EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Post-spike fade, drifting lower into late session · RSI 33 · price 1.12273
Lower highs since 1.1260 false break, holding 1.1225 swing low.
The ZEW miss at London open knocked EUR to the 1.1204 day low. The NY rally on softer oil and USD then spiked to the 1.1260 day high, a false break of the 1.1250 range top that faded within the hour. Price has since slipped back below the 1.1239 post-NY high and sits on the 61.8% retrace of the NY rally near the 1.1225 swing low, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR at about 2.6 pips in thin late-session trade.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1213, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1225 swing low exposes the 1.1213 asian low and the 1.1204 day low
Recovery above the 1.1239 post-NY high puts the 1.1250 range top back in play
ECB Lane (04:15 UTC) and Nagel (07:15 UTC) remarks could shift the read into London open
NY false break above 1.1250 retraced to 61.8% fib; early Asia slipping below NY range.
The NY spike to the 1.1260 spike high, on the Iran-deal oil slide and soft US housing data, failed to hold the 1.1250 range cap. Price retraced to the 61.8% fib of the London low-to-spike move, where the 1.1225 ny pullback low formed. The early Asia session has slipped below the 1.1233–1.1239 NY range top, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR under 3 pips.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1260
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1225 ny pullback low and 61.8% fib exposes the 1.1204 london low.
A recovery above the 1.1239 ny range top restores the post-spike range, with the 1.1250 range cap and 1.1260 spike high above.
ECB Lane (04:15 UTC) and Nagel (07:15 UTC) ahead of Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
23:16 UTC
Range after rejected spike, drifting lower · RSI 38 · price 1.12276
Slipping below late-NY range, testing NY low.
Early Asia session, price is slipping out of the 1.1233–1.1239 late-NY range toward the 1.1225 NY low, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the London low–day high move. The NY spike to the 1.1260 day high, driven by lower oil and soft US housing data, did not hold above the 1.1250 range cap. The 1.1204 London low printed on the ZEW miss.
Support: 1.12252, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12389, 1.1250, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1225 (NY low / 61.8% fib) opens the path back toward the 1.1204 London low
Reclaim of the 1.1239 NY high restores the late-NY range read
Renewed push through the 1.1250 range cap would challenge the 1.1260 day-high rejection
ECB Lane 04:15 UTC and Nagel 07:15 UTC ahead of Lagarde 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Intraday range after failed NY spike, drifting lower · RSI 31 · price 1.12282
Back inside Asian range after a false break above 1.1250; testing 61.8% retrace.
The ZEW miss sent price to a 1.1204 London low. Lower oil and soft US housing data then drove a NY spike to the 1.1260 day high, but the push through the 1.1250 cap failed and price has bled back below the Asian high. Early Asia trades at 1.1228, below both EMAs and on the 61.8% retrace near the 1.1225 swing low, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1211, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1250, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1225 swing low and 61.8% retrace exposes the 1.1211 Asian low, then the 1.1204 London low
Recovery above the 1.1235 Asian high would neutralise the late-session drift
Only a hold above the 1.1250 cap would reverse the false-break read toward the 1.1260 day high
ECB Lane (04:15 UTC), Nagel (07:15) and Cipollone (08:00) could move EUR ahead of the London open
False break above 1.1250 cap; late-NY 1.1229–1.1239 range giving way in early Asia.
The ZEW miss set the London session low at 1.1204. In NY, the oil-led USD dip pushed the pair through the 1.1250 cap to a 1.1260 session high, a false break that faded back inside the range. Price is now slipping out of the late-NY 1.1229–1.1239 range in early Asia, toward the 1.1225 swing low (61.8% of the day's rally), with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1225 swing low breaks the 61.8% retracement and exposes the 1.1204 session low
Reclaim of the 1.1239 range top restores the late-NY range read
Another failure at the 1.1250 cap would extend this month's rejection pattern; acceptance above the 1.1260 session high would negate the false break
ECB speakers Lane 04:15 UTC, Nagel 07:15 and Cipollone 08:00, ahead of Lagarde 16:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Late-NY range 1.1230–1.1239 slipping lower into Asia open.
Buyers held a London low near 1.1206 twice. Oil-led USD softness and the US housing misses then drove an NY spike through the 1.1250 range top to 1.1260 that failed straight away. Price retraced to the 61.8% fib near the 1.1225 NY low and built a 1.1230–1.1239 late-NY range, and the first Asia-session bar has just slipped to its base.
Support: 1.12252, 1.12204, 1.1206
Resistance: 1.12389, 1.1250, 1.12603
What it said to watch
Hold above the 1.1225 ny low keeps the late-NY range intact; a break exposes the 1.1220 swing low and the 1.1206 london low
Reclaim of the 1.1239 ny high returns focus to the 1.1250 range top and 1.1260 spike high
ECB Lane at 04:15 UTC and Nagel at 07:15 UTC could move EUR into London open
US-Iran or oil headlines remain the main USD driver overnight
22:16 UTC
Flat after rejected NY spike, compressing · RSI 51 · price 1.12362
Tight post-NY range 1.1233–1.1239 inside the 1.1206–1.1260 day range.
The ZEW expectations miss knocked EUR/USD below the Asian range to a 1.1204 London low. Soft US housing data and lower oil then drove a NY spike to the 1.1260 session high, which was rejected back to a 1.1226 spike low near the 61.8% fib. Early Asia is compressing in a 1.1233–1.1239 range between the 38.2% and 50% levels, with RSI(14) neutral and ATR under 3 pips.
Support: 1.12328, 1.12256
Resistance: 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1233 range low exposes the 1.1226 spike low and 61.8% fib
A close above the 1.1239 range high reopens the 1.1245–1.1260 session high zone
ECB's Lane at 04:15 UTC and Nagel/Cipollone early London could break the Asia range; Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC is the larger risk
US-Iran or oil headlines remain the main USD-side driver of this range
Tight 1.1233–1.1239 range after NY spike fade, rising lows.
London sold off to the 1.1204 London low after the ZEW expectations miss. NY then reversed it as US-Iran headlines and soft housing data hit USD, spiking price to a 1.1260 day high that was rejected within the hour. Since the 1.1225 pullback low, which held near the 61.8% of the NY rally, price has printed rising lows and is now compressing between the 1.1233 range low and the 1.1239 late NY high in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 1.12328, 1.12252, 1.12059
Resistance: 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12389 late NY high breaks the compression and puts the 1.12603 day high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.12328 range low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 1.12252 pullback low
ECB's Lane (04:15 UTC) and Nagel (07:15 UTC) speak across Asia and the London open; Lagarde (Wed 16:30 UTC) is the bigger risk to this read
US-Iran headlines remain the main USD driver; a deal collapse lifting oil would undercut the NY rally structure
21:46 UTC
Post-NY consolidation after a rally and spike rejection · RSI 49 · price 1.1234
Tight range 1.1233–1.1239 above the 1.1225 pullback low; London low 1.1204 intact.
The ZEW expectations miss drove London down to a 1.1204 low. US housing misses and falling oil then powered a NY rally to a 1.1260 spike high, which drew a rejection that found demand at the 1.1225 pullback low, near the 61.8% of the NY rally. Price has gone flat after NY close in a 6-pip range between the 1.1233 range floor and the 1.1239 late NY high, with RSI neutral and ATR compressed below 3 pips.
Support: 1.1233, 1.1225, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1233 range floor exposes the 1.1225 pullback low; losing that undoes the 61.8% hold
Close above the 1.1239 late NY high reopens the 1.1260 spike high
ECB's Lane (04:15 UTC) and Nagel (07:15 UTC) ahead of London open could break the thin post-NY range
US-Iran headlines moving oil and yields remain the main USD driver overnight
21:31 UTC
Flat into rollover after NY spike and fade · RSI 52 · price 1.12357
Tight range above 61.8% retrace, higher lows since NY pullback.
London's ZEW-driven drop to the london low at 1.1204 was reversed in NY as weak US housing data and softer oil hit USD, with a spike to 1.1260 rejected and faded to the pullback low near 1.1225, the 61.8% retrace. Since then price has carved higher lows and is now compressing between the late NY low at 1.1233 and the range top at 1.1239, with ATR(14) shrinking toward 3 pips.
Support: 1.1233, 1.1225, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 range top reopens the 1.1250 area and the 1.1260 spike high
Failure to hold the late NY low at 1.1233 and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.1225 pullback low
Loss of 1.1225 would erase most of the NY recovery and put the 1.1204 london low back in view
ECB's Lane (04:15 UTC) and Nagel (07:15 UTC) ahead of Lagarde could break the Asian range
US-Iran deal headlines remain the swing factor for USD via oil and yields
21:16 UTC
Two-way intraday, compressing after NY spike · RSI 53 · price 1.12357
Post-NY consolidation 1.1225–1.1239 inside 1.1204–1.1260 day range.
London sold off to the 1.1204 london low on the ZEW expectations miss. The NY rally reversed it on weak US housing data and lower oil and yields, spiking to a 1.1260 ny high that was rejected. Since then price has held the fib 61.8% at 1.1225 and is coiling below the 1.1239 late ny high into the post-NY rollover, with ATR down to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.12255, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 late ny high (38.2% of the NY rally) reopens the 1.1260 ny high
Failure to hold the fib 61.8% at 1.1225 exposes the 1.1204 london low
ECB Lane (04:15 UTC) and Nagel (07:15 UTC) into London open could break the Asian range; Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC is the bigger risk
US-Iran deal headlines moving oil and yields remain the main intraday swing factor for USD
21:01 UTC
Flat, compressing after a rejected NY spike · RSI 53 · price 1.12353
Tight 1.1233–1.1239 range between 38.2% and 61.8% retrace of the day's move.
The ZEW miss pushed EUR through the Asian low to a London day low at 1.1204. In NY, soft US housing data and lower oil drove a spike to 1.1260, which was fully rejected. Price has held the 61.8% fib near 1.1225 and is compressing under the late NY high at 1.1239, with ATR down to about 3 pips into the close.
Support: 1.12252, 1.12135, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 late NY high (38.2% fib) breaks the compression and exposes the 1.1260 spike high
Failure to hold the 1.1225 61.8% fib reopens the asian low at 1.1214 and the day low at 1.1204
ECB's Lane at 04:15 and Nagel at 07:15 UTC, ahead of Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC, plus US-Iran deal headlines, could break the thin late-session range
Higher low at 61.8% fib, tight late-NY range 1.1233–1.1239.
London broke below the Asian range after the ZEW expectations miss and found the day low at 1.12041. NY reversed that move, and softer oil on US-Iran headlines drove a spike to 1.12603 that retraced to the 61.8% fib at 1.12252, where it held. After NY close, price is compressing between the range low at 1.12328 and the late NY high at 1.12389, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR(14) contracting to about 5 pips.
Support: 1.12328, 1.12252, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
Close above the late NY high at 1.12389 breaks the compression and exposes the spike high at 1.12603
Loss of the range low at 1.12328 reopens the 61.8% fib at 1.12252; failure there puts the day low at 1.12041 back in play
ECB's Lane (04:15 UTC), then Nagel and Cipollone around London open, could shift this read ahead of Lagarde
Higher lows under 1.1239 after NY spike faded to the 61.8% fib.
London broke the Asian range low on the ZEW miss, printing a london low at 1.1204. NY reversed it to a 1.1260 session high as oil and yields fell on US-Iran headlines, then the spike was rejected back to a 1.1225 swing low at the 61.8% fib. Late NY is compressing on a higher low at 1.1233 beneath the late high at 1.1239.
Support: 1.12328, 1.12252, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 late high reopens the 1.1260 session high
Break of the 1.1233 higher low and rising-lows trendline returns focus to the 1.1225 swing low
Loss of 1.1225 negates the 61.8% hold and exposes the 1.1212 pivot and 1.1204 london low
ECB Lane at 04:15 UTC and Nagel at 07:15 UTC fall inside the Asia-London transition
20:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, compressing after rejected NY spike · RSI 55 · price 1.12345
Higher lows inside late-NY range 1.1225–1.1239, below 1.1260 spike high.
London sold the ZEW expectations miss down to the london low at 1.1204. In NY, soft US housing data and lower oil on US-Iran headlines drove a spike to the 1.1260 session high, which was rejected and retraced to the 61.8% fib at 1.1225. Since then price has drifted in a tight higher-low sequence between 1.1233 and the 1.1239 late high into the close, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.12328, 1.12256, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 late high opens a retest of the 1.1260 session high
Break of the 1.1233 higher low and the higher-low trendline returns focus to the 61.8% fib at 1.1225
ECB's Lane at 04:15 UTC during Asia, then Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC, could reset this range; US-Iran headlines remain the oil/USD swing factor
20:01 UTC
Intraday up, consolidating after NY spike · RSI 58 · price 1.12357
Higher lows above 61.8% retrace, capped near 38.2%.
London sold off to the london low at 1.1204 on the ZEW expectations miss. US housing misses and lower oil drove an NY spike to the 1.1260 session high, which was rejected and faded to the 61.8% retrace at the 1.1225 swing low. Late NY is compressing between the 50% fib near 1.1232 and the late ny high at 1.1239 on a rising line of higher lows, with ATR down to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.12322, 1.12252, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 late ny high opens a retest of the 1.1260 session high
Break of the rising line and the 50% fib puts the 1.1225 swing low back in play; loss there exposes the london low at 1.1204
ECB's Lane at 04:15 UTC during Asia could break the late-NY compression
Higher lows off 61.8% fib, capped below late high.
The ZEW miss set the London zew low at 1.1204. US-hours Iran-deal reports and weak housing data then drove a spike high at 1.1260, and the pullback held the fib 61.8 at 1.1226. Price has since built a higher low chain at 1.1233, now holding just above the Asian high at 1.1235 but capped at the late high of 1.1239 in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 1.12333, 1.12256, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1233 higher low breaks the rising higher low line
Loss of the 1.1226 fib 61.8 exposes the 1.1204 zew low
Close above the 1.1239 late high reopens the 1.1260 spike high
ECB's Lane (04:15 UTC) and Nagel (07:15 UTC) ahead of Lagarde could shift the London open
US-Iran deal confirmation or collapse headlines remain the main USD swing factor overnight
19:31 UTC
Range after rejected NY spike · RSI 56 · price 1.12339
Spike to 1.1260 fully faded; late-NY compression 1.1225–1.1239.
The NY rally from 1.1206 ran into a spike high at 1.1260, driven by US-Iran headlines and soft US housing data, then was rejected. The pullback low at 1.1225 held near the 61.8% of the NY rally fib. Late in the NY session price is compressing around the 50% retracement near 1.1234, capped by the late ny high at 1.1239, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 1.12252, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close below the pullback low at 1.1225 breaks the post-spike range and exposes the London low at 1.1204
Close above the late ny high at 1.1239 reopens the spike high at 1.1260
ECB's Lane (04:15 UTC) and Nagel (07:15 UTC) speak ahead of Lagarde on Wed 16:30 UTC, which could shift the read from London open
19:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, grinding higher late NY · RSI 61 · price 1.12374
Higher lows off 1.1225 after the 1.1260 spike faded.
London's ZEW-driven dip to the london low at 1.1204 reversed in NY on soft US housing data and lower oil from US-Iran deal reports. That move spiked to 1.1260, then met rejection at the day high and pulled back to 1.1225. The fib 61.8 retrace of that move held at 1.1225, and late NY is now stair-stepping back above the asian high near 1.1235 to press the late ny high at 1.1239.
Support: 1.1235, 1.1225, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1239 late ny high opens a run back toward the 1.1260 day high
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 1.1235 asian high stalls the late-NY grind
Loss of the 1.1225 fib 61.8 exposes the london low at 1.1204
Thin NY-close and Asia liquidity, then ECB Lane (04:15 UTC) and Nagel (07:15 UTC) ahead of Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC, could shift this read
Higher lows off 61.8% fib, capped below 1.1240 lower high.
Lower oil and soft US housing data drove a spike to a 1.12603 session high at 14:30 UTC. Price was rejected there and faded to a 1.12252 swing low near the 61.8% fib, holding well above the 1.12041 day low set after the ZEW miss. Late NY has since printed higher lows along a rising trendline, with price back above the 1.1235 Asian high and RSI(14) at 63.
Support: 1.1235, 1.12252, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12403, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1240 lower high reopens the 1.12603 session high
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.1235 Asian high returns focus to the 1.12252 swing low; the 1.12041 day low sits below
ECB's Lane (04:15 UTC) and Nagel (07:15 UTC) ahead of Lagarde Wed, plus US-Iran oil headlines, could shift this read in Asia/London
18:46 UTC
Recovering after NY spike, momentum flattening · RSI 57 · price 1.12377
Post-spike pullback held 1.1225, grinding back toward Asian high.
London broke below the 1.1213–1.1235 Asian range to a 1.1204 day low after the ZEW expectations miss. NY reversed it as US-Iran deal reports pulled oil and yields lower alongside soft housing data, spiking to a 1.1260 NY high that was rejected. The fade held a 1.1225 swing low near the 61.8% of the rally, and late NY is grinding back to the Asian high between the 50% fib at 1.1233 and the 38.2% fib at 1.1240.
Support: 1.1233, 1.1225, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1260
What it said to watch
Close above the 38.2% fib at 1.1240 opens the path back to the 1.1260 NY high
Loss of the 50% fib at 1.1233 exposes the 1.1225 swing low; below there the rally retrace deepens toward the 1.1204 day low
Lane speaks at 04:15 UTC in Asia hours, then Nagel and Cipollone in London, ahead of Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC
US-Iran deal headlines can move oil and USD sharply off-hours
Tight 1.1225–1.1237 range below NY spike high, shallow higher lows.
London sold through the Asian range low to the 1.1204 london low before US-Iran deal headlines, lower oil and yields, and soft US housing data drove a NY-hours spike to a 1.1260 session high. That spike drew a rejection and faded to a 1.1225 pullback low at the 61.8% retrace. Late NY, after London close, price is compressing beneath the 1.1237 late high with a 1.1230 higher low and ATR(14) down to roughly 6 pips.
Support: 1.12303, 1.12252, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12368, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1237 late high opens the path back toward the 1.1260 session high
Break of the 1.1230 higher low and the 1.1225 pullback low (61.8%) reopens the 1.1204 london low
Overnight ECB speakers (Lane 04:15, Nagel 07:15 UTC) and US-Iran deal headlines could break the range during Asia or the London open
18:16 UTC
Recovering after NY spike, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 1.12348
Higher lows off 1.1225 after NY spike fade, capped near 1.1237.
London dropped to a 1.1204 london low around the soft ZEW release. NY then spiked to 1.1260 as US-Iran deal reports hit oil, yields and the USD, but met rejection at the spike high. The fade held at a 1.1225 pullback low near the 61.8% retrace, and after London close price is pressing the 1.1237 late high with ATR(14) back to roughly 6 pips.
Support: 1.12252, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12368, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1237 late high reopens the 1.1240-1.1260 spike high zone
Loss of the 1.1225 pullback low (61.8% retrace) puts the 1.1204 london low back in play
US-Iran headlines remain the swing factor; a collapse in talks would revive the oil and USD bid
ECB's Lane at 04:15 UTC lands in the Asia session ahead of Wednesday's Lagarde risk
18:01 UTC
Intraday up, recovering after NY spike rejection · RSI 62 · price 1.12366
Higher lows off 1.1225, retesting 1.1237 prior high.
London sold down to a 1.1204–1.1206 london low before NY lifted price to a 1.1260 session high on US-Iran deal reports that knocked oil and yields lower. The spike was rejected, but the ny pullback held at 1.1225, near the fib 61.8% of the London-low-to-NY-high leg. Late NY, after London close, has built higher lows back into the 1.1237 prior high, with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.12252, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12366, 1.12603
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1240 fib 38.2% opens the path back toward the 1.1260 session high
Break of the 1.1225 ny pullback and the higher lows line shifts focus to the 1.1206 london low
Conflicting US-Iran headlines: a denial of the deal reports could reverse the NY dollar leg
London took out the Asian low to a 1.1204 London low before NY broke higher on US-Iran headlines and soft US housing data, spiking to a 1.1260 session high that was rejected. The fade held twice at the 61.8% fib near 1.1225, and price is compressing just under the 1.1237 pre-spike high late in NY, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 1.12252, 1.12204, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12366, 1.1250, 1.12603
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1237 pre-spike high opens a retest of the 1.1250 round number and the 1.1260 session high
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 1.1225 exposes the 1.1220 NY dip low, then the 1.1204 London low
Conflicting US-Iran headlines can override the thin late-NY tape at any time. ECB's Lane at 04:15 UTC is the first scheduled risk in Asia.
NY spike to 1.1260 fully faded; tight 1.1225–1.1235 range just under the asian high.
The London ZEW drop to the 1.1204 day low reversed in NY, as US-Iran headlines and soft housing data knocked oil and yields lower. That lifted price through the 1.1235 asian high to a 1.1260 ny high, where it was rejected within two bars. Late NY is compressing in a 1.1225–1.1235 range between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the 1.1206–1.1260 leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1212, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1225 range low (61.8% retracement) exposes the 1.1212 pivot and then the 1.1204 day low
M15 close back above the 1.1235 asian high reopens the 1.1260 ny high
US-Iran headlines via oil remain the main driver during the Asia session
ECB's Lane at 04:15 UTC is the next scheduled EUR risk before London
Post-spike retrace to 61.8%, coiling 1.1225–1.1235.
The ZEW miss knocked EUR/USD to a 1.1204 day low in London. The NY rally off that low, driven by weak US housing data and US-Iran headlines hitting the USD, spiked to a 1.1260 NY high and was rejected sharply. After London close, price has held the 61.8% fib near 1.1225 and is coiling under the 1.1235 Asian high, flat on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 50.
Support: 1.12252, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 1.1225 exposes the 1.1204 day low
Close above the 1.1235 Asian high reopens the 1.1260 NY high
Oil and US-Iran headlines, plus ECB's Lane at 04:15 UTC, could shift the read
Failed break above Asian high, consolidating mid-range.
London slipped below the Asian low and set the 1.1204 London low around the ZEW miss. NY reversed it on soft US housing data and US-Iran headlines, a rally that spiked to the 1.1260 session high, but the break above the 1.1235 Asian high failed. Since London close price has held the 61.8% retracement of the NY rally, with a pullback low at 1.1225, and is flat at EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1211, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1260
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1235 Asian high reopens the 1.1260 session high
Failure to hold the 1.1225 pullback low exposes the 1.1211 Asian low, near the 1.1212 pivot, then the 1.1204 London low
A reversal in US-Iran or oil headlines could unwind the NY rally
ECB's Lane at 04:15 UTC Wed opens the ECB speaker run into Lagarde at 16:30 UTC
NY spike to 1.1260 rejected; lower highs into the 61.8% fib.
London swept the Asian range low to 1.1204 around the ZEW miss. NY then rallied on soft US housing data and US-Iran headlines, spiking to the ny high at 1.1260. After London close that spike was rejected, and price now hugs EMA20 just above the 61.8% fib at 1.1225, capped by the asian high at 1.1235; RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1212, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 1.1225 exposes the 1.1212 pivot and the london low at 1.1204
Reclaim of the asian high at 1.1235 needed to reopen a test of the ny high at 1.1260
US-Iran and oil headlines overnight could shift this read before ECB speakers from 04:15 UTC Wed
NY spike above the Asian high faded back into the 1.1226–1.1235 band.
London open slid to the 1.1204 london low on the ZEW expectations miss. NY hours reversed it on soft US housing data and US-Iran deal reports, with a spike through the 1.1235 asian high to the 1.1260 ny high. That spike has since been fully rejected, and price is now holding the fib 61.8 at 1.1226 in late NY trade, with ATR near 9 pips.
Support: 1.12256, 1.12204, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1226 fib 61.8 exposes the 1.1220 swing low, then the 1.1204 london low
Recovery back above the 1.1235 asian high would undo the false-break read and reopen the 1.1260 ny high
Unscheduled US-Iran headlines and oil swings remain the main intraday driver for USD
Failed extension above Asian high, retesting breakout zone.
NY broke the 1.1235 Asian high and spiked to a 1.1260 session high on the US housing misses. The spike was rejected and has faded to a retest of the Asian high zone, with the late low holding at the 61.8% fib of the NY rally near 1.1226. Earlier, London dipped to a 1.1204 London low before demand returned from the 1.1221 NY base. RSI(14) has cooled to ~50 and price is pinned to EMA20 after London close.
Support: 1.1226, 1.1221, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1240, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1226 61.8% fib and the 1.1221 NY base unwinds the NY breakout
Reclaim of the 1.1240 38.2% fib reopens the 1.1260 session high
Sustained trade back below the 1.1235 Asian high puts the 1.1204 London low back in range
US-Iran / oil headlines are unscheduled risk for the USD leg into Asia session
False break above Asian high, retrace to 61.8% of NY leg.
The NY session spike to the 1.1260 spike high came on US-Iran deal reports and soft US housing data. It was sold straight back through the 1.1235 Asian high, a false break, and price is now resting on the 61.8% fib of the 1.1206–1.1260 leg near EMA50. Earlier, London swept below the Asian low to 1.1204 before demand returned; RSI(14) is neutral at 47 and ATR is about 9 pips.
Support: 1.12267, 1.12204, 1.12133
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1250, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1220 swing low exposes the 1.1213 Asian low and the 1.1212 intraday pivot
Recovery back above the 1.1235 Asian high would neutralise the false-break read and bring the 1.1250 round number and 1.1260 spike high back into view
A reversal in US-Iran headlines or oil could undercut the US-hours EUR/USD bounce
ECB speakers from 04:15 UTC Wed, ahead of Lagarde at 16:30 UTC, could shift the read
The London close approaching at 16:00 UTC may thin follow-through
NY breakout above Asian high faded; lower highs from 1.1260, price testing breakout area.
London flushed from the 1.1235 Asian high to a 1.1204 london low as oil and DXY firmed. NY reversed it on weak US housing data and US-Iran compromise reports, spiking to a 1.1260 session high, but four bars of lower highs have pulled price back to the Asian high, which sits near the 50% fib and the rising support line from the London low.
Support: 1.1235, 1.1221, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1232 (Asian high / 50% fib) breaks rising support and exposes the 1.1221 swing low
Recovery above the 1.1240 lower high reopens the 1.1260 session high
London close at 16:00 UTC may thin follow-through; US-Iran or oil headlines remain the main swing factor
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from spike high · RSI 59 · price 1.12369
NY breakout above Asian high, now retesting the break level.
NY hours broke the Asian high at 1.1235 on US-Iran headlines that pulled oil and yields lower. The spike set a 1.1260 session high, then gave back more than half of the 1.1204–1.1260 leg. Price is now retesting the Asian high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib, late in the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.1235, 1.1232, 1.1226
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1260
What it said to watch
A close below the 50% fib at 1.1232, after failing to hold the asian high at 1.1235, turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.1226
M15 close back above 1.1250 psych reopens the 1.1260 session high
Oil and US-Iran headlines remain the swing factor for USD; ECB Lane at 04:15 UTC is the next scheduled EUR risk ahead of Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC
NY break above Asian high, then rejection at 1.1260 and pullback.
Reports of US-Iran diplomatic progress and soft US housing data weakened the dollar in NY hours, lifting EUR/USD off the 1.1204 london low, set after the ZEW miss. The move cleared the 1.1235 asian high and spiked to a 1.1260 session high, where it was rejected. The pullback is holding near the 38.2 fib of the NY rally around 1.1240, mid-NY session.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1235, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1235 asian high and the ny trendline would turn the breakout into a false break
Reclaim of the 1.1250 round number reopens the 1.1260 session high
No scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h; oil and US-Iran headlines remain the swing factor into and after London close
15:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from spike high · RSI 64 · price 1.12458
Higher lows since 1.1206; Asian high broken in NY.
The ZEW miss knocked the pair to a 1.1204 London low. Lower Treasury yields and soft US housing data then lifted EURUSD through the 1.1235 Asian high in the first hour of NY, printing a 1.1260 session high. Price is now slipping back under the 1.1250 round number, with RSI(14) cooling to about 64 and the higher-low trendline intact.
Support: 1.1235, 1.1228, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1260
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1235 asian high keeps the breakout read; a close back below it marks a false break
38.2% fib retrace of the 1.1206–1.1260 leg sits near 1.1240, just above the breakout level
Close above the 1.1260 session high resumes the higher-high chain
Break of the 1.1228 swing low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 1.1204 london low
No tier-1 data in the next 8h; Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC is the next EUR risk
NY breakout above Asian high, higher lows since London low.
The NY session reversed the ZEW-led London drop to 1.1204 and cleared the Asian high at 1.1236. The 14:15 UTC bar added 27 pips to a 1.1260 session high as the dollar slipped with yields. RSI(14) is near 77, and price is extended well above both EMAs, more than 3x ATR above the last swing low.
Support: 1.1236, 1.1228
Resistance: 1.1260, 1.1280
What it said to watch
Holding the 1.1236 asian high, near the 38.2% of the NY leg fib, keeps the breakout intact. A move back below it reads as a false break.
Failure at the 1.1228 swing low, which sits with the NY rising low trendline and the 61.8% retracement, unwinds the NY leg.
A close above the 1.1260 session high opens the 1.1280 range cap cited in the broader band.
Oil-driven USD bounces have reversed EUR/USD intraday. Lagarde on Wed 16:30 UTC is the next high-impact EUR risk.
14:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off the day low · RSI 57 · price 1.12303
Double bottom at 1.1204–06, HL chain capped at session high.
The post-ZEW drop to the 1.1204 day low in London, retested at 1.1206, formed a double bottom. EURUSD then cleared the 1.1219 neckline on softer US yields and the housing starts miss, peaking at a 1.1237 session high just above the Asian high. The pullback is holding above the 1.1228 swing low, with the higher-low trendline intact and RSI(14) at 57.
Support: 1.12279, 1.12204, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12366
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1237 session high clears the Asian high and extends the recovery leg.
A close below the 1.1228 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and opens the 50% fib of the recovery leg near 1.1221.
Failure to hold the 1.1220 higher low reopens the 1.1204 day low.
Oil-driven USD bounces (Brent ~$110) have reversed EUR gains intraday and could reshape the session range.
Higher low at 1.1220 after London double bottom; Asia high taken out.
The ZEW sentiment miss knocked EUR/USD to a 1.1204–1.1206 London low that held twice. The NY rally that followed, on the US housing starts miss and DXY slipping back below 102, set a higher low at 1.1220 and pushed through the 1.1235 Asia high to a 1.1237 session high. RSI(14) is near 62, not stretched.
Support: 1.1235, 1.1220, 1.1205
Resistance: 1.12366, 1.1250, 1.1280
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1235 Asia high would mark a false break and return price to the day's range
Loss of the 1.1220 higher low, near the 50% of the NY rally fib, breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.1205 London low
Clearing the 1.1250 round number puts the 1.1280 range top in view
US Pending Home Sales (14:00 UTC) and the French budget vote outcome could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 62 · price 1.12335
V-recovery off ZEW low; NY probing Asian high.
The ZEW sentiment miss at 09:00 UTC broke the Asian range low and printed 1.1204. A double low near 1.1205 held through London, and with DXY slipping below 102 the NY rally has tagged a session high at 1.1236, marginally above the Asian high, now being retested with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 1.1221, 1.1205
Resistance: 1.1236, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1236 session high clears the Asian high and opens the 1.1250 round number
Rejection at 1.1236 with a close back below the pullback low at 1.1221 (50% fib) breaks rally support and the higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.1205 double low reverts to the London downside read
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and today's French budget vote could jolt this read; Lagarde speaks Wed 16:30 UTC
13:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, capped below Asian high · RSI 59 · price 1.12245
London double bottom near 1.1205, NY higher low at 1.1220.
The ZEW sentiment miss knocked EUR/USD from 1.1233 to a 1.1204 London low. A second test near 1.1206 held, and the first hour of NY reclaimed 1.1222 to tag a 1.1230 NY high. The shallow pullback low at 1.1220 is holding below the 1.1235 Asian high, RSI(14) ~59.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1205
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1235 Asian high breaks the day's range and the top of the 1.1185–1.1235 band
Failure to hold the 1.1220 pullback low puts the 1.1205 london low back in focus
Rejection at the 1.1230 ny high would form a lower high under the Asian high
Pending Home Sales 14:00 UTC is minor; oil-driven USD bids have been swinging intraday
13:31 UTC
Choppy, lower highs since London · RSI 55 · price 1.12213
Asian range false break below, rebound capped under Asian high.
London broke below the 1.1213 asian low on the ZEW miss and set a 1.1205 session low. The Housing Starts miss lifted price to a 1.1230 rally high, which stalled under the 1.1235 asian high and extended the lower-highs sequence. Price is now at the 38.2% fib of that bounce near 1.1221, hugging EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) near 55 and ATR around 6 pips into the NY open.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1205
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1213 asian low exposes the 1.1205 session low
Break above the 1.1230 rally high and 1.1235 asian high invalidates the lower-highs read
Loss of the 50% fib near 1.1218 points to a fading bounce
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and today's French budget vote could shift this read
Double low at 1.1205 broken higher; NY high still below the Asia high.
London fell from the 1.1235 Asia high on the ZEW miss and French spread stress, putting in a double low at 1.1204–1.1206. Soft US housing and ADP data then drove an early-NY breakout to the 1.1230 NY high. Price is now stalling at the 61.8% fib retracement of that drop, with RSI(14) back to a neutral 53.
Support: 1.1219, 1.1205
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1230 NY high exposes the 1.1235 Asia high, the top of the Asian range
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.1219 puts the 1.1205 double low back in play
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and headlines from today's French budget vote could shift this read
Double bottom at 1.1204–1.1206, rebound pressing London range top.
The London drop around the ZEW miss broke the Asian low and tagged 1.1204, then a second low at 1.1206 formed a double btm. The NY-open rally after the Housing Starts miss has reclaimed the 1.1222 pivot (61.8% of the London drop) and is now testing the 1.1230 range top below the 1.1235 asian high.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1205, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1235
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.1230 range top keeps price inside the early-London range
M15 close above the 1.1235 asian high clears today's session high
Failure to hold the 1.1222 pivot (61.8% fib) undercuts the rebound, with the 1.1205 double btm and 1.1202 prior low below
French budget vote headlines and oil swings can jolt EUR intraday; Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is low impact
Double low 1.1204–06, price back near Asian range top.
The 09:00 UTC ZEW miss knocked EUR/USD from 1.1233 to 1.1204. A second test held at 1.1206, forming a double low, before a sharp run during the London-NY transition. Price sits at 1.1225, above the 61.8% fib of the ZEW drop and just under the 1.1235 day high (Asian range top), with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1206, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1235 day high breaks the Asian range top and today's range
Failure back below the 61.8% fib at 1.1222 reopens the 1.1206 double low
Break of the 1.1202 monday low confirms a lower low
French lower-house budget vote today could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Pullback recovering after London drop · RSI 50 · price 1.12189
Asian range lost on ZEW, retaking Asian low.
The 09:00 UTC ZEW expectations miss knocked EUR/USD out of its Asian range. The London low at 1.1204 held twice, just above the prior-day low at 1.1202. In the first hour of NY, price broke the descending intraday line and climbed back over the Asian low at 1.1213, and is now testing the 50% retrace of the Asian high to London low drop with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1204, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1223, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1223 (61.8% fib) reopens the 1.1235 Asian high
Slipping back below the 1.1213 Asian low puts the 1.1204 London low back in play; a break there clears the prior low at 1.1202
US ADP later today could shift this read during NY hours
Asian range broken lower; lower highs above a 1.1206 triple base.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1213 around the ZEW expectations miss, spiking to 1.1204. Since then price has carved lower highs, including the lower high at 1.1222 near the 61.8% of the ZEW drop, while a triple base holds at 1.1206. Into the London-NY transition the pair is retesting the Asian low from below, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1206, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1213, 1.1222, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1213 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and opens 1.1222
Acceptance above the 1.1222 lower high exposes the 1.1235 Asian high
Break of the 1.1206 triple base exposes the 1.1202 prior low (Monday NY low)
US ADP and the French lower-house revenue vote during NY hours could shift this read
12:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the ZEW drop · RSI 37 · price 1.1209
Asian range broken lower; lower highs pressing a 1.1202-1.1204 floor.
London dropped out of the Asian range (1.1213–1.1235) around the soft ZEW expectations print. Price hit a 1.1204 london low, and the bounce stalled at the 1.1222 lower high. Since then, lower highs along a falling trendline have pushed price back toward the 1.1202–1.1204 floor formed by the london low and yday low, with oil-driven USD strength in the background. Late London, RSI(14) is near 37 and ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1213, 1.1222, 1.1235
What it said to watch
An M15 close below 1.1202 (yday low) breaks the double floor and extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery back above the 1.1213 asian low and the falling trendline weakens the downtrend read
A close above the 1.1222 lower high puts the 1.1235 asian high back in play
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) around NY open could shift this read
Asian range broken lower; lower highs compressing above session low.
London broke below the 1.1209–1.1235 Asian range into the 09:00 UTC ZEW miss and printed a 1.1204 session low. The bounce met rejection at the 1.1222 rebound high, just under the 61.8% fib. Price has since set a 1.1213 lower high under a falling trendline and sits just above yesterday's 1.1202 prior low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1202, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1213, 1.1222, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1202 prior low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1185 band floor
Close above the falling trendline and the 1.1213 lower high, then the 1.1222 rebound high, negates the lower-high read and reopens the 1.1235 Asian high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and housing starts (12:30 UTC) near the NY open, plus the French budget vote, could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 38 · price 1.12116
Asian range low broken, lower-high sequence above 1.1204.
Asia ran to the 1.1235 asian high, then London broke the 1.1213 asian low as the 09:00 UTC ZEW miss and an oil-driven USD rebound flushed price to the 1.1204 london low, just above the 1.1202 prior low. The bounce stalled at a 1.1222 lower high near the 61.8% of the London sell-off fib. Late London, price is pinned between the 1.1207 swing low and the asian low, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.12066, 1.12041, 1.12023
Resistance: 1.12133, 1.12219, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1204 london low and 1.1202 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1213 asian low and a close above the 1.1222 lower high negates the sell-off structure
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and housing starts (12:30 UTC) around the NY open, plus French budget vote headlines, could materially shift this read
Below Asian range, lower highs compressing above ZEW low.
London rolled over from a triple top at 1.1234, and the ZEW miss knocked price through the Asian low to 1.1204, the zew low, just above yesterday's prior low at 1.1202. The rebound stalled at 1.1222, near the 61.8% of the session drop, and a run of lower highs has pushed price back under the 1.1213 asian low with RSI(14) at 39.
Support: 1.1209, 1.1204, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1213, 1.1222, 1.1234
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1204 zew low and 1.1202 prior low opens the 1.1185 band floor named in the market digest
Close back above 1.1222 breaks the lower high chain and negates the post-ZEW fade
Failure to hold the 1.1209 micro low keeps the lower high trendline in control
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and housing data at 12:30 UTC, plus the French budget vote, could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the ZEW drop · RSI 38 · price 1.12111
Asian high 1.1235 rejected; ZEW flush to 1.1204, bounce capped at 61.8%.
London gave back the Asian rally after the ZEW miss, dropping to the zew low at 1.1204. The bounce stalled at the 61.8% of the London drop, the bounce high at 1.1222, and the lower highs since have pushed price back onto the asia base at 1.1209. Higher oil and French fiscal stress are weighing on EUR.
Support: 1.1209, 1.1204, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1235
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asia base at 1.1209 exposes the zew low at 1.1204 and yesterday's prior low at 1.1202
Close above the lower-highs line and the 1.1222 bounce high negates the intraday downtrend read; the Asian high at 1.1235 sits above
Loss of 1.1202 opens the bottom of the 1.1185–1.1235 band
US ADP (12:15 UTC), housing data (12:30 UTC) and the French budget revenue vote could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Intraday range, London leg lower · RSI 42 · price 1.12161
Asian up-leg topped at 1.1235; London lower high, sharp drop and partial retrace.
London formed a double top against the 1.1235 asian high, then dropped about 30 pips around the 09:00 UTC ZEW miss as oil lifted the dollar. The drop swept the asian low to a 1.1204 session low before snapping back. Mid-London, price is pinned near the 1.1213 asian low and the 38.2% of the London drop, with the 1.1222 bounce high capping.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1204, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1204 session low exposes the 1.1202 prior low and the 1.1185 band floor
Close above the 1.1222 bounce high (61.8% of London drop near 1.1223) reopens the 1.1235 asian high
French budget revenue vote today and US ADP at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Asia uptrend broken, sideways after ZEW spike · RSI 41 · price 1.12167
Lower high under 1.1235, ZEW false break below Asian low reclaimed, coiling 1.1213–1.1222.
Asia climbed to a 1.1235 session high and London stalled just below it, before the 09:00 UTC ZEW miss and an oil-driven dollar rebound pushed EURUSD through the Asian low to 1.1204. The drop was reclaimed within one bar. Price is now coiling between the 1.1213 Asian low, retested and held, and the 1.1222 post-ZEW high, below both EMAs and under the 61.8% retrace of the drop.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1204, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1204 ZEW low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.1185 band floor in view
M15 close above the 1.1222 post-ZEW high (61.8% retrace) reopens the 1.1235 session high
ECB Escrivá (10:00 UTC), the French budget revenue vote and US ADP at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London reversal, bounce fading · RSI 41 · price 1.1216
Asian range broken to downside; lower high capped at 61.8% fib.
London stalled just under the 1.1235 Asian high and then fell through the Asian range low. Price hit a 1.1204 session low into the German and Eurozone ZEW misses, a pip off Monday's low. The rebound was capped at the 61.8% fib near 1.1222, and price now sits at 1.1216, under both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1204, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 61.8% fib at 1.1222 reopens the 1.1235 Asian high
Loss of the 1.1210 overnight low puts the 1.1204 session low and Monday's 1.1202 low back in play
Break below 1.1202 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1185 UOB band floor
Escrivá at 10:00 UTC, today's French budget revenue vote and US ADP at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
London range broke lower into ZEW, false break below the Asian low now recovering.
London's 1.1225–1.1234 range gave way around the 09:00 UTC ZEW release, a 29-pip flush to a 1.1204 session low that held just above Monday's 1.1202 prior low before buyers stepped back in above the 1.1213 asian low. Price now sits at the 50% retracement of the ZEW drop, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 43, as French political stress weighs on EUR and a soft USD cushions the downside.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1204, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1213 asian low reopens the 1.1204 session low and 1.1202 prior low
Reclaim of the 1.1225 london low and the 61.8% of the ZEW drop fib brings the 1.1235 asian high back into view
ECB's Escrivá at 10:00 UTC and US housing data at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
French lower-house budget vote headlines remain the main event risk for EUR
Double top at the Asian high, Asian range broken lower, testing prior-day low.
London failed twice under the 1.1233–35 Asian high. A 29-pip two-bar drop around the 09:00 UTC ZEW slice (actual not yet in feed) then broke the asian low at 1.1213 and printed a session low at 1.1204, just above the prior low at 1.1202. RSI(14) is near 34 with price under both EMAs, and French political stress keeping EUR heavy is the backdrop.
Support: 1.12041, 1.12023, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.12133, 1.12232, 1.1235
What it said to watch
Close back above 1.1213 asian low returns price to the Asian range; 61.8% fib of the selloff sits at 1.1223
Break of the 1.1204 session low and 1.1202 prior low exposes the 1.1185 band low flagged in the digest
Recovery above the 1.1235 asian high would negate the double top
ECB's Escrivá at 10:00 UTC and today's French lower-house budget vote could materially shift this read
US housing data 12:15–14:00 UTC adds NY-session event risk
09:16 UTC
Asian uptrend stalled; London rolling over · RSI 38 · price 1.12227
Lower highs under the Asian high, London low broken.
London failed twice below the 1.1234 Asian high, setting lower highs. The 08:45 UTC bar then dropped 14 pips through the 1.1225 London low to a 1.1219 spike low, at the 61.8% of the Asian leg, into the ZEW release, while French unrest keeps EUR heavy.
Support: 1.1219, 1.1213, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1234
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1225 london low negates the break; a rejection there keeps the lower highs intact
Break of the 1.1213 asian low exposes the 1.1202 monday low
ZEW (09:00 UTC), ECB's Escrivá (10:00 UTC) and US housing data (12:15–14:00 UTC) could shift this read
Escalation around today's French budget vote could extend EUR weakness
09:01 UTC
Asia uptrend, flattening in London · RSI 52 · price 1.12319
Tight London range 1.1225–1.1234 under the Asian high.
EUR/USD climbed through Monday's 1.1231 high during the Asia session as the soft USD offset euro weakness tied to French unrest. London has held a narrow range between the 1.1225 London low and 1.1234, still below the 1.1235 Asian high. The London low sits on the 38.2% retracement of the Asia leg up from the 1.1211 Asian low.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1211
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1275
What it said to watch
ZEW at 09:00 UTC and Escrivá at 10:00 UTC could break the London range
A close above the 1.1235 Asian high opens 1.1275, the next res
Failure to hold the 1.1225 London low exposes the 50% retrace near 1.1223, then the 1.1211 Asian low
08:46 UTC
Asia-driven upleg, London stalling in a tight range · RSI 48 · price 1.1230
10-pip compression under the Asian high after a break of Monday's high.
Asia lifted EUR/USD from 1.1209 through Monday's 1.1231 high to the 1.1235 asian high as the USD softened. London has since compressed between the 1.1225 london low and 1.1234, and the hot German PPI print barely moved price. The london low sits on the 38.2% retracement of the Asia leg, RSI(14) is neutral near 48 and price is pinned to EMA20, with ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.12245, 1.12135, 1.12023
Resistance: 1.1235
What it said to watch
ZEW at 09:00 UTC lands inside the 1.1225–1.1235 compression; an M15 close outside either edge sets the London direction
M15 close above the 1.1235 asian high extends the Asia breakout leg
Failure to hold the 1.1225 london low and the 38.2% fib exposes the 1.1213 swing low, then the 1.1202 monday low
ECB's Escrivá at 10:00 UTC and French budget headlines could cap upside
08:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under Asia high · RSI 49 · price 1.12308
Asia rally capped at 1.1235; London compressing 1.1225–1.1235.
Asia rallied from the 1.1213 Asia low through Monday's 1.1231 high to 1.1235 on a softer USD. In early London, price has been rejected twice just under the Asia high, while the London low at 1.1225 holds at the 50% retrace of the Asia rally and on the rising Asia trendline. The German PPI beat at 06:00 UTC barely moved price, RSI(14) sits flat near 49, and the pair is compressing into ZEW.
Support: 1.12245, 1.12135, 1.12023
Resistance: 1.1235
What it said to watch
ZEW sentiment at 09:00 UTC could break the 1.1225–1.1235 compression
M15 close above the 1.1235 Asia high clears the session top and the upper edge of the digest's short-term band
Break of the 1.1225 London low and the Asia trendline exposes the 1.1213 Asia low
Loss of the Asia low reopens the Monday low at 1.1202
French budget revenue vote and US housing data (12:15–14:00 UTC) could shift the read later in the day
08:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below asian high · RSI 45 · price 1.12283
Tight London range 1.1225–1.1234 under the asian high.
Asia ran from the 1.1214 asian low to a 1.1235 asian high on soft USD (DXY ~101.80), clearing Monday's 1.1231 prior high. The hot German PPI beat at 06:00 UTC added no follow-through. An hour into London, price is back below the prior high and boxed in 1.1225–1.1234, with the london low sitting on the 50% retracement of the asian leg.
Support: 1.12245, 1.12135
Resistance: 1.12307, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1235 asian high breaks the London range to the upside; 1.1275 is the next cited resistance
Failure to hold the 1.1225 london low (50% of the asian leg) exposes the 1.1214 asian low
Repeated closes below the 1.1231 prior high turn the Asia breakout into a false break
ZEW sentiment at 09:00 UTC and ECB's Escrivá at 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
French budget revenue vote today and US housing data 12:15–14:00 UTC are event risk for the NY session
08:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under asian high · RSI 47 · price 1.12287
Tight London range 1.1225–1.1234 below the 1.1235 asian high; Asia higher-low chain intact.
Asia rallied from the 1.1214 asian low to a 1.1235 asian high as the dollar eased, briefly clearing yesterday's 1.1231 prior high. London has since compressed between 1.1225 and 1.1234, with the London low holding the 50% fib of the Asian rally through the hot German PPI print. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and price is sitting on the 20 EMA.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1214, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1235, 1.1275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1235 asian high, the top of the 1.1185–1.1235 band, opens the path toward 1.1275 scotiabank resistance
Loss of the 1.1225 london low and the rising support line exposes the 1.1214 asian low, then yesterday's 1.1202 swing low
ZEW sentiment at 09:00 UTC and ECB's Escrivá at 10:00 UTC could break the London range; French budget vote is the EUR-specific risk
Repeated closes back below the 1.1231 prior high keep the Asian breakout looking like a stall
07:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under Asian high · RSI 62 · price 1.12308
HH/HL chain from 1.1213; early-London consolidation 1.1225–1.1235.
Asia ground higher from the 1.1213 Asian low through Monday's 1.1231 prior high to 1.1235. The dip after the hot German PPI held a 1.1225 higher low at the 50% fib and asia support line, and the first hour of London stalled just under the Asian high, with French headlines capping the euro and a soft dollar keeping it supported.
Support: 1.1231, 1.12245, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1235 Asian high breaks the session cap and opens the 1.1275 resistance
Failure to hold the 1.1231 prior high and 1.1225 higher low breaks asia support and brings the 1.1213 Asian low back into view
ZEW sentiment at 09:00 UTC and Escrivá at 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asia high · RSI 54 · price 1.12304
Asian breakout above yesterday's high, then higher low at the 50% retrace.
Asia ran from the 1.1213 asia low through yesterday's 1.1231 high to 1.1235 as DXY slipped. The hot German PPI print brought a dip, not follow-through: the pullback stalled near 1.1225, close to the 50% retrace of the Asian leg. Early London is holding that higher low but sits capped under the europe high near 1.1232, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.12245, 1.12133, 1.12023
Resistance: 1.12316, 1.1235
What it said to watch
A close below the london low at 1.1225 breaks the higher low and exposes the asia low at 1.1213.
A close above the asia high at 1.1235, the top of the cited 1.1185–1.1235 band, extends the Asian breakout.
Loss of 1.1213 brings yesterday's swing low at 1.1202 back into view.
German ZEW at 09:00 UTC and ECB's Escrivá at 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
07:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below asian high · RSI 56 · price 1.12273
Asian HH/HL chain capped at 1.1235; lower highs at 1.1232 since the rejection.
Asia built a HH/HL chain from the 1.1211 asian low to a 1.1235 asian high, clearing Monday's 1.1231 peak before a rejection. The dip on the hot German PPI print held 1.1225 (ppi low), close to the 38.2% of the Asian leg. Early London has price compressing under a 1.1232 lower high, sitting on the Asian rising trendline with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 1.12251, 1.12229, 1.12107
Resistance: 1.12316, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1225 ppi low breaks the Asian rising trendline and exposes the fib 50% at 1.1223
M15 close above the 1.1232 lower high reopens a test of the 1.1235 asian high, the top of the 1.1185–1.1235 band
Loss of the fib 50% shifts focus back toward the 1.1211 asian low
ZEW sentiment at 09:00 UTC and ECB's Escrivá at 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below the Asia high · RSI 55 · price 1.12286
HH/HL chain off the late-NY base; first pullback held the 38.2% fib.
Asia climbed from the 1.1209 asia base through Monday's high at 1.1231 to an asia high of 1.1235, the top of the 1.1185–1.1235 band, as the DXY slipped. Price was rejected there. The hot German PPI bar then dipped to the 1.1225 ppi low, which is the 38.2% retracement. Buyers stepped in, and price is now sitting on the Asia trendline near 1.1229 into the London open, with RSI near 55 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.12251, 1.1219, 1.12087
Resistance: 1.12307, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1225 ppi low breaks the Asia trendline and exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.1219
Acceptance back above the 1.1231 mon high puts the 1.1235 asia high in play; a clean break exits the 1.1185–1.1235 band
Loss of the 1.1209 asia base would unwind the entire Asian rally
ZEW at 09:00 UTC and ECB's Escrivá at 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Uptrend since Asia, pausing at the highs · RSI 59 · price 1.12309
Higher-low chain off the 1.1213 Asia base; Monday's high reclaimed after a dip on the PPI release.
A softer DXY lifted the pair through Asia from the 1.1213 asia base, through Monday's 1.1231 high and on to the 1.1235 asian high. The hot German PPI bar dipped to 1.1225, the 38.2–50% fib of the Asian leg on the rising trendline, and buyers stepped back in. Early European trade has price back at the prior high, RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1213, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1235 asian high extends the Asia higher-high chain toward the 1.1270–75 res band
Break below the 1.1225 ppi low and the rising trendline turns the Asia move into a false break back toward the 1.1213 asia base
Loss of 1.1213 exposes Monday's 1.1202 ny low
ZEW at 09:00 UTC and ECB's Escrivá at 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read; US ADP and housing data follow at 12:15–12:30 UTC
06:31 UTC
Asian uptrend stalled, pulling back · RSI 55 · price 1.12272
HH/HL chain broken by failed push above prior high.
A soft USD, with the DXY near 101.80, carried an Asia-session HH/HL climb from the 1.1213 Asian low through Monday's 1.1231 prior high to a 1.1235 Asian high. That break failed into the 06:00 UTC PPI window, and price dropped back to the 1.1225 swing low. Pre-London, price sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) cooled to 55, holding the 38.2% of the Asian leg fib.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1222, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1235
What it said to watch
Close back above 1.1231 prior high and the 1.1235 asian high negates the false-break read
Failure at the 1.1225 swing low exposes the 1.1222 fib 61.8 and the 1.1213 asian low
ZEW 09:00 UTC could set the London session direction; French OAT-Bund spread headlines remain a euro risk
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
06:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at prior high · RSI 57 · price 1.12276
Asian HH/HL chain; failed hold above 1.1231, pullback to fib.
With DXY soft near 101.80, the Asian session pushed through Monday's 1.1231 prior high to a 1.1235 Asian high. The 05:45 UTC bar then dropped back to 1.1227, breaking the Asian trendline and landing on the ema20/fib zone (38.2% of the 1.1213–1.1235 leg) into the London open. RSI(14) has cooled to ~57; ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1227, 1.1213, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1235, 1.1275
What it said to watch
Hold of the 1.1227 ema20/fib zone keeps the Asian HH/HL chain intact; a close below the 1.1213 Asian low unwinds the move toward the 1.1202 NY low
An M15 close back above the 1.1235 Asian high negates the false break at the prior high and opens the 1.1270–1.1280 res band
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read; French spread headlines remain the EUR-side risk
Asian HH/HL chain broke Monday's high, now retesting it.
Asia ground higher in a steady HH/HL chain from the 1.1213 Asian low on broad USD softness, clearing Monday's 1.1231 prior high to print a 1.1235 Asian high. That recovers the London-open drop to 1.1186 on French unrest. The last two bars have eased back onto the prior high ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR at roughly 2.8 pips.
Support: 1.12307, 1.12242, 1.12133
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1231 prior high returns price to Monday's range and exposes the 1.1224 fib 50% of the Asian leg
M15 close above the 1.1235 Asian high extends the HH chain, with the 1.1250 round number next
A break of the Asian uptrend line and then the 1.1213 Asian low would unwind the overnight move
ZEW at 09:00 UTC and French spread headlines around London open could materially shift this read; US ADP follows at 12:15 UTC
Asian higher-low chain; Monday's high cleared, late Asia.
Asia climbed in a clean higher-low chain from the 1.1209 rollover low. It cleared Monday's 1.1231 prior high to a 1.1235 Asian high as the DXY eased toward 101.80. RSI(14) is near 77 and ATR is under 3 pips, so the move is orderly but stretched ahead of London open, with the Monday low at 1.1186 anchoring the window.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1214, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1270
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1231 prior high keeps the breakout intact; slipping back below turns it into a false break
Asian high at 1.1235 into London open: rejection or extension sets the session tone
Loss of the 1.1214 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low chain and reopens the monday low at 1.1186
PPI 06:00 and ZEW 09:00 UTC: a firm ZEW with crowded EUR shorts puts the 1.1270-1.1280 res band in play
Fresh French unrest or OAT-Bund spread widening could unwind the Asian leg toward its 50% fib near 1.1222
Asia ground out a steady HH/HL chain from the 1.1214 asian low as the DXY slipped to around 101.80. Price has pushed above the 1.1231 monday high to an asian high at 1.1235, with RSI(14) near 78 and bars compressing ahead of the London open. The rising trendline off Monday's 1.1202 low sits well below, near 1.1218.
Support: 1.12313, 1.12252, 1.12135
Resistance: 1.12346, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1231 monday high into the London open would turn the breakout into a false break
M15 close below the 1.1225 swing low breaks the Asian HH/HL chain and exposes the 61.8% retracement of the Asian leg near 1.1222, then the asian low at 1.1214
Acceptance above the 1.1235 asian high puts the 1.1250 round number in play
Euro PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC; with EUR shorts crowded, a ZEW beat could extend the move
A break of the rising trendline would end the higher-low sequence that has held since Monday's low
Steady HH/HL staircase through Asia, now pressing Monday's high.
Late Asia session: a clean HH/HL Asian leg from the 1.1213 asian base has fully retraced Monday's London dip to 1.1186. Price is now pressing the 1.1231 prior high, with a 1.1234 session high, as DXY slips toward 101.80. RSI(14) near 78 is stretched, but the Asian trendline is intact with no rejection yet.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1225, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.12342, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 closes holding above the 1.1231 prior high open the 1.1250 round number
M15 close below the 1.1225 swing low breaks the Asian trendline
Loss of the 1.1213 asian base would unwind the full Asian leg
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC land around London open and could shift this read
05:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into prior high · RSI 77 · price 1.12328
Asia HH/HL chain off 1.1214, testing Monday's 1.1233 high.
Late Asia session: EUR/USD has climbed in a steady HH/HL chain from the 1.1214 asia base. It is now pressing the 1.1233 prior high, which capped Monday's open, as the USD slips back below DXY 102.00. RSI(14) at 77 is stretched but not extreme, and ATR near 3 pips reflects thin pre-London conditions.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1214, 1.1202
Resistance: 1.1233, 1.1245, 1.1270
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1233 prior high opens the 1.1245 range cap, then the 1.1270 range top
Loss of the 1.1225 swing low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.1214 asia base (61.8% fib)
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC could reset the read around the London open
French protest headlines or a wider OAT-Bund spread remain the unscheduled risk back toward the 1.1202 ny low
04:46 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, RSI hot · RSI 77 · price 1.12316
HH/HL chain from the 1.1214 Asian low, pressing Monday's London high.
Late Asia has built a clean HH/HL chain from the 1.1214 asian low and is edging just above Monday's 1.1231 london high, with RSI(14) near 77. This extends the recovery from Monday's 1.1186 London-open low as USD softness offsets French spread risk. ATR is a thin ~3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.12307, 1.12252, 1.12135
Resistance: 1.12344, 1.1245
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1231 london high keeps the breakout intact; a slip back below reads as a false break
A close below the 1.1225 swing low and the asian trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
A close above the 1.1234 prior high opens the 1.1245 range top
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read around London open
04:31 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, momentum flattening at highs · RSI 74 · price 1.12292
HH/HL chain off 1.1211 Asian low, pressing Monday's London high.
Asia session has climbed in a clean HH/HL sequence along the Asia trendline from 1.1211 to 1.1230. Price is retesting Monday's london high at 1.1231, which capped the recovery from the French-headline dip to 1.1186. RSI(14) is near 74 and the last three bars have compressed under the level; the prior high at 1.1234 sits just above.
Support: 1.12252, 1.12135, 1.12023
Resistance: 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1231 london high and 1.1234 prior high extends the Asia leg toward the 1.1245 area
Loss of the 1.1225 swing low and the Asia trendline shifts the read to a pullback toward the 50% fib near 1.1220
Failure to hold the 1.1214 higher low unwinds the Asia rally and exposes the 1.1202 ny low
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC, plus French protest headlines, could materially shift this read in the London session
04:16 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, testing Monday high · RSI 70 · price 1.12295
HH/HL chain off 1.1213 Asia low, pressing Monday high.
Late Asia session has climbed in a steady HH/HL chain from the 1.1213 Asia low, retracing nearly all of Monday's French-protest drop, with the pullback low at 1.1225 holding. Price is now pressing the 1.1231 Monday high with RSI(14) near 70 and ATR at only ~3.4 pips. The 1.1234 prev Asia high sits just above.
Support: 1.12252, 1.12133, 1.12023
Resistance: 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 prev Asia high clears Monday's range top
Break of the 1.1225 pullback low and the Asia trendline ends the HH/HL chain; the 1.1213 Asia low is next
Loss of the 1.1202 NY low would confirm a full reversal of the Asia leg
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC, plus French protest headlines, could materially shift this read around London open
Asian higher-low chain pressing Monday's 1.1231-1.1234 highs.
Late Asia session has built a steady higher-low chain from the 1.1214 asian low to the 1.1225 swing low. Price is now pressing Monday's 1.1231 london high, the level reached after the French-unrest slide to 1.1186 at London open. RSI(14) is near 72 with a narrow 3.5-pip ATR, consistent with a grind higher rather than an impulsive move.
Support: 1.12252, 1.12135, 1.12023
Resistance: 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 monday high clears Monday's range top, with the digest's 1.1245 area next
Failure to hold the 1.1225 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low chain and the trendline support beneath it
A drop back below the 1.1214 asian low reopens the 1.1202 ny low
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC land in London hours and could materially shift this read
French protest and OAT-spread headlines remain the main unscheduled risk to EUR
HH/HL chain through Asia, pressing upper end of 24h range.
Monday's London-open drop to 1.11862 on French unrest has been retraced. Asia has ground up from the 1.1213 asia base in a higher-low chain to a 1.12292 asia high. Price is stalling just under Monday's london high at 1.12307 and prior high at 1.12344, with RSI(14) near 66 and not stretched.
Support: 1.12187, 1.12135, 1.12023
Resistance: 1.12292, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.12187 higher low breaks the asia trendline and the HL chain, exposing the 50% of the asia leg near 1.1220 and then the asia base at 1.12135
Acceptance above the london high at 1.12307 and the prior high at 1.12344 would extend the range break toward the 1.1245 area
Loss of 1.12135 reopens Monday's ny low at 1.12023
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
French protest headlines remain an unscheduled risk
Higher-low chain after Asian range breakout, pressing Monday highs.
Asia broke out of the overnight 1.1209–1.1214 range at 00:15 UTC and has climbed on rising lows to a 1.1229 Asia high. That leaves price just under Monday's 1.1231 London high and the 1.1234 Monday high. The move fully reverses Monday's French-protest dip toward the 1.1186 Monday low as the USD softens on AI-equity jitters, with RSI(14) near 76, hot but not extreme.
Support: 1.12167, 1.12135, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12292, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1234 Monday high clears the top of the 24h window; rejection at 1.1229–1.1234 caps the Asia leg
Break below the 1.1217 swing low (61.8% of the Asia leg) breaks the rising lows; loss of the 1.1214 range top puts price back inside the overnight range
German PPI 06:00 UTC and ZEW 09:00 UTC into London open could shift this read
Fresh French protest or OAT spread headlines could put the 1.1186 Monday low back in focus
HH/HL chain off the 1.1214 Asia higher low, pressing the London high.
Late in the Asia session, EURUSD has stepped up from the 1.1214 Asia HL (double-printed) to 1.1228. Price is now just under Monday's London high at 1.1231, with the Monday high at 1.1234 above. The move tracks the digest's softer USD tone after Monday's French-protest dip to 1.1186. RSI(14) at 77 is hot but not extreme, and ATR(14) is only about 3 pips, so the move is orderly.
Support: 1.12135, 1.12023
Resistance: 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 london high and the 1.1234 monday high extends the HH chain
Break of the asia trendline and below the 1.1214 asia hl negates the Asia uptrend; the 1.1202 ny low is next
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC around the London open could materially shift this read
French protest and spread headlines remain the main unscheduled EUR risk
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia, approaching London high.
Late Asia session: EUR/USD has climbed from the 1.1213 asian low in a higher-high, higher-low chain. At 1.1224 it sits near the 76% retracement of Monday's 1.1231–1.1202 drop, with RSI(14) at about 71. Monday's London open flushed to the 1.1186 monday low on French protest risk, and softer USD then rebuilt the range above the 1.1202 ny low.
Support: 1.12135, 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12307, 1.12344, 1.1245
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1231 london high brings the 1.1234 prior high and the 1.1245 level into play
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1213 asian low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1202 ny low
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC land in the London session and could shift this read
French protest and OAT-Bund spread headlines remain the main unscheduled risk
Asia higher-low chain testing 61.8% of London high–NY low drop.
Monday's London-open drop to 1.1186 on French protest headlines was fully recovered, with the London high at 1.1231 capping before NY settled to a 1.1202 low. Asia has printed higher lows off the 1.1209 asia low and is now at the 1.1221 session high, which coincides with the 61.8% retrace of the London-NY drop. RSI(14) is near 70 on thin ranges.
Support: 1.12135, 1.12087, 1.12023
Resistance: 1.12209, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1221 session high clears the 61.8% and opens the 1.1231 london high, then the 1.1234 monday high
Break of the 1.1214 asia pivot undercuts the Asia higher lows, exposing the 1.1209 asia low
Loss of the 1.1202 ny low returns price to Monday's afternoon range floor
German PPI 06:00 UTC and ZEW 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read; French protest headlines remain the main unscheduled risk
Tight Asia range above the late NY base, higher lows against a flat asian high.
After Monday's French-protest drop to 1.1186 at London open, the London rebound topped at the 1.1231 london high. NY then held the 1.1202 ny low near the 61.8% retrace. Asia lifted price off the 1.1209 late ny base into a 1.1213–1.1220 band, with higher lows on rising support pressing the asian high and RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.12135, 1.12087, 1.12023
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1213 asian low and rising support puts the 1.1209 late ny base back in play
An M15 close above the 1.1220 asian high exposes the 1.1231 london high and the 1.1234 prior high
Loss of the 1.1202 ny low, the 61.8% of the london rebound fib, reopens Monday's 1.1186 low
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC could resolve the Asian range around London open; French protest headlines remain the unscheduled risk
Tight Asian consolidation under the NY high after a higher low.
Asia lifted EUR/USD off the 1.1209 rollover into a 1.1213 asian base to 1.1220 asian high band, stalling near the 61.8% of the NY drop fib from the 1.1228 ny high to the 1.1202 ny low. Monday's London-open plunge to the 1.1186 day low on French unrest has been fully reclaimed. RSI(14) sits near 59 and ATR is under 3 pips.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1228, 1.1234
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 asian high clears the NY drop fib and exposes the 1.1228 ny high, then the 1.1234 day high
Loss of the 1.1213 asian base reopens the 1.1202 ny low, with the 1.1186 day low below
German PPI (06:00 UTC) and ZEW (09:00 UTC) into London could reset the Asian range
Asian session lifted out of the overnight band; capped at 1.1220 near the 61.8% fib.
Early Asia session lifted price off the 1.1213 Asian low and out of the thin late-NY 1.1209–1.1213 band, but the move stalled at the 1.1220 Asian high. That cap sits on the 61.8% retrace of Monday's 1.1234–1.1186 French-unrest drop. Monday's London high at 1.1231 remains the upper bound of the range, with the 1.1202 NY low as the lower bound.
Support: 1.12133, 1.12087, 1.12023
Resistance: 1.12196, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 Asian high clears the 61.8% fib and puts the 1.1231 London high in play
Failure to hold the 1.1213 Asian low returns price to the late-NY low at 1.1209
A break of the 1.1202 NY low reopens Monday's London-open low near 1.1186
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC could break the Asian range at London open
Hold of the 1.1234 Monday high keeps the post-drop recovery inside the range
Asia higher lows above the late-NY range, inside Monday's London leg.
Asia session lifted out of the quiet 1.1209–1.1214 post-NY range base at 00:00 UTC. It printed an Asia high at 1.1219 and held a pullback low at 1.1213, with price above both EMAs and RSI(14) near 65. Monday's London leg ran from the 1.1186 French-unrest low to the 1.1231 London high and still frames the session; the NY low at 1.1202 sits near that leg's 61.8% retracement.
Support: 1.12135, 1.1209, 1.12023
Resistance: 1.12193, 1.12307
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1219 Asia high exposes the 1.1231 London high
Loss of the 1.1213 pullback low breaks the Asia higher lows trendline and returns price to the 1.1209 range base
Close below the 1.1202 NY low opens the lower half of the London leg fib
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read; French political headlines remain the dominant EUR risk
01:01 UTC
Recovering intraday, early Asia push higher · RSI 63 · price 1.12182
Asia break above late-NY 1.1209–1.1214 range, higher lows from NY low.
Monday's London-open drop to the 1.1186 monday low on French unrest was faded to a 1.1231 london high, before NY sold back to a 1.1202 ny low and compressed into a 1.1209–1.1214 range. Early Asia has lifted out of that range to a 1.1219 session high, RSI(14) near 63, with the rising-lows trendline from the NY low intact.
Support: 1.1213, 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12193, 1.12307
What it said to watch
Slip back below the 1.1213 range top negates the Asia range break and reopens the 1.1202 ny low
M15 close above the 1.1219 session high and then the 1.1231 london high clears Monday's intraday ceiling
Break of the rising-lows trendline from the NY low returns focus to the 1.1186 monday low
German PPI 06:00 UTC, ZEW 09:00 UTC and French political headlines could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Range, mild intraday lift off the base · RSI 74 · price 1.12177
1.1202–1.1231 range after the London sweep; Asian base breaking higher.
Monday's London open swept to the london low at 1.1186 on French unrest headlines, then recovered to the london high at 1.1231. NY carved lower highs, and the ny low at 1.1202 held at the 61.8% fib of that recovery. Early Asia sat in a tight 1.1209–1.1214 asian base before lifting to a 1.1219 session high, with RSI(14) near 74 on the push.
Support: 1.1209, 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1231, 1.1234
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1219 session high puts the 1.1231 london high and 1.1234 monday high back in play
Slip back below the 1.1209 asian base returns price to the ny low at 1.1202; a break there exposes the 1.1186 london low
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
French political headlines remain the dominant intraday event risk for EUR
00:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, early Asia lifting · RSI 70 · price 1.12179
Breaking out of overnight range, higher low at 1.1209.
Monday's London sell-off on French unrest swept to 1.1186 before rebounding to the 1.1231 london high. NY then set a 1.1222 lower high and a 1.1202 ny low near the 61.8% of the rebound fib. Early Asia is pushing out of the 1.1209–1.1214 overnight range off rising lows, with RSI(14) near 70 and ATR(14) a thin ~2 pips.
Support: 1.12087, 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12215, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.1209 range low returns price to the overnight range and puts the 1.1202 ny low back in play
M15 close above the 1.1222 lower high opens the 1.1231 london high and 1.1234 prior high
Loss of 1.1186 london low would break the rebound structure entirely
German PPI 06:00 UTC, ZEW 09:00 UTC and French political headlines could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Sideways after London sell-off and partial rebound · RSI 56 · price 1.12132
Lower highs since 1.1231; tight 1.1209–1.1218 compression into Asia session.
London open swept the Asian range low and broke below 1.12 to the 1.1186 london low as French protest risk weighed on EUR. The rebound stalled at the 1.1231 rebound high, under the 1.1234 asian high, and NY faded to the 1.1202 ny low near the 61.8% fib. Late NY and early Asia session compressed into a 9-pip range high/range low band at 1.1218/1.1209, with ATR(14) shrinking to about 2.4 pips and price sitting on a flat EMA50.
Support: 1.12087, 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12176, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1218 range high opens the 1.1231 rebound high and 1.1234 asian high
Loss of the 1.1209 range low exposes the 1.1202 ny low; a break there leaves the 1.1186 london low in view
German PPI 06:00 UTC and ZEW 09:00 UTC, plus French spread headlines, are the likely catalysts to break this compression