BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:48 UTC
Post-FOMC rebound, now flat · RSI 56 · price 81,246.53
81,050–81,370 range under rejected 81,703 high.
The 18:00 UTC Fed hold and a sell-the-fact USD dip lifted BTC from the 80,298 day low to an 81,703 fomc high. That high was rejected just under the London high at 81,717. Price has since compressed between an 81,050 range floor and an 81,370 range top into late NY, holding above the 38.2% of the post-FOMC rally fib with RSI(14) near 56.
What it said to watch
Close above the 81,366 range top reopens the 81,703 fomc high and the 81,717 London high
Loss of the 81,050 range floor exposes the 80,907 swing low, inside the 50–61.8% zone of the post-FOMC rally fib
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
Tight range 81,050–81,370 under lower highs after rejection at 81,703.
The in-line Fed hold and sell-the-fact USD dip lifted BTC from the 80,298 pre-Fed low to 81,703 during NY hours, where it was rejected just under the London-open day high at 81,717. Since then price has compressed into a 81,050–81,370 range near the 38.2% retrace, with lower highs capping. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR(14) is about $200.
What it said to watch
A close below the 81,050 range low exposes the 80,907 swing low in the 50–61.8% fib zone.
A close above the 81,370 range high, breaking the lower-highs line, reopens the 81,703–81,717 day high.
Core PCE and GDP on Thu at 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields.
23:18 UTC
Post-FOMC recovery, now compressing · RSI 49 · price 81,247.52
Range 81052–81366 below a double top at 81703–81717.
The in-line Fed hold at 18:00 UTC and the USD softening into Powell's presser lifted BTC off the 80299 session low. The rally stalled with a rejection at 81703, a double top against the 81717 London high, and late NY has since compressed between the 81052 range low and 81366 range high, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 81,052.00, 80,906.00
Resistance: 81,366.00, 81,703.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81366 range high reopens the 81703 double top
Failure to hold the 81052 range low exposes the 80906 swing low and the 50% fib near 81000
Asia session open could set the next range from this compression
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Higher low at 80,907, capped below 81,366 since the 20:00 UTC rejection.
The 18:00 UTC Fed hold and the dollar's sell-the-fact drove a run from the 80,299 session low to 81,703, rejected just under the London-open day high at 81,717. Since then price has compressed between the 81,052 range floor and the 81,366 range top into the late-NY handover, holding between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the post-Fed leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and price sits just under EMA20.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,052 range floor exposes the 80,907 swing low and the 61.8% retrace near 80,835
M15 close above the 81,366 range top reopens the 81,703–81,717 day high
Break of the rising support from the 80,299 low would negate the post-Fed higher-low sequence
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~13.5h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
22:48 UTC
Post-FOMC rebound, now compressing · RSI 55 · price 81,248.52
Tight range 81,050–81,366 under lower highs after rejection at day high.
The FOMC rally ran from the 80,299 day low back to the London-open high, leaving a double top at 81,703/81,717 with a sharp rejection during Powell's presser as the dollar softened. Price has since compressed into a 81,050–81,366 range under lower highs, holding above the 50% fib of the rally, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 late in the NY session.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,366 range high breaks the lower highs and puts the 81,703 double top back in play
Failure to hold the 81,053 range low exposes the 80,907 swing low and the 61.8% fib near 80,835
Loss of the 80,299 day low would turn the double top into a completed reversal structure
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu (~14h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
22:33 UTC
Post-Fed bounce, stalling below day high · RSI 54 · price 81,194.58
Consolidation 81050–81370 after rejection at 81700 day high.
The 18:00 UTC Fed hold and a softer USD after the presser lifted price from the 80300 day low to 81703. That high was rejected just under the London-session day high at 81717. Price retraced about 56% to the 80907 post-fed low and is now consolidating between the 81050 range low and the 81370 range high late in NY hours, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 80,907.00
Resistance: 81,710.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81050 range low exposes the 80907 post-fed low and the 61.8% fib near 80835
M15 close above the 81370 range high puts the 81700 day high, rejected twice, back in focus
Core PCE / GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
22:18 UTC
Post-FOMC bounce, stalling below day high · RSI 55 · price 81,177.60
Higher low at 80907 after Fed, compressing 81054–81366 under 81703 rejection.
The Fed hold at 4% and Warsh's 'tightening is working' line softened USD and lifted BTC from 80300 to 81703, a rejection just shy of the London-morning day high at 81717. Price has since compressed between the 81054 swing low and the 81366 swing high into the late NY/Asia handover. It sits on the 38.2% fib and above the Asian range high at 81123.
Support: 81,123.00, 81,054.00, 80,907.00
Resistance: 81,366.00, 81,710.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below 81054 swing low exposes the 80907 higher low and the 50% fib near 81000
Break of the 80907 higher low negates the post-Fed higher-low sequence
Close above the 81366 swing high reopens the 81703–81717 day high
Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
22:06 UTC
Post-Fed rebound, stalling below day high · RSI 55 · price 81,255.52
Higher low at 80907, lower high at 81366, coiling.
The post-Fed rally from the 80,299 low stalled at 81,703 as USD softened on Warsh's presser, a rejection just under the London day high at 81,717. The pullback held the post-fed low at 80,907, close to the 50% fib. Price is now coiling between the 81,054 swing low and the 81,366 lower high after NY close, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,366 lower high reopens a test of the 81,700–81,717 day high
Loss of the 81,054 swing low exposes the post-fed low at 80,907; a break there undercuts the rising support line
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read via USD and yields
21:48 UTC
Post-FOMC recovery, pausing below the day high · RSI 58 · price 81,216.56
Higher lows since the 80,299 double bottom; tight range between 80,907 and 81,366.
The Fed's in-line 4% hold and a softer USD after the presser lifted BTC off the 80,299 double bottom and back above the asian high at 81,123. The NY rally hit a rejection at 81,703, matching the london high from the session open. Price is now consolidating between the 80,907 swing low and the 81,366 swing high, holding above the 38.2% retracement with RSI(14) at 58.
What it said to watch
A close above the 81,366 swing high reopens the 81,710 london high; a second rejection there would mark a double top
Loss of the 80,907 swing low and the rising support line breaks the post-Fed higher-low chain
Slipping back below the asian high at 81,123 returns price to the earlier session range
A break of the 80,299 double btm voids the post-FOMC recovery read
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu (~15h) could materially shift this read
21:33 UTC
Post-FOMC rebound, stalling below London high · RSI 55 · price 81,096.69
80,300–81,720 day range; lower highs since 81,703 rejection.
A softer USD after the Fed hold and Warsh presser lifted BTC from the 80,298 day low to 81,703. That high was rejected just under the 81,717 London high, and late NY now prints lower highs at 81,366 while the swing low at 80,907 holds above the round number at 81,000 and the 50% fib of the post-FOMC leg.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,366 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 81,717 London high
Loss of the 80,907 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 61.8% fib of the post-FOMC leg near 80,835
Acceptance below 81,000 round number shifts focus back toward the 80,298 day low
Late Powell/Fed-speaker headlines can still move USD; core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst
21:18 UTC
Post-Fed recovery, capped under day high · RSI 62 · price 81,293.47
Higher low at 80907 inside 80298–81717 day range.
NY session flushed to a day low at 80298, then the in-line Fed hold and a presser read as less hawkish than feared lifted BTC about 1,400 to 81703. That rally met rejection just under the London high, the 81717 day high. The pullback held the 80907 swing low, near the 61.8% of the FOMC rally fib, and price is now rebuilding above the 81190 minor low after NY close, with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 81,190.00, 80,907.00
Resistance: 81,349.41, 81,717.01
What it said to watch
Holding the 81190 minor low keeps the post-Fed recovery sequence intact into the Asia session
A break above the 81349 bounce high reopens the 81703–81717 day high zone; a second rejection there would sketch a double top
A close below the 80907 swing low breaks rising support and puts the 80298 day low back in play
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
21:08 UTC
Post-Fed rebound, stalling below day high · RSI 59 · price 81,220.55
Higher lows off the 80,299 NY low; capped by twin highs at 81,703–81,717.
The in-line Fed hold at 18:00 UTC and a softer USD during the presser lifted BTC from the 80,299 NY low to 81,703. Supply capped it just under the 81,717 London high, forming twin highs. The pullback held the 80,907 swing low between the 50% and 61.8% fib, and price now sits at 81,220 in late NY hours with RSI(14) near 59.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,515 swing high reopens the 81,703–81,717 twin highs
Failure to hold the 80,907 swing low breaks the post-Fed rising line and exposes the 80,660 fed bar low
Loss of 80,660 puts the 80,299 NY low back in play
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
24h range 80,299–81,717; second rejection under London high, pullback to 50% fib.
The Fed's in-line 4% hold and the press conference drove a FOMC rally off the 80,299 day low to 81,703, rejected just under the 81,717 London high. Late in the NY session price has retraced to the 50% fib near 81,000 and the 80,976 pullback low, back below the 81,123 Asian high. RSI(14) is neutral at 54.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,976 pullback low exposes the 80,624 FOMC low and the rising lows trendline; losing the 80,299 day low breaks the 24h range
Recovery above the 81,123 Asian high and 81,238 presser high reopens a test of the 81,717 London high
Press-conference tone still being digested; Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read
Rejection under day high, mid of 80299–81717 day range.
The in-line Fed hold and the press conference drove the FOMC leg from the 80,299 pre-decision low to 81,703. That rally was rejected just under the 81,717 day high set at London open, keeping price inside the 80,299–81,717 day range. Price has slipped back below the 81,123 Asian high and is holding the 80,976 swing low, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the FOMC leg, with RSI(14) cooled to ~56.
What it said to watch
Close back above the 81,123 Asian high and the 81,238 presser high reopens the 81,703–81,717 day high zone
Loss of the 80,976 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 80,835, then the 80,635 presser low
Post-FOMC USD and yield reaction still being digested and can stretch bars beyond the ~230-point ATR
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) are the next scheduled catalyst for the range
20:18 UTC
NY rally rejected at London high · RSI 62 · price 81,192.58
24h range 80,299–81,717; failed retest of top.
The NY rally from the 80,299 day low, extended by the hold-in-line FOMC decision and the presser, stalled at 81,703 just under the 81,717 london high. Price was rejected hard on the 20:00 UTC bar and is back below the 81,262 london floor. It now sits on the 38.2% fib of that leg, with RSI(14) near 62 cooling.
What it said to watch
15m close below the 81,166 38.2% fib opens the 80,817 presser low, near the 61.8% retracement
Reclaim of the 81,262 london floor brings the 81,717 london high back into focus; a second failure there marks a double top within the range
Loss of the 80,299 day low breaks the 24h range to the downside
Ongoing FOMC presser tone and Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE/GDP (~16h) could materially shift this read
20:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, rebuilding after NY selloff · RSI 75 · price 81,583.15
Higher-low chain off 80,298 NY low, through London shelf.
The Fed's in-line hold at 18:00 UTC kicked off a late-NY rally from the 80,298 low. Price has retraced about 90% of the London-NY drop on an unbroken higher-low chain and is now through the 81,500 London shelf, with RSI(14) near 75. The London high at 81,717 is the next reference while the Fed presser is still being digested.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 81,500 London shelf would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 81,226 higher low and the post-FOMC trendline near 81,250 breaks the intraday HL chain
Acceptance above the 81,717 London high completes the drop retrace and puts the 82,000 round number in view
Fed presser tone and Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE/GDP could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Higher lows off 80,299 day low; testing the 81,260–81,300 breakdown origin.
Price rebounded off the 80,299 day low, which formed a double bottom with the 12:45 UTC low. The move extended through the 18:00 UTC in-line Fed hold and presser, taking price above the 61.8% retracement of the 81,717–80,299 decline. It is now pressing the 81,260–81,300 breakdown area left by the 11:00 UTC flush, with RSI(14) near 70 and post-FOMC higher lows at 81,097 (FOMC high) and 80,901.
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes above the 81,300 breakdown area reopen the 81,521 London high and the 81,717 day high
Rejection at 81,300 and a slip back under the 81,097 FOMC high would stall the rebound inside the day fib
Loss of the 80,901 higher low, then the 80,635 presser low, undercuts the post-FOMC higher-low sequence
Fed presser still being digested; the USD and yield reaction can stretch M15 swings beyond the ~24,000-pip ATR
Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu (~17h) are the next scheduled volatility point
The London high at 81,717 faded through NY and broke the Asian range low, printing a double bottom at 80,330/80,299 (the NY low) before the in-line 4% Fed hold. The presser bar spiked to 81,238, and price has since built higher lows above the 80,624 fomc low, now testing the Asian high near 81,123 with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,238 presser high clears the post-FOMC spike and opens the path toward the London high at 81,717
Loss of the 80,943 higher low breaks the post-FOMC trendline; a move below the 80,624 fomc low undoes the double bottom breakout
Powell presser tone, then core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu, could materially shift this read via USD and yields
BTC built a double bottom near the 80,300 day low during NY hours. It then rallied into the 18:00 UTC Fed hold and spiked to the 81,238 fomc high during the presser, before printing a lower high at 81,138. Price now sits back near the top of the 80,520–81,120 Asian range, rising lows from the day low are intact, and the 81,521 range top and 81,717 London high from the morning are untested.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,238 fomc high opens the 81,521 range top and the 81,717 London high
Loss of the 80,817 post-fed low breaks the rising lows line
Failure back through the 80,518 asian low exposes the 80,299 day low and the double bottom
Fed presser still being digested; core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu (~17h) could materially shift this read
19:05 UTC
Rebounding off NY low, post-FOMC spike faded · RSI 61 · price 80,958.84
Higher low at 80,298; 81,237 spike rejected, pullback holding 80,817.
The Fed's in-line 4% hold at 18:00 UTC extended the late-NY bounce off the 80,298 NY low into an 81,237 spike during the presser. That spike was rejected, and the pullback found support at 80,817 between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the move. Price is late in the NY session, back below the 81,123 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR elevated at about $225 on post-FOMC swings.
What it said to watch
Close above the 81,237 fomc high clears the presser rejection and exposes the 81,717 london high
Loss of the 80,817 pullback low and the NY rising line puts the 80,624 fomc lows and the 61.8% fib in play
Break below the 80,298 NY low invalidates the higher-low structure
Presser tone still being digested; core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu (~17.5h) could materially shift this read
18:49 UTC
Intraday rebound off session low, capped after FOMC spike · RSI 58 · price 80,956.84
Higher lows since 80300; back inside Asian range below 81123.
The as-expected Fed hold at 3.75-4.00% extended the late-NY rebound off the 80299 session low, and the presser bar spiked to an 81238 presser high before the current bar slipped back below the 81123 asian high. Higher lows are holding along a rising trendline, with price sitting just above the 38.2% fib of the rebound. RSI(14) is near 58 and ATR is around $228 per bar.
Support: 80,879.00, 80,635.00, 80,299.00
Resistance: 81,123.00, 81,238.00, 81,717.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81238 presser high would mark the asian high break as accepted and open the path toward the 81717 london high
Loss of the 80879 38.2% fib and the rising trendline brings the 80635 presser low back into play
A break below 80635 would leave the 80299 session low as the next reference
Fed chair presser commentary on December is still running and can produce further $400-600 bars
18:33 UTC
Recovering intraday, rising lows off NY low · RSI 62 · price 80,912.89
Higher lows from 80298 NY low; Fed spike rejected below Asian high, price back inside Asian range.
London's break above the Asian range to 81717 (london high) failed. NY then broke below the 80518 Asian low and double-bottomed near 80300 (ny low) before a false break reversal. The 18:00 UTC Fed hold bar spiked to 81097 (fomc high) and was rejected under the Asian high, but rising lows above the 80624 fomc low have price back at 80913, near the 23.6% fib of the NY low–fomc high leg, with RSI(14) around 62.
Support: 80,624.00, 80,518.00, 80,298.00
Resistance: 81,097.00, 81,717.00
What it said to watch
FOMC presser now underway at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 81097 fomc high and 81123 Asian high opens the path back toward the 81717 london high
Failure to hold the 80624 fomc low breaks the ny rising-low line and exposes the 80518 asian low, then the 80298 ny low
ATR(14) near 185 USD per bar; presser volatility likely to expand range
Lower highs off London high, double low near 80300, Fed spike rejected.
London spiked to 81717 before NY unwound the move into a double low near the 80300 NY low. The as-expected Fed hold at 18:00 UTC produced a wick to the 81097 FOMC high, just under the 81123 Asian high and inside the 50–61.8% fib of the London-NY drop, and was rejected back toward 80680.
Support: 80,660.00, 80,518.00, 80,300.00
Resistance: 80,880.00, 81,097.00
What it said to watch
Powell presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read within the next bar
M15 close above the 81097 FOMC high reclaims the Asian range top and the 61.8% fib zone
Rejection under the 80880 pre-fed high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the 80660 FOMC low exposes the 80518 Asian low
Break of the rising support from the 80300 NY low invalidates the double low
18:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, rebounding into FOMC · RSI 60 · price 80,792.03
London spike to 81717 reversed in NY; double bottom 80330/80300, bounce stalling under 38.2% fib.
The London-open run to 81717 was fully unwound during NY hours. Two lows at 80330 and the 80299 session low formed a double bottom, and the bounce has run into the 18:00 UTC Fed decision bar, which is capped so far at 80911 near the 38.2% fib (~80840). RSI(14) is near 60 and price is back above the ema20 at 80636, with ATR around $180 a bar and widening on the Fed.
Support: 80,636.00, 80,518.00, 80,299.00
Resistance: 80,911.00, 81,262.00, 81,717.00
What it said to watch
FOMC presser at 18:30 UTC could reprice this read sharply. A firmer USD from a hawkish Warsh would test the ema20 and the 80518 asian low.
A close above the 80911 fomc bar hi and the 50% fib (~81008) opens the 81262 london base, where the NY breakdown began.
Failure back below the 80299 session low voids the double bottom and resumes the lower-low sequence from the 81717 london high.
Lower highs from London peak; higher low at 80392 within NY.
London's break of the 81122 asian high to 81717 failed and reversed through the 80518 asian low into NY, printing a session low at 80298. A higher low at 80392 has price pressing the 80668 swing high, at the 23.6% retracement, minutes before the 18:00 UTC FOMC decision.
Support: 80,518.33, 80,392.47
Resistance: 80,668.16, 80,832.98
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 80668 swing high opens the 80833 ny open high / 38.2% retracement
Failure to hold the 80392 higher low puts the 80298 session low back in play
Loss of 80518 asian low on a closing basis returns price to the lower-high sequence
17:33 UTC
Downtrend, basing into FOMC · RSI 44 · price 80,502.34
London spike fully reversed; NY low base 80300–80670 below the Asian low.
London's break above the Asian range to 81717 was a false break. It unwound from 12:00 UTC, and the NY session sliced through the 80518 Asian low to a session low at 80298.57. Late NY is now compressing between the 80368 swing low and the 80668 lower high just below EMA20 ahead of the 18:00 UTC Fed decision, with no fresh BTC-specific driver.
Support: 80,368.49, 80,298.57
Resistance: 80,518.33, 80,668.16, 80,832.98
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 155 points already elevated
M15 close back above the 80518 asian low and then the 80668 lower high (23.6% fib) would weaken the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 80298 session low extends the NY lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 80833 ny open high near the 38.2% fib would mark the London-to-NY selloff as retraced
17:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London high · RSI 38 · price 80,394.46
London spike to 81717 fully reversed; Asian range broken lower, NY base near 80300.
London cleared the Asian high to 81717, then the 12:00 UTC breakdown through 80820 unwound the whole move and broke below the Asian low at 80518. In the NY session the session low near 80300 has held twice (13:45 and 16:45 UTC), each bounce capped by a lower swing high around 80645–80668. RSI(14) sits near 38 in pre-FOMC wait mode.
Support: 80,000.00
Resistance: 80,518.33, 80,668.16
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 80300 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 80000 round number
Reclaim of the 80518 Asian low and a break of the 80668 swing high invalidate the lower-high trendline
Failure at 80820 breakdown level would keep the London reversal intact
The London-open spike to 81717 fully unwound across the London-NY transition, with NY breaking below the asian low at 80518 and printing a lower high at 80668. The 16:45 UTC bar swept the 80330 low to a fresh session low at 80299 before snapping back, but price is fading under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 39 an hour ahead of the Fed.
Support: 80,298.57, 80,351.51, 80,000.00
Resistance: 80,518.33, 80,668.16
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close back above the asian low at 80518 and the 80668 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 80299 session low and 80352 prior low exposes the 80000 round number
Reclaim of 80840 (38.2% of the London-NY selloff) needed to challenge the downtrend read
London spike to 81717 fully reversed; lower highs below the broken Asian range low.
London open pushed BTC to 81717, but a 12:00 UTC breakdown took price back through the Asian low at 80518 to an 80330 swing low during NY hours. Price is now holding just above that low on a falling lower-highs line from the 80833 NY open high and 80668 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 34 into the Fed decision.
Support: 80,330.00, 80,000.00
Resistance: 80,518.00, 80,668.00, 80,833.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80330 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 80000 round number
Reclaim of the 80518 Asian low and a break above the 80668 bounce high would invalidate the lower-highs line
A move through the 80833 NY open high would put price back near the 38.2% retrace of the 81717 drop
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest frames the risk as hawkish against a hot data backdrop
Lower highs below the Asia range low after a failed London spike.
The London open spike to 81,717 was rejected, and the 81,300 shelf gave way at 12:00 UTC. The first hour of NY extended to a day low at 80,330, below the Asia low at 80,518. Price is now compressing under a falling trendline of lower highs (80,668 last) in pre-FOMC wait mode, with RSI(14) near 39 and a swing low at 80,411.
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close back above the 80,518 Asia low and the 80,668 lower high breaks the falling trendline sequence
Failure to hold the 80,411 swing low exposes the 80,330 day low and a fresh lower low
Recovery to the fib 38.2 at 80,860 would mark a deeper retrace of the 81,717–80,330 drop
London false break reversed, lower highs below Asian low.
The London open push above the Asian range to 81717 failed. NY hours then drove price back through the 80518 Asian low to a session low at 80330, near yesterday's 80340 area. Bounces stalled at 80833 and the 80668 lower high under a descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 38 and price in pre-Fed wait mode.
Support: 80,411.45, 80,329.54
Resistance: 80,518.33, 80,668.16, 80,859.60
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC can override this structure; the 17100-pip ATR understates likely event range
A break of the 80330 session low extends the lower-low chain; failure to hold the 15:45 low at 80411 opens that test
An M15 close back above the 80518 asian low and the descending trendline negates the lower-high read, with the 80668 lower high next
Rejection below the fib 38.2 at 80860 keeps the 81717–80330 drop intact
Lower highs below 80668 after NY sweep of prior lows.
London's 08:30 UTC spike to 81717 faded, and the NY session unwound the day's gain. It cut through the Asian low at 80518 and swept yesterday's 80340 low to a session low of 80330 before buyers stepped in. Since then a lower-high chain from the ny bounce at 80833 down to 80668 caps price below EMA20, with BTC in pre-FOMC wait mode and RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 80,368.00, 80,330.00
Resistance: 80,668.00, 80,833.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80668 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 80833 ny bounce aligns with the 38.2% fib of the London-NY drop
Failure to hold the 80368 higher low, then the 80330 session low, extends the NY decline
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; hot US data leaves the hawkish risk elevated for BTC
Failed London breakout above Asian high, lower highs since 12:00 UTC, NY low holding.
London took out the 81123 Asian high to 81717, but the break failed and price slid from 12:00 UTC to an 80330 NY low, sweeping the prior-day low near 80340. The rebound is capped at the 80668 swing high and is sitting just above the 80518 Asian low, with pre-FOMC positioning keeping ranges wide.
Support: 80,518.33, 80,329.54
Resistance: 80,668.16, 81,122.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80880 breakdown level (near the 38.2% fib) would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the asian low at 80518 re-exposes the 80330 ny low
Reclaim of the 81123 asian high would negate the false break
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:18 UTC
Downtrend from London high, stabilising · RSI 36 · price 80,600.24
Lower highs below a descending line; false break of the Asian low reclaimed.
London's push through the 81123 Asian high to 81717 fully reversed from 11:30 UTC. The drop undercut the 80518 Asian low to a session low of 80330 before price reclaimed 80520. Early NY now sits just under a descending line near 80645, with RSI(14) near 36 and the market in pre-FOMC mode.
Support: 80,518.00, 80,330.00
Resistance: 80,830.00, 81,123.00
What it said to watch
A close above the descending line and the 80830 bounce high would break the lower-high sequence and bring the 38.2% retrace of the London drop (~80860) into view; the 81123 Asian high sits above that
A close back below the 80518 Asian low exposes the 80330 session low again and would turn the reclaim into a failed false break
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the FOMC presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 169 dollars is likely to expand around the headlines
15:05 UTC
Downtrend from the London high, bounce stalling · RSI 35 · price 80,575.26
Lower highs from 81,717; Asian low reclaimed after a false break.
The 81,717 London high gave way from 12:00 UTC, and the slide carried through the NY open to an 80,330 session low, briefly breaking under the 80,518 Asian low before price climbed back above it. The bounce is capped by a lower high at 80,780 beneath the 80,833 NY high, with RSI(14) near 35 and price below both EMAs as BTC trades as a macro risk proxy about 3h before FOMC.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80,518 asian low reopens the 80,330 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain toward the 80,192 24h low
M15 close above the 80,833 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the 38.2% fib near 80,860 and the 81,123 asian high into view
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR(14) near 185 USD is likely to expand around the headlines
Lower highs and lower lows since 81717 London-open high; Asian range low broken.
The London-open push to 81717 failed, and the 81260–81520 range low gave way at 12:00 UTC. Selling then cut through the asian low at 80518 to a session low of 80330 in the first hour of NY, with descending highs capping each bounce. RSI(14) is near 30 and the move sits below the 38.2% fib at 80860, with BTC in pre-FOMC limbo and no crypto-specific driver.
Support: 80,330.00, 80,133.00
Resistance: 80,520.00, 80,835.00, 81,260.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 80520 and the descending highs line near 80700 would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold the session low at 80330 extends the lower-low chain toward the 24h low at 80133
A reclaim of the lower high at 80835 and the 38.2% fib at 80860 would end the lower-high sequence; the range low at 81260 caps above
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Fed chair presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:33 UTC
Downtrend, oversold-adjacent at Asian low · RSI 31 · price 80,522.32
Lower highs from London high; NY swept below Asian low.
London's break above the 81,123 Asian high to 81,717 was a false break. Lower highs have followed since, and NY swept below the 80,518 Asian low to a session low of 80,330. Price is back at the Asian low with RSI(14) near 31, sitting below both EMAs ahead of the 18:00 UTC FOMC decision.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,833 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 80,330 session low exposes the 80,110 prior low from yesterday's NY session
Reclaim of the 81,123 Asian high would neutralise the London false break
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the London high; sweep below Asian low reclaimed.
London's 81,262–81,521 range gave way at 12:00 UTC, unwinding the run to the 81,717 session high. The first hour of NY then swept the 80,518 Asian low down to the 80,330 NY low, but closed back above it. Price is now pinned under the 80,833 NY open high and below the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) near 33, as BTC drifts in pre-FOMC limbo against a firm dollar.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 80,518 Asian low turns the sweep into a fresh lower low and puts the 80,330 NY low back in play
Recovery above the 80,833 NY open high brings the 38.2% fib near 80,860 and the 81,262 range floor into view
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early NY rebound attempt · RSI 39 · price 80,590.25
London range broken lower; lower highs; Asian low swept and reclaimed.
London's push above the asian high at 81,123 to 81,717 has fully unwound after a 12:00 UTC drop through the 81,260 range floor. In the first hour of NY, price swept the asian low at 80,518 down to the 80,330 sweep low, then closed back above it. RSI(14) sits near 39, and rebounds are capped below the ny high at 80,833 and the lower highs line ahead of the Fed.
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 80,518 asian low turns the sweep into a fresh lower-low; failure at the 80,330 sweep low exposes the 80,000 round number
A close above the 80,833 ny high breaks the lower highs line; the 50% fib near 81,023 and the 81,123 asian high come next
Reclaiming the 81,260 range floor would negate the London breakdown read
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read
Lower highs after London range break, back inside Asian range.
The London-open spike to 81,717 has fully unwound since the 12:00 UTC break of the 81,230–81,520 consolidation, with lower highs since. At the NY open, price swept the Asian low at 80,518 to a session low of 80,486, then bounced to the NY open high at 80,833. It now sits near 80,640 with RSI(14) around 39, and pre-FOMC caution is keeping follow-through thin.
What it said to watch
Close above the NY open high at 80,833 and the 38.2% London rally fib near 80,957 eases the lower-high sequence; asian high at 81,123 sits above
Failure to hold the session low at 80,486 opens the path toward the 80,000 round number
Reclaiming the range base at 81,227 negates the London range break
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:18 UTC
Intraday downturn after failed London breakout · RSI 36 · price 80,672.16
London break above Asian high fully reversed; lower high at 80969, price back inside Asian range.
London's break of the Asian high ran to 81717 and then fully unwound. The 12:00 UTC selloff cut through the london base at 81227 and put price back inside the Asian range, printing an 80607 session low and an 80969 lower high. USD firmness into tonight's FOMC frames the tone, with RSI(14) near 36 and the NY open just ahead.
Support: 80,607.23, 80,518.33
Resistance: 80,968.83, 81,122.66, 81,226.55
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80607 session low exposes the 80518 asian low
Recovery above the 80969 lower high puts the 81123 asian high back in play
Reclaim of the 81227 london base needed to negate the false break; 50% of the london drop fib sits near 81162
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London break above Asian range fully unwound; lower highs and lower lows since 12:00 UTC.
London broke above the asian high at 81123 to a session high of 81717, but the move fully unwound during the London-NY transition. A 440-dollar bar cut through the 81226 range floor and pushed price back into the Asian range, with a session low at 80607 and RSI(14) near 26. The drop comes with USD firm ahead of today's FOMC.
Support: 80,607.23, 80,518.33, 80,000.00
Resistance: 80,968.83, 81,122.66
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80607 session low exposes the asian low at 80518
A break below the 80518 asian low shifts focus to the 80000 round number
Recovery above the 80969 bounce high reopens the 38.2% sell-off fib near 81030 and the asian high at 81123
Reclaiming the 81226 range floor would negate the false-break read
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London range broken lower, price back inside Asian range.
London's break above the asian high at 81122 ran to 81717, then failed. The 12:00 UTC break of the 81227 london low erased the move and set a 80607 session low, below the 78.6% level of the London rally fib, with USD firm at two-week highs into the Fed. RSI(14) sits near 30; the 80969 bounce high is the first cap overhead.
Support: 80,607.23, 80,518.33
Resistance: 80,968.83, 81,226.55
What it said to watch
A close below the 80518 asian low takes price under the entire overnight range
Recovery above the 80969 bounce high and 81122 asian high would reopen the london low at 81227
NY open in the next hour, then the Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
London open broke the Asian high at 81122 and ran to a session high at 81717, but the 12:00 UTC flush erased the move and price sits at 80814, testing the 80751 swing low with RSI(14) near 29. The reversal into the first hour of NY fits the pre-FOMC tone, with USD at two-week highs on firm US data.
Support: 80,751.00, 80,518.00
Resistance: 81,122.00, 81,262.00, 81,717.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80751 swing low opens the Asian low at 80518
Recovery above the 81122 Asian high, the 61.8% fib, would mark the drop as a flush; the 81262 London low caps above that
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London break above the Asian range reversed; price back inside the Asian range.
London broke the asian high at 81123 and printed a session high of 81717, then held an 81230–81520 london shelf through the morning before the 12:00 UTC bar dropped about 430 into the pre-NY hour. That drop took back more than 78.6% of the London leg and returned price inside the Asian range, with the pre-ny low at 80809 holding so far as USD sits firm at two-week highs into the Fed.
Support: 80,809.01, 80,751.07, 80,518.33
Resistance: 81,122.66, 81,226.55, 81,717.01
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81123 asian high would put price above the Asian range again, with the london shelf at 81227 next
Failure to hold the 80809 pre-ny low and the 80751 london base completes a full retrace of the London leg and exposes the 80518 asian low
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 145 points sets the expected bar size
12:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 52 · price 81,235.54
London breakout above the Asian range; lower high at 81521, now retesting the breakout zone.
The London open cleared the Asian high at 81123 and ran to a session high at 81717. Price has since printed a lower high at 81521 and slipped below ema20, and now sits on the 50% retracement of the London move near 81234. RSI(14) has cooled to 52 as BTC trades as a risk asset into the Fed, with USD firm at two-week highs.
Support: 81,123.00, 80,751.00
Resistance: 81,521.00, 81,717.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the Asian high at 81123, the 61.8% of the London move, turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 80751 swing low
An M15 close back above ema20 and the pullback line near 81410, then the 81521 lower high, reopens the 81717 session high
The NY open in about 90 minutes may set the next session range
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; hawkish guidance on sticky inflation is the digest's base case
London breakout above Asian high, now a tight range with lower highs.
London open broke the Asian range high at 81,122 and ran to a session high of 81,717. Price has since held an 81,262–81,521 consolidation, with the swing low sitting on the 38.2% fib of the 80,518–81,717 leg. Highs are stepping lower into the Fed, RSI(14) is neutral near 55, and price is hugging the EMA20.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,262 swing low breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the Asian high at 81,122
M15 close above the 81,521 lower high clears the lower-highs line and reopens the 81,717 session high
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read; the digest's base case is a hawkish hold
11:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after London spike · RSI 57 · price 81,325.44
Consolidation 81262–81521 above Asian range high.
London open broke above the Asian high at 81122 and spiked to an 81717 session high. Price has since compressed into an 81262–81521 range with a lower high at 81521, sitting near the 38.2% retracement and just above EMA20 with RSI(14) ~57. The move is contained as the USD stays firm into today's FOMC.
Resistance: 81,521.22, 81,717.01
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81262 range low puts the 81122 Asian high back in play as a retest
M15 close above the 81521 lower high breaks the descending highs and reopens the 81717 session high
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian range high; lower high at 81521, now testing the London low.
London open cleared the Asian high at 81123 and ran to a session high at 81717. Price has since faded through a lower high at 81521 and now sits on the 81262 London low and EMA20, between the 38.2% and 50% fib levels. RSI(14) has cooled to 53, and firm US data plus FOMC risk keep BTC trading as a macro risk asset.
Support: 81,122.70
Resistance: 81,521.20, 81,717.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81262 london low opens a retest of the 81123 asian high, near the 61.8% fib
Reclaim of the 81521 lower high puts the 81717 session high back in play
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:05 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating after London breakout · RSI 60 · price 81,374.38
HH/HL chain; tight 81262–81521 range above broken Asian high.
London open cleared the 81123 Asian high and the 81185 prior high, then spiked to an 81717 session high before settling into an 81262–81521 range mid-session. The 81262 swing low sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asian low–session high leg, with EMA20 rising just beneath. RSI(14) has cooled to ~60 as BTC tracks risk mood into the Fed with no crypto-specific catalyst.
Support: 81,184.59, 81,122.66
Resistance: 81,521.22, 81,717.01
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81262 swing low and EMA20 opens a retest of the 81123–81185 asian high / prior high zone
Acceptance back below the 81123 asian high returns price inside the Asian range and negates the breakout
Close above the 81521 range top puts the 81717 session high back in play
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish hold is the digest's base case
10:47 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating after London breakout · RSI 65 · price 81,489.26
Asian range broken higher; higher low at 81,262 holding, tight range under 81,500.
London cleared the Asian high at 81,123 and the overnight prior high at 81,184, ran to a session high of 81,717, then pulled back about half of the leg to a pullback low at 81,262. Price is now compressing just under the 81,500 round number with RSI(14) near 65. The US data tape is firm and the market is waiting on tonight's FOMC.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,262 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 81,184 prior high and 81,123 Asian high back in play
Acceptance above the 81,500 round number reopens a test of the 81,717 session high
NY open at 13:30 UTC and today's US Consumer Confidence could expand the current tight range
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read; a hawkish tone with a firming USD has been the base case
10:34 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after London push · RSI 66 · price 81,433.32
Higher lows since 79730; tight range 81262–81495 after breakout.
London open broke the Asian high at 81123 and yesterday's 81185 peak, running to a session high at 81717 before a rejection pulled price back to the range low at 81262, a 38.2% retrace of the Asia-low leg. Since then BTC has compressed between 81262 and a range top near 81495. This comes despite a firm USD into today's FOMC, with no crypto-specific driver in the tape.
Support: 81,262.00, 81,123.00, 80,518.00
Resistance: 81,495.00, 81,717.00, 82,000.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 81495 range top reopens the 81717 session high, with the 82000 round number beyond
Loss of the 81262 range low exposes the 81123 asian high and the 50% fib
Break of the rising trendline from 79774 would end the higher-low chain toward the 80518 asian low
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:18 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after London spike · RSI 66 · price 81,427.33
Asian range broken higher, higher low held, tight range below 81,495.
London open cleared the Asian high at 81,123 and spiked to the 81,717 London high. The pullback held at 81,262, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 80,751–81,717 leg and on rising support. Mid-London, price is compressing between that pullback low and the 81,495 range top, with RSI(14) near 66 and cooling, ahead of tonight's FOMC.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,262 pullback low breaks rising support and exposes the 81,123 Asian high near the 61.8% fib
Close above the 81,495 range top reopens the 81,717 London high
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; guidance tone, not the expected hold, is the swing factor
Asian range broken higher at London open; higher lows at 80751 and 81262.
London open cleared the Asian high at 81120 and ran to 81717. The pullback held at 81262, near the 50% fib of the 80751–81717 leg, and price is now holding mid-session above both EMAs with RSI(14) near 68. BTC is trading as a macro risk asset ahead of today's Fed decision.
Support: 80,751.07
Resistance: 81,717.01, 82,000.00
What it said to watch
Holding the 81262 pullback low keeps the higher-low line intact; a break exposes the Asian high at 81120
M15 close back below the 80751 swing low negates the London breakout
M15 close above the 81717 London high opens the path to the 82000 round number
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 67 · price 81,438.31
London breakout above Asian high, now retesting it.
London open pushed BTC through the asian high at 81,123 and Monday's 81,185 spike to a london high at 81,717. The pullback low at 81,263 held near the 50% fib of the pre-london run from 80,751, with RSI(14) cooled from overbought. No crypto-specific news; BTC is trading as a risk asset into the Fed with USD firm.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,263 pullback low puts the asian high at 81,123 back in play as the retest level
Acceptance back inside the Asian range below 81,123 would mark the breakout as a false break
Close above the 81,717 london high reopens the path to the 82,000 round number
Rising lows from 80,518 break below 80,751 pre-london low ends the intraday uptrend read
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after London breakout · RSI 67 · price 81,401.35
Asian range broken higher, consolidating above breakout zone.
London open broke the 80518–81123 Asian range and cleared yesterday's NY spike high at 81185, running to a London high at 81717. Price has since held a pullback low near 81340, close to the 38.2% fib of the London leg, with RSI(14) cooling to about 67. USD is firm at two-week highs into FOMC, which keeps the breakout exposed to a macro swing.
Support: 81,340.42, 81,184.59, 81,122.66
Resistance: 81,717.01, 82,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 81123 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 81340 pullback low exposes the 81185 NY spike high as the retest zone
Close above the 81717 London high opens the path toward the 82000 round number
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:18 UTC
Uptrend, London breakout consolidating · RSI 69 · price 81,456.29
Asian range broken higher; pullback low held above prior high.
The London open broke the Asian high at 81,123 and the overnight prior high at 81,185, running to a session high at 81,717. The London leg then retraced to a pullback low at 81,361, close to the 38.2% fib, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 69 from overbought. BTC is still trading the US macro tape into today's Fed decision.
What it said to watch
A hold above the 81,361 pullback low keeps the London leg's higher-low structure intact
An M15 close back below the 81,185 prior high and the 81,123 asian high (61.8% fib) would mark a false break
An M15 close above the 81,717 session high opens the 82,000 round number
The Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:06 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after rejection · RSI 67 · price 81,409.35
HH/HL chain; London broke above the Asian range high, then rejected at 81,717.
London open cleared the 81,122 Asian high and the 81,185 prior high from late NY, running to an 81,717 session high before a sharp rejection to an 81,376 pullback low. Price is holding near the 38.2% fib of the 80,751–81,717 leg with RSI(14) cooled to ~67. The dollar's pre-FOMC firmness has not yet weighed on this leg.
What it said to watch
Holding the 81,376 pullback low keeps the London breakout intact; losing it exposes the 81,185 prior high
M15 close back below the 81,122 Asian high, near the 61.8% fib, would mark the breakout as a false break
M15 close above the 81,717 session high opens the 82,000 round number
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:48 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive leg pausing · RSI 79 · price 81,532.21
London open breakout above Asian range, higher lows since 01:00 UTC.
London open broke the Asian high at 81122 and the late-NY prior high at 81184, running to a session high at 81717 in two bars. RSI(14) has cooled from about 82 to 79 on the first pullback, and the 61.8% fib of the swing low leg from 80751 sits on the Asian high, under the higher-lows line from 01:00 UTC.
Support: 80,751.07
Resistance: 81,717.01, 82,000.00
What it said to watch
Holding above the 81184 prior high and 81122 asian high keeps the breakout intact. A return inside the Asian range would mark a false break.
A close above the 81717 session high opens the 82000 round number.
A break below the 80751 swing low would undercut the higher-lows trendline.
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (21:00 broker), presser 18:30 UTC. The digest flags a hawkish hold as the base case, which could materially shift this read.
08:32 UTC
Uptrend, fresh London breakout · RSI 73 · price 81,342.42
Higher lows 80,518 → 80,751; broke above Asian range and overnight high.
London open lifted BTC through the 81,122 Asian high and the 81,185 overnight prior high to a session high at 81,411, RSI(14) near 73 with ATR running about $96. Higher lows at 80,518 and 80,751 hold the higher-low trendline. The move comes as the USD sits at two-week highs into today's FOMC.
What it said to watch
Holding above the 81,185 prior high and 81,122 Asian high keeps the breakout intact; a close back inside the Asian range would mark a false break
M15 close above the 81,411 session high opens the 81,500 round number
Break of the 80,751 swing low and the higher-low trendline ends the higher-low sequence; the 50–61.8% retrace of the Asian-low leg sits at 80,965–80,860
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 64 · price 81,076.71
Higher lows since 80518, testing Asian range high.
Early London lifted BTC back to the 81123 asian high after the pre-London dip held the 61.8% retrace at the 80751 swing low. The higher lows from the 80518 asian low remain intact, and RSI(14) sits near 64. The late-NY spike high at 81185 caps the move above, with firm US data and a hawkish-hold lean framing the run into today's Fed decision.
Support: 80,751.07, 80,518.33
Resistance: 81,122.66, 81,184.59
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81185 spike high clears the 24h range top
Failure to hold the 80751 swing low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 80518 asian low
Rejection at the 81123 asian high keeps price inside the Asian range
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, presser 18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows inside Asian range, capped below Asia/NY highs.
Early London is pressing back toward the Asia high at 81122 after a higher swing low at 80751 late in Asia. Price is still inside the 80518–81122 Asian range and below the NY high at 81184, where a late-NY spike was rejected. Higher lows are holding despite a firm USD at two-week highs into today's FOMC, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 80,751.07, 80,518.33
What it said to watch
M15 close above the Asia high at 81122 and the NY high at 81184 breaks the session range to the upside
Loss of the 80751 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the Asia low at 80518, near the 38.2% of the rally fib, in play
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact; inside the Asian range with a lower high at 81123.
London opens inside the Asian range (80518–81123). The pullback from the Asian high held a swing low at 80751, near the 61.8% of the Asian leg, and higher lows from 79406 remain intact. The Asian high capped below the late-NY prior high at 81185, and RSI(14) sits flat near 52 as a firm USD holds into today's FOMC.
Support: 80,751.07, 80,518.33
Resistance: 81,122.66, 81,184.59
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81123 Asian high retests the 81185 prior high
Failure to hold the 80751 swing low exposes the 80518 Asian low and breaks the higher-lows trendline
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC with Powell at 18:30 could materially shift this read; a hawkish tone with firm USD weighs on risk
Higher lows from 79406, compressing inside Asian range.
BTC is compressing between the 80751 session low and the 81000 round number into early London. Price sits mid-way inside the Asian range (80518 Asian low, 81123 Asian high) after the late-NY spike high at 81185 met rejection. Higher lows since the 79406 base remain intact on rising support near 80620, with the 80405 swing low below. RSI(14) is neutral at 46 as firm USD and pre-FOMC caution keep ranges tight.
Support: 80,751.07, 80,518.33, 80,405.45
Resistance: 81,000.00, 81,122.66, 81,184.59
What it said to watch
A break of the 80751 session low exposes the 80518 Asian low and the 38.2% fib of the 79406-81185 swing near 80505.
A close below rising support (~80620) and the 80405 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence.
A close above the 81123 Asian high and the 81185 spike high resumes the higher-high chain.
The FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
07:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, drifting lower since Asia high · RSI 42 · price 80,818.00
Higher lows intact from 79405; lower highs since the 81122 Asia peak, compressing 80750–81000.
London open finds BTC mid-Asian range after a slow lower-highs drift off the 81122 Asian high, holding the 50% retrace near 80820 with the fib 61.8 at 80751 marking the session low. A range cap near 81000 has held through Asia, and firm US data plus a pre-FOMC USD bid keep upside attempts contained.
Support: 80,751.00, 80,518.00
Resistance: 81,122.00, 81,184.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the fib 61.8 at 80751 exposes the 80518 asian low and breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the lower highs line and the 81000 range cap reopens the 81122 asian high and the 81184 spike high
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Late Asia drifted lower from the 81,122 asian high in a string of lower highs. That leaves price at London open near the 61.8% retrace of the overnight 80,518–81,122 leg, just above the 80,751 micro low. Rising lows from the 80,351 swing low still hold the climb off yesterday's 79,405 London low, despite firm US data and a firmer USD into the FOMC; RSI(14) is near 39, with price below EMA20 and just above EMA50.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,751 micro low exposes the 80,518 asian low
Loss of the 80,518 asian low and the rising lows line breaks the higher-low chain toward the 80,351 swing low
Close above the 80,935 lower high ends the late-Asia drift; 81,122 asian high then 81,185 ny spike hi above
FOMC at 18:00 UTC (hold at 4% priced) — guidance tone could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 43 · price 80,828.99
Asian swing 80518–81122, now compressing above 80800 with lower highs.
Asian session ran from the 80518 asian low to an 81122 asian high, then faded into an 80800–80930 band. Price is sitting on the 80800 range floor and the 50% retracement into London open, with RSI(14) near 43. The prior NY spike high at 81185 was rejected, and USD is firm at two-week highs ahead of today's FOMC.
Support: 80,518.00
Resistance: 81,122.00, 81,185.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80800 range floor exposes the 61.8% retracement near 80750, then the 80518 asian low
Break of the lower-highs line and 81122 asian high reopens the 81185 spike high
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Powell presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
06:34 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below asian high · RSI 50 · price 80,838.97
Higher lows from 79405, now a tight 80802–80915 range.
Higher lows held from Tuesday's 79405 London low. The Asian session pushed to the 81122 asian high, short of the late-NY 81185 spike high that was rejected. Price has since compressed into an 80802–80915 range near the 50% retrace of the asian leg, with RSI(14) flat at 50 into London open.
Support: 80,802.01, 80,518.33
Resistance: 80,914.89, 81,184.59
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80802 range floor breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 80518 asian low
M15 close above the 80915 range top reopens the 81122 asian high and the 81185 spike high
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC today and the 18:30 presser, with USD firm at two-week highs; a hawkish hold could pressure BTC and shift this read
06:04 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in late Asia · RSI 46 · price 80,803.01
Asian range 80518–81122 inside the late-NY spike high; lower highs since 03:30 UTC pressing an 80800 floor.
The higher-low chain from yesterday's 79405 low is intact. The late-NY rejection at the 81184 swing high capped price, and the Asian range is now compressing onto the 80800 floor ahead of London open. The Asian low held near the 38.2% fib at 80505, and RSI(14) sits at a neutral 46.
Support: 80,518.33
What it said to watch
Break of the 80800 floor exposes rising sup near 80640, then the asian low at 80518
Close above the asian high at 81122 reopens the 81184 swing high
Loss of 80518 and the 38.2% fib breaks the intraday higher-low chain
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in late Asia · RSI 53 · price 80,865.94
Higher lows since Tuesday London, consolidating below Asian high.
Asia session rallied from the 80518 Asian low to 81122, stalling just under Tuesday's NY spike high at 81184. Price has since held a micro low near 80804, around the 50% fib of the Asian leg and on the rising support line, while capped by a lower high at 80998 ahead of London open, with BTC tracking a firm USD into the 18:00 UTC FOMC decision.
Support: 80,804.00, 80,611.00, 80,518.33
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80804 micro low and rising support exposes the 80611 swing low and the 80518 Asian low
Close above the 80998 lower high reopens the 81122 Asian high and the 81184 spike high
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain intact; pullback from Asian high onto rising trendline.
Higher lows have stacked from 79,405 since the firm US durables print on Tuesday. The Asian session pushed to an 81,123 high but stalled under the 81,185 spike high and has faded back below the 81,000 round number. Late in the Asian range, price sits on the rising trendline just above the 80,804 pullback low, under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
What it said to watch
A close below the 80,804 pullback low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 80,518 Asian low, near the 38.2% fib.
Losing the 80,405 swing low would turn the intraday sequence to lower lows.
Reclaiming 81,000 and clearing the 81,123 Asian high reopens the 81,185 spike high.
The London open is the next test of the Asian range.
FOMC at 18:00 UTC (hold expected; guidance is the swing factor) could materially shift this read.
Higher lows since 79,405; lower high under 81,185 spike.
Late Asia session: BTC ran from the 80,518 asian low to the 81,123 asian high, short of yesterday's 81,185 spike high, then faded to 80,839. Price is retesting the rising trendline from the 79,405 low near the 50% of the Asian leg, with the 80,804 pullback low and the 80,999 lower high framing a tight range. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 as the digest flags a hawkish macro tone into FOMC.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,804 pullback low and rising trendline exposes the 80,518 asian low, then the 80,351 swing low
Close above the 80,999 lower high reopens the 81,123 asian high and 81,185 spike high
London open around 08:00 UTC is the first test of the Asian range
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 79405; Asian range 80518–81123 capped below ny high.
Late Asia session: the Asian high at 81123 stalled just under the late-NY spike high at 81185, and price has retraced about half of the 80518–81123 Asia leg to 80870, sitting on EMA20 and just above the pullback low at 80831. The rising trendline from 79774 is intact, and RSI(14) is neutral near 52. Firm US data and a two-week USD high keep the tone cautious into today's FOMC.
Support: 80,831.00, 80,790.00, 80,518.00
Resistance: 81,123.00, 81,185.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below 80790 breaks the rising trendline and exposes the asian low at 80518
Close above the 81185 ny high extends the higher-high chain beyond the late-NY spike
Hold of the 80831 pullback low keeps price mid-range inside the Asian range into London open
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HL chain from 79,405; late-Asia pullback inside the 80,518–81,123 asian range.
Higher lows since the 79,405 London low; buyers stepped in at 79,774 after the firm US data at NY open. Asia pushed to the 81,123 asian high but was rejected below the 81,185 spike high from late NY, and the pullback held the 80,831 swing low near the 50% of the asian leg, with RSI(14) neutral at ~54.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,185 spike high breaks the late-NY cap and extends the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 80,831 swing low exposes the 80,518 asian low and the higher lows trendline
London open in ~3h is likely to test either edge of the asian high / asian low range
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact; lower high capped under 81,185 spike high.
It is late Asia session. BTC is easing from the 81,122 asian high, which capped below the 81,185 spike high set late in NY, and is now sitting between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the 80,518–81,122 Asian leg, just above the 80,775 asia pivot. The higher-low chain from Tuesday's 79,405 London low still holds; that advance gathered pace after the 1.8% US durable goods beat lifted price through 80,000. RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
What it said to watch
Loss of the 80,775 asia pivot exposes the 80,518 asian low; a break there undoes the higher-low chain
M15 close back above the 81,000 psych level and the 81,122 asian high would put the 81,185 spike high back in play
The higher-lows trendline sits near 80,600; the 80,351 ny low marks the base of the NY-to-Asia advance
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC today (presser 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read, with USD at two-week highs into the event
04:18 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back in Asia · RSI 58 · price 80,890.92
Higher-low chain intact; lower high under 81185, mid-Asian-range pullback.
Asia session is fading a rejection at the 81123 Asian high, a lower high under the 81185 spike high. Price sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg near 80890. Higher lows have held since the NY dip to 79774 despite firm US durable goods lifting USD, and RSI(14) at ~58 is neutral.
Support: 80,787.03, 80,518.33
Resistance: 81,122.66, 81,184.59
What it said to watch
Hold of the 80787 minor low keeps the Asian pullback shallow; loss opens the 80518 Asian low and the higher-lows trendline
Break below the 80351 swing low ends the higher-low chain
M15 close above the 81185 spike high clears the lower-high cap
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since the London low, Asian session pressing the spike high.
Higher lows have held since the 79,406 London low. The Asian session lifted from the 80,518 asian low, near the 38.2% retrace of the 79,406–81,185 leg, to an 81,123 asian high, just under the 81,185 spike high left after NY. RSI(14) sits near 64, not stretched, while firm US data and a two-week USD high frame the tone into Fed day.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,185 spike high extends the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 81,000 round number would mark the 81,123 asian high as a rejection
Break of the rising trendline and the 80,518 asian low ends the higher-low sequence
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read via USD and yields
HH/HL chain from 79405, pressing late-NY spike high.
BTC has stepped higher from the 79405 window low through Tuesday's firm US data (durable goods 1.8% vs 0.6%), and the Asian low at 80518 held near the 38.2% fib of that leg. The Asia session is now at 81122, above the 81040 prior high and about $60 below the late-NY spike high at 81184, with RSI(14) near 67 and not stretched.
Support: 80,518.33
What it said to watch
A close above the 81184 spike high extends the higher-high chain
A return below the 81040 prior high puts price back into the overnight range
A break of the 80518 asian low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low sequence
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser later today could materially shift this read
03:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing Asian high · RSI 65 · price 81,011.78
Rising lows off 80518 in Asia session; price at range top under the late-NY wick high.
Late in the Asia session, BTC has built rising lows from the 80518 Asian low and is pressing the 81041 Asian high, RSI(14) near 65 and both EMAs below price. The 81185 NY wick high, a sharp rejection, still caps the move above the 80800 consol base. Firm US data and a two-week USD high into Fed day have not dented the intraday climb so far.
Support: 80,800.00, 80,518.33
Resistance: 81,040.75, 81,184.59
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81041 Asian high puts the 81185 NY wick high back in play
Loss of the 80800 consol base and the rising lows line reopens the 80518 Asian low
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read; a hawkish hold is the digest's base case
Higher low at 80518 vs lower high at 81040, compressing mid-range.
Tuesday's London-NY leg from 79405 ended with a late-NY wick rejection at the 81184 ny high. Asia has since held 80518–81040: the asian low held at the 38.2% fib of that leg and the asian high printed a lower high. Price sits near 80850, just above the 80685 range floor with RSI(14) neutral at 53, after the advance absorbed firm US durables and a two-week USD high into today's FOMC.
Support: 80,685.00, 80,518.33, 80,405.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81040 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 81184 ny high back in play
Break of the 80685 range floor returns price to the 80518 asian low and 38.2% fib
Failure to hold 80518 exposes the 80405 swing low and confirms a lower-low
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read via the USD and yields reaction
Higher-low chain intact; Asian range 80518–81041 below rejected spike high.
BTC climbed from the 79405 London low through NY, printing higher lows at 79774 and 80351 (swing low) despite firm US data and a two-week high in USD. The late-NY spike to 81184 (spike high) was rejected, and Asia is holding a 80518–81041 range, with the asian low sitting on the fib 38.2% retracement of the leg and RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 80,518.33
Resistance: 81,040.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80518 asian low and the higher-lows trendline breaks the intraday higher-low chain, exposing the 80351 swing low
M15 close above the 81041 asian high reopens the 81184 spike high
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC today (presser 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Range 80518–81041 below rejected 81185 spike high, higher lows intact.
The climb from the 79405 London low peaked in a rejected NY spike high at 81185. Price has since ranged between the 80518 Asian low, near the 38.2% retrace, and the 81041 Asian high, mid-range around the 80759 pivot low with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 80,759.00, 80,518.00
Resistance: 81,041.00, 81,185.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 81041 Asian high reopens the 81185 spike high
Loss of the 80759 pivot low puts the 80518 Asian low and rising trendline back in play
Break below 80518 and the 38.2% retrace ends the higher-low sequence
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC, presser 18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the 79,405 London low is intact, and the rising trendline is still holding. Buyers stepped in at the 80,518 Asian low, near the 38.2% fib of the 79,405–81,184 leg. The 81,040 Asian high then rejected the latest push, with the 81,184 prior high wick still capping and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,040 asian high reopens the 81,184 prior high
Break below the 80,759 swing low exposes the 80,518 asian low and rising trendline
Loss of the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact; 80520–80930 range capped by 81185 wick.
The Asia session dipped to the 80518 asia low, near the 38.2% retracement of the 79405–81185 leg, then reversed back to the 80930 range top. The higher-low chain from the breakout above 80000 around the firm Durable Goods print is intact, and the late-NY spike high at 81185 still caps.
Support: 80,518.33
Resistance: 80,929.87, 81,184.59
What it said to watch
M15 close above 80930 range top opens a retest of the 81185 spike high
Failure to hold the 80518 asia low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 80351 swing low
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-spike consolidation 80518–80930 with higher lows intact.
Tuesday's London-NY rally from 79405 stalled when the late-NY spike to 81185 was rejected. Price has since held an 80518–80930 consolidation through a quiet Asia session ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. The Asian session low at 80518 lines up with the rising trendline and the 38.2% level of the rally fib, the session high at 80883 sits just overhead, and RSI(14) is neutral at 54.
Support: 80,518.33
Resistance: 80,882.93, 80,929.87, 81,184.59
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80518 session low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 80351 swing low
Close above the 80930 range top reopens the 81185 spike high
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (hold f/c 4%) and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Uptrend from London low, now ranging · RSI 52 · price 80,810.01
Post-spike range 80690–80930 inside a higher-low sequence.
Rally from the 79405 London low ran through NY despite the firm Durable Goods print, then met rejection at the 81185 spike high late NY, leaving a 80690–80930 range with the range floor and range top both tested since. The Asian dip to the 80518 asia low held near the 38.2% of the rally fib and bounced back to mid-range. RSI(14) at 52 is neutral.
Support: 80,690.00, 80,518.00
Resistance: 80,930.00, 81,185.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 80930 range top reopens the 81185 spike high
Failure to hold the 80518 asia low breaks the rising lows trendline and the rally fib 38.2%
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC with presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Uptrend from 79405, now correcting · RSI 41 · price 80,676.15
Lower highs and lower lows since the 81185 spike high, holding above the asian low.
Late-NY spike to the 81185 spike high was rejected. Price has printed lower highs at 80930 and 80808 into the early Asia session, with the 80518 asian low sitting on the 38.2% retracement of the 79405–81185 leg. RSI(14) near 41 shows momentum cooling as the dollar holds firm ahead of the Fed.
Support: 80,518.00, 80,405.00
Resistance: 80,808.00, 80,930.00, 81,185.00
What it said to watch
Close below the 80518 asian low exposes the 80405 swing low and the 50% retracement near 80295
Recovery above the 80808 asian high and the 80930 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs sequence
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC; a hawkish hold and firm USD could pressure this structure
01:18 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 38 · price 80,624.21
Higher lows from 79405, late spike rejected, Asia printing lower highs.
Higher lows off the 79405 London low carried price into a late-NY spike to the 81184 spike high, which was rejected. The early Asia session has printed lower highs and is retesting the 80518 swing low, near the 38.2% fib. Price sits under the ema20 but above the ema50, RSI(14) is near 38, and firm US data has not yet broken the higher-low chain.
Support: 80,518.00, 80,351.00
Resistance: 80,732.00, 80,930.00, 81,184.00
What it said to watch
Close below the 80518 swing low exposes the 80351 higher low and breaks the intraday higher-low sequence
Reclaim of the 80732 prior high and the lower-highs line puts the 80930 range top back in play
81184 spike high is the rejection point; acceptance above it extends the rally structure
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 81185 rejection, pressing the Asian low.
The late-NY spike to 81185 was rejected, and price has since printed lower highs below the 80977 range high. It is now pressing the Asian low at 80611 with RSI(14) near 46. The 79405–81185 rally is retracing between its 23.6% and 38.2% fib levels as USD holds firm into Fed week.
Support: 80,611.23, 80,532.31
Resistance: 80,732.09, 80,976.82, 81,184.59
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80611 asian low and 80532 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib near 80505, then the 80351 pivot low
Reclaim of the 80732 prior high and the lower-high line reopens the 80977 range high and 81185 spike high
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Post-spike range 80,685–80,930 broken lower in early Asia; lower highs since 81,185.
The rally off the 79,406 London low ran into a late-NY spike to 81,185 that was rejected at once. Price then held an 80,685–80,930 range under lower highs before slipping out of it early in the Asia session to an Asian low at 80,611. Price now sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of that leg, with the spike base at 80,550 just below, while a firm USD into Wednesday's Fed keeps the tape heavy.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80,611 Asian low exposes the spike base at 80,550 and the 38.2% fib near 80,505
A close back above the 80,730 prior high and the lower highs line reopens the 80,930 range top
A break of the 80,350 swing low would confirm a lower-low on this leg
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read, with USD at two-week highs
00:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling into a range · RSI 53 · price 80,684.14
Higher lows from 79405 intact; 80611–80930 range after spike rejection.
The NY rally off the 79405 London low ran into a spike high at 81184 after the NY close and was rejected, despite USD holding two-week highs on firm US data. Early Asia session is ranging between the 80611 asian low and the 80930 range top. Price is back below the 80732 prior high and EMA20, sitting just under the 23.6% fib of the rally, with the higher low chain still holding.
Support: 80,611.23, 80,532.31
Resistance: 80,732.09, 80,929.87
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80611 asian low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 80532 swing low, then the 80351 higher low
Acceptance back above the 80732 prior high reopens the 80930 range top, with the 81184 spike high above
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC, presser 18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; a hawkish hold is the consensus
00:19 UTC
Uptrend off London low, stalling in a range · RSI 52 · price 80,706.12
Higher-low chain from 79405; 80685–80930 range after a rejected spike; prior high on retest.
BTC built higher lows off the 79405 London low and extended through the 12:30 UTC US data despite a firm dollar. The late-NY spike to the 81185 spike high was rejected, leaving an 80685–80930 range. Early Asia has slipped back below the 80730 prior high, with the 80640 swing low now the nearest support.
Support: 80,640.00, 80,550.00, 80,350.00
Resistance: 80,730.00, 80,930.00, 81,185.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 80730 prior high restores the range and puts the 80930 range top back in play
Loss of the 80550 spike base exposes the 80350 pullback low, with the 38.2% rally fib near 80505 in between
Clearance of the 81185 spike high would negate the rejection read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read, with USD holding two-week highs into the event
Higher lows from 79405 London low; tight post-spike range 80685–80930.
BTC rallied off the 79405 London low and cleared the 80270 Asian range high in NY despite firm US data and a bid USD. Higher lows held at the 80351 NY swing low and the 80532 swing low, but the 21:30 UTC spike to 81184 drew a sharp rejection. Price is now compressing in an 80685–80930 range in early Asia trade, sitting on the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 80,685.00, 80,532.00, 80,351.00
Resistance: 80,930.00, 81,184.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80685 range low exposes the 80532 swing low, near the 38.2% fib
Loss of the 80351 NY swing low breaks the higher-low chain from the London low
Close above the 80930 range high puts the 81184 spike high back in play
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC Wed (presser 18:30) is the main event risk; a hawkish-hold tone could shift this read