21:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing in a range · RSI 44 · price 1.32369
Lower highs from 1.3568; 1.3181–1.3311 range below falling trendline.
Lower highs since the 1.3568 early-September top keep the pair in a downtrend, but since late September price has compressed into a 1.3181–1.3311 range beneath the falling lower-high trendline. The gilt-rout and DXY-high push briefly broke below the 1.3205 prior lows to the 1.3181 swing low, then reversed on Friday's soft NFP; the rebound stalled at the nfp high near 1.3256, inside the 50–61.8% fib zone of the 1.3311–1.3181 leg. Price holds above EMA20 but below EMA50, with ATR(14) near 33 pips and steady rather than expanding.
Support: 1.3205, 1.3181, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3256, 1.3288, 1.3311
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 1.3256 nfp high and the trendline near 1.3288 would challenge the lower-high sequence, exposing the 1.3311 swing high
- Slip back below the 1.3205 prior lows and 1.3181 swing low would confirm a lower-low and expose the 1.3140 ytd low
- US ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
- BoE Mann speech Tue 08:40 UTC and gilt yield moves remain a two-way risk for sterling