Lower highs from 84,796; flat-to-rising base 79,170-79,500.
The selloff from the 84,796 high to the 79,174 swing low has given way to a multi-day base. Lows at 79,285, 79,365 and 79,405 sit slightly higher, and the latest pullback held a higher low at 80,299. The last bar closed at its high near 81,653, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of that swing, and is retesting the 81,717 swing high and the descending lower-high line. The Fed's in-line 4% hold left little directional impulse, ATR(14) has compressed from its levels during the drop, and EMA20 is converging on EMA50 from below with price now above both.
What it said to watch
A close above the 81,717 swing high and the lower-high line breaks the descending sequence and opens the 50% fib near 81,985, then the 61.8% fib near 82,650
Rejection at 81,717 followed by a break of the 80,299 higher low returns focus to the 79,405 base floor
A close below the 79,174 swing low invalidates the base read and extends the downtrend
US Core PCE and GDP on Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
BTC has printed lower highs since the 84,797 peak. The decline to the 79,174 swing low has since flattened into a range floor around 79,300-79,400 that held three times. The rebound stalled at 81,717, the bounce high between the 38.2% and fib 50% retracement, and rejection there returned price to 80,500, where it is pinned on EMA20 and still below EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 725 points from 1,000+ during the mid-month swings, and with no crypto-specific news, today's Fed decision is the main catalyst for a range break.
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC: a hawkish tilt against firm US data could pressure the range floor, while a dovish read could test the bounce high
H4 close below the 79,400 range floor and 79,174 swing low confirms a fresh lower low in the downtrend
H4 close above 81,717 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the fib 50% at 81,980 and fib 61.8% at 82,650
Failure to hold the 80,000 round number keeps the range floor in play
Thursday Core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) could confirm or reverse the post-FOMC move
13:07 UTC
Range-bound, short-term rebound off the floor · RSI 61 · price 81,243.53
79,170–84,800 range; marginal higher lows at the base, lower-high line broken.
Three weeks of price are contained in a 79,170–84,800 range. The latest leg fell from the 84,797 swing high to the 79,174 swing low, then formed a base with marginal higher lows at 79,174, 79,284 and 79,405. This week's push broke the lower-high line, reclaimed the ema50 near 81,015 and stalled around the 38.2% level of the fib retracement, just under the 81,717 bounce high. EMA20 (ema20 ~80,590) is still below EMA50, so there is no bullish cross yet. ATR(14) near 700 points is well below the mid-window expansion, with BTC trading as a macro risk asset into today's Fed decision.
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the ema50 at ~81,015 returns price to the 79,400–81,000 base and negates the lower-high line break
Clearing the 81,717 bounce high and the fib 50% at 81,985 extends the retracement toward the fib 61.8% at 82,649
Loss of the ema20 at ~80,590 and then the 79,174 swing low breaks the higher lows and the range floor
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC today; a hawkish hold is the base case and could materially shift this read
Thursday 12:30 UTC Core PCE (f/c 0.3% MoM, 3.1% YoY) can extend or unwind any post-Fed move
09:07 UTC
Corrective downswing off 84.8k, basing and turning up · RSI 62 · price 81,022.77
Lower highs from 84,797 into a 79.2k-81.0k base of rising lows; base top now cleared.
The 84,797 peak gave way to a 5.6k slide to the 79,175 swing low. Four days of tightening consolidation followed, with rising lows under a descending line of lower highs, and the base resolved higher this week. Price has cleared the base top near 80,950, which sits alongside the EMA50 (~80,960), holds above the EMA20 (~80,530) and is now pressing the 38.2% fib at 81,320. The EMA20 is still below the EMA50 but the gap is narrowing, and ATR(14) near 693 points (69,270 pips) is compressed versus the mid-month swing. BTC is trading as a macro risk asset into a Fed decision where a hawkish hold is the base case, with USD firm at two-week highs.
What it said to watch
An H4 close back below the base top at 80,950 and the ema20 at 80,530 would mark the breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 38.2% fib at 81,320 opens the 50% fib at 81,975, then the 61.8% fib near 82,650
Loss of the rising lows line and the 79,175 swing low would resume the lower-low sequence
An EMA20/EMA50 cross higher would confirm the turn from the corrective downswing
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Thursday 12:30 UTC Core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y) adds a second event risk for the base breakout
05:06 UTC
Downtrend from 84,797 high, basing and testing range top · RSI 57 · price 81,041.75
Lower low at 79,174, then 79,175-80,950 range with shallow higher lows.
BTC rolled over from the 84,797 swing high to a lower low at the 79,175 swing low, undercutting the 79,737 prior low. It has since built a week-long 79,175-80,950 range, with shallow higher lows along a rising support line. The latest bar closed just above the 80,950 range top and is reclaiming EMA50 near 81,000, with price above the ema20 at 80,440. EMA20 still sits below EMA50 and ATR(14) has compressed to roughly $737 into a Fed-driven week, with the USD firm at two-week highs.
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 80,950 range top would mark this as a false break and return price to the 79,175-80,950 range
Acceptance above the 81,320 fib 38.2 opens the 81,980 lower highs cluster, where the 50% retracement also sits, with the 82,650 fib 61.8 above
Loss of the ema20 at 80,440 followed by a break of the 79,175 swing low and the rising support line would extend the lower-low sequence
An EMA20 cross above EMA50 would mark the first swing-level shift since the decline from 84,797
FOMC decision today 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30 UTC): a hawkish hold with a firm USD could reverse the breakout attempt; Thu 12:30 UTC Core PCE is follow-through risk
Lower highs since 84,797; rising lows off the 79,174 swing low.
The rejection from 84,797 ran to a 79,174 swing low. Since then price has built a base of rising lows near 79,400 and lifted back above the ema20 to probe the lower-highs line, though EMA20 is still below EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 727 points, and price sits just under the 38.2% fib at 81,320 with the 81,975 lower high above. A hawkish-hold Fed and a firm USD keep two-way risk elevated.
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 81,975 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 61.8% fib at 82,650 in play
A drop back below the ema20 near 80,300 returns price to the base
Failure to hold the rising lows near 79,400, then the 79,174 swing low, confirms a fresh lower low
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thu 12:30 UTC Core PCE (f/c 0.3% MoM) is the follow-through test after the Fed