Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
19:32 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 53 · price 1.14709
Lower lows into 3-month low, base building.
The dominant move this week was the FOMC-driven breakdown that sliced EUR/USD from above 1.1600 down to a 3-month low near 1.1417 on a hawkish Fed hold. Price has since carved out a base and recovered to 1.1488 in thin Juneteenth trade, now sitting back above EMA(20) with RSI cycling back to 53 after a bullish divergence into the low. The 1.1488 session high has capped the bounce twice while EMA(50) near 1.1515 sits above as the next overhead marker.
Support: 1.1457, 1.1417
Resistance: 1.1488, 1.1515
What it said to watch
- H1 close below 1.1417 confirms a fresh lower-low and reopens downside
- Reclaim of 1.1488 then EMA(50) at 1.1515 would extend the recovery
- Eurozone flash PMIs and US S&P Global PMIs Tue could materially shift this read
- Lagarde speeches Mon are a near-term EUR catalyst
19:32 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stabilising off lows · RSI 53 · price 1.14709
Lower highs into a 3-month low, base forming.
EUR/USD was knocked from 1.1619 to a 3-month low at 1.1417 mid-week as the hawkish Fed hold drove the dollar higher; the leg lower printed two sharp NY-session impulses. Price has since carved higher lows back to 1.1471 and is now holding above EMA20, with the 1.1417 low defended and a slight RSI divergence into that base. The 1.1480 day high and 1.1487 swing high cap the recovery so far.
Support: 1.14284, 1.14175
Resistance: 1.14803, 1.14872
What it said to watch
- H1 close back above 1.1487 swing high needed to extend the recovery
- Failure to hold 1.1417 3-mo low confirms a fresh lower-low
- Eurozone flash PMIs and US S&P Global PMIs Tue could reset this read
- Lagarde speeches Mon are a near-term EUR catalyst