EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Monday, 13 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:02 UTC
Range within downtrend, rolling over · RSI 39 · price 1.13829
Lower highs, testing range floor.
Price sold off from the mid-1.16s into a 1.1325 swing low earlier in the window, then recovered into a 1.1325-1.1460 range. The bounce stalled repeatedly at the 1.1460 range top and price is now rolling over back below the 1.1420 pivot, with the USD bid on Middle East risk premium weighing. The break under 1.1400 leaves price probing the 1.1380 support zone.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1460
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1380 opens the 1.1325 swing low
Reclaim of 1.1460 range top needed to extend the bounce
Lagarde and US CPI Tue are back-to-back risks that could reshape the range
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, ranging near lows · RSI 40 · price 1.13829
Multi-week range rolling over toward floor.
Price broke sharply from the early-month 1.162 shelf to 1.1325, then recovered into a 1.1360-1.1472 range that held roughly three weeks. The latest sequence rejected at the 1.1445 prior high and is sliding back toward the range floor, with EUR capped as Middle East escalation bids the USD. Price now sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI in the high 30s, structure tilting toward the 1.1360 support.
Support: 1.1382, 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1445, 1.1472
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1360 confirms range break, opening 1.1325
Reclaim of 1.1445 needed to re-engage the 1.1472 range top
Lagarde speech Tue 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend faded into range · RSI 43 · price 1.14004
Multi-day range, testing lower edge.
The early-window slide from 1.1620 to the 1.1325 swing low resolved into a multi-day range between 1.1388 and 1.1460, with EUR staying July's softest G10 currency as soft HICP and safe-haven USD flows capped upside. Price was rejected near the 1.1460 range high and the latest H4 bar shed ~30 pips to close at 1.1400, back at the lower edge. ATR(14) is compressed and both EMAs sit just above price, flat.
Support: 1.1388, 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1445, 1.1460, 1.1472
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1388 confirms lower-low, opening 1.1360 then 1.1325 swing low
H4 close above 1.1460 range high needed to challenge 1.1472
Lagarde speech and US CPI (Tue) could materially shift this read
EUR/USD sold off from 1.1619 to 1.1325 through the middle of the window, then recovered into a multi-day range roughly 1.1380-1.1460. Price now sits at 1.1400 below both EMA20 and EMA50 with a string of slightly lower highs capping under the prior high at 1.1446; ATR(14) has compressed toward 24 pips as the range matures. The soft-inflation/pause narrative and safe-haven USD flows keep the pair pinned near range support.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1446, 1.1460
What it said to watch
US CPI (Tue) and Lagarde speech could materially shift this range read
H4 close below 1.1380 swing low confirms a lower-low toward 1.1325 range low
H4 close above 1.1460 range top breaks the consolidation higher
After the sharp early-June leg from 1.1620 down to 1.1325, price has spent weeks chopping in a 1.1390-1.1460 band with ATR(14) compressed near recent lows. EMA20 and EMA50 are flat and coiled around price at 1.1430, underlining the balance. EUR sits defensive near the range floor as a firm USD safe-haven bid and the ECB-pause narrative cap rebounds into US CPI.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1460, 1.1475
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1390 support zone opens the 1.1325 swing low then 1.1210
Break above the 1.1460 rejection high targets the 1.1475 resistance
US CPI (Tue) and Lagarde speech could break the range and reset this read
EUR/USD carved a base near 1.1325 in late June and has since ground higher into a 1.1390-1.1475 range, tracing rising lows off the floor. ATR has compressed as the pair coils under the 1.1475/1.1500 cap flagged into US CPI, with soft EZ inflation and ECB-pause pricing keeping the euro heavy. Price sits just above EMA20/50 but momentum is flat.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1472, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1390 pivot risks resuming the downtrend toward the 1.1325 floor
Clearance of the 1.1475/1.1500 cap needed to extend the recovery
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC is the dominant driver and could break this range
EUR/USD rolled over from 1.1620 to the 1.1325 low in late June, then stabilised into a multi-day range between the 1.1390 pivot and the 1.1475 cap. ATR(14) has compressed and the EMAs have flattened as price grinds sideways near the top of that range; the soft EZ inflation / ECB-pause backdrop keeps upside contained. Higher lows have formed off 1.1325 but the recovery has yet to clear range resistance.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1475, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1390 pivot opens the path back toward the 1.1325 range floor
close above 1.1475 range cap needed to extend the recovery toward 1.1500
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC is the dominant near-term driver and could break this range
05:02 UTC
Range-bound after June downtrend, drifting lower · RSI 41 · price 1.13983
Sideways range, lower high in place, testing range base.
EUR has been July's weakest G10 currency and price is boxed in a multi-week 1.1390-1.1475 range after the sharp mid-June slide to 1.1325. The 1.1475 top capped the last bounce and price is now rolling over toward the range base near 1.1390, with ATR(14) compressed around 20 pips signalling a coiled market. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the drift heavy into US CPI.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1475
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1390 reopens the downtrend toward 1.1210
Reclaim of 1.1475 needed to extend any bounce toward the range top
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Downtrend faded to range, rolling over · RSI 43 · price 1.13983
Multi-day range, lower highs into support.
The sharp mid-window impulse from 1.1615 down to 1.1325 gave way to a two-week range between 1.1390 support and the 1.1460 range top, with EUR the softest G10 on a confirmed ECB pause. Price is now grinding back toward range low on a sequence of lower highs, holding below EMA20 and EMA50. ATR has compressed as the range matured.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1460, 1.1475
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1390 reopens the downtrend toward 1.1210
Reclaim of 1.1460/1.1475 needed to extend any bounce
US CPI Tue 14 Jul 12:30 UTC could break the range in either direction
The slide from 1.16 stalled at the 1.1325 swing low three weeks back; since then price has carved a 1.1360–1.1450 range, with EUR the weakest G10 as soft German/French CPI cemented an ECB July pause. Price re-opened lower after the weekend gap and now sits in the lower half of the range below both EMAs. ATR(14) has compressed into the high-teens pips, consistent with the range read.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1475
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1450 range top opens the 1.1475 cap
Failure to hold 1.1390 range low exposes the 1.1325 swing low
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The mid-window slide from 1.1620 to 1.1325 has given way to a two-week 1.1390–1.1460 range, with higher lows tracing a shallow recovery. EUR remains July's soft G10 name after in-line German/French CPI cemented an ECB July pause, and the latest bar is slipping back toward the range floor with price now below both EMAs. ATR(14) is compressed, consistent with the coiled range.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1460, 1.1475
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1390 exposes the range floor and a retest toward the swing low
Close above 1.1475 signals a range breakout
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC is the week's key catalyst and could shift this read