EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Sideways, intraday range · RSI 57 · price 1.12345
1.1214–1.1240 day range; Asia higher lows into swing high.
Wednesday held a 1.1214–1.1240 range. London's dip below the Asian low found demand at the 1.1214 day low, NY printed the 1.1240 day high, and a sharp late-NY drop to 1.1215 was fully reclaimed. Asia drift since the rollover low at 1.1229 has retraced ~78% of that drop into the 1.1235 swing high, with RSI(14) neutral near 57 and ATR around 3 pips as a soft USD offsets French-yield pressure on EUR.
Support: 1.12292, 1.12137
Resistance: 1.12355, 1.12404, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1235 swing high and 1.1240 day high opens the 1.1250 range cap
Failure to hold the 1.1229 rollover low returns price to mid-range and the 1.1214 day low
Thin Asia session; Thursday's 12:30 UTC jobless claims is the next scheduled catalyst
23:32 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 58 · price 1.12332
26-pip range, floor defended three times.
Wednesday held a 26-pip range between the 1.1214 range low and the 1.1240 day high. The floor held three times, on the London low, the NY low and the late-NY flush, as French OAT stress weighed on EUR and a soft USD limited the downside. Early Asia is pressing the 1.1235 swing high and holding above the 1.1227 Asia low set at the rollover gap, with ATR(14) compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.12271, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.12355, 1.12404
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1240 day high breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 1.1227 Asia low reopens the 1.1214 range low
Repeated stalls at the 1.1235 swing high keep the range read intact
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and ECB's Panetta 12:15 UTC could shift this read
Two-sided range 1.1214–1.1240, early Asia compressing mid-range.
London and NY carved a 1.1214–1.1240 day range. The day low held three times, and spikes into the 1.1235 swing high and 1.1240 day high were sold each time, as French OAT stress kept EUR heavy despite a soft USD. Early Asia is pinned at 1.1227–1.1233 above the rollover low, RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR(14) near 3 pips.
Support: 1.1227, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1227 rollover low puts the 1.1214 day low back in play
Break of the 1.1214 day low ends the range read and exposes the 1.1200 zone
Close above the 1.1240 day high invalidates the range; the 1.1235 swing high has capped three bounces
ECB's Panetta 12:15 GMT and US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC Thursday could shift this read
23:01 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 1.12295
Wide intraday range 1.1214–1.1240; early Asia compressing mid-range.
Choppy 27-pip day range: the 1.1214 day low held three times across London and NY, while a late-NY push to the 1.1240 day high was rejected within an hour. Early Asia is drifting near 1.1230 between the 1.1227 gap low left at the rollover and the 1.1235 late-ny high, around the 38.2–50% retrace of the late-NY leg. A soft USD and the capped EUR digest leave no driver for a break yet.
Support: 1.1227, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1227 gap low puts the 1.1214 day low back in play
Close above the 1.1235 late-ny high reopens a test of the 1.1240 day high
A break of the 1.1214 day low ends the range read
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and ECB's Panetta at 12:15 UTC could shift this read
22:46 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 54 · price 1.12298
24h range 1.1214–1.1240, price mid-range in thin early Asia.
Wednesday ranged 1.1214–1.1240, with the day low probed three times across London and NY. Each probe was rejected, including the late-NY drop off the day high, which was retraced to the ny recovery highs near 1.1235. EUR stays heavy under the 1.1250 ceiling as French spread stress offsets a soft USD. Early Asia is flat near 1.1230 after a small rollover gap, with the gap low at 1.1227 just below.
Support: 1.1227, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1240, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1227 gap low exposes the 1.1214 day low; a fourth test there risks a range break
Break above the 1.1240 day high puts the 1.1250 ceiling back in play
Thu 12:15 UTC Panetta and 12:30 UTC US jobless claims are the next scheduled risks; Asian hours carry no data, so the range is likely to hold until then
22:32 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 1.12303
1.1214–1.1240 range, lower high at 1.1235.
Early Asia session finds EURUSD pinned near 1.1230, sitting between a flat EMA20 and EMA50 inside the 1.1214–1.1240 range that held through London and NY. The range floor was defended three times. NY's push to the 1.1240 session high failed and the NY drop reached 1.1215, while the rebound stalled at a 1.1235 lower high. ATR is compressing to about 3–4 pips after rollover as DXY stays boxed in its 101.60–101.80 band.
Support: 1.1227, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1240, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1240 session high breaks the range and brings the 1.1250 ceiling from the digest into view
Loss of the 1.1227 range mid exposes the 1.1214 range floor; a close below it ends the range read
Rejection at the 1.1235 lower high keeps the NY drop retracement capped near its 61.8% level
ECB's Panetta (12:15 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) Thursday are the next scheduled risk
22:17 UTC
Sideways, range-bound · RSI 56 · price 1.12316
1.1214–1.1240 range, floor held three times.
London and NY traded a 1.1214–1.1240 range. The range floor near 1.1215 held three times, each a false break below the Asian low that was quickly reclaimed. Early Asia is flat near 1.1232, below the 1.1235 rebound high and about 65% back into the evening drop from the 1.1240 day high, with French spread stress keeping the topside heavy.
Support: 1.1229, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1215 range floor breaks the day's range and exposes the 1.1200 zone
Acceptance above the 1.1240 day high opens a path toward the 1.1250–1.1260 cap
Failure to hold the 1.1229 late low returns price to mid-range
ECB's Panetta (Thu 12:15 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could reset the range
24-pip range 1.1214–1.1240, flat lows held three times.
London and NY churned inside 1.1214–1.1240. Buyers stepped in three times at the 1.1214 day low, while supply capped the 1.1240 day high as French spread stress weighed on EUR. Early Asia has filled the rollover gap back from the 1.1227 gap low, and price sits mid-range with ATR(14) near 5 pips.
Support: 1.12271, 1.12142
Resistance: 1.12404, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1240 day high breaks the range toward the 1.1250 range cap, which has capped EUR/USD five times this month
Loss of the 1.1227 gap low reopens the 1.1214 day low; a break there exposes 1.1200
Thu ECB's Panetta 12:15 UTC and US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could break the range
21:31 UTC
Sideways, two-way intraday chop · RSI 46 · price 1.12297
1.1214–1.1240 session range, mid-range into rollover.
London and NY traded through both sides of the 1.1217–1.1231 Asian range. Buyers stepped in three times at the 1.1214–1.1215 session low, and sellers rejected the 1.1240 day high at 18:15 UTC. Price is drifting at 1.1230 after a thin rollover gap to the 1.1227 rollover low, just under EMA20 and above the 38.2% of the rebound fib. French spread stress keeps EUR capped and RSI(14) sits neutral near 46.
Support: 1.12271, 1.1214, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12355, 1.12404, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.1227 rollover low exposes the 1.1214 session low; a break there opens the 1.1200 psych level
A close above the 1.1236 rebound high puts the 1.1240 day high back in play; the 1.1250 range cap has rejected price five times this month
Thursday's US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ECB Panetta (12:15 UTC) could shift this read; an OAT-Bund spread above 160bp is the EUR tail risk
21:17 UTC
Sideways, two-way intraday range · RSI 48 · price 1.12299
Range 1.1214–1.1240, flat lows, marginally higher highs.
London and NY swung two-way inside 1.1214–1.1240. Buyers defended the day low three times, at 09:00, 15:45 and 19:00 UTC, while the 1.1240 session high was rejected with a 12-pip drop at 18:45 UTC. The new trading day opened just after 21:00 UTC with a 5-pip gap to the 1.1227 gap low, and price now sits mid-range near 1.1230, on the EMA50 and just under the EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 48. Tuesday's US housing misses keep USD soft, but French OAT spread stress caps the euro, so the pair stays boxed.
Support: 1.1227, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1240, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.1227 gap low puts the 1.1215 day low back in play
M15 close below the 1.1215 day low breaks the three-touch floor and the range read
Reclaim of the 1.1235 swing high reopens the 1.1240 session high, with the 1.1250 range cap that has held all month above
Panetta (Thu 12:15 UTC) and US Jobless Claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
1.1214–1.1240 day range, lows defended three times.
London and NY swung inside a 1.1214–1.1240 range. The 1.1214 day low held three times (London, mid-NY, late NY), and the late-NY push met rejection at the 1.1240 day high. Price has retraced roughly two-thirds of the final drop and sits mid-range near 1.1232 in thin post-NY trade, with French spread stress capping EUR and a soft dollar cushioning the downside.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1240 day high breaks the range and brings the 1.1252 range cap into view
Failure to hold the 1.1214 day low on a fourth test exposes the 1.1200 psych level
Holding above the drop fib 61.8% (~1.1231) keeps the late-NY drop retracement intact
ECB's Panetta 12:15 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
1.1214–1.1240 range, late-NY drop mostly retraced.
EURUSD has swung inside a 1.1214–1.1240 range all day. Lows near the range floor held three times: in London at 09:15 UTC, in NY at 16:15 UTC and again at 19:00 UTC. The late-NY drop from the 1.1240 session high has retraced about 80% back to 1.1233. The soft USD after Tuesday's housing misses is offsetting French spread stress on the euro. RSI(14) is neutral near 50 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 5 pips after the NY close.
Support: 1.12288, 1.12137
Resistance: 1.12404, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.1229 rebound low puts the 1.1214 range floor back in play
M15 close below the 1.1214 range floor breaks the day's range structure
Close above the 1.1240 session high exposes the 1.1250 range cap, which has capped price five times this month
Thu Panetta (12:15 UTC) and US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Range 1.1214–1.1240, flat triple low with marginally higher highs.
London and NY held a 1.1214–1.1240 range. The 1.1214 triple low was defended a third time after the late-NY drop, and price has recovered most of that leg to 1.1234, above the asian high and just under the 1.1240 session high. A soft USD offsets French spread stress on EUR, keeping the pair boxed with RSI(14) mid-range near 54.
Support: 1.1229, 1.1214, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1240 session high opens the 1.1250 range cap, rejected five times this month
Slip back below the 1.1229 asian high returns focus to the triple low; a break of 1.1214 exposes the 1.1200 round number
Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday could shift this read
OAT-Bund spread clearing 160bp would add EUR pressure on the triple low
20:17 UTC
Sideways, two-way chop · RSI 55 · price 1.12334
1.1214–1.1240 intraday range; late-NY rebound off the triple low.
London and NY both traded through the Asian range (1.1217–1.1231) without follow-through. The day high at 1.1240 was rejected at 18:00 UTC, and the triple low at 1.1214–1.1215 held again at 19:00. The late-NY rebound has cleared the 61.8% of the 18:00–19:00 drop and sits just above the ema20 at 1.1230, with RSI(14) neutral at 55 as French spread stress keeps a lid on the euro.
Support: 1.1230, 1.1214, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1240 day high exposes the 1.1250 range cap, an area capped repeatedly this month
Loss of the ema20 at 1.1230 returns price to mid-range; a break of the 1.1214 triple low opens the 1.1200 round number
OAT-Bund spread pushing through 160bp, or Thu US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
1.1214–1.1240 day range, floor defended three times.
Late NY, a 19:00 UTC flush to 1.1215 was reversed back above the Asian high at 1.1231. That was the third time demand stepped in near the 1.1214 day low (range floor) today. Price now sits between that floor and the 1.1237 NY high / 1.1240 day high, RSI(14) neutral near 52, with French spread stress the backdrop to repeated upside caps.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1240 day high breaks the range top; rejection at the 1.1237 NY high keeps the range intact
Slip back below the 1.1231 Asian high and the 0.618 of the late NY swing (~1.1231) puts the 1.1214 day low back in play
Close below the 1.1214 range floor ends the triple-defended base read
Thu Panetta 12:15 UTC and US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled risk; OAT-Bund spread headlines could hit EUR in Asia session
Range 1.1214–1.1240, three holds near the range floor.
London undercut the Asian range low to a 1.1214 day low, and NY pushed to a 1.1240 day high before a sharp rejection back to 1.1215 after London close. Price has since recovered to the 1.1230 area, mid-range and hugging EMA20, while the French spread stress in the digest keeps the euro heavy below the 1.1235 swing high.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1240 day high breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 1.1214 day low exposes the 1.1200 round number cited in the digest
Loss of the 1.1220 round number would put a fourth test of the range floor in play
OAT-Bund spread clearing 160bp could break the range regardless of session
Thu ECB Panetta 12:15 UTC and US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Sideways, intraday range · RSI 39 · price 1.12209
1.1214–1.1240 range; late-NY false break of the high.
The late-NY push to a 1.1240 session high failed quickly. A 12-pip bar at 18:45 UTC gave back most of the NY rally, and price is now near 1.1221, below both EMAs. The 1.1214 day low has held three tests since London, while price sits back under the 1.1231 Asian high as French spread stress keeps EUR heavy.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1214 day low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1231 Asian high neutralises the false-break read, with the 1.1240 session high above
Meta earnings after the US close could jolt USD via risk sentiment in thin post-NY trade
Thu 12:15 UTC Panetta and 12:30 UTC US jobless claims, plus OAT-Bund spread headlines, could shift this read
Range 1.1214–1.1240; double low base, false break above NY high.
London and NY held a 1.1214–1.1240 range, with a double low at 1.1214 and a push to the 1.1240 session high. That push cleared the 1.1238 ny high by only 3 pips and failed as a false break. A 12-pip late-NY bar then erased the post-Lagarde rally to 1.1223, about a 68% retrace, leaving price just above the asian low with RSI(14) near 39 as French OAT stress keeps the euro heavy.
Support: 1.12174, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.12308, 1.12375, 1.12404
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1214 double low breaks the session range and exposes the 1.1200 zone
Recovery above the 1.1231 asian high would neutralise the late-NY rejection
Meta earnings after the US close could shift USD via risk sentiment
OAT-Bund spread headlines through the 160bp area could extend euro weakness in Asia
Double bottom at 1.1214, failed hold above 1.1238 prior high.
London's dip to 1.1214 was matched by an NY low at the same level. The bounce off those twin lows, in line with a softer USD after the housing misses, ran to a 1.1240 session high. Price briefly closed above the 1.1238 prior high, then slipped back to 1.1234 in late NY, holding above the 38.2% fib at 1.1230 with RSI(14) at 58.
Support: 1.1230, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.12375, 1.12404, 1.1250
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1240 session high negates the false break and exposes the 1.1250 cap zone, where EUR has stalled repeatedly this month
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 1.1230 opens a deeper retrace toward the twin lows at 1.1214
Thu: ECB's Panetta 12:15 UTC and US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could shift this read; French OAT spread headlines remain a tail risk
London and NY lows matched near 1.1214; late-NY rally printed day high at 1.1240 and stalled.
London and NY both held a double bottom at the 1.1214 day low, and the late-NY rebound reached a day high at 1.1240 before stalling, with RSI(14) cooling to about 60. French spread stress keeps the 1.1250 range cap in focus, and the 1.1230 pivot low lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the NY leg.
Support: 1.1230, 1.12142
Resistance: 1.12404, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1230 pivot low returns price to the middle of the range
Close above the 1.1240 day high exposes the 1.1250 range cap, which capped price five times this month
Loss of the 1.1214 day low breaks the double bottom
Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims and ECB's Panetta at 12:15 UTC could shift this read
An OAT-Bund spread move above 160bp would weigh on EUR
Higher lows off 1.1214 double bottom, stalling at session high.
Lows at 1.1214 in London and again in NY formed a double bottom (double btm). The 26-pip rally that followed began on the 16:30 UTC Lagarde bar, cleared the 1.1231 Asian high and printed a 1.1240 session high, where a wick shows early rejection late in the NY session. RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched, and the 1.1250 monthly cap from the digest sits just above, with the dollar soft but near its lows.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1227, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1240 session high opens the 1.1250 monthly cap that has held five times this month
Slip back under the 1.1231 Asian high puts the 50% fib of the 1.1214–1.1240 rebound at 1.1227 in play
Loss of the 1.1214 double btm negates the reversal read
Thin post-NY and Asia session liquidity; Panetta 12:15 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC Thursday could shift this read
The 09:00 and 15:45 UTC lows formed a double bottom near 1.1214. The rally that followed started around Lagarde's 16:30 UTC remarks, whose tone is unread in the feed. After London close it cleared the NY prior high at 1.1238 and printed a 24h high at 1.1240. RSI(14) sits near 62, and the 1.1252 monthly cap, which has held five times this month, is 12 pips above.
Support: 1.12375, 1.1230, 1.12142
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1252
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1238 prior high would turn the 24h high break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1230 pullback low (38.2% of the rally fib) breaks the rally trendline
The 1.1252 monthly cap is the next area to watch for rejection or break
Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday could shift this read
Double bottom at 1.1214 inside a 1.1214–1.1238 day range.
Buyers defended the 1.1214 double low, first in London and again late in NY. The bounce cleared the 1.1230 pivot through the 16:30 UTC Lagarde window and is now pressing the 1.1238 session high set at the NY open. Soft USD tone is supporting the rebound, while French OAT stress keeps a lid on EUR.
Support: 1.1230, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.12378, 1.1252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1238 session high completes the double bottom and brings the 1.1252 month cap into view
Slip back below the 1.1230 pivot returns price to the day's range
Break of the 1.1214 double low turns the structure to a lower-low
Late Lagarde headlines or OAT-Bund spread moves could shift this read during Asia
17:46 UTC
Range-bound, recovering from day lows · RSI 61 · price 1.12343
1.1214–1.1238 day range; double low at base, lower highs capping top.
London broke below the Asian low to a 1.1214 double low, retested at 15:45 UTC, then rallied ~21 pips into Lagarde's 16:30 UTC remarks to a 1.1235 lagarde high. Price holds 1.1234 late in NY hours, above the 1.1230 pullback low, with lower highs from the 1.1238 day high capping the top of the range.
Support: 1.1230, 1.12248, 1.12137
Resistance: 1.12354, 1.12375
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1238 day high breaks the lower-highs line and the range top
Loss of the 1.1230 pullback low exposes the 1.1225 fib 50% of the Lagarde leg
Break of the 1.1214 double low reopens the downside
Lagarde headlines not yet priced in the news flow could jolt the thin post-London tape
The 16:30 UTC Lagarde bar ran price off the 1.1214 double btm. Late NY is now testing the 1.1238 session high and the prior high at 1.1239, which together form the range top, after retracing about 85% of the NY selloff fib. RSI(14) at 58 and ATR near 5 pips show a compact, unstretched move as soft USD offsets French-spread pressure on EUR.
Support: 1.1230, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.12375, 1.12389, 1.1252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 prior high breaks the range top and opens the 1.1252 range cap
Slip back below the 1.1230 lagarde low returns price to the middle of the 1.1214–1.1238 range
Lagarde headlines not yet digested; Panetta 12:15 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC Thursday are the next scheduled risk
17:16 UTC
Range-bound, late-NY pop toward top · RSI 57 · price 1.12327
1.1214–1.1238 day range, double low held, price back near range top.
Price has held a 1.1214–1.1238 range all day. A double low at 1.1214, the London low and the NY low, rejected both tests. The Lagarde leg from 16:30 UTC lifted price 21 pips to a 1.1235 spike high, just under the NY-open session high at 1.1238. Price is holding there after the London close, with the soft-USD backdrop from the digest still in place.
Support: 1.12266, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.12353, 1.12375
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1238 session high breaks the day range top
Loss of the 1.1227 spike base, the 38.2% of the Lagarde leg, puts the 1.1214 double low back in play
Headlines digesting Lagarde's remarks and Meta earnings tonight could shift USD and this read
17:01 UTC
Range, late-session rebound toward the top · RSI 60 · price 1.12325
Double bottom at 1.1214 inside a 1.1214–1.1238 day range, testing the London high.
London and NY both held the 1.1214 day low, forming a double bottom. The rebound around Lagarde's 16:30 UTC remarks reclaimed the asian high at 1.1231 and tagged the london high at 1.1235, about 78.6% back through the NY sell-off. Price is holding above the ema20 at 1.1226 late in the NY session, with RSI(14) at 60 and ATR(14) near 6 pips.
Support: 1.12308, 1.12261, 1.12137
Resistance: 1.12353, 1.12375, 1.12389
What it said to watch
A close above the ny high at 1.1238 and the prior high at 1.1239 completes the double bottom and breaks the day range
Rejection at the london high at 1.1235 keeps the 1.1214–1.1238 range intact
A slip back under the asian high at 1.1231 and the ema20 at 1.1226 would mark the rebound as a failed retest
Failure to hold the 1.1214 day low invalidates the double bottom
Lagarde's remarks are not yet in the news flow; follow-through headlines on December ECB pricing could materially shift this read
Session range 1.1214–1.1238, matching lows at the base.
London tagged 1.1214 at 09:00 UTC and rallied to a 1.1238 NY high, then the NY drop gave it all back to a matching 1.1214 double low at 15:45 UTC. That low drew a 13-pip bounce into Lagarde's 16:30 UTC remarks. Price sits mid-range near 1.1227, a touch above EMA20/50 and around the 50–61.8% retrace of the NY drop, just under the Asian high at 1.1231; RSI(14) is neutral at 50.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1238, 1.1255
What it said to watch
Lagarde is speaking now (16:30 UTC). With ATR at ~5.6 pips, her remarks could break the 1.1214–1.1238 range either way
An M15 close above the 1.1238 NY high opens the 1.1250–1.1260 monthly cap, which has been capped five times this month
A close below the 1.1214 double low breaks the session range and exposes the 1.1200 round number
Failure to clear the 1.1231 Asian high keeps price rotating mid-range
1.1214–1.1238 day range; NY rally rejected, London low retested.
Early NY lifted price to a 1.1238 session high, which was rejected, and the move unwound to retest the 1.1214 London low at 15:45 UTC, where price held again. Pressure on EUR from the French OAT move above 5% kept the bounce shallow after London close, with price back below the 1.1231 Asian high and both EMAs.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1238
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaking at 16:30 UTC, now in progress, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1214 london low breaks the day range and exposes the 1.1200 round number
Recovery through the 1.1231 asian high reopens the 1.1238 session high
A second hold at 1.1214 leaves the double test of the London low intact
16:16 UTC
Intraday down-leg inside a 24h range · RSI 42 · price 1.12188
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY-open rejection, pressing the 1.1214 day low.
The NY-open push to the 1.1238 NY high was rejected just short of the prior-day top. The full London rally has since unwound back toward the 1.1214 day low, with each bounce capped at a lower high near 1.1226. EUR is soft on crosses as French OAT stress offsets the softer USD. RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR is about 5.5 pips, with Lagarde at 16:30 UTC the immediate catalyst.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1238
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaks at 16:30 UTC (15 minutes after this bar) and could materially shift this read. A cautious tone has the 1.1200 round number in focus.
An M15 close below the 1.1214 day low confirms a lower-low and breaks the 24h range floor.
An M15 close above the 1.1226 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline, putting the 1.1238 NY high back in play.
16:01 UTC
Intraday range, downside pressure since NY open · RSI 39 · price 1.12185
Lower highs off 1.1238 session high, price back on Asian low.
London's dip below the Asian low to a 1.1214 session low failed and reversed, but the NY-open push to a 1.1238 session high was rejected. Price is back on the 1.1217 Asian low, near the 78.6% of the London-NY leg, as French OAT stress weighs on EUR against a soft USD. RSI(14) is near 39 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1214, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1231, 1.1238
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read and test either end of the 1.1214–1.1238 range
M15 close below the 1.1214 session low opens the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1226 swing high and the NY lower highs trendline puts the 1.1231 Asian high back in focus
Hold of the 1.1217 Asian low at the 78.6% of the London-NY leg keeps the range read intact
Higher lows off London low; lower highs since 1.1238 rejection.
London swept the Asian range low to the 1.1214 london low, then the NY open lifted price to the 1.1238 session high. It was rejected there, just under yesterday's NY high, with French OAT stress weighing on EUR against a soft USD. The pullback held a double ny low at 1.1219 near the 78.6% retracement of the london-ny leg and on the rising lows line. Price sits at 1.1225, just under EMA20/50, RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 1.12193, 1.12137
Resistance: 1.12308, 1.12375
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC, about an hour out, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1219 ny low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.1214 london low
Recovery above the 1.1230 asia high reopens the 1.1238 session high
15:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY open · RSI 39 · price 1.12202
NY-open high rejected; ~72% retrace of the London low-to-NY-high leg.
London broke below the Asian range to the 1.1214 london low, then reversed through the asian high to a 1.1237 ny open high. That high was rejected and price has slid on a lower-high sequence through the 61.8% fib to the 1.1219 ny low, below EMA20/50, mid-NY session, as French bond stress keeps the euro soft.
Support: 1.12193, 1.12137
Resistance: 1.12226, 1.12308, 1.12371
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read; a cautious tone has the 1.1214 london low in play
A break of the 1.1219 ny low exposes the london low
An M15 close back above the 61.8% fib at 1.1223 and the descending lower-high line eases the pullback read
Reclaiming the 1.1231 asian high reopens the 1.1237 ny open high
15:16 UTC
Range, NY rally rejected · price 1.12231
Failed NY high, price back inside Asian range.
The first-hour-of-NY spike to the 1.1238 NY high cleared the London high but stalled short of yesterday's 1.1240 peak and reversed, unwinding the London rally as French spread stress kept EUR heavy. Price now sits below the 1.1231 Asian high at the 61.8% fib of the London low-to-NY high move, with RSI(14) at 44 and price under both EMAs; the 1.1220 NY low and 1.1214 London low sit below.
Support: 1.12205, 1.12137
Resistance: 1.12308, 1.12375
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1220 NY low exposes the 1.1214 London low
Recovery above the 1.1231 Asian high would neutralise the NY rejection, with the 1.1238 NY high capping above
Lower highs off the 1.1238 ny high, inside the 1.1214–1.1238 day range.
Late in the London-NY overlap, the NY push to the 1.12375 ny high stalled just short of yesterday's 1.1239 high and reversed. That gave back most of the London rally off the 1.1214 day low, and price now holds the 1.1224 ny base between the 50% and 61.8% retrace, below the 1.1231 asian high. EUR stays heavy on French OAT spread stress, with a soft USD keeping the pair in range.
Support: 1.12238, 1.12137
Resistance: 1.12309, 1.12375
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1224 ny base exposes the 1.1214 day low
M15 close back above the 1.1231 asian high neutralises the lower-high sequence; the 1.1238 ny high caps above
Lagarde speech at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Intraday range, momentum fading after NY rejection · RSI 47 · price 1.12262
London dipped under the Asian low and recovered; NY push to 1.1237 rejected, price back inside Asian range.
Early NY pushed to a 1.1237 ny high and was rejected. Price is back below the 1.1231 asian high, sitting near the 50% retracement of the London leg up from the 1.1214 session low. EUR stays heavy on French spread stress, and the 1.1250 prior high was not tested.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1217, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1237, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read. A growth-cautious tone would put the 1.1214 session low back in focus.
An M15 close back above the 1.1231 asian high reopens the 1.1237 ny high and the 1.1250 prior high.
Failure to hold the 1.1224 ny low confirms the rejection and exposes the 1.1217 asian low.
HL chain off the London low; NY session high rejected.
London swept below the 1.1217 Asian range low to the 1.1214 London low, then built a higher-low chain into a 1.1238 NY high, where the 13:45 bar was rejected back to 1.1228. Price is now testing the rising trendline and sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 52. The pair stays inside the wider 1.1200–1.1260 range as French-spread pressure on EUR is offset by a soft USD.
Support: 1.1226, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1226 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the HL chain
Loss of the 1.1214 London low reopens the 1.1200 area
Close above the 1.1238 NY high exposes the 1.1260 prior high, the range cap
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London · RSI 59 · price 1.12351
HH/HL chain off the 1.1214 London low, testing the prior high near 1.1239.
London swept below the 1.1217–1.1231 Asian range to a 1.1214 London low, then reversed through the Asian high at 10:45 UTC. The NY open extended the higher-low chain to a 1.1238 session high, right at Tuesday's overnight prior high near 1.1239, with RSI(14) a neutral 59 and USD still soft.
Support: 1.1226, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1239 prior high opens the path to the 1.1260 Tuesday high, the top of the 1.1252–1.1260 cap
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1226 swing low ends the higher-low chain and puts the 1.1214 London low back in play
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low off London low; 1.1225–1.1235 range since late London.
London dipped through the 1.1217 Asian low to the 1.1214 London low, then reversed and broke the Asian high before stalling at the 1.1235 session high. The pullback held the 1.1225 pullback low near the 50% fib of the London swing. Price is now pinned around the old 1.1231 Asian high in the first hours of NY, with a soft USD cushioning EUR despite French spread pressure.
Support: 1.1225, 1.12174, 1.12137
Resistance: 1.12352, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1235 session high reopens the 1.1252–1.1260 prior high band
Close below the 1.1225 pullback low puts the 1.1217 asian low and 1.1214 london low back in play
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the London low, tight 1.1225–1.1235 band into NY open.
London dipped under the 1.1217 Asian low to a 1.1214 London low, then reversed back through the Asian high. Rising lows since then, with the 1.1225 pullback low holding near the 50% of the London leg, while the 1.1235 session high caps ahead of Lagarde and French spread stress keeps EUR heavy.
Support: 1.1225, 1.12174, 1.12137
Resistance: 1.12352, 1.1250, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1235 session high opens the 1.1250 range cap, topped five times this month
Clean break of the 1.1250 range cap exposes Tuesday's 1.1260 prior high
Loss of the 1.1225 pullback low breaks the rising lows line and puts the 1.1217 Asian low back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1214 London low confirms the reversal as a failed move
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC and Meta earnings tonight could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 55 · price 1.12292
Asian range swept low, then broken high; NY retesting the break.
London swept below the 1.1217 Asian low to a 1.1214 London low and reversed. A slightly softer USD carried the pair through the 1.1231 Asian high to a 1.1235 session high. The NY open dip held 1.1225, the 50% retracement of the London leg, and price is back near 1.1229 on the higher-low trendline. RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1217, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1250, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1225 ny low and the higher-low trendline turns the Asian-high break into a false break
Clearance of the 1.1235 session high opens the 1.1250 range cap, with the 1.1260 prior high above it
Loss of the 1.1217 asian low and 1.1214 london low puts the lower Asian boundary back in play
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Meta earnings tonight are a USD sentiment risk
12:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at session high · RSI 57 · price 1.12295
Higher lows off London low, Asian range high under retest.
Demand held a London low near 1.1214 twice, and the move lifted EUR/USD through the 1.1231 Asian range high to a 1.1235 session high. Price is now back at that breakout level into the London-NY transition, with higher lows at 1.1228. Yesterday's 1.1260 prior high, the month's repeated cap, sits overhead while French fiscal stress weighs on EUR.
Support: 1.1228, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1228 pullback low puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the double bottom read
Clearing the 1.1235 session high exposes the 1.1260 prior high cap
Lagarde speech 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the 1.1214 london low confirms a fresh intraday lower-low
12:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 62 · price 1.12336
Asian range swept low, then broken high; higher lows under session high.
London swept the Asian low near 1.1217 down to the 1.1214 London low, then reversed. The London leg broke the Asian high at 1.1231 and printed a higher low at 1.1228, with RSI(14) near 62. Into the NY open, price is pressing the 1.1235 session high just under the 1.1239 overnight high, with a soft USD offsetting EUR drag from French spread stress.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1228, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1239, 1.1260
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1239 overnight high opens the path to the 1.1260 prior high, the cap that has held repeatedly this month.
A loss of the 1.1228 higher low and a return below the 1.1231 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break.
A break of the 1.1214 London low would confirm a lower low on this timeframe.
Lagarde's speech at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a cautious tone puts the London leg retracement in focus.
12:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at session high · RSI 58 · price 1.12294
London sweep below the Asian low, reclaim and break of the Asian range high; higher lows since 1.1214.
London dipped under the 1.1217 Asian low to a 1.1214 London low, then reversed through the Asian range top. That move is now capped twice at the 1.1234 session high into late London, with RSI(14) near 58. Price is still well below yesterday's spike-and-fade from 1.1260, with French OAT stress weighing on EUR against a soft USD.
Support: 1.12277, 1.12174, 1.12137
Resistance: 1.12335, 1.12389
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 session high extends the Asian range break toward the 1.1239 overnight high
Failure to hold the 1.1228 higher low puts the 1.1217 Asian low back in play
A break of the 1.1214 London low invalidates the sweep-and-reclaim read
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC (~4h out) could materially shift this read
12:01 UTC
Intraday recovery from London low · RSI 62 · price 1.12318
Asian low swept, then break above Asian high; higher lows since 10:15 UTC.
London swept below the Asian low of 1.1217 to a 1.12137 session low, then reversed through the Asian high at 1.12308. Two rejections at the 1.12335 session high sit below the 1.1239 overnight high, with the 1.12278 pullback low holding as a higher low. EUR stays capped by French spread stress after Tuesday's US-Iran oil-driven push to 1.1260 faded.
Support: 1.12308, 1.12278, 1.12137
Resistance: 1.12335, 1.12389, 1.1260
What it said to watch
Hold above the asian high at 1.12308 keeps the breakout intact; a close back below the 1.12278 pullback low turns it into a false break
M15 close above the 1.12335 session high exposes the 1.1239 overnight high, then the 1.1260 tuesday high
Loss of rising support toward 1.1216 reopens the 1.12137 session low
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC is high-risk for this range
11:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 60 · price 1.12315
Asian low swept, Asian high broken, retest holding.
London swept below the Asian low to a 1.1214 London low, then reversed through the Asian high at 1.1231 to a 1.12335 session high. The 1.1228 pullback low has held as a retest, while 1.1239 marks the overnight top below Tuesday's 1.1260 spike high. RSI(14) sits near 60 and the tape remains in a narrow range as French spread stress keeps EUR soft.
Support: 1.12278, 1.12137, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12335, 1.12389, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1228 pullback low undoes the Asian-high breakout
Clearing the 1.12335 session high and 1.1239 overnight top exposes the Tuesday high at 1.1260
Loss of the 1.1214 London low reopens the 1.1200 round number
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London open swept the 1.1217 Asian low to a 1.1214 session low, then bounced through the Asian high to 1.1234 before a rejection back to 1.1228. Price is holding above the 38.2% of the London swing fib ahead of the NY open. EUR is weighed by French spread stress, while a soft USD keeps the pair off yesterday's 1.1260 prior high.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1214, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 session high reopens the 1.1260 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.1214 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Recovering intraday, testing range top · RSI 61 · price 1.12317
London false break below Asian low, reversal through Asian high.
London pushed below the Asian low three times, holding a 1.1214 session low each time, then reversed through the Asian high at 1.1231 late in the session. Price is now at the 38.2% fib of the drop from Tuesday's 1.1260 spike high, set in NY on USD weakness, with the 50% fib at 1.1238 overlapping last night's consolidation cap.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1231 asian high returns price to the Asian range
Acceptance above the 50% fib at 1.1238 opens the 1.1260 spike high
Loss of the 1.1214 london low cancels the false-break read and confirms a lower-low
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with EUR already soft on French spread stress
London range 1.1214–1.1227, lower highs since Tuesday NY.
EUR has bled from Tuesday's NY prior high at 1.1260, a USD-weakness spike, as French spread stress weighed on the euro. London has held a 1.1214–1.1227 range: three dips toward the session low were bought, and price is now pressing the session high near EMA20/50 with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1227, 1.1231, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1227 session high and the 1.1231 Asian high (≈38.2% fib of the 1.1260–1.1214 drop) breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure at 1.1227 keeps the range intact; a break of the 1.1214 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number
Lagarde speech at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Sideways after slide from 1.1260, lower highs intact · RSI 54 · price 1.12243
London range 1.1214–1.1227 below Asian high, failed breaks of the Asian low.
EUR/USD has bled lower from the 1.1260 prior high as French spread stress weighs on EUR. In mid-London, price twice dipped below the 1.1218 Asian low to a 1.1214 session low and both times closed back inside. The 10:15 UTC bar rejected that floor and is now pressing the 1.1227 session high, with the 1.1231 Asian high and the 38.2% retrace just above.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1227, 1.1231, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 Asian high breaks the falling-highs line and opens the 38.2% retrace zone toward the 1.1260 prior high
Acceptance below the 1.1214 session low turns the false break into a range break lower
Lagarde speaks at 16:30 UTC; a non-committal line on December could materially shift this read
Asian low broken in London; lower-high/lower-low chain.
Mid-London, EURUSD has broken below the 1.1217 Asian range low and printed a 1.1214 session low. Each bounce has stalled lower along a descending trendline from 1.1230, with the latest lower high at 1.1225. The drift off yesterday's 1.1260 range cap fits the heavier EUR tone on French spread widening, and RSI(14) near 41 is not stretched.
Support: 1.12137, 1.1206, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.12246, 1.12308, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1225 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 1.1231 Asian high would neutralise the London range break
Failure to hold the 1.1214 session low exposes the 1.1206 swing low, then the 1.1185 range floor
Lagarde speech at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 1.1260 range cap was respected yesterday
Lower highs inside a tight London range after a false break of the Asian low.
London dipped through the asian low at 1.1217 to 1.1214 and reclaimed it. Highs keep stepping lower from 1.1231 toward 1.1225, still well off Tuesday's prior high near 1.1260 as French spread risk weighs on EUR. RSI(14) neutral near 46, price just under both EMAs.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1217, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1231, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 1.1214 turns the false break into a break and exposes the range low at 1.1185
Close above the lower highs line and the london high at 1.1226 reopens the asian high at 1.1231
Lagarde speech at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the prior high at 1.1260 has capped the pair repeatedly
Lower highs since 1.1260, asian low swept and reclaimed.
London twice broke below the asian low at 1.1217, printing a london low at 1.1214, but reclaimed it each time. This is a false break so far. Price sits near 1.1222 under a chain of lower highs from the 1.1231 asian high and the 1.1226 london high. Tuesday's spike to the 1.1260 prior high fully faded as French spread risk weighed on EUR, leaving a tight 1.1214–1.1226 London range.
Support: 1.12174, 1.12137, 1.12059
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12308, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the london low at 1.1214 turns the false break into a lower-low and exposes the prior low at 1.1206
Close above the london high at 1.1226 and the lower highs trendline shifts focus to the asian high at 1.1231
Lagarde speaks at 16:30 UTC (high impact) and could materially shift this read; the 1.1260 prior high has capped the upside all month
Lower-high/lower-low chain; London swept Asian low and reclaimed it.
Lower highs have built since Tuesday's 1.1260 spike faded on renewed French spread stress, with a falling trendline capping the bounces. Mid-London, price swept the 1.1217 Asian low to a 1.1214 London low and reclaimed 1.1220. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR(14) is about 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.12174, 1.12137, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12308, 1.12372
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1226 London high and trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 1.1231 swing high (near the 38.2% fib) and 1.1237 Asian high sit above
Failure to hold the 1.1214 London low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1200 round number
Buba report at 10:00 UTC and Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 43 · price 1.12192
Lower highs and lower lows; London wicks below the Asian low but closes back inside.
Lower highs since the 1.1231 Asian high, with London twice wicking below the 1.1217 Asian low to a 1.1214 session low but closing back inside each time. Most of Tuesday's oil-driven spike to the 1.1260 high has been given back as French spread stress weighs on EUR; the London high at 1.1226 caps the bounce, RSI(14) 43, ATR(14) ~4.4 pips.
Support: 1.12174, 1.12137, 1.12059
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12309, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1214 session low turns the Asian-low false break into a range break, exposing Tuesday's low at 1.1206
Close above the lower-highs line and the 1.1226 London high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the Asian high at 1.1231 next
Buba Monthly Report at 10:00 UTC and Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; London capped below 1.1226.
Tuesday's oil-driven spike to the 1.1260 tuesday high has unwound into a chain of lower highs along a falling lower-high line, with French spread stress weighing on EUR. The 1.1224–1.1231 Asian range gave way just before London open, and the session low at 1.1216 printed at 08:15 UTC. Every London rebound has stalled at the 1.1226 london high, and price sits below both EMAs with RSI near 40.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1206, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1231, 1.1260
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1216 session low exposes the 1.1206 tuesday low, then 1.1185 prior supp
Break above the 1.1226 london high and the lower-high line, back into the Asian range toward the 1.1231 asian high, neutralises the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 38.2% of the 1.1260 drop fib (~1.1233) shifts the read to corrective
Buba report 10:00 UTC and Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs under a descending trendline; London swept the Asian low and recovered into mid-range.
Since the 1.1260 tuesday high spike on US-Iran oil and yield headlines, EUR/USD has carved lower highs under a descending trendline near 1.1225, with French spread worries capping EUR. Early London swept the Asian low to a 1.1216 london low and recovered, leaving price inside the Asian range, capped by the 1.1226 london high and 1.1231 asian high.
Support: 1.12157, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12308, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 1.1231 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1216 london low exposes the 1.1204 tuesday low
Buba report at 10:00 UTC and Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
OAT-Bund spread headlines remain the main EUR risk during London and NY hours
Lower highs from the 1.1260 spike; London swept the Asian low and recovered.
EUR has drifted lower since yesterday's brief NY spike to 1.1260 faded, with French spread stress weighing and a chain of lower highs capping each bounce. The London open swept the Asian range low near 1.1217 to a London low of 1.1216 and recovered to 1.1220, while the London high at 1.1226 holds below the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 1.12157, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12309, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1226 London high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the grind-lower read and puts the 1.1231 Asian high in play
Acceptance below the 1.1216 London low turns the sweep into a lower-low and exposes the 1.1204 prior low
Buba Monthly Report at 10:00 UTC and Lagarde at 16:30 UTC (HIGH) could materially shift this read; hawkish inflation talk is the main path back to the 1.1250 cap
08:31 UTC
Drifting lower, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 44 · price 1.12205
Lower-high sequence pressing onto Asian low.
Yesterday's NY spike to 1.1260 on lower oil and yields was fully rejected, and EUR has since bled lower on French spread stress. The Asian high at 1.1231 and the early-London high at 1.1226 form a lower-high trendline, with price now pressing toward the Asian low at 1.1217 and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.12174, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12309
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1217 asian low exposes the 1.1204 prior low from the ZEW miss
M15 close above the 1.1226 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 1.1231 asian high
Buba Monthly Report at 10:00 UTC and Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Drifting lower, flat into London · RSI 50 · price 1.12249
Lower highs since 1.1260; London trading inside the Asian range.
Yesterday's NY spike to the 1.1260 prior high was rejected as oil and yields eased, and the Asia session ground lower in a lower-highs sequence to an Asian low at 1.1217, with EUR soft on French spread stress. London open bounced off 1.1218 but stalled at a 1.1226 London high on the Asian lower-highs line, so price is compressed between the Asian low and the 1.1231 Asian high.
Support: 1.12174, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12264, 1.12308, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 Asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens 1.1260
Failure to hold the 1.1217 Asian low exposes the 1.1204 prior low
Buba Monthly Report 10:00 UTC and Lagarde 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since late NY inside a tight Asian range.
Early London is trading inside the 1.1217–1.1231 Asian range. The London open dip held the 1.1217 asian low and bounced, but stalled at the 1.1226 london high, extending a lower-highs line from late NY as French fiscal stress weighs on EUR. Price is pinned on EMA20, just below the 61.8% retrace of Tuesday's swing from the ZEW-miss low at 1.1204 to the 1.1260 spike.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1231, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1217 asian low opens the 1.1204 tue low
Close above the 1.1231 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and the range read
1.1250 range cap has rejected five pushes this month; a hold above it changes the read
Cipollone (08:00 UTC) and Buba (10:00 UTC) could shift tone ahead of Lagarde
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian lower highs, London open higher low at 1.1218 above the 1.1217 Asian low.
London open held above the 1.1217 Asian low and bounced to the 61.8% retrace of the Asian drop near 1.1226, mid-way in the 1.1217–1.1231 Asian range. The wider 24h frame is still Tuesday's ZEW-miss low at 1.1204 and the US-Iran headline spike that was rejected above the 1.1250 range cap. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and ATR(14) is about 3.7 pips.
Support: 1.12174, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12308, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 Asian high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1250 range cap back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1217 Asian low reopens the 1.1204 ZEW low
Rejection at the 61.8% of the Asian drop (~1.1226) keeps the Asian lower-high sequence intact
Cipollone at 08:00 UTC and the Buba report at 10:00 UTC are near-term risks; Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 02:00 UTC · RSI 31 · price 1.12184
Asian range broken lower, lower-high chain into the London open.
EUR/USD slipped through the asian low at 1.1224 into the London open and printed a session low at 1.1217, with French fiscal and protest worries weighing on EUR. Tuesday's NY-session spike high at 1.1260 is now fully faded beyond the 61.8% retrace. RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1204, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1231, 1.1260
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 1.1224 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
A close below the 1.1217 session low exposes the 1.1204 prior low and the 1.1200 round number
An M15 close above the 1.1231 asian high and the lower-high trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 1.1260 spike high is the upside reference
Lower highs have stacked since the housing-data spike to the 1.1260 prior high in Tuesday's NY session. The pre-London push broke below the Asian range to a 1.1217 session low, and price now sits under the fib 61.8 of the rally fib at 1.1226 with RSI(14) near 38. French fiscal and protest stress is keeping EUR heavy into London open.
Support: 1.12174, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12256, 1.12308, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1231 asian high negates the Asian range break
Failure to hold the 1.1217 session low exposes the 1.1204 prior low
A break of the lower highs trendline near 1.1227 weakens the grind-lower read
Nagel (07:15 UTC), Cipollone (08:00 UTC) and Lagarde (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 02:00 UTC · RSI 35 · price 1.12207
Asian range floor broken pre-London, new session low.
Asia faded in a lower-high sequence from the 1.1231 Asian high. The decline has slipped through the Asian floor at 1.1223 to a 1.1217 session low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR(14) about 3 pips. The drift fits renewed French fiscal and protest stress weighing on EUR. Tuesday's post-ZEW low at 1.1204 and the 1.1200 round number sit below, and the 1.1260 prior high remains the cap from the NY spike.
Support: 1.12174, 1.12041, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12232, 1.12308, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian floor at 1.1223 would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the session low at 1.1217 exposes the zew low at 1.1204 and the 1.1200 round number
M15 close above the asian high at 1.1231 ends the lower-high sequence
ECB's Nagel at 07:15 UTC and Cipollone at 08:00 UTC land into London open; Lagarde at 16:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
06:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 36 · price 1.1221
Lower-high sequence from 1.1260; Asian range low broken pre-London.
Tuesday's NY spike to 1.1260 (prior high) faded. Price has since printed lower highs through Asia as French fiscal worries resurfaced, slipping under the 1.1224 Asian low to a 1.1217 session low ahead of London open. Price sits below the 61.8% of the 1.1204–1.1260 rally, with RSI(14) near 36 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1204, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1231, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1217 session low exposes the 1.1204 prior low and the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1224 Asian low and 1.1231 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and negates the downtrend read
ECB's Nagel (07:15 UTC) and Cipollone (08:00 UTC) into London could shift the read; Lagarde 16:30 UTC is the high-impact risk
1.1260 prior high caps the window; only a return there would revive the rally structure
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, trading below the 61.8% retrace of Tuesday's rally.
Asia has ground lower from the 1.1239 late-NY high in a lower-high sequence, printing a session low at 1.1219 as French fiscal worries resurfaced. Price sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib of Tuesday's 1.1204 prior low to 1.1260 prior high rally, with ranges compressed (ATR under 3 pips) ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1219, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1260
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1231 asian high breaks the Asia lower-highs trendline and voids the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1219 session low exposes Tuesday's 1.1204 prior low and the 1.1200 base
ECB Nagel at 07:15 UTC and Cipollone at 08:00 UTC, into London open, could expand ranges
Lagarde at 16:30 UTC is the session's main risk; a return toward the 1.1260 prior high needs a hawkish read
06:01 UTC
Mild drift lower inside a tight Asian range · RSI 38 · price 1.12236
Lower highs through Asia, testing the Asian low.
Yesterday's ZEW miss knocked the pair to the 1.1206 swing low before oil-driven USD softness spiked it to a 1.1260 session high in NY. That high was rejected and price has since slipped beyond the 61.8% retrace of the rally. Late Asia is grinding lower on a lower-high trendline inside a 1.1222–1.1231 band, with ATR near 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1206
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1239, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1222 Asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.1206 swing low and the 1.1200 range floor
Close above the 1.1231 Asian high and the lower-high trendline neutralises the drift; the 1.1239 NY range top comes next
Nagel (07:15 UTC) and Cipollone (08:00 UTC) land in the first hour of London; Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could reopen a test of the 1.1260 session high
Lower highs from 1.1260 NY high, fresh Asian session low at 1.1222.
Late in the Asia session, price is printing a fresh low at 1.1222 inside a tight 1.1222–1.1231 Asian range. Highs have stepped lower since the 1.1260 NY spike, and price is sitting on the 61.8% fib of the ZEW-low-to-NY-high leg. RSI(14) is near 39 and ATR is under 3 pips, so conditions are compressed ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.12219, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12308, 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1222 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1204 zew low from Tuesday's ZEW miss
An M15 close above the 1.1231 asian high and the lower highs trendline breaks the drift; the 1.1239 swing high and 1.1260 prior high sit above
ECB's Nagel at 07:15 and Cipollone at 08:00 UTC fall early in London; Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside a tight Asian range, pressing the range floor.
NY's oil-driven spike through 1.1250 to the 1.1260 day high was rejected and fully retraced. The Asia session has since drifted lower in a 1.1223–1.1231 band, with price now sitting on the asian low and below the 61.8% fib of the London-NY leg. The ZEW miss set the 1.1204 day low during London, and that remains the base under this range.
Support: 1.12232, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12308, 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1223 asian low exposes the 1.1206–1.1204 London base and day low.
A break of the asia lower highs line and the 1.1231 asian high reopens the 1.1239 late ny high.
Nagel at 07:15 UTC and Cipollone at 08:00 UTC land into London open. Lagarde at 16:30 UTC is the larger swing factor for the 1.1250–1.1260 day high zone.
Lower highs inside a tight Asian range, pressing the range low.
Late Asia is drifting off the 1.1239 NY swing high in a 1.1223–1.1231 Asian range. Price is printing lower highs and sitting on the Asian low, near the 61.8% retrace of Tuesday's rally from the post-ZEW prior low at 1.1204 to 1.1260. That spike through the 1.1250 cap faded within the hour, and ATR is under 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.12234, 1.12204, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12308, 1.12389, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1223 asian low opens the 1.1220 swing low, then the 1.1204 prior low
Break of the falling lower-highs line and the 1.1231 asian high would neutralise the Asian drift; 1.1239 ny swing hi sits above
1.1250 cap held again on Tuesday's spike, and a fresh test would need a catalyst
ECB's Nagel 07:15 and Cipollone 08:00 UTC set tone into London; Lagarde 16:30 UTC is the main risk to this range
Tight Asian range 1.1224–1.1231 with lower highs since late NY.
Late Asia session, with EURUSD at 1.1226 pinned inside a 7-pip Asian range of 1.1224–1.1231. It sits on the 61.8% fib of yesterday's 1.1204 ZEW low to 1.1260 prior high rally after the oil/Iran-driven spike was rejected. Highs have stepped lower from the 1.1239 NY high, and RSI(14) at 43 and ATR near 3 pips show compressed, low-energy trade into the London open.
Support: 1.12238, 1.1220, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12308, 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 asian low puts the 1.1220 round number and then the 1.1204 zew low in view
Recovery above the 1.1231 asian high and the 1.1239 ny high (38.2% fib) negates the lower-high sequence
Nagel 07:15 and Cipollone 08:00 UTC ahead of Lagarde 16:30 UTC could break the Asian range at London open
Prior high at 1.1260 marks where yesterday's spike was rejected, the top of the session context
Tight Asian range 1.1224–1.1231 under a descending line of lower highs.
Tuesday's ZEW miss set the 1.1204 zew low. The NY spike to the 1.1260 tue high met rejection on French fiscal headlines, and price has since compressed under a descending line of lower highs from the 1.1239 late ny high. In Asia, price is pressing the 1.1231 asian high, close to the 61.8% retrace of the post-ZEW rally, with ATR near 3 pips and price only marginally above EMA50.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1239, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 asian high and descending line exposes the 1.1239 late ny high
Loss of the 1.1224 asian low breaks the 61.8% retrace and reopens the 1.1204 zew low
Nagel 07:15 and Cipollone 08:00 UTC can expand the Asian range ahead of London; Lagarde at 16:30 UTC is the larger risk
04:16 UTC
Sideways after a failed NY spike, drifting lower · RSI 46 · price 1.12274
Tight Asian range under a line of lower highs, sitting near the 61.8% retrace.
Tuesday's swing ran from the 1.1204 prior low, set on the ZEW miss, to the 1.1260 prior high, a NY spike on Iran/oil headlines that faded straight back as French spread stress weighed. Price has since retraced to the 61.8% retrace zone. Late in the Asia session, price is compressed in a 7-pip 1.1224–1.1231 Asian range beneath a line of lower highs, with RSI(14) at 46 and ATR near 3 pips. No setup in play ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.12238, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12309, 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 asian low breaks the 61.8% retrace and exposes the 1.1204 prior low
Close above the 1.1231 asian high and the lower highs line reopens the 1.1239 late ny high
Lane speaks now and Nagel at 07:15 UTC; Lagarde at 16:30 UTC is the main event risk for a retest of the 1.1260 prior high
04:01 UTC
Sideways, mild drift lower through Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.12273
Tight Asian range with lower highs, below late NY high.
Late Asia session: price is pinned in a 7-pip Asian range of 1.1224–1.1231, near the 61.8% retrace of the 1.1204 day low to 1.1260 spike high move. The NY spike on softer USD was rejected just above the 1.1250 cap. Asia has printed lower highs off the 1.1239 late NY high as the euro lags on French spread stress.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1239, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1224 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.1204 day low
Close above 1.1231 asian high and the Asia lower-highs trendline brings 1.1239 late NY high back into view
1.1260 spike high marks the rejection above the 1.1250 cap; it stays the upper boundary of the read
Lane at 04:15 UTC and the London open are the first tests of the Asian range; Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range with lower highs after the NY spike fully faded.
The NY spike to the 1.1260 Tue high on soft US housing data and lower oil met rejection and fully retraced. Late Asia is now boxed between the 1.1224 Asian low and the 1.1231 Asian high, at the 61.8% retrace of Tuesday's ZEW-driven leg off the 1.1204 Tue low. Lower highs since the 1.1239 NY range top cap the tape, RSI(14) is flat near 50 and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.12238, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12308, 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 Asian low breaks the range and exposes the 1.1204 Tue low
Close above the 1.1231 Asian high and the lower-high trendline reopens the 1.1239 NY range top
Lane at 04:15 UTC, Nagel at 07:15 and Cipollone at 08:00 into London open could break the Asian range; Lagarde at 16:30 UTC is the main event risk
03:31 UTC
Sideways-to-lower, compressing in Asia · RSI 47 · price 1.12263
Lower highs since late NY inside a tight Asian range.
NY's spike to the 1.1260 day high was rejected and fully faded. Late in the Asia session, price is compressing in a 1.1224–1.1231 band, the asian low and asian high, right at the 61.8% fib of the 1.1206–1.1260 rally while French spread stress keeps EUR heavy. Lower highs from the 1.1239 late ny high keep the descending trendline in place, and the ~3-pip ATR reflects pre-London compression.
Support: 1.12238, 1.12059, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12309, 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1224 asian low exposes the 1.1206 rally base and 1.1204 zew low
Close above the 1.1231 asian high breaks the descending trendline and opens 1.1239 late ny high
Lane 04:15 UTC and Lagarde 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US-Iran headlines moving oil and yields can override the Asian range
Tight Asian range sitting on the 61.8% retrace of Tuesday's rally.
Tuesday's NY spike to the 1.1260 spike high came as oil and yields dropped and the USD softened. It was fully rejected, and price has slipped back to the 61.8% retracement near 1.1226 as French spread stress weighs on EUR. The Asia session is boxed in a 1.1224–1.1231 range, between the asian low and asian high, below both EMAs, with ATR(14) at ~3 pips.
Support: 1.12238, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12308, 1.12389, 1.12603
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1224 asian low exposes Tuesday's 1.1204 day low
M15 close above the 1.1239 late NY high reopens the path to the 1.1260 spike high
ECB Lane 04:15 UTC and Nagel 07:15 UTC could break the Asian range before London open; Lagarde 16:30 UTC is the larger risk
03:01 UTC
Drifting lower after NY spike faded, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 1.12268
Tight Asian range, lower highs since late NY.
The NY spike to 1.1260 on Iran-driven USD softness was fully rejected, and Asia is holding a tight 1.1224–1.1231 range near the 61.8% retrace of the move up from the ZEW-miss London low at 1.1204. Lower highs since the 1.1239 late NY high cap the Asian high, with RSI(14) near 47 and ATR around 3 pips reflecting quiet mid-Asia trade.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1239, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 asian low and the 61.8% retrace exposes the 1.1204 london low
Close above the 1.1231 asian high and the lower-highs line brings the 1.1239 late ny high back into view
ECB's Lane at 04:15 UTC and the London open, ahead of Lagarde at 16:30 UTC, could break the Asian range
Tight Asian range under a lower-highs line after the 1.1260 spike faded.
Yesterday's NY spike to the 1.1260 spike high was rejected at the 1.1250 cap and fully faded. Price now sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 1.1204–1.1260 move, with lower highs since 22:00 UTC as French spread stress offsets the softer USD. The Asia session is boxed in a 1.1224–1.1231 range, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR at about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1239, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and exposes the 1.1239 lower high
Failure to hold the 1.1224 asian low opens the path toward the 1.1204 london low
ECB Lane at 04:15 UTC and Nagel at 07:15 UTC around London open could break the Asian range; Lagarde at 16:30 UTC is the larger test of the 1.1250 cap and 1.1260 spike high
US-Iran headlines moving oil and yields could shift the USD leg unscheduled
Early Asia session is grinding lower in a tight 1.1224–1.1229 Asian range, under a line of lower highs that began with the 22:00 UTC drop from the 1.1237 range top. Price sits at the 61.8% retrace of Tuesday's ZEW low to NY high move (1.1204–1.1260). The NY spike through the 1.1250 cap was rejected, with French spread stress keeping EUR lagging a softer USD.
Support: 1.12238, 1.1220, 1.12041
Resistance: 1.12293, 1.12372, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1224 asian low exposes the 1.1220 round number, then the 1.1204 zew low
An M15 close above the 1.1229 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.1237 range top back in view
ECB's Lane at 04:15 UTC and Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift the read; the 1.1250 cap rejected the last NY spike
Asian lower highs pressing session low, inside 1.1204–1.1260 day range.
Asia session has slipped from the 1.1237 asian high in a lower-high sequence and is pressing the 1.1224 asian low. That level sits on the 61.8% retrace of yesterday's rally from the 1.1204 zew low to the 1.1260 day high on US-Iran headlines. French fiscal risk keeps EUR heavy, and RSI(14) near 36 is not stretched.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1220, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1229, 1.1237, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 asian low exposes the 1.1220 swing low, then the 1.1204 zew low
Close above the 1.1229 lower high breaks the Asian descending trendline and brings the 1.1237 asian high back into view
ECB's Lane (04:15 UTC) and Nagel (07:15 UTC) speak ahead of London; Lagarde at 16:30 UTC is the larger event risk
01:46 UTC
Sideways to soft, lower highs since 22:00 UTC · RSI 41 · price 1.12273
Tight Asian range sitting on the 61.8% retrace of Tuesday's rally.
Asia session is compressing in a 1.1224–1.1232 range, right on the 61.8% fib of Tuesday's rally from the 1.1206 ZEW low. The US-Iran oil-driven spike to 1.1260 was rejected within the hour, and lower highs have capped price since the 22:00 UTC drop off the 1.1239 NY swing high. RSI(14) sits near 41, with price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1206
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 Asian low breaks the 61.8% fib hold and exposes the 1.1206 ZEW low
Close above the descending lower-highs line and the 1.1239 NY swing high reopens the 1.1250–1.1260 spike high area
ECB Lane at 04:15 UTC and Nagel at 07:15 UTC could break the Asian range ahead of London open
01:31 UTC
Pullback after NY rally, momentum soft · RSI 38 · price 1.12284
Lower highs since rollover, holding 61.8% fib.
Tuesday's rally from the 1.1204 ZEW low to the 1.1260 day high came on USD softness as oil fell on US-Iran deal hopes. Price has since slipped from the 1.1233–1.1239 late NY range after rollover and is holding the 61.8% retrace near the 1.1224 Asian low. The early Asian range is a tight 1.1224–1.1229, with RSI(14) near 38 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1220, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1229, 1.1239, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 Asian low breaks the 61.8% fib and opens the round number at 1.1220, then the 1.1204 ZEW low
Close above the 1.1229 Asian high shifts focus back to the 1.1239 late NY high; the 1.1260 day high sits just above the 1.1250 monthly cap
ECB Lane at 04:15 UTC and Nagel at 07:15 UTC could set the London tone ahead of Lagarde at 16:30 UTC
Oil / US-Iran headlines remain the main USD swing factor for this range
01:16 UTC
Drifting lower in early Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.12273
Post-spike retrace, lower highs below 1.1230.
Tuesday's oil-driven USD dip ran EURUSD from the 1.1206 London low to a 1.1260 spike high in NY. Price was rejected just above the 1.1250 cap and spent late NY inside a range capped by the 1.1239 NY range top. Early Asia broke below 1.1230 and is now sitting at the 61.8% spike fib near 1.1227, just above the 1.1224 Asian low, with RSI(14) soft at 38 and ATR(14) about 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1206
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1239, 1.1260
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1224 asian low extends the retrace toward the 1.1206 london low
Recovery above the 1.1230 breakdown and the 1.1239 ny range top restores the late-NY range, with the 1.1260 spike high above
ECB's Lane (04:15 UTC) and Nagel (07:15 UTC) into the London open, plus US-Iran oil headlines, could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Range after NY spike, mild downside drift in Asia · RSI 35 · price 1.12282
Failed push above 1.1250; early Asia printing lower highs inside 1.1224–1.1239.
NY spiked through the 1.1250 psych cap to a 1.1260 spike high around 14:30 UTC as oil and USD slid on US-Iran deal hopes. Price was rejected back into a 1.1225–1.1239 range. Early Asia is printing lower highs below EMA20 and testing the Asia low at 1.1224, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the 1.1204–1.1260 rally.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 asia low and 61.8% fib exposes the 1.1204 tue low
Close above the 1.1239 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.1250 psych cap and 1.1260 spike high back in focus
ECB's Lane (04:15 UTC) and Nagel (07:15 UTC) could set the tone into London; Lagarde at 16:30 UTC is the high-impact risk
Oil / US-Iran headlines remain the main USD swing factor for this range
00:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, drifting lower in Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.12268
Lower highs below the late-NY base, holding the Asia low.
The NY spike to the 1.1260 day high slipped back under the 1.1250 range top. Asia has since printed lower highs down to a 1.1224 low, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the 1.1204–1.1260 leg, with RSI(14) near 31. The late-NY base at 1.1237 now caps price, and yesterday's swings tracked oil-driven USD moves after the soft ZEW drop to the 1.1204 day low.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1250, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1224 asia low breaks the 61.8% fib and opens the 1.1204 day low
Reclaim of the 1.1237 late-ny base invalidates the Asia lower highs
ECB Lane (04:15 UTC) and Nagel (07:15 UTC) ahead of London open could reset the Asian range
Another push toward the 1.1250 range top and 1.1260 day high would test the repeated failure there
Lower highs since 1.1260 rejection, testing 1.1225 swing lows.
NY session spiked EURUSD to a 1.1260 day high on softer USD (oil lower, weak pending home sales). The move failed back below the 1.1250 cap within the hour, a rejection that unwound most of the rally off the 1.1204 day low set on the ZEW miss. Price has drifted lower since rollover and is now sitting on the 61.8% fib near 1.1225, which lines up with Tuesday's swing lows; early Asia session, RSI(14) near 26 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1220, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1232, 1.1239, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 1.1225 exposes the 1.1220 round number and then the 1.1204 day low
Recovery above the 50% fib at 1.1232 and the 1.1239 ny high would negate the post-spike lower-high sequence
Repeat failure near the 1.1260 day high keeps the 1.1250 cap intact as a false break
ECB Lane at 04:15 UTC and Lagarde at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Intraday pullback after a failed NY spike · RSI 31 · price 1.12274
Late-NY box 1.1225–1.1239 broken lower after rollover, testing the NY low.
The NY rally from the 1.1206 low spiked to 1.1260 as US-Iran deal hopes pulled oil and USD lower, but it was rejected straight back under the 1.1250 range cap. The pair then held a 1.1225–1.1239 box into rollover and slipped in early Asia to 1.1226, now sitting on the NY low near the 61.8% retracement of that rally. RSI(14) is around 31 and ATR is under 3 pips, so the tape is thin.
Support: 1.1225, 1.1220, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1250, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1225 NY low breaks the 61.8% retracement and exposes the 1.1220 round number, then the 1.1204 London low
Recovery above the 1.1239 late NY high restores the box and puts the 1.1250 range cap back in view
ECB Lane 04:15 UTC, then Nagel 07:15 and Cipollone 08:00 UTC, could jolt the thin Asian range
US-Iran or oil headlines remain the main USD swing factor, and a fresh spike toward the 1.1260 spike high depends on them