EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Thursday, 16 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:02 UTC
Recovery within broader range · RSI 53 · price 1.1440
Higher lows since mid-window low, capped under range top.
Price has rebuilt a higher-low sequence off the 1.1325 range low and pushed back to the 1.1485 range top before this pullback to 1.1440, keeping the last three weeks framed as a broad 1.1325-1.1485 range. The move higher tracks hawkish-ECB repricing against a soft US PPI print, though the 1.1485-90 area rejected the latest attempt. ATR is moderate with EMA20 and EMA50 both below spot, consistent with the constructive recovery leg.
Support: 1.1405, 1.1377, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1485, 1.1520
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1485 range top opens the path to 1.1520 resistance
Loss of 1.1405 strong support breaks the higher-low sequence
Fri Eurozone final HICP + UoM sentiment could shift the range read
21:01 UTC
Range with upward tilt, momentum cooling · RSI 52 · price 1.1440
Higher lows since the 1.1325 low, capped below 1.1485.
EURUSD has carved higher lows since the 1.1325 trough, but the last push to 1.1482 was rejected and price has slipped back to mid-range near 1.1440. The move fits a hawkish-ECB vs soft-US-PPI backdrop that keeps EUR constructive above 1.1405 while a USD bounce caps the range top around 1.1485. ATR is steady, so this reads as a multi-day range rather than a trending leg.
Support: 1.1405, 1.1377
Resistance: 1.1485, 1.1520
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1485 opens the path to 1.1520 resistance
Failure to hold 1.1405 invalidates the higher-low structure
Michigan sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC and Eurozone final HICP could shift this read
17:02 UTC
Recovering, range-bound near top · RSI 51 · price 1.14452
Multi-week range, higher lows off the 1.1325 base.
EURUSD has spent three weeks ranging, recovering from the 1.1325 base and printing higher lows back toward the 1.1485 range top. The last four bars stalled and rejected 1.1485, easing to 1.1445 with RSI flat near 50 — hawkish-ECB chatter and soft US inflation underpin, but the range top has yet to give way. ATR sits mid-regime, no compression squeeze signal.
Support: 1.1405, 1.1377, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1485, 1.1520
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1485 opens the path to 1.1520 resistance
Failure to hold 1.1405 support reopens the 1.1325 range low
German final HICP Fri 09:00 UTC could shift the read
17:01 UTC
Recovering within range, testing range top · RSI 54 · price 1.14452
Higher lows since mid-window trough, capped near 1.1485.
EUR/USD has rebuilt a series of higher lows off the mid-window trough near 1.1325 and pushed into the 1.1485 range top, where the latest H4 spike to 1.1482 saw rejection back to 1.1445. Price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the constructive tone that hawkish-ECB chatter has underpinned, though the pair remains pinned below the range top. ATR(14) around 24 pips reflects a steady, non-explosive advance rather than a fresh trend leg.
Support: 1.1405, 1.1377
Resistance: 1.1485, 1.1520
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1485 range top opens the path to 1.1520 resistance
Failure to hold 1.1405 range low breaks the higher-low structure
German final HICP Fri 09:00 UTC could shift this read
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 64 · price 1.14689
Higher lows since mid-window, breakout above prior base.
Higher-low structure intact since the 1.1325 swing low mid-window, with price breaking back above the 1.1440 base to print 4-week highs near 1.1482. The leg is USD-led — back-to-back soft US CPI/PPI misses have unwound Fed hike bets, lifting EUR toward the range top. Price holds above both EMAs and is now testing the 1.1485/1.1490 supply zone.
Support: 1.1440, 1.1405, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1482, 1.1490, 1.1520
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1490 range top opens the path toward 1.1520
Failure to hold the 1.1440 breakout base threatens the higher-low structure
Friday UoM inflation expectations could shift the USD-led read
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, testing range top · RSI 64 · price 1.14689
Higher lows since 1.1325, pressing the 1.1490 cap.
EURUSD has ground out a higher-low sequence off the 1.1325 base and is now pressing the 1.1485/1.1490 range top after the softer US CPI/PPI prints did the USD-led work this week. Price sits above both EMAs with ATR steady, and the last impulse from 1.1377 to 1.1482 keeps momentum firm into the cap. The zone at 1.1490 is the pivotal level — area to watch for rejection or a clean break toward 1.1520.
Support: 1.1405, 1.1377, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1490, 1.1520
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1490 opens the path toward 1.1520
Rejection at 1.1490 with failure to hold 1.1405 reopens 1.1377
Friday UoM inflation expectations could reprice USD and shift this read
Higher lows since mid-window base, breakout underway.
EURUSD has recovered off the mid-window base near 1.1325 in a series of higher lows, and pushed to fresh 4-week highs above the 1.1460/70 zone after back-to-back soft US CPI/PPI prints repriced the Fed dovishly. The advance cleared prior resistance around 1.1442, now the first support on any pullback, with the swing high at 1.1482 the immediate ceiling. ATR sits mid-range, consistent with a steady grind rather than an expansion.
Support: 1.1442, 1.1400, 1.1378
Resistance: 1.1482, 1.1500, 1.1542
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
A close above 1.1482 then 1.1500 opens the path toward 1.1542
Failure to hold 1.1442 questions the breakout and reopens 1.1400
09:01 UTC
Uptrend resuming after multi-day range · RSI 64 · price 1.14691
Higher low off 1.1325, testing range highs.
EUR/USD carved a higher low at 1.1325 and has since ground back to the top of the multi-week range, breaking above 1.1460 as back-to-back US CPI/PPI misses repriced the Fed and pressured the dollar. Price sits above both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI near 64, momentum constructive without being stretched. The 1.1460/70 zone flagged as a ceiling has given way; 1.1500 psych is the next area to watch.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1380, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1476, 1.1500, 1.1542
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 1.1500 opens the path to 1.1542 then 1.1592
Failure to hold 1.1420 EMA20 support reopens the 1.1380 range mid
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An oil-led USD bid risks a fade back toward 1.1360/80
05:01 UTC
Sideways range, edging to top · RSI 61 · price 1.14659
Two-week range, testing cap.
EUR/USD has been pinned in a 1.1410-1.1475 range for roughly two weeks, with the soft US CPI/PPI misses dragging the USD and pushing price back up to probe the 1.1475/82 cap. The latest bar stalled at 1.1474 and closed near 1.1466, leaving the range ceiling intact after a shallow rejection. ATR is moderate and higher lows have built off the 1.1324 base, keeping price above both EMAs.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1382, 1.13242
Resistance: 1.1475, 1.1482, 1.15279
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1475 range cap opens the path toward 1.1528
Failure to hold 1.1410 range floor opens 1.1382 then 1.1324
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could break the range read
05:01 UTC
Recovery, testing range top · RSI 61 · price 1.14659
Higher lows since mid-window base, pressing the 1.1470 cap.
Price has ground higher-lows off the 1.1325 base and is now probing the 1.1460/70 cap that has held all week, with the latest push tagging 1.1482 before closing back at 1.1466. The soft US CPI/PPI misses trimmed the USD and lifted EUR into the top of its 1.1390-1.1475 band. ATR(14) sits moderate and price holds above both EMAs, but the cap remains the defining structural line.
Support: 1.1440, 1.1410, 1.1390
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.1482
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1482 confirms a range break and opens the path higher
Rejection back below 1.1470 keeps the range read intact
Failure to hold 1.1410 pivot exposes the 1.1390 range floor
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Recovery, pressing range top · RSI 64 · price 1.14701
Multi-week range, higher lows since 1.1325.
EUR/USD has ground higher within a multi-week 1.1325–1.1475 range, carving higher lows off the early-month range base at 1.1325. The last two bars pushed into the 1.1475 range cap, poking the 1.1482 swing high intrabar as soft US CPI/PPI kept the dollar heavy. ATR is steady rather than expanding — a close above 1.1475 is needed to confirm a range break.
Support: 1.1440, 1.1390, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1475, 1.1482
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1475 confirms range break above the cap
Rejection at 1.1475/1.1482 keeps price inside the 1.1325–1.1475 range
Loss of 1.1390 range floor opens the path toward 1.1210
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Recovery, testing range top · RSI 64 · price 1.14701
Higher lows since mid-June, capped by range top.
EURUSD carved a double bottom off the mid-June lows near 1.1325 and has traced higher lows since, with the pair boxed in a 1.1390–1.1475 range for roughly two weeks. The latest bar probed 1.1482, edging past the range top, on the back of soft US CPI/PPI prints capping the dollar. Price holds above the 1.1440 pivot and both EMAs, though ATR remains moderate.
Support: 1.1440, 1.1390, 1.1377
Resistance: 1.1475, 1.1482, 1.1528
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1475 range top confirms range break, opens 1.1528
Failure to hold 1.1440 pivot returns price into the range mid
German CPI 08:00 UTC and US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could shift this read