EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Recovery off Monday low, now compressing · RSI 55 · price 1.12326
Higher lows vs lower highs since Tue.
EUR/USD gapped down to 1.1180 at Monday's open, and the Mon-Tue impulse peaked at the 1.1260 tue high in NY hours. That spike, driven by falling oil and yields rather than euro-area strength, met rejection at the October ceiling. Since then the wed low at 1.1214 has held above the 1.1204 tue low while the wed high at 1.1240 sits below Tuesday's peak, so higher lows and lower highs are squeezing price into a narrowing band. The pair is holding just above the ema20 near 1.1228 and the 38.2% retracement of the impulse, with RSI(14) near 55 and ATR(14) contracting to about 11 pips.
Support: 1.1228, 1.1214, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1240 wed high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.1260 tue high back in play
A sustained break of 1.1260 would expose the 1.1269 fri high; another failure there extends the October lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 1.1214 wed low breaks the higher-lows line toward the 1.1204 tue low and the 61.8% of the impulse
US Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) and ECB's Panetta (12:15 UTC) could resolve the compression
22:02 UTC
Sideways, range compressing · RSI 55 · price 1.12326
Higher lows since Monday vs lower highs since Friday.
Monday's gap-down open near 1.1180 filled during the Asia session, and price has since held a 1.1204–1.1260 range. Tuesday's NY-session spike to the 1.1260 week high came on the soft US housing data and fully faded, a rejection that lines up with the French spread stress capping the euro. Wednesday compressed between the 1.1214 wed low, tested in both London and NY, and the 1.1240 wed high, with the higher lows from Monday's London low meeting the lower highs from Friday's 1.1269 prior high. Price sits just above EMA(20) near 1.1228, inside the 61.8–78.6% zone of Tuesday's impulse, with RSI(14) flat around 55.
Support: 1.1228, 1.1214, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1214 wed low and 1.1204 tue low breaks the higher lows line and opens the 1.1200 psych / 1.1186 area
H1 close above the 1.1240 wed high breaks the lower highs line and brings the 1.1260 week high back in play for a sixth test of the cap
Panetta (12:15 UTC) and US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday, then Friday's flash PMIs, could resolve the compression
OAT-Bund spread clearing the 159-160bp highs would shift the range read lower
21:02 UTC
Range-bound, compressing after rejection at week high · RSI 56 · price 1.12332
Higher lows from Monday's gap low beneath lower highs from Tuesday's 1.1260 peak.
Buyers absorbed Monday's gap-down weekly open at 1.1190, and EUR/USD has since printed higher lows at the 1.1204 tuesday low and the 1.1214 wed lows. Tuesday's NY-session spike to the 1.1260 week high on soft US housing data was rejected within the hour, and Wednesday traded a tight 1.1214–1.1240 session range capped by the wed high. Price at 1.1233 sits just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) in the mid-50s and ATR near 11 pips. It is compressing between the rising-lows and lower-highs lines as French spread stress offsets the softer dollar.
Support: 1.12137, 1.12041, 1.11902
Resistance: 1.12404, 1.12603
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.1240 wed high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.1260 week high back in play, the area the digest flags as a repeated cap.
Failure to hold the 1.1214 wed lows breaks the rising-lows line and the 61.8% of the mon-tue leg near 1.1211.
Below the 1.1204 tuesday low, the weekly open at 1.1190 comes into view.
Thu 12:15 UTC ECB's Panetta and 12:30 UTC US jobless claims, then Friday's flash PMIs, could resolve the current compression.
Converging higher lows and lower highs inside the 1.1180-1.1260 weekly range.
EUR/USD gapped lower at Monday's open to the 1.1180 week low, filled the gap and extended into Tuesday's NY session before rejection at the 1.1260 week high, with French spread stress capping the euro. Since then price has compressed between higher lows and lower highs and is holding near the 50% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday rally around 1.1220, fractionally below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) flat near 50. Wednesday's range, from the 1.1214 wed low to the 1.1240 wed high, frames the compression.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1204, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1214 wed low and the higher-lows trendline breaks the sequence and exposes the 1.1204 tue low and 1.1200
H1 close above the 1.1240 wed high clears the lower-highs line and brings the 1.1260 week high and 1.1269 prior high back into play
Thu US jobless claims and ECB's Panetta, then Fri flash PMIs, could break the compression either side
Contracting range 1.1204–1.1260; higher lows against lower highs since Tuesday.
The week opened with a gap down to 1.1190, which was filled quickly. Since then H1 has compressed between Tuesday's NY-session spike to the 1.1260 tue high and a run of higher lows at the 1.1204 tue low and the 1.1214 wed low. The tue high spike was rejected as French OAT stress capped the euro despite soft US housing data, and the wed low sits in the 50–61.8% zone of the mon-tue rally. Into late NY hours price has reclaimed the ema20 near 1.1228, with RSI(14) near 58, and is pressing the lower-high line from Tuesday's peak.
Support: 1.1228, 1.1214, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1260 tue high, then the 1.1269 fri high, would break the range cap rejected repeatedly this month
Loss of the higher-low line and a close below the 1.1204 tue low opens 1.1200 and the 1.1190 weekly open
Failure back below the ema20 keeps price boxed inside the range
Thu 12:15–12:30 UTC Panetta and US Jobless Claims, then Fri flash PMIs, could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Range-bound, mild upward tilt off the week low · RSI 55 · price 1.12323
Contracting range 1.1214–1.1238 with higher lows after Tuesday's 1.1260 rejection.
The week opened with a gap lower to 1.1180, below the 1.1190 weekly open. The gap filled into Tuesday's NY session, when the US housing miss and a soft dollar lifted the pair to the 1.1260 week high, but it closed well off that high as French OAT stress capped the euro. Since then price has compressed between rising lows near 1.1214, set twice on Wednesday during London and NY hours, and supply around last Friday's 1.1238 prior close. Price is back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) sits near 55, mid-range.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1204, 1.1190
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1260
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1238 prior close opens the path back toward the 1.1260 week high, the fifth monthly cap in the 1.1250–1.1260 area
A break of the rising lows near 1.1214 exposes the 1.1204 range low and the 1.1190 weekly open
Lagarde's 16:30 UTC remarks are not yet reflected in the news; any pushback on December hike pricing could shift this read
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Friday's flash PMIs are the next catalysts for a range break
Contracting range 1.1204–1.1260 with converging trendlines.
EUR/USD has compressed since Monday's gap-down open, which set the weekly low at 1.1180. Tuesday's NY-session spike was rejected at the 1.1260 range cap, and Wednesday printed a lower high at 1.1238 (wed high). Lows have risen to 1.1204 (tue low) and 1.1214 (wed low), so price now sits on the rising trendline. Price has slipped back below the EMA(20) at 1.1225 and is holding the 50% retracement of the Mon-Tue advance, with RSI(14) at 44. French OAT stress has capped EUR rallies, while a soft USD after weak US housing data has limited the downside.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1204, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1238, 1.1260
What it said to watch
H1 close below the wed low at 1.1214 breaks the rising trendline and exposes the tue low at 1.1204
Failure to hold 1.1204 confirms a lower-low and opens the weekly low at 1.1180 from Monday's gap
Reclaim of the ema20 and a close above the wed high at 1.1238 breaks the lower highs sequence, putting the 1.1260 range cap back in view
Lagarde's 16:30 UTC remarks, not yet reflected in price, could materially shift this read; Thursday US jobless claims are the next scheduled risk
The week opened with a gap down from Friday's 1.1238 close to the 1.1180 weekly low. The Monday–Tuesday rally filled that gap on soft USD after the weak housing data, then met rejection at the 1.1260 range top during Tuesday's NY session as French OAT stress weighed on EUR. Since then the London-session dip held the 1.1214 wed low above the 1.1204 tue low and the 61.8% retracement, while the early-NY bounce stalled at the 1.1237 wed high. Price now sits near the 50% level just under a flat EMA(20), with RSI(14) at 47, compressed between the higher lows and lower highs lines.
Support: 1.12137, 1.12041, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12375, 1.12603, 1.12691
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1237 wed high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.1260 range top, with the 1.1269 prior high just above
A break of the 1.1214 wed low breaches the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1204 tue low and the 61.8% fib
Failure to hold the 1.1204 tue low shifts focus back to the 1.1180 weekly low
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Friday's flash PMIs on both sides follow
Lower highs and higher lows since Friday, coiling around EMA20.
Since Sunday's gap-down open near 1.1190, EUR/USD has been boxed in. Monday's London-open drop to the monday low at 1.1186 reversed, and Tuesday's NY spike to the tuesday high at 1.1260 was rejected as French bond stress capped EUR while a soft USD kept a floor under the pair. That leaves lower highs from the friday high at 1.1269, and higher lows from the mon-tue lows near 1.1203 to today's wed low at 1.1214, which held the 61.8% retracement of the Mon–Tue rally. Price is pinned at EMA(20) near 1.1227 with RSI(14) flat at 49 and the H1 range compressing, with the wed high at 1.1238 overhead.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1203, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaks at 16:30 UTC; a cautious tone could break the coil lower, hawkish confirmation tests the tuesday high at 1.1260
H1 close above the wed high at 1.1238 and the lower-highs line opens a retest of 1.1260 and the friday high at 1.1269
Break of the wed low at 1.1214 and the higher-lows line exposes the mon-tue lows at 1.1203, then the monday low at 1.1186
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Friday's flash PMIs on both sides could resolve the range
After Sunday's gap down to the weekly low, EUR/USD has printed higher lows at 1.1186 in Monday's London open, 1.1204 on Tuesday and 1.1214 today. Price is back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 56. Tuesday's NY-session spike to the week high at 1.1260 was rejected as French spread stress capped EUR. Today's low held at the 61.8% retracement of the Monday–Tuesday leg, and price now sits just under the prior close at 1.1238.
Support: 1.12137, 1.12041, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12382, 1.12603, 1.12691
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC: a pushback on the priced December hike could break the higher-low sequence
H1 close below today low at 1.1214 breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the tuesday low at 1.1204
Failure to hold 1.1204 brings the weekly low near 1.1180 back into play
Acceptance above the prior close at 1.1238 reopens the week high at 1.1260; a break there brings last Friday's prior high at 1.1269 into view
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg of this range
The week opened on a gap down that filled in the Asia session. Monday's London open drop set the week low at 1.1186, and lows have stepped higher since. Tuesday's NY-session spike to the 1.1260 week high came on a softer USD as oil and yields fell on US-Iran hopes, but it faded as French bonds sold off. That kept price below the prior-week high at 1.1269. Wednesday's London dip held at 1.1214, near the 61.8% retracement of the Mon-Tue leg, and the NY open bounce has price back above EMA(20) at about 1.1228 with RSI(14) near 54, just under Tuesday's NY close at 1.1237.
Support: 1.1228, 1.1214, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags downside asymmetry if she leans on growth risks
H1 close below the 1.1214 Wed low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1186 week low
H1 close above 1.1237 (Tue NY close) reopens a test of the 1.1260 week high, with the prior high at 1.1269 above it
Repeated failure to hold EMA(20) would shift the range read lower within 1.1186-1.1260
12:01 UTC
Range with rising lows, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 1.12314
Higher lows since Monday under a 1.1260 cap.
The week opened with a gap down to 1.1190. Since then EURUSD has printed higher lows: the 1.1180 week low, Tuesday's 1.1204 tue low and today's 1.1214 wed low, which sits near the 50% level of the week range fib. Tuesday's NY-hours spike to the 1.1260 week high came on the oil-driven USD drop and was rejected below last week's 1.1269 prior high, as French OAT stress kept EUR capped. Price has rotated around EMA(20) near 1.1227 since. The 10:00 UTC bar recovered off the London dip back toward the 1.1237 day high, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 1.12137, 1.12041, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12372, 1.12603, 1.12691
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.1237 day high reopens a test of the 1.1260 week high and the 1.1269 prior high
Break of the higher lows line and the 1.1214 wed low exposes the 1.1204 tue low
Failure to hold the 1.1204 tue low puts the 1.1180 week low back in play and breaks the rising-lows read
Lower highs from 1.1260 compressing into higher lows inside the 1.1180–1.1260 week range.
EUR/USD has rotated inside 1.1180–1.1260 since Monday's gap-lower open. Tuesday's NY-session spike to the 1.1260 tue high came on USD softness after weak US housing data, but it met rejection, and hourly bars have printed lower highs since. Price now sits on the 50% retracement of the week's range near 1.1220, below the ema20 at 1.1225, with higher lows from Monday's London low converging at today's low of 1.1214. RSI(14) near 42 reads as fading momentum rather than oversold, and French spread stress keeps EUR heavy ahead of Lagarde.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1204, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1214 today low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.1204 tue low and the 61.8% retracement near 1.1211
Failure to hold 1.1204 brings Monday's 1.1180 week low back into view
A recovery above the ema20 at 1.1225 and the lower-highs line would reopen the 1.1260 tue high, with the prior wk hi at 1.1269 capping the range top
Lagarde speaks at 16:30 UTC; a growth-risk tone versus validation of a December hike could resolve the current compression
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1260 spike inside a 1.1204–1.1238 band.
The week opened with a gap down from Friday's 1.1238 close to the 1.1180 week low, and the gap filled within the Asian session. Since then price has held a 1.1204–1.1238 band, apart from Tuesday's NY spike to the 1.1260 week high on falling oil and yields, which was rejected within the hour. Since that rejection highs have stepped lower, and London this morning pushed price back below the EMA(20) near 1.1222. It now sits between the 50% and 61.8% of the week-range fib as French spread pressure weighs on EUR.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1200, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1238, 1.1260
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1204 range floor exposes the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1180 week low
Recovery above the EMA(20) at 1.1222 and the lower-highs line would neutralise this morning's fade
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC is the main event risk; a move through the Friday close at 1.1238 toward the 1.1260 week high would challenge the range cap
Loss of the 61.8% week-range fib at 1.1211 would retrace most of Monday-Tuesday's advance
09:01 UTC
Sideways, range tightening · RSI 44 · price 1.12251
Higher lows under lower highs inside 1.1186–1.1260.
The week opened with a gap below Friday's 1.1238 prior close. Since then the pair has printed higher lows at the 1.1186 Monday low (London open) and the 1.1204 Tuesday low, while Tuesday's NY-session spike on the oil and US-Iran headlines met rejection at the 1.1260 week high, under last week's 1.1269 prior high. Price is back at the 50% retracement of the Mon–Tue leg and just under a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 44 as Wednesday's London session holds a 1.1217–1.1239 band. French spread stress continues to cap rallies.
Support: 1.12174, 1.12041, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12382, 1.12603, 1.12691
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 1.1260 week high is the level for rejection or break
H1 close above the 1.1238 prior close opens a retest of the 1.1260 week high and the lower-highs line
Loss of today's low at 1.1217 and the 61.8% fib near 1.1215 puts the higher-lows line and the 1.1204 Tuesday low in play
A break below 1.1204 ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1186 Monday low
Close above the 1.1269 prior high invalidates the tightening-range read
08:01 UTC
Range with higher lows, momentum fading · RSI 40 · price 1.12183
Higher lows since Monday under a 1.1260 cap; price on the rising trendline.
Since Monday's gap-down open near 1.1190, the pair has printed higher lows, from the 1.1180 week low to the 1.1204 tuesday low. Tuesday's NY-session spike to the 1.1260 week high was rejected, in line with this month's 1.1250–1.1260 cap. Asia and early London today have drifted back below EMA(20) at 1.1227 to the rising trendline and the 50% fib of the week range near 1.1220, with RSI(14) easing to ~40 as French fiscal stress weighs on EUR; the 1.1238 friday close is the nearest pivot above.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1204, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1227, 1.1238, 1.1260
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising trendline and the 1.1204 tuesday low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1180 week low
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.1227 and the 1.1238 friday close puts the 1.1260 week high back in play
Lagarde speech at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read: energy pass-through comments vs growth-risk framing
French protest and spread headlines remain a source of EUR-specific pressure
Contracting range 1.1180–1.1269, price testing rising trendline.
The week opened with a weekend gap down to the 1.1180 week low, a level revisited on Monday's London-open flush to 1.1186. Tuesday's NY session then lifted the pair to the 1.1260 week high on the weak US housing data and lower oil and yields, but the move was rejected below last Friday's 1.1269 high. Since then price has bled lower through the Asia session on French fiscal stress, slipping under EMA(20) and below the 61.8% retracement of Tuesday's rally with RSI(14) near 43, and is now leaning on the rising trendline of higher lows near 1.1219.
Support: 1.1219, 1.1204, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1238, 1.1260
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1219 trendline breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1204 tuesday low
Failure at the 1.1204 tuesday low reopens the 1.1180 week low and weekend-gap area
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.1226 and the 1.1238 prior close would put price back in the upper half of the range
H1 close above the 1.1260 week high breaks the lower-highs line from last Friday
Lagarde speech at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.1205–1.1260 range since Monday's gap fill, higher-low sequence intact.
The week opened with a gap down to the 1.1180 week low, filled by Tuesday, and the higher-low trendline from Monday's London low through the 1.1205 tuesday low is intact. Tuesday's NY-session spike to the 1.1260 week high on lower oil and a softer USD was rejected back under the 1.1250 cap, short of last week's 1.1269 prior high. Wednesday's Asia session drifted to the 1.1223 asian low, near the 61.8% retrace of the Tuesday leg, with price just under a flat EMA(20) at 1.1227 and EMA(50), RSI(14) neutral near 50 and ATR(14) compressed to ~8 pips.
Support: 1.1223, 1.1205, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1227, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC (Nagel 07:15, Cipollone 08:00 first) could materially shift this read; an H1 close above the 1.1260 week high breaks the range top.
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 1.1227 resumes the drift toward the top of the Tuesday leg.
Loss of the 1.1223 asian low takes price below the 61.8% fib, toward the higher-low trendline near 1.1217.
Failure to hold the 1.1205 tuesday low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 1.1180 week low.
Oil and US-Iran headlines remain the main USD driver within the range.
1.1180–1.1260 weekly range with higher lows; NY spike above 1.1250 rejected.
The week opened with a gap below Friday's close at 1.1238 and printed the week low at 1.1180. Lows have stepped up since: Monday's London low held at 1.1186 and Tuesday's London dip held at 1.1204. Tuesday's NY rally came as oil-driven USD softness lifted the pair to the 1.1260 week high, but it was rejected back under the 1.1250 psych cap, the fifth failure there this month. Price has since drifted to the 61.8% fib of that rally near 1.1226, with EMA(20) flat at price and RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s.
Support: 1.12256, 1.12041, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12382, 1.1250, 1.12603
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC, preceded by Nagel 07:15 and Cipollone 08:00, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.1250 psych cap and the 1.1260 week high would break the range top
Failure to hold the 1.1204 tuesday low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.1180 week low
Recovery through the 1.1238 friday close would put price back in the upper half of the range
1.1180–1.1260 weekly range with rising lows; Tuesday's NY spike rejected below week high.
The week opened with a gap down to the 1.1180 week low, and lows have stepped higher since, through Monday's London-open dip to 1.1186 and Tuesday's low at 1.1204. Tuesday's NY session push on USD softness from US-Iran headlines and weak housing data tagged the 1.1260 week high but was rejected back under the 1.1250 cap, and price has since faded from the post-NY high at 1.1239. Price now sits flat in the Asian range around 1.1225, a touch under EMA(20) near 1.1228 and between the 38.2% and 50% week-range fib, with French spread stress keeping EUR heavy.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1204, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1260
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC is the key event risk for this range read
H1 close above the 1.1250 cap and week high at 1.1260 breaks the range top that rejected Tuesday
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.1224 and the 50% week-range fib near 1.1220 exposes the tuesday low at 1.1204 and the higher-lows trendline
A break of the higher-lows trendline reopens the 1.1180 week low and the Monday gap
1.1202–1.1260 weekly range; lower highs since Tuesday's NY spike, price back at 61.8% of the Tuesday leg.
The week opened with a gap down to 1.1190 from Friday's 1.1238 close, set the monday low at 1.1186 into London open, and has since held a 1.1202–1.1260 range, with Monday and Tuesday lows forming the range floor near 1.1204. Tuesday's NY leg on a softer USD, as Iran-deal hopes knocked oil and yields lower, spiked to the 1.1260 week high but closed back under the 1.1250 cap, a false break consistent with the repeated stalls there this month. Asia has drifted through lower highs to the 61.8% fib of the Tuesday leg at 1.1226, just under ema20 and flat on EMA(50), with RSI(14) parked near 50.
Support: 1.12256, 1.1204, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12284, 1.1250, 1.12603
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above ema20 (1.1228) and the lower highs line puts the 1.1250 cap back in play; acceptance above the 1.1260 week high invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 1.1226 exposes the range floor at 1.1204
A break below the range floor opens the monday low at 1.1186
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC, after Lane, Nagel and Cipollone this morning, could materially shift this read, alongside French spread headlines
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and US-Iran headlines remain the USD-side swing factors
The week opened Monday with a gap down to the 1.1180 weekly low from Friday's 1.1238 prior close. Since then H1 has printed higher lows: Tuesday's London dip on the ZEW miss held at the 1.1204 tuesday low. Into the NY session, US-Iran deal reports pulled oil and yields lower and spiked price to the 1.1260 tuesday high, but it was rejected back under the 1.1250 cap and stayed below Friday's 1.1269 high. Through the Asia session price has eased onto the 61.8% fib of that leg near 1.1226, just under a flattening EMA(20) at ~1.1228, with RSI(14) back to ~52.
Support: 1.1226, 1.1204, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC, with Lane, Nagel and Cipollone earlier in London, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 61.8% fib and the 1.1204 tuesday low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1180 weekly low
Acceptance back above the 1.1238 prior close reopens the 1.1250 cap and the 1.1260 tuesday high
A close above the 1.1269 friday high breaks the lower-highs line and invalidates the range read
01:01 UTC
Range with higher lows, momentum cooling · RSI 54 · price 1.12253
Higher lows since Monday's gap open, capped at the 1.1260 week high.
The week opened with a gap below Friday's 1.1238 prior close and has since built higher lows: 1.1186 in Monday's London session, then the 1.1204 Tuesday low. Lower oil on US-Iran deal hopes softened USD and drove Tuesday's NY-session push to the 1.1260 week high, but that wick was rejected around the 1.1250 cap and price has slipped back below EMA(20) during Asia. It now sits on the 61.8% retrace of Tuesday's rally near 1.1226, with EMA(50) at 1.1222 just underneath, and RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.1222, 1.12041, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12382, 1.12603, 1.12691
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC is the swing factor: hike signalling could test the 1.1260 week high again, while a growth/France focus points back toward the 1.1204 tuesday low
H1 close below 1.1204 tuesday low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.1180 week low
H1 acceptance above 1.1260 week high clears this month's repeated cap and brings the 1.1269 friday high into play
Holding the ema50 and the 61.8% fib near 1.1222–1.1226 keeps Tuesday's rally structure intact; reclaiming 1.1238 prior close firms it
1.1180–1.1260 range, higher lows since Monday, capped above 1.1250.
The week opened gapped below Friday's close at 1.1238 and printed the week low at 1.1180, and lows have stepped higher since: Monday's London-open dip held 1.1186 and Tuesday's low held 1.1204. The NY session on Tuesday drove the main leg as easing oil on US-Iran deal hopes softened USD, lifting price from the tue low to the week high at 1.1260 before rejection just above the 1.1250 cap. Price is now pinned to EMA(20) near 1.1228, with the ema50 at 1.1225 just below, the 61.8% retracement of that leg at 1.1226, RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR(14) near 10 pips.
Support: 1.12247, 1.12041, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12382, 1.12603, 1.12691
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1260 week high breaks the 1.1250 cap and exposes the prior wk hi at 1.1269
Acceptance above the fri close at 1.1238 is needed to restore the Tuesday NY upside momentum
Loss of the ema50 at 1.1225 and the rising lows trendline puts the tue low at 1.1204 back in play; below that the week low at 1.1180 is exposed
ECB speakers Lane, Nagel and Cipollone, then Lagarde at 16:30 UTC Wednesday, could materially shift this read