Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:02 UTC
Rebound from 16m low stalled, gapped lower · RSI 45 · price 1.12109
Higher-lows sequence broken by Sunday gap; price recovering toward 38.2% fib.
Wednesday's drop to the 1.1113 16m low reversed into a rebound that built higher lows through Thursday and Friday, topping at the 1.1269 week high in Friday's London session as the AI-linked equity sell-off weighed on USD. NY hours Friday faded the move to 1.1212, and Sunday's open gapped about 48 pips below the 1.1238 prior close to a 1.1190 weekly open. The gap broke the higher-lows line and briefly printed a 1.1180 gap low before recovering to 1.1211 at the 38.2% fib, still under EMA(20) near 1.1229 and the ema50 near 1.1218, with RSI(14) at 44.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
- Failure to hold the 1.1190 weekly open and the 1.1180 gap low exposes the 50–61.8% fib zone down to 1.1173
- H1 close above the ema50 at 1.1218 and a fill to the 1.1238 prior close would put the higher-lows line back in play, with the 1.1269 week high beyond
- A break below 1.1173 brings the 1.1113 16m low back into focus
- ECB's Lane and Elderson on Monday and US housing starts/permits Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Recovering uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 54 · price 1.12382
Higher lows from Wednesday's week low; Friday high rejected, price back on EMA20.
EUR/USD has printed higher lows since Wednesday's 1.1113 week low, a 16-month low. The Asia-session rally into Thursday and Friday's London push to the 1.1269 week high came on the AI-linked USD pullback, which persisted even though US data ran hot. NY hours on Friday rejected that high and dipped to the 1.1212 swing low, close to the 38.2% of the Wed–Fri rally fib, before the close recovered onto EMA(20) near 1.1234, just under the 1.1240 prior high. RSI(14) has eased from about 71 at the week high to 54, so momentum is cooling while the higher-low line still holds.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1188, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
- Hourly close below the 1.1212 swing low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the thu low at 1.1188 and the 1.1200 figure
- A sustained move back above the 1.1240 prior high and through the 1.1269 week high opens the 1.1285 fair value area
- Weekend IMF headlines and Monday's ECB speakers (Lane, Elderson) could gap the open away from the Friday close
- Tue 12:30 UTC US housing starts/permits test whether the USD keeps ignoring hot data; a renewed USD bid puts the 1.1113 week low back in view