21:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling at June lows · RSI 36 · price 1.32369
Lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 peak; Aug–Sep range broken Sep 16.
GBPUSD has been in a six-week decline from the 1.3675 high set on Aug 21. Since the 1.3460–1.3570 range gave way on Sep 16, each weekly bounce has failed at a lower high, and price sits below a falling EMA(50) near 1.3410. This week's global bond rout and the gilt selloff pushed the pair to 1.3181, a retest of the Jun 26 low. Friday's soft US NFP lifted the close back to 1.3237. RSI(14) is in the mid-30s and has held above 30 across the last two lows, and the falling trendline from the Sep 9 high caps near 1.3280.
Support: 1.3180, 1.3140, 1.3000
Resistance: 1.3311, 1.3370, 1.3410
What it said to watch
- A daily close below 1.3180 (Jun 26 low) extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3140 YTD low, with 1.3000 psych beyond
- A close above the 1.3311 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the sequence; the fib 38.2 at 1.3370 and EMA(50) near 1.3410 are the next references
- ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
- Renewed gilt pressure (30y back above 6%) could also materially shift this read