Lower highs at 79,716, 79,190 and 78,950; spike low 78,249 broken.
A sell-off after the NY close took BTC from 80,360 to a 78,249 spike low, unwinding the whole NY-session rally to 81,893. The bounce stalled at 79,716, the bounce high, and has stepped down through a lower-high chain into a fresh low at 78,084, with RSI(14) near 25. The macro backdrop offers no offset: a GDP beat and sticky 3.1% core PCE keep the USD firm.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 78,249 spike low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 78,000 round number extends the lower-low chain
A close above the 79,190 lower high breaks the sequence; the 38.2% level of the NY high-low fib (~79,540) and the 79,716 bounce high sit above
ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Daly/Musalem (16:00/16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs after a late-NY break below the asian low.
NY's rally after the 12:30 UTC US data topped at 81893 and fully reversed. Solid GDP and sticky core PCE gave BTC no relief, and late NY broke the asian low at 79625 and extended to the 78249 session low. The bounce high at 79716 was rejected, and lower highs since are compressing price toward the 78550 swing low, with RSI(14) near 27.
Support: 78,549.50, 78,248.83
Resistance: 79,191.79, 79,625.31, 79,716.21
What it said to watch
Break of the 78550 swing low exposes the 78249 session low
Close above the 79192 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence
Acceptance back above the asian low at 79625 and the 79716 bounce high negates the breakdown read
ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri and Daly/Musalem later could materially shift this read
Lower highs over a 78,550 base after evening flush.
The spike to 81,893 after the 12:30 UTC US data, read as solid growth with sticky core inflation, fully reversed, and a 20:30 UTC flush printed a 78,249 flush low. After NY close, BTC is coiling between the 78,550 swing low and a lower high at 79,190. The 79,716 bounce high stalled near the 38.2% retrace of the day's range, and RSI(14) sits near 24.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 79,190 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens 79,716 bounce high
Failure to hold the 78,550 swing low exposes the 78,249 flush low
ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC, f/c 0.8%) and Daly/Musalem remarks later Fri could materially shift this read
23:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after flush · RSI 32 · price 78,916.09
Lower highs above a 78,550 double low.
Late NY hours brought a 3,600-point flush from the 81,893 session high to a 78,249 spike low. That fully reversed the post-data rally, with no crypto-specific trigger and USD firm after sticky core PCE. The bounce high at 79,716 stalled near the 38.2% fib. Since then price has compressed under a line of lower highs into the Asia open, holding a double low at 78,550, with the old Asia low at 79,625 now overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 79,192 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 79,625 asia low back in play
Failure to hold the 78,550 double low exposes the 78,249 spike low
Reclaim of the 79,716 bounce high would neutralise the post-flush downtrend read
ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
Range break lower, lower highs above a 78,550 retest low.
A late-NY selloff at 20:30 UTC broke the 79,625 overnight low and the London range, flushing to a 78,249 swing low. The rebound stalled at the 79,716 bounce high near the 38.2% retracement of the 81,893–78,249 drop. Since then price has formed a lower high at 79,192 while the 78,550 retest low holds; the macro digest offers no dovish relief after solid GDP and sticky core PCE.
What it said to watch
Break below the 78,550 retest low reopens the 78,249 swing low
Close above the 79,190 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline; the 79,716 bounce high caps above that
Reclaim of the 80k psych area near 80,055 negates the range break
ECI (12:30 UTC Fri) and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 79190, base forming 78250–78550.
A late-NY selloff took BTC from the 81,892 session high through the Asian low at 79,625 to a 78,249 NY low. There was no crypto-specific driver; the move came alongside a firm USD after the GDP beat and sticky core PCE. Price is now compressing under a lower high at 79,190, with twin lows near 78,550 holding and RSI(14) near 25.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 79,190 lower high, then the 79,716 bounce high (near the 38.2% fib), would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 78,550 twin lows reopens the 78,249 NY low
ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Daly/Musalem (16:00/16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian low broken; bounce capped at 38.2% fib, lower highs since.
The post-data NY rally topped at 81893 at 16:00 UTC. Price then broke down from 80055 at 20:00 UTC, cut through the 79625 Asian low and printed a 78249 swing low, with hot GDP and sticky core PCE offering no dovish relief. The bounce stalled at the 79716 lower high, near the 38.2% fib, and lower highs since have pressed price back onto the 78549 twin lows late in the session.
Support: 78,549.00, 78,249.00
Resistance: 79,230.00, 79,716.00, 80,055.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 78549 twin lows exposes the 78249 swing low
M15 close above the 79230 minor high breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 79716 lower high and 79625 Asian low negates the breakdown read; 80055 is the breakdown origin
ECI Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Daly/Musalem at 16:00/16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:05 UTC
Downtrend after late-NY liquidation leg · RSI 27 · price 78,961.04
Evening range broken lower, bounce capped at broken Asian low.
BTC broke below its 80,520–80,880 evening range from 20:00 UTC and flushed to a 78,249 spike low. The digest shows no crypto-specific catalyst; USD is firm after the Q3 GDP beat. The rebound stalled at the 79,716 bounce high, roughly a 56% retracement that retested the broken Asian low at 79,625, and price has since faded back toward the 78,864 post-NY low with RSI(14) near 27.
What it said to watch
A break of the 78,249 spike low confirms a lower-low after the failed bounce
An M15 close above the 79,716 bounce high and the Asian low at 79,625 negates the retest-rejection read
A reclaim of the 80,054 break point puts price back inside the old evening range
ECI Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) is the next scheduled macro risk; none is due in the next 8h
21:47 UTC
Downtrend after late-NY breakdown · RSI 31 · price 79,108.88
Lower high at 79,716 below broken Asian low; higher low at 78,549 off the sweep.
The NY rally after the mixed 12:30 UTC US data topped at 81,893 and fully reversed. A late-NY slide broke the Asian low at 79,625 and swept to a day low of 78,249. The rebound stalled at the 79,716 bounce high near the 38.2% fib, and price is back at the 79,000 round number with RSI(14) near 31.
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the asian low at 79,625 and the 79,716 bounce high would neutralise the lower-high read
A close back above the 80,055 breakdown level invalidates the range break
Failure at the 79,000 round number exposes the 78,549 higher low and the 78,249 day low
ECI 12:30 UTC Fri plus Daly/Musalem at 16:00/16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:33 UTC
Downtrend after late-NY flush, early bounce · RSI 33 · price 79,137.85
Lower highs from 81893; break below Asian low, 78249 spike low.
Late-NY liquidation broke the 80700–80880 shelf at the 80055 breakdown bar, then cut through the Asian low at 79625 to a 78249 spike low, erasing the NY rally to 81893 that followed the mixed US GDP/PCE data. A higher low at 78549 and a bounce high at 79324 now frame the post-flush range, with price near the 23.6% fib and RSI(14) recovering to the low 30s.
Support: 78,548.50, 78,248.83
Resistance: 79,323.64, 79,625.31, 80,054.84
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 79625 asian low (38.2% fib) would neutralise the breakdown read
Repeated rejection at the 79324 bounce high keeps price boxed above the 78549 higher low
Failure to hold the 78249 spike low confirms a fresh lower-low
Return above the 80055 breakdown level (50% fib) would cancel the downtrend read
ECI Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Daly/Musalem at 16:00/16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Session high rejected at 81,892, range break lower, fresh lower low at 78,249.
After rejection at the 81,892 NY session high, price broke the 80,520–80,880 range at 20:00 UTC, cut through the Asia low at 79,625 and flushed to a 78,249 swing low. The bounce after NY close is stalling near the 23.6% fib around 79,110, with no crypto-specific driver and no dovish relief from the mixed US data set (GDP beat, core PCE in line).
What it said to watch
A close back above the Asia low at 79,625 (38.2% fib) reclaims the broken level and weakens the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 78,549 higher low exposes the 78,249 swing low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
The 80,055 breakdown level (50% fib) is the ceiling for any extended rebound
Fri ECI (12:30 UTC) and Daly/Musalem remarks are the next macro catalysts that could reset this read
Lower highs since NY high; Asian low broken, fresh 24h low.
The NY-session spike to the 81892 ny high after the US GDP beat fully reversed after London close. A late-NY bar of about 1,640 broke the 79625 asian low and printed a 24h low at 78632, with the macro backdrop of a firm USD and sticky core PCE offering BTC no relief. RSI(14) near 19 is deeply oversold, price sits well below both EMAs, and lower highs have held since the ny high.
Support: 78,632.40, 78,000.00
Resistance: 79,625.31, 80,054.84
What it said to watch
A close back above the 79625 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 78632 24h low exposes the 78000 round number
Reclaiming the 80055 swing low and the lower-highs trendline would negate the post-NY drop structure
Retracement of the drop from 81892: 38.2% near 79880 sits just above the asian low
ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Fed's Daly and Musalem could materially shift this read
20:32 UTC
Downtrend after failed NY rally · RSI 33 · price 80,353.51
Lower highs from 81892 NY high; 80700–80880 shelf broken.
The NY session rally after the mixed 12:30 UTC US data dump topped at the 81892.81 ny high and has since printed lower highs. The 19:45 UTC drop cut through the 80700–80880 shelf to a 80054.84 ny low. Price now sits near 80350, between the fib 61.8 (80617) and the 78.6% retracement of the move from the 79829 data low, with RSI near 33.
Support: 80,054.84, 79,829.09
Resistance: 80,617.00, 80,880.00, 81,892.81
What it said to watch
Close below the 80054.84 ny low exposes the 79829 data low that launched the NY rally
Reclaim of the fib 61.8 near 80617 and the 80880 shelf top would break the lower-highs sequence
ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Daly/Musalem Fed remarks later Friday could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend after NY spike faded · RSI 29 · price 80,305.56
Lower highs since NY high; sweep low printed near 80k.
The NY afternoon rally to the 81,892 ny high has almost fully reversed through a lower high chain. Late in the NY session the 20:00 UTC bar broke the 80,880 range top's floor and swept to 80,055, just above the 80,000 psych level, before wicking back. Price sits near the 78.6% level of the NY rally fib with RSI(14) near 29, and the post-GDP / sticky core PCE macro read offers BTC no tailwind.
What it said to watch
A close below the 80,055 sweep low and the 80,000 psych level opens the london low at 79,752
Recovery through the 80,880 range top breaks the lower high sequence; 81,109 lower high sits above
ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
The NY open lifted BTC out of the London range and through the Asian high near 81293 to an 81893 session high, after a muted reaction to the 12:30 UTC GDP/PCE data. The leg has since retraced to the 61.8% fib. The 80519 swing low is holding, and price is compressing beneath an 80880 range cap late in NY hours with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 80,519.33, 80,000.00
Resistance: 80,880.00, 81,105.00, 81,892.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80880 range cap opens the path to the 38.2% fib near 81105
Failure to hold the 80519 swing low exposes the 80000 round number
US ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Fed's Daly/Musalem (from 16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 81,893 session high; compressing 80,520–80,880.
Price spent the Asian and London sessions in a 79,625–80,440 range. During NY hours, after the mixed US data dump (GDP beat, core PCE in line), it broke out to an 81,893 session high. That NY rally has since retraced into its 50–61.8% fib zone, with the 80,519 swing low holding. Price is now compressing under an 80,880 range top below EMA20, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,880 range top and the 81,108 lower high would break the lower-high chain from the session high
Failure to hold the 80,519 swing low (below the 61.8% fib) exposes the 80,427 pre-spike high and the 80,000 round number
Price sits only marginally above EMA50; a loss of it alongside the swing low would erase most of the NY breakout
Employment Cost Index (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Daly/Musalem remarks are the next macro catalysts for a range break
19:33 UTC
Pullback after NY rally, momentum neutral · RSI 51 · price 80,823.99
Lower highs from 81893 session high; 80519 swing low holding so far.
In the first hour of NY, price ran from 79829 to an 81893 session high, but met rejection and has since printed a chain of lower highs. That pullback found a swing low at 80519, just past the 61.8% retrace of the NY rally, and price is now pressing the 80870–80880 bounce high late in the NY session. US data was mixed (GDP beat, core PCE in line) with no clear BTC driver.
Support: 80,519.33, 80,000.00
Resistance: 81,892.81
What it said to watch
Close above the 81108 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 81893 session high
Failure at the 80519 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 80000 psych level
Rejection again at the 80880 bounce high keeps the NY rally fib retrace in play
Fri 12:30 UTC Employment Cost Index (f/c 0.8%) and Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the 81,893 NY high, holding near the 61.8% retrace.
BTC ran from the 79,829 12:30 UTC dip to an NY high of 81,893 after the US data dump. The digest reads the data as solid growth with sticky core inflation and no relief for BTC. Price has since faded on a string of lower highs to an 80,519 session low just under the 61.8% fib, and now sits between EMA50 (~80,680) and EMA20 (~80,845) with RSI(14) flat at 50 late in the NY session.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,883 lower high breaks the late-NY lower-high sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib at 81,104
Failure to hold the 80,519 session low takes out the 61.8% fib and brings the 80,000 round number into play
Fri ECI (12:30 UTC) and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
18:48 UTC
Intraday pullback after NY rally, lower highs · RSI 33 · price 80,639.19
Descending lower highs from 81893, testing 61.8% retracement.
After the 12:30 UTC US data (GDP beat, sticky core PCE), the NY session ran from the 79829 data low to an 81893 session high. That move edged past the overnight 81703 peak, then was rejected. Since then a chain of lower highs, the latest at 80883, has pulled price back to the 61.8% retracement near 80617, sitting on the EMA50 with the 80519 swing low just beneath and the fib 38.2 at 81104 overhead.
Support: 80,519.00, 80,400.00, 79,829.00
Resistance: 80,883.00, 81,104.00, 81,893.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 80519 swing low extends the lower-high sequence and puts the 80400 breakout lvl, the pre-surge top, back in play
A close back above the 80883 lower high breaks the descending trendline read
RSI(14) near 33 with no reading under 20 yet; no oversold extreme in place
Friday's ECI (12:30 UTC) and the Daly/Musalem remarks are the next macro inputs that could reprice this range
Lower highs from 81893 session high, testing 61.8% retrace.
BTC rallied in NY hours, after the mixed US data dump, from the 79829 NY low to an 81893 session high. The move was a false break above yesterday's 81703 high and has since unwound on a lower-high sequence to the 61.8% retrace and the 80612 swing low. RSI(14) is near 34 and price sits below EMA20, just above EMA50 near 80600.
Support: 80,612.22, 80,427.43, 79,829.09
Resistance: 81,108.68, 81,892.81
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80612 swing low exposes the 80427 breakout lvl and the 78.6% retrace near 80270, with the ny low at 79829 below
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline near 80880, then the 81109 lower high, would neutralise the fade; the session high at 81893 caps above
ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC, f/c 0.8%) and Fed's Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read
18:19 UTC
Intraday uptrend, deep pullback · RSI 49 · price 80,773.05
Lower highs from 81893 into the 61.8% fib.
The NY rally from the 79829 ny open low broke the 80430 range top and ran to an 81893 session high. Since then a chain of lower highs has pulled price back to the 61.8% retracement of the NY rally, where the 80612 swing low has held so far. Price is now basing just under the ema20 after London close, and the mixed US data gave BTC no fresh driver.
Support: 80,612.00, 80,430.00, 79,829.00
Resistance: 81,108.00, 81,893.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80612 swing low at the 61.8% fib exposes the 80430 range top
Loss of the 80430 range top puts the 79829 ny open low back in view
A close above the 81108 lower high (38.2% fib) breaks the pullback sequence and reopens the 81893 session high
Fri ECI 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
The NY session breakout from the 79,750–80,430 day range spiked to 81,433, then ran to a session high at 81,893 before rejection and a chain of lower highs. The mixed US data offered no dovish relief. The pullback tagged the 61.8% fib at the 80,612 swing low, and price sits just above it, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 43.
What it said to watch
A failure to hold the 80,612 swing low exposes the prior range top at 80,427 and the 80,000 round number
A close above the 81,108 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; above that, the spike high at 81,433 and session high at 81,893 are next
ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Fed's Daly/Musalem could shift the macro read for BTC
17:48 UTC
NY breakout rally now in a sharp pullback · RSI 50 · price 80,844.97
Lower highs from the 81,893 session high, price at the 50% retracement.
BTC broke out of the London range at the 14:30 UTC NY open, after the mixed 12:30 UTC US data. It ran to an 81,893 session high above yesterday's 81,703 peak, then met rejection. Since then a string of lower highs has dragged price back to the 50% fib of the NY rally near 80,860, below the ema20, with RSI(14) back at 50.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 81,108 lower high (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence from the session high
Failure to hold the 80,785 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib at 80,617 and the 80,430 London range top
Fri ECI (12:30 UTC) and Fed's Daly/Musalem could materially shift this read
17:33 UTC
NY breakout leg, now retracing · RSI 56 · price 81,002.79
The 12:30 UTC US data dump was followed by a dip to 79,829, then a NY-session breakout from the 79,750–80,300 London range at the 80,430 breakout pt. The run reached the 81,893 session high, above yesterday's 81,703 prior high, before rejection. The pullback has retraced to the 50% fib, where the 80,876 pullback low is holding just above EMA20, with RSI(14) cooled to ~56.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80,876 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib near 80,620 and the 80,430 breakout pt
A close back above the 38.2% fib at 81,105 brings the 81,703 prior high and 81,893 session high back into view
Next macro risk is Friday's ECI at 12:30 UTC and the Daly/Musalem remarks; little is scheduled in the next few hours
17:18 UTC
NY rally leg retracing, momentum neutral · RSI 52 · price 80,908.90
Lower highs off the session high, testing the 50% retrace of the NY leg.
NY session broke the 80,430 breakout lvl at 14:30 UTC after the mixed US data dump and ran to an 81,893 session high, briefly clearing yesterday's 81,703 prior high before the move failed. Price has since given back half the 79,829 ny low to high leg, sitting on the 50% retrace near 80,860 below a falling tl of lower highs, with RSI(14) cooled to 52 and price pinned at EMA20.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80,740 retest low exposes the 80,430 breakout lvl and a deeper unwind of the NY leg toward the 79,829 ny low
A close back above the falling tl and the 38.2% fib at 81,105 reopens the 81,703 prior high and the 81,893 session high
After London close, liquidity thins; ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Fed's Daly/Musalem are the next scheduled catalysts that could shift this read
17:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 59 · price 81,193.58
NY breakout above London range; sweep of prior high, then lower highs.
NY hours broke the London range top near 80430 and spiked through the 81703 prior high to an 81893 session high, but no M15 close held above 81703. The pullback is now sitting on the 81117 pullback low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the NY leg, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 59. The mixed 12:30 UTC US data dump gave no fresh driver.
Support: 81,116.67, 80,955.00, 80,738.09
Resistance: 81,703.02, 81,892.81
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81703 prior high would turn the false break into acceptance and put the 81893 session high back in play
Loss of the 81117 pullback low / 38.2% fib exposes the ema20 near 80955 and the 80738 spike low
Fri 12:30 UTC Employment Cost Index (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
16:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend from NY open, pulling back · RSI 64 · price 81,325.44
NY breakout above overnight range, higher lows since 13:30 UTC.
The mixed 12:30 UTC US data barely moved price. At NY open, price dipped to 79829, then reversed and cleared the 80438 overnight range top, running to an 81893 session high above last night's post-Fed prior high at 81703. Since London close it has slipped back under 81703 to a pullback low at 81138, near the 38.2% of the NY leg, with RSI(14) cooling to about 64.
Support: 81,137.65, 80,738.09, 80,438.42
Resistance: 81,703.02, 81,892.81
What it said to watch
A close below the 81138 pullback low exposes the 80738 breakout low and the NY leg 50% retracement near 80860
Reclaim of the 81703 prior high puts the 81893 session high back in play
Loss of the 80438 range top would negate the NY breakout and return price to the overnight range
16:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 64 · price 81,351.41
NY break above London range, HH/HL chain off 79,829, first pullback after failing to hold above prior high.
Reaction to the 12:30 UTC US data was muted. The NY session then broke out of the London range from 80,430 and ran to an 81,893 session high, piercing the 81,703 prior high without a close above it. A 16:15 UTC rejection has cooled RSI(14) from about 75 to 64, with price sitting just above the 81,316 pullback low.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,893 session high extends the NY breakout and puts the 82,000 round number in play
Failure to hold the 81,316 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib near 81,105, which lines up with the breakout bar
Loss of the 80,738 higher low would unwind most of the NY leg and undercut the HH/HL read
Next scheduled macro risk is Friday's ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%). A miss in either direction could reset this intraday structure
16:18 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 72 · price 81,585.15
NY breakout above Asian range high and prior high, HH/HL chain since 79,829.
BTC spent Asia and London capped below 80,450 after the overnight drop to 79,625. The 12:30 UTC US data dump barely moved price. During NY hours it ran from the 79,829 low through the Asian range high and yesterday's 81,703 prior high to an 81,893 session high, with RSI(14) near 72. Price is now slipping back under the prior high, which puts the breakout level under test.
What it said to watch
Hold of the 81,334 swing low keeps the NY higher-low chain and trendline intact
M15 close below 81,105 (38.2% fib of the NY leg) unwinds most of the breakout
Acceptance above the 81,893 session high opens the 82,000 round number
No scheduled US risk in the next 8h; ECI and Fed's Daly/Musalem on Friday are the next macro catalysts
The NY session broke the London range top near 80430 with a $1,100 bar at 14:30 UTC. That unwound the Asian sell-off to 79625 and pushed price through yesterday's post-Fed prior high at 81703, despite a firm USD after the mixed 12:30 UTC data. Higher lows at 80738 and 81334 are intact. RSI(14) at 76 is hot but not extreme, and the 81824 session high is capping so far.
Support: 81,703.02, 81,334.43, 81,062.00
Resistance: 81,823.89, 82,000.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 81703 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 81334 higher low breaks the NY HH/HL chain, with the fib 38.2 at 81062 next
Acceptance above the 81824 session high opens the 82000 round number
Fri ECI (12:30 UTC) and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
15:47 UTC
Uptrend, NY breakout testing prior high · RSI 75 · price 81,671.06
HH/HL chain off the 79,829 sweep low; London range and Asian high reclaimed.
Mixed US data at 12:30 UTC drew little reaction. A 13:30 UTC sweep to 79,829 then gave way to a 14:30 UTC breakout of the London range. Price reclaimed the 81,293 Asian high and is now pressing the 81,703 prior high. Dips held at the 80,738 swing low and the 81,334 pullback low, and RSI(14) near 75 is hot but not extreme, with no crypto-specific driver behind the move.
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 81,703 prior high would set up a double-top test of the NY rally
An M15 close above 81,703 opens the path to the 82,000 round number
Failure to hold the 81,334 pullback low and the 81,293 Asian high would break the HL chain and put the NY trendline in play
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; ECI Fri 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem later Friday are the next macro catalysts
15:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend after range break, momentum cooling · RSI 71 · price 81,376.38
London range broken higher in NY, new session high at 81536.
The overnight Asia session sold off to 79625, then London held a range of roughly 79750–80430. The NY session broke the range top with an 1100-dollar bar at 14:30 UTC, two hours after a mixed US data dump drew little reaction. Price has stalled just under the 81536 session high, holding above the 81111 break low, with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 80,427.43
Resistance: 81,536.21, 81,703.02
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 81111 break low would stall the breakout leg; a return under the 80427 range top would mark a false break
Close above the 81536 session high opens the 81703 prior high from the post-Fed rally
Friday's ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Fed speakers Daly/Musalem could materially shift this read
15:18 UTC
Uptrend, extended into resistance · RSI 75 · price 81,459.29
NY breakout above London range, higher-high/higher-low chain from 79829.
The 12:30 UTC US data (GDP beat, in-line core PCE) drew little initial reaction. The NY open then lifted price from the 79829 NY low through the London range top near 80430, led by a ~1,000-dollar bar at 14:30 UTC. Price is now pressing the 81536 session high just under yesterday's 81703 prior high, with RSI(14) near 75. The 80738 pullback low has held as the first higher low.
Support: 80,738.00, 80,430.00, 79,829.00
Resistance: 81,536.00, 81,703.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81703 prior high clears yesterday's peak and extends the breakout
Rejection at the 81536 session high with a close back below 80738 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 80430 range top turns the breakout into a false break and puts the 79829 NY low back in view
ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled macro risk; no events are on the calendar for the next 8h
A 14:30 UTC NY-session spike lifted BTC from the 80,427 spike base to a session high at 81,433. That broke the London range after a muted initial reaction to the mixed 12:30 UTC US data dump. The pullback held 80,738 near the 38.2% level of the NY spike fib. Price is back at 81,223 with RSI(14) near 73.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,433 session high opens the 81,703 prior high
Loss of the 80,738 pullback low puts the 80,427 spike base back in play
Break below the 79,829 NY low would undo the reversal read
ECI 12:30 UTC Fri and Daly/Musalem later Fri are the next macro catalysts
14:47 UTC
Sharp bullish thrust out of a 24h base · RSI 74 · price 81,180.60
Range break from the 79,750–80,430 London range, holding near 81,000.
BTC cleared the 79,750–80,430 London range in a single NY-hours candle. The breakout leg ran from the 79,829 NY low to a 81,433 spike high before fading toward the 81,000 round number, a shelf that gave way in early Asia. RSI(14) sits near 74, and the macro digest offers no crypto-specific driver after the mixed US data dump.
What it said to watch
Holding the 81,000 round number keeps the breakout leg intact. A slip back below the 80,427 breakout pt would mark a false break.
An M15 close above the 81,433 spike high opens the path to the 81,703 prior high from the Oct 28 evening.
Losing the 79,829 ny low would put price back at the London range floor.
Friday's ECI (12:30 UTC) and the Daly/Musalem Fedspeak could materially shift this read.
London range broken higher after post-data false break.
BTC slid from 81,290 to 79,625 during Asia, then held a 79,750–80,300 London range. Its low sat at 79,829, the post-data lo, a false break after the mixed 12:30 UTC US data, where a GDP beat met in-line core PCE. In the first hour of NY the market reclaimed the range, cleared the london high and is now pressing the 80,438 swing high, close to the 50% retracement of the overnight drop. A higher lows sequence is intact, and RSI(14) sits at 58.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,438 swing high opens the fib 61.8 at 80,656; the 81,000 round number sits above
Slip back below the london high at 80,295 puts the breakout in doubt; the 80,172 ny pivot is the next intraday reference
Loss of the 79,829 post-data lo breaks the higher lows trendline and restores the overnight downtrend read
ECB decision and Lagarde today could shift USD direction, a channel BTC is tracking absent crypto-specific news
Higher low at 79829 vs 79752; London range top cleared.
After the mixed 12:30 UTC US data (GDP beat, core PCE in line), the NY open briefly broke below the London range low to 79829, a higher low versus 79752. Price then reversed through the london high at 80295 to an 80392 ny high and is now just under the 80438 swing high. RSI(14) is mid-50s and ATR is elevated at around $175 per bar.
Support: 80,000.00, 79,829.09
Resistance: 80,392.47, 80,438.42
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london high at 80295 turns the breakout into a false break back inside the 79930–80295 range
M15 close above the 80438 swing high clears the post-breakdown bounce high from the Asia session
Loss of the 80000 round number reopens the ny low at 79829 and the higher-low trendline
ECB/Lagarde today and Fri ECI (12:30 UTC) plus Daly/Musalem could shift USD and risk tone
79,750–80,440 range with higher lows; first-hour NY reversal pressing the session high.
BTC slid from the post-FOMC 81,703 high to an Asian low at 79,625 overnight. It has since held a 79,750–80,440 range with a rising lows line. In the first hour of NY, sellers pushed to a 79,829 NY low that was rejected, and price reversed to a new 80,327 session high after the mixed US GDP/PCE data. RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 80,440 range top would also clear the 38.2% fib of the overnight drop and open the 50% retracement near 80,660.
A failure at the 80,327 session high keeps the range intact; losing the 79,829 NY low and the rising lows line exposes the 79,752 swing low and the 79,625 Asian low.
The ECB decision and Lagarde today could shift USD and risk tone through the NY session.
13:48 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 79,886.02
London range 79752–80295 with compressing lower highs; NY opened at range lows.
The Asia session sell-off ran from 81240 to the 79625 asian low. London then held a 79752–80295 range, capped by lower highs from 80438. After the mixed US data dump (GDP beat, sticky core PCE), the first NY bar was rejected at the 80211 ny high and fell back below the 80000 round number to an 79829 ny low, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 79,829.09, 79,752.17, 79,625.31
Resistance: 80,000.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 79752 swing low breaks the London range floor and exposes the 79625 asian low
An M15 close back above the 80000 round number and the lower-highs line near 80220 (just above the 80211 ny high) breaks the descending sequence
A close above the 80295 london high invalidates the lower-highs read
ECB decision and Lagarde today are a USD cross-current that could jolt the NY session range
13:33 UTC
Range after Asia selloff, lows rising · RSI 56 · price 80,171.71
79,752–80,296 London range, higher lows since 07:45 UTC.
Asia selling erased the post-FOMC run to 81,703 and printed the 24h low at 79,625. Since then London has held a range from the 79,752 swing low to the 80,296 london high, with rising lows along the way. The mixed 12:30 UTC US data swung price both ways off the 79,932 data low, and at NY open price is pressing the 61.8% retrace near 80,176 of the 80,438–79,752 leg.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,296 london high breaks the range and exposes the 80,438 swing high
Loss of the 79,932 data low and the rising-lows line puts the 79,752 swing low and the 24h low back in play
ECB decision and Lagarde today could shift USD and risk mood during NY hours
13:17 UTC
Sideways after overnight drop, range contracting · RSI 47 · price 80,052.84
Lower highs and higher lows since the 79625 Asia low; compression near 80050.
Since the 79625 Asia low the session has compressed. The rebound high at 80438 and the London high at 80296 sit above the London low at 79752 and the data low at 79932. The 12:30 UTC US data (GDP beat, core PCE in line) printed a two-sided bar between the 80174 data high and the data low with no follow-through, leaving price mid-range near 80050 with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 79,931.97, 79,752.17, 79,625.31
Resistance: 80,173.71, 80,295.57, 80,438.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80174 data high breaks the descending trendline and exposes the 80296 London high
Failure to hold the 79932 data low breaks the rising trendline and opens the 79752 London low, then the 79625 Asia low
Clearance of the 80438 rebound high would end the lower-high sequence from the overnight drop
USD and yield reaction through NY hours to the firm GDP and claims prints could shift this read; ECI Fri 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk
13:07 UTC
Post-FOMC selloff, now compressing near 80000 · RSI 45 · price 80,010.89
Contracting triangle: lower highs from 80438, higher lows from 79752.
The post-FOMC spike to 81703 fully reversed in Asia to the 79625 asia low. The 06:15 UTC swing high at 80438 stalled near the 38.2% retrace of that drop, and London has since coiled into a triangle between the 79752 london low and the 80296 london high. The 12:30 UTC PCE/GDP release printed a two-way $240 bar (data high 80174, data low 79932) with no follow-through, leaving price pinned near 80000 below EMA20/50 into the NY open.
Support: 79,932.00, 79,752.00, 79,625.00
Resistance: 80,174.00, 80,296.00, 80,438.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79932 data low breaks the triangle base and exposes the 79752 london low, then the 79625 asia low
Close above the 80174 data high and the triangle top reopens the 80296 london high; 80438 swing high caps the broader bounce
PCE/GDP actuals still filtering through; a core PCE MoM away from 0.3% could force a break of the triangle during NY hours
US equity open at 13:30 UTC is the next volatility window for this risk-tracking tape
The post-FOMC spike to 81703 fully unwound in Asia, and the sell-off bottomed at the 79625 asia low. Since then, lower highs and higher lows have coiled price into a pennant around 80000. The 12:30 UTC GDP/PCE bar spanned about 240 points but held above the 79932 data low; RSI(14) sits neutral near 50, with price just under both EMAs.
Support: 79,931.97, 79,752.17, 79,625.31
Resistance: 80,295.57, 80,438.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80296 london high breaks the lower-highs line; the 80438 swing high, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia sell-off, is the next cap
Failure to hold the 79932 data low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 79752 swing low, then the asia low
PCE/GDP actuals are still pending in the feed; a core PCE MoM print away from the 0.3% forecast into the NY open could resolve the pennant
12:33 UTC
Range after overnight selloff, compressing · RSI 48 · price 80,081.81
Rising lows vs falling highs, coiling 79,970–80,300.
After the Asia session slide from 81,290 to the asia low at 79,625, BTC has coiled through London and early NY between the pre-data low at 79,973 and the session high at 80,296. Rising lows off 79,784 meet falling highs from the 80,438 swing high. Price sits on ema20 with RSI(14) neutral at 48 as the 12:30 UTC PCE/GDP bar opens.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the pre-data low at 79,973 breaks the rising lows and exposes the london low at 79,752, then the asia low at 79,625
M15 close above the session high at 80,296 and the swing high at 80,438 voids the falling highs and the lower-high sequence
12:30 UTC core PCE (MoM f/c 0.3%) and GDP (f/c 3.2%) could resolve the compression; a hot core print feeds through yields and the USD
ATR near $124 per bar is a pre-data reading and is likely to expand on the release
Compression inside Asian range 79,625–80,438; lower highs since 05:15 UTC.
The post-Fed spike to 81,703 was fully unwound in the Asia session, bottoming at the 79,625 asian low. Since then, price has stayed inside the Asian range. The bounce stalled at the 80,438 asian high, near the 38.2% retrace of the post-Fed drop, and London capped at 80,296 with lower highs. Price is sitting on the 80,000 round number into the 12:30 UTC PCE/GDP release, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and price just under both EMAs.
What it said to watch
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC prints within the next bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 80,000 round number and the 79,752 swing low exposes the 79,625 asian low
M15 close above the 80,296 london high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 80,438 asian high back into view
12:07 UTC
Range-bound after post-Fed reversal · RSI 50 · price 80,100.79
Lower highs and higher lows compressing into a tight London range.
The post-Fed spike to 81,703 fully reversed during Asia and bottomed at the asia low of 79,625. The rebound met rejection at the 80,438 lower high, near the 38.2% fib of that drop. Since then the London high at 80,296 and a higher low at 79,752 have squeezed price into a ~270-dollar band between the lower-high line and the higher-low line ahead of the 12:30 UTC PCE/GDP data. RSI(14) is flat near 50, with price sitting between EMA20 (~80,060) and EMA50 (~80,200).
What it said to watch
Core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC is likely to resolve the compression; per the macro read, a hot core print carries more downside risk than an in-line print carries upside
M15 close above the london high at 80,296 and the lower-high line opens the 80,438 lower high / 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the london low at 80,030 exposes the higher low at 79,752 and the higher-low line, then the asia low at 79,625
11:47 UTC
Flat after Asia sell-off, mild London recovery · RSI 56 · price 80,126.76
London higher lows coiling inside the 79,625–80,438 post-Asia range.
The post-Fed peak at 81,703 gave way to an Asia-session slide to the 79,625 asia low. The bounce stalled at the 80,438 swing high, near the 38.2% retrace of the post-Fed drop. London has built higher lows from the 79,752 london low into a tight 80,040–80,296 coil, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 ahead of the 12:30 UTC PCE/GDP cluster.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 80,296 session high opens a test of the 80,438 swing high and the 38.2% post-Fed drop fib
A break of the 80,040 higher low ends the London higher-lows sequence and exposes the 79,752 london low, then the 79,625 asia low
The 12:30 UTC core PCE (f/c 0.3% MoM, 3.1% YoY) and GDP (f/c 3.2%) cluster is likely to resolve the coil; a hot core print adds downside pressure via yields and USD
11:33 UTC
Down from post-Fed high, basing in London · RSI 54 · price 80,082.81
London range 79752–80295 with lower highs from 80438; mid-range into data.
The post-Fed spike to 81703 faded through Asia to an asia low of 79625. London has since built a range off the 79752 london base. Rejection at the 80295 session high leaves price at the 38.2% fib, with the 50% level near the 80020 higher low, about an hour before the US PCE/GDP data.
Support: 80,020.00, 79,752.00, 79,625.00
Resistance: 80,295.00, 80,438.00
What it said to watch
Core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (~1h) could break the London range either way
M15 close below the 80020 higher low (50% fib) exposes the 79752 london base and the 79625 asia low
Close above the 80295 session high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 80438 asia bounce high
London higher lows inside the Asian range 79625–80438.
The post-Fed spike to 81703 fully unwound overnight, bottoming at the 79625 session low during Asia. London has printed higher lows from the 79784 London low to the 80027 higher low. Price is capped below the 80296 London high and the 80438 Asian high, which sits near the 38.2% of the post-Fed drop, as BTC compresses near 80170 into late London ahead of the 12:30 UTC PCE/GDP block.
Support: 80,027.00, 79,784.00, 79,625.00
Resistance: 80,296.00, 80,438.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80438 Asian high (38.2% of the post-Fed drop) breaks the Asian range to the upside
Rejection at the 80296 London high keeps price boxed below the Asian high
A break of the 80027 higher low, then the 79784 London low, puts the 79625 session low back in play and ends the London higher-lows sequence
Core PCE / GDP / jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~73 min) could materially shift this read; expect ATR near $155 to expand on the release
Higher lows from 79,625 Asia low; capped below 80,438 bounce high.
The post-FOMC spike to 81,703 fully unwound in the Asia session, with an Asia low at 79,625 as the dollar firmed. London has since printed a higher low at 80,027 above the 79,752 swing low, and a London high at 80,296. Price is stalled near the 61.8% retrace of the 80,438 bounce high to 79,752 leg and sits just under EMA50.
What it said to watch
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~1.5h) could materially shift this read via the USD and yields
An M15 close above the 80,296 London high opens a test of the 80,438 bounce high; above that, the 80,817 breakdown level is next
Losing the 80,027 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and turns focus to the 79,752 swing low and 79,625 Asia low
10:48 UTC
Post-FOMC downtrend, London recovery in progress · RSI 63 · price 80,199.68
Higher lows through London, price pressing the London high.
The post-FOMC spike to 81703 fully unwound in the Asia session, with an 1,670-point slide to the Asian low at 79625 as USD firmed after the hawkish hold. London has printed higher lows from the London low at 79762 to 80027. Price is now pressing the 80249 London high, below the 38.2% fib of the post-FOMC drop near 80420 that capped the Asian bounce.
Support: 80,026.87, 79,762.16, 79,625.31
Resistance: 80,248.62
What it said to watch
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~1.75h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 80249 London high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the 38.2% fib at 80420–80440 into focus
Loss of the 80027 higher low returns focus to the London low at 79762 and the Asian low at 79625
10:33 UTC
Downtrend after Asia selloff, now compressing · RSI 57 · price 80,056.84
Lower highs from 80438, higher lows from 79625; contracting range.
The post-FOMC spike to 81703 faded. The Asia session broke the 81000–81370 hold and slid to the 79625 asian low as the dollar recovered. London has compressed between the 79752 swing low and the 80249 london high, with lower highs off the 80438 swing high. Price is pinned just above the 80000 round number, with RSI(14) neutral at 57.
Support: 80,000.00, 79,752.00, 79,625.00
Resistance: 80,249.00, 80,438.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80249 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the 80438 swing high
Failure to hold the 80000 round number and the 79752 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 79625 asian low
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read and resolve the compression
Pennant: lower highs, higher lows after Asia drop.
An Asia session sell-off took BTC from 81,293 to the 79,625 Asia low as the dollar recovered after the Fed hold. Price has since compressed into a pennant, with the London low at 79,752 holding above the Asia low and the London high capped at 80,248, near the 38.2% retrace and below the 80,438 swing high. Price sits just above the 80,000 round number mid-London, RSI(14) neutral near 55.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 80,248 London high and the pennant top opens the 80,438 swing high
Failure to hold the 80,000 round number and the 79,752 London low exposes the 79,625 Asia low
Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2h), plus the ECB decision today, could materially shift this read via the USD
10:04 UTC
Down from post-FOMC high, now compressing · RSI 58 · price 80,126.76
Lower highs and higher lows inside the Asian range.
The FOMC-hold spike to 81703 faded, and an Asia session sell-off reached the 79625 asian low. The asian high at 80438 capped the bounce near the 38.2% of the post-FOMC drop fib. Early London is still inside the Asian range, with a higher low at 79752 and a lower London high at 80248 squeezing price around 80130 ahead of PCE.
Support: 79,752.17, 79,625.31
Resistance: 80,438.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above 80248 london high puts the 80438 asian high / 38.2% fib back in play
Failure to hold the 79752 higher low reopens the 79625 asian low
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could break the compression either way
Compression between 79625 session low and 80438 lower high.
The post-FOMC spike to 81703 fully reversed in Asia and bottomed at the 79625 session low. The bounce stalled at the 80438 lower high, right at the 38.2% fib of that drop. London opened off a higher low at 79752 and reached 80248, and price is now holding just above the 80000 round number with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 80,000.00, 79,752.17, 79,625.31
Resistance: 80,438.42
What it said to watch
Close above the 80248 london high, then the 80438 lower high, breaks the compression to the upside
Loss of the 79752 higher low reopens the 79625 session low
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
09:33 UTC
Post-Fed downtrend, now basing in a range · RSI 49 · price 80,046.85
79,625–80,438 range; lower highs against higher lows.
BTC was rejected at 81,703 after the Fed hold and slid through the Asia session to the 79,625 asia low. It has since compressed between lower highs from the 80,438 swing high and higher lows from 79,625. A London-open lift off a twin base at the 79,752 higher low stalled at the 80,248 session high. Price is pivoting on the 80,000 round number, just above a flat EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
What it said to watch
A close above the 80,248 session high reopens the 80,438 swing high, which sits near the 38.2% of the post-fed drop
Failure to hold the 80,000 round number and then the 79,752 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 79,625 asia low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read via the USD and yields
09:18 UTC
Post-FOMC selloff, now compressing · RSI 52 · price 80,127.76
Rising lows under lower highs, inside 79625–80438.
The post-FOMC drop from 81703 ran through the Asia session as the dollar reclaimed 102.00, stalling at the 79625 Asia low. London has printed rising lows from the 79752 London low beneath lower highs from 80438. Price is compressing near the 23.6% fib of the post-FOMC drop at 80127, RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 79,752.17, 79,625.31
Resistance: 80,438.42
What it said to watch
A close above the 80248 London high, then the 80438 lower high (38.2% fib), breaks the compression higher
Loss of the 79752 London low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 79625 Asia low
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
09:06 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near 80,000 · RSI 45 · price 80,008.89
Lower high at 80,438, London range 79,752–80,070.
After the post-FOMC rejection at 81,703, BTC slid to an Asia low of 79,625 as the USD firmed. The bounce stalled at 80,438, the fib 38.2 retracement, and set a lower high. London is now holding a 79,752–80,070 range around the 80,000 round number, with a swing low at 79,752 and the London high at 80,070, RSI(14) mid-40s.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,070 London high breaks the session range; 80,438 fib 38.2 is the next cap
Failure to hold the 79,752 swing low exposes the 79,625 Asia low and extends the lower-low sequence
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read via the USD and yields
Descending lower-highs line from 81,703 stays intact while price holds below 80,438
08:48 UTC
Downtrend, compressing above the Asia low · RSI 49 · price 79,917.99
Lower highs at 80438 and 80070, higher low at 79752.
Asia session sold off from 81293 to the 79625 Asia low as USD firmed after the FOMC hold. The rebound was rejected at the 80438 swing high, near the 50% retracement of the Asia sell-off, leaving a lower high. In the first hour of London, price capped at the 80070 session high and slipped back under the 80000 psych and EMA20, squeezing between that level and the 79752 higher low.
Support: 79,752.17, 79,625.31
Resistance: 80,069.82, 80,438.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80070 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 80438 swing high back in play
Failure to hold the 79752 higher low exposes the 79625 Asia low; a break there extends the downtrend
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read via the USD and yield reaction
Lower high at 80438 after Asia sell-off; London building a tight range under 80000.
The post-FOMC range near 81300 gave way in Asia hours as the USD firmed after the hawkish-split hold, with price sliding to the 79625 asia low. The rebound stalled at the 80438 swing high, just shy of the 50% fib of the Asia sell-off, forming a lower high. Early London is holding above the 79752 london low but capped by the 80000 psych level and the 80070 london high, with price below the EMA20 near 80010.
Support: 79,752.17, 79,625.31
Resistance: 80,000.00, 80,069.82, 80,438.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80070 london high, and the 80438 swing high beyond it, would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 79752 london low exposes the 79625 asia low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read via the USD/yield reaction
08:18 UTC
Downtrend, early London bounce · RSI 43 · price 79,947.96
Lower highs from the post-FOMC 81,703 spike; holding a higher low above the Asia low.
The post-FOMC spike to 81,703 was rejected and unwound overnight as USD firmed after the hawkish-leaning hold. Price made an Asia low at 79,625, then a lower high at 80,438, near 38.2% of the fomc fade. The London open pushed off the 79,752 swing low to an 80,048 london high, but price is still capped below EMA20 near 80,010 with RSI(14) around 43.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 80,048 london high challenges the lower-high sequence and opens a move back toward 80,438.
Losing the 79,752 swing low exposes the 79,625 asia low and extends the downtrend.
Acceptance above the 80,438 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline off the FOMC spike.
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read via the USD and yields.
08:06 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 79,806.11
Lower highs after Asia breakdown; failed bounce at 38.2% fib.
The Asia session broke down from the 81,290 high to the 79,625 asia low as the USD firmed after the Fed hold. The bounce stalled at 80,438, the fib 38.2 retracement of the 81,703–79,625 drop, and has faded in lower highs below the 80,000 round number into London open. Price is compressing just above the 79,752 recent low.
What it said to watch
Break below the 79,752 recent low puts the 79,625 asia low in play; a move through it extends the lower-low sequence
Closes back above the 80,000 round number would end the lower-high fade
An M15 close above 80,438 (fib 38.2) invalidates the failed-bounce read
US Core PCE, GDP and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read via the USD and yields
07:48 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower after a failed bounce · RSI 43 · price 79,780.14
Lower highs below the 81,000–81,300 range, testing toward the Asian low.
Price was rejected near 81,700 after FOMC, then broke down from the 81,000–81,300 range during the Asia session to a 79,625 low as the dollar firmed on the hold with two hawkish dissents. The bounce stalled at 80,438, a lower high just under the 50% fib of the drop. Price is now drifting back toward the Asian low into the London open.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 79,676 swing low and then the 79,625 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence
A close back above the 80,000 round number and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the Asia selloff read; the 80,438 lower high is the next cap
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~4.75h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower high at 80,438, drifting back toward session low.
The post-FOMC pop to 81,703 faded, and the Asia session broke down to a 79,625 session low as USD firmed on the hawkish-leaning hold. The rebound met rejection at the 80,438 lower high and has since given back about 78% of its gain, leaving price below the 80,000 psych level and under both EMAs into London open, with RSI(14) near 34.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 79,625 session low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 79,500 round number next
A reclaim of the 80,000 psych level and the lower-highs line puts 80,438 back in view
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read through USD and yields
Lower high at 80,438 after the 79,625 swing low; price back testing the pullback low.
The post-FOMC spike to 81,703 was rejected, and the Asia session broke the 81,050–81,300 range to a 79,625 swing low as the USD recovered. The bounce stalled at the 80,438 bounce high on the 38.2% fib, and price has faded back below 80,000 psych and the falling trendline to sit on the 79,794 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 33.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 79,794 pullback low exposes the 79,625 swing low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming 80,000 psych and the falling trendline (~80,110) would reopen the 80,438 bounce high and the 38.2% fib
London open within the hour may set the session range off the current low
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Asia breakdown from the post-FOMC range, lower high at 80438.
BTC broke out of the post-FOMC 81000–81350 range during the Asia session. USD firmness and rising yields took price through the prior low near 80298 to a 79621 swing low. The rebound stalled at 80438, a lower high at the fib 38.2 of the 81703–79621 drop, and price has slipped back under the 80000 psych level toward the 79822 session low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) at 36.
Support: 79,822.00, 79,621.00
Resistance: 80,000.00, 80,298.00, 80,438.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79822 session low exposes the 79621 swing low
Recovery through the 80000 psych and the 80298 prior low, then the 80438 fib 38.2 and lower highs line, negates the downtrend read
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower high at 80,438 after the Asia low; price back under 80,000.
The Asia session unwound the post-Fed spike, sliding from 81,290 to the 79,625 asia low as USD firmed on rising yields and oil-driven inflation worries. The rebound stalled at the 80,438 swing high, near the 50% retrace of the Asia drop. Price has slipped back under the 80,000 psych into late Asia and is sitting on the 79,916 micro low ahead of London open.
What it said to watch
Break of the 79,916 micro low exposes the 79,625 asia low; a lower low there extends the Asia downtrend
An M15 close back above the 80,000 psych, then the 80,438 swing high, would negate the lower-high sequence
The 80,771 breakdown level marks where the Asia drop accelerated; reclaiming it unwinds the selloff
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~5.7h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs from 81703; higher low at 79916 vs 79625 under test.
The Asia session sold off from the 81,290 area to a 79,625 session low as the dollar firmed after the FOMC, extending lower highs off the 81,703 post-Fed peak beneath the falling trendline. The rebound stalled at the 80,438 swing high and has slipped back to the 61.8% bounce fib, now pressing the 80,000 psych level just above the 79,916 swing low, with RSI(14) near 39 and price under both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79,916 swing low exposes the 79,625 session low and cancels the higher-low read
Recovery above the 80,298 prior low and 80,438 swing high would break the falling trendline and the lower-high sequence
London open in roughly 1.5h may extend or reverse the Asian range
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs after a post-FOMC double top; Asia bounce rejected under the prior low.
The post-FOMC spike to 81703 stalled at the London-session high, forming a double top. The Asia session then broke the 80298 prior low and ran to the 79625 Asia low as the USD recovered. The late-Asia bounce capped at the 80438 bounce high and has slipped back under the prior low and EMA20, with price now sitting on the fib 50% of the Asia leg near 80030.
Support: 79,935.90, 79,625.31
Resistance: 80,438.42, 80,771.05
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 80298 prior low and the 80438 bounce high negates the rejection read
Failure to hold the fib 61.8% at 79936 puts the 79625 Asia low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 80771 breakdown level needed to neutralise the overnight sell-off
London open at 08:00 UTC is the first test of the Asian range (79625–80438)
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read via the USD and yields
Lower high at 80438 after Asia break of post-FOMC range.
The Fed's in-line hold drove a two-way NY session move to 81703. Asia then broke the post-FOMC 81000–81350 range and printed a 79625 asia low as the USD recovered. The rebound met rejection at 80438, a rebound high just under the 50% fib of the drop. Price is now back below the 80298 pre-fomc low and EMA20, drifting toward the 80000 round number ahead of London open.
Support: 80,000.00, 79,625.31
Resistance: 80,438.42, 80,800.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80438 rebound high breaks the lower-high sequence and the 50% fib rejection
Failure to hold the 80000 round number exposes the 79625 asia low
Reclaim of the 80298 pre-fomc low and EMA20 would ease the downside structure; the 80800 breakdown zone sits above
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read
Post-Fed range broken lower in Asia; retest of broken lows from below.
Double top at 81700 gave way in the Asia session: price broke the post-Fed 81050 range base and Wednesday's 80300 prior lows, then printed a 79625 Asia low as the dollar recovered on hike bets. The bounce stalled at the 80440 bounce high, near the 50% retracement, and price is now pinned just under the prior lows ahead of London open.
Support: 80,000.00, 79,625.00
Resistance: 80,300.00, 80,440.00, 81,050.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 80440 bounce high undoes the failed-retest read and puts the 81050 range base back in view
Loss of the 80000 round number re-exposes the 79625 Asia low
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~6.75h) could materially shift this read via the USD and yields
Lower low at 79,625; corrective higher-low rebound capped near the 50% fib.
The post-FOMC NY spike to 81,703 fully unwound during the Asia session as the dollar recovered. The Asian drop from 81,293 printed the Asian low at 79,625 at 02:30 UTC. The higher-low rebound stalled at 80,438, near the 50% retracement, and price is now retesting the 38.2% fib at 80,262 with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 80,262 exposes the 80,000 round number
M15 close above the 80,438 rebound high opens the path to the 80,800 breakdown area
Break of the 79,625 Asian low invalidates the higher-low base and extends the lower-low sequence
London open, then core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (~7h), could materially shift this read
05:18 UTC
Post-FOMC selloff, Asia rebound in progress · RSI 51 · price 80,367.49
Lower high at 81,703 to a 79,625 swing low; higher lows since, now retesting the breakdown zone.
The post-FOMC rally to 81,703 fully reversed during the Asia session. A 01:00–02:30 UTC slide through the 80,815 breakdown level ran to a 79,625 swing low as the dollar recovered. A higher-low rebound since 04:00 UTC has lifted price into the 80,300–80,420 area, the 38.2% fib of that drop, with RSI(14) back near 51 and price above EMA20 but still below EMA50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 80,420 (38.2% fib) opens the 50% fib at 80,664, then the 80,815 breakdown level
Rejection at 80,420 and a loss of the 80,000 round number reopens the 79,625 swing low
Break of the rebound line from 79,625 ends the higher-low sequence
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:07 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce off the lows · RSI 46 · price 80,176.70
Lower highs since the FOMC high; Asia base 79625–79950 now lifting.
The post-FOMC spike to 81703 was rejected at London's 81717 high, forming a double top. Asia then broke the overnight 81050–81350 range and slid to a 79625 swing low as USD firmed on the hawkish-tilt hold with two hike dissents. A higher low at 79676 preceded a late-Asia bounce back through the 80000 psych level to an 80222 bounce high, just above the 23.6% fib, with yesterday's 80300 prior low and the 38.2% fib at 80420 overhead.
Support: 80,000.00, 79,676.00, 79,625.00
Resistance: 80,222.00, 80,300.00, 80,420.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80222 bounce high opens the 80300 prior low and the 38.2% fib at 80420
Close back below 80000 psych returns price to the 79676–79950 base
Break of the 79625 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
London open in ~2h may set a fresh session range
Core PCE / GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 81703; Asian range break through yesterday's NY low, now basing 79625–80010 with a higher low.
The post-FOMC spike was rejected at 81703, just under the London high, as the USD firmed on the Fed's hawkish-tilt hold with two hike dissents. Asia then broke the 81050–81350 range and yesterday's 80298 NY low from the 80478 breakdown bar, bottoming at the 79625 session low. Late in the Asia session price is basing, with a higher low at 79676 and the current bar pressing the 80000 psych level beneath the 80093 lower high.
Support: 80,000.00, 79,676.25, 79,625.31
Resistance: 80,092.80, 80,478.37
What it said to watch
A close above the 80093 lower high opens the 38.2% fib near 80262 and the 80298 ny low, now overhead.
Failure to hold the 79676 higher low breaks the rising lows line and puts the 79625 session low back in play.
A move back above the 80478 breakdown bar would neutralise the Asian range break.
US Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read via the USD and yields.
04:33 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after Asia breakdown · RSI 28 · price 79,817.10
Lower low at 79625, tight consolidation 79676–79948 below broken range.
Asia session broke the 81000–81350 post-FOMC range and cleared yesterday's 80299 prior low, bottoming at the 79625 swing low as USD firmed on oil and yields. Since then price is coiling between a 79676 higher low and the 79948 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 28 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 79,676.25, 79,625.31
Resistance: 79,947.96, 80,298.57, 80,419.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 79948 bounce high ends the consolidation and puts the 80299 prior low in play as resistance
Loss of the 79676 higher low and 79625 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
Fib 38.2 of the post-FOMC leg at 80419 marks the deeper retracement cap
London open in ~2.5h tends to resolve the Asian range
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
Double top broken lower, now a tight range below 80000.
The 81703–81717 double top resolved lower in the Asia session. Price broke yesterday's NY low at 80298 and slid to an asia low at 79625 as the USD firmed on oil-driven inflation worries after the FOMC hold. It is now compressing in a 79625–79948 range just under the 80000 psych level late in the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 79,625.31, 79,500.00
Resistance: 79,947.96, 80,000.00
What it said to watch
A close back above the 79948 range high and 80000 psych opens a retracement toward the 80298 NY low and the 38.2% fib of the selloff near 80420
Failure to hold the 79625 asia low resumes the lower-low sequence, with the 79500 round number next
US core PCE, GDP and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
Post-FOMC range broken lower in Asia; lower highs below 79950.
The Asia session broke the 81050–81350 post-FOMC range lower and slid to a 79625 session low as the dollar firmed on oil-driven inflation worries. RSI(14) sits near 27. The bounce stalled at 79948, below the 80000 psych level, and lower highs have formed since above a 79676 higher low.
Support: 79,676.25, 79,625.31
Resistance: 79,947.96, 80,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79625 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 79948 bounce high and 80000 psych reopens the 80300 prior low and the 38.2% retrace near 80260
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (~8.5h) could materially shift this read
Asia breakdown from post-Fed range, tight consolidation 79625–79950.
The Asia sell-off from 81293 at 00:00 UTC broke the post-Fed 81050–81350 range. Price cut through the 80298 pre-fed low and 80000 psych to a session low at 79625 by 02:30 UTC as USD firmed in Asian hours. Since then price has compressed between 79625 and the 79948 swing high, with a higher low at 79676 and RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 79,676.25, 79,625.31
Resistance: 79,947.96, 80,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 79625 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Loss of the 79676 higher low turns the consolidation into a bear flag-style continuation
Reclaim of the 79948 swing high and 80000 psych puts the 80298 pre-fed low and the 38.2% of the Asia sell-off (~80262) in play
London open in ~3h is the first test of the Asian range extremes
Core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (~8.7h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows after the range break; tight 79,625–79,950 base under 80,000.
The Asia session broke the post-Fed 81,050–81,370 range and the prior low near 80,300, printing an Asia low at 79,625 as the USD recovered ground after the Fed hold. Bounces have stalled under the 80,000 psych level with RSI(14) near 27. The 38.2% fib of the post-Fed drop sits near 80,420.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 80,000 psych level and the 80,300 prior low would mark the first higher high since the selloff began
Loss of the 79,625 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 79,500 round number
Reclaim of the 80,770 breakdown level, near the 61.8% fib, negates the range break read
London open in about 4.5h is the first test of the Asian range
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double top at 81700 broken; lower lows below the 80298 neckline.
Rejection at 81703 after the FOMC hold mirrored London's 81717 high. That double top resolved in the Asia session, breaking the 80298 neckline into a 79625 asia low as the USD firmed. Price is now pressing back toward the 80000 psych level, with RSI(14) lifting off sub-30 and a wide ATR near $198 that follows the post-FOMC drop.
Support: 79,625.00
Resistance: 80,000.00, 80,298.00, 81,703.00
What it said to watch
Close back above the 80298 neckline undercuts the breakdown read
Break of the 79625 asia low extends the lower-low sequence
Rejection at 80000 psych keeps the bounce corrective
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
03:06 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 28 · price 79,897.01
Post-FOMC range broken lower, lower lows below prior low.
The post-FOMC 81000–81350 range gave way in the Asia session as the USD recovered. Price sliced through the NY prior low at 80298 to a session low at 79625; the bounce is holding the 79796 swing low but is capped below the 80093 minor high, with RSI(14) at 28.
Support: 79,796.00, 79,625.00
Resistance: 80,093.00, 80,298.00, 80,460.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 80298 prior low, near the 38.2% fib, would undercut the breakdown read
Rejection between the 80093 minor high and the 50% fib at 80460 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the 79625 session low extends the lower-low chain
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows after breaking down from the post-FOMC range.
The Asia session extended a sell-off out of the 81,050–81,300 post-FOMC range. It cut through the 80,299 prior low and the 80,000 handle to a session low at 79,625 as the USD recovered after the Fed presser. RSI(14) near 17 is deeply oversold, but the only bounce stalled at the 80,093 bounce high, and the 79,872 breakdown level is capping the current bar.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 79,625 session low exposes the 79,500 round number
M15 close back above the 80,093 bounce high and 80,000 would break the descending line and open the 23.6–38.2% post-FOMC fib zone at 80,115–80,419
Reclaim of the 80,299 prior low invalidates the breakdown read
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:33 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after Asia breakdown · RSI 16 · price 79,812.11
Post-FOMC range broken lower; lower-low chain below prior NY low.
Asia session broke the post-FOMC 81050–81370 range at 01:00 UTC, cutting through yesterday's NY low at 80298 and the 80,000 psych level to a session low of 79796. The slide tracks the USD recovering ground in Asia after the Fed hold. RSI(14) near 16 is deeply oversold, and the last three bars are stalling just above the low.
Support: 79,796.12
Resistance: 80,000.00, 81,050.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 79796 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 80000 psych level brings the 80298 ny low and the 38.2% retrace of the fomc high–asia low leg near 80520 into play
Only a move back above the 81050 range floor negates the breakdown read
Core PCE / GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
Post-FOMC range broken lower, lower highs since 81703, fresh session low.
The post-presser spike to 81703 faded into a lower-high sequence. The 81050–81350 post-FOMC range gave way in the Asia session as the USD recovered, and price sliced through the pre-FOMC low at 80298 and the 80000 psych to a session low at 79796. RSI(14) near 16 is deeply oversold and the selloff bars have stretched ATR. Price is pinned below 80000 with no bounce yet.
Support: 79,796.12, 79,500.00
Resistance: 80,000.00, 80,524.60
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 79796 session low exposes the 79500 round number
Reclaim of 80000 psych and the pre-fomc low at 80298 would mark the breakdown as overextended
Bounce capped below the fib 38.2 at 80525 keeps the lower-high trendline sequence intact
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
02:05 UTC
Downtrend, sharp extension into Asia · RSI 17 · price 79,901.01
Post-FOMC range broken, lower lows below prior low.
Early Asia session broke the post-FOMC 81,050–81,370 range, then sliced through yesterday's 80,298 prior low to a 79,796 session low as the USD regained footing. The drop from the 81,703 FOMC spike high followed a lower-highs sequence. RSI(14) near 17 is deeply oversold, with price pinned under the 80,000 psych level.
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 80,298 prior low would turn the break below it into a false break
Acceptance under 80,000 psych keeps the lower-low sequence intact; a loss of the 79,796 session low exposes the 79,000 round number
Any rebound meets the fomc drop fib 50–61.8% zone (80,750–80,975), with the range floor at 81,050 above it
The lower highs trendline from the 81,703 FOMC spike high caps the post-FOMC structure
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu (~10.5h) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, post-FOMC spike fully retraced.
Early in the Asia session BTC broke below the 81,020 asian low and erased the whole post-FOMC spike to the 81,703 post-fed high. It printed an 80,392 session low as the USD firmed. RSI(14) at 16 is deeply oversold, with the 80,299 pre-fed low the next reference below.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 80,299 pre-fed low confirms a lower low beneath the pre-FOMC base, with the 80,000 round number next
Reclaiming the 80,771 minor low shifts the read toward a retracement of the drop, with fib 38.2% near 80,893 above it
A return above the 81,020 asian low negates the range break
Core PCE / GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu (~11h) can reset this structure via the USD and yields
01:32 UTC
Downtrend, intraday selling into early Asia · RSI 27 · price 80,730.09
Post-FOMC range floor broken, lower highs from 81,366.
Early Asia session broke the 81,050 range floor that held post-FOMC trade, cutting through the 61.8% fib of the 80,300–81,703 Fed rally to a fresh asia low at 80,723. Price is below a double top near 81,710, lower highs are capping from the 81,295 asia high and RSI(14) sits near 27, as USD firms in Asia after the hawkish hold.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80,610 swing low exposes the 80,300 day low and a full retrace of the Fed rally
Recovery and close back above the 81,050 range floor would mark the breakdown as a false break
A push through the Asia lower-highs line and the 81,295 asia high would neutralise the intraday sell-off
Core PCE / GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read via USD and yields
The Fed hold and a softer USD lifted BTC from the 80299 NY low to 81703, where it was rejected just under the 81717 London high, forming a double top. Early Asia broke the 81053–81366 post-Fed range floor, printed an Asian low at 80771, and is now holding between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the post-Fed rally.
Support: 80,771.05, 80,298.57
Resistance: 81,052.74, 81,366.39, 81,710.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81053 range floor returns price to the post-Fed range, with the range top at 81366 above
Failure to hold the 80771 asian low exposes the 61.8% fib near 80835 giving way and the 80615 pre-fed base, then the 80299 ny low
A push through the 81710 double top invalidates the topping read
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:07 UTC
Post-FOMC rally faded, drifting lower in early Asia · RSI 39 · price 81,008.79
Lower highs inside 81050–81370 consolidation, floor under test.
The softer USD after the in-line Fed hold lifted price from the 80300 double btm to 81703. The rally was rejected there, forming a double top with the 81717 London high, and price has since compressed in an 81050–81370 consolidation capped by a lower high at 81293. Early Asia is slipping through the 81050 range floor onto the 50% fib of the FOMC leg near 81000, roughly at the ema50, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 80,907.00, 80,630.00, 80,300.00
Resistance: 81,293.00, 81,710.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81050 range floor negates the break and restores the consolidation read
Failure to hold the 80907 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 80835 and the 80630 fomc base
A close above the 81293 lower high reopens the 81700 double top
Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~11.5h) and the USD/yield reaction to Powell could materially shift this read
00:48 UTC
Post-FOMC range, drifting to the lows · RSI 44 · price 81,065.72
81053–81366 range under the 81703 day high; early Asia lower highs.
The Fed hold read less hawkish and USD weakened, lifting BTC from the 80300 lows to an 81703 day high, a lower high under the 81717 London-session top. Price has since compressed into an 81053–81366 range. Early Asia has slipped off the 81293 asia high to sit on the range low, with RSI(14) near 44 and price under EMA20, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the post-Fed leg.
Support: 81,053.00, 80,907.00, 80,614.00
Resistance: 81,293.00, 81,366.00, 81,703.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81053 range low opens the 50% fib near 81000 and the 80907 swing low
Loss of 80907 brings the 80614 fomc low into view
Reclaim of the 81293 asia high puts the 81366 range high back in play; rejection at the 81703 day high keeps the lower-high read
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu (~12h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Sideways 81050–81366 below a twin high at 81703/81717.
The FOMC hold, traded as less hawkish than feared with USD softer, lifted price from the 80298 pre-Fed low. The leg was rejected at 81703, just shy of the 81717 London high, and that pair now forms a double top. Since then price has ranged between the 81053 range low and the 81366 range top through late NY into the early Asia session. Price sits at 81111, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Fed leg, with RSI(14) near 42 and no momentum extreme.
Support: 81,053.00, 80,907.00
Resistance: 81,366.00, 81,710.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 81053 range low exposes the 80907 post-fed low and the 50% fib near 81000.
A close above the 81366 range top brings the 81703–81717 double top back into play.
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read via the USD and yield reaction.
Tight range 81,052–81,366 under a rejected high, holding above rally midpoint.
The in-line Fed hold sparked a USD-softening rally from the 80,299 day low to 81,703. That fomc high was a rejection just under the 81,717 london high. Since late NY, price has compressed in an 81,052–81,366 range above the 38.2% fib of that rally, with RSI(14) flat near 49 as the Asia session opens inside it.
What it said to watch
Close above the 81,366 range high reopens the 81,703 fomc high / 81,717 london high zone
Loss of the 81,052 range low exposes the 80,907 pullback low and the 50% fib near 81,000
Below 80,835 (61.8% fib), most of the FOMC rally is retraced, with the 80,299 day low back in focus
Core PCE / GDP at 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
00:06 UTC
Post-Fed recovery, now consolidating · RSI 57 · price 81,279.49
Tight 81050–81370 range with rising lows, capped below twin highs.
The 18:00 UTC Fed hold triggered a sell-the-fact USD dip that lifted BTC from the 80,300 NY low to 81,703, where price was rejected just shy of the 81,717 London high, forming twin highs. Since then price has compressed between the 81,050 range low and the 81,370 range top, which sits near the 23.6% retrace of the FOMC rally fib. Lows are rising into the Asia session open, with RSI neutral near 57.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 81,370 range top opens a retest of the 81,700–81,717 twin highs
Failure to hold the 81,050 range low and the rising lows exposes the 80,907 swing low and the 50% FOMC rally fib near 81,000
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu (~12h) could materially shift this read via the USD and yields