Three-month downtrend from the mid-April peak at 1.1849, a clean chain of lower highs and lower lows. The hawkish Fed hold Wednesday accelerated the decline, dragging EUR/USD ~130 pips lower and pressing the three-month low at 1.1411/1.1420; price now trades below both EMAs and capped under the EMA(50) near 1.1620. RSI near 31 is the most stretched reading of the move, signalling the down-leg is extended into the lows.
Support: 1.1411, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1460, 1.1589, 1.1620
What it said to watch
Daily close below 1.1411 confirms a fresh lower low and opens downside
Reclaim of the 1.1460 pivot needed to ease the downside pressure
Eurozone flash PMIs Tue and Lagarde Mon could shift this read
Downtrend accelerated this week after a hawkish Fed hold lifted DXY to a one-year high, dragging EUR/USD out of its May 1.155-1.165 band toward the 3-month low near 1.1411. Price sits well below EMA(50), which is rolling lower, and three straight weekly closes have printed lower lows. RSI is stretched into the mid-30s but not yet at a classic D1 oversold extreme.
Support: 1.1411
Resistance: 1.1460, 1.1588, 1.1600
What it said to watch
D1 close below 1.1411 opens fresh downside
Reclaim of the 1.1460 pivot would ease the breakdown pressure
ECB Lagarde Mon and flash PMIs Tue could materially shift this read