EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 21 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, pressing lows · RSI 34 · price 1.13989
Lower highs, lower lows into range floor.
EUR/USD has trended lower all week, printing a sequence of lower highs and slipping through the 1.1400 handle after a weekend gap down. Price is now grinding on the 1.13962 swing low with RSI(14) pressed near oversold and holding below both EMAs. The move ties to a firmer USD safe-haven bid and consolidation ahead of Thursday's ECB.
Support: 1.13962, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.14273, 1.1440
What it said to watch
Close below 1.1396 confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1360 range floor
Reclaim of 1.1427 needed to break the lower-high sequence
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, at four-day low · RSI 35 · price 1.13989
Lower highs, lower lows.
EURUSD has ground steadily lower since Monday's open, sliding beneath the 1.1400 psych level into the Asia session to print a fresh four-day low at 1.13962. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) around 35 and each bounce this week capped near the descending 1.1420 area; the digest frames this as consolidation into Thursday's ECB hold. Momentum stays soft but late-session ranges have narrowed sharply on thin volume.
Support: 1.13962, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1445
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.13962 exposes the 1.1360 range floor
Reclaim of 1.1420 needed to challenge the week's lower-high sequence
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending to new lows · RSI 35 · price 1.13998
Lower highs, lower lows.
EUR/USD has slid steadily since Monday's ~1.1470 open, with EMA20 capping every bounce and price now pressing a fresh four-day low at 1.1396 into the NY close — the round-number 1.1400 has flipped from support to overhead. The move fits the digest's risk-off/firmer-USD tone as markets wait on Thursday's ECB, and RSI(14) sitting in the low-30s reflects sustained selling without a clean divergence.
Support: 1.1396, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1428, 1.1445
What it said to watch
close back above 1.1428 breaks the lower-high sequence
clean break of 1.1360 range floor opens 1.1210
ECB decision Thu 12:15 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, pressing four-day low.
EUR/USD has ground steadily lower all week, rolling off the 1.1476 high and printing a fresh four-day low at 1.1396 through the NY session as a firmer dollar and Iran-strike risk-off capped rallies. Price sits below both EMA20 (~1.1414) and EMA50, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and no divergence — sellers still in control. The weekend gap-down held the downside bias and pullbacks have not reclaimed the EMA20.
Support: 1.1396, 1.1400, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1414, 1.1428, 1.1449
What it said to watch
Clean break of 1.1396/1.1400 opens the path toward 1.1360 range floor
Reclaim of EMA20 near 1.1414 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
ECB decision Thu 12:15 GMT plus Lagarde presser could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 35 · price 1.13971
Lower highs, lower lows; broke below 1.1400.
EUR/USD has ground lower since Tuesday's rebound stalled near 1.1449, sliding through the 1.1400 psych level into fresh session lows at 1.13969 as a US safe-haven bid weighed. Price sits below EMA20 (~1.1415) with each NY-session pullback capped under the descending swing highs; RSI(14) near 34 reflects the persistent selling but no divergence yet. The 1.1400 handle, prior support, is now acting as the immediate cap.
Support: 1.13969, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1415, 1.14282, 1.14445
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1415 (ema20) would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Sustained break of 1.13969 session low exposes the 1.1360 range low
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC is the week's main catalyst and could reset this read
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 38 · price 1.13971
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday.
EURUSD has ground lower all week, tracing a clean series of lower highs off Monday's 1.1476 top and losing the 1.1400 pivot into the NY session to print a fresh four-day low at 1.1397. Price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) around 37, as reviving US-Iran risk-off and oil-driven hawkish-Fed repricing kept the USD bid despite a strong German/Eurozone ZEW beat that drew no reaction. The 1.1420-1.1445 supply band has capped every bounce this week.
Support: 1.1397, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1445, 1.1465
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1360 confirms the next leg lower toward 1.1210
Reclaim of 1.1420 needed to neutralise the lower-high structure
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC + Lagarde presser is the week's main catalyst and could reset this read
EUR/USD has drifted lower all week from Monday's 1.1476 area, printing lower highs and now pinned at a four-day low near the 1.1400 pivot with price below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The leg down into the NY session accelerated as reviving US-Iran risk-off supported the dollar; RSI(14) sits in the high-30s without a clear divergence. Rallies into the 1.1445 band have been faded repeatedly, keeping the range top at 1.1491 unchallenged.
Support: 1.13983, 1.1400, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14445, 1.14491
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1398 opens 1.1390 then 1.1360
Reclaim of 1.1420 would ease the lower-high sequence
ECB decision Thursday 12:15 UTC is the week's main catalyst and could reset this read
20:01 UTC
Downtrend, grinding into range floor · RSI 38 · price 1.14008
Lower highs pressing the 1.1400 pivot.
EURUSD has bled lower since Monday's open, sliding from the 1.1470s to a four-day low at 1.1398 with a fresh USD safe-haven bid from US-Iran headlines capping every bounce. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) mired in the high-30s; the 1.1430-1.1445 supply band capped rallies through the NY session yesterday. The 1.1400 pivot is now the immediate battleground into Thursday's ECB.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13983, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1415, 1.1444, 1.1465
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1400 exposes 1.1390 then 1.1360
Reclaim of 1.1445 needed to neutralise the lower-high sequence
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC is the week's main catalyst
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, testing range floor · RSI 37 · price 1.14025
Lower highs, four-day low at 1.1398.
EUR/USD has drifted lower through the week from Monday's gap-down open, printing a fresh four-day low at 1.1398 into the NY session with price pinned below EMA(20) and EMA(50). The 1.1400 handle is being tested as the range floor after a shallow bounce to 1.1427 was capped along the week's descending lower-highs. Traders are sidelined ahead of Thursday's ECB decision, with a strong German ZEW beat drawing no FX reaction.
Support: 1.1398, 1.1400, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1417, 1.1427, 1.1449
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.1398 confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.1360
Reclaim of 1.1417 prior high needed to challenge the lower-high sequence
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC is the week's main catalyst and can reset this read
19:01 UTC
Downtrend into four-day low · RSI 37 · price 1.14025
Lower highs, lower lows pressing 1.1400.
EUR/USD has ground lower through the NY session, printing a fresh four-day low at 1.1398 as reviving US-Iran risk-off underpinned the dollar and traders sat sidelined ahead of Thursday's ECB. Price is stuck below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with each bounce this week capping into the 1.1420-1.1445 band, and RSI(14) hovering in the high-30s reflects the sustained downside pressure. The 1.1400 pivot / four-day low is the key structural line into the close.
Support: 1.1398, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1445
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.1398 exposes the 1.1360 range base
Reclaim of 1.1445 range cap needed to neutralise the lower-highs sequence
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC + Lagarde presser is the week's main catalyst and could reset this read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, grinding at lows · RSI 41 · price 1.14059
Lower highs into four-day low.
EUR/USD is grinding at a four-day low near 1.1406, capped by descending highs since Monday's open as US-Iran haven demand keeps the USD firm. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI in the low 40s, and a strong German/EZ ZEW beat drew no bid as traders sit sidelined into Thursday's ECB. The 1.1400 pivot / 1.1402 four-day low has been tested repeatedly.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1427, 1.1445
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1400 exposes 1.1360 range low
Reclaim of 1.1445 supply band would break the descending highs
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC is the week's main catalyst
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, pinned at range floor · RSI 43 · price 1.14059
Lower highs, four-day low held.
EUR/USD has drifted to a four-day low around 1.1400, sitting below EMA20 and EMA50 as sellers pressed through the NY session with price capped by a series of lower highs. The 1.1360-1.1465 band remains intact and the cap band at 1.1445 has turned back rallies all week, keeping the tone soft ahead of Thursday's ECB. A strong German/Eurozone ZEW beat drew no FX reaction, with the pair range-bound near the 1.1400 pivot.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1418, 1.1445, 1.1465
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.1402 exposes the 1.1360 range floor
Reclaim of the 1.1445 cap band needed to reopen the 1.1465 range top
ECB decision Thursday 12:15 UTC is the week's main catalyst and could reset this read
17:01 UTC
Range with mild downside drift · RSI 41 · price 1.14084
Lower highs pressing the 1.1400 pivot.
EUR/USD has stayed pinned to the 1.1360-1.1465 band all week, with a weekend gap lower and a slide back toward the 1.1400 four-day low into the NY session. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) after two rejections at the 1.1427 prior high, and RSI(14) has cooled to the low 40s. The tape is range-bound with a mild downside lean as traders sit sidelined ahead of Thursday's ECB.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1427, 1.1445
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1400 exposes 1.1390 then 1.1360 range low
Reclaim of 1.1427 prior high needed to challenge the 1.1445 cap band
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC + Lagarde presser is the week's main catalyst and can reset this read
EUR/USD has ground lower since Monday's session, carving a run of lower highs and now pinned at the four-day low around 1.1400 as US-Iran risk-off keeps the USD firm. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, with the recent bounce to 1.1428 rejected into the NY session. RSI(14) sits in the low-40s, softening but not yet oversold.
Support: 1.14023, 1.1400, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1417, 1.14282, 1.1445
What it said to watch
Decisive H1 close below 1.1400 exposes 1.1390 then 1.1360
Reclaiming EMA20 (~1.1417) and 1.1428 challenges the range top
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC is the week's main catalyst for this read
EURUSD gapped down at Monday's open and has bled lower through the NY session toward the 1.1402 four-day low, holding below EMA(20) with RSI(14) sub-45. The 1.1430-1.1445 resistance band has capped every rally this week, and price is now grinding lower highs into the range floor as traders sit on their hands ahead of Thursday's ECB.
Support: 1.14023, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1444
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.14023 exposes the 1.1360 range low
Reclaim of 1.14200 EMA(20) would ease the downside pressure
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC is the week's dominant catalyst
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, near week lows · RSI 42 · price 1.14067
Lower highs and lower lows, testing four-day low.
EURUSD peaked near 1.1482 at Monday's open and has ground lower all week, now pinned at the 1.1400 four-day low with price trading below both EMA20 and EMA50. A weekend gap lower reinforced the drift, and the pair has stalled around 1.1407 after failing to reclaim the 1.1417 EMA20. Range-bound with mild downside bias into Thursday's ECB, with 1.1445 capping every rally attempt.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1390, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1417, 1.1427, 1.1445
What it said to watch
Decisive break of 1.1400 exposes 1.1390 then 1.1360
H1 close back above 1.1417 EMA20 challenges the downtrend read
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC is the week's main catalyst and could reset this structure
EUR/USD has ground lower since Monday's open, printing a four-day low near 1.1402 as US-Iran safe-haven flows and firmer oil kept the dollar bid. Price sits below EMA(20), which has capped every pullback this week, with the 1.1445 band rejecting the mid-week bounce. RSI(14) is subdued in the high-30s, consistent with the sequence of lower highs into the ECB event.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1390, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1416, 1.1445
What it said to watch
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC is a binary that can reshape this read
Break below 1.1390 opens the 1.1360 range base
Reclaim of 1.1445 negates the lower-high structure
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, at week lows · RSI 42 · price 1.14045
Lower highs, lower lows.
EURUSD has ground lower all week from Monday's 1.1482 high, printing a four-day low near 1.1402 as safe-haven USD demand on US-Iran headlines and firmer oil capped every bounce. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) parked in the low-40s; recovery attempts into the 1.1430-1.1445 band were rejected twice this week. The break under the 1.1414 shelf leaves the range floor at 1.1360 as the next reference.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1445
What it said to watch
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC is the dominant near-term driver and can reset this read
H1 close below 1.1402 confirms the lower-low and opens 1.1360
Reclaim of 1.1445 range top would neutralise the downtrend structure
14:02 UTC
Mild downtrend, now consolidating · RSI 44 · price 1.14118
Based at 1.1402, ranging under falling EMA20.
EUR/USD gapped lower into this week's open and slid to 1.1402 before basing, now consolidating in a tight 1.1408–1.1423 band beneath a falling EMA(20) near 1.1416. RSI(14) sits mid-40s with the recovery off 1.1402 stalling under 1.1428, a picture consistent with traders sitting on hands into Thursday's ECB. Firmer USD on safe-haven flows keeps the mild downside lean intact within the weekly range.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1390
Resistance: 1.1416, 1.1423, 1.1445
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1423 range top challenges the lower-highs sequence
Loss of 1.1402 week low opens the 1.1390 range floor
EUR/USD has drifted lower through the week, printing successive lower highs as a firmer USD and Middle East risk-off keep the pair capped into Thursday's ECB. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 and is now consolidating in a tight 1.1410–1.1428 band just above the 1.1402 week low, with RSI(14) recovering off the mid-40s after last session's flush to 1.1402.
Support: 1.14023, 1.1390
Resistance: 1.14282, 1.1445
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1402 confirms a lower low and opens 1.1390/1.1360 range floor
Reclaim of 1.1445 week resistance would invalidate the lower-high sequence
ECB decision Thu 12:15 GMT + press conference is the key vol event for this read
EUR/USD sold off from Monday's 1.1482 high through the week and has based just above 1.1400 since the NY-session drop to 1.14023. Price grinds sideways below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) stuck mid-range, matching the pre-ECB range read. The 1.1428 recovery high and 1.1445 supply zone have capped the bounce attempt.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1428, 1.1445, 1.1465
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1402 four-day low opens the 1.1360 range floor
Reclaim of 1.1445 supply zone needed to challenge the 1.1465 range top
ECB decision Thu could materially shift this range read
13:01 UTC
Downtrend this week, now basing · RSI 46 · price 1.14154
Lower highs off 1.1482, consolidating above 1.1400.
EUR/USD has ground lower since Monday's 1.1482 peak, sliding into a 1.1400 test as a firmer USD and Middle East risk-off capped upside. Price is now basing in a tight 1.1408–1.1425 band, pinned just under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) mid-range around 46. The week low at 1.1402 has held on the retest, keeping the drift-lower structure intact ahead of Thursday's ECB.
Support: 1.1402, 1.14085
Resistance: 1.1428, 1.14445
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1428 breaks the consolidation and challenges the 1.1445 prior high
Failure to hold 1.1400 confirms a fresh lower low and opens the 1.1360 range floor
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC plus Lagarde presser is the key vol event for this read
EUR/USD slid from Monday's 1.1482 high to a 1.1402 low into midweek as a safe-haven USD bid off Middle East escalation and higher oil/yields dominated the tape. Price has since based above 1.1402 and is grinding back toward EMA(20), with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-50s but still capped below the 1.1445 prior high. Structure remains a series of lower highs while 1.1428 holds.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1408
Resistance: 1.1428, 1.1445, 1.1482
What it said to watch
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC + Lagarde presser could break the 1.1360-1.1465 range
Close below 1.1402 confirms a lower low, opens 1.1390
Reclaim of 1.1445 needed to negate the lower-high sequence
The slide to 1.1402 came through Monday's NY session on the safe-haven USD bid from Middle East escalation, and price has since carved higher-lows back toward 1.1428, hugging the H1 EMA(20). RSI(14) is cycling around the 50 mark as the sub-1.1430 grind holds. The broader 1.1360-1.1465 range remains intact into Thursday's ECB.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1390, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1428, 1.1445, 1.1465
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1428 opens the path toward the 1.1445 prior high and 1.1465 range top
Failure to hold 1.1402 confirms a lower-low back toward the 1.1390 ecb pivot
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC + Lagarde presser could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Downtrend easing, basing · RSI 53 · price 1.14198
Higher lows off week low.
EURUSD drifted lower through the week from 1.1480 to a 1.1402 base, pressured by a firmer USD on Middle East risk-off while a strong ZEW beat failed to lift the pair. Price has since clawed back above EMA(20) with RSI(14) recovering off the low to ~53, carving a run of higher lows since Monday's decline. Resistance at 1.1445 capped mid-week attempts; consolidation is holding into Thursday's ECB.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1385
Resistance: 1.1445, 1.1465
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1402 week low opens the 1.1385 range floor toward 1.1360
Reclaim of 1.1445 pivot needed to challenge the 1.1465 range top
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC and Lagarde's tone could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Downtrend easing into consolidation · RSI 48 · price 1.14198
Lower highs since Monday, rising lows off week low.
EURUSD slid from the 1.1449 area into the 1.14023 week low through Monday's NY session as a firmer USD on Middle East risk-off capped rallies, then based and clawed back to 1.1420. Price is coiling between rising lows and a descending series of lower highs, sitting just above EMA(20) but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) mid-range. This is textbook pre-ECB drift ahead of Thursday's hold.
Support: 1.14023, 1.1390
Resistance: 1.14282, 1.14445
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.14282 day high, then 1.14445 pivot, breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.14023 week low reopens 1.1390 support
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC and PMIs Fri could materially shift this range read
Weekend gap down, base built at 1.1402, grinding higher.
A weekend gap opened lower and price slid to a weekly low at 1.14023 through the Asia-London hours as a firmer USD leaned on the pair on oil-driven inflation risk. Demand stepped in there and price has ground back to 1.1422, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling near 54. Move is consolidating below the 1.14282 recovery high, pinned near the 1.1400 pivot ahead of Thursday's ECB decision.
Support: 1.14023, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14282, 1.14491
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.14282 recovery high opens the path back toward the 1.1449 week high
Loss of the 1.14023 week low confirms a lower low and reopens the 1.1400 psych level
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser could materially shift this read
EUR/USD sold off from the 1.1482 week high through midweek, bottoming at 1.1402 before basing. Price has since ground back to the 23.6% retrace near 1.1420 on a string of higher lows and now sits above EMA(20) but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) recovered to the mid-50s. The 1.1400 pivot flagged into Thursday's ECB has held on every test this week.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14328, 1.1444, 1.1482
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1444 lower-highs opens the 38.2% retrace at 1.1433
Loss of 1.1400 confirms a lower-low, exposing 1.1380
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend stalling, base forming · RSI 54 · price 1.14211
Recovery off 4-day low, higher lows building above 1.1400.
EURUSD sold off through this week from the 1.1449 high to a four-day low at 1.14023 as risk-off US-Iran flows and soft German PPI kept the euro heavy. Price has since carved higher lows and reclaimed EMA20, but EMA50 near 1.1425 still caps the rebound as the 1.1400 pivot holds. RSI(14) has lifted back to the low-50s, easing the earlier downside momentum.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1400, 1.14023
Resistance: 1.1425, 1.1436, 1.14449
What it said to watch
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.1400 reopens the path toward 1.1380
close above 1.1445 week high negates the lower-high structure
EUR/USD sold off through the week toward a four-day low at 1.1402 as risk-off from US-Iran escalation and soft German PPI kept the euro heavy just above 1.1400. Price has since carved a series of higher lows into the current session, reclaiming EMA(20) with RSI(14) recovering off oversold toward the mid-50s, though price still sits below EMA(50) and the 1.14241 weekly open. The 1.1400 pivot is holding as support while 1.1427 caps the rebound.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1427, 1.14241, 1.1449
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1400 opens the four-day low and downside toward 1.1380
H1 close above 1.1427 targets the 1.1449 week high
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 51 · price 1.14231
Lower highs into 1.1402 base, higher lows since.
EURUSD slid from the post-weekend 1.1449 high to a 1.1402 week low into the NY session as a firmer USD and Mid-East risk-off weighed. Price has since carved a rounded bottom, printing higher lows back to 1.1423 and reclaiming EMA20, though it sits below EMA50 with RSI(14) hovering near 50. The sub-1.1450 topside cap still frames the week ahead of Thursday's ECB.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1402
Resistance: 1.1436, 1.1450, 1.1482
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1402 week low extends the drop toward 1.1380
H1 close above 1.1450 topside cap opens the 1.1482 week high
ECB decision Thursday could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend this week, stabilising off lows · RSI 54 · price 1.14232
Range lows holding, higher lows forming.
EURUSD gapped lower into Monday's open and faded from the 1.1449 week high to a 1.1402 low as a USD safe-haven bid held on Iran risk. Price has since carved higher lows back to 1.1423, reclaiming the H1 EMA(20) while RSI(14) recovers toward 54 from oversold. The 1.1405-1.1450 range flagged in the macro read is intact, with price now mid-band after the two-way chop.
Support: 1.14023, 1.14085, 1.1390
Resistance: 1.1429, 1.1445, 1.14491
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1445 challenges the range top at 1.1449
Failure to hold 1.1402 opens the path toward the 1.1390 range base
ECB decision Thursday 12:15 UTC is the week's key event and could reset this read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend easing into consolidation · RSI 54 · price 1.14232
Lower highs off 1.1482, basing near week low.
EUR faded from 1.1482 highs into a 1.1402 week low, and after the weekend gap has been consolidating 1.1410–1.1420 with a mild recovery into the current NY session. Price has reclaimed EMA(20) but sits just under EMA(50) around 1.1425, keeping the this-week range-bound read intact. The move fits the digest's 1.1405–1.1450 range narrative ahead of Thursday's ECB.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1402, 1.1390
Resistance: 1.1425, 1.1449, 1.1450
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1450 range cap would break the consolidation upside
Failure to hold 1.1402 week low opens the path toward 1.1390 range floor
ECB decision Thursday could materially shift this range read
EUR/USD peaked at 1.1482 midweek before grinding lower on softer German PPI and an oil-driven USD safe-haven bid, printing successive lower highs into the current-day base around 1.1410. Price has stalled just above the 1.1402 week low with RSI(14) hovering near 50 through quiet Asia hours, sitting under the 1.14241 weekly open. The market is coiling into Thursday's ECB hold, with 1.1400 the pivot the range has defended.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14241, 1.1449, 1.1482
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1400 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.1390 region
Reclaim of the 1.14241 weekly open needed to break the lower-high sequence
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD leaked lower through the week, sliding from 1.1449 to a 1.1402 week low before stabilising just above it. Softer German PPI and an oil-driven USD bid kept the pair pinned under the 1.14241 weekly open, and price is now chopping in a tight 1.1402–1.1419 band with RSI(14) hovering near neutral. Buyers stepped in twice around 1.1402, but each recovery has stalled below EMA(50).
Support: 1.14023, 1.14085
Resistance: 1.14241, 1.14491
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.14023 confirms a lower low, opening 1.1390/1.1380
Reclaim of 1.14241 weekly open shifts the near-term read
ECB hold Thursday 12:15 UTC and today's ZEW could break the range
EUR/USD gapped lower into Monday's open and sold off from the 1.1449 this-week high to a 1.14023 low as a renewed US-Iran risk premium firmed the Dollar. Price has since gone flat, coiling just under 1.142 with RSI(14) mid-40s and price pinned around EMA20 but capped by EMA50 near 1.1425. Lower highs since the week high keep the near-term structure heavy ahead of Thursday's ECB.
Support: 1.14085, 1.14023
Resistance: 1.1425, 1.14491
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.14023 confirms a lower low and extends the decline
Reclaim of EMA50 near 1.1425 would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
German ZEW today and ECB Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs off week high, consolidating above week low.
EUR/USD spiked to 1.1482 early in the week then ground steadily lower into a 1.1402 week low as a safe-haven and energy-driven USD bid took over. Price is now coiling in a tight 1.1410–1.1417 band below EMA(50), with RSI(14) basing in the mid-40s after the decline. The descending line of lower highs from 1.1476 continues to cap rallies.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1410, 1.1390
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1449, 1.1482
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1402 confirms a lower low and opens the 1.1390 area
Reclaim of 1.1420 range top needed to challenge the lower-high line
ECB hold Thursday 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD faded from the 1.1449 week high into the NY session and sold down to 1.1402 before basing, dragged by a firmer USD on Middle East safe-haven flows. Price is now coiling just above the 1.1405 pivot and below EMA(20), with RSI(14) hovering in the low-40s after failing to reclaim the mid-range. Recovery attempts have stalled under 1.1418, keeping the near-term structure heavy.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1390
Resistance: 1.1418, 1.1449
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.1402 confirms a lower low, opening the 1.1390 pivot
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.1418 would neutralise the downside pressure
ECB decision Thu 12:15 GMT could materially shift this read
EUR/USD has trended lower through the week, sliding from the 1.1482 high to a 1.14023 overnight low before stabilising near 1.1410. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s; a German PPI miss and a firmer USD on Mideast safe-haven demand drove the fade. The 1.1400 round number is holding for now as demand steps in on the base.
Support: 1.1400, 1.14023, 1.1385
Resistance: 1.1425, 1.1449, 1.1450
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1400 opens the path toward 1.1385
Reclaim of the 1.1450 range cap needed to break the week's lower-highs
ECB decision Thu 12:15 GMT could materially shift this read
EUR/USD has ground lower all week, rolling from Monday's 1.1449 high down to the 1.1402 week low before basing in a tight band around 1.1410. The leg down came in the NY session as higher oil and renewed Gulf headlines revived the USD, with softer German PPI trimming the euro at the margin. Price sits below EMA20 (~1.1425) with RSI(14) stalled near 41, reflecting the flattening after the drop.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1425, 1.1449
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.1402 confirms a fresh lower low, opening 1.1400 psych
Reclaim of EMA20 near 1.1425 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
ECB decision Thu 12:15 GMT could materially shift this read
EUR/USD faded from the 1.1449 print earlier this week down to a 1.1402 low as a firmer USD on Gulf/oil headlines weighed, and price has since stalled in a tight band just above that low. EMA20 near 1.1416 is capping recoveries with RSI holding in the low-40s, keeping the near-term structure heavy. Range cap at 1.1450 has held all week.
Support: 1.14023, 1.1390
Resistance: 1.1416, 1.1450
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1390 confirms a lower-low and opens downside per digest toward 1.1210
Reclaim of EMA20 at 1.1416 would neutralise the recent lower-high sequence
ECB decision Thu 12:15 GMT could materially shift this read
EURUSD slid through the NY session from 1.1449 to a 1.1402 low as the dollar firmed on a Gulf risk premium (DXY ~100.75), and price is now basing just under EMA20 (~1.1417). Lower highs since Tuesday cap the tape and RSI(14) sits mid-40s with no clear divergence. Buyers stepped in twice around 1.1402–1.1400, holding the recent low into thin Asia hours.
Support: 1.14023, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1417, 1.1441, 1.14491
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1417 EMA20 neutralises the lower-high sequence
Break below 1.1400 round number confirms a fresh lower low toward the 1.1390 area
ECB decision Thu Jul 23 12:15 UTC is the dominant EUR catalyst this week
EUR/USD has ground out a sequence of lower highs since mid-week, and after last NY session's leg down to 1.1402 the pair is basing in a tight range just under the EMA20 at ~1.1420. The weekend gap opened near 1.1424 and price has since drifted back toward the week low, with RSI(14) hovering in the low-40s as momentum flattens. Drivers stayed light ahead of Thursday's ECB, with a firmer dollar (DXY ~100.75) capping the euro.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1450
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1400 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.1390
Reclaim of EMA20 at 1.1420 needed to challenge the 1.1450 range top
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD has ground lower through the week, sliding from the 1.1482 high into a base near the 1.14023 swing low after a soft German PPI print and firmer DXY. Price is pinned just below EMA20 with RSI cycling in the low 40s; the weekend gap lower has not been filled and lower highs remain intact into ECB week. The 1.1405/1.1400 pivot zone has held the latest downdraft, with buyers stepping in twice around 1.1406.
Support: 1.14023, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1417, 1.14491, 1.1482
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.14000 confirms a lower-low and reopens the downside
Reclaim of EMA20 near 1.1417 and 1.14491 prior high needed to break the lower-high sequence
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC and press conference are the key vol event that could reset this read
EUR/USD slipped from Monday's 1.1449 session high through the week, breaking down through the NY session to test 1.1402 before stalling. Price is now consolidating around 1.1410, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) mid-40s. The soft German PPI and firm DXY near 100.75 underpinned the drift lower.
Support: 1.1402, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1449
What it said to watch
Close back above 1.1420 EMA20 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Break of 1.1400 opens the path toward 1.1385/1.1380
ECB decision Thursday 12:15 UTC is the dominant risk to this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising near lows · RSI 43 · price 1.14174
Lower highs, week low probed then bounce.
EUR/USD rolled over from Monday's 1.1482 high and slid through the NY session to a week low at 1.14023 before stabilising in a tight 1.1410–1.1417 range. Price sits below EMA20 (~1.1421) with RSI(14) cycling in the low 40s, and lower highs cap each bounce as the pair holds under its recent supply. Softer German PPI and ECB caution have kept the tone heavy ahead of Thursday's decision.
Support: 1.14023, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1421, 1.1429, 1.14491
What it said to watch
Hold or break of 1.14000 round number decides whether the week low extends
Reclaim of EMA20 near 1.1421 and a close above 1.14290 swing high would neutralise the downtrend
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC + press conference is the dominant catalyst for this read
EUR slid from Monday's 1.1482 high in a stair-step of lower highs, bottoming at the 1.14023 week low into Friday's late session before a shallow bounce to 1.1417. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, consolidating just above the 1.1405 pivot. Softer German PPI and ECB caution kept the pair capped well below the 1.1470 barrier.
Support: 1.1405, 1.14023
Resistance: 1.14491, 1.1470
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.14023 confirms a lower low and opens the 1.1390/1.1410 pivot zone
Reclaim of the 1.14491 lower high needed to challenge descending resistance
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read