EURUSD remains in a clean H4 downtrend, carving lower highs and lower lows since the breakdown through 1.15 after the hawkish Fed repriced two 2026 hikes. Price has slipped below the 1.1450-1.1470 congestion and is retesting the 1.14175 swing low, with both EMA20 and EMA50 capping overhead. ATR holding near 27 pips keeps the move orderly rather than climactic, though RSI near 37 reflects oversold-leaning conditions.
Support: 1.14175, 1.1410, 1.1210
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.1490
What it said to watch
Break of 1.1410 opens the path toward 1.1210
H4 close back above 1.1470 would neutralise the breakdown read
EZ flash PMIs Tue 07:15-08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 38 · price 1.14251
Lower highs, lower lows; pressing fresh lows.
EURUSD has trended steadily lower for two weeks, slipping firmly below the 1.15 pivot as the post-hawkish-Fed USD bid dominates. Price now probes the 1.14175 swing low with both EMAs sloping down and capping every bounce, while RSI sits near oversold without yet diverging. ATR remains elevated, consistent with an extending downtrend rather than compression.
Support: 1.14175, 1.1410, 1.1390
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1410 confirms continuation toward the 1.1390/1.1210 zone
Reclaim of 1.1470 would mark the first higher high and stall the downtrend read
Eurozone flash PMIs Tue 07:15-08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 37 · price 1.1431
Lower highs and lower lows since mid-window.
EURUSD remains in a clear H4 downtrend, carving lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1685 area down to fresh lows at 1.1426, with price now pressing the 1.1390/1.1410 support zone as a firm USD on hawkish-Fed repricing dominates. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 and the last bar extended the decline on a wide-range close. RSI near 36 reflects stretched downside momentum without yet flagging exhaustion.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1390, 1.1210
Resistance: 1.1495, 1.1570
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1410 support zone opens the path toward 1.1210
Reclaim of 1.1495 consol cap needed to ease the downside pressure
EZ flash PMIs Tue ~07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
EURUSD remains in a clean H4 downtrend, carving lower highs and lower lows after the break below 1.15, with price now testing the 1.1410/1.1390 support zone — a move driven by a firm USD on hawkish-Fed repricing and a faded ECB hike. Price sits well below both the EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR is steady rather than compressing, consistent with trend extension. RSI near 35 reflects oversold conditions but no bullish divergence yet.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1390, 1.1210
Resistance: 1.1495
What it said to watch
EZ flash PMIs Tue ~07:30 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
A clean H4 close below 1.1390 opens the path toward 1.1210
Recovery and close above the 1.1495 consolidation cap would neutralise the lower-high structure
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum heavy · RSI 40 · price 1.14481
Lower highs, lower lows; basing near 3-mo low.
Persistent lower-high, lower-low structure since the early-month rollover from 1.1673; the post-ECB/hawkish-Fed leg drove price to a fresh 3-month low at 1.1417 before a tentative base formed. Price now consolidates 1.1437-1.1480 below the 1.1495 cap, with both EMAs stacked overhead confirming the bearish swing. ATR has cooled from the breakdown spike, signalling compression after the impulsive drop.
Support: 1.1417, 1.1390
Resistance: 1.1495, 1.1570
What it said to watch
Tomorrow's eurozone HCOB flash PMIs (~07:30-08:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Break below 1.1410 support zone opens the path toward 1.1210
H4 close above 1.1495 cap would relieve the bearish structure toward 1.1570
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 41 · price 1.14481
Lower highs and lower lows since mid-month, basing above 1.1417.
EURUSD remains in a clear H4 downtrend, having shed nearly 200 pips from the 1.1619 swing high to a fresh 3-month low at 1.1417, with price now basing in a tight 1.1440-1.1470 band below both EMAs. The slide tracks policy divergence — a hawkish Fed lifting DXY to 1-year highs while soft eurozone PPI underlines the growth drag — capping every bounce at the 1.1495 cap. ATR is steady, with the consolidation holding just above the 1.1410/1.1417 support shelf.
Support: 1.1417, 1.1410, 1.1210
Resistance: 1.1495, 1.1570, 1.1619
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1495 cap would ease the downtrend read toward 1.1570
Break below 1.1410 support zone opens the 1.1210 path
Eurozone HCOB flash PMIs tomorrow ~07:30-08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Persistent downtrend: lower highs and lower lows since the early-window roll-over near 1.1686, with last week's break below 1.1500 extending to a three-month low at 1.1417. Price trades below both EMA20 and EMA50 as a hawkish-Fed dollar at 13-month highs caps EUR despite the ECB hike. ATR holds an expanded regime, but the bounce off 1.1417 has price consolidating in the 1.1440–1.1470 area.
Support: 1.1417, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.1500, 1.1531
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1470 pivot would ease the bearish tone
Failure to hold 1.1417 confirms a fresh lower-low toward the 1.1400 bull-defense zone
Lagarde (13:00/15:15 UTC) and Tue HCOB flash PMIs could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, near 3-month low · RSI 41 · price 1.1446
Lower highs, lower lows since mid-window.
EUR/USD remains in a clear H4 downtrend, printing successive lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1620 area broke, with price now grinding near the 1.1417 three-month low. The slide accelerated on a hawkish-Fed dollar at 13-month highs, which has overshadowed the ECB hike; price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, both sloping lower. The bounce off 1.1417 has been shallow, with supply capping near the 1.1471 pivot.
Support: 1.1417, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1471
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close below 1.1417 opens the path toward the 1.1400 bull-defense zone
Reclaim of the 1.1471 pivot would ease the bearish structure
Tue HCOB flash PMIs and Lagarde speeches today could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, stabilising above 3-month low.
Persistent downtrend on H4 with lower highs and lower lows since the early-month top near 1.1685, driven by the hawkish-Fed USD repricing that capped every recovery attempt. The sharp leg down bottomed at the 1.14175 three-month low, and price is now consolidating below 1.148 with both EMAs sloping lower overhead. ATR remains elevated after the impulsive drop, signalling the move is still expanding rather than basing.
H4 close above 1.14803 challenges the descending lower-highs line
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:30 UTC tomorrow are the key catalyst for this read
Lagarde speeches today could shift the EUR leg
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, near 3-month low · RSI 38 · price 1.14545
Lower highs and lower lows, basing above 1.1417.
EURUSD remains in a clear H4 downtrend, having sliced from the 1.1620 region to a three-month low at 1.1417 as hawkish-Fed repricing rebuilt USD longs and soft German PPI reinforced the divergence story. Price is now basing in a tight consolidation just above the low, capped below the 1.1470 barrier. ATR remains elevated after the impulsive selloff, with EMA20 and EMA50 stacked overhead.
Support: 1.1417, 1.1427
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.1619
What it said to watch
A clean break below 1.1417 opens fresh downside
H4 close above 1.1470 barrier would relieve the downside pressure
Lagarde speaks 3x today and Eurozone flash PMIs tomorrow — either could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, bounce off 3-month low.
EURUSD remains in a clean downtrend, dragged from above 1.1600 to a 3-month low at 1.1418 after the Fed's hawkish hold lifted DXY to multi-month highs. Price is below both EMA20 and EMA50, but the slide has stalled and a shallow bounce is capping near 1.1480 with RSI lifting off oversold. ATR has compressed since the impulse drop, leaving price grinding in a tight range above the lows.
Support: 1.1418, 1.1411
Resistance: 1.1480
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1411 confirms downtrend continuation to fresh lows
H4 close above 1.1480 challenges the lower-high sequence
Lagarde speeches Mon and eurozone flash PMIs Tue could materially shift this read
EURUSD remains in a clear H4 downtrend, carving lower highs and lower lows since the mid-month break of 1.1590 after the Fed's hawkish hold lifted the dollar to a one-year high. Price tagged the 1.1418 swing low and has stabilised just above the 1.1411 key support, with a shallow oversold bounce capped under 1.1480. Both EMA20 and EMA50 sit overhead and slope lower, keeping structure heavy.
Support: 1.1418, 1.1411
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.1530
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1411 confirms continuation to fresh lows
Close above 1.1480 challenges the lower-high structure
Lagarde speeches Mon and eurozone flash PMIs Tue could shift this read