21:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 41 · price 1.12297
Lower highs from the late-August peak; two-week range 1.1113–1.1285.
The dominant downtrend has run since the 21 Aug peak at 1.1711, with price breaking the 1.1580–1.1650 shelf in mid-September and printing lower highs into October, below a falling EMA(50). Since 1 Oct the pair has compressed into a range between 1.1113 and 1.1285. Demand has repeatedly appeared at the 1.1150 range floor, while supply has capped the bounce high at 1.1269. Fed Chair Warsh's dovish-leaning remarks drove last week's first weekly gain in six weeks, but French OAT-Bund spread stress kept the rebound below the 23.6% retracement and the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1285, 1.1341
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.1285 prior high and the lower-highs trendline would break the October sequence and open the 38.2% fib at 1.1341
- Daily close below the 1.1113 swing low would confirm a lower-low and resume the downtrend
- Repeated tests of the 1.1150 range floor without a close below keep the consolidation read intact
- OAT-Bund spread moves around 150bp and Tuesday's ZEW could materially shift this read
- Friday's US S&P Global PMIs are the main USD catalyst for the week