21:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading · RSI 39 · price 1.1215
Lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 20 peak; compressing between 1.1113 and 1.1269.
The downtrend from the Aug 20 high at 1.1711 accelerated after mid-September's break of the 1.1570–1.1650 shelf. Price is printing a clean chain of lower highs from the 1.1498 sept high, capped by a lower-highs trendline, and holds below a falling EMA(50). The last three weeks have compressed into a 1.1113–1.1269 range, with each new low only marginally deeper. The bounce off the 1.1113 swing low came as USD eased from 18-month highs on lower oil and yields, while French spread stress has capped EUR follow-through near the 1.1269 swing high.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1341, 1.1498
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.1269 swing high and the lower-highs trendline would break the lower-high sequence and open the 38.2% fib at 1.1341
- Failure to hold the 1.1113 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1000 round number
- Lagarde speaks Wed Oct 21 at 16:30 UTC; growth-risk or French-spread commentary could materially shift this read
- US S&P Global PMIs on Fri Oct 23, then next week's FOMC, are the USD-side catalysts for a break of the 1.1113–1.1269 range
- Only a recovery through the 1.1498 sept high would undo the lower-highs structure from the Aug peak