EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 19 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Flat after NY lower highs, compression · RSI 50 · price 1.12116
Tight Asia band inside London rebound retracement.
French-unrest selling broke the Asian range in London to a 1.1186 london low. The rebound to the 1.1231 london high gave way to NY lower highs and a 1.1202 ny low on the 61.8% London rebound fib. Thin early Asia trade is now pinned at 1.1209–1.1214, between the 38.2% and 50% levels, with RSI(14) near 50 and ATR(14) around 2 pips.
Support: 1.1209, 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.1231, 1.1234
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1209 overnight low exposes the 1.1202 ny low / 61.8% London rebound fib, then the 1.1186 london low
M15 close above the 1.1218 lower high ends the NY lower-high sequence; 1.1231 london high and 1.1234 asian high sit above
German PPI 06:00 UTC and ZEW 09:00 UTC could break the compression into London open
French political headlines remain the dominant EUR event risk for this read
23:31 UTC
Lower highs since London high, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 1.12115
Descending highs off 1.1231 with the NY low at 1.1202 holding; tight 5-pip coil into early Asia.
London open broke the Asian range on French protest risk, flushing to the 1.1186 London low before recovering to a 1.1231 London high. Since then the session has printed a lower-high trendline into the 1.1218 swing high. The NY low at 1.1202 held near the 61.8% fib, and price is now coiling 1.1209–1.1214 on EMA20 in early Asia, with ATR(14) near 2 pips.
Support: 1.12087, 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12176, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1218 swing high and the lower-high trendline breaks the descending-highs sequence
Loss of the 1.1209 range low exposes the 1.1202 NY low and the 61.8% fib
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC could break the Asian coil
French spread or protest headlines remain the main event risk for the London high / London low extremes
Tightening range 1.1209–1.1218 below a descending lower-high line, early Asia.
French-unrest pressure produced a London open break below 1.12 to the london low at 1.1186. It was reclaimed within the hour, and the rebound stalled at the 1.1231 midday high. Since then the NY session has printed a chain of lower highs down to 1.1218 while the ny low at 1.1202 held near the 61.8% retracement, leaving a 1.1209–1.1218 drift with ATR compressed to under 3 pips.
Support: 1.12087, 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12176, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1218 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts 1.1231 midday high and the 1.1234 asian high back in view
Failure of the 1.1209 late floor and then the 1.1202 ny low exposes the 1.1186 london low
German PPI (06:00 UTC) and ZEW (09:00 UTC) Tuesday could break the range around London open
French political headlines (OAT-Bund spread vs ~150bp) remain the main event risk for the euro
Post-rollover compression 1.1209–1.1214 under a descending high line.
London open broke below 1.12 to the 1.1186 london low on French spread stress, then reclaimed the handle quickly in a false break. Highs have stepped down from the 1.1231 london high to the 1.1218 swing high, with the 1.1202 ny low below. Post-rollover trade is pinned in a 3–5 pip late range at 1.1209–1.1214, RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.1209, 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.1231
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1218 swing high breaks the lower-high line and reopens 1.1231
Loss of the 1.1209 late range low puts the 1.1202 ny low back in play; below that, the 1.1186 london low
French OAT-Bund spread headlines and Tue 09:00 UTC ZEW could expand the sub-3 pip ATR sharply at London open
22:31 UTC
Sideways after London selloff, lower highs since midday · RSI 52 · price 1.12129
Lower highs from 1.1231 compressing into a 1.1209–1.1214 range into the Asia open.
French unrest and a wider OAT-Bund spread drove a London-open flush to the london low at 1.1186, below the 1.12 handle. The rebound high at 1.1231 has since capped a chain of lower highs. Price held the 61.8% retracement near the ny low at 1.1202 and is now compressing in a thin 1.1209–1.1214 range, with the trendline overhead at the 1.1218 lower high.
Support: 1.1209, 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.1231
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1218 lower high breaks the descending trendline and opens a retest of the 1.1231 rebound high
Loss of the 1.1209 range low puts the 1.1202 ny low and 61.8% fib back in play
Failure at the 1.1202 ny low exposes the 1.1186 london low
French spread or protest headlines overnight could materially shift this read; ZEW at 09:00 UTC Tue is the next scheduled risk
Lower highs compressing into a 1.1209–1.1218 band above the NY low.
London open broke below 1.12 to the london low at 1.1186 on French spread stress, but the break failed and price recovered to the london high at 1.1231. NY then printed a series of lower highs, the latest at 1.1218, with the ny low at 1.1202 holding near the 61.8% retrace. Price is now compressing around 1.1210 into Asia after rollover, RSI(14) neutral and ATR(14) near 3 pips.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.1231, 1.1234
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1218 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence; above that, 1.1231 london high and 1.1234 asian high are the next levels
Failure to hold the 1.1202 ny low exposes the 1.1186 london low again
French OAT-Bund spread headlines are the main overnight risk; German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ZEW at 09:00 UTC Tuesday could shift this read
21:46 UTC
Intraday lower highs after London rebound, now flat · RSI 42 · price 1.12101
Post-NY compression 1.1209–1.1218 inside a 1.1202–1.1231 band.
London open broke below the Asian range and swept under 1.12 to the 1.1186 day low as French spread stress hit EUR. The rebound stalled at the 1.1231 london high, just under the 1.1234 asian high. NY then printed lower highs and the ny low at 1.1202 held near the 61.8% of the London rebound fib; post-NY trade is compressing below the 1.1218 late high, with price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.1231, 1.1234
What it said to watch
Close above 1.1218 late high and the lower-highs line ends the compression; 1.1231 london high and 1.1234 asian high sit next
Failure to hold the 1.1202 ny low reopens the 1.1186 day low
French protest / OAT-Bund spread headlines during the Asia session could shift this read
German PPI 06:00 UTC and ZEW 09:00 UTC Tuesday are the next scheduled EUR risk
21:31 UTC
Intraday lower highs, compressing into the close · RSI 41 · price 1.12092
Lower-high sequence from 1.1231 capping NY; tight 1.1209-1.1213 band after NY close.
London's dip under 1.12 on French spread stress printed the london low at 1.1186 and reversed, a false break, before the recovery stalled at the 1.1231 london high. NY then built lower highs down to the 1.1218 lower high. After the NY close, price is pinned near the 50% retrace of the London leg, holding above the 1.1202 ny low, with ATR compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.1231
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1218 lower high breaks the descending trendline and points back to the 1.1231 london high
Failure at the 1.1202 ny low exposes the 1.1186 london low and a retest of the false break
French OAT-Bund spread headlines overnight could reprice EUR outside the Asian range
German PPI (06:00 UTC) and ZEW (09:00 UTC) Tuesday could set London's direction
Lower highs since London high, compressing above NY low.
French unrest drove a London-open drop through the 1.1200 round number to the 1.1186 London low. That break failed and price recovered to the 1.1231 London high. NY then printed lower highs down to 1.1218 and is now compressing above the 1.1202 NY low in thin post-NY trade, near the 50% retracement of the London swing at 1.1209.
Support: 1.12023, 1.1200, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12176, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1202 NY low reopens the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1186 London low
Close above the 1.1218 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline; the 1.1231 London high and 1.1234 Asian high sit above
German PPI (06:00 UTC) and ZEW (09:00 UTC) Tue, plus French OAT-Bund spread headlines, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.12307, lows holding above 1.12023.
London open swept below 1.12 to the 1.11862 london low on French spread stress. The rebound stalled at the 1.12307 london high, under the 1.12344 asian high. NY then printed lower highs down to the 1.12176 lower high, and late-session price is coiling near the 50% of that rebound with the 1.12023 ny low intact.
Support: 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12176, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12176 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 1.12307 london high
Failure to hold the 1.12023 ny low (61.8% of the rebound) exposes the 1.11862 london low
Tue 09:00 UTC ZEW and any French OAT-Bund spread headlines could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Intraday lower highs, compressing late NY · RSI 53 · price 1.12112
Lower highs since the London rebound high, tight late NY base above NY low.
French-unrest weekend gap partly filled in Asia to the 1.1234 Asia high, then London open sold to the 1.1186 London low before a rebound to 1.1231. A run of lower highs since then, down to 1.1218, has compressed price into a 1.1209–1.1218 late NY base above the 1.1202 NY low, which sits near the 61.8% of the rebound fib. Price is pressing the descending lower-highs line, RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR(14) has shrunk to about 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.12093, 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12176, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-highs line and the 1.1218 lower high breaks the descending sequence; the 1.1231 rebound high and 1.1234 Asia high sit above
Loss of the 1.1209 late NY base exposes the 1.1202 NY low, then the 1.1186 London low
French OAT-Bund spread headlines overnight and Tue ZEW (09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
ATR near 3.4 pips into the Asia session points to compression; range expansion likely needs a headline catalyst
20:31 UTC
Sideways after gap lower, highs drifting down · RSI 47 · price 1.12109
Lower highs since London high, compressing above NY low.
The Sunday gap lower on French protest headlines failed to fill against the 1.1238 Friday close. London briefly broke below 1.12 to the 1.1186 London low, then rebounded to a 1.1231 London high. NY has printed a chain of lower highs, down to 1.1218, and late-session price is compressing between that lower high and the 1.1202 NY low, near the 50% retrace of the London rebound, with RSI(14) flat at 47.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.1231, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1202 NY low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.1186 London low back in play
Close above the 1.1218 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens 1.1231 London high, then the 1.1238 Friday close gap fill
ATR(14) at ~4 pips: the Asian range is likely to stay narrow without French spread headlines
German PPI (06:00 UTC) and ZEW (09:00 UTC) on Tuesday could break the compression early in London
Lower highs from 1.1231, compressing above NY low.
Monday opened with a ~48-pip gap lower on French unrest. Most of it filled early in Asia, then the London open flush printed the 1.1186 london low before a rebound to the 1.1231 day high. Since then highs have stepped lower. The NY low at 1.1202 held near the 61.8% of the london swing, and late NY is compressing under the 1.1218 swing high with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12176, 1.12307
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1218 swing high breaks the lower-highs line from 1.1231
Failure to hold the 1.1202 ny low exposes the 1.1186 london low
Tue 09:00 UTC ZEW and any French OAT-Bund spread headlines could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.1231 day high would neutralise the intraday lower-high sequence
Weekend gap partly filled, compressing under descending highs.
Weekend French unrest gapped EURUSD ~48 pips below the 1.1238 friday close, and the London open swept down to the 1.1186 london low before recovering to the 1.1231 london high. Since then the lower highs have compressed price into a 1.1209–1.1218 late-NY band at the 50% level of the London leg fib, with the ny low at 1.1202 just beneath and RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12176, 1.12307, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1218 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.1231 london high back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.1202 ny low (61.8% of the London leg fib) exposes the 1.1186 london low
An unfilled gap toward the 1.1238 friday close remains overhead; French spread headlines in Asia hours could move it either way
Tue 09:00 UTC ZEW and OAT-Bund spread moves could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 51 · price 1.12113
Lower highs from 1.1231, holding above the 1.1202 NY low.
EUR/USD gapped about 48 pips lower at the weekend open on French unrest. The gap fill toward Friday's 1.1238 close stalled at the 1.1234 Asian high, and the London open slide to the 1.1186 london low was bought back. Since the 1.1231 london high, NY has printed a lower-high chain, with the 1.1202 NY low holding and price coiling at 1.1209–1.1218 under trendline resistance after London close.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.1231, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1218 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens 1.1231
Loss of the 1.1202 NY low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1186 london low
Gap fill at 1.1238 stays unfinished while price holds below 1.1231
German PPI (06:00 UTC) and ZEW (09:00 UTC) Tue, plus French OAT-Bund spread headlines, could shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1231 NY high, holding above 1.1202 NY low.
EUR gapped lower at the open on French unrest and wider OAT-Bund spreads, leaving Friday's 1.1238 close unfilled; London's false break below 1.12 to the 1.1186 london low was bought back to the 1.1231 ny high. Since then a lower high sequence (1.1228, 1.1222, 1.1218) has squeezed price toward 1.1211, sitting near the 50% fib of that london low–ny high leg, with RSI(14) flat at ~49 and ATR(14) about 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12176, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1218 lower high breaks the descending trendline and exposes the 1.1231 ny high and 1.1234 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1202 ny low (near the 61.8% fib) reopens the 1.1186 london low
Tue 09:00 UTC ZEW and French spread headlines could materially shift this read
Thin Asia session liquidity may keep price inside the 1.1202–1.1218 band
19:16 UTC
Mild intraday downtrend, lower highs since late London · RSI 47 · price 1.12112
Lower-high sequence from 1.1231, holding above the 1.1202 NY low.
The week opened with a weekend gap of roughly 48 pips lower on French unrest. Most of it filled in the first hour, and the London-open false break below 1.12 to the 1.1186 London low reversed to a 1.1231 session high. Since then price has printed lower highs through NY hours, with the NY low at 1.1202 sitting near the 61.8% fib. Price is now at 1.1211, around the 50% retracement, RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and ATR is compressing late in the session.
Support: 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12176, 1.12307
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1218 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1231 session high
Close below the 1.1202 NY low (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.1186 London low
French OAT-Bund spread headlines and Tue 09:00 UTC ZEW could shift this read at the London open
19:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 41 · price 1.12114
Lower-high sequence into late NY, NY low holding.
The weekend gap lower on French unrest was mostly retraced in Asia, with the Asian high at 1.1234. The London open drop then swept to 1.1186 and rebounded to the London high at 1.1231. Lower highs have run since then, with the NY low at 1.1202 holding near the 61.8% retrace of the London rally and the latest lower high at 1.1218 capping late-NY trade.
Support: 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12176, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1202 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1186 london low
Close above the 1.1218 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.1231 london high and 1.1234 asian high back in view
French protest and OAT/Bund spread headlines remain the main overnight driver
German ZEW Tue 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs under a descending trendline from the London high; lows holding 1.1202–1.1207.
French unrest drove a weekend gap down that Asia mostly filled. London open then broke the Asian low to 1.11862 before recovering to a 1.12307 London high. Since then the NY session has printed lower highs along a descending trendline, with the NY low at 1.12023 sitting near the 61.8% of the London leg fib. Price is now compressing late in NY between the 1.12065 higher low and the 1.12176 lower high, with ATR shrinking.
Support: 1.12065, 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12176, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower high at 1.12176 breaks the descending trendline and reopens the london high at 1.12307
Failure to hold the higher low at 1.12065 exposes the ny low at 1.12023, then the london low at 1.11862
Asian high at 1.12344 capped the gap fill; Friday's 1.1238 close remains unfilled
French spread headlines overnight and Tue ZEW at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since London · RSI 49 · price 1.12158
Lower highs from the 1.1231 London high; late NY rebound off the 1.1202 session low.
Sunday opened ~48 pips below Friday's 1.1238 close on French unrest. The Asian high at 1.1234 capped the rebound, and London dropped to 1.1186 before the soft USD pulled it back. Since the 1.1231 London high the lower-highs sequence has held, and late NY is retracing from the 1.1202 session low into the 50% fib near 1.1216, just under EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
Support: 1.1210, 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12215, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1222 breaks the lower highs line and opens the 1.1231 London high, then the 1.1234 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1210 ny lows exposes the 1.1202 session low, then the 1.1186 London low
French headlines and the OAT/Bund spread, plus German PPI (06:00 UTC) and ZEW (09:00 UTC) on Tuesday, could shift this read
Lower highs from the 1.1231 London high; NY low 1.1202 holding near the 61.8% retrace.
The Sunday gap down from Friday's 1.1238 close was mostly filled early in Asia. London then broke below the 1.1222–1.1234 Asian range on French unrest headlines, reaching a 1.1186 london low before recovering to the 1.1231 london high. NY printed a lower high at 1.1222, and the 1.1202 ny low held near the 61.8% fib of the London move; late in the NY session price is pressing the descending trendline and EMA50 near 1.1217.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1231
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1222 lower high breaks the descending sequence and opens 1.1231 london high
Failure to hold the 1.1202 ny low and the 1.1200 handle exposes the 1.1186 london low
German PPI (Tue 06:00 UTC), ZEW (Tue 09:00 UTC) and French political headlines could shift this read into London
18:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bounce from NY low · RSI 52 · price 1.12146
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1231 swing high; price testing the trendline.
Sunday's gap lower was mostly filled, then London open sold to the 1.1186 London low on French spread stress before recovering to the 1.1231 swing high. Since then the session has printed lower highs and lower lows into the 1.1202 NY low. Late NY, price is retesting the lower-high trendline near 1.1216, between the 38.2% and 50% fib levels; the Asian high at 1.1234 is above.
Support: 1.12023, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12215, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1222 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 1.1231 swing high and 1.1234 Asian high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.1202 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1186 London low
Overnight French political headlines and Tue 09:00 UTC ZEW could materially shift this read
Lower highs in NY session above the 1.1202 NY low.
The Sunday gap down was filled inside the first hour. Asia then capped at the 1.1234 asian high, and London false-broke the Asian floor to a 1.1186 london low on French spread stress before rebounding to 1.1231. NY has printed a chain of lower highs since, with the 1.1202 ny low holding near the 61.8% retrace of the London rebound late in the session.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1234
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1222 lower high breaks the NY lower-high trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1202 ny low exposes the 1.1186 london low
Close back above the 1.1234 asian high reopens the Asia range top
French political headlines and OAT/Bund spread moves could jolt the pair in thin Asia trade
German PPI 06:00 UTC and ZEW 09:00 UTC Tue are the next scheduled EUR risk
17:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 40 · price 1.12083
Lower highs and lower lows in NY, Sunday gap unfilled.
Sunday's ~48-pip gap down on French unrest never filled. The Asian high at 1.1234 stalled below Friday's 1.1238 close, and London's sweep to the 1.1186 london low was bought back to the 1.1231 london high. NY has since printed lower highs at 1.1226 (ny high), 1.1222 and 1.1213, with a 1.1202 ny low. Price sits at the 50% of the london leg fib near 1.1208, below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.12023, 1.11862, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12126, 1.12255, 1.12307
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1202 ny low extends the lower-high chain toward the 1.1186 london low and the 1.1180 sunday low
A break above the 1.1213 lower high and the lower highs trendline returns price to the 1.1226 ny high / 1.1231 london high zone
Tue 06:00 UTC German PPI and 09:00 UTC ZEW, plus French political headlines, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 11:15 UTC London high.
The Sunday gap down from the 1.1238 friday close was partly filled in Asia. French spread stress then drove a London false break below the Asian range to 1.1186, which reversed to a 1.1231 london high. Since then NY has printed a chain of lower highs, the latest at 1.1222, and a 1.1202 ny low. Price sits at 1.1211, after London close, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1231, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1222 lower high breaks the NY lower-high trendline and reopens the 1.1231 london high
Failure to hold the 1.1202 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1186 london low
Gap-fill toward the 1.1238 friday close only in play on a reclaim of 1.1231
French political headlines and OAT/Bund spread moves could shift this read during the Asia session; ZEW Tue 09:00 UTC
17:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 38 · price 1.12082
Lower highs and lower lows through NY, below 1.1231 London high and 1.1234 Asian high.
French unrest drove a weekend gap lower to a 1.1180 gap low, which filled quickly. London then made a false break below 1.1200 to the 1.1186 London low, rebounded to a 1.1231 London high under the 1.1234 Asian high, and has since printed a falling trendline of lower highs. After London close, price sits near 1.1208, just above the fresh 1.1202 NY low and below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 38 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.12023, 1.11862, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12215, 1.12307, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1222 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1202 NY low exposes the 1.1186 London low and the 1.1180 gap low, near the 1.1175/80 support zone
A reclaim of the 1.1231 London high and the 1.1234 Asian high would neutralise the decline
Tue 06:00 UTC German PPI and 09:00 UTC ZEW could reset the range, and French political headlines are the unscheduled risk
Weekend gap mostly filled; London swing low then NY lower highs and lower lows.
EURUSD gapped about 48 pips lower at the weekly open on French unrest and fiscal stress, filled most of it in Asia, then London swept below the Asian low to the london low at 1.1186. The rebound stalled at the london high of 1.1231, short of the 1.1238 gap fill, and late NY has printed a lower high sequence (latest 1.1222) with a fresh ny low at 1.1202. Price sits on the 50% retracement of the London swing with RSI(14) near 41, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1231, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1202 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1186 london low
Close above the 1.1222 lower high breaks the NY descending sequence and puts the 1.1231 london high back in play
Holding the 50% retracement of the London swing near 1.1208 keeps the morning rebound intact
German PPI (Tue 06:00 UTC) and ZEW (Tue 09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Unscheduled French political headlines remain the larger risk to this read
16:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since late London · RSI 37 · price 1.12058
NY lower-high sequence, 1.1210 floor broken after London close.
EUR gapped lower at the Sunday open on French unrest. London open swept to the london low at 1.1186 and rebounded to the london high at 1.1231. NY then printed lower highs, the latest at 1.1222, and after London close slipped through the 1.1210 prior floor to a 1.1202 session low, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.12023, 1.11862, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.12215, 1.12307
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.1210 prior floor negates the NY break
Loss of the 1.1202 session low exposes the 1.1186 london low and the 1.1180 gap low
Break of the lower-high trendline from 1.1231 reopens the 1.1222 lower high
Unscheduled French political headlines are the main overnight risk; German PPI (06:00 UTC) and ZEW (09:00 UTC) follow Tuesday
Lower-high/lower-low sequence through NY after the London rebound.
EUR gapped about 48 pips lower at the Sunday open on French unrest. London opened with a sweep below 1.1200 to the 1.1186 london low, then rebounded to the 1.1231 session high just under the 1.1234 asian high. Since then NY has carved a trendline of lower highs, and price is testing the 1.1205 swing low between the 50% and 61.8% of the London leg fib, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1205, 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1231, 1.1234
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 psych and 61.8% fib exposes the 1.1186 london low
M15 close above the 1.1222 lower high breaks the NY trendline and the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1231 session high puts the 1.1234 asian high back in play
No scheduled data in the next 8h; French political or OAT-Bund spread headlines remain the main shock risk
16:01 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower since late London · RSI 43 · price 1.12108
Lower highs pressing a flat 1.1210 base in late NY.
French unrest drove a ~48-pip gap down at the weekly open, mostly filled during the Asia session. London swept below 1.12 to the london low at 1.1186, then the london leg recovered to the london high at 1.1231. Since late London, NY has printed lower highs against a flat ny low near 1.1210, with price below EMA20/50 and RSI(14) ~43.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1205, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1231, 1.1234
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the ny low at 1.1210 puts the london base at 1.1205 and the 50% london leg fib near 1.1208 in play
A close above the lower highs line near 1.1222 negates the compression read, with the london high at 1.1231 and the asian high at 1.1234 next
Failure to hold the london low at 1.1186 would reopen the weekend gap lows
Tue 09:00 UTC ZEW and French political headlines could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Neutral after gap, lower highs since late London · RSI 47 · price 1.12184
Compression: lower highs into a flat 1.1210 floor.
EUR gapped about 48 pips lower at the weekly open on French unrest, and the London sweep below the gap to 1.1186 (london low) was bought back to 1.1231 (london high). NY has since printed lower highs into a flat 1.1210 ny low, with RSI(14) neutral at 47 and price pinned between EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1210 ny low breaks the compression and exposes the 1.1186 london low
Close above the lower-highs trendline and 1.1231 london high reopens the 1.1238 friday close gap
French political headlines and OAT-Bund spread remain the main EUR swing factor into the Asia session
1.1210–1.1231 range with lower highs compressing into the asian low.
EUR gapped about 48 pips lower at the open on French unrest. Asia filled most of it, and London's dip below 1.12 to the 1.1186 london low was rejected, with a rally back to the 1.1231 session high. Through the London-NY transition price has printed lower highs into the 1.1211 asian low and now sits on the 38.2% of the London rally, just under EMA20/50.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1205, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1231, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1211 asian low exposes the 1.1205 london base, then the 1.1186 london low
Close above the 1.1225 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1231 session high
Weekend gap still open to the 1.1238 friday close; a fill there would change the read
French political headlines are the dominant EUR risk overnight; ZEW sentiment Tue 09:00 UTC is the next scheduled test
15:16 UTC
Intraday range after gap down, slight downward drift · RSI 46 · price 1.12171
NY lower highs compressing into a 1.1210 base.
EUR gapped about 48 pips lower at the weekly open on French unrest and dipped to the 1.1180 gap low. It then reversed from the 1.1186 london low to 1.1231, and that london high stalled short of the Friday-close gap fill at 1.1238. Through NY hours the pair has printed a lower high at 1.1228 and held a 1.1210 ny low, with price now just under EMA20/50 near London close and RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1186, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1228, 1.1231, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1210 ny low breaks the London rally fib's 38.2% (1.1214) and exposes the 1.1186 london low, then the 1.1180 gap low
Close above the lower-high trendline and 1.1228 reopens the 1.1231 london high and the 1.1238 gap fill
French political headlines and OAT-Bund spreads remain the main risk overnight ahead of Tue 09:00 UTC ZEW
15:01 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower in NY · RSI 43 · price 1.12126
Lower highs from 1.1231 pressing the 1.1210 NY low.
Weekend gap lower on French unrest was mostly filled in Asia, then London swept down to the 1.1186 london low and rallied to the 1.1231 session high. NY has printed a chain of lower highs into the 1.1210 ny low, putting price about 40% back into the London leg with RSI(14) near 43 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1206, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1231, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1210 ny low exposes the 1.1206 london base, then the 1.1186 london low (61.8% of the London leg sits near 1.1203)
Close above the 1.1225 lower high breaks the NY lower-highs line; clearing the 1.1231 session high reopens the 1.1238 friday close gap level
No scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h; French political and OAT/Bund spread headlines are the main risk to this read
14:46 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since late London · RSI 46 · price 1.12125
Lower highs pressing flat 1.1210 support inside 1.1186–1.1234 day range.
The weekend gap lower on French unrest only partly filled: the Asian high at 1.1234 capped, then London dipped to a 1.1186 london low that failed to hold and rebounded to a 1.1231 session high. Through the London-NY overlap, highs keep stepping lower along the lower highs trendline against the 1.1210 session low. Price sits below both EMAs near the 38.2% of the london rebound, with RSI(14) at 46.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1205, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1231, 1.1234
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1210 session low exposes the 1.1205 london base, then the 1.1186 london low
Close above the 1.1225 lower high breaks the lower highs sequence and reopens the 1.1231 session high and 1.1234 asian high
French unrest or OAT/Bund spread headlines remain the main shock risk for this range
London close approaching; the session range may tighten further into late NY hours
Lower highs in NY session, price testing the Asian low.
Monday's opening gap lower on French unrest was mostly filled during the Asian session. The London open then swept below the Asian range to the 1.1186 London low and reversed back into it. In the NY session, price has printed a lower high at 1.1228 under the 1.1231 London high and is back on the 1.1210 Asian low, with RSI(14) neutral near 45 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1205, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1228, 1.1234
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1210 Asian low brings the 1.1205 London base and the 50% retracement of the London rally near 1.1208 into play.
Failure to hold the London base exposes the 1.1186 London low, the intraday floor the digest also flags.
An M15 close above the 1.1228 lower high breaks the NY lower-highs line and puts the 1.1234 Asian high back in focus.
French unrest and OAT/Bund spread headlines are the main intraday driver, with no scheduled EUR or USD data in the next 8h.
14:16 UTC
Recovering from London low, flattening into NY · RSI 55 · price 1.12216
Higher lows off 1.1186, capped under Asian high; coiling 1.1211–1.1231.
Sunday's gap lower on French unrest was mostly filled in Asia. London's break below the Asian range to the 1.1186 london low was quickly reclaimed as the USD bid faded on the AI-equity unwind. Early NY is coiling between the 1.1211 ny low and the 1.1231 london high on a rising trendline. Price sits just under the Asian high and the 78.6% retrace, with EMAs flat underneath.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1205, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1234, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1211 ny low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.1205 higher low
Failure at 1.1205 reopens the 1.1186 london low (digest's 1.1185 base)
Close above the 1.1231 london high and 1.1234 asian high opens the 1.1238 gap fill (Friday close)
No scheduled data in the next 8h; French protest / OAT-Bund spread headlines could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Neutral after recovery from London low, compressing · RSI 50 · price 1.12185
Lower highs from 1.1231 against rising lows off 1.1186, inside the Asian range.
The Monday gap lower from Friday's 1.1238 close was mostly retraced in Asia, setting an Asian range of 1.1211–1.1234. London opened with a false break to the 1.1186 London low on French fiscal stress, then rebuilt from the 1.1205 London base. In the first hour of NY, price is coiling between lower highs off the 1.1231 London high and rising lows, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1205, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1234, 1.1238
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1234 Asian high breaks the lower highs and opens the 1.1238 gap fill at Friday's close
Loss of the 1.1211 Asian low, then the 1.1205 London base, breaks the rising lows and re-exposes the 1.1186 London low
No scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h; French OAT/Bund spread headlines and the US tech-equity tone are the main swing factors
13:46 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows since London · RSI 62 · price 1.12238
Higher-low chain inside the Asian range, capped below 1.1231-1.1234.
French unrest drove a ~48-pip gap lower at the open, which Asia mostly filled. London then broke below the Asian range to the 1.1186 london low, a false break that drew a higher-low recovery along a rising trendline as the USD bid faded. Price now sits early in the NY session between the 1.1211 ny low and the 1.1231 london high, just under the 1.1234 asian high, with RSI(14) near 62 and no extreme.
Support: 1.12112, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12307, 1.12344, 1.12382
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12344 asian high breaks the Asian range and puts the 1.12382 friday close (gap fill) in play
Loss of the 1.12112 ny low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes the 1.11862 london low
Fresh French escalation or a wider OAT/Bund spread could reverse the recovery quickly; a hold of 1.1231 keeps the range read intact
13:31 UTC
Recovering intraday, capped below Asian high · RSI 59 · price 1.12238
Higher lows since London false break, back inside Asian range.
Monday's gap down to the 1.1180 gap low on French fiscal stress filled within an hour. London open then broke the Asian low to 1.1186 before a V-shaped recovery, and the early-NY dip held the asian low at 1.1211 as a higher low. Price is pressing the 1.1231 london high and 1.1234 asian high in the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1186, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1234, 1.1261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the 1.1261 friday high
Loss of the 1.1211 asian low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1186 london low, then the 1.1180 gap low
Rebound line break, or acceptance below the 50% fib of the London rebound near 1.1209, would put the recovery in question
Fresh French unrest or OAT/Bund spread headlines could quickly reverse the London rebound
13:16 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows since London · RSI 57 · price 1.12234
Rising lows inside the Asian range, capped below the London high.
The weekend gap down to 1.1180 on French unrest was mostly filled within the first hour. London then broke the 1.1211 asian low to a 1.1186 london low and reclaimed it, and the london rally has printed rising lows since. In the first hour of NY, price sits at 1.1223 inside the Asian range, just under the 1.1231 london high and the 1.1238 gap fill (Friday close), with RSI(14) at 57 and ATR near 7 pips.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1205, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1234, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1234 asian high exposes the 1.1238 gap fill and breaks the Asian range to the upside
Close below 1.1211 asian low breaks the rising lows trendline; the 1.1205 swing low is the next pivot, then the 1.1186 london low
The 12:30 dip held between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the london rally; a break of the 61.8% near 1.1203 negates the recovery
Fresh French headlines or OAT/Bund spread moves could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
London rebound fading into NY · RSI 51 · price 1.1216
Lower high under 1.1231 session high, pullback to 38.2% fib.
EUR/USD gapped lower at the weekly open on French fiscal stress. The USD then gave back its haven bid, and the gap came close to filling. London swept the Asian range to a 1.1186 london low, then rallied to a 1.1231 session high, but the 1.1229 lower high has given way to a first-hour-of-NY fade into the 1.1211 asian low, which lines up with the 38.2% of the london rally fib.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1205, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1238
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1211 asian low exposes the 1.1205 london base, near the 61.8% of the london rally fib
A break of the 1.1205 london base reopens the 1.1186 london low, the digest's intraday floor
An M15 close above the 1.1231 session high puts the 1.1238 gap fill (Friday close) back in play
No scheduled EUR or USD release in the next 8h, so French political headlines are the main risk to this read
London rebound off 1.1186 sweep, lower high at 1.1229.
The weekend gap lower on French fiscal stress left Friday's 1.1238 close as an unfilled gap fill. Asia capped at the 1.1234 asian high, then London swept to the 1.1186 london low (the flagged intraday floor) and rebounded into a 1.1205 range base. The recovery was rejected at the 1.1231 london high, a lower high printed at 1.1229, and price is drifting toward the 1.1214 fib 38.2 into the NY open.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1205, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1234, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 asian high breaks the lower highs line and puts the 1.1238 gap fill in play
Failure to hold the 1.1214 fib 38.2 exposes the 1.1205 range base
A break of the 1.1186 london low negates the sweep-and-recover read
French protest or OAT/Bund spread headlines are the main risk, with no scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h
12:31 UTC
Recovering off London low, stalling below session high · RSI 53 · price 1.12222
Higher lows from 1.1186, capped at 1.1231 inside the Asian range.
The London open swept the Asian low down to the 1.1186 London low as French spread stress hit EUR. Price recovered once USD gave back its opening gains, printing a higher low at 1.1205 along a rising trendline. It now sits on a 1.1221 double low into the first hour of NY, with the session high at 1.1231, the Asian high at 1.1234 and the weekend gap fill at Friday's 1.1238 close all overhead. RSI(14) is neutral at 53.
Support: 1.12213, 1.12049, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12307, 1.12344, 1.12382
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1221 double low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1205 higher low
M15 close above the 1.1231 session high and 1.1234 Asian high opens the 1.1238 gap fill
Fresh OAT-Bund spread widening is the main unscheduled risk to a retest of the 1.1186 London low
London false break below Asian low reclaimed; higher lows since 1.1186.
London open broke below the Asian range and dropped to the london low at 1.1186 as French spread stress weighed on EUR. Price then reclaimed the range on higher lows off the 1.1205 swing low and now sits at 1.1226, under the 1.1231 session high and the 1.1234 asian high. Above that, the weekend gap fill at Friday's 1.1238 close is still open.
Support: 1.12213, 1.12049, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12307, 1.12344, 1.12382
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 asian high puts the 1.1238 gap fill in play
Loss of the 1.1221 pullback low would leave price ranging back inside the London band
Break of the 1.1205 swing low cancels the London higher lows; the london low at 1.1186 is next
NY open and fresh French OAT-Bund spread headlines could shift this read
Support around the 38.2% retrace of the London leg (~1.1214) on any deeper pullback
12:01 UTC
Intraday rebound stalling below the Asian high · RSI 58 · price 1.12215
London false break of the Asian low reversed; price back inside the Asian range.
EURUSD gapped lower at the weekly open on French spread stress. The London open pushed below the Asian low at 1.1211 to a London low at 1.1186, then reversed. The rebound from the 1.1205 range base was rejected at the 1.1231 session high, just under the Asian high at 1.1234. Price is back inside the Asian range and sitting on EMA50 ahead of the NY open, with the Friday gap fill at 1.1238 still open.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1205, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1234, 1.1238
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1234 Asian high puts the 1.1238 gap fill in play
Loss of the 1.1205 range base and the rally support from the London low re-exposes 1.1186
French OAT-Bund spread headlines remain the main unscheduled risk; there is no scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h
11:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off London low · RSI 57 · price 1.12252
HH/HL chain since 07:45 UTC false break, back inside Asian range.
EUR gapped ~48 pips lower at the weekly open on French unrest and recovered most of it in Asia. Early London broke the asian low at 1.1211 and extended to a london low at 1.1186 before reversing, so the break failed. A higher low at 1.1205 and a new london high at 1.1231 have followed, with RSI(14) near 57 and the asian high (1.1234) and gap fill (1.1238) overhead into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.12108, 1.12049, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12307, 1.12344, 1.12382
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.12344 asian high opens the path to the 1.12382 gap fill (Friday close)
A slip back below the 1.12108 asian low puts the 38.2% retrace of the london rally (~1.1214) and rising support in play
Failure to hold the 1.12049 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.11862 london low
Unscheduled French political or fiscal headlines could materially shift this read during NY hours
11:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 58 · price 1.12253
HH/HL from the 1.1186 London low, back inside Asian range.
The weekend gap down from Friday's 1.1238 close was mostly filled in Asia. London open then swept below 1.1200 to a 1.1186 London low on French unrest headlines, and the bounce has retraced about 80% of that London drop. A higher low at 1.1205 carried price above the 1.1217 prior high to 1.1225 in late London, with the 1.1234 Asian high overhead and RSI(14) at 58.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1205, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1245
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1234 Asian high and the 1.1238 Friday close completes the gap fill and exposes the 1.1245 intraday cap.
A pullback that holds the 1.1217 prior high as a retest keeps the HH/HL chain intact into NY open.
A break of the 1.1205 higher low and the trendline negates the recovery and puts the 1.1186 London low back in play.
No tier-1 data before Tuesday's ZEW; unscheduled French political and fiscal headlines are the main risk to this read.
Higher lows off the London low, pressing the rebound high back inside the Asian range.
EUR gapped about 48 pips lower at the weekly open on French protest and spread stress, filled most of it in Asia, then the London open broke the 1.1211 Asian range floor. The move stopped at the 1.1186 London low, just above the 1.1180 gap low, and has since built higher lows to 1.1205. Price is now pressing the 1.1220 rebound high, back inside the Asian range, with RSI(14) at 55 and price hovering at EMA50.
Support: 1.12049, 1.11862, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 rebound high opens the path to the 1.1234 Asian high; the 1.1245 cap sits beyond
Failure to hold the 1.1205 higher low breaks the rebound trendline and exposes the 1.1186 London low and the 1.1180 gap low
Unscheduled French political and OAT-Bund spread headlines could materially shift this read
NY open and US AI-equity direction are the main USD swing factors into the afternoon; ZEW is due Tue 09:00 UTC
11:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 48 · price 1.12103
London broke below the Asian range, then rebounded into a tight 1.1205–1.1217 box.
EUR gapped about 48 pips lower at the weekly open on French unrest and recovered half of it inside the first hour. London then broke the Asian range and swept down to the 1.1186 london low. The rebound stalled at the 61.8% fib near the 1.1217 range top, and price is now boxed above the 1.1205 range low with RSI(14) flat near 48, mid-London with no setup in play.
Support: 1.1205, 1.1186, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1217, 1.1234, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1217 range top reopens the 1.1234 asian high and the 1.1238 gap fill to Friday's close
Failure to hold the 1.1205 range low exposes the 1.1186 london low and the 1.1180 gap low
No scheduled releases in the next 8h; French political headlines around the NY open could break the range
Asian range broken lower, lower highs compressing above 1.1205.
London open broke the 1.1222 asian low and spiked to the 1.1186 london low, just above the 1.1180 gap low, as French unrest weighed on EUR. Buyers stepped in there. The rebound stalled at the 1.1217 rebound cap near the 61.8% fib, and mid-London price is compressing on lower highs above the 1.1205 range floor, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1205, 1.1186, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1217, 1.1222, 1.1234
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1205 range floor exposes the 1.1186 london low and 1.1180 gap low
Close above the 1.1217 rebound cap breaks the lower-highs line; reclaiming the 1.1222 asian low puts the 1.1234 asian high back in play
No scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h; French political headlines and US AI-equity moves into the NY open are the main risk
10:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.12059
London broke below the Asian range; rebound capped at the old range low.
Sunday opened on a ~48-pip bearish gap below the friday close at 1.1238. The gap was largely filled before Asia settled into a 1.1217–1.1234 range. London open broke the asian low and flushed to the 1.1186 london low on French fiscal stress, and the rebound stalled at 1.1217, near the 61.8% retracement, with price now pressing the 1.1206 intraday low.
Support: 1.1206, 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1217, 1.1234, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1206 intraday low and the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1186 london low
Recovery back above the 1.1217 asian low breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1234 asian high
French political or OAT-spread headlines are the dominant unscheduled risk into the NY session
Back below asian low, rebound capped at 61.8% fib.
Monday opened on a ~48-pip gap lower to the 1.1180 gap low on French unrest. The gap only partly filled before London broke the Asian low at 1.1211 and printed a london low at 1.1186. The rebound found a rebound cap at 1.1217 twice, at the 61.8% fib of the Asian high-to-London low drop, extending the lower highs line; mid-London, price sits back below the Asian low with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1217, 1.1234
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1217 rebound cap breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.1234 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1186 london low exposes the 1.1180 gap low
French political headlines and ECB speaker Elderson today are the main unscheduled risk; no scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h
10:01 UTC
Intraday down, recovering from London low · RSI 47 · price 1.12134
Weekend gap down, Asian range broken lower at London open, retrace stalling below 61.8%.
Monday opened on a gap down from the 1.1238 friday close as French unrest hit EUR. Asia partly filled it and ranged up to the 1.1234 asian high. London open broke the Asian low to a 1.1186 london low before demand returned, and price is now mid-London, capped at the 1.1217 rebound high near the 61.8% retrace with the 1.1208 swing low beneath.
Support: 1.12078, 1.11862, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12173, 1.12344, 1.12382
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1217 rebound high reopens the 1.1234 asian high
Failure at the 1.1208 swing low exposes the 1.1186 london low and 1.1180 gap low
1.1238 friday close marks the unfilled gap
French political headlines and OAT-Bund spread moves are the main unscheduled risk this session
London broke below the Asian range; lower highs under the asian low.
French OAT stress gapped EURUSD lower at the open, and Asia left the gap fill at 1.1238 short by a few pips. The London open broke the Asian range (1.1217–1.1234) and hit 1.1186. The rebound retraced ~73% of the London drop but met rejection at the asian low, and mid-London price is printing lower highs near 1.1211 with RSI(14) neutral around 45.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1217, 1.1234, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.1217 puts price back inside the Asian range and undoes the break
Failure to hold the london low at 1.1186 confirms a lower-low and exposes the sunday low near 1.1180
A push through the asian high at 1.1234 into the 1.1238 gap fill would neutralise the weekend gap
Unscheduled French political or OAT-spread headlines could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, London false break below 1.1200 reclaimed, lower high forming.
Monday opened with a ~48-pip gap lower on French fiscal stress. The gap was partly filled in Asia, then London broke below the Asian range and the 1.1204 prior low, spiking to a london low of 1.1186 before reclaiming 1.1200. The rebound retraced ~73% of the London drop and stalled at a lower high of 1.1217. RSI(14) sits near 42 with price below both EMAs, mid-London session.
Support: 1.12042, 1.11862, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12167, 1.12281, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1217 lower high and the lower-highs trendline opens the 1.1228 london high and the 1.1234 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1204 prior low re-exposes the 1.1186 london low and the 1.1180 open low
French political headlines and the OAT-Bund spread are the main unscheduled risk; no scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h
09:01 UTC
Intraday down, rebounding off London low · RSI 45 · price 1.12144
London open sold below the Asian range, then reclaimed the Asian low.
London open dropped 42 pips from the london high at 1.1228 to 1.1186, cutting through the asian low at 1.1211 as French fiscal stress weighed on EUR. The sell-off stopped above the sunday low at 1.1180, and price has since rebounded past the 61.8% fib to reclaim 1.1211. EMA20 sits just overhead near 1.1216 and RSI(14) is around 45, two hours into the London session.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1186, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1228, 1.1234, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian low at 1.1211 reopens the london low at 1.1186
Acceptance above the 78.6% fib and EMA20 near 1.1219 puts the london high at 1.1228 and the asian high at 1.1234 back in focus
Weekend gap to the friday close at 1.1238 remains unfilled; the descending line from the asian high is capping rallies
Break below the sunday low at 1.1180 would confirm a lower-low
No scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h; French fiscal headlines are the main unscheduled risk to this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, rebounding off London low · RSI 41 · price 1.12068
Asian range broken lower at London open, sharp rejection from 1.1186.
Monday opened with a ~48-pip gap lower that Asia mostly retraced. French fiscal stress then drove London open through the 1.1211 Asian low to a 1.1186 London low, followed by a sharp rejection back above the 1.1200 round number. Price now sits under the Asian low, which lines up with the 50% retrace of the London leg; RSI(14) is recovering toward 41.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.12108, 1.12281, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1211 Asian low reopens the 1.1228 London high and 1.1234 Asian high, where the lower highs line from the Asian high also sits
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number puts the 1.1186 London low back in play, and a break there confirms a lower-low
French OAT/Bund headlines are the main unscheduled risk this session, with no scheduled EUR or USD data in the next 8h
08:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bounce off london low · RSI 37 · price 1.12033
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs since 04:45 UTC; weekend gap almost filled then rejected.
Monday's gap down from Friday's 1.1238 close was nearly filled in Asia, but the asian high at 1.1234 capped and London broke the asian low near 1.1211 on French spread stress, printing a london low of 1.1186. The bounce has stalled at the 38.2% fib near 1.1205, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) around 37.
Support: 1.11862, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12108, 1.12344, 1.12382
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the asian low at 1.1211 would put price back inside the Asian range and weaken the range-break read
A break of the london low at 1.1186 exposes the monday low at 1.1180, the intraday floor flagged in the market context
Rejection at the 38.2% fib near 1.1205 keeps the London lower-high sequence intact
Asian high 1.1234 and gap fill at 1.1238 mark the upper boundary if the bounce extends
French spread headlines (OAT-Bund >150bp) and ECB's Elderson today could materially shift this read
Asian range broken to the downside at London open; lower highs since the Asia high.
London open broke the Asian range low at 1.1211 and extended to a 1.1186 london low, putting price just above the Sunday gap low at 1.1180. French fiscal stress (OAT-Bund spread >150bp) is driving EUR weakness. Price is pinned below lower highs off the 1.1234 Asia high and the 1.1228 London high, with RSI(14) near 27 after a 22-pip 15-minute bar.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1180, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1228, 1.1234
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1180 gap low exposes the 1.1160 range floor
Reclaim of 1.1211 (Asia low, 61.8% of the London leg fib) neutralises the range break
Acceptance back above the 1.1228 London high breaks the Asia lower-highs line and the 1.1234 Asia high
Fresh French political or spread headlines and today's ECB Elderson remarks could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Intraday down, testing below the Asian range · RSI 33 · price 1.12101
London open broke the Asian low; lower highs since 1.1234.
EUR opened the week with a gap down to the 1.1180 gap low on French unrest and wider OAT-Bund spreads. The Asian session partly filled the gap, with an Asian high at 1.1234. The first hour of London broke the 1.1211 Asian low and set a London low at 1.1204. Price is pinned just under the old Asian low, highs have been lower since 1.1234, and RSI(14) sits near 32.
Support: 1.12042, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12108, 1.12281, 1.12344
What it said to watch
A sustained hold below the 1.1211 Asian low keeps the range break intact; a reclaim back inside reads as a false break
Failure of the 1.1204 London low exposes the 1.1180 gap low from the weekly open
A close above the 1.1228 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.1234 Asian high back in play
French political headlines or a push in the OAT-Bund spread beyond 150bp are the main unscheduled risk to this read
07:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London range break · RSI 34 · price 1.12113
Asian range 1.1211–1.1234 broken lower at London open; lower high at 1.1227.
The weekend gap left the Friday close at 1.1238 unfilled, and the Asian high at 1.1234 capped the bounce twice. London opened with a break below the Asian range low near 1.1211, printing a london low at 1.1204 as French spread stress kept EUR heavy. The 1.1227 swing high marks a lower high, RSI(14) sits near 34 and is not yet oversold, and the gap low at 1.1180 is the next reference below.
Support: 1.12042, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12273, 1.12344
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1227 swing high negates the lower-high sequence and returns price to the Asian range
Failure to hold the london low at 1.1204 exposes the gap low at 1.1180
Any widening of OAT-Bund beyond 150bp or 10Y OAT above 4.85% could extend the London leg
Rejection at the 0.5–0.618 fib zone (1.1219–1.1223) would keep the lower-highs line intact
07:31 UTC
Intraday lower highs since the Asian high · RSI 39 · price 1.12172
Asian range broken lower at London open, unfilled weekend gap overhead.
Monday opened with a gap lower to the 1.1180 gap low on French spread stress, then recovered most of it as USD haven gains faded. The 1.1221–1.1234 Asian range has since broken lower. The first hour of London printed a London low at 1.1214, just above the 38.2% fib and the 1.1211 post-gap low. Price trades under both EMAs with RSI near 39, and the gap to the 1.1238 Fri close remains unfilled.
Support: 1.12141, 1.12108, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12281, 1.12344, 1.12382
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1211–1.1214 post-gap low / London low cluster exposes the 50% fib near 1.1207, then the 1.1180 gap low
M15 close back above the 1.1228 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline and returns price to the Asian range
Clearance of the 1.1234 Asian high puts the 1.1238 Fri close gap fill in play
Fresh OAT-Bund spread headlines (>150bp) or a US AI-equity sell-off could shift this read intraday
07:16 UTC
Range after weekend gap recovery · RSI 47 · price 1.12253
Asian range 1.1211–1.1234, Friday-close gap unfilled.
French turmoil drove a weekend gap down to 1.1180. The USD then gave back its haven gains, and most of the drop was reclaimed in the gap recovery fib. Since then price has held a 1.1211–1.1234 Asian range, and the pre-London low at 1.1217 was bought back into London open. Price sits mid-range just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 47, while Friday's 1.1238 close remains the unfilled gap fill.
Support: 1.12173, 1.12108
Resistance: 1.12344, 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 Asian high exposes the 1.1238 gap fill, then the 1.1269 Friday high
Failure to hold the 1.1217 pre-London low opens the 1.1211 Asian low and a deeper retrace of the gap recovery fib
French OAT-Bund spread headlines (150bp mark) during London session could materially shift this read
ZEW sentiment Tue 09:00 UTC is the next scheduled EUR risk
07:01 UTC
Flat to soft, testing range floor · RSI 43 · price 1.12216
Asian range 1.1221–1.1234 after weekend gap; early Europe probing below range low.
Monday opened with a 48-pip gap down to the 1.1180 gap low as weekend French unrest pushed the OAT/Bund spread past 150bp. The gap mostly filled within the hour as the early USD haven bid faded on AI-investment worries, and price then held a tight Asian range capped by the 1.1234 Asian high. Early Europe dipped below the range floor to a 1.1217 session low and has recovered to 1.1222, which is the 23.6% fib of the gap-low rebound, with RSI(14) near 43 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 1.12173, 1.12108, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12344, 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
Holding back above 1.1221 would turn the dip to the 1.1217 session low into a false break of the Asian range
M15 close below 1.1217 exposes the 1.1211 post-gap low and the 38.2% fib of the gap-low rebound near 1.1214
Close above the 1.1234 Asian high puts the 1.1238 Fri close (gap top) in play, then Friday's 1.1269 prior high
Unscheduled French political or OAT spread headlines during London hours could break the range either way; a deeper slide brings the 1.1180 gap low back into view
06:46 UTC
Asia rebound fading, short-term momentum turning down · RSI 40 · price 1.1219
Early-Europe break below the Asian range low; weekend gap to Friday's close still unfilled.
French unrest drove a weekend gap down to the 1.1180 gap low, and Asia recovered most of it, stalling at the 1.1234 Asian high short of the 1.1238 Friday close. Early European trade has now slipped below the 1.1222 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 40 and price under both EMAs. The 1.1211 swing low and the 38.2% fib of the Asian rally sit just below, and the Asia trendline has given way.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1234, 1.1238
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1211 swing low and the 38.2% fib exposes the 1.1180 gap low, the digest's intraday floor
An M15 close back above the 1.1222 Asian low negates the range break and restores the Asian range
The 1.1234 Asian high and 1.1238 Friday close cap any gap fill
London open in about 30 minutes; French OAT/Bund spread headlines beyond 150bp could extend the move
06:16 UTC
Flat after gap recovery, drifting to range floor · RSI 47 · price 1.12249
Tight Asian range 1.1222–1.1234 above a filled-back weekend gap.
Monday gapped ~48 pips lower to the 1.1180 gap low on French fiscal stress. Asia then recovered most of it as the USD safe-haven bid faded, leaving the 1.1238 friday close still unfilled. Price has since compressed inside a 1.1222–1.1234 Asian range and is pressing the swing low at London open, about 18% back into the gap recovery, with RSI(14) near 47 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1211, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1222 swing low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.1211 pullback low
Close above the 1.1234 asia high reopens the gap fill toward the 1.1238 friday close, then the 1.1269 friday high
Elderson (06:00 UTC) and French OAT-Bund spread headlines could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Recovering from weekend gap, flat in Asia · RSI 54 · price 1.12295
Tight Asian range 1.1222–1.1234 with higher lows.
Monday opened with a ~48-pip gap lower to 1.1180 on French spread stress. Price rebounded quickly off the gap low and has since held a tight Asia range of 1.1222–1.1234, with the gap fill at Friday's 1.1238 close still untested just above the Asian high. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR(14) sits under 4 pips into the London open.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1211, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
A London open break of the 1.1222 asian low or the 1.1234 asian high sets the session's first directional leg
A close above the 1.1238 gap fill opens the path to the Friday high near 1.1269
Loss of the asian low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 1.1211 post-gap low, with the 1.1180 gap low below
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and French OAT-Bund spread headlines could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Recovering from weekend gap, flat in late Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.12291
Tight Asian range on rising lows below unfilled gap.
The weekend gap down to the 1.1180 gap low on French-spread stress was bought back quickly as the USD's safe-haven bid faded. Asia has since compressed into a 1.1222–1.1234 range on rising lows, with Friday's 1.1238 close marking the gap fill overhead. RSI(14) is neutral near 48 into London open.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1211, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 asian high exposes the 1.1238 gap fill, then the 1.1269 friday high
Break of the rising lows and the 1.1222 asian low reopens the 1.1211 swing low
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and French OAT-Bund spread headlines could break the Asian range
05:31 UTC
Recovering from Sunday gap down, compressing below Asian high · RSI 55 · price 1.12311
Higher lows under flat 1.1234 cap; Friday-close gap not yet filled.
The Sunday open gapped down to 1.1180 on French fiscal stress and was bought back within the first hour as the USD gave up its safe-haven bid on AI-investment worries. The Friday-close gap fill at 1.1238 is still open. Late in the Asia session price is pressing the 1.1234 Asian high on a chain of higher lows, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 1.12275, 1.12221, 1.12108
Resistance: 1.12344, 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 asian high opens the 1.1238 gap fill, then the 1.1269 friday high
Break of the 1.1227 higher low and the rising lows line returns focus to the 1.1222 asian low
Loss of the 1.1211 sunday low reopens the gap-down area toward 1.1180
Elderson at 06:00 UTC and French OAT-Bund spread headlines could shift this read into the London open
05:16 UTC
Recovering from weekend gap, compressing late Asia · RSI 58 · price 1.12314
Higher lows since 1.1211, flat tops capped at 1.1234.
The ~48-pip weekend gap down from Friday's 1.1238 close is mostly retraced, with the 1.1238 gap fill still open. The USD gave back its safe-haven open on AI-investment worries, and late Asia is compressing under the 1.1234 Asian high on a chain of higher lows off the 1.1211 swing low, with the 1.1227 higher low the latest. RSI(14) near 58 is mid-range and ATR is about 4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.12272, 1.12217, 1.12108
Resistance: 1.12344, 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 Asian high opens the 1.1238 gap fill, then Friday's high at 1.1269
A break of the rising trendline and the 1.1227 higher low puts the 1.1222 Asian low and the 1.1211 swing low back in focus
Elderson at 06:00 UTC, the London open and French OAT-Bund spread headlines could materially shift this read
The weekly open gapped about 48 pips lower to the 1.1180 gap low on French OAT/Bund spread stress, but Asia has recovered most of it from the 1.1211 swing low. Late Asian session, price is pressing the 1.1234 session high above a 1.1222–1.1234 range, with rising lows underneath and the 1.1238 Friday close still unfilled.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1211, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1238 fri close completes the gap fill and opens the path to the 1.1269 fri high
Break of the rising lows and the 1.1222 range low shifts focus back to the 1.1211 swing low
Loss of 1.1211 swing low reopens the 1.1180 gap low
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and the London open, plus French spread headlines, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain in Asia, compressing under the Asian high.
Monday opened with a ~48-pip gap down to the 1.1180 gap low on French spread stress. Asia has since built higher lows at the 1.1211 swing low and the 1.1222 higher low as the USD haven bid faded. Price is now consolidating just under the 1.1234 Asian high, short of the 1.1238 gap fill to Friday's close, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 into London open.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1211, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1238 completes the gap fill and puts the 1.1269 Friday high in view
Break of the 1.1222 higher low and the higher-lows trendline reopens the 1.1211 swing low
ECB Elderson at 06:00 UTC and French OAT/Bund spread headlines around London open could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Recovering from weekend gap, flat late Asia · RSI 53 · price 1.12283
Higher lows since Monday open, compressing below session high.
Monday opened with a ~48-pip gap down to a 1.1180 gap low on French fiscal stress. The USD haven bid then faded and Asia's gap recovery reached a 1.1234 session high, short of the 1.1238 gap fill at Friday's close. Late Asia is compressing in a 1.1222–1.1234 range above a line of higher lows, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR(14) around 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1211, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 session high opens the 1.1238 gap fill, then the 1.1269 prior high
Break below the 1.1222 range low and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.1211 swing low; failure there puts the 1.1180 gap low back in view
ECB Elderson at 06:00 UTC and the London open could materially shift this read
French OAT/Bund spread headlines beyond 150bp are the main catalyst for a range break
04:16 UTC
Recovering off Monday gap, compressing late Asia · RSI 56 · price 1.12299
Higher lows from 1.1211, tight 1.1222–1.1234 range below gap fill.
Monday opened with a ~48-pip gap down to 1.1180 on French fiscal stress. The haven USD bid then faded and the gap is nearly filled. Late Asia has compressed into 1.1222–1.1234, with higher lows along rising support off the 1.1211 post-gap low. The session high at 1.1234 and the gap fill at Friday's 1.1238 close are capping the drift ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1211
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1238 gap fill opens Friday's prior high at 1.1269
Loss of rising support and the 1.1222 asian lows returns focus to the 1.1211 post-gap low
ECB Elderson at 06:00 UTC and French OAT/Bund spread headlines into London open could materially shift this read
Higher lows in Asia, tight 1.1222–1.1234 band below gap fill.
The Monday open gapped about 48 pips lower to a 1.1180 gap low on French spread stress. Asia bought most of it back as the haven USD bid faded, and the gap rally has since compressed into rising lows between the 1.1222 recent low and the 1.1234 session high. The 1.1238 Friday close is still unfilled late in the Asian session, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1211, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1238 friday close completes the gap fill and opens the 1.1269 friday high
Break of the rising lows and the 1.1222 recent low ends the Asian grind; below the 1.1211 swing low the gap low at 1.1180 comes back into view
ECB Elderson at 06:00 UTC and French OAT/Bund spread headlines into London open could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.1222–1.1234 under unfilled weekend gap, higher lows intact.
Monday opened with a ~48-pip gap down to the 1.1180 monday low as the French OAT/Bund spread widened past 150bps. The USD haven bid faded and Asia retraced most of the drop. Late Asia is now compressing in a 1.1222–1.1234 range, sitting on EMA50 and just shy of the 1.1238 gap fill, with a higher low at 1.1211.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1211, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 asian high and 1.1238 gap fill opens the path to the 1.1269 friday high
Break of the 1.1222 range low, then the 1.1211 higher low, invalidates the higher-lows recovery and exposes the 1.1180 monday low
London open and ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC can expand the narrow Asian range
Fresh widening in the French OAT/Bund spread beyond 150bps could reverse the gap recovery
03:31 UTC
Flat after gap-down recovery · RSI 49 · price 1.12242
Asia compressing 1.1222–1.1234 beneath unfilled weekend gap.
EUR gapped about 48 pips lower at the open as the French OAT/Bund spread widened past 150bps. A sharp Asia-session rebound from the 1.1180 gap low and a higher pullback low at 1.1211 lifted price back into a 1.1222–1.1234 band, where it now sits just above the asia shelf. The session high at 1.1234 is capping, leaving the gap fill at Friday's 1.1238 close untouched.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1211, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1238 completes the gap fill and puts the 1.1269 friday high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.1222 asia shelf exposes the 1.1211 pullback low and the 61.8% retracement of the Asia rebound
London open typically breaks the Asian range; direction of that break defines the session read
French OAT/Bund spread headlines and ECB Elderson at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Recovering from weekend gap, now flat · RSI 52 · price 1.12253
Asian-session range 1.1222–1.1234 with rising lows, below Friday close.
Monday opened with a ~48-pip gap lower to 1.1180 as the French OAT/Bund spread pushed past 150bps, but most of it was retraced in the first hour. Asia has since compressed into a 1.1222 range low to 1.1234 session high band, with rising lows off the 1.1211 post-gap low and the 1.1238 gap fill still open overhead. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and price sits on the EMA50.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1211, 1.1201
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 session high and the 1.1238 gap fill opens the path toward the 1.1269 friday high
Loss of the 1.1222 range low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 1.1211 post-gap low, then the 61.8% fib of the gap recovery near 1.1201
ECB Elderson at 06:00 UTC and the London open could break the Asian range; further OAT/Bund spread widening could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Recovering from Monday gap-down, flat in late Asia · RSI 54 · price 1.12248
Tight 1.1222–1.1234 range under the Asian high, gap to Friday's close unfilled.
EURUSD gapped about 48 pips lower at the weekly open as French OAT/Bund spread stress hit EUR, set an Asian low at 1.1180, then recovered most of the drop. Since 00:00 UTC price has compressed between the 1.1222 swing low and the 1.1234 Asian high on rising lows, with the gap fill at Friday's 1.1238 close still open.
Support: 1.12216, 1.12108, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12339, 1.12382, 1.12409
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 Asian high puts the 1.1238 gap fill and the 1.1241 prior high in play
Break of the rising lows line and the 1.1222 swing low exposes the 1.1211 pullback low
Loss of 1.1211 reopens the move back toward the 1.1180 Asian low
London open could resolve the late-Asia compression
ECB Elderson at 06:00 UTC and French spread headlines could materially shift this read
Higher lows through Asia, session high capping at 1.1234.
Monday opened with a ~48-pip gap down to 1.1180 on French spread stress. A 32-pip bounce has nearly filled it, with Asia session higher lows building toward the 1.1234 session high. Price is easing back toward the 1.1224 higher low, sitting just above EMA20 and just under EMA50, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1211
Resistance: 1.12339, 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1238 gap fill completes the weekend gap and puts the 1.1269 Friday high back in view
Break of the 1.1224 higher low exposes the 1.1211 swing low and the 38.2% gap rally fib near 1.1213
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and the London open; a renewed widening in the OAT/Bund spread could unwind the gap rally
02:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off Monday gap · RSI 56 · price 1.12302
HH/HL chain through Asia, capped just below Friday close.
Monday opened with a ~48-pip gap lower to the 1.1180 gap low as French spread stress hit EUR. The Asia session has since retraced most of the move. The gap rebound has built higher lows along a rising trendline off the 1.1211 Asian low, with a session high at 1.1234 just shy of the 1.1238 gap fill at Friday's close. RSI(14) is a neutral 56 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1211, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1238 completes the gap fill and exposes the 1.1269 Friday high
Break of the 1.1222 higher low and the rising trendline undercuts the rebound, with the 1.1211 Asian low next
Failure back under 1.1211 reopens the 1.1180 gap low
ECB Elderson at 06:00 UTC and French OAT/Bund spread headlines into London open could shift this read
Rising lows capped under the Asia high; gap mostly filled.
Asia session opened with a 48-pip weekend gap down to the 1.1180 Monday low on French OAT/Bund spread stress and Hormuz headlines, then rebounded to fill most of it. Price is now compressing beneath the 1.1231 Asia high on a rising-lows sequence (swing low 1.1211, higher low 1.1222). RSI(14) is neutral near 57 and the gap fill at 1.1238 is still open.
Support: 1.12216, 1.12108, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12313, 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 Asia high exposes the 1.1238 gap fill, then the 1.1269 Friday high
Break below the 1.1222 higher low ends the rising-lows sequence; the 1.1211 swing low sits on the 38.2% gap rebound fib
Failure at 1.1211 reopens the 1.1180 Monday low
ECB Elderson at 06:00 UTC, the London open and French spread headlines could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Rebound after gap down, momentum flattening · RSI 53 · price 1.12252
Higher lows inside 1.1211–1.1231 Asian range, gap unfilled.
Monday's Asia session opened with a roughly 50-pip gap down to the 1.1180 gap low as the French OAT/Bund spread pushed past 150bps. The gap rebound stalled at the 1.1231 Asian high, short of Friday's 1.1238 close. Price is compressing around 1.1225 above rising lows from the 1.1211 higher low, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.12108, 1.1200, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12313, 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 Asian high and 1.1238 Friday close fills the gap and exposes the 1.1269 Friday high
Failure to hold the 1.1211 higher low breaks the rising lows and reopens the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1180 gap low
Remarks from ECB's Lane and Elderson, plus French spread headlines ahead of the London open, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday open, capped by Asia high 1.1231.
Monday's open gapped roughly 48 pips below the 1.1238 friday close to a 1.1180 gap low as French spread and Hormuz headlines hit. The gap has since mostly retraced on rising lows from the 1.1211 pullback low to a 1.1222 higher low, with the 1.1231 Asia high capping during Asia session.
Support: 1.12216, 1.12108, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12313, 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 asia high opens the unfilled friday close at 1.1238
Loss of the 1.1222 higher low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.1211 pullback low
1.1269 friday high is the next reference only if the gap fill completes
ECB Lane now and Elderson at 06:00 UTC, plus French OAT/Bund headlines, could materially shift this read before London open
A break back below the 1.1211 pullback low reopens the gap low at 1.1180
Higher low at 1.1211, tight 1.1222–1.1231 range below the gap fill.
Asia opened with a ~48-pip gap down to the 1.1180 gap low as the French OAT/Bund spread widened past 150bps. The first hour after the open recovered most of it, and the session high at 1.1231 sits just shy of the 1.1238 gap fill. The pullback low at 1.1211 held at the 38.2% fib, a higher low followed at 1.1222, and price is now compressing inside 1.1222–1.1231 with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.12216, 1.12108, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12313, 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 1.1238 completes the gap fill and puts the 1.1269 Friday high back in view
A break below the higher low at 1.1222 and the pullback low at 1.1211 reopens the 1.1180 gap low
ECB's Lane at 01:30 UTC and Elderson at 06:00 UTC, plus French spread headlines, could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Rebound from gap-down low, stalling below session high · RSI 51 · price 1.12218
Higher low at 1.1211 under a double cap at 1.1231; weekend gap unfilled.
Monday's Asia session opened about 48 pips below Friday's 1.1238 close as the French-German spread widened past 150bps. Price bought from the 1.1180 session low but met rejection twice at the 1.1231 session high, leaving the gap fill unfinished. It is now ranging above the 1.1211 higher low on the rising support line, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1200, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1238
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1231 session high puts the 1.1238 gap fill in play
Failure to hold the 1.1211 higher low breaks the rising support and exposes the 1.1200 round number
Loss of 1.1200 reopens the 1.1180 session low
ECB Lane at 01:30 UTC and Elderson at 06:00 UTC could shift this read, as could French spread headlines
00:31 UTC
Recovering from weekend gap-down, higher low in place · RSI 58 · price 1.12296
Gap low 1.1180, higher low 1.1211, retesting 1.1230-31 spike high.
Sunday's open gapped about 48 pips below Friday's 1.1238 close on French spread stress and Hormuz headlines, printing a 1.1180 gap low before a sharp recovery. Early Asia has formed a higher low at 1.1211 and is retesting the 1.1230-31 spike high. Price sits above the ema20 near 1.1221, the gap fill at 1.1238 is overhead and RSI(14) is near 58.
Support: 1.1221, 1.1211, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1238, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1238 gap fill opens the path to the 1.1269 friday high
Loss of the ema20 and the 1.1211 higher low reopens the 1.1180 gap low
Rejection at the 1.1231 spike high would turn the recovery into an Asian range
ECB's Sleijpen (01:20Z) and Lane (01:30Z) speak within the hour; French political headlines are the unscheduled risk
00:16 UTC
Gap-down recovery, rebounding into session high · RSI 57 · price 1.12287
Monday gap lower; 1.1180 low swept, then a higher low at 1.1211 inside the Asian range.
Monday opened with a 48-pip gap lower on French political stress and swept to the 1.1180 gap low. A sharp early-Asia rebound followed, and the pullback held a higher low at 1.1211, a 38.2% retracement of the gap rebound sitting next to Friday's 1.1212 low. Price is now pressing the 1.1230 session high, holding above the ema20 near 1.1221 and just above EMA50 around 1.1227, with RSI(14) near 57 and the 1.1238 gap fill overhead.
Support: 1.1221, 1.12108, 1.11803
Resistance: 1.12302, 1.12382, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1230 session high puts the 1.1238 gap fill and the 1.1269 friday high in play
Loss of the 1.1211 higher low reopens the 1.1180 gap low
ECB's Sleijpen (01:20Z) and Lane (01:30Z) speak within the next couple of hours and could shift this read; French political headlines remain the unscheduled risk