EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Monday, 19 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:01 UTC
Recovery stalled, range-bound after weekend gap · RSI 49 · price 1.12128
Post-gap consolidation inside 1.1180–1.1234, lower highs and higher lows.
French unrest drove a bearish weekend gap from the 1.1238 friday close to a 1.1190 open. The Asia-session week low at 1.1180 held between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the wed-fri rally, and the London-open dip to 1.1186 was bought back within the hour. Since then, monday lower highs from the 1.1234 monday high have compressed price toward the 1.1202 ny low, with price just under a flattening EMA(20) and RSI(14) parked near 49. The gap is still unfilled and the prior high at 1.1269 is well out of reach.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1234 monday high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the friday close gap fill at 1.1238 in play, with the 1.1269 prior high above
Failure to hold the 1.1202 ny low and the 1.12 handle exposes the 1.1180 week low and the 61.8% retracement near 1.1172
A break below the rising lows line from the 1.1113 wed low would turn the wed-fri rally into a full retracement
German PPI (06:00 UTC) and ZEW (09:00 UTC) on Tuesday could break the range
French protest headlines and the OAT-Bund spread beyond ~150bp could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Rebound from midweek low stalled, gap lower into new week · RSI 48 · price 1.1213
Monday range 1.1180–1.1234 below Friday close, lower highs from 1.1269.
The rally from Wednesday's swing low at 1.1113 to Friday's week high at 1.1269 came on dovish Warsh remarks and softer USD. It was undercut by a Sunday-open gap lower as French unrest and a 150bp-plus OAT-Bund spread hit the euro. The London-open dip to 1.1186 reversed back above the 1.12 psych level, holding near the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday-Friday rally, and the Monday low at 1.1180 remains intact. Since then price has ranged below the unfilled gap to the 1.1238 Fri close, capped by a lower-highs line from 1.1269. It has settled just under the H1 ema20 at 1.1216 with RSI(14) flat near 48 and ranges compressing through the NY session.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1238 Fri close fills the gap and breaks the lower-highs line, putting the 1.1269 week high back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.12 psych level and the 1.1180 monday low exposes the 50% fib near 1.1191 and then the 1.1113 swing low
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.1216 on a closing basis would end Monday's drift lower inside the range
ZEW sentiment Tue 09:00 UTC and OAT-Bund spread headlines vs 150bp could materially shift this read
Post-gap compression: lower highs over higher lows.
Last week's dominant impulse ran from Wednesday's 1.1113 low to Friday's London high at 1.1269. NY selling into Friday's close and Monday's gap lower on French protests and an OAT-Bund spread above 150bp unwound part of that move. Since the gap to the 1.1180 weekly low, price has compressed between that level and the 1.1234 weekly high, with the London open dip to 1.1186 rejected and the gap to Friday's 1.1238 close still unfilled. Price now sits on the rising higher-lows line and the 38.2% retracement near 1.1209, just under the ema20 near 1.1216, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1186, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.1234, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1200 round number and the higher-lows line exposes the london low at 1.1186 and the weekly low at 1.1180, near the 50% retracement
H1 close above the lower-highs line and the ema20 near 1.1216 reopens the weekly high at 1.1234 and the gap fill at 1.1238
Acceptance above 1.1238 would put the prior high at 1.1269 back in focus
German ZEW at Tue 09:00 UTC and French spread headlines could materially shift this read
US housing starts and permits Tue 12:30 UTC are a secondary USD risk inside the compression
20:01 UTC
Pullback within last week's rally, momentum fading · RSI 45 · price 1.12113
The week opened with a roughly 48-pip gap down from Friday's 1.1238 close as French unrest pushed the OAT-Bund spread past 150bp, printing the week low at 1.1180 in the Asia session. Price recovered to a Monday high at 1.1234, short of the gap fill. It then dropped to 1.1186 at London open, held above the week low and the fib 50% of the 1.1113–1.1269 rally, and drifted to a ny low at 1.1202. Price now sits near 1.1211, around the 38.2% retracement, below EMA(20) near 1.1218 and EMA(50). RSI(14) is around 45, and Monday's swings form lower highs over higher lows.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1191, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.1234 monday high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.1238 gap fill and the 1.1269 prior high
Loss of the 1.1202 ny low puts the fib 50% at 1.1191 and the 1.1180 week low back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1180 week low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 61.8% near 1.1172
Tue 09:00 UTC ZEW and the OAT-Bund spread versus 150bp could materially shift this read
Higher low from Wednesday intact; Monday range 1.1180–1.1234 under Friday's close.
Soft USD lifted the pair from Wednesday's 1.1113 low (wed low) to the 1.1269 friday high. Monday opened with a gap below Friday's 1.1238 close on French unrest and spread widening, but the 1.1180 week low held between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of that rally, and the London-open dip to 1.1186 was bought back. Price is now chopping between the 1.1202 ny low and the 1.1234 Monday high, just under the ema20 at 1.1219, with RSI(14) at 46 and the Monday highs drifting lower.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1238 completes the gap fill and puts the 1.1269 friday high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1180 week low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.1113 wed low
Loss of the 1.1202 ny low keeps the lower-highs pattern from Monday's session in control
ZEW sentiment Tue 09:00 UTC and French OAT/Bund spread headlines could materially shift this read
US housing starts/permits Tue 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
Gap-down range 1.1180–1.1234 inside Wed–Fri swing.
The NY-session flush to the 1.1113 Wed low reversed through Thursday's Asia session and extended to a 1.1269 week high Friday as the USD softened on the AI-trade unwind and Warsh comments. French unrest gapped EUR lower into Monday's open. The gap has not filled back to the 1.1238 Fri close, and Monday's highs have stepped lower since. Demand absorbed the London-open dip near the 1.1180 Monday low, but price now sits under the EMA20 around 1.1217 at the 38.2% fib of the Wed–Fri rally, with the NY low at 1.1202 the nearest floor and RSI(14) back in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.12023, 1.11803, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.1217, 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1180 Monday low breaks the gap-down range and exposes the 1.1113 Wed low
Reclaim of EMA20 and a fill of the 1.1238 Fri close gap reopens the 1.1269 week high
Failure to hold the 1.1202 NY low puts the 50% fib near 1.1191 in play
ZEW sentiment Tue 09:00 UTC and French OAT/Bund spread headlines could materially shift this read
Post-gap range 1.1180–1.1234 capped by lower highs from week high.
EUR/USD gapped lower at Monday's open on French protest and fiscal risk, from Friday's 1.1238 close to the 1.1190 area. It has since ranged between the Monday low at 1.1180, which absorbed both the open and the London open flush, and the Monday high at 1.1234, with a lower-highs line from Friday's 1.1269 week high capping each bounce. Through NY hours price has slipped back under the EMA(20) near 1.1217 and the EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 43. It now sits on the 38.2% fib of last week's 1.1113–1.1269 rally, just above the 1.1200 round number.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1217, 1.1234, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1180 Monday low breaks the range floor and opens the 50–61.8% fib zone toward 1.1172
H1 close above 1.1234 Monday high and the lower-highs line targets the 1.1238 gap fill, with the 1.1269 week high next
ZEW sentiment Tue 09:00 UTC and German PPI 06:00 UTC could break the range in either direction
Unscheduled French political or OAT/Bund spread headlines remain the main gap risk
Loss of 1.1200 round number with RSI(14) under 40 shifts focus to the week low at 1.1113
Lower highs from 1.1269, range above 1.1186 london low.
Monday opened about 48 pips below Friday's 1.1238 close as French unrest hit EUR. The Asia-session rebound stalled at 1.1234, just short of the gap fill. The London-open flush to the 1.1186 london low held near the 50% fib of last week's 1.1113–1.1269 impulse and was reversed within two bars. Price now chops around the 1.1212 friday low, just under EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 46 and lower highs capping from the 1.1269 prior high.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1186, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.1212 friday low reopens the 1.1186 london low
Failure to hold 1.1186 and the 50% fib exposes the 1.1113 prior low
Close above 1.1238 completes the gap fill and breaks the lower highs line, opening the 1.1269 prior high
ZEW sentiment Tue 09:00 UTC and French political or OAT-Bund spread headlines could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Rebound stalled, flat around EMAs · RSI 47 · price 1.1221
1.1180–1.1234 Monday range below an unfilled weekend gap; lower high vs Friday.
Wednesday's NY-session slide to the 1.1113 week low was fully retraced by Friday's London high at 1.1269 on a softer USD. French unrest then gapped EUR/USD down to a 1.1180 Monday low at the weekly open. Since then price has rotated in a 1.1180–1.1234 range just under the unfilled gap fill at 1.1238; a London-open dip to 1.1186 was bought back, and RSI(14) sits flat near 47 with price pinned to EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.1190, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1238 fills the weekend gap and breaks the lower highs line from Friday, reopening the friday high at 1.1269
Failure to hold the 1.1190 weekly open and 1.1180 monday low breaks the range floor and the rising support from the week low, with the fib 50% near 1.1191 already tested
A move back toward the 1.1113 week low would put the Wed–Fri rebound fib's 61.8% near 1.1173 in play first
Tue 09:00 UTC ZEW sentiment and French OAT/Bund spread headlines could materially shift this read
Higher low at Monday's 1.1180 inside a 1.1180–1.1234 Monday range.
The week low of 1.1113 printed during Wednesday's London-NY transition. EUR then rebounded from Thursday's Asia session and reached the 1.1269 Friday high as a soft USD and Warsh's no-urgency tone weighed on the dollar. Monday opened about 48 pips lower on French unrest at the 1.1180 Monday low and retraced most of the gap, but stalled at the 1.1234 Monday high, just under Friday's 1.1238 close. A London-open dip to 1.1186 was rejected near the 50–61.8% zone of the Wed-Fri fib, and price now sits on EMA(20) with RSI(14) flat near 49 above the 1.1205 pullback low.
Support: 1.1205, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1234 monday high and the 1.1238 gap fill breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1269 friday high
Loss of the 1.1205 pullback low puts the 1.1180 monday low and the higher-lows line back under test
Failure to hold the 1.1180 monday low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1113 week low
German PPI (Tue 06:00 UTC) and ZEW (Tue 09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
A further widening of the French OAT/Bund spread beyond 150bps could revive Monday's gap-down pressure
13:01 UTC
Rebound from 16m low, stalling below gap fill · RSI 53 · price 1.1226
Range 1.1180–1.1269 since Thursday, lower high Monday.
EUR/USD gapped about 48 pips lower at Monday's open on French fiscal stress, but demand stepped in at 1.1180 during the Asia session. A London-open drop to the 1.1186 swing low saw rejection and was reclaimed into the NY open, with both lows holding near the 50% retrace of the Wed–Fri rally from the 1.1113 16m low. Price sits marginally above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 53, while Monday's 1.1234 high stalls just under the 1.1238 gap fill, below a lower-high line from Friday's 1.1269 week high.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1186, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1238 gap fill breaks the lower-high line and puts the 1.1269 week high back in view
Loss of the 1.1186 swing low and Monday's 1.1180 low breaks the 50% retrace and exposes 1.1151 and the 1.1113 16m low
Repeated H1 closes back below the ema20 at 1.1222 would shift the read toward the lower half of the range
German PPI Tue 06:00 UTC and ZEW Tue 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
French OAT/Bund spread headlines remain the dominant driver behind any further gap risk
12:02 UTC
Rebound stalled, gap lower at the weekly open · RSI 49 · price 1.12191
Lower highs since Friday's peak; 50% retracement held on Monday.
Last week's rebound ran from Wednesday's 1.1113 week low to Friday's 1.1269 week high, then faded into Friday's NY session. EUR/USD gapped about 48 pips lower at Monday's Asia open on French spread stress. The gap fill stalled at 1.1234, short of Friday's 1.1238 close. The London open push to 1.1186 (monday low) tested Thursday's 1.1188 low and the 50% retracement of the Wed–Fri impulse, and the push was rejected. Price now sits on EMA(50) just under the ema20 at 1.1221, above the 38.2% fib at 1.1209, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 1.1209, 1.1186, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1221, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.1238 gap fill breaks the lower highs from the week high and brings 1.1269 back into view
Failure to hold the 1.1186 monday low breaks the 50% retracement and exposes 1.1151, then the 1.1113 week low
Repeated closes below the ema20 at 1.1221 with the 38.2% fib at 1.1209 giving way would confirm the gap is being extended rather than filled
German PPI and ZEW on Tuesday (06:00/09:00 UTC) plus French OAT-Bund spread headlines could materially shift this read
11:01 UTC
Rebound stalling, gap-down range below EMAs · RSI 43 · price 1.12069
Gap-down range 1.1180–1.1234, lower highs from 1.1269.
Wednesday's 12:00 UTC selloff set the 16m low at 1.1113. A Thursday Asia-session rally and a Friday London push then carried price to the 1.1269 prior high as the AI-equity selloff drained USD support. Monday gapped about 48 pips lower on French protest and OAT-Bund spread stress. The 1.1180 weekly low held near the 50% retracement of the Wednesday–Friday rally, and a London-open dip to 1.1186 drew a quick rejection back above the 1.1190 weekly open. Price at 1.1207 now sits under the EMA20/EMA50 cluster near 1.1221, with RSI(14) around 43 and a line of lower highs from Friday's peak capping rebounds below the 1.1238 gap fill.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1221, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1180 weekly low breaks the 50% retracement hold and exposes the 1.1113 16m low
Sustained trade back above the ema20 and the 1.1238 gap fill clears the lower highs line and reopens the 1.1269 prior high
Tue 09:00 UTC ZEW plus French political headlines, with the OAT-Bund spread holding above 150bp, could materially shift this read
Failure to reclaim the 1.1190 weekly open on a retest keeps the gap-down range intact
Lower highs from Friday's peak; Monday range 1.1180–1.1234 after gap down.
The week's dominant leg was the rebound from Wednesday's NY-session low at the 1.1113 prior wk low to the 1.1269 prior wk high in Friday's London session. That high faded in NY and gave way to a Monday gap lower on French unrest and an OAT-Bund spread above 150bp. Asia filled most of the gap to the monday high at 1.1234, short of Friday's 1.1238 close, and the London-open drop to 1.1186 met demand at the weekly open and the 50% retracement. Price sits at 1.1213, under the ema20 near 1.1220 with RSI(14) at 43, holding the Monday range beneath a line of lower highs.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1234, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close below the weekly low at 1.1180 breaks the Monday range and exposes the 61.8% retracement near 1.1173, then 1.1151
Close above the monday high at 1.1234 completes the gap fill to 1.1238 and breaks the lower highs line, with the prior wk high at 1.1269 above
Loss of 1.1151 brings the prior wk low at 1.1113 back into view
French OAT-Bund spread headlines and Tuesday's 09:00 UTC ZEW could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Rebound stalling, pressure back to the downside · RSI 38 · price 1.11933
Weekend gap lower; lower high under 1.1269, testing 1.1186 base.
Last week's dominant swing was Wednesday's London-NY transition slide to the 16m low at 1.1113. A late-NY and Asia-led rebound followed, reaching the week high at 1.1269 on Friday as Fed pause pricing and AI-related equity weakness softened the USD. Monday opened about 48 pips below Friday's close, and the Asia recovery stalled at 1.1234 (asia high) short of a gap fill, leaving a lower high. The London open then dropped price back to the monday low at 1.1186 on renewed French fiscal stress, where it sits on Thursday's low and the 50% retracement of the rebound, below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1234, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close below the monday low at 1.1186 breaks the post-Wednesday range base and opens 1.1151, then the 16m low at 1.1113
Recovery above ema20 (~1.1222) and the asia high at 1.1234 would put the weekend gap back in play and neutralise the lower-high read
A move through the lower highs line toward the week high at 1.1269 would revive the rebound structure
Tue 09:00 UTC ZEW sentiment and unscheduled French fiscal headlines (OAT/Bund >150bp) could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Rebound stalling below week high; flat after Monday gap · RSI 50 · price 1.12256
Post-gap compression 1.1217–1.1234 under lower highs from 1.1269.
Wednesday's slide into the NY session to 1.1113 reversed during Thursday's Asia session, and the rebound extended in Friday's London session to a 1.1269 week high before NY hours pulled it back. Monday opened with a gap of roughly 48 pips lower on weekend French unrest and wider OAT-Bund spreads, then recovered most of it in the first hour. Price has since compressed between the 1.1217 London low and the 1.1234 Monday high. It sits marginally below EMA(20) near 1.1228 and above EMA(50) near 1.1222, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and a series of lower highs capping each push since Friday.
Support: 1.12173, 1.12094, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12344, 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1238 completes the gap fill and puts the 1.1269 week high back in play, breaking the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1217 London low exposes the fib 38.2% of the 1.1113–1.1269 rebound at 1.1209, then the 1.1180 gap low
German PPI (06:00 UTC) and ZEW (09:00 UTC) on Tuesday could break the compression
French spread headlines remain the unscheduled risk that could reopen the gap low
07:02 UTC
Rebound from Wednesday low stalled; flat after Monday gap · RSI 51 · price 1.12246
Post-gap consolidation between EMA50 and Friday close, lower high under 1.1269.
The week's dominant move was the rebound from Wednesday's 1.1113 low, with the AI-driven USD sell-off lifting price to the 1.1269 week high on Friday before NY-session selling. Monday opened with a ~48-pip gap lower on French fiscal stress, and the Asia session recovered to a 1.1234 monday high. Price now sits marginally under EMA(20), just above the ema50 at 1.1221, with RSI(14) flat near 51 and the fri close at 1.1238 left unfilled overhead.
Support: 1.1221, 1.1209, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1234 monday high and the 1.1238 fri close fills the gap and breaks the lower highs line, reopening the 1.1269 week high
Failure to hold the ema50 and the 38.2% fib of the Wed-Fri rebound at 1.1209 exposes the 1.1180 gap low
ZEW sentiment Tue 09:00 UTC and US housing starts Tue 12:30 UTC could shift this read; French OAT/Bund spread headlines remain an unscheduled risk
Higher lows since Wednesday; Monday gap nearly filled below Friday close.
Wednesday's NY-session flush to the 1.1113 week low was fully reversed by Friday's London high at 1.1269, before a NY pullback to the 1.1212 Friday low. Monday opened with a ~48-pip gap lower to 1.1180 as French yields hit 4.85% and the USD caught an early safe-haven bid. That gap has been retraced through Asia as the dollar faded on AI-investment worries, leaving price pinned on EMA(20) near 1.1229 and the 23.6% level of the Wed-Fri rebound, just under the 1.1238 Friday close, with RSI(14) flat at 51.
Support: 1.12122, 1.11803, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1238 Friday close completes the gap fill and puts the 1.1269 week high back in play
Failure back below the 1.1212 Friday low reopens the 1.1180 gap low and the higher-lows line
A break of the 1.1180 gap low undercuts the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.1113 week low
Elderson remarks at 06:00 UTC and French OAT-Bund spread headlines beyond 150bp could shift this read
Tue German PPI/ZEW and US housing data are the next scheduled catalysts
V-shaped rebound off false break; lower high under 1.1269, gap fill pending.
Wednesday's NY-session break to the 1.1113 16-month low failed. Thursday's and Friday's Asia sessions drove the recovery to the 1.1269 friday high as an AI-led USD sell-off narrowed spreads. French spread stress opened Monday with a ~48-pip gap down, but the 1.1180 gap low held just under the 50% fib of the week's rally, and Asia has since reclaimed the ema20 near 1.1228. Price now sits a few pips below Friday's 1.1238 close, the gap fill level, with lower highs from the friday high capping the rebound and RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.1228, 1.1212, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1238 completes the gap fill and puts the 1.1269 friday high and lower-highs line back in focus
Loss of the 1.1212 friday low reopens the 1.1180 gap low and the 50% fib near 1.1191
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC today and Tuesday's ZEW at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Further OAT/Bund widening beyond 150bp is the main headline risk to the gap recovery