GBP/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the GBP/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Uptrend after range break, momentum cooling · RSI 66 · price 1.32732
Tuesday break of the 1.3190-1.3265 range; tight consolidation holding above the old range top.
GBP/USD spent Thursday through Monday boxed between the 1.3190 week low, where Monday printed a double bottom, and the 1.3255-1.3265 range top. Tuesday's London session broke out as the USD faded from 18-month highs and yields eased. The Tuesday impulse ran from 1.3201 to a 1.3286 week high, and NY-session dips and the daily rollover have since retested the old range top at 1.3261 while price holds above EMA(20) near 1.3259. RSI(14) at ~66 has cooled from the impulse without rolling over, and the higher-lows line from Monday's low is intact.
Support: 1.3261, 1.3239, 1.3190
Resistance: 1.3286, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.3261 range top and EMA(20) would turn the breakout into a false break
Close above the 1.3286 week high opens the 1.3300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3239 weekly open and the Tuesday impulse fib 50% (~1.3243) puts the 1.3190 week low back in play
Break of the higher-lows line from Monday's low would end the sequence of rising swing lows
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Uptrend since Tuesday, consolidating near highs · RSI 64 · price 1.32734
Higher lows from 1.3190, range break above 1.3256 holding.
Monday's NY-session dip to 1.3190 held above last week's 1.3181 low. Tuesday's London session then broke the 1.3190–1.3256 range as the dollar eased on lower Treasury yields, a USD-led move rather than a GBP-specific one. Since then price has compressed between 1.3261 and the 1.3286 week high, holding above EMA(20) near 1.3260 with RSI(14) cooling into the mid-60s. The 50% fib of Tuesday's leg sits at 1.3243, just under Friday's 1.3256 post-NFP high.
Support: 1.3260, 1.3243, 1.3201
Resistance: 1.32855, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3286 week high opens the 1.3300 round number
Failure to hold ema20 near 1.3260 exposes the 1.3243 fib 50% and Friday's 1.3256 high as the retest zone
Break of the higher-lows trendline near 1.3211 and the 1.3201 tuesday low would unwind the range break
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; BoE Greene and Lombardelli follow Thursday
21:03 UTC
Uptrend, breakout leg pausing · RSI 66 · price 1.32742
Range break above 1.3265, higher lows since Thursday, tight consolidation above range top.
Cable opened the week at 1.3239 (weekly open) and spent Monday inside the 1.3190–1.3265 band. Dips to 1.3190 found demand twice, extending a run of higher lows from Thursday's 1.3181. Today's London session drove the impulse from 1.3201 through the 1.3265 range top to a 1.32855 week high, as Mann's embedded-inflation warning met a softer USD. NY hours have since compressed in a 1.3270–1.3280 band, with the 1.3261 dip acting as a retest of the range top and EMA(20) rising beneath at 1.3257, while RSI(14) has eased from its highs to the mid-60s.
Support: 1.3265, 1.3257, 1.3239
Resistance: 1.32855, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3265 range top would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 1.3239 weekly open
Clearance of the 1.32855 week high opens the path to the 1.3300 psych level
A 50% retracement of today's impulse sits near 1.3243, just above the weekly open; holding above it keeps the higher lows sequence intact
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BoE Greene (09:15 UTC) and Lombardelli (13:00 UTC) on Thursday could test the breakout
Range break above 1.3256, higher lows since Monday.
GBPUSD held a 1.3180–1.3256 range from Thursday into Monday, where a double low at 1.3190 held, before Tuesday's London session broke the range top as Mann's 'embedded inflation' warning and a softer USD lifted cable. NY hours extended the move to a 1.3286 session high, and price is now consolidating just above the 1.3256 nfp high, with RSI(14) cooling from overbought into the mid-60s. EMA(20) is rising underneath near 1.3260, and the higher-low line from Monday's double low is intact.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3239, 1.3190
Resistance: 1.3286, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3256 nfp high would turn the range break into a false break
Loss of the weekly open at 1.3239, near the 38.2–50% fib of the Mon-Tue impulse, puts the double low at 1.3190 back in focus
Clearance of the 1.3286 session high opens the 1.3300 round number
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and BoE Greene/Lombardelli on Thu could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday; 1.3266 range top cleared, holding above.
GBP/USD broke above the 1.3266 range top in Tuesday's London session. The move began at the London open and accelerated around Mann's 'embedded inflation' remarks while the USD softened, extending the climb from Monday's 1.3190 low to a 1.3286 week high. NY hours have held the gains in a tight band above the old range top, with price well clear of EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 71; the fib 38.2 at 1.3249 and the 1.3239 weekly open sit below as the first retracement markers.
Support: 1.3266, 1.3249, 1.3239
Resistance: 1.3286, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3266 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Clearance of the 1.3286 week high and the 1.3300 round number extends the higher-low sequence
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift the USD side of this read
Loss of the higher-low trendline and the 1.3239 weekly open reopens the 1.3200 base
BoE Greene and Lombardelli on Thursday can reprice the November hike odds behind the move
Range break above 1.3250, higher lows since Monday.
GBPUSD broke the 1.3180–1.3250 range that had held since Thursday's London open. Today's late-London impulse ran from 1.3201 to a 1.3286 week high after BoE's Mann warned on embedded inflation and the USD eased off its highs. Through NY hours the pair has consolidated between the 1.3261 pullback low and the week high, holding above the range top and a rising EMA(20) near 1.3250. RSI(14) has cooled from overbought to around 69, and higher lows at 1.3190 Monday and 1.3201 today underpin the move.
Support: 1.3261, 1.3250, 1.3239
Resistance: 1.32855, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3250 range top would turn the move into a false break
Break of the 1.3261 pullback low exposes the 1.3239 weekly open, near the 50% retracement of today's impulse
Acceptance above the 1.3286 week high opens the 1.3300 round number
Loss of the higher-lows line from Monday's 1.3190 low weakens the trend read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and BoE Greene/Lombardelli on Thu could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday's 1.3190 base; range top cleared.
After a double bottom at the 1.3190 Monday low, GBPUSD broke out of the 1.3190–1.3250 range during today's London session. The move followed Mann's 'embedded inflation' warning and a softer USD after the wider US trade deficit. The impulse cleared the 1.3265 range top. NY hours retested that level at 1.3261 and printed a week high at 1.32855, with RSI(14) near 70 and EMA(20) trailing at 1.3248, beside the prior high at 1.3250.
Support: 1.3265, 1.3250, 1.3239
Resistance: 1.32855, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3265 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3250 prior high and EMA(20) exposes the 1.3239 weekly open, near the 50% retrace of the Mon low–week high move
A sustained push through the 1.32855 week high opens the 1.3300 round number
A break of the higher-lows trendline from Monday's low ends the uptrend read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; BoE Greene/Lombardelli on Thu add GBP risk
Range break above 1.3265 with higher lows since Monday.
Cable broke out of the 1.3190–1.3265 range during London hours today. A single impulsive bar mid-session cleared the range top and printed a 1.3283 session high as DXY slipped below 102.00 and UK construction PMI beat. The early-NY dip to 1.3261 held at the former range top on a first retest, leaving price well above the ema20 near 1.3245 with RSI(14) around 72. The rally sits on a higher-low sequence from Monday's 1.3190 week low through today's 1.3201 Asia-session low.
Support: 1.3265, 1.3245, 1.3190
Resistance: 1.3283, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3265 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Session high at 1.3283 and the 1.3300 round number are capping so far; a close above opens room for extension
Loss of the ema20 near 1.3245, which aligns with the 38.2% fib, would point to a deeper retracement toward the 50% level near 1.3237
A break of the higher-low trendline from the Monday week low would undo the swing structure
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and BoE Greene/Lombardelli on Thu could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Range breakout higher, first pullback underway · RSI 69 · price 1.32683
Higher lows since Monday; break above 1.3200-1.3256 range top.
Cable spent Thursday through Monday inside a 1.3181-1.3256 band, with dips into 1.3190 holding twice on Monday and a higher low at 1.3201 in today's Asian range. Today's London session broke the range top in an 82-pip impulse to a 1.3283 london high, just shy of the 1.3286 Sep 30 high, helped by UK PMI beats and a softer USD off its annual high. The first pullback is testing the 1.3263-1.3265 former range top, with EMA20 well below near 1.3241 and RSI(14) near 69 after the run.
Support: 1.3263, 1.3256, 1.3241
Resistance: 1.3283, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3256 friday high, where the 38.2% retracement of the London impulse also sits, would turn the breakout into a false break
Holding the range top on this retest keeps the break intact; clearing the london high and 1.3286 opens the 1.3300 round number
A slide toward ema20 at 1.3241 would test whether the higher lows sequence from Monday holds
Fed's Bowman (14:45 UTC today) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
Breakout above 1.3180–1.3256 range; higher lows since Monday.
Cable held a 1.3180–1.3256 range from Thursday through Tuesday's Asia session. Friday's soft NFP lifted it off the floor, and Monday's two dips to the 1.3190 range low found demand, leaving a run of higher lows. Late in today's London session price broke the 1.3256 range top and the 1.3265 area to print a 1.3283 day high as the dollar eased with yields, now sitting well above EMA(20) near 1.3239 with RSI(14) around 72 and overbought after the impulse.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3239, 1.3190
Resistance: 1.3283, 1.3294, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3256 range top would mark today's move as a false break and put price back inside the range
38.2% of today's rally fib near 1.3251 and EMA(20) at 1.3239 are the first areas to watch on any pullback; holding them keeps the higher-lows trendline intact
Close above the 1.3294 week high and 1.3300 psych level clears the top of this window
Failure back through the 1.3190 range low would confirm a lower-low and void the breakout read
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC today and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating into fresh week high · RSI 74 · price 1.32782
Higher lows since Thursday, break above two-week range top.
Monday's two tests of the 1.3190 monday low, both in Asia and around NY open, built a double bottom above Thursday's 1.3181 trough. Tuesday's London session pushed price through the 1.3239 weekly open and then Friday's 1.3256 high. A 35-pip impulse late in the London morning cleared the 1.3265 range top and printed a week high at 1.3282, with UK PMI beats underpinning GBP as the USD eased off its 18-month high. Price is stretched well above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 74. The rising lows from Monday's NY dip mark the structural support line, while the 1.3296 sep 30 high and the 1.3300 round number sit directly overhead.
Support: 1.3265, 1.3239, 1.3190
Resistance: 1.3282, 1.3296, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.3265 range top would mark the move as a false break
50% fib retracement of the Monday low-to-week high leg sits near 1.3236, in confluence with the weekly open
Break of the rising lows line and loss of the 1.3190 monday low would undo the double bottom
Acceptance above the 1.3296 sep 30 high and 1.3300 round number extends the breakout
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
1.3190–1.3256 range since Oct 1; higher lows forming this week.
Monday's USD bid on French fiscal stress sent cable to a week low at 1.3190 twice, in Asia and again at the NY open, but each dip was bought back into the range. Today's rebound started from a higher low at the 1.3201 range floor before London open. It then pushed through EMA(20) to 1.3248, with RSI(14) lifting into the mid-60s. Price now sits just under the 1.3250 week high, with Friday's post-NFP nfp high at 1.3256 and the 1.3265 range top stacked above.
Support: 1.3229, 1.3201, 1.3190
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3256, 1.3265
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3256 nfp high exposes the 1.3265 range top and challenges the range read
Slip back below EMA(20) near 1.3229 returns price to mid-range; loss of the 1.3201 range floor breaks the higher lows
Break under the 1.3190 week low confirms a range break lower
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
1.3190–1.3256 range since NFP; higher low Tuesday.
Cable has held a 1.3190–1.3256 range since Friday's NFP miss. Monday's yield-driven USD bid found demand twice at the 1.3190 week low, in the Asia session and again in Monday's NY session, before Tuesday's low printed higher at 1.3201 and the higher-lows line formed. The London open lift has put price back above EMA(20) near 1.3226 and into the 1.3246 session high and 1.3250 week high, just under the 1.3256 nfp high, while the nfp swing fib 50% near 1.3218 has anchored this week's midrange.
Support: 1.3226, 1.3201, 1.3190
Resistance: 1.3246, 1.3250, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3256 nfp high breaks the range top and the lower-highs line from Friday
Rejection at the 1.3246 session high / 1.3250 week high keeps the range read intact
A slip back below ema20 at 1.3226 and the higher-lows line returns price to the nfp swing fib 50% near 1.3218
Failure to hold the 1.3201 tuesday low and 1.3190 week low confirms a lower low toward Thursday's 1.3181
US ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC today could shift this read; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger risk
10:02 UTC
Range-bound after last week's selloff, momentum firming intraday · RSI 63 · price 1.32427
Contracting 1.3180–1.3256 range, lower highs since Friday's post-NFP high.
Cable has traded a 1.3180–1.3256 range since Thursday's low. Monday's Asia-session drop and NY-open dip both found demand near the 1.3190 week low as record US yields lifted the dollar, before today's London open drove a 45-pip push off 1.3201 back above the 1.3239 weekly open and the ema20, with RSI(14) near 63. Highs have stepped down from Friday's 1.3256 nfp high to Monday's 1.3250 week high and today's 1.3246, a lower-highs line that sits on the 50% retracement of last week's 1.3311–1.3181 decline.
Support: 1.3239, 1.3226, 1.3190
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3256, 1.3265
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 1.3250 week high opens the 1.3256 nfp high and the 1.3265 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3239 weekly open and the ema20 near 1.3226 returns price to mid-range
Break below the 1.3190 week low exposes Thursday's 1.3181 low and the 1.3200/1.3180 floor
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
1.3180–1.3256 range since Thursday, higher lows pressing the range top.
GBPUSD has held a 1.3180–1.3256 range since Thursday's bond-selloff low, with lows stepping up to 1.3190 in Monday's NY session and 1.3201 (Tuesday's low) just before London open. The London-open push through the weekly open, extending into Mann's 08:40 UTC speech, has price pressing Monday's high near 1.3250 with RSI(14) at 65 and price back above EMA(20) after an overnight flat spell. The move sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% levels of the Thursday drop fib, just under Friday's NFP high at 1.3256.
Support: 1.3239, 1.3225, 1.3201
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3256, 1.3266
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3256 NFP high exposes Thursday's 1.3266 high, the top of the two-week range
Slip back below the 1.3239 weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.3225 returns price to the range middle
Break of the higher-lows line near 1.3205 and Tuesday's low at 1.3201 reopens 1.3180
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift the USD leg into NY hours
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the main risk to the range read
Range 1.3180–1.3256 since Thursday, compressing with lower highs.
Friday's NFP miss lifted the pair to the 1.3256 nfp high. That high sat between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday–Thursday drop. Monday unwound the move as the dollar firmed on record-cycle yields and French fiscal stress, though the NY-open dip held the 1.3190 monday low above Thursday's 1.3181 range floor. Tuesday's Asia and early London trade is boxed between the 1.3200 round number and the 1.3232 tuesday high. Price is flat at EMA(20), below the 1.3239 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 47 and lower highs tightening the range from above.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3232, 1.3239, 1.3256
What it said to watch
BoE Mann speech at 08:40 UTC is the near-term catalyst and could break the 1.3200–1.3232 compression
H1 close above the 1.3232 tuesday high and the 1.3239 weekly open breaks the lower-highs line and the 38.2% cap; 1.3256 nfp high next
Failure to hold the 1.3200 round number exposes the 1.3190 monday low and 1.3181 range floor; a close below the floor ends the range read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.32151
Range 1.3181–1.3256 since Thursday, highs lowering.
Cable has held a 1.3181–1.3256 range since Thursday's low. Friday's weak NFP lifted it to the 1.3256 nfp high before record-high US yields capped the bounce. Monday's two dips to the 1.3190 monday low found demand. Since then the session highs have stepped lower at 1.3250, 1.3239 and the 1.3232 day high, a lower highs line that keeps price below the weekly open. Price is pinned around EMA(20) near 1.3218 and the 50% of the nfp leg fib, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and ATR contracting through the Asian range.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3232, 1.3239, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3200 psych exposes the 1.3190 monday low and the 1.3181 thursday low; losing those breaks the range lower
H1 close above the lower highs line and the 1.3239 weekly open reopens the 1.3256 nfp high
BoE's Mann at 08:40 UTC and Fed's Williams/Bowman later today could shift the range read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and US 10y yields near 2002 highs remain the dominant USD-side risk
Range 1.3181–1.3256 since Thursday, lower highs since Monday open.
GBPUSD has rotated inside a 1.3181–1.3256 range since Thursday's low. Friday's NFP miss drove the NY-session spike to the 1.3256 nfp high, and a yield-led USD bid faded that move from the 1.3239 weekly open on Monday. Demand held the 1.3190 monday low twice, once in Asia and once early in NY, while highs have stepped lower into today's tight Asian range above the 1.3212 asian low. Price sits just under the EMA(20) near 1.3218 with RSI(14) flat around 51, parked between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the thu low–nfp high fib.
Support: 1.3212, 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3218, 1.3239, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower highs line near 1.3225 and the 1.3239 weekly open would break Monday's lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.3212 asian low puts the 1.3190 monday low back in play; failure there exposes the 1.3181 thu low and range floor
BoE Mann at 08:40 UTC: a firmer near-term hike signal could test the 1.3256 nfp high given crowded GBP shorts
Fed's Williams/Bowman today and FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could reset USD yield pricing and shift this range read
Lower highs since Monday's open against a flat 1.3190 floor.
Monday's dips to the 1.3190 monday low, first before London and again into the NY open, were both absorbed as yield-driven USD strength met beat-driven support from the UK PMI prints, keeping price inside the 1.3181–1.3256 band built since Thursday. Highs have stepped lower from the 1.3250 weekly-open area through Tuesday's Asian range of 1.3212–1.3232 (Asia low / Asia high). Price sits just below a flattening EMA(20) at the 50% retrace of Friday's NFP bounce, with RSI(14) parked near 48 and ATR compressing to about 11 pips.
Support: 1.3212, 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3232, 1.3239, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3232 Asia high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.3239 weekly open and the 1.3256 friday high
Failure to hold the 1.3190 monday low exposes the 1.3181 thursday low and the range floor
A break below the 1.3212 Asia low puts the 61.8% of the NFP bounce fib near 1.3209 in play
BoE Mann at 08:40 UTC and Fed's Williams/Bowman later today could shift this read, with FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC the larger USD risk
Lower highs vs higher lows inside a 1.3181–1.3256 range.
Since Thursday's 1.3181 low (thu low), GBPUSD has held a 1.3181–1.3256 range. Friday's NFP-miss spike stalled at the friday high, just above the 50% fib retrace of the Wednesday–Thursday sell-off. Monday's low at 1.3190 was tested in both Asia and NY hours and bought back each time as UK PMI beats offset a yield-led USD, while lower highs have stepped down to Tuesday's asian high at 1.3232. Price is pinned on a flat EMA(20) just under EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 50 and ATR(14) contracting beneath the weekly open.
Support: 1.3212, 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3232, 1.3239, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close below the asian low at 1.3212 breaks the higher lows trendline from Monday's NY low
Loss of the monday low at 1.3190 exposes the thu low at 1.3181 and the range floor
Close above the asian high and weekly open (1.3232–1.3239) puts the friday high at 1.3256 back in play
BoE Mann (08:40 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman (13:05/14:45 UTC) today could break the range; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC
Contracting 1.3181–1.3256 range: lower highs vs higher lows.
Since Wednesday's 1.3311 peak, highs have stepped lower. Friday's post-NFP rebound stalled at the 1.3256 friday high, between the 50% and 61.8% of the Wed–Thu drop fib, and Monday high printed at 1.3250. Lows are rising from Thursday's NY-session flush to the 1.3181 4-week low, and both of Monday's dips to the 1.3190 monday low were absorbed: once in Asia and again on the soft ISM print in NY, even as record US yields kept the dollar firm. Price now flatlines at 1.3221 in Asia, below the 1.3239 weekly open, sitting on EMA(20) and just under EMA(50), with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3250, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3190 monday low breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 1.3181 4-week low
Hold of the 1.3200 round number keeps the Asian range intact; a loss shifts the read to the range floor
Reclaim of the 1.3239 weekly open and a close through the lower highs trendline and 1.3250 monday high ends the lower-high sequence, with the 1.3256 friday high next
BoE's Mann at 08:40 UTC, then ADP, Williams and Bowman during NY hours, could break the contracting range either side
Range 1.3181–1.3256 since Thursday, highs compressing lower.
Wednesday's push to 1.3311 reversed in Thursday's London session, and the pair slid to the 1.3181 week low as the bond selloff lifted the dollar. Friday's NFP miss lifted it to the 1.3256 nfp high, but rallies have since printed lower highs. Monday's range sat inside Friday's, with the Asia dip and the ISM-time dip during NY hours both holding the 1.3190 monday low. Price is hugging a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 1.3220, just under the 38.2% retracement of the Wed-Thu drop and the 1.3239 weekly open, with RSI(14) pinned near 50 and ATR contracting.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3181, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3250, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3250 monday high and 1.3256 nfp high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes 1.3265
Failure to hold the 1.3190 monday low brings the 1.3181 week low back in play, then the 1.3140 ytd low
BoE's Mann (Tue 08:40 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman (13:05/14:45 UTC) could break the compression
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and US 10y yields near 5.34% remain the main USD drivers
Range 1.3181–1.3256, compressing below lower-high line.
Wednesday's 1.3311 high gave way to a slide to the 1.3181 recent low by Thursday. Friday's NFP miss sparked a NY session rebound to the 1.3256 friday high, which stalled near the 50% level of the wed-thu drop fib. Monday's range sat inside Friday's: dollar demand on French stress and 10y yields near 5.34% pushed price to the 1.3190 monday low twice, in Asia and again into the NY open, and both dips were bought. Each rally since Friday has produced a lower high, with Monday's recovery stalling at the 1.3239 weekly open, and price is now compressing near 1.3220 with RSI(14) near 48 and both EMAs flat at price.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3239 weekly open and the lower-high trendline breaks the sequence of lower highs and puts the 1.3256 friday high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3190 monday low after two tests exposes the 1.3181 recent low and the higher-lows trendline
BoE's Mann (Tue 08:40 UTC) is the main GBP risk; Fed's Williams and Bowman later Tuesday and the FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could shift the USD side of this range
Lower highs from 1.3256 against higher lows from 1.3181, compressing range.
Since Thursday's sell-off into the thursday low at 1.3181, GBP/USD has held a 1.3181–1.3256 box. The Wednesday-Thursday drop came from the 1.3311 wed high, and Friday's NFP-miss spike stalled at the 1.3256 nfp high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement. On Monday, two dips to the 1.3190 monday low in the Asia session and early NY hours were bought back, while the London-session monday high at 1.3239 capped the rebound. Price is now pinned at the flat EMA20/EMA50 cluster near 1.3220 with RSI(14) at 47, as US 10y yields at highs since 2002 offset the UK PMI beats.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3256, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3239 monday high and the lower-highs line puts the 1.3256 nfp high back in play; acceptance above that shifts focus to the 1.3311 wed high
Failure to hold the 1.3190 monday low exposes the 1.3181 thursday low; a close below it breaks the higher-lows line and the range floor
BoE's Mann speaks Tue 08:40 UTC; Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) follow and could materially shift this read
A further extension in US 10y yields keeps pressure on the range floor near 1.3181