21:01 UTC
Downtrend, counter-trend rebound underway · RSI 58 · price 1.12382
Lower highs/lower lows from 1.1495 to 1.1113; rebound broke the downtrend line, capped below 1.1269/1.1285.
The three-week sequence of lower highs and lower lows from 1.1495 ended in a 16-month low at 1.1113. The rebound that followed broke the downtrend line and reclaimed both EMAs as the USD pulled back on the AI-driven equity sell-off, even with hot US PPI and retail data. Supply capped the move at the 1.1269 rebound high, just under the 1.1285 prior high. Price is now holding around the 78.6% level of the 1.1276–1.1113 fib, with ATR(14) near 33 pips, a moderate rather than expanding regime.
Support: 1.1214, 1.11883, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.12691, 1.12851
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 1.1285 prior high would print the first higher high since early October and break the lower-high sequence
- Failure to hold the fib 61.8 near 1.1214, then the 1.1188 higher low, would put the 16-month low at 1.1113 back in focus
- US housing starts/permits Tue Oct 20 and S&P Global PMIs Fri Oct 23 could materially shift the USD leg of this read
- ECB Lane Mon/Wed and ZEW Tue are secondary EUR risks; price acceptance back below the downtrend line would mark the breakout as failed