 80532 swing low
Close above the 80977 range high reopens the 81185 spike high
Loss of the 80271 Asian high, near the 50% fib, would undo the NY breakout
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the London low; tight range under the spike high.
BTC has built a higher-low chain from the 79,405 London-session low and cleared the Asian range high near 80,270 in NY, even with USD firm after the strong Durable Goods beat. The 21:30 UTC spike to the 81,185 spike high was rejected. Since NY close, price has held a tight 80,711–80,930 range, with the range floor at 80,711 and RSI near 57.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,977 lower high reopens a test of the 81,185 spike high
Loss of the 80,711 range floor exposes the 80,532 swing low and rising support
Break below the 80,352 ny pivot low invalidates the higher-low chain
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read; a hawkish hold firming USD is the digest's base case
22:48 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after a rejected spike · RSI 63 · price 80,799.02
Higher lows since the London low; tight range above the broken prior highs.
Higher lows from the 79405 London low carried through NY. A late-NY spike to the 81185 spike high was rejected, and price is now holding an 80715–80977 range just above the 80730 prior highs into the early Asia session. RSI(14) is cooling near 63, and the grind has held up despite firm US data and DXY at two-week highs.
Support: 80,730.00, 80,532.00
Resistance: 80,977.00, 81,185.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 80730 prior highs would turn the late-NY breakout into a false break and expose the 80532 swing low
Close above the 80977 range high reopens the 81185 spike high
Price is sitting on rising support from the 14:00 UTC low; a clean break of that line ends the higher-low chain
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) is the next scheduled catalyst, with thin Asia trade until then
Higher lows from 79,405; break of 80,732 double high, wick rejection at 81,184.
Firm US data, including Durable Goods at 1.8% vs 0.6%, did not cap the climb from the 79,405 London low. After NY close, price cleared the 80,732 double high and spiked to 81,184 at 21:30 UTC, then retraced most of the wick; it now holds an 80,745–80,977 band just above the broken prior high in thin early-Asia trade. The higher-low chain on rising support (NY low 80,351 to swing low 80,550) is intact, the fib 23.6% sits near 80,765, and RSI(14) is around 64, not stretched.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 80,732 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
A close above the 80,977 post-spike high reopens a test of the 81,184 spike high
Loss of rising support and the 80,550 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low chain, exposing the 80,351 NY low near fib 38.2%
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish hold is the digest's base case
Higher lows from London low; breakout above prior high, wick rejection at spike high.
London swept below the Asian range low to 79405. NY then broke above the 80271 Asian high and stepped higher lows up to the 80732 prior high, despite a firm USD into Fed week. A late-NY jump to the 81185 spike high was rejected, leaving a long upper wick, and price is holding just above the prior high near 80830 with RSI(14) around 66.
Support: 80,732.09, 80,550.29, 80,295.07
Resistance: 80,976.82, 81,000.00, 81,184.59
What it said to watch
A close back below the 80732 prior high turns the late-NY breakout into a false break and exposes the 80550 swing low.
Failure to hold the 80550 swing low breaks the higher-low chain, with the fib 50% at 80295 next.
Acceptance above the 80977 lower high and the 81000 round number reopens the 81185 spike high.
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read; a hawkish-hold tone is the base case in the digest.
Higher lows from 79405 London low; 80732 prior high broken, spike rejected at 81185.
A higher-low chain off the 79405 London low pushed through the Asian high near 80270 around the 12:30 UTC US data. After the NY close, a spike broke the twice-tested 80732 prior high but was rejected hard at 81185. Price now sits on the 23.6% fib (~80765) just above that prior high, with RSI(14) near 59 after cooling from the spike.
Support: 80,732.00, 80,532.00, 80,405.00
Resistance: 80,977.00, 81,185.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 80732 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 80532 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the intraday HL chain, exposing the 80405 swing low
Close above the 80977 lower high reopens the 81185 spike high
Thin Asia session liquidity; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London low, breakout above 80,732.
London swept below the Asian range low to 79,405, then NY built a higher-low chain that cleared the twice-tested 80,732 prior high with a late-NY spike to the 81,185 spike high. The spike was rejected back toward 80,900 and RSI(14) is near 68. Firm US data and a bid USD into the Fed have not stopped the climb.
What it said to watch
Hold of 80,732 prior high keeps the breakout intact; a close back below it reads as a false break
M15 close above the 81,000 round number and the 81,185 spike high extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the rising line near the 80,550 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence; the 80,351 ny pullback low is next
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC with presser at 18:30 could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below the high · RSI 57 · price 80,664.17
HH/HL from the London low, now a tight late-NY range under equal highs.
BTC climbed from the 79,405 London low to 80,732 through NY, holding the rally despite firm US data and a bid USD. Two rejections at the 80,732 equal highs since 17:15 UTC have capped price, leaving a post-NY range of 80,532–80,732 with RSI(14) near 57.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,732 equal highs breaks the range and opens the 81,000 round number
Failure to hold the 80,532 range low exposes the 80,352 swing low, then the fib 50% retracement near 80,069
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since NY open; equal highs capping at 80732.
The rally from the 79405 London low broke above the Asian high at 80270 after the firm US Durable Goods beat, then built higher lows through NY. Late in the NY session price is pinned under equal highs at 80732, rejected twice, with a potential double top in place above the 80351 higher low and the 80532 swing low. RSI(14) is around 61.
Support: 80,532.31
Resistance: 80,732.09, 81,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80732 equal highs voids the double top read and opens the 81000 round number
Close below the 80532 swing low breaks the higher-lows line
Failure to hold the 80351 higher low completes the double top and exposes the 80270 Asian high
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC with presser 18:30 UTC; a hawkish hold could pressure BTC as USD firms
Higher lows under a double high at 80732, Asian range broken to the upside.
BTC bounced from the London low at 79405 and broke the Asian high near 80270 in the first hour of NY, shrugging off a firm USD after the Durable Goods beat. The NY rally extended to a double high at 80732, tagged at 17:15 and 19:45 UTC, with the higher low at 80532 and the 80351 swing low holding into the NY close. RSI(14) is neutral near 57.
Support: 80,532.31
Resistance: 80,732.09, 81,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80732 double high opens the 81000 round number
Break of the higher-low line through 80532 shifts the read to a range below 80732
Loss of the 80351 swing low exposes the asian high retest and the fib 38.2% near 80225
Thin trade after the NY close; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC are the next major catalysts
Higher lows since the 79405 London low; equal highs at 80732 capping.
London swept below the Asian range to a 79405 low before NY broke the asian high at 80270, with firm US durables doing little to stall the leg. Price has since stalled in an 80351–80732 range late in the NY session, rejected twice at the 80732 double high. The latest pullback low at 80532 is holding, RSI(14) is neutral near 51, and price sits just above EMA20.
Support: 80,532.31
Resistance: 80,732.09, 81,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80732 double high extends the higher-high sequence toward 81000 psych
Break of the 80532 pullback low exposes the 80351 swing low
Loss of the 80351 swing low would complete a double high and break the rising-lows trendline
Return below the 80270 asian high would undo the NY breakout
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major risk for this read
20:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at day high · RSI 54 · price 80,591.25
Higher lows from 79405 London low; equal highs at 80732 capping late NY.
After setting the day's low at 79405 early in London, BTC cleared the asian high at 80271 as firm US data hit at 12:30 UTC. The NY session then built higher lows to the 80351 swing low and printed matching day high tests at 80732. Price is consolidating just above EMA20 (~80525) into the late-NY hours, with RSI(14) near 54, neutral.
Support: 80,512.00, 80,351.00, 80,271.00
Resistance: 80,732.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80732 day high extends the higher-high chain; a second rejection there leaves equal highs as a cap
Loss of the 80512 minor low puts the 80351 swing low (≈38.2% of the NY leg) in focus
Break below 80351 swing low ends the higher-low sequence; asian high at 80271 is the next reference
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC with presser at 18:30 could materially shift this read
20:19 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 59 · price 80,672.16
Higher lows from 79405, equal highs at 80732 capping.
London undercut the Asian low to 79405 before the firm 12:30 UTC US data tape coincided with a push through the Asian high at 80271. NY extended to an 80732 session high, now tagged twice, with late-NY dips holding the 80512 micro low and RSI(14) cooling to 59.
Support: 80,512.00, 80,351.00, 80,271.00
Resistance: 80,732.00, 81,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80732 session high opens the 81000 round number
Break of the 80351 swing low ends the higher-low chain and the trend support line from 79405
Return below the Asian high at 80271 would turn the breakout into a false break
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London low; equal highs at 80732.
London swept the Asian low at 79478 down to 79406 before a HH/HL chain broke the Asian high at 80271 after the firm US Durable Goods print (1.8% vs 0.6%). Late NY session price is pressing the 80732 session high for a second time with RSI(14) at 66. Higher lows at 79774 and 80352 define the rising trendline, and a 80512 swing low sits underneath.
Support: 80,512.33, 80,351.51, 80,270.60
Resistance: 80,732.09, 81,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80732 session high opens the 81000 round number
A second rejection at 80732 plus loss of the 80512 swing low exposes the 80352 higher low and the rising trendline
Break below the 80352 higher low ends the HH/HL chain; Asian high at 80271 and the 38.2% fib (~80225) of the 79406–80732 leg are next
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major driver and could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since the NY-open dip; range top 80667 cleared.
London swept below the Asian low to the 79405 London low, then reversed. Price cleared the 80270 Asian high around the 12:30 UTC US data and has printed higher lows at 79774, 80340 and 80351 through NY. Late in the NY session, price has cleared the 80667 range top and is retesting the 80732 session high with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 80,667.00, 80,351.00, 80,270.00
Resistance: 80,732.00, 81,000.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 80732 session high opens the 81000 round number; a second rejection there leaves a double-top test in place
A slip back below the 80667 range top returns price to the 80351–80667 consolidation and neutralises the breakout
A break of the 80351 higher low and the rising lows trendline ends the HH/HL chain, with the 80270 Asian high next
No US data is left today; the FOMC decision on Wed at 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled driver into a thinner Asia session
HH/HL chain from the London low, now boxed 80350–80730 below the session high.
BTC climbed in a HH/HL chain from the 79405 London low through the Asian high at 80270 during NY hours, firm US data notwithstanding. Late NY it is holding a 80350–80730 box, with a lower high at 80667 under the session high and RSI(14) cooling to ~58.
Support: 80,000.00
Resistance: 80,732.09, 81,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80732 session high extends the HH chain toward the 81000 round number
Loss of the 80350 swing low breaks the HL sequence and exposes the Asian high near 80270, then the 80000 round number and the 38.2% fib
A break below rising support from the London low ends the intraday uptrend read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) is the next major risk for this read
HH/HL chain from the 79405 London low; late-NY consolidation 80351–80732.
London swept the 79474 Asian low to 79405 before reversing. NY then cleared the 80270 Asian high around the durable goods beat and printed a 80732 session high. Late NY is consolidating 80351–80732 and sitting on the higher-low line, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 79,774.15
Resistance: 80,667.16, 80,732.09, 81,000.00
What it said to watch
A break below the 80351 higher low ends the HH/HL chain and the higher-low line read
An M15 close above the 80732 session high opens the path to the 81000 round number
Repeated rejection at the 80667 recent high keeps the 80351–80732 box intact
Loss of the 80270 Asian high exposes the 38.2% fib near 80225 and the 79774 swing low
FOMC on Wed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; pre-Fed trade may compress the range
Higher lows from 79,405; lower high at 80,624 under the 80,732 peak.
London's break of the Asian low to 79,405 reversed into a NY-session breakout above the 80,270 Asian high. Higher lows carried price to an 80,732 session high, and late-NY dips have held the rising trendline and the 18:00 UTC swing low at 80,351, above the 23.6% of the 79,405–80,732 intraday leg. Firm US durables kept the Fed-week tape hawkish but did not stall the bid; RSI(14) is near 62 and ATR(14) is about $173.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,351 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 80,270 Asian high, then the 80,000 round number
Loss of the rising trendline near 80,500 signals the late-NY lower high at 80,624 is capping
Clearance of the 80,624 lower high and the 80,732 session high would extend the higher-high sequence
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish hold is the digest's base case
Asian low swept and reversed; Asian range broken higher; higher-low chain intact.
London swept below the Asian low and reversed from 79405, clearing the 80271 asian high before NY. The NY low at 79774 held, and the higher-high chain ran to an 80732 session high. Late in the NY session, price is stalling at the 80594 prior high with RSI(14) near 60, while firm US durables keep the backdrop hawkish into FOMC.
Support: 80,270.60, 79,774.15
Resistance: 80,594.24, 80,732.09
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80732 session high extends the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 80351 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low sequence and the higher-low trendline
Pullback into the 38.2% of the 79405–80732 leg (~80225) would test the asian high as support; acceptance back below it turns the range break into a false break
A move back under the 79774 ny low would undo the NY-session recovery
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC, about 23h out, could materially shift risk tone and this read
HH/HL chain from London low; shallow pullback held above Asian high.
After a London sweep below the Asian range to 79,405, BTC built a higher-low sequence through NY hours that the firm Durable Goods beat did not interrupt. It cleared the 80,270 Asian high and printed an 80,732 session high. The pullback after London close found demand at the 80,351 swing low, and price is now pinned between that level and the 80,594 prior high, with RSI(14) near 60.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,351 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 80,270 Asian high
Close above the 80,732 session high opens the 81,000 round number
Loss of the higher-low trendline from the 14:00 UTC low shifts the read to range
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) is the next major risk to this structure
18:17 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back off session high · RSI 61 · price 80,538.31
HH/HL chain from 79405 low; above Asian range.
BTC cleared the 80270 Asian high around the Durable Goods beat and stretched to a session high at 80732 after London close. The pullback held the 80351 swing low, keeping the higher-low chain and rising trendline intact. RSI(14) is near 61, short of an extreme.
Resistance: 80,594.24, 80,732.09
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80351 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Close back under the 80270 Asian high returns price to the overnight range
Repeated rejection at the 80594 prior high and 80732 session high would mark a lower-high attempt
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk that could materially shift this read
18:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 54 · price 80,364.50
Higher lows 79405 → 79774 → 80340; Asian range broken higher.
BTC climbed from the 79405 London low through the Asian high at 80270 to an 80732 session high at 17:15 UTC, despite a firm USD after the Durable Goods beat. Two bars of rejection have since given back about 370, and price is now testing the 80340 swing low with EMA20 just below.
Support: 80,339.52, 80,068.82
Resistance: 80,594.24, 80,732.09
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80340 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the asian high at 80270
Rising trendline from the London low, near 80250, and the fib 50% at 80069 are next if the swing low gives way
Reclaim of the 80594 swing high puts the 80732 session high back in focus
Pre-FOMC positioning into Wed 18:00 UTC could thin late-NY follow-through
Higher highs and higher lows off the London low at 79405.
Price broke the asian high at 80270 around the 12:30 UTC US data, even with the USD firm, and has since stepped up in higher highs and higher lows. The latest swing low is 80340, and the session high at 80732 is capping after London close. RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not stretched, and price sits above rising support from the 79405 low and the 79774 higher low.
Support: 80,339.52, 79,774.15
Resistance: 80,732.09, 81,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80340 swing low breaks the intraday HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 80732 session high puts the 81000 round number in play
Fib 38.2% of the 79405–80732 leg sits near 80225, close to the asian high
Loss of rising support and the 79774 higher low would undo the post-London rally structure
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the 79405 London low, Asian range high broken.
London set the window low at 79405 before a rebound. NY then cleared the 80270 Asian high, defended a higher ny low at 79774 and stepped up to a fresh 80732 session high, all despite a firm USD after strong US data. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not stretched, with the 80339 swing low anchoring the latest leg.
Support: 79,774.15
Resistance: 80,732.09, 81,000.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80339 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low chain
A close back below the 80270 asian high returns price inside the Asian range
An M15 close above the 80732 session high opens the path to the 81000 round number
A break of the rising trendline from the London low, near 80100, would undercut the London-NY leg
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC with the 18:30 UTC presser; a hawkish hold into USD strength could materially shift this read
17:18 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening under session high · RSI 71 · price 80,533.31
Higher highs and higher lows off the 79405 London low; tight consolidation under 80594.
London swept below the Asian low to 79405, then NY carried price through the Asian high at 80270 to a session high at 80594. The move held through firm US data and a firmer dollar. Price is now compressing late in NY hours, capped three times near 80594 while dips hold above the 80340 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 80,340.00, 80,270.00, 80,000.00
Resistance: 80,594.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80594 session high breaks the consolidation
Loss of the 80340 pullback low puts the 80270 Asian high back in play as a retest
Break of the 80000 round number, which is also the 50% fib of the 79405–80594 leg, undercuts the breakout read; rising support from 79405 sits near 80070
Thin post-London-close and Asia session trade ahead of Wed FOMC (18:00 UTC decision, 18:30 UTC presser) could shift this read
Higher lows since the 79405 sweep low; holding a tight band below the session high.
London swept the Asian range low at 79474 down to 79405. The NY session then reversed it, clearing the Asian high and the 80375–80381 prior high to print a session high at 80594, despite firm US durables data. After London close, price is compressing between the 80340 pullback low and the session high, with RSI(14) near 64 and no extreme.
Support: 80,375.00, 80,340.00, 79,774.00
Resistance: 80,594.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80594 session high extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 80375 prior high, then the 80340 pullback low, turns the move into a deeper fib retracement toward the 79774 higher low
A break of the rising lows line through 79774 negates the intraday uptrend read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from the London low; NY broke the Asian high, now a tight band under 80594.
London swept the Asian low to 79405 and reversed. NY then broke the asian high at 80271 on a higher-low trendline and printed a session high of 80594, despite firm US data and a two-week DXY high. Late in the NY session, after London close, price is holding a 80340–80590 band with RSI(14) near 63, not stretched.
Support: 80,339.52, 80,270.60, 80,000.00
Resistance: 80,594.24
What it said to watch
Close above the 80594 session high extends the HH chain
Close below the 80340 micro low opens a retest of the asian high at 80271
Loss of 80000 psych, the 50% fib of the London low–NY high leg, undoes the NY breakout
Break of the higher-low trendline through the 79774 swing low flips intraday structure
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) is the next major risk; no US data left today
Higher low at 79774 after London low; Asian high broken, compressing under 80594.
NY session extended the rally off the 79405 London low. Price cleared the Asian high near 80270 and printed a session high at 80594, even as USD firmed on strong durables and CB Confidence. Price is now holding the 80340 swing low above a higher NY low at 79774, with RSI(14) near 62 and not stretched.
Support: 80,340.00, 80,140.00, 79,774.00
Resistance: 80,594.00, 81,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80340 swing low opens a retest of the fib 38.2 near 80140
Break of the 79774 NY low and rising trendline negates the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 80594 session high exposes the 81000 round number
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; USD strength into it is the main headwind
16:18 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, pulling back from session high · RSI 55 · price 80,357.50
Higher low at 79774 then new session high at 80594; price slipping back under the prior high.
The 79405 day low in London gave way to a higher low at 79774 in early NY. The push to an 80594 session high cleared Monday's 80445 prior high, despite firm US durables data backing the hawkish-Fed tone. Price has since slipped back under 80445 after London close, with RSI(14) cooled to a neutral ~55.
Support: 80,110.00, 79,774.00, 79,405.00
Resistance: 80,445.00, 80,594.00
What it said to watch
Close back above the 80445 prior high, then the 80594 session high, resumes the higher-high chain
Loss of the 80110 swing low exposes the 80000 fib 50% and the rising higher-low trendline
Break of 79774 voids the higher-low sequence and reopens the 79405 day low
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major risk; pre-FOMC positioning may thin follow-through
16:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low, stalling at highs · RSI 61 · price 80,464.39
Higher lows from 79,405; broke the prior high at 80,445.
BTC rallied off the 79,405 London low and built higher lows through the NY session. It cleared yesterday's 80,445 prior high to print an 80,594 session high, where two upper wicks show supply capping the push. RSI(14) sits near 61 and is not stretched, so firm US data and a firmer USD have not derailed the bounce so far.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 80,440 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
A pullback holding the 80,140 fib 38.2 of the rally keeps the higher-low chain intact
Loss of the 79,774 swing low breaks the higher-low line and the uptrend read
A clean close above the 80,594 session high opens the 81,000 round number
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (~26h out): hawkish guidance could materially shift this read
15:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, at fresh 24h high · RSI 71 · price 80,545.30
HH/HL chain off the 79405 London low; Asian high and prior high cleared.
London broke the Asian high near 80270 after a 79405 low. NY held the post-open dip at the 79774 ny low as a higher low along the rising trendline, then cleared Monday's 80445 prior high to a 80594 session high despite firm US data and a bid USD. RSI(14) near 71 is hot but not stretched as price presses the session high late in the London-NY overlap.
Support: 80,445.00, 80,270.00, 79,774.00
Resistance: 80,594.00, 81,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 80445 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Rejection at the 80594 session high vs extension toward the 81000 round number
Loss of the 80270 asian high and the rising trendline breaks the HL chain; 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg sits near 80140
Break of the 79774 ny low negates the intraday uptrend read
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk that could materially shift this read
15:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London low · RSI 65 · price 80,361.50
HH/HL chain from 79405; NY broke above the Asian range high.
BTC cleared the Asian high at 80270 ahead of the NY open. Late in the London-NY overlap it printed a session high at 80594, but the long upper wick shows rejection short of the prior high at 80673. Higher lows from the London low at 79405 through the NY swing low at 79774 define rising support, and the firm US data was absorbed without breaking that chain. RSI(14) is near 65, firm but not stretched.
Support: 80,270.00, 79,774.00, 79,405.00
Resistance: 80,594.00, 80,673.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 80270 would turn the NY breakout into a false break
Loss of the ny swing low at 79774 breaks rising support and the higher-low chain
50% retrace of the london-low rally sits near 80000, a round number
Close above the prior high at 80673 clears the 24h window top
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC; digest tilts the risk hawkish for BTC
15:18 UTC
Intraday uptrend from the London low, pressing the highs · RSI 62 · price 80,192.69
Higher lows since the 79,405 low; session high at 80,381 retested.
London broke below the Asian range low and printed the 79,405 london low, then reversed. Early NY, after firm US durables, price cleared the Asian high to an 80,381 session high. The pullback held the 79,774 swing low near the 61.8% retrace, and price is back testing 80,381 with RSI(14) near 62.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,381 session high opens the path to the 80,724 prior high
A second rejection at 80,381 would leave a double top at the session high
Loss of the 80,000 round number, then the 79,774 swing low, breaks the higher-lows trendline
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) is the next major risk; a hawkish tone could materially shift this read
15:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low · RSI 68 · price 80,365.50
Higher lows at 79405/79774, pressing session high.
BTC set a London low at 79405 and rallied through the Asian high at 80271 to a session high at 80381. The first-hour NY dip on firm US data (CB Confidence 91.7) held the NY low at 79774, the 61.8% of the London rally fib, extending the higher-lows sequence. Price is back testing the session high with RSI(14) near 68, short of an overbought extreme.
Support: 80,271.00, 79,774.00, 79,405.00
Resistance: 80,381.00, 80,728.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80381 session high opens the path to the prior high at 80728
Slip back below the 80271 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Break of the 79774 ny low invalidates the higher-lows read
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; pre-Fed tape may keep ranges contained
London low sweep, rally, NY pullback held 61.8% fib.
London swept below the Asian low to the 79,405 london low, then rallied through the 80,270 Asian high to an 80,381 session high. The NY open pullback found demand at the 79,774 NY low, right at the 61.8% fib of that leg, and price now sits back below the Asian high after a lower high at 80,250. BTC is trading as a liquidity proxy with USD firm into Wednesday's FOMC.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,270 Asian high reopens the 80,381 session high and the 80,728 prior high
Failure to hold the 80,000 round number and the 79,774 NY low breaks the higher-low sequence from the london low
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major catalyst; pre-FOMC positioning can widen intraday ranges
Higher low at 79774 after London sweep of Asian low; testing back below Asian high.
London swept the Asian low (79477) to a london low of 79405, then reversed through the Asian high at 80271 to a session high of 80381 around the US data window. The NY open pullback held the NY low at 79774, near the 61.8% fib retrace, and price is back near 80200, just under the Asian high, with BTC trading as a liquidity proxy into Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 80,000.00, 79,774.00, 79,405.00
Resistance: 80,271.00, 80,381.00, 80,728.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80381 session high reopens the break of the Asian high, with the prior high at 80728 next overhead
Loss of the 80000 round number and the 79774 NY low breaks the higher-low sequence from the london low
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30 UTC); guidance tone could materially shift this read
14:18 UTC
Intraday recovery from London low, stalling below session high · RSI 56 · price 80,019.88
Higher low at 79,774 after 80,381 rejection; choppy 79,774–80,240 band.
London swept below the Asian low to 79,405 (london low), then price rallied around the US durables beat (1.8% vs 0.6%) to an 80,381 session high, briefly clearing the 80,270 Asian high before rejection. NY has since chopped between the 79,774 swing low and 80,240, with the 14:00 UTC dip holding near the 61.8% retracement; RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 80,270 asian high and the 80,381 session high would end the post-rejection chop
Failure to hold the 79,774 swing low breaks the rising support line and reopens the 79,405 london low
BTC is trading as a liquidity proxy into Wed's FOMC (18:00 UTC); yields and USD shifts could materially change this read
Asian range 79536–80271 broken on both sides; lower highs off 80381.
London swept below the Asian range to a 79405 session low before reversing. The spike to the 80381 data high around the US releases faded back inside the range during the first hour of NY, with USD holding two-week highs on the durable goods beat. Price sits near 79864, just under the 50% retrace of the 79405–80381 leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 50 and ATR(14) about $185.
Support: 79,841.07, 79,730.20
Resistance: 80,381.48, 80,728.10
What it said to watch
Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC land on the current bar and could extend or reverse the fade.
An M15 close below the 79841 pullback low and the 61.8% retrace near 79778 exposes the 79730 pre-data low.
Recapture of the 80047 prior high reopens the 80381 data high, with the 80728 prior-day hi above.
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC remains the larger event risk for this range structure.
Higher lows from 79,405, pullback holding near 80,000 and the 38.2% fib.
London swept below the Asian low to a 79,405 session low, then reversed. Price pushed through the Asian high to an 80,381 session high as firm US data landed. The NY open bar swung 79,841–80,240 and price is back above the 80,000 round number, with higher lows intact along rising support.
What it said to watch
Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could stretch the NY open range
M15 close below the 79,841 NY open low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain; the 61.8% fib near 79,778 is the next reference
Close above the 80,381 session high opens the prior high at 80,728
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk for this structure
13:33 UTC
Intraday recovery, fading from spike high · RSI 57 · price 79,943.96
Higher lows since the London low, spike above Asian high rejected.
London swept below the Asian low to a 79,405 day low, then the US durables beat around 12:30 UTC drove price through the Asian high to an 80,381 spike high. That push was rejected, and early NY has slipped back under the 80,000 psych into the 38.2–50% fib of the move. Rising lows still sit above the 79,800 spike base, and RSI(14) has cooled to the high-50s.
What it said to watch
Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC, within the next two bars, could break the current fade
M15 close below the 79,800 spike base and the rising lows line unwinds the data move toward the day low at 79,405
Reclaiming the 80,000 psych and closing above the 80,381 spike high would void the false break and bring the prior high at 80,728 into view
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant event risk for this read
13:18 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling under the Asian high · RSI 61 · price 80,151.73
Higher low at 79730 after the London low; NY push above the Asian high failed to hold.
London swept under the Asian range to a London low at 79405, then reversed into a higher low at 79730. The first NY push cleared the asian high at 80270 to an ny high of 80381, but no M15 close held above it and price is back near 80150, about a 23.6% pullback of the rally. The digest flags no BTC-specific driver; the mixed durables print added little.
Support: 80,053.84, 79,730.20
Resistance: 80,381.48, 80,728.10
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 80270 asian high would turn the failed break into a breakout toward the 80381 ny high and the 80728 prior high
Loss of the 80054 pullback low exposes the 80009 38.2% fib, then the 79730 higher low
A break below the 79730 higher low and the rising trendline would void the recovery structure and reopen the 79405 London low
US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could move this read in the next few bars; FOMC on Wed stays the larger event risk
13:06 UTC
Short-term uptrend, stalling at Asian high · RSI 68 · price 80,246.63
Higher highs and higher lows off the 79405 London low; capped near 80270–80381.
Early NY lifted BTC from the 79730 higher low through 80000 to an 80381 session high around the mixed US durable goods print. The move cleared the asian high at 80270, then slipped back beneath it, with RSI(14) near 68 and the higher lows trendline intact off the 79405 London low.
Support: 79,730.20
Resistance: 80,381.48, 80,728.10
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 80270 asian high reopens the 80381 session high and the 80728 prior high
Loss of the 80047 london high exposes the rally fib 61.8% near 79780 and the 79730 higher low
A break of the higher lows trendline and the 79405 session low would undo the intraday HH/HL structure
Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could stretch the session range; FOMC on Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk
12:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 72 · price 80,239.63
London swept the Asian low, reversed, and broke the London high. Price is now testing the Asian high..
London ran below the Asian low to a session low of 79,405, then reversed. A higher low printed at 79,730 before price cleared the London high at 80,048 around the 12:30 UTC Durable Goods slot. Early NY is now pressing the Asian high at 80,270 with RSI(14) near 72, short-term hot but not stretched, against a firm-USD backdrop ahead of FOMC.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,270 asian high opens the prior high at 80,445, then the prior day hi at 80,728
Slip back below the 80,048 london high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 79,730 higher low, or the rising support line, puts the 79,405 session low back in play
Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, and FOMC tomorrow 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via USD and yields
12:32 UTC
Intraday rebound off London low, testing upper half of Asian range · RSI 63 · price 80,088.80
False break below Asian low, then higher low and break of London high.
London undercut the Asian low at 79536 to a session low of 79405, then reversed. A higher low at 79730 and a 12:15 UTC push through the London high at 80048 have price near 80090, with the push high at 80147 and the Asian high at 80270 above. RSI(14) is ~63, not stretched.
Support: 80,047.85, 79,730.20
Resistance: 80,146.74, 80,445.41
What it said to watch
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) into the NY open could materially shift this read
A close back below the London high at 80048 puts price back inside the morning range
Failure to hold the 79730 higher low negates the rebound structure and reopens the session low at 79405
A close above the 80147 push high and the 80270 Asian high opens the path to the 80445 prior high from yesterday's NY session
Wednesday FOMC keeps two-way event risk elevated across sessions
False break below Asian range low, reversal now consolidating.
London broke below the 79536 Asian low to a 79405 session low at 10:00 UTC, then reversed sharply to the 80048 London high. Price is consolidating in a tight 79730–79877 band above the 50% retrace of that reversal leg, RSI(14) neutral near 55. Firm USD into Wednesday's FOMC keeps BTC in a holding pattern.
Support: 79,730.20, 79,536.41
Resistance: 80,047.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80048 london high opens the path to the 80270 asian high
Failure to hold the 50% retrace at 79730 puts the 79536 asian low and 79405 session low back in play
Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could jolt the NY open
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:04 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since yesterday's NY peak · RSI 54 · price 79,781.14
London swept below the Asian low, reclaimed it; price holding mid-range under the bounce high.
London swept under the Asian low to a session low of 79405 at 10:00 UTC, then reclaimed to the bounce high at 80048. Price now sits about 41% back into that bounce fib near 79780, on the EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 54. BTC is tracking risk mood into Wednesday's Fed, and highs have stepped lower from yesterday's 80728 NY peak and the 80271 asian high.
Support: 79,536.41
Resistance: 80,047.85, 80,270.60
What it said to watch
A close back below the asian low at 79536 negates the sweep reclaim and exposes the session low at 79405
A break above the bounce high at 80048 puts the asian high at 80271 back in play and challenges the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 61.8% bounce fib near 79651 would mark the 10:00 UTC reclaim as fading
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, in the first hours of NY, could materially shift this read; the Fed decision lands Wed 18:00 UTC
11:48 UTC
Range, lower highs since yesterday's NY high · RSI 53 · price 79,777.14
London swept the Asian low and reversed; price retracing the rebound leg.
London took out the Asian low at 79474 to a london low at 79405, just above yesterday's ny low at 79365, then reversed to a london high at 80048. Price has eased back to 79777, about 42% of that leg on the london leg fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and price only marginally above EMA50. BTC is tracking broad risk mood against a firm USD into Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 79,474.48, 79,364.60
Resistance: 80,047.85
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC land into the NY open and could shift this read
M15 close back below the asian low at 79474 negates the false break and puts the london low and ny low back in play
M15 close above the london high at 80048 opens the path to the asian high at 80270
Hold of the 50–61.8% zone of the london leg fib (79727–79650) keeps the rebound structure intact
Lower highs since 80270; London swept Asian low then reclaimed.
London swept the Asian low at 79474 down to a sweep low of 79405, then rebounded about $640 into the London high at 80048. That high sits just under the descending trendline off the Asian highs. The pullback low at 79740 held near the 50% fib of the bounce, RSI(14) is neutral at 54, and price is tracking USD and risk mood into US data.
Support: 79,740.00, 79,474.00, 79,405.00
Resistance: 80,048.00, 80,270.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 80048 breaks the descending trendline and reopens the asian high at 80270
Failure to hold the pullback low at 79740 exposes the asian low at 79474 and the sweep low at 79405
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read; FOMC on Wed at 18:00 UTC is the larger risk
London sweep below Asian low, reclaimed; rebound capped at 80048.
London swept below the 79474 asian low to a 79405 sweep low at 10:00 UTC, then broke the overnight lower-high trendline. The bounce stalled at the 80048 london high, and price has since slipped back to the 38.2% fib near 79800, just under EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 52 an hour before NY.
Support: 79,540.00, 79,474.00, 79,405.00
Resistance: 80,048.00, 80,270.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80048 london high reopens the 80270 asian high
Failure to hold the 79540 range base (Asia/London lows) puts the 79474 asian low and 79405 sweep low back in play
A drop back under the 61.8% fib near 79650 would mark the London rebound as a false break
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision
False break below Asian low reversed; lower-high chain broken.
London pushed through the 79,536 Asian low to a 79,405 session low, then reversed hard through the 79,900 London-open high. That move broke the lower-high chain from yesterday's NY peak. Price is holding near the 61.8% fib of the 80,270–79,405 drop as BTC tracks risk mood into the Fed, with RSI(14) near 60.
What it said to watch
Hold above the 79,810 breakout keeps the false-break read intact; slipping back under the 79,536 Asian low reopens the 79,405 session low
Acceptance above the 80,035 session high opens the 80,270 Asian high, with the 80,445 prior swing above
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read via USD and risk mood
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant event risk for the week
Lower highs from 80270 Asian high; false break below Asian low reversed.
London pushed below the 79475 Asian low to a 79405 session low at 10:00 UTC, was rejected there and recovered about 500 USD in three bars. The rebound cleared the descending trendline off the 80270 Asian high. Price now sits at 79904 in the 50–61.8% fib zone, just under the 79944 lower high, with RSI(14) near 60 and BTC tracking broad risk against a firm USD into the Fed.
Support: 79,475.00, 79,405.00
Resistance: 79,944.00, 80,000.00, 80,270.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 79944 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 80000 round number, then the 80270 Asian high
Slip back below 79810 and under the trendline turns the rebound into another lower high, with the 79475 Asian low back in play
Close below the 79405 session low confirms a fresh lower low and negates the false-break read
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC, early in NY hours, could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision
LH/LL chain from 80270; Asian low broken in London, now retested from below.
London broke the Asian low near 79536 and printed a session low at 79405. Price has bounced back to that old Asian floor, with the 79685 lower high and the descending trendline from the 80270 Asian high still capping. BTC is trading as a USD and risk proxy, with the dollar firm into today's US data and Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 79,364.60
Resistance: 79,685.24, 79,901.01
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79405 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 79365 prior low from yesterday's NY open
Reclaim of 79685 and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 79901 london high is the next cap
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD
Lower highs and lower lows since 80,270; Asian range low broken in London session.
Lower highs from 80,270 through Asia and into the London session capped every rally, including the 79,901 london high and the 79,685 lower high. The 10:00 UTC bar broke the asian low at 79,477 to a 79,405 session low. That leaves price just above yesterday's NY prior low at 79,365, with BTC tracking a firm USD into Wednesday's Fed and RSI(14) near 41, not stretched.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 79,477 asian low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 79,365 prior low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 79,685 lower high and the lower highs trendline breaks the descending structure
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read in NY session
Lower highs off the asian high into a flat 79475–79540 floor.
Mid-London, BTC is pinned to EMA20 near 79670. The London open dipped through the asian low to a london low at 79474 and reclaimed it. The bounce stalled at the london high of 79901, near the 50% fib of the asian high-to-london low leg, and the 09:30 dip held the asian low again. A descending trendline off the asian high keeps capping rallies; with no crypto catalyst, price is tracking the firm USD into Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 79,474.00, 79,365.00
Resistance: 79,901.00, 80,270.00
What it said to watch
Close below the london low at 79474 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 24h low at 79365
Close above the descending trendline and the london high at 79901 breaks the lower-high chain; the asian high at 80270 is next
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift USD tone and this read
Lower highs from 80270 asia high; London swept the Asian low, bounce faded.
Lower highs since the 80270 Asia high. Early London swept the Asian low to a 79474 london low, and the bounce stalled at the 79901 london high near the 50% fib retrace. Price is back pressing 79540–79590 with RSI(14) near 45, while BTC tracks a firm USD into the Fed.
Support: 79,474.48
Resistance: 79,901.01
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79474 london low extends the lower-low chain toward yesterday's 79364 ny low
Reclaim of the 79901 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and opens the 80270 asia high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read around the NY open
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high, coiling above the London session low.
Lower highs from the 80,270 Asian high carried BTC to a London session low at 79,474. The rebound stalled at the 79,901 swing high, just past the 50% fib of that drop, and price is coiling under the falling trendline with RSI(14) near 42. With no crypto-specific catalyst, BTC is tracking a firmer USD into Wednesday's Fed decision.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 79,901 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 79,474 session low exposes the 79,365 prior low from Monday's NY drop
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC land in the NY session and could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 80271 Asian high, rotating 79602–79901 after a sweep low.
Lower highs since the 80271 Asian high keep the intraday downtrend intact. The push under the Asian range low to a 79474 sweep low ahead of London open drew a bounce to a 79901 lower high, and price is now rotating near the 38.2% retrace with RSI(14) neutral near 49. With no crypto-specific catalyst, BTC is tracking firm USD into today's US data and Wednesday's Fed, and early London is holding above the 79602 swing low.
Support: 79,602.34, 79,474.48
Resistance: 79,901.01, 80,270.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 79901 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 79602 swing low reopens the 79474 sweep low
Recovery through the 80271 asian high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift USD and this read
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger risk event for the range
Lower highs from the 80270 Asian high; higher low at 79602 after the London-open sweep.
London open swept below the Asian range low (79536) to a 79474 London low, then demand lifted price to a 79901 London high. Since then a higher low has formed at 79602, under a descending trendline from the 80270 Asian high. Price sits near 79760 with RSI(14) at 48, tracking a firm USD into Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 79,602.34, 79,474.48, 79,364.60
Resistance: 79,901.01
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 79901 London high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence from the 80270 Asian high
Failure to hold the 79602 higher low reopens the 79474 London low and Monday's 79365 NY low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read ahead of the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC
Lower-high chain from the Asian high; London false break below the Asian low.
BTC has printed lower highs since the 80270 Asian high. Early London dipped below the 79536 Asian low to a 79474 session low, then reclaimed it. The rebound was rejected at 79901, a fresh lower high at the 50% fib and the descending trendline, with RSI(14) flat near 48 as the firm USD weighs ahead of Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 79,536.41, 79,474.48, 79,364.60
Resistance: 79,901.01, 79,943.96
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 79944 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 79474 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 79365 prior ny low
Holding back above the 79536 Asian low keeps the London false break in play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC remains the dominant event risk for USD and risk-proxy flows
Lower highs from 80270 Asia high; lower lows to 79474 session low at London open.
Asia session printed a lower high under the 80270 asia high. Price then slid along a descending trendline into a London-open session low at 79474, and is rotating back near 79700 with RSI(14) neutral around 49. The latest lower high at 79901 capped the rebound. BTC is tracking the firmer USD into the Fed with no crypto-specific driver.
Support: 79,474.48
Resistance: 79,901.01
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 79901 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 79474 session low exposes the 79364 prior low from yesterday's NY selloff
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could jolt the NY session range
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant event risk for this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; London open mid-range.
The Asian session sold off from the 80,270 asian high to a 79,474 asian low in a lower-high, lower-low chain. The pre-London bounce stalled at 79,901, a fresh lower high just past the 50% retracement and at the descending trendline, and London has opened mid-range near 79,750. BTC is tracking broad risk mood and a firm USD into Wednesday's Fed.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 79,901 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the Asian lower-high sequence, with the 80,270 asian high next
Failure to hold the 79,474 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward yesterday's 79,365 ny low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift the risk-proxy read during NY hours
08:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 55 · price 79,758.16
Lower highs from 80270 Asian high, lows stepping down to 79474.
Asia session carved lower highs off the 80270 Asian high, with the session low printed at 79474 into London open. The London open bounce stalled at 79901, just under the 79944 lower high and the falling trendline. Price sits near the 38.2% retrace of the Asian drop, with no BTC-specific driver as it tracks USD and risk mood into the Fed.
Support: 79,474.48
Resistance: 79,943.96
What it said to watch
M15 close above 79944 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the falling trendline
Failure to hold the 79474 session low extends lower lows toward the 79364 prior low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift the intraday read
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant event risk for USD-driven risk mood
Lower-high/lower-low chain off the Asian high, basing near session low.
BTC slid through the Asian session from the 80,270 high in a lower-high chain. Early London extended the move to a session low at 79,475, and the bounce stalled at a lower high near 79,680. Price is below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 43, tracking a firm USD into Wednesday's FOMC.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 79,475 session low exposes yesterday's NY-open prior low at 79,365
M15 close above the 79,944 swing high and the descending line breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 80,270 asian high would void the Asian decline
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read via USD
Lower highs from 80,728 NY high; Asian low swept at London open, marginal reclaim.
Lower highs since yesterday's 80,728 NY high, with the asian high at 80,271 and the 79,944 lower high capping. Price slipped under the asian low at 79,536 into London open, set a 79,474 session low, then reclaimed only marginally. RSI(14) near 43, with BTC tracking broad risk and a firmer USD into Wednesday's Fed.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 79,474 session low exposes the prior low at 79,365 from yesterday's NY open
Holding above the 79,536 asian low turns the London-open break into a false break
Close above the 79,944 lower high and the lower-high trendline breaks the descending sequence; the 50% retrace of the Asian decline sits near 79,870
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift risk tone mid-session
07:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 37 · price 79,491.46
Lower highs and lower lows from the 80,270 Asian high; price at the Asian low ahead of London open.
BTC has stepped lower through the Asia session from the 80,270 Asian high, printing lower highs and lower lows. Price is now pressing the 79,474 Asian low into London open with RSI(14) near 37, soft but not oversold, as a firmer USD weighs into Wednesday's Fed. The 79,365 NY open low from yesterday is the next reference below.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79,474 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 79,365 ny open low
Recovery through the 79,830 lower high and the 79,944 swing high breaks the lower highs trendline
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift USD and risk tone into the NY session
07:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 35 · price 79,529.42
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 80270 Asian high, session low just broken.
Asia faded from the 80270 Asian high in a lower-high sequence and pressed to a fresh session low at 79477 into London open, with RSI(14) near 35 and price below both EMAs. Firm USD into Wednesday's Fed is the backdrop; Monday NY's 79365 prior low sits just under the current session low.
Support: 79,477.47, 79,364.60
Resistance: 79,943.96, 80,000.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 79477 session low exposes the 79365 prior low
M15 close above the 79944 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 80000 round number would put the 80270 Asian high back in play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the main risk
Lower highs from 80728; price back at the Asian range floor.
Lower highs from Monday's 80728 NY high through the 80270 asian high to the 79944 swing high. That swing high was a rejection in the 50–61.8% zone of the asian fib, and price is now back at 79616, just above the 79536 asian low, under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 44. No crypto-specific driver; BTC is tracking a firm USD into Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 79,536.41
Resistance: 79,943.96
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79536 asian low confirms a lower low and exposes the 79364 prior low from Monday's NY session
Reclaim of the 79944 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 80270 asian high back in play
Lower-high trendline from 80728 caps rallies near 80000 while it holds
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read during NY hours
06:32 UTC
Downtrend through Asia, basing at the Asian low · RSI 46 · price 79,680.25
Lower highs from 80,270 into a flat floor near 79,540, mid-range.
Late Asia: BTC is in the lower half of the 79,536–80,270 Asian range after a chain of lower highs. The 05:45 UTC push to 79,944 stalled below the 61.8% fib of the Asian range and reversed, while the Asian low floor has held twice. Price is below both EMAs and is tracking broad risk and the USD ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision.
What it said to watch
A close below the 79,536 asian low exposes yesterday's 79,365 NY-open low (prior ny low)
A close above the 79,944 lower high and the Asia lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence, with the 80,270 asian high above
London open in about 1.5h is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could shift risk tone ahead of the Wednesday Fed decision
06:17 UTC
Lower highs since Monday high, bounce off Asian low · RSI 53 · price 79,819.10
Descending trendline capping; minor double bottom at 79,540.
Late in the Asia session, price faded from the 80,270 asian high into a double bottom at the 79,540 asian low. The bounce to a 79,944 swing high stalled under the descending trendline from the 80,728 monday high and just short of the 61.8% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 as BTC tracks a firm USD into Wednesday's Fed.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 79,944 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 80,270 asian high in play
Failure to hold the 79,536 asian low voids the double bottom and exposes the 79,365 ny low from Monday
London open at 08:00 UTC is likely to set the first test of the Asian range
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6%) could shift the USD and this read ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision
06:04 UTC
Lower highs since 80728, basing near 79536 · RSI 50 · price 79,869.04
Bounce off double bottom inside 79365–80728 prior-day range, capped by descending trendline.
Late Asia session: a double bottom at the 79536 Asian low has lifted price back above the 79840 neckline to the 50% retrace of the Asian leg. The descending trendline off the 80728 prior high meets the 80000 psych level just overhead. RSI(14) is flat at 50, and BTC is tracking broad risk mood into Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 79,840.00, 79,536.00, 79,365.00
Resistance: 80,000.00, 80,271.00, 80,728.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 80000 and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 80271 Asian high in view
Slip back below the 79840 neckline weakens the double bottom read
Failure to hold the 79536 Asian low confirms a lower low toward the 79365 prior low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift risk mood
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the main volatility risk for the 79365–80728 range
Lower highs from the 80,270 Asia high; equal lows near 79,536; testing 79,840 swing high.
Late Asia session: BTC slid from the 80,270 asia high through a chain of lower highs to equal lows at 79,536–79,540 (asia low). It is now bouncing into the 38.2% retracement of the Asia decline near 79,817 and the 79,840 swing high, still inside yesterday's 79,365 ny low to 80,728 high range, with a firm USD into FOMC week capping risk appetite.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 79,840 swing high confirms the double bottom and opens the 80,000 round number / 61.8% fib near 79,990
Failure to hold the 79,536 asia low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 79,365 ny low
Reclaim of the 80,270 asia high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
London open in ~2h may expand the Asian range
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's FOMC
Lower highs through Asia, flat lows at 79,536–79,540.
Late Asia session: BTC has slipped from the 80,270 asian high and is pinned between the 79,536 asian low, tested twice, and the 79,840 swing high, which sits near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia drop. Price is below EMA20/50 with RSI near 40. Macro tone is two-way and USD-led into the FOMC, with no BTC-specific driver.
What it said to watch
Break below the 79,536 asian low exposes the 79,365 24h low set at the NY open
Close above the 79,840 swing high (38.2% fib) breaks the Asia lower-high chain; 80,270 asian high next above
London open could expand the tight 79,536–79,840 range; ATR is about $148 per bar
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift USD and BTC ahead of Wednesday's FOMC
05:17 UTC
Downtrend through Asia, basing near lows · RSI 41 · price 79,722.20
Asian lower highs from 80270; twin lows at 79536–79545 holding.
Late Asia session. BTC has stepped lower from the 80270 asian high, but the 79536–79545 asian low held twice and price has lifted to 79722. Price is still below EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) near 41, as BTC trades as a macro risk proxy into Fed week with no crypto-specific driver.
Support: 79,536.41, 79,364.60
Resistance: 79,840.07
What it said to watch
Close above the 79840 lower high would complete the double bottom and bring the 50% fib near 79900 into play
Break of the 79536 asian low would resume the lower-high sequence toward the 79365 day low set at Monday's NY open
Approach to London open, US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's FOMC
05:06 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 32 · price 79,641.29
Lower-high chain from 80270, pressing the Asian low.
Late in the Asia session, BTC has stepped down from the 80270 Asian high in a lower-high sequence. The 79840 swing high capped the latest bounce, and price has twice probed the 79536 Asian low with RSI(14) near 32. A firm USD into FOMC week is keeping risk bids thin.
Support: 79,536.41
Resistance: 79,840.07
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 79840 swing high, near the 38.2% retrace, breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 79536 Asian low exposes Monday's 79364 prior low
London open may set the session range off the Asian low
Durable goods at 12:30 UTC could move USD and shift this read
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk
04:48 UTC
Intraday downtrend through Asia · RSI 39 · price 79,548.40
Lower highs from 80270 asia high, pressing session low inside 79365–80728 24h range.
Late Asia session has stepped down in lower highs from the 80,270 asia high and is pressing the 79,540 asia low. The 79,840 lower high stalled near the 38.2% fib, and RSI(14) at 39 is not stretched as a firm USD into Fed week caps risk appetite.
What it said to watch
M15 close below 79,540 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 79,365 ny low set at Monday's NY open
Recovery above the 79,840 lower high breaks the Asia sequence, with the 80,000 round number and 80,270 asia high above
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could shift the read around the London-NY transition
Lower highs/lower lows from 80728; fresh session low inside the 79365–80728 day range.
The Asia sell-off from the 80270 Asian high printed a fresh session low at 79540, extending the lower-highs sequence from Monday's 80728 NY peak. The 03:30 UTC bounce met rejection at the 79840 swing high, just above the 38.2% retrace, with price back below EMA20 and RSI(14) at 39 as BTC trades as a risk proxy into Fed week.
Support: 79,540.40, 79,364.60
Resistance: 79,840.07, 80,000.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 79540 session low exposes Monday's 79365 ny low
Recovery above the 79840 swing high and the 80000 round number would stall the lower-highs sequence
Close above the 80270 Asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read into the NY session
04:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 38 · price 79,685.24
Lower-high/lower-low sequence from the 80,270 Asian high, mid-range of Monday's 79,365–80,728 span.
Late Asia session has printed successive lower highs off the 80,270 Asian high, with a 03:15 UTC dip to the 79,540 Asian low taking out Monday's late-NY pivots. The bounce stalled at the 79,840 swing high near the 38.2% fib, and price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) ~38 as BTC tracks a firmer USD into Fed week.
What it said to watch
Break of the 79,540 Asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 79,365 NY low from Monday's session
Close above the 79,840 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and brings the 80,000 round number back into play
Recovery above the 80,270 Asian high would negate the intraday downtrend read
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and the FOMC statement (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift the USD-driven risk tone
04:04 UTC
Intraday lower highs, drifting lower in Asia · RSI 41 · price 79,733.19
Asia leg down inside the 24h 79365–80728 range.
Asia session rolled over from a double top at the 80270 asian high and printed a session low at 79540, below the overnight 79614 pivot. Price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41, and highs have stepped lower since the 80728 monday high. The digest flags no BTC-specific news; it is trading as a macro risk proxy into Fed week with USD firm.
Support: 79,540.40, 79,364.60
Resistance: 79,840.07, 80,728.10
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79540 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 79365 monday low
Reclaim of the 79840 swing high, near the 38.2% fib, eases the Asia downside read
A break above the 80270 asian high voids the double top and lower-highs trendline
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift USD and risk tone
Asian session lower highs from 80,267; fresh session low at 79,540 below Monday's late-NY dip.
Asian session has printed lower highs off the 80,267 asian high and a session low at 79,540, undercutting Monday's late-NY dip at 79,614. The rebound is stalling at the 38.2% retrace near 79,820, below both EMAs, and the move is still contained within the 79,365 24h low to 80,728 range. No BTC-specific catalyst; the tape is drifting with USD firmness into Fed week.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 79,540 session low exposes the 79,365 24h low and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 80,000 round number (61.8% retrace confluence) negates the Asian down-leg read
M15 close above the 80,267 asian high returns price to mid-range of the 24h structure
Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
03:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 39 · price 79,713.21
Lower highs and lower lows inside yesterday's 79365–80728 range.
Early Asia session has extended the lower-highs sequence from yesterday's 80728 NY peak. Price swept the prior low at 79614 to a session low of 79540 before a shallow bounce. RSI(14) sits near 39 with price below both EMAs, and the firm pre-FOMC dollar is keeping BTC heavy inside yesterday's range.
Support: 79,614.00, 79,540.00, 79,365.00
Resistance: 80,000.00, 80,270.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 79540 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 79365 NY low
Holding back above the 79614 prior low keeps the sweep-and-bounce read intact
Reclaiming the 80000 round number and the lower-highs trendline would break the descending structure
Asian high at 80270 caps the session range
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could shift the read during NY hours
Lower highs 80728/80445/80270; testing session low under prior lows.
Late in the Asia session, BTC has given back the twice-rejected 80270 Asian high and slid to a fresh session low near 79590, through the 79614–79695 prior lows. The descending trendline from the 80728 swing high caps price; RSI(14) is near 32, soft but not oversold, as BTC trades with a firm USD into Fed week.
Support: 79,590.35, 79,364.60, 79,284.69
Resistance: 79,695.23, 80,728.10
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 79590 session low exposes the 79365 NY low, then the 79285 window low
Reclaim of the 79695 prior lows would mark this as a false break
Close above the descending trendline and 80270 Asian high invalidates the lower-high sequence
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:05 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since NY high · RSI 37 · price 79,706.22
Compressing range 79614–80270 under a falling trendline.
Since Monday's NY high at 80728, rallies have formed lower highs under a falling trendline, last capped at the 80270 Asian high. Early in the Asia session, price is back below the 80000 psych level and pressing the 79656 Asian low with RSI(14) near 37, while USD firms into Fed week. The 79614 swing low is the floor of the range.
Support: 79,656.28, 79,614.32, 79,364.60
Resistance: 80,000.00, 80,728.10
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79614 swing low breaks the range floor and exposes the 79365 NY low
Reclaim of 80000 psych and a close above the 80270 Asian high would end the lower-high sequence off the 80728 NY high
Price near the falling trendline is the area to watch for rejection or break on any bounce
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read as USD drives BTC into Wednesday's Fed decision
02:47 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 44 · price 79,851.06
Range 79,600–80,300 with descending highs.
BTC has rotated inside a 79,600–80,300 range since late NY. The Asian high at 80,270 was rejected twice, and price has retraced about 62% of the overnight leg from the 79,614 swing low, sitting just above the Asian low with RSI(14) neutral near 44. Highs keep stepping lower from the 80,728 NY peak through the 80,440 lower high, keeping price capped under the 80,000 round number as markets position for Fed week.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 79,788 Asian low exposes the 79,614 swing low; a break there puts the 79,365 NY low in play
Reclaiming the 80,000 round number and closing above the 80,270 Asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence; 80,440 lower high next
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC today could extend the range in either direction ahead of Wednesday's FOMC
02:33 UTC
Sideways, fading through Asia · RSI 50 · price 79,864.05
Lower highs inside 79614–80270 range.
Asia has faded from the 80270 session high to 79864, sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the late-NY 79614–80270 bounce with lower highs printing since 01:30 UTC. Price is below the 80000 round number and testing the 79841 session low, with BTC trading as a risk proxy while USD firms into Fed week.
Support: 79,841.00, 79,614.00, 79,364.00
Resistance: 80,000.00, 80,270.00, 80,728.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79841 session low breaks the 61.8% hold and exposes the 79614 swing low
Recovery through the 80000 round number and the 80270 session high would negate the Asian lower-high sequence
A break of the 79364 ny low or the 80728 day high ends the 24h range read
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
24h range 79,365–80,728 tightening; Asia double rejection at 80,270.
Early Asia session: two rejections at the 80,270 session high have pulled price back to the 50% retrace of the 79,614–80,271 bounce. RSI(14) sits near 49. The 24h range is compressing, with lower highs off the 80,728 24h high and lows holding above the 79,365 NY-open 24h low and the 79,614 swing low, as BTC trades as a risk proxy into Fed week.
What it said to watch
Break of the 79,892 session low exposes the 79,614 swing low
Close above the 80,270 session high breaks the lower-high trendline, with the 80,445 swing high next
Loss of the 79,365 24h low would mark a range break lower
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and the Fed decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asia lifted off the 79,614 Asian low to an 80,270 Asian high. Three rejections near that high produced lower highs, and price is back at the 80,000 round number. It sits just under EMA20/50, mid-range of Monday's 79,285–80,728 band, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and Fed-week caution keeping flows two-way.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the rising Asian support and the 79,920 pullback low exposes the 79,614 Asian low
M15 close above the 80,270 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 80,728 day high
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could reset the intraday range via USD and yields
01:47 UTC
Short-term rebound inside a broader intraday range · RSI 61 · price 80,170.71
Higher low at 79916 after the 79614 swing low; capped at the 80270 Asian high.
Asia session rebound off the 79614 swing low printed a higher low at 79916, near the 50–61.8% retracement of the Asia rebound, but rejection at the 80270 Asian high came twice. Price sits mid-range inside Monday's 79365 to 80728 NY high span, RSI(14) near 61, with no BTC-specific driver and tone tied to USD into Fed week.
Support: 79,916.00, 79,614.32
Resistance: 80,485.36, 80,728.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80270 Asian high opens the path to the 80485 London high
Failure to hold the 79916 higher low breaks the rebound structure and exposes the 79614 swing low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6%) could shift the read; a beat feeds the hawkish-Fed narrative
01:33 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 57 · price 80,106.78
Compressing range 79614–80445, higher low in Asia.
Early Asia session is building a 79916–80270 range above yesterday's late swing low at 79614. The asian high was rejected at 01:15 UTC and the dip held near the 50% fib of the overnight leg. Since the 80728 ny high, the series of lower highs (80445, 80317, 80270) is squeezing price into a narrowing band as BTC trades as a macro risk proxy with USD firmer into Fed week.
Support: 79,916.00, 79,614.00, 79,365.00
Resistance: 80,270.00, 80,445.00, 80,728.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 80270 and the lower-high trendline breaks the compression; 80445 lower high is the next cap
Failure to hold the asian low at 79916 reopens the 79614 swing low, then the 79365 ny open low
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:18 UTC
Two-way intraday, Asia rebound · RSI 60 · price 80,197.68
Higher lows off 79614 inside a 79285–80728 day range.
Asia session lifted BTC off the 79614 swing low into an 80025–80270 Asian range. That retraces roughly half the NY-hours drop from the 80728 day high. Price is capped just under the 61.8% fib near 80300, with RSI(14) at 60 and BTC trading as a risk proxy into Fed week.
Support: 80,024.87, 79,614.32
Resistance: 80,445.41, 80,728.10
What it said to watch
Close above the 80270 asian high and the 61.8% fib near 80300 opens the 80445 lower high
Break below the 80025 asian low puts the 79614 swing low back in focus
Loss of 79614 exposes the 79364 ny low and the day-range floor
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC statement could materially shift this read
Lower-high line broken; higher high at 80,270 inside prior-day range.
The Asia session rebound from the 79,614 swing low broke the lower-high line from the NY session. Price cleared 80,000 psych and printed a session high at 80,270 before stalling, holding just above both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 56. The prior day spanned 79,284–80,728, and the NY session faded from the day high and the 80,445 lower high, with macro flow quiet ahead of Fed week.
What it said to watch
A break above the 80,270 session high opens the 80,445 lower high; rejection there keeps price inside the prior-day range
A close back below 80,000 psych puts the rebound fib 50–61.8% zone at 79,940–79,865 in play
Loss of the 79,614 swing low reopens the 79,284 day low
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could shift the read via USD and yields; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the main event risk
00:47 UTC
Rebounding within a 79300–80730 day range · RSI 63 · price 80,177.70
Asia rebound from 79614 swing low, at 50% retrace of NY drop.
Early Asia session rebound from the 79614 swing low has retraced half of the NY-session drop from the 80728 24h high. The asia high at 80271 is capping for now, with price above both EMAs and RSI(14) near 63. BTC is trading as a macro risk proxy into Fed week with no crypto-specific driver.
Support: 80,040.00, 79,614.00, 79,285.00
Resistance: 80,271.00, 80,445.00, 80,728.00
What it said to watch
Close above 80303 (61.8% fib) and the 80445 lower high would break the post-NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the fib 38.2 at 80040 reopens the 79614 swing low
Loss of 79614 brings the 24h low at 79285 into play
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC statement could materially shift this read
Descending line from the 80,445 swing high broken; price testing range top.
Early Asia session is pressing the 80,207 range top after a rebound from the 79,614 swing low broke the descending line off the 80,445 swing high. Price sits near the 50% fib of the NY fade from the 80,728 session high, with BTC trading as a macro risk proxy into Fed week.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,207 range top opens the path to the 80,445 swing high
Slip back below the fib 38.2 at 80,040 returns focus to the 79,700 double low and the 79,614 swing low
Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:18 UTC
Two-way range, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 57 · price 80,090.80
79285–80728 day range; early Asia rebound off 79614 swing low stalling near 50% fib.
Monday's range runs 79285 (Asia low) to 80728 (day high, NY session). Late NY printed lower highs into a 79614 swing low as USD short-covering firmed the dollar before the FOMC. The early-Asia bounce reached an 80208 session high, just above the 50% fib of the 80728–79614 drop, then stalled with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 79,614.32, 79,364.60, 79,284.69
Resistance: 80,207.67, 80,445.41, 80,728.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80208 session high exposes the 61.8% fib near 80303 and the 80445 NY swing high
Loss of the 79614 swing low reopens the 79365 NY low and 79285 Asia low
Clearing the 80728 day high breaks the Monday range
Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:05 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 58 · price 80,028.87
79,285–80,728 day range; lower-high sequence from 80,728, late-NY low at 79,614 bought back.
Monday held a 79,285–80,728 range. A lower-high sequence formed from the NY-session day high at 80,728 as USD firmed into Fed week. Price rebounded from the late low at 79,614 and is now pressing just above the falling lower-high line, sitting at the 38.2% fib near 80,040 into the Tuesday Asia session, with RSI(14) ~58.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,087 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 80,445 swing high, then the 80,728 day high
Rejection at the 38.2% fib or the 80,087 lower high puts the 79,695 swing lows and 79,614 late low back in play
Loss of 79,614 exposes the 79,285 day low
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read