Higher lows since 1.1113 under a 1.1260-1.1276 range cap.
The slide from 1.1450 bottomed at the 1.1113 window low. Price has since printed higher lows at 1.1180 (week low) and 1.1204 (swing low), with EMA20 crossed above EMA50, but the 1.1260-1.1276 range cap has turned price back three times, most recently as a lower high at 1.1260. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 27 pips, and the pair sits mid-range as a softer USD on lower oil runs into EUR drag from French spread stress.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1260, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1276 range cap breaks the multi-week ceiling and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1204 swing low, then the 1.1180 week low, would break the higher-lows trendline
A move back through the 1.1113 window low would resume the broader downtrend
Lagarde speech Wed 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read, given French OAT/Bund spread stress
US S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the next USD catalyst against the compressed ATR backdrop
17:01 UTC
Prior downtrend stalled, basing in a range · RSI 55 · price 1.1230
Higher low at 1.1180 inside a 1.1113–1.1276 range, capped below the range high.
The lower-high, lower-low sequence from 1.1455 ended at the 1.1113 swing low. Since then price has built a higher low at 1.1180, which held between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the bounce, and it is trading above both the ema20 and EMA50. The latest push stalled at 1.1260, just under the 1.1270 range high, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 28 pips from the expansion seen during the decline. The bounce tracks USD softness after weak US housing data, while French spread stress is limiting euro follow-through.
Support: 1.1221, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1270, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1270 range high, then the 1.1285 prior high, breaks the multi-week lower-high sequence
Loss of the ema20 near 1.1221 returns price to the middle of the range
Failure to hold the 1.1180 higher low reopens the 1.1113 swing low
Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC and US S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Range after September downtrend, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 1.1213
Multi-week range 1.1113–1.1276, higher low and lower high tightening.
The September downtrend from 1.1456 has stalled into a 1.1113–1.1276 range. The rally from the 1.1113 sept low capped at 1.1269, just under the 1.1276 range top, and the pullback held a higher low at 1.1180, so price is coiling near the 38.2% retracement with EMA20 and EMA50 converged and ATR(14) compressed to about 27 pips. French fiscal stress and the soft ZEW are weighing on EUR, but a softer USD on fading Fed-hike bets has kept the pair boxed below the 1.1235 band top.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1235 band top shifts focus to the 1.1276 range top; a break there ends the multi-week range read
Failure to hold the 1.1180 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 1.1113 sept low
Lagarde speaks Wed 21 Oct 16:30 UTC, and the French budget vote and Moody's review are pending; any of these could resolve the compression
US S&P Global PMIs and UoM inflation expectations Fri 23 Oct could materially shift the USD side of this read
Higher low at 1.1180 after 1.1113 low; range 1.1180-1.1270.
The lower-high sequence from 1.1457 ended with a false break below the 1.1150 lows into a 1.1113 swing low, followed by a recovery to a 1.1269 swing high and a higher low at 1.1180, near the 50-61.8% fib zone of that leg. Price now holds above the EMA50 near 1.1205 after an EMA20/50 cross, while closes since Friday are capped near 1.1235 (range cap). ATR(14) near 28 pips is down from early-month readings, as French political stress weighs on EUR and a soft USD cushions the downside.
Support: 1.1205, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1270
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1270 swing high breaks the range and the post-low recovery sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1180 higher low reopens the 1.1113 swing low
Sustained trade below the ema50 near 1.1205 would undo the EMA20/50 cross
ZEW today, Lagarde Wed 16:30 UTC and US PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
Repeated rejection at the 1.1235 range cap keeps the 1.1180-1.1270 range intact
05:01 UTC
Downtrend paused, basing in a range · RSI 54 · price 1.12296
Lower highs at range top, higher low off 1.1113.
The slide from 1.1478 has stalled into a 1.1113-1.1285 range, with the range top capping three times on a shallow lower-high sequence and the latest rejection at last week's 1.1269 week high after the USD correction faded on French turmoil. The 1.1180 higher low held near the 61.8% fib of the 1.1113 swing low to 1.1269 rally, and EMA20 has crossed above EMA50 with price above both. ATR(14) near 28 pips is compressing versus early-month expansion, consistent with a range awaiting a catalyst.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1269 week high and 1.1285 range top breaks the lower-high trendline and ends the range read
Failure to hold the 1.1180 higher low reopens the 1.1113 swing low
ZEW sentiment at 09:00 UTC and French spread headlines could materially shift this read
US S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and FOMC next week are the main USD risk to the range
01:01 UTC
Downtrend stalled, sideways for three weeks · RSI 52 · price 1.12151
1.1113–1.1276 range; higher low at 1.1180.
The late-September slide from 1.1478 has given way to a three-week range between the 1.1113 window low and the 1.1276 range top. The dip below the 1.1151 range floor was a false break, reversed within two bars, and the Warsh-driven USD pullback carried price back to 1.1269 before it stalled just under the range top. Price now sits on a flat ema20 mid-range above a higher low at 1.1180, with ATR(14) near 28 pips, well below the selloff-phase readings, as French spread stress keeps EUR upside capped.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1243, 1.1272
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.1243 swing high puts the 1.1270–1.1276 range top back in play; a break there ends the range read
Failure to hold the 1.1180 higher low, near the 61.8% fib of the 1.1113–1.1269 rally, exposes the 1.1151 range floor
A close below the 1.1113 window low resumes the broader downtrend
German PPI and ZEW on Tue (06:00/09:00 UTC) and US PMIs on Fri 13:45 UTC could break the compression
OAT-Bund spread widening past ~150bp is the main EUR-specific risk to the range floor