1.1180–1.1269 range; higher lows since Monday, capped near 1.1260.
Monday opened about 48 pips below Friday's close at the 1.1190 weekly open, and price has since carved higher lows from Monday's London low inside the range that has held since Thursday. Demand stepped in at the 1.1204 Tue low after the London-session ZEW miss. The NY spike on soft US housing data then printed a 1.1260 week high and faded below the range top, leaving a long upper wick, while the pullback held near the 61.8% fib of Tuesday's impulse. Price sits above the ema20 near 1.1229 with RSI(14) near 58, and the 1.1250–1.1269 band (week high, prior high) has rejected three tests across the window.
Support: 1.1229, 1.1204, 1.1190
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1260 week high and the 1.1269 prior high breaks the range top that has capped three tests
Loss of the ema20 and a close below the 1.1204 tue low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1190 weekly open
Lagarde speech Wed 16:30 UTC (Lane, Nagel, Cipollone earlier) could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Range, recovering from Monday's gap low · RSI 59 · price 1.12361
Higher lows since Monday under lower highs from Friday's peak.
Monday's weekend gap opened near 1.1190 and printed the week low at 1.1180, but price has since filled it back to Friday's close at 1.1238. Higher lows followed at 1.1186 and then the Tuesday low at 1.1204 after the ZEW miss in London, as the dollar eased on US-Iran headlines and soft US housing data. Tuesday's NY spike to the 1.1260 Tuesday high was rejected, but the pullback held the fib 61.8 retracement at 1.1226 and price sits above EMA(20) near 1.1230 with RSI(14) around 59, still below Friday's 1.1269 prior high.
Support: 1.12256, 1.12041, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12382, 1.12603, 1.12691
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.1204 Tuesday low breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the 1.1180 week low back in focus
Sustained trade above the 1.1238 Friday close and the 1.1260 Tuesday high would test the 1.1269 prior high and the lower-highs line
Loss of the fib 61.8 at 1.1226 alongside EMA(20) would turn the Tuesday rally into a failed impulse
Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC, preceded by Lane, Nagel and Cipollone, could materially shift this read; French spread and US-Iran headlines remain live drivers
Higher lows since Monday, capped below last week's 1.1269 high.
The week opened with a gap lower from the 1.1238 prior close to a 1.1180 weekly low. Lows have stepped higher since, from 1.1186 at Monday's London open to the 1.1204 Tue low. Tuesday's NY session filled the gap as weak US housing data and lower oil and yields softened the dollar, but the spike to the 1.1260 Tue high met a sharp rejection. Price is settling near 1.1235, above the ema20 (1.1229), the EMA(50) and the 38.2% fib of the weekly low-to-Tue high move, with RSI(14) at 55 mid-range and still below the 1.1269 prior high.
Support: 1.1229, 1.1204, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1260 Tue high and 1.1269 prior high would break the range top
Hourly closes back below the ema20 and the higher-lows line put the 1.1204 Tue low in focus
Failure to hold 1.1204 reopens the 1.1180 weekly low and breaks the higher-low sequence
Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC, preceded by Lane, Nagel and Cipollone, could materially shift this read
US-Iran and oil headlines plus French spread news remain the swing factors for the dollar and the euro
20:01 UTC
Range with rising lows, recovering from Monday's gap · RSI 57 · price 1.12372
Higher lows since Monday London open; capped at 1.1260 week high.
The week opened with a gap down to the 1.1190 weekly open. Monday's London open dip to 1.1186 was absorbed, and lows have stepped higher since, at 1.1202 and then the 1.1204 higher low. Tuesday's NY session spike to the 1.1260 week high came as soft US housing data and Iran-deal headlines pulled oil, yields and the dollar lower, but supply rejected the high. The pullback held near the 61.8% retracement of that impulse. Price now sits back at Friday's 1.1238 close with the gap filled, above EMA(20) and with RSI(14) near 57, still short of the prior high at 1.1269.
Support: 1.1229, 1.12041, 1.11902
Resistance: 1.12603, 1.12691
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1260 week high breaks the range top and opens the 1.1269 prior high
Loss of the 1.1204 higher low breaks the rising-low trendline and puts the 1.1190 weekly open back in focus
Repeated failure to hold above EMA(20) near 1.1229 would point to range rotation rather than continuation
Lagarde speech Wed 16:30 UTC, preceded by Lane, Nagel and Cipollone, could materially shift this read
Iran-deal confirmation or collapse headlines could quickly reverse the oil and yield-driven USD softness
Higher lows since Monday's gap-down open; 1.1260 spike high rejected.
EUR/USD has printed higher lows since Monday's gap-down weekly open at 1.1190. Buyers stepped in on Monday's London-open dip to 1.1186 and again at Tuesday's 1.1204 low. The NY-session push on weak US housing data and falling oil spiked to a week high at 1.1260, but that met rejection and left price back near last week's prior close at 1.1238, above the EMA(20) around 1.1226 with RSI(14) mid-range near 55.
Support: 1.1226, 1.12041, 1.11902
Resistance: 1.12382, 1.12603, 1.12691
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1260 week high reopens last week's prior high at 1.1269
A break below Tuesday's 1.1204 low ends the higher-lows sequence and exposes the weekly open at 1.1190
Repeated H1 closes below the EMA(20) near 1.1226 would point to the NY spike fading into range
Lagarde speech Wed 16:30 UTC, preceded by Lane, Nagel and Cipollone, could materially shift this read
French OAT-Bund spread headlines remain the main EUR-side swing factor
18:01 UTC
Range with rising lows, momentum neutral · RSI 52 · price 1.12305
Higher lows since Monday inside a 1.1204–1.1260 band, rejection at week high.
The week opened at 1.1190 (weekly open), gapping below Friday's 1.1238 close. Since then price has printed higher lows from Monday's London low at 1.1186, with the latest higher low at 1.1204 in Tuesday's London session. Tuesday's NY push on US-Iran deal reports and weak US housing data filled the gap and tagged a 1.1260 week high, but the bar closed well off the top. Price has since eased back to the 61.8% retracement of Tuesday's impulse and is holding just above the ema20 near 1.1227, with RSI(14) cooled to ~52, the fri close at 1.1238 as the nearest cap and last week's 1.1269 prior high above.
Support: 1.1227, 1.1204, 1.1190
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1204 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and brings the 1.1190 weekly open back into view
Acceptance above the 1.1260 week high would expose last week's 1.1269 prior high
Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC, with Lane, Nagel and Cipollone earlier in the day, could materially shift this read
Reversal of the US-Iran deal reports would remove the driver behind Tuesday's NY rally toward the week high
Higher lows inside 1.1180–1.1269 range, lower high under Friday's peak.
EUR/USD has rebuilt from Monday's gap-down week low at 1.1180, printing higher lows at 1.1186 and the Tuesday low at 1.1204. Tuesday's NY-session leg to the 1.1260 week high came as oil and Treasury yields slipped on US-Iran negotiation reports and soft US housing data. That push was rejected below the Friday high at 1.1269 and has retraced to the 50% fib of the Tuesday leg near 1.1232, just under the prior close at 1.1238, with price still above EMA(20) around 1.1225 and RSI(14) back near 53.
Support: 1.12245, 1.12041, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12382, 1.12603, 1.12691
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1260 week high and the 1.1269 Friday high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the range top
Failure to hold the Tuesday low at 1.1204 ends the higher-lows sequence and puts the 1.1180 week low back in play
Acceptance back above the 1.1238 prior close would mark the rejection at 1.1260 as a pause rather than a top
Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC and ECB speakers earlier Wednesday could materially shift this read
A reversal in US-Iran headlines lifting oil would undercut the Tuesday leg higher
16:01 UTC
Range-bound, upper half after NY push · RSI 62 · price 1.12418
1.1186–1.1269 range since Thursday; higher lows, lower highs.
EUR/USD has held a 1.1186–1.1269 range since Thursday. Monday's gap-down open and London-open drop to the 1.1186 range low were recovered, and Tuesday's London low at 1.1204 printed a higher low. In NY hours, soft US housing data and US-Iran deal reports weighed on the dollar and drove a NY impulse to 1.1260. That spike drew a rejection short of Friday's 1.1269 week high, so the Tuesday high stands as a lower high. Price sits at 1.1242, above EMA(20) near 1.1225, with RSI(14) around 62.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1204, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1269 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the range top
Holding EMA(20) near 1.1225, which aligns with the 61.8% retracement of the NY impulse, keeps Tuesday's push intact
Loss of the 1.1204 London low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 1.1186 range low
Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC, plus ECB speakers through Wednesday, could materially shift this read; French spread and Moody's headlines are unscheduled risks
15:02 UTC
Sideways, range-bound below the week high · RSI 61 · price 1.12353
1.1186–1.1237 range after the Wed–Fri impulse, higher lows since Monday.
EUR/USD has held a 1.1186–1.1237 range since the Wed–Fri impulse topped at the 1.1269 prior high. Monday's London-open drop to the 1.1186 double low and Tuesday's ZEW-miss dip to the 1.1204 tuesday low both held inside the 38.2–50% fib of that impulse, leaving a run of higher lows. Soft US housing data and lower yields in the NY session lifted price back above EMA(20) at 1.1222, with RSI(14) near 61, and into the range top, which sits beside last week's 1.1238 close.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1204, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1237 range top and last week's close opens the path to the 1.1269 prior high
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.1204 tuesday low returns focus to the 1.1186 double low
A fall back below EMA(20) at 1.1222 would mark a third failure at the range top
ECB speakers on Wednesday (Lane, Nagel, Cipollone, then Lagarde at 16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
French budget vote or Moody's review headlines could reprice the euro risk premium
14:02 UTC
Range-bound, compressing · RSI 56 · price 1.12235
Lower highs from 1.1269 against higher lows from the 1.1180 weekly low.
Friday's prior high at 1.1269 was rejected into the NY session, and the week opened with a gap down from 1.1238 to a weekly low at 1.1180. Since then H1 has compressed between higher lows (1.1180, 1.1186, then the 1.1204 tue low) and a 2-day high at 1.1235, holding near the 50–61.8% zone of last week's rally fib. Today's London dip to 1.1204 on the weak ZEW sentiment print recovered into the NY open after the US housing starts miss, putting price back just above the ema20 near 1.1220 with RSI(14) at a neutral 56.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1204, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1235 2-day high would also close the Monday gap at 1.1238 and open the path toward the 1.1269 prior high
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.1204 tue low would expose the 1.1180 weekly low
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 near 1.1220 would shift the compression toward the lower half of the range
Lagarde speaks Wed 16:30 UTC; ECB commentary on French spreads or growth risks could materially shift this read
EUR/USD has rotated inside a 1.1180–1.1235 band since Monday's gap-down open. Asia-session advances have twice stalled at the 1.1235 week high, which sits at the 61.8% retracement of Friday's drop from the 1.1269 prior high. Tuesday's London session reversed the overnight push after the soft ZEW and wider French spreads, dropping price to a 1.1204 london low; it now trades just under the EMA(20) at 1.1218 with RSI(14) flat near 50, while lows keep stepping higher off the 1.1180 week low along the rising trendline.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1180, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.1235, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1235 week high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 1.1269 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.1204 london low and the rising trendline puts the 1.1180 week low and the 1.1160 range floor in focus
Repeated H1 closes back above the 1.1218 ema20 would shift the read toward a retest of the range top
Lagarde speaks Wed 16:30 UTC, after Lane, Nagel and Cipollone earlier in the day; this could materially shift this read
French lower-house budget vote today and the Moody's review are event risk for the range floor
Since Monday's gap-down from the 1.1190 weekly open, H1 has held a 1.1180–1.1235 range. Higher lows are pressing into a flat cap at the week high. Today's Asian push to 1.1235 was rejected, and London unwound it after the ZEW expectations miss and an oil-driven USD rebound. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.1219 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 45. It is testing rising support from the week low at the 1.1204 day low, roughly a 50% retrace of the week range.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1190, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1235, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1204 day low breaks rising support from the week low and exposes the 1.1190 weekly open and 1.1180 week low
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.1219 plus a close above the 1.1235 week high would turn focus to the 1.1269 friday high
US housing data at 12:30 UTC today and Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:01 UTC
Range-bound, flat EMAs · RSI 52 · price 1.12172
1.1180–1.1235 range: higher lows pressing into a flat week high.
The week opened with a gap down of about 48 pips from Friday's 1.1238 close. Since then price has held a 1.1180–1.1235 range, with lows stepping up from the 1.1180 week low to today's 1.1204 session low, while the 1.1235 week high capped both Monday and today's Asia session. London unwound the Asia push after the German and Eurozone ZEW sentiment misses and an oil-led USD rebound, leaving price just under a flat EMA(20) near 1.1220 with RSI(14) near 52. The range sits inside the 38.2–61.8% retracement of the Wed–Fri rally from the 1.1113 sept low to the 1.1269 prior high.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1235, 1.1269
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.1235 week high that also fills the gap to 1.1238 breaks the range top and exposes the 1.1269 prior high
A break of the 1.1204 session low would breach the higher-lows line and put the 1.1180 week low back in play
A close below the 1.1180 week low opens the 61.8% retracement near 1.1173 and the 1.1113 sept low
US ADP and housing data from 12:15 UTC, plus today's French budget revenue vote, could materially shift this read
Lagarde's speech on Wed at 16:30 UTC is the main event risk for the 1.1180–1.1235 range
1.1180–1.1235 range with higher lows pressing the cap.
The week opened on a ~48-pip gap down from Friday's 1.1238 prior close. Price has since held a 1.1180–1.1235 range, with the week low sitting near the 50% retracement of last Wednesday–Friday's rally and higher lows building at 1.1186 and the 1.1202 swing low. Tuesday's Asia push met rejection again at the 1.1235 week high, and price has eased back onto EMA(20) at 1.1221 into London as a firmer dollar on $110 oil and the ZEW sentiment miss weighed on EUR, while RSI(14) sits mid-range near 54.
Support: 1.1221, 1.1202, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1235 week high opens the unfilled gap to the 1.1238 prior close and last week's 1.1269 high (last wk high)
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.1202 swing low exposes the 1.1180 week low and the 50% retracement of the Oct 14-16 rally
Sustained trade below EMA(20) at 1.1221 would turn the pullback into a test of range support
French budget revenue vote today and US ADP/housing data at 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC is the main event risk for the 1.1185–1.1235 band
Higher lows under a flat 1.1235 cap; weekend gap unfilled.
EUR/USD opened the week on a gap lower to the 1.1180 week low. Since then it has carved higher lows, first 1.1186 at Monday's London open and then the 1.1202 Monday NY low, beneath a flat 1.1235 week high that sits on the 23.6% retracement of last week's 1.1113–1.1269 Wed–Fri impulse. Asia-session buying today lifted price back above EMA20 near 1.1221 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, though the gap to Friday's 1.1238 close remains unfilled as French political stress weighs on the euro and a soft USD keeps the 1.12 handle intact.
Support: 1.1221, 1.1202, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.1235 week high and 1.1238 Fri close fills the weekend gap and opens the 1.1269 prior high
Break of the higher lows trendline and EMA20 near 1.1221 puts the 1.1202 Monday NY low and the 1.1209 38.2% of the Wed–Fri impulse back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.1180 week low exposes the 1.1172 61.8% retracement of the Wed–Fri impulse
German ZEW at 09:00 UTC and ECB's Escrivá at 10:00 UTC could materially shift this range read, with US ADP and housing data later today
08:01 UTC
Range-bound, recovering from weekend gap · RSI 55 · price 1.12275
Higher lows under a flat 1.1235 cap, compressing inside Monday's range.
EUR/USD gapped about 48 pips lower at the weekly open on French political stress. Monday's London-open dip to 1.1186 held above the 1.1180 week low, and swing lows have since stepped higher, to 1.1202 in NY and 1.1209 in Asia. A softer USD lifted the pair back above EMA(20) near 1.1221 in the Asia session, with the German PPI beat at 06:00 UTC barely moving price. Supply has capped three tests at the 1.1235 week high, which is also the 61.8% retracement of the Friday high to week low drop, leaving the gap to Friday's 1.1238 close unfilled with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 1.12215, 1.12023, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
ZEW sentiment at 09:00 UTC and today's French budget revenue vote could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.1235 week high fills the fri close gap at 1.1238 and opens the path to the 1.1269 prior high
A break of the 1.1202 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1180 week low
Loss of ema20 at 1.1221 returns price to the middle of the range with the 1.1235 cap intact
1.1202–1.1235 range with rising lows since Monday's London dip.
The week opened on a gap down to the 1.1180 weekly low on French unrest. That low was reclaimed, and so was Monday's London-open false break to 1.1186, leaving price boxed between a 1.1202 range floor and a 1.1235 range top, about a quarter of the way back into the Wed–Fri impulse. A rising-lows line from Monday's dip carried Tuesday's Asia session back above EMA20 (~1.1221) and EMA50 (~1.1218) as DXY slipped, with RSI(14) near 60 and little reaction to the hot German PPI; the range top still sits just shy of Friday's 1.1238 close, so the gap is unfilled and last week's prior high at 1.1269 caps the broader structure.
Support: 1.1221, 1.1202, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1269
What it said to watch
ZEW at 09:00 UTC and ECB's Escrivá at 10:00 UTC could break the 1.1202–1.1235 range
H1 close above the 1.1235 range top fills Friday's gap and opens the path to the 1.1269 prior high
Loss of the rising lows and EMA20 puts the 1.1202 range floor back in play
Failure to hold 1.1202 exposes the 1.1180 weekly low and the 50% retracement of the Wed–Fri impulse near 1.1191
US ADP and housing data in the NY session, then Lagarde on Wednesday, could shift the read
06:01 UTC
Recovering within a range, pressing the week high · RSI 61 · price 1.12332
Weekend gap down mostly filled; higher lows since Monday's London-open dip.
The week opened with a roughly 48-pip gap down to 1.1190 on French unrest. Monday's London-open dip to 1.1186 held near the 50% retracement of last week's rally from 1.1113 to 1.1269, and price then rotated in a 1.1202–1.1234 range. A steady Asia-session climb today, as the DXY slipped toward 101.80, has lifted price back to the 1.1234 week high above EMA(20) near 1.1220, leaving the Friday close at 1.1238 as the remaining gap-fill level. RSI(14) is at 61, firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1202, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.1238 Friday close completes the gap fill and opens last week's high at 1.1269
Rejection at 1.1238 keeps the 1.1202–1.1234 range read intact, with EMA(20) at 1.1220 the first pullback test
A break of the 1.1202 higher low and the trendline exposes the 1.1180 week low and the 50% retracement
German ZEW at 09:00 UTC is the first test: a beat raises squeeze risk with EUR shorts crowded, a miss or a wider OAT-Bund spread revives downside pressure
US ADP and housing starts at 12:15–12:30 UTC are event risk for the USD leg in NY hours
Higher lows since weekly open, pressing Monday high below gap fill.
EUR gapped about 48 pips lower at the weekly open on French unrest. Demand absorbed the move at the 1.1180 weekly low. A London-session spike to 1.1186 on Monday was also recovered, and both lows sat between the 50% and 61.8% of last week's 1.1113–1.1269 rally fib. Price has since printed higher lows, from the 1.1202 NY low into Tuesday's Asia session, and now trades above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 61. It is retesting the 1.1234 Monday high just under the 1.1238 gap fill.
Support: 1.1219, 1.12023, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12344, 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1238 gap fill opens the path back to the 1.1269 prior high
Rejection at the 1.1234 Monday high keeps the 1.1180–1.1234 range intact
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.1202 NY low shifts structure back toward the 1.1180 weekly low
German ZEW at 09:00 UTC and French spread/protest headlines could materially shift this read
US ADP at 12:15 UTC is the next USD-side risk during NY hours
04:01 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift since Monday's open · RSI 56 · price 1.12275
Post-gap range 1.1180–1.1234 with higher lows since Monday.
French unrest gapped EUR/USD lower at Monday's open. Dips to the 1.1180 gap low at the Asia open and the London open both held between the 50% and 61.8% fib of last week's 1.1113–1.1269 rally, and price then rotated inside a 1.1202–1.1234 range, with Monday's NY low at 1.1202. Asia has lifted price back above EMA(20) into the Monday high, with RSI(14) near 56 and Monday's higher lows intact, while the gap fill at Friday's 1.1238 close is still open.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1202, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1238 gap fill opens the path to the 1.1269 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.1202 NY low breaks Monday's higher lows and puts the 1.1180 gap low back in play
ZEW sentiment at 09:00 UTC and US ADP/housing data from 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh French protest or OAT-Bund spread headlines remain the main unscheduled risk to the range
Lower highs from Friday's peak, higher lows off the gap low; tightening range.
French protest headlines gapped EUR down from Friday's 1.1238 close to a 1.1190 weekly open. Buyers stepped in at the 1.1180 gap low and again at the London-open dip to 1.1186, lifting price back toward the 38.2% fib of the Wed–Fri rally from 1.1113 to 1.1269. Since Monday's NY session the pair has compressed into a roughly 1.1209–1.1223 band below the descending trendline from the Friday prior high. Price sits just above EMA(20) and flat on EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 52 and hourly ranges shrinking through the Asia session.
Support: 1.1209, 1.1190, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the trendline and the Monday high at 1.1234 brings the 1.1238 gap fill and the 1.1269 prior high back into view
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 1.1209 exposes the weekly open at 1.1190 and the 1.1180 gap low
German ZEW at 09:00 UTC and French OAT-Bund spread headlines around 150bp could break the compression
US ADP and housing data at 12:15–12:30 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Range after weekend gap, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 1.12146
Contracting range below gap; higher lows vs lower highs.
The window is framed by Wednesday's flush into the NY open to the 1.1113 wed low and a Wed–Fri rally to the 1.1269 prior high. French protest headlines drove a bearish weekend gap to the 1.1180 gap low, and Monday's London-open dip held near the 50% retracement of that rally while the gap only partly filled (monday high 1.1234 vs Friday's 1.1238 close). Price now coils just under the ema20 and EMA(50) cluster near 1.1216 with RSI(14) at 46, compressing between higher lows and lower highs.
Support: 1.12023, 1.11803, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.12344, 1.12691
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1202 ny low breaks Monday's higher-low sequence and re-exposes the 1.1180 gap low and 1.1175/80 support
H1 close above the 1.1234 monday high completes the gap fill toward 1.1238 and reopens the 1.1269 prior high
German PPI (06:00 UTC) and ZEW (09:00 UTC) on Tuesday could break the compression; French political headlines remain the dominant EUR risk
Loss of the 38.2% retracement near 1.1209 on a closing basis shifts focus to the 50% area around 1.1191
Lower high under 1.1269, unfilled gap, tight compression below ema20.
Sunday's open gapped about 48 pips below Friday's 1.1238 close on French protest and spread headlines. The 1.1180 weekly low and a London-open probe to 1.1186 both held near the 50% retracement of the Wed–Fri rally, with rejection there returning price above the 1.1190 weekly open, but Monday's high at 1.1234 stalled short of the gap fill and printed a lower high under last week's 1.1269 prior high. Since NY hours price has compressed in a roughly 10-pip band just below the ema20 near 1.1216, with RSI(14) flat around 49.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1190, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1238 fills the gap and breaks the lower-highs line, putting the 1.1269 prior high back in play
Loss of the 1.1202 ny low exposes the 1.1190 weekly open and the 1.1180 weekly low
Break below the 1.1180 weekly low clears the 50% Wed–Fri fib; the 61.8% level at 1.1172 sits below it
German PPI (06:00 UTC) and ZEW (09:00 UTC) on Tuesday could break the compression; OAT-Bund spread headlines remain the wider event risk