After the mid-window slide from 1.16 into the 1.1325 low, price has carved higher lows and recovered into a tight 1.1408-1.1452 consolidation, with the 1.1470/1.1500 zone capping topside as noted in the EUR digest. ATR(14) compression signals a coiled range and a breakout pending. Price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50, but the recovery has stalled beneath the 1.1470 recovery high.
Support: 1.1408, 1.1370, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1452, 1.1472, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1472 opens the path to 1.1500
Break of 1.1390-1.1410 exposes 1.1370, then 1.1210
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
German HICP Fri as the week's inflation checkpoint
Consolidating below 1.1470 after bounce off 1.1325.
EUR/USD rebounded off the 1.1325 range low to tag 1.1472 before rolling into a lower-high sequence, now consolidating just under mid-range. ATR(14) has compressed sharply after the mid-window flush, with price coiling between 1.1408 support and the 1.1470 cap as USD safe-haven flows keep the pair heavy. Price sits below EMA20 but holds above EMA50.
Support: 1.1408, 1.1370, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1472, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1470 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens 1.1500
Loss of 1.1408 exposes 1.1370 and the 1.1325 range low
FOMC minutes (Jul 8) and German HICP (Jul 10) could shift this read
Higher-low base rolling into tight consolidation sub-1.1450.
Price carved a higher low off the early-month capitulation near 1.1325 and rallied to a 1.1472 swing high before easing into a tight range in the mid-1.14s; the pullback is USD-led on Hormuz haven flows rather than EUR weakness. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 16 pips, a coiling regime that typically precedes a directional break. Price now sits just under EMA20 while holding above EMA50, leaving structure balanced within the 1.1408-1.1472 band.
Support: 1.1408, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1472, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1472 swing high reopens the path to 1.1500
Break of 1.1408 exposes the 1.1370 range floor
German HICP Fri and FOMC minutes Wed are the key catalysts that could break this range
Price bounced from the 1.1325 swing low but the recovery stalled at 1.1472 after the soft US NFP (57K) drove the dollar lower; EUR/USD is now consolidating in the low 1.1400s below the 20-day EMA barrier near 1.1460. Structure shows a higher low versus 1.1325, though the last few bars are drifting toward the 1.1400 round level. ATR remains moderate with no directional expansion yet.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1369, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1460, 1.1472, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Lagarde speech 16:00 UTC (HIGH) and US ISM Services 14:00 UTC could shift this read
H4 close above 1.1460 opens the path back to 1.1472 and the 1.1500 psych cap
Failure to hold 1.1400 exposes the 1.1369 swing low
EURUSD sold off from the early-June 1.1621 high to a 1.1329 swing low, then bounced to 1.1472 as the soft US NFP (57K) knocked the dollar. The recovery has stalled into the 1.1475 zone — coincident with the 50% retrace of the impulse leg down — and price is now compressing between 1.1425 and 1.1472 with ATR(14) contracting. EMA20 and EMA50 sit just below spot, keeping the corrective structure intact but capped.
Support: 1.1425, 1.1376, 1.1329
Resistance: 1.1472, 1.1475, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1475 opens the path back toward 1.1500
Failure to hold 1.1425 puts 1.1376 and the 1.1329 low back in play
Lagarde 16:00 UTC and US ISM Services 14:00 UTC could break the compression
Double bottom off 1.1325, consolidating below 1.1475.
Price carved a double bottom near 1.1325 in mid-window and has recovered to trade back above the EMA20/EMA50, but the bounce stalled into the 1.14723 swing high with the broader 1.1475 nfp cap unbroken. EUR firmed on last week's soft US NFP, yet rallies keep fading below 1.1475 as ECB-hike doubts grow. ATR(14) has compressed as price coils between 1.14162 and 1.14723, keeping the recovery contained.
Support: 1.14162, 1.1400, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.14723, 1.1475, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.14750 opens the path toward the 1.15000 psych zone
Failure to hold 1.14162 swing low exposes 1.1400 psych then the 1.1325 double bottom
Lagarde 16:00 UTC and US ISM Services could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Recovery within broader downtrend · RSI 54 · price 1.14317
Higher lows off 1.1325, capped near 1.1475.
EUR/USD based at 1.1325 and recovered on USD weakness following the soft NFP print, pushing to 1.1472 before the rally stalled. Near-term higher-low structure is intact but supply keeps capping the move below the 1.1475 cap flagged all week. ATR is moderate, with price now consolidating just above the EMA20 after the pullback from 1.1472.
Support: 1.1387, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1472, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1475 confirms USD-led upside extends toward 1.1500
Failure to hold 1.1387 reopens the 1.1325 range low
ISM Services 14:00 UTC and Lagarde 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 1.1325, consolidating below 1.1475.
Price carved a rounded base off the 1.1325 swing low and has ground back up into a 1.1370-1.1475 band, building higher lows through late June. The recovery is USD-driven after the soft NFP print rather than a euro-led move, and rallies have stalled below the 1.1475 swing high. ATR(14) has eased from the June expansion, pointing to compression under resistance.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1325, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1475, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1475 opens the path toward the 1.1500 psych barrier
Failure to hold 1.1370 higher low reopens the 1.1325 swing low
ISM Services 14:00 UTC and Lagarde 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Price carved a rounded bottom off the 1.1325 swing low and has recovered on broad USD weakness after Thursday's soft NFP print, with EMA20 now back above EMA50. The last week prints higher lows but rallies are stalling into the 1.1470-1.1500 supply zone flagged as a cap, and the tape is consolidating tightly around 1.1435. ATR(14) has cooled from the mid-window expansion, leaving compression under the range top.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1370, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1472, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1472 opens the path to the 1.1500 cap
Failure to hold 1.1410 exposes the 1.1370 swing low
ISM Services (14:00 UTC) and Lagarde (16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
The multi-week downtrend from 1.1620 bottomed at 1.1325 and price has carved a higher-low recovery, lifting through both EMAs on the back of USD weakness after the soft NFP miss. Momentum stalled into the 1.1472 two-week high, and price is now consolidating in the 1.1430s. The 1.1470-1.1500 zone is where prior rallies have faded, keeping this a resistance-heavy recovery.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1369, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1472, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1472 opens the path toward the 1.1500 psych cap
Failure to hold 1.1410 support reopens 1.1369 and the 1.1325 swing low
ISM Services (14:00 UTC) and Lagarde (16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read