21:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening · RSI 36 · price 1.32179
Lower highs from Aug peak; two-week base above 1.3181.
GBPUSD has been in a downtrend since the 1.3675 Aug 21 peak. The pair has made lower highs, and the six-week shelf with its sep floor at 1.3464 broke on Sep 16. Price now sits below both EMAs, and EMA(50) has rolled over. For the last two weeks the pair has consolidated between the 1.3181 swing low and the 1.3311 range top, despite UK GDP and PMI beats backing hawkish BoE talk, as US 10y yields at 2002 highs capped rebounds. Price has recovered less than a quarter of the Aug high to Oct low decline, still below the 1.3370 38.2% fib.
Support: 1.3181, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3311, 1.3370, 1.3464
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.3311 range top breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 1.3370 38.2% fib
- Recovery through the 1.3464 sep floor would neutralise the September range break
- Daily close below the 1.3181 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3140 june low
- FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) and BoE Greene/Lombardelli (Thu) could materially shift this read
- RSI holding mid-30s without reaching 30 leaves room for further downside before a meaningful oversold signal