The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke cable from the 1.3459 London high to a 1.3312 day low by 16:30 UTC. The late-NY bounce has stalled at the 1.3349 swing high, which sits near the 23.6% retracement of the CPI selloff fib. Early Asia trades just above the ema20 at 1.3346 after the rollover low at 1.3333 held, with RSI(14) at 50.5, ATR(14) compressed to 5.6 pips and the ema50 at 1.3363 overhead.
Support: 1.33457, 1.33334, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33494, 1.33625, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson remarks underway since 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read on any 50bp December signal
M15 close above the 1.3349 swing high exposes the ema50 at 1.3363 and the 38.2% fib near 1.3368, with the 1.3400 round number above
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 1.3333 rollover low breaks the recovery higher-low line and returns focus to the 1.3312 day low
23:31 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, basing in a tight range · RSI 49 · price 1.33481
Rebound from the 1.3312 CPI low capped near 1.3349; higher low at 1.3333 at the open of the Asia session.
The hot US CPI extended the London slide to a 1.3312 CPI low. Price has since held a 1.3333–1.3349 band, with the rollover dip to the 1.3333 swing low reclaimed. Price is pressing the range top at the 23.6% selloff fib, holding above the ema20 but below the ema50, with RSI(14) at 49 and ATR(14) compressing to 5.9 pips.
Support: 1.33454, 1.33334, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33494, 1.33631, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3349 range top opens the ema50 at 1.3363, then 1.3400 psych
Loss of the ema20 and the 1.3333 swing low breaks rising support and exposes the 1.3312 cpi low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speaking now; 50bp December hike endorsement could materially shift this read
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC is the next GBP-specific catalyst
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, bounce stalling in a tight range · RSI 49 · price 1.33479
Post-CPI low at 1.3312, sideways 1.3333–1.3349 range since late NY.
Waller's 50bp talk during London and the hot US core CPI at the NY open drove the slide from the 1.3459 London high to a 1.3312 NY low. The bounce has since parked in a 1.3333–1.3349 range, with the range top near the 23.6% fib of the CPI sell-off. Price is pressing the range top above the ema20 but below a falling ema50 at 1.3364. RSI(14) has recovered to 49 from the low 30s, and ATR(14) has compressed to 6.2 pips.
Support: 1.33451, 1.33334, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33494, 1.33637, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC: any endorsement of a 50bp December hike could reassert the downtrend
A close above the 1.3349 range top opens the ema50 at 1.3364 and the 38.2% CPI sell-off fib near 1.3368
Failure to hold the 1.3333 range low exposes the 1.3312 ny low
1.3400 round number sits above as the next cap if the bounce extends
Tight post-NY box 1.3335–1.3349 below EMAs, beneath the 1.3312 CPI low.
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC drove a ~110-pip slide in NY hours to the 1.3312 cpi low. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 1.3349 bounce high, and price has since compressed under the ema20 (1.3345) with ATR(14) down to 6 pips. RSI(14) sits at 36.8, and the 1.3335 late low is holding near the 38.2% of the bounce fib.
Support: 1.3335, 1.3312
Resistance: 1.33448, 1.33494, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the box during the Asia session open
M15 close above the 1.3349 bounce high and ema20 opens the 1.3400 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3335 late low exposes the 50–61.8% of the bounce fib and the 1.3312 cpi low
Lower high at 1.3349 after 1.3312 low; tight 1.3333–1.3349 box into NY close.
Cable fell about 147 pips from the 1.3459 London high after Waller's 50bp talk and the hot US core CPI, bottoming at the 1.3312 CPI low. The bounce stalled at the 1.3349 late NY high, short of the 38.2% of the CPI selloff fib. Price is boxed between the 1.3333 rollover low and that high, below the ema20 and ema50, with RSI at 39.9 and ATR compressed to 6.2 pips.
Support: 1.33334, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33454, 1.33494, 1.33654
What it said to watch
Bowman and Paulson speak in about 44 minutes (23:30 UTC); a 50bp-leaning tone could break the late-session box
M15 close below the 1.3333 rollover low reopens the 1.3312 CPI low
Close above the ema20 and the 1.3349 late NY high extends the retracement toward the ema50 at 1.3365
ATR at 6.2 pips and still compressing, so the Asia session range may stay narrow without a Fedspeak catalyst
Lower high at 1.3349 after the CPI low; post-NY range edging lower.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a 112-pip NY slide to the cpi low at 1.3312. The rebound stalled at the 1.3349 bounce high, below the 38.2% fib. Price sits under a flattening ema20 and a falling EMA50, and drifted to a 1.3333 rollover low in early Asia with RSI(14) at 37.1 and ATR(14) compressed to 6 pips.
Support: 1.33334, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33457, 1.33494
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the compressed range
M15 close below the 1.3333 rollover low exposes the 1.3312 cpi low
Recovery above the ema20 and the 1.3349 bounce high puts the 38.2% fib near 1.3355 back in play
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after the post-CPI slide · RSI 41 · price 1.33432
Tight 1.3342–1.3349 range under ema20 after a shallow NY bounce.
Hot US core CPI at 13:30 UTC drove a 110-pip slide from 1.3424 to the 1.3312 cpi low. The NY bounce stalled at the 1.3349 bounce high, short of the 38.2% fib at 1.3355. Price is now compressing above the 1.3342 range low and just under the ema20 into the Asia open, with ATR down to 5.7 pips and RSI at 40.7. The rollover low at 1.3333 was a wick only, and the bar closed back at 1.3344.
Support: 1.3342, 1.33334, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33462, 1.33494, 1.3355
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the current compression
M15 close above the ema20 and 1.3349 bounce high puts the 38.2% fib at 1.3355, then ema50 at 1.3367, in play
Close below the 1.3342 range low and the 1.3333 rollover low reopens the 1.3312 cpi low
UK GDP Thu 07:00 UTC is the next GBP-side catalyst
Post-CPI low at 1.3312, shallow higher-low recovery stalling near 23.6% retrace.
Cable topped at 1.3459 in London, slipped on Waller's 50bp talk, then broke below 1.34 on the hot US core CPI print and bottomed at the 1.3312 NY low. The recovery stalled at a 1.3349 bounce high, roughly the 23.6% retrace of the CPI selloff fib. Price is now pinned in a 1.3342–1.3349 range just under a flat ema20 at 1.3346, with ATR compressed to 5.3 pips and RSI(14) recovered from 21 to 41.
Support: 1.33416, 1.33252, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33494, 1.33683
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3349 bounce high opens the falling ema50 at 1.3368
Break of the 1.3342 range low and the recovery line puts the 1.3325 higher low and 1.3312 ny low back in play
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the late-NY compression
Post-CPI selloff to 1.3312, rebound stalling in a tight 1.3342–1.3349 range.
The hot US core CPI print (0.3% vs 0.2%) broke cable from 1.3424 to a NY low at 1.3312, extending the earlier Waller-driven slide off the 1.3459 London high. The rebound off the rising rebound line has stalled at a 1.3349 rebound high just above ema20. Price is now pinned in a 1.3342–1.3349 range low/high band late in NY hours, with RSI(14) back at 40 from 14 and ATR compressing to 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.33416, 1.33252, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33467, 1.33494, 1.33693
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3349 rebound high and ema20 extends the bounce toward ema50 near 1.3369
Break of the 1.3342 range low tests the rebound line near 1.3335–1.3325, then the 1.3312 NY low
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC (~104 min) could break the range in either direction
ATR at 5.5 pips signals compression into the Asia session
Post-CPI selloff, tight late-NY range below ema20.
Waller's 50bp talk broke cable from the 1.3459 day high in London, and hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) extended the drop to a 1.3312 session low in NY. RSI recovered from 8 to 42 on the bounce, but price has stalled in a 1.3342–1.3349 range just under the ema20 (1.3347) and the 23.6% fib of the day's drop. ATR has compressed to 5.8 pips into the late-NY lull, with the falling ema50 at 1.3370 overhead.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3325, 1.3312
Resistance: 1.3347, 1.3349, 1.3370
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3349 bounce high and ema20 opens the path to the ema50 near 1.3370
Break of the 1.3342 range low exposes the 1.3325 pivot low, then the 1.3312 session low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the Asia-open compression
Post-CPI selloff low at 1.3312, higher-low bounce now pausing under ema20.
Waller's 50bp talk at 09:00 UTC broke the London session high near 1.3459. The hot US core CPI at 13:30 UTC then drove cable to a 1.3312 session low, with RSI(14) recovering from single digits to 38.9. The NY-hours bounce stalled at the 1.3349 bounce high, near the 23.6% fib and just under the ema20, with ATR compressing to 5.8 pips.
Support: 1.3343, 1.3325, 1.3312
Resistance: 1.33472, 1.33494, 1.33714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 and the 1.3349 bounce high opens the ema50 at 1.3371, near the 38.2% fib
Loss of the 1.3343 recent lows breaks the recovery line and exposes the 1.3325 pullback low, then the 1.3312 session low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could reignite USD moves after CPI
Post-CPI lower low at 1.3312, higher-low recovery now compressing under ema20.
The hot US core CPI print drove the CPI leg from 1.3425 down to the 1.3312 NY low, with RSI(14) bottoming near 8. The late-NY bounce to 1.3349 is stalling under the ema20 at 1.3348 and is holding a 1.3343–1.3349 band. Price stays below both EMAs and ATR(14) has compressed to 6.2 pips.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3330, 1.3312
Resistance: 1.33476, 1.33494, 1.3355
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3342 micro low ends the late-NY consolidation; the 1.3330 swing low is next
Acceptance above the ema20 and the 1.3349 bounce high opens the 1.3355 friday low, near the CPI leg 38.2% fib
Loss of 1.3330 brings the 1.3312 NY low back into play
Fed's Paulson and Bowman speak in ~2.5h; 50bp talk could materially shift this read
Post-CPI low at 1.3312, shallow higher-low bounce stalling under the flat ema20.
Waller's 50bp hint at 09:00 UTC and the hot US core CPI at 13:30 UTC took cable from the 1.3459 London high to a 1.3312 cpi low. RSI(14) has recovered from 8.2 to 39.8, but the late-NY bounce stalled at a 1.3349 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib at 1.3355, with price below a flat ema20 (1.3348). ATR has compressed to 6.6 pips and the bounce trendline near 1.3345 is under test.
Support: 1.3341, 1.3325, 1.3312
Resistance: 1.3349, 1.3355, 1.3375
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 1.3355 would open the falling ema50 at 1.3375 and weaken the flag read
Break of the bounce trendline and the 1.3341 swing low exposes the 1.3325 pullback low, then the 1.3312 cpi low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC; any echo of Waller's 50bp case could resume the downtrend
Compressed 6.6-pip ATR suggests a thin late-NY tape, so a break of the 1.3341–1.3355 band may extend
Cable slid about 147 pips from the 1.3459 London high after Waller's 50bp talk and the hot US core CPI print, bottoming at the 1.3312 session low in NY hours with RSI(14) down to 8.2. The late-NY recovery line has a 1.3349 bounce high capped at the 23.6% retracement and just under the ema20 (1.3348). ATR has compressed from 10.5 to 6.6 pips as the bounce slows, with the ema50 (1.3375) above the fib 38.2 at 1.3368.
Support: 1.33427, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33494, 1.33682, 1.33749
What it said to watch
Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC; echoes of a 50bp December hike could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3349 bounce high and ema20 opens the path to the fib 38.2 at 1.3368 and the ema50 near 1.3375
Break below the 1.3343 pullback low and the recovery line puts the 1.3312 session low back in focus
Post-CPI lower low at 1.3312, corrective higher lows now testing ema20.
Cable gave up the London high near 1.3459 on Waller's 50bp talk, then dropped through 1.3400 on the hot US core CPI to a day low of 1.3312. The late-NY bounce stalled at 1.3349, just under ema20 and the fib 38.2 at 1.3355, and the 20:00 bar slipped below the recovery trendline to a 1.3343 pullback low. RSI(14) has recovered to 39 from single digits, and ATR(14) has compressed to 6.9 pips from 10.5.
Support: 1.33427, 1.3330, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33487, 1.3355, 1.33761
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC; any open backing of a 50bp December hike could reassert the CPI leg lower
A close above ema20 at 1.3349 reopens the fib 38.2 at 1.3355, with ema50 at 1.3376 above that
Losing the 1.3343 pullback low, then the 1.3330 swing low, unwinds the higher-low recovery and puts the 1.3312 day low back in focus
UK GDP on Thu 07:00 UTC is the next GBP-specific risk
Post-CPI lower-high sequence; late-NY higher-low recovery off 1.3312.
Waller at 09:00 UTC, then the hot US core CPI at 13:30 UTC, drove a 147-pip slide from the 1.3459 London high to the 1.3312 session low, with RSI(14) bottoming near 8. Late NY has since ground out a higher-low recovery that is stalling just under the ema20 (1.3349) and below the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg at 1.3355. ATR(14) has compressed to 7 pips.
Support: 1.33412, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33491, 1.3355, 1.33774
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read; any 50bp endorsement would extend the CPI-driven USD bid
M15 close above the ema20 and the 38.2% fib at 1.3355 opens the path to the ema50 near 1.3377
Failure to hold the 1.3341 higher low ends the recovery structure and puts the 1.3312 session low back in focus
Higher lows off the 1.3312 low, capped at the 23.6% fib.
Cable shed about 147 pips from the 1.3459 London high on Waller's 50bp hint and the hot US core CPI, bottoming at the 1.3312 session low in NY. Since then a steady higher-low bounce has lifted price to the 23.6% fib near 1.3346, just under the ema20 at 1.3349. RSI(14) has recovered to 39 from single digits and ATR has compressed to 7.2 pips.
Support: 1.3341, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33493, 1.3355, 1.33786
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.3349 opens the 1.3355 breakdown level, then the ema50 near 1.3379
Failure to hold the 1.3341 higher low and the rising trendline undoes the bounce, with the 1.3312 session low next
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, in 44 min, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 1.3312 swing low, pressing ema20.
Waller and the hot US core CPI print drove a slide of about 145 pips. It ran from the 1.3459 London high to a 1.3312 swing low during NY hours, with RSI(14) bottoming at 8.2. The late-NY recovery is a tight higher-low chain into the ema20 at 1.3350, just under the 1.3355 Friday low and the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg. ATR easing to 7.6 pips gives it a flag look within the downtrend.
Support: 1.3341, 1.3312
Resistance: 1.33496, 1.3355, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 and 1.3355 fri low/fib breaks the flag read and opens 1.3400 psych
Close below the 1.3341 higher low and flag support trendline ends the bounce structure, exposing the 1.3312 swing low
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~1h): an echo of Waller's 50bp talk could revive the USD bid
Post-CPI lower low at 1.3312, shallow higher-low bounce.
The hot US core CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the London range near 1.3420 and extended the NY sell-off to a 1.3312 session low, with RSI(14) bottoming at 8.2. The late-NY recovery is a grinding higher-low drift above the 23.6% fib. It is stalling at the 1.3344 bounce high, below the ema20 at 1.3350 and the 38.2% fib at 1.3355, while ATR has compressed to 7.8 pips.
Support: 1.33387, 1.33301, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33444, 1.3350, 1.33551
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 23.6% fib at 1.3339 and the 1.3330 higher low ends the bounce and puts the 1.3312 session low back in focus.
A close above the ema20 at 1.3350 and the 38.2% fib at 1.3355 extends the correction; rejection there keeps the downtrend structure intact.
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC: any endorsement of a 50bp December hike could reprice USD and break this narrow late-NY range.
Higher lows off 1.3312 swing low, capped below falling ema20.
Cable shed ~147 pips from the 1.3459 London high. Waller's 50bp talk cracked the pre-CPI range, and the hot US core CPI print extended the slide to a 1.3312 swing low. The bounce since 16:30 UTC has built higher lows into a 1.3344 bounce high, stalling just under the 23.6% fib and the falling ema20 at 1.3351, with RSI(14) back to 34.6 from single digits and ATR compressing to 8.2 pips.
Support: 1.3333, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33444, 1.33508, 1.3380
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.3351 opens the 1.3380 prior pivot from the CPI leg
Failure to hold the 1.3333 higher low breaks the bounce chain and puts the 1.3312 swing low back in play
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC: any 50bp endorsement could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; higher-low chain off the 1.3312 session low.
Waller's 50bp hint broke the Asian range in London. The hot US core CPI print (0.3% vs 0.2%) then extended the slide to a 1.3312 session low in NY. Since then, after London close, price has built a higher-low chain to a 1.3343 bounce high near the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) back at 35 from a sub-10 extreme, but it is still capped below the ema20 at 1.3352.
Support: 1.33252, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33432, 1.33518, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.3352 would extend the rebound toward the 1.3400 round number
A break of the 1.3325 higher low undercuts the rebound trendline and puts the session low at 1.3312 back in play
Rejection at the 1.3343 bounce high keeps the rebound shallow, below the 23.6% fib
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, especially any endorsement of a 50bp December hike, could materially shift this read
ATR(14) contracting to 8.5 pips from 10.5 as post-CPI volatility fades
Post-CPI lower highs and lows, higher lows off 1.3312 since 16:30 UTC.
The hot US core CPI print (0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 1.3422–1.3432 London range and ran cable 146 pips off the 1.3459 session high to a 1.3312 swing low during NY hours. RSI(14) has climbed from a single-digit low to 30.6 on a slow late-NY bounce with higher lows. Price sits just under the 23.6% fib of the CPI selloff, still below the ema20 at 1.3353.
Support: 1.33252, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33528, 1.3386, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.3353 marks the first reclaim since CPI and exposes the 1.3386 cpi shelf, then the 1.3400 round number
Break of the 1.3325 higher low undercuts the bounce-lows trendline and puts the 1.3312 swing low back in play
BoE's Pill speech now, then Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, could jolt the thin post-London range
ATR(14) at 8.7 pips, contracting from 10.5 after the CPI spike
Cable has shed about 145 pips from the 1.3459 London high. The hot US core CPI at 13:30 UTC (0.3% vs 0.2%) extended the slide to a 1.3312 session low. The late-NY bounce is printing rising lows up to a 1.3336 bounce high, still under ema20 at 1.3354, with RSI(14) at 28, up from single digits, and ATR easing to 9 pips.
Support: 1.3328, 1.3312, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3336, 1.33544, 1.3375
What it said to watch
BoE's Pill speaks at 18:30 UTC, in about 15 minutes, and could jolt the late-NY bounce.
An M15 close above ema20 at 1.3354 opens the 1.3375 prior shelf, where the post-CPI slide paused.
Failure of the rising lows near 1.3328 puts the 1.3312 session low and the 1.3300 round number back in play.
Fed's Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC and could revive USD demand on any talk of a 50bp hike.
Post-CPI lower-high chain; micro higher lows off 1.3312 session low.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) at 13:30 UTC broke cable out of its London range. That drove a 112-pip slide to a 1.3312 session low during NY hours, with RSI(14) bottoming at 8.2. The late-NY bounce is printing higher lows near 1.3325 as ATR eases to 9.2 pips, but price sits below both EMAs, and the ema20 at 1.3356 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg.
Support: 1.33252, 1.33121
Resistance: 1.33342, 1.33564, 1.3367
What it said to watch
BoE's Pill at 18:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3334 bounce high exposes the ema20 and 38.2% fib at 1.3356, then the 1.3367 lower high
Loss of the 1.3325 higher low and the bounce-lows trendline puts the 1.3312 session low back in play; a break there resumes the downtrend
Lower highs since CPI; small base above 1.3312 session low.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 1.3417-1.3460 London range, and NY hours extended the slide ~110 pips to a 1.3312 session low. The bounce is stalling near 1.3331 below the fib 23.6 at 1.3339. RSI(14) has lifted to 23.1 from a reading of 8.2 but is still oversold, price sits below the ema20 (1.3359) and ema50, and ATR has eased to 9.5 pips.
Support: 1.3312, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3339, 1.3359, 1.3390
What it said to watch
M15 close above the fib 23.6 at 1.3339 and then the ema20 at 1.3359 would extend the corrective bounce toward the 1.3390 cpi low
Break of the 1.3312 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3300 round number
BoE's Pill at 18:30 UTC (44 min) and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows since CPI; first higher low off the 1.3312 NY low.
The hot US core CPI print broke the 1.3422–1.3432 London range, and NY extended the slide about 112 pips to a 1.3312 ny low. The shallow bounce to the 1.3331 bounce high has lifted RSI(14) from 8.2 to 22.2, still oversold, while price stays well below the ema20 at 1.3362. The 1.3354 breakdown level sits on the 38.2% of the cpi leg fib, just under the ema20.
Support: 1.3312, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3331, 1.3354, 1.33619
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3331 bounce high would be the first sign the NY downtrend is stalling
Reclaim of the 1.3354 breakdown / cpi leg fib 38.2% would open the ema20 at 1.3362
Failure at the bounce high and a break of the 1.3312 ny low exposes the 1.3300 psych round number
BoE's Pill at 18:30 UTC, about 1h away, and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, first bounce off oversold low · RSI 21 · price 1.33276
Post-CPI range break, lower-high/lower-low chain intact.
The hot US core CPI print (0.3% vs 0.2%) at 13:30 UTC broke the 1.3418–1.3459 Asia/London range. Cable then slid about 110 pips one way through NY hours to a session low at 1.3312, with RSI(14) bottoming at 8.2. The first bounce after London close has lifted RSI to 21.1, still oversold, but price sits below both EMAs with the 1.3336 minor high capping. ATR(14) has expanded to 10.2 pips from 5.7 pre-CPI.
Support: 1.3312, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3336, 1.3355, 1.3365
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3336 minor high is the first break of the lower-high chain; the 38.2% fib at 1.3355 and the ema20 at 1.3365 sit just above.
Failure to hold the 1.3312 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3300 round number.
BoE's Pill at 18:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift this read, especially any Fed endorsement of a 50bp December hike.
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, deeply oversold, first bounce bar · RSI 14 · price 1.3321
One-way lower highs and lower lows since CPI; London range broken lower.
The hot US core CPI print (0.3% vs 0.2%) at 13:30 UTC broke the 1.3422–1.3432 London floor. NY then extended a one-way CPI selloff of about 110 pips to a 1.3312 session low, with price below both down-sloping EMAs and ema20 at 1.3369. RSI(14) at 14.4 is deeply oversold, up from 8.2 as the 16:45 bar posts the first bounce after London close, while ATR has expanded to 10.3 pips from under 6.
Support: 1.3312, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3336, 1.3354, 1.33692
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3336 lower high would be the first break of the NY lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.3312 session low exposes the 1.3300 round number
Acceptance back above the 1.3354 breakdown and ema20 at 1.3369 would undercut the post-CPI downtrend read
BoE's Pill at 18:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read, especially any 50bp December framing
Hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2% f/c) broke the 1.3422–1.3432 London range at 13:30 UTC. Selling has run through NY hours to a session low of 1.3312 with only shallow pauses. RSI(14) at 8.2 is extreme, ATR has expanded to 10.5 pips, and price sits well under a steeply falling ema20 at 1.3374.
Support: 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33304, 1.33743, 1.33902
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3300 round number extends the lower-low chain through the session low
Reclaim of the 1.3330 minor high would be the first break in the NY lower-high sequence; the cpi leg fib 50% at 1.3368 sits just under ema20
Recovery back above the 1.3390 cpi low would negate the post-CPI breakdown
BoE's Pill (18:30 UTC) and Fed's Bowman (20:30 UTC) could materially shift this read after London close
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, stretched · RSI 9 · price 1.3322
Post-CPI lower-high/lower-low chain, no base yet.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) at 13:30 UTC broke the 1.3422–1.3432 London range. Selling has run through NY to a 1.3320 session low, about 140 pips off the 1.3459 high set before Waller's 50bp remarks. RSI(14) at 8.9 is extreme, ATR has expanded from 5.7 to 10.4 pips, and price sits well below a steeply falling ema20 at 1.3381.
Support: 1.3320, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3350, 1.33805, 1.3390
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3320 session low exposes the 1.3300 round number
An M15 close back above broken support at 1.3350 (23.6% fib zone) would mark the first pause in the selloff
A reclaim of the ema20 near 1.3381 and the cpi bar low at 1.3390 would neutralise the post-CPI leg
BoE's Pill at 18:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift this read
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and still extending · RSI 10 · price 1.33274
Post-CPI lower highs and lower lows; London range broken, trading at session low.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) at 13:30 UTC broke the 1.3422–1.3430 London range. The NY session has since cut through the 1.3350 shelf to a session low at 1.3327, printing a chain of lower highs below a falling ema20 (1.3387). RSI(14) at 9.5 is deeply oversold, and ATR has expanded to 10.4 pips from about 6 before the print. That leaves late NY with stretched momentum and no bounce yet.
Support: 1.3327, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3351, 1.3377, 1.33866
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3327 session low puts the 1.3300 round number in play
M15 close back above the 1.3350 shelf would mark the first break in the post-CPI lower-high chain
Retracement into fib 38.2 at 1.3377 and the ema20 at 1.3387 is the area to watch for rejection or acceptance
BoE's Pill speaks at 18:30 UTC (~2h) and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC; either could shift this read
Post-CPI range break, unbroken lower highs into session low.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2% f/c) broke cable out of its London range at 13:30 UTC. The CPI selloff has run ~93 pips without a higher high, slicing through the 1.3350 breakdown level to a session low at 1.3331 into the London close. RSI(14) at 10.3 is deeply oversold, ATR(14) has expanded to 10.5 pips from under 6, and price sits well below the ema20 (1.3393) and ema50 (1.3415).
Support: 1.33313, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3350, 1.33928, 1.34244
What it said to watch
Holding below the 1.3350 breakdown level keeps the post-CPI lower-high sequence intact; a reclaim opens a retracement toward the ema20 at 1.3393
Failure to hold the 1.3331 session low exposes the 1.3300 round number
RSI(14) at 10.3: a stall here with RSI turning up would be the first loss of momentum in the CPI selloff
Recovery above the 1.3424 cpi spike level would fully erase the post-CPI move
BoE's Pill at 18:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high; post-CPI base broken.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the London range at 13:30 UTC. NY hours then pushed through the 1.3386-1.3390 cpi base and the 1.3366 break level to a 1.3351 session low, about 110 pips off the 1.3459 London high, a move that was already started by Waller's 50bp comments. RSI(14) at 13 is deeply oversold, ATR(14) has expanded to 9.6 pips, and price sits below both EMAs with ema20 at 1.3399.
Support: 1.3351
Resistance: 1.3366, 1.3389, 1.33989
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3351 session low extends the CPI selloff below the 1.3350 psych handle
Recovery back above the 1.3366 break level would mark the first pause in the lower-low chain
Retest of the 1.3389 cpi base / ema20 at 1.3399 is the area to watch for rejection or reclaim
RSI(14) at 13 leaves the move stretched into the London close
BoE's Pill at 18:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 13:30 UTC; London range low broken.
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core 0.3% vs 0.2% forecast) broke the London range low near 1.3417 and the 1.3400 handle. Since then the NY session has printed a clean chain of lower highs under a downtrend line, and price is pinned at the 1.3366 session low. RSI(14) at 15.7 is deeply oversold and ATR(14) has expanded to 9 pips from about 6; the 1.3374 prior low, the 1.3390 CPI-bar low and the ema20 at 1.3404 sit overhead.
Support: 1.33661, 1.3350
Resistance: 1.33739, 1.33902, 1.34037
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3374 prior low and the downtrend line would mark the first break of the post-CPI lower-high chain
A bounce stalling near the 38.2% of the CPI leg (~1.3388) would line up with the cpi low as a rejection area
A clean break of the 1.3366 session low leaves the 1.3350 round number as the next reference
A reclaim of the ema20 at 1.3404 and the 1.3400 handle would negate the breakdown read
BoE Pill at 18:30 UTC and Fed Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Waller high; post-Waller range broken lower on CPI.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 1.3422–1.3432 range that formed after Waller's 50bp talk, and the drop through the pre-CPI low at 1.3417 has printed lower lows to a 1.3381 session low in the first hours of NY. RSI(14) at 19.8 is oversold and ATR has expanded to 8.7 pips from 5.7. The 1.3400 round number and ema20 at 1.3415 sit overhead, with the lower highs line from the Waller high sitting just above.
Support: 1.33812
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34148, 1.34167
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3400 round number would end the post-CPI lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3381 session low extends the lower-low chain
Bounce capped below the 38.2% of the Waller-CPI drop (~1.3411) and ema20 keeps the downtrend read intact
Break of the lower highs trendline and a close back above the pre-cpi low at 1.3417 would neutralise the breakdown
BoE Pill at 18:30 GMT and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after CPI leg · RSI 22 · price 1.33905
Lower highs from London high; post-Waller range broken lower.
Waller's 50bp talk knocked GBPUSD off the 1.3459 London high, and the hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 1.3420s range down to a 1.3386 session low. Early NY is now holding just under the 1.3400 round number, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) oversold at 22.4 and ATR(14) expanded to 8.5 pips. Lower highs trendline intact.
Support: 1.33857
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34167, 1.34284
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3400 round number and the 1.3417 pre-cpi low breaks the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 1.3386 session low extends the post-CPI leg
Fib 50% of the London high to CPI low move sits near 1.3422; the ema50 at 1.3428 caps above it
BoE Pill (18:30 GMT, ~4h) and Fed Bowman (20:30 UTC, ~6h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London high; pre-CPI range broken below.
Waller's 50bp talk knocked GBPUSD off the 1.3459 London high, and the hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 1.3417–1.3432 pre-CPI range and the 1.3399 prior low, printing a CPI low at 1.3386. RSI(14) at 22.9 is oversold and ATR has expanded to 8.5 pips. Price sits below both EMAs, with ema20 at 1.3421 and lower highs intact.
Support: 1.33857
Resistance: 1.33989, 1.34167, 1.34206
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.3399 prior low and 1.3400 marks the CPI break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3386 CPI low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.3417 pre-CPI low and ema20 at 1.3421 breaks the lower highs line
BoE Pill at 18:30 GMT and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3459 London high; post-CPI break below 1.3400.
Hot US CPI (core MoM 0.3% vs 0.2%, headline 0.4% vs 0.3%) knocked GBPUSD through the 1.3400 round number and yesterday's 1.3399 low to a 1.3390 cpi low. This extends the lower-highs sequence from the 1.3459 London high, which started on Waller's 50bp hike comments. RSI(14) at 20.8 is deeply oversold, ATR has expanded to 8.2 pips and price sits below both EMAs, with the ema20 at 1.3424.
Support: 1.3390
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34167, 1.34235
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.3400 round number would mark the CPI move as a false break
M15 close below the 1.3390 cpi low extends the post-CPI leg into fresh lows
Recovery above the 1.3417 pre-cpi low and the ema20 at 1.3424 breaks the lower-highs line
BoE Pill speech 18:30 GMT and Fed's Bowman 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London high; London range floor and prior low broken.
Hot US CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 1.3422 London range floor and the 1.3399 prior low. The NY-open bar printed a 1.3390 cpi low, and the lower highs since Waller knocked GBPUSD off its 1.3459 London high are still intact. RSI(14) at 23.6 is oversold, ATR has expanded to 8 pips and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3390
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3417, 1.34268
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3400 prior low would turn the CPI break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3390 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 1.3417 pre-cpi low and the ema20 at 1.3427 is needed to break the lower-highs line
Core CPI YoY not yet in feed; BoE Pill at 18:30 GMT and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift the read
Lower highs from the 1.3459 London high; the CPI bar has broken the 1.3417–1.3432 base.
Lower highs have formed since the 1.3459 London high. Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks drove the first leg down. The still-forming US CPI bar has fallen about 30 pips, through the 1.3400 round number and yesterday's 1.3399 low, to a 1.3392 CPI low. Before the release, price was below the ema20 (1.3430) and the EMA50 with RSI(14) at 38. The 6-pip ATR understates the current bar, whose range is about five times that.
Support: 1.33919, 1.3350
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34167, 1.34297
What it said to watch
CPI bar closing back above the 1.3400 round number would mark a false break of the prior-day low
Failure to hold the 1.3392 CPI low leaves the 1.3350 area that the GBP digest flags for a hot CPI print
Recovery above the 1.3417 swing low and the ema20 near 1.3430 would break the lower-highs trendline
BoE Pill at 18:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC are follow-up risk to the post-CPI read
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 30 · price 1.34177
Break below 1.3422 range floor, new session low.
London's push above the Asian range to the 1.3459 london high reversed on Waller's hawkish remarks. That drop is now breaking below the 1.3422 range floor into a new session low near 1.3418. Price sits under a falling EMA20 (1.3430), which has crossed below the EMA50, and RSI(14) at 30.3 is near but not yet oversold.
Support: 1.3405, 1.3399
Resistance: 1.3422, 1.3430, 1.3459
What it said to watch
US CPI in 14 min could materially shift this read; ATR(14) of 5.9 pips will likely be overwhelmed
A M15 close back above the 1.3422 range floor and ema20 at 1.3430 turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3405 swing low exposes the 1.3399 monday low and the 1.3400 handle
Lower highs trendline from 1.3432 caps while intact; a close above 1.3459 london high negates the Waller drop fib
13:01 UTC
Downtrend since London, momentum flat ahead of CPI · RSI 33 · price 1.34221
Post-drop consolidation pressing range floor, lower highs below ema20.
London pushed above the Asian range to the 1.3459 london high, then Waller's hawkish warning at 09:00 UTC took the pair back through the Asian low at 1.3432. Since then it has held a tight 1.3421–1.3432 band below a falling ema20. The 12:45 bar printed a marginal new session low, with RSI(14) at 33.1, not oversold, and ATR at 5.9 pips.
Support: 1.34211, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.34316, 1.34355, 1.3459
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, with ADP at 13:15, could break the 1.3421–1.3432 band either way. ATR of 5.9 pips will likely understate the move.
An M15 close below the 1.3421 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3400 round number.
A reclaim of the ema20 at 1.3432 and the ema50 at 1.3436 would break the lower highs and neutralise the post-Waller drop.
On the london drop fib, the 50% retracement at about 1.3440 sits just above the ema50.
12:46 UTC
Downtrend since Waller drop, now flat and compressing · RSI 39 · price 1.34277
Tight 10-pip range below broken Asian low after London reversal.
Waller's warning of a larger hike hit GBP/USD at 09:00 UTC, knocking it off the 1.3459 London session high and through the Asian range low, before the drop stalled at the 1.3422 session low. Since then price has held a 10-pip consolidation between 1.3422 and the 1.3432 range top, below both EMAs, with RSI at 38.9 and ATR compressing to 5.7 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.3422, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3432, 1.3436, 1.3459
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (in about 44 min), with ADP 15 min earlier, is likely to resolve the 1.3422–1.3432 range. The 5.7-pip ATR understates the event risk.
An M15 close below the 1.3422 session low opens the 1.3400 psych level.
A reclaim of the 1.3432 range top and the ema50 at 1.3436 would bring the 61.8% of the Waller drop fib (~1.3445) and the 1.3459 session high back into view.
Asian range broken lower; tight 1.3422–1.3432 box below both EMAs.
Waller's hawkish remarks at 09:00 UTC knocked GBPUSD off the 1.3459 London session high and through the Asian range low near 1.3432. Since then price has sat in a 10-pip box between the 1.3422 session low and the 1.3432 range top, capped below the ema20 (1.3433) and ema50 (1.3436). RSI(14) has recovered from 29 to 38.5 and ATR(14) has eased to 5.7 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.34219, 1.33989
Resistance: 1.3432, 1.34364, 1.3459
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~60 min) can materially shift this read; ADP 4-week average due 12:45 UTC
M15 close above the 1.3432 range top and the ema50 at 1.3436 negates the post-Waller downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3422 session low exposes the 1.3400 area and the Monday low at 1.3399
Recovery toward the session high at 1.3459 would retrace most of the Waller drop fib
12:16 UTC
Downtrend since London open, basing below EMAs · RSI 41 · price 1.3429
Asian range broken lower; tight base above session low.
London lifted GBP/USD to a session high at 1.3459, then Waller's hawkish warning on a larger December hike drove a 24-pip bar through the Asian low to a session low at 1.3422. Since then price has based in a 10-pip band capped near the Asian low at 1.3432 and below the ema20 (1.3434). RSI(14) has recovered from 29 to 40.8 and ATR is compressing into US CPI.
Support: 1.3422, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3432, 1.3434, 1.3459
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~74 min) could materially shift this read
BoE Lombardelli at 12:30 UTC is a nearer GBP risk
M15 close above the Asian low and ema20 near 1.3432–1.3434 reopens the 38.2% retrace of the Waller drop
Failure to hold the 1.3422 session low exposes the 1.3400 round number
12:01 UTC
Downtrend since London high, compressing · RSI 34 · price 1.34243
Broke below Asian range; lower highs pressing on session low.
Waller's hawkish remarks at 09:00 UTC triggered the Waller drop from the 1.3459 London session high, taking price through the 1.3432 Asian low. Since then it has compressed in a 10-pip band above the 1.3422 session low, below both EMAs with a run of lower highs. RSI(14) is 33.6 after a brief dip under 30, and ATR(14) has eased to 5.7 pips.
Support: 1.3422, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3432, 1.34344, 1.3459
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3422 session low opens the 1.3400 round number
M15 close back above the 1.3432 Asian low and ema20 (1.3434) breaks the lower-highs line
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Lombardelli speaks at 12:30 UTC
Retrace into 1.3436–1.3440 (38–50% of the Waller drop) is the area to monitor for rejection
11:46 UTC
Downtrend after Waller drop, now basing · RSI 35 · price 1.34262
Lower highs below Asian range, holding 61.8% fib.
Waller's hawkish remarks at 09:00 UTC knocked GBP/USD from the 1.3459 London session high through the Asian low near 1.3432. The slide stalled at the 1.3422 swing low, the 61.8% fib of Monday's rally. Price has since held a tight 10-pip range below the ema20, with RSI(14) lifting from 29 to 34.6 and ATR compressing to 5.9 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.3422, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3432, 1.34354, 1.3459
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; ATR is compressed into the release
An M15 close below the 1.3422 swing low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes 1.3400 psych and Monday's low
A close back above the 1.3432 Asian low and the lower highs line negates the post-Waller pullback structure, with the ema20 at 1.3435 next
BoE's Lombardelli at 12:30 UTC could move GBP before CPI
Asian range broken lower, tight 1.3422–1.3432 consolidation with lower highs.
Waller's hawkish remarks at 09:00 UTC took GBPUSD from the 1.3459 London session high through the Asian low at 1.3432 to a waller low of 1.3422. Since then it has held a 10-pip box under the ema20 (1.3436) with lower highs. RSI(14) has lifted from 29 to 35.7 and ATR(14) has widened to 6.1 pips from 4.2.
Support: 1.3422, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3432, 1.34363, 1.34587
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3432 asian low and the ema20 at 1.3436 would break the lower-highs sequence
A failure to hold the 1.3422 waller low exposes the 1.3400 round number, near Monday's 1.3399 low
The 50% retracement of the Waller drop near 1.3440 caps the bounce while price stays below it
Lombardelli at 12:30 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Broke below the Asian range, lower highs capping a tight 1.3422–1.3432 band.
Waller's hawkish remarks hit GBP about an hour after the London session high at 1.3459, breaking the Asian low near 1.3432 and printing a session low at 1.3422. Price has since held a tight band under the broken Asian low, with lower highs and both EMAs above. RSI(14) has recovered to 38 from 29, and ATR has expanded to 6.2 pips from about 4.
Support: 1.3422, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3432, 1.34373, 1.34587
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read; Lombardelli at 12:30 UTC comes first
An M15 close back above the 1.3432 Asian low and the ema20 at 1.3437 would put price back inside the Asian range and break the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 1.3422 session low exposes the 1.3400 round number
The 1.3440 area (38.2% of the Waller drop fib) and the 1.3459 session high mark the upper retracement zone
Asian range broken lower, lower high capped under 1.3432.
Waller's hike warning at 09:00 UTC knocked GBP/USD 24 pips off the 1.3459 London session high. Price broke the Asian low at 1.3432 and found a floor at the 1.3422 Waller low. The bounce stalled at 1.3431 as a retest of the broken Asian low from below. Price sits under both EMAs after a fresh ema20/ema50 cross. RSI(14) is at 35.9, off a 29.3 trough, and ATR(14) has expanded to 6.3 pips from 4.3.
Support: 1.3422, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3432, 1.34387, 1.34587
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3432 Asian low and the 1.3439 ema50 cluster negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.3422 Waller low exposes the 1.3400 round number, where yesterday's NY low sits
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
BoE Lombardelli at 12:30 UTC is a secondary risk
Recovery through the 1.3459 session high would erase the post-Waller drop
Asian range broken lower; retest of asian low from below.
Waller's hike warning at 09:00 UTC knocked GBPUSD off the 1.3459 london high, breaking the 1.3432–1.3454 Asian range and printing a 1.3422 session low. RSI(14) has recovered to 37.5 from just under 30, and price is now retesting the broken asian low from below. ATR has expanded to 6.4 pips, with both EMAs flattening above near 1.3439, close to the 50% level of the Waller drop fib.
Support: 1.3422, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3432, 1.34391, 1.34587
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3432 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure at the ema20 near 1.3439, the Waller drop fib 50% zone, keeps the lower-high sequence intact
A break of the 1.3422 session low exposes the 1.3400 round number, which held as Monday's low
Lombardelli at 12:30 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC in ~2h45m, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, basing above session low.
Waller's hike warning at 09:00 UTC knocked GBP/USD from the London high at 1.3459. Price broke through the Asian low at 1.3432 to a session low of 1.3422, with ATR(14) expanding to 6.4 pips and RSI(14) briefly dipping to 29.3. Price is now basing at 1.3422–1.3429, below the ema20 and ema50 near 1.3440, which also marks the 50% fib of the drop.
Support: 1.3422, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.34317, 1.34401, 1.34587
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3432 Asian low puts the ema20 / 50% fib zone near 1.3440 back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3422 session low exposes the 1.3400 round number and yesterday's 1.3399 low
BoE's Lombardelli at 12:30 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London reversal · RSI 31 · price 1.34244
Asian range broken lower, lower high capped under ema20, session low being tested.
London reversed the whole Asian range. A 24-pip drop at 09:00 UTC, in the window of Fed Waller's speech, came off the 1.3459 session high, broke the Asian low at 1.3432 and has extended to a 1.3422 session low, with price now below ema20 (1.34415) and EMA50 (1.34401). RSI(14) sits at 30.5 after a brief dip under 30, and ATR(14) has expanded to 6.6 pips from about 4; yesterday's prior low near 1.3400 is the next reference below.
Support: 1.3422, 1.3399
Resistance: 1.3432, 1.34415, 1.3459
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3432 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3422 session low exposes yesterday's prior low near 1.3399
Rebounds stalling at ema20 / 38.2–50% fib (~1.3436–1.3440) keep the lower-high sequence intact
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Lombardelli speaks at 12:30 UTC
10:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London reversal · RSI 29 · price 1.34273
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since session high.
London set a session high at 1.3459. The 09:00 UTC bar, which coincided with Fed's Waller speech, then dropped about 24 pips through the Asian low at 1.3432. Price sits below both EMAs, RSI(14) is oversold at 29.3 and ATR has expanded to 6.7 pips from under 4, with the session low at 1.3422 and yesterday's swing low near 1.3418 now in play.
Support: 1.3422, 1.3418, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3432, 1.34407, 1.34587
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.3432 undercuts the range break read; ema50 at 1.34407 caps above that
Failure to hold 1.3418 swing low exposes the 1.3400 round number
US CPI at 13:30 UTC and BoE Lombardelli at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery to the 50% retracement of the selloff fib (~1.3440) would put the session high at 1.3459 back in view
09:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London reversal · RSI 31 · price 1.3427
Asian range broken lower, lower low printed.
London faded from a 1.3459 session high and the 09:00 UTC bar dropped 24 pips as Waller spoke, taking out the Asian low at 1.3432 and the overnight rollover low. Price at 1.3427 sits below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 31.3 and ATR up to 6.8 pips from 3.7, now testing yesterday's NY base near 1.3425 with the London drop only lightly retraced.
Support: 1.3425, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3432, 1.3441, 1.3459
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3432 asian low would turn the break into a false break, with the ema50 at 1.3441 next above
Failure to hold the 1.3425 ny base exposes the 1.3400 round number
RSI(14) below 30 would put the London drop into oversold territory
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h45m) could materially shift this read; a soft print would put the 1.3459 session high back in focus
BoE Lombardelli at 12:30 UTC is a secondary GBP headline risk
09:31 UTC
Intraday down-leg below both EMAs, ATR expanding · RSI 34 · price 1.3432
Asian range break lower; bounce rejected at 38.2% fib.
London's push to a 1.3459 session high reversed on the 09:00 UTC bar, coinciding with Waller's remarks. That bar broke below the Asian range low near 1.3432 and tagged the 1.3429 swing low, and the follow-up bounce stalled at 1.3441, the 38.2% of the drop just under ema50. RSI(14) is 34, ATR has jumped to 6.8 pips from under 4, and price sits below both EMAs with ema20 rolling over.
Support: 1.3429, 1.3422, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.34419, 1.34469, 1.34587
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3429 swing low extends the range break toward the prior base at 1.3422 and the 1.3400 round number
A reclaim of ema50 at 1.3442 and the 38.2% drop fib negates the rejection, with ema20 at 1.3447 next and the session high at 1.3459 above
BoE Lombardelli at 12:30 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London extended the overnight grind to a 1.3459 london high, then a 24-pip drop on the bar of Fed's Waller remarks erased the Asian range and printed a 1.3430 session low at the Asian range floor. Price now sits below both the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 34.8 and ATR(14) up to 6.5 pips from about 4 earlier in the session.
Support: 1.3430, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.34423, 1.34485, 1.34587
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3430 session low breaks the Asian range and opens the 1.3400 round number, yesterday's low area
Reclaim of the ema50 at 1.3442 would frame the drop as a one-bar spike back into the Asian range
Fib retracement of the London drop: the 50–61.8% zone sits near the ema20 at 1.3445–1.3449
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; BoE's Lombardelli at 12:30 UTC first
HL chain from the Asian low broken; forming bar sliced through the rising trendline.
Higher lows from the Asian low at 1.3432 carried GBPUSD to a London session high at 1.3459, with USD softness on Iran-deal hopes behind the move. The 09:00 UTC bar, timed with Waller's speech, has dropped about 17 pips, more than 3x the 5.1-pip ATR, to a spike low at 1.3437. It has broken the rising trendline and retraced past the 61.8% of the Asia-London leg. The last closed bar still held above the ema20 (1.3450) and the ema50 (1.3443).
Support: 1.34367, 1.34317, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.34502, 1.34587
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the ema50 at 1.3443 would confirm the rising trendline break and the end of the HL chain
Failure to hold the spike low at 1.3437 exposes the Asian low at 1.3432, then the 1.3400 round number
A recovery back above the ema20 at 1.3450 would frame the drop as a rejection wick inside the uptrend
Session high at 1.3459 is the cap that needs clearing to resume the HH sequence
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (headline f/c 3.9% y/y, core 2.8%) is likely to override this intraday read
London broke above the Asian range high near 1.3453 and printed a session high at 1.3459. Dips have stalled twice at the 1.3449 london low, where the rising trendline off the 1.3429 asian low meets ema20, as a softer USD keeps GBP firm into CPI. RSI(14) 59 is not stretched, and ATR has expanded to 5.1 pips from 3.7 overnight.
Support: 1.3449, 1.34422, 1.34285
Resistance: 1.34587, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.3449 london low breaks the rising trendline and exposes ema50 at 1.3442
Close above 1.3459 session high opens the path toward the 1.3500 round number
Loss of the 1.3429 asian low would unwind the overnight higher-low chain
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the 1.3432 Asian low; London retesting its session high.
Cable has printed higher lows since the 1.3432 Asian low on broad USD softness. London open extended to 1.3458, and the dip to the 1.3449 london low held on the rising trendline near the ema20. Price is now retesting the london high, with RSI(14) at 61.9 and ATR(14) expanded to 5 pips from 3.7.
Support: 1.3449, 1.34417, 1.3432
Resistance: 1.3458, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3458 london high opens the path toward the 1.3500 round number
Close below the 1.3449 london low and rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the ema50 near 1.3442
Loss of 1.3432 asian low would negate the overnight uptrend
Fed's Waller speaks in ~30 min, and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian range high, now retesting it.
Cable has built higher lows off the 1.3432 asian low on broad USD softness. Early in the London session price cleared the Asian range high near 1.3453 and was capped at the 1.3458 london high. Price is now holding the 1.3449 london low, above both EMAs, with ATR(14) widening to 4.9 pips.
Support: 1.3449, 1.34411, 1.3432
Resistance: 1.3458, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3449 london low and the rising trendline puts price back inside the Asian range.
Loss of the ema50 at 1.3441 and the 50% fib near 1.3443 breaks the higher-low chain.
Close above the 1.3458 london high opens the 1.3500 psych level.
BoE's Breeden in 14m and Fed's Waller in 44m; US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
HH/HL chain from the Asia low; London retesting broken Asian high.
Cable has built higher lows since the early-Asia 1.3432 base on broad USD softness. The London open broke the Asian high near 1.3454 and printed a session high at 1.3458, then slipped back to retest the break, holding above the rising ema20. RSI(14) at 58 is cooling from 66, and ATR(14) has expanded to 4.7 pips from 3.7.
Support: 1.34483, 1.3446, 1.34407
Resistance: 1.34579, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3446 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the ema50 at 1.3441
Close above the 1.3458 session high extends the breakout; 1.3500 psych is the next reference
BoE Breeden in ~30 min and Fed Waller in ~1h can jolt the London range
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range break higher, retesting the range top.
A higher-low trendline from the 1.3432 Asian low carried price through the Asian high at 1.3454 ahead of the London open, setting a session high at 1.3458. Price now sits on that former range top, above a rising ema20 (1.3448). RSI(14) is 65.8 and ATR(14) a tight 4.5 pips. The move extends Monday's rally from 1.3399 as USD stays soft into US CPI.
Support: 1.3454, 1.34479, 1.3432
Resistance: 1.3458, 1.3463, 1.3500
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.3454 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
A break of the higher-low trendline and the ema20 near 1.3448 exposes the 1.3432 Asian low
Clearing the 1.3458 session high puts the 1.3463 post-BoE peak and the 1.3500 round number in play
BoE's Breeden at 08:30 UTC and Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could jolt the low-ATR tape
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 1.3438 capped by a 1.3454 session high.
Asia session carried GBPUSD to a 1.3454 session high on higher lows off the 1.3438 swing low, extending Monday's USD-weakness rally from the 1.3399 NY low. Ahead of London open, price is holding the ema20 at 1.3446 with highs flattening just under the session high. RSI(14) at 58.9 and ATR(14) at 4.3 pips point to a quiet, unstretched tape.
Support: 1.34463, 1.34376, 1.34317
Resistance: 1.34535, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3454 session high opens the 1.3500 round number
Close below the ema20 and the higher-low trendline near 1.3446 breaks the Asia chain; the 1.3438 swing low is then exposed
Loss of the 1.3432 asian low would undo the overnight advance
BoE Breeden (08:30 UTC) and Fed Waller (09:00 UTC) could jolt the pre-CPI range
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows through Asia, pressing the Asian high into London open.
A chain of higher lows from the 1.3432 asian low lifted GBPUSD to the 1.3454 asian high into London open. Overnight USD softness on Iran de-escalation headlines is behind the grind. Price holds above the ema20 at 1.3446, with RSI(14) at 55.4 and ATR compressed near 4.2 pips.
Support: 1.34458, 1.34438, 1.34317
Resistance: 1.34535, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 1.3454 extends the higher-high chain toward the 1.3500 round number
Break below the 1.3444 higher low and the ema20 cuts the Asia trendline
Loss of the asian low at 1.3432 reverses the overnight structure
BoE Breeden at 08:30 and Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC; US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
GBPUSD has held Monday's USD-driven lift from the 1.3399 NY low, which came on the Iran de-escalation headlines. Late Asia shows a higher-low chain off the 1.34317 Asian low, with price sitting just under the 1.34535 Asian high ahead of London open. Price holds above a rising ema20 at 1.34456, with the 05:15 UTC swing low at 1.34438 just below. RSI(14) is at 58 and ATR(14) has compressed to 4.2 pips, so the grind higher is not stretched.
Support: 1.34456, 1.34438, 1.34317
Resistance: 1.34535, 1.3500
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.34438 swing low and the asia trendline would break the Asian higher-low chain.
Acceptance above the 1.34535 Asian high opens the path toward 1.3500 psych.
BoE Breeden speaks at 08:30 UTC and Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC, early in the London session.
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 2.8%) could materially shift this read during NY hours.
Higher-low chain through Asia, probe above Asian high.
Monday's USD softness on Iran de-escalation carried into a steady Asia grind of higher lows from the 1.3432 asian low, along a higher-low trendline. A probe to the 1.3454 session high, just above the Asian range top, pulled back to 1.3449 ahead of London open. Price holds above both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 57.6 and ATR(14) at 4.3 pips, compressed into US CPI.
Support: 1.34438, 1.34377, 1.34317
Resistance: 1.34535, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3444 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes ema50 at 1.3438
Acceptance above the 1.3454 session high puts the 1.3500 round number in play
Loss of the 1.3432 asian low invalidates the uptrend read
BoE's Breeden (08:30 UTC) and Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) could shift the read before US CPI at 13:30 UTC
06:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into London open · RSI 63 · price 1.34498
Higher-low chain through Asia, fresh session high at 1.3454.
Asia session extended Monday's late-NY break above 1.3420, with higher lows from the 1.3429 Asia low up to a fresh session high at 1.3454 on broad USD softness ahead of US CPI. Price holds above the ema20 (1.3445) and ema50 (1.3437), while ATR(14) has compressed to 4.3 pips and RSI(14) sits at 63, not stretched, going into London open.
Support: 1.34449, 1.34376, 1.34285
Resistance: 1.34535, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3438 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the Asia uptrend read
Session high at 1.3454 is the area to watch for rejection or break into London open; 1.3500 round number sits above
Asia low at 1.3429 is the floor of the overnight structure
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (headline f/c 3.9%, core 2.8%) could materially shift this read; Breeden 08:30 and Waller 09:00 GMT are earlier risks
Higher lows through Asia, compressing under 1.3451.
GBP/USD extended Monday's USD-softening rally from the 1.3399 NY low, with the Asian session carving higher lows at 1.3432 and 1.3438 before a probe to the 1.3451 Asian high met a quick rejection. Price is holding just above the rising ema20 into the London open, with RSI(14) neutral at 55 and ATR(14) compressed at 4 pips.
Support: 1.34441, 1.34376, 1.34317
Resistance: 1.3451, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3451 asian high opens the path to the 1.3500 psych level
Loss of the ema20 and the 1.3438 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline
Failure to hold the 1.3432 asian low confirms a lower-low and ends the Asia uptrend structure
BoE's Breeden (08:30 UTC) and Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) speeches could shift this read early in London
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) is the main volatility risk for the session
Higher-low chain through Asia, stalling under session high.
Late in the Asia session, GBP/USD has built higher lows off the 1.3429 rollover dip and a 1.3438 swing low. The Monday-evening breakout through 1.3426, on a softer USD as Iran fears eased, is still intact, but price was rejected at the 1.3451 session high and now sits on the Asia trendline. The Asia low at 1.3432 lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally.
Support: 1.3438, 1.3432, 1.3426
Resistance: 1.3451, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close below the Asia trendline and the 1.3438 swing low exposes the 1.3432 asia low and the 38.2% NY rally fib
Loss of 1.3426 would undo the breakout from Monday evening
M15 close above the 1.3451 session high reopens the path toward the 1.3500 round number
London open, with BoE's Breeden at 08:30 UTC and Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, could test the Asian range
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows through Asia, fresh break above the overnight high.
Late Asia session: GBPUSD has built a chain of higher lows off the 1.3432 asian low and broken the 1.3446 high, now the broken high, to print 1.3451 before London open. The Asian leg tracks broad USD softness on Iran/oil relief, with RSI(14) near 64, not stretched, and ATR(14) about 3.5 pips; the 1.3463 prior high and the 1.3500 round number sit above.
Support: 1.3446, 1.3438, 1.3432
Resistance: 1.3463, 1.3500
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3446 broken high turns the breakout into a false break
M15 close below the 1.3438 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.3463 prior high opens the 1.3500 round number
Breeden (08:30 UTC) and Waller (09:00 UTC) speeches could shift this read before London is fully underway
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.3429, pressing the Asia high at 1.3450.
Late Asia session: GBP/USD has stepped up from the 1.3429 Asia low in a higher-low chain and is now pressing the 1.3450 Asia high. This extends Monday's recovery from the 1.3399 NY low as USD softened on US-Iran peace headlines. Momentum is thin, with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR(14) around 3 pips, and the 1.3463 prior high sits just above.
Support: 1.34418, 1.34376, 1.34285
Resistance: 1.34499, 1.3463, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3450 Asia high opens the 1.3463 prior high, then the 1.3500 last wk high
Break of the 1.3442 higher low, then the 1.3438 swing low (61.8% of the Asia leg fib), would end the higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.3429 Asia low returns focus to the 1.3399 NY low
London open, BoE Breeden (08:30 UTC) and Waller (09:00 UTC) can expand the Asian range
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, slow grind higher in late Asia · RSI 65 · price 1.3448
Higher-low chain in the Asian range, testing the range top.
Late Asia session, price is edging above the 1.3446 asia cap after three tests, with a rising trendline of higher lows from the 1.3432 asian low still intact and RSI(14) near 65. Monday's USD-weak, Iran-relief leg from the 1.3399 NY low is holding, and the 1.3450 psych level and 1.3463 prior high sit directly overhead.
Support: 1.3446, 1.3432, 1.3399
Resistance: 1.3450, 1.3463
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below 1.3446 would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.3432 asian low breaks the higher-low chain
An M15 close above the 1.3463 prior high clears the 1.3450 psych cap
BoE Breeden (08:30 UTC) and Fed Waller (09:00 UTC) land in early London
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under Asian high · RSI 59 · price 1.34461
Rising lows pressing a flat 1.3446 cap.
Monday's NY recovery from the 1.3399 ny swing low, helped by USD softness on Iran headlines and Bailey's constructive tone, carried GBPUSD to 1.3446. The Asian session has printed a chain of rising lows at 1.3432, 1.3438 and 1.3442 into a flat Asian high at 1.3446, now tested three times, with ATR(14) near 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.34418, 1.34317, 1.33986
Resistance: 1.34462, 1.3463, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3446 Asian high opens the 1.3463 prior high and the 1.3500 round number
Loss of the 1.3442 rising low and the trendline brings the 1.3432 Asian low back into view
BoE Breeden at 08:30 UTC and Waller at 09:00 UTC could expand the range at the London open
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk to this read; a hot print has 1.3400 in focus per the digest
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at asian high · RSI 56 · price 1.34441
Higher lows from 1.3399 NY low, tight Asian range capped at 1.3446.
The leg up from the 1.3399 NY low accelerated late in NY hours as US-Iran de-escalation weighed on USD. Asia is now compressing beneath the 1.3446 asian high, which has capped three tests, while the 1.3438 swing low holds. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and ATR is only about 3 pips, so the range is tight.
Support: 1.34376, 1.34317, 1.3428
Resistance: 1.34462, 1.3463
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3446 asian high opens the 1.3463 prior high
Break of the 1.3438 swing low puts the 1.3432 asian low back in play
Loss of the asian low exposes the 1.3428 fib 38.2 of the NY low to asian high move, near the rollover low
BoE Breeden (08:30 UTC) and Fed Waller (09:00 UTC) could break the Asian range at London open
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into Asian range top · RSI 62 · price 1.3445
Higher lows from 1.3399 NY low; Asian range 1.3432–1.3446 capped three times at the top.
Broad USD weakness on Monday's US-Iran de-escalation lifted GBPUSD off the 1.3399 NY low. Demand returned after Bailey's late-NY remarks, and the climb has since stalled at the 1.3446 asian high, capped three times inside a tight 1.3432–1.3446 Asia range. Higher lows hold along the rising trendline, with the latest at 1.3438. RSI(14) sits near 62 with no extreme, and ATR has compressed under 4 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.3438, 1.3432, 1.3399
Resistance: 1.3446, 1.3463
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3446 asian high opens the path to the 1.3463 prior high
Break below the 1.3438 higher low and 1.3432 asian low would test the rising trendline and the 61.8% fib of the NY low-Asia high move
Loss of the 1.3399 ny low would undo the post-NY recovery structure
BoE Breeden (08:30 UTC) and Fed Waller (09:00 UTC) can shift the London open read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk to the range
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, compressing in late Asia · RSI 57 · price 1.34431
Rising lows under a flat 1.3446 Asian high.
Late Asia, about 3h before London open: price is holding 1.3432–1.3446 after the USD-weakness recovery from the 1.3399 NY low. The 1.3446 Asian high has capped four tests while the rising lows step up to 1.3438. RSI(14) is near 57 and ATR is only about 4 pips, with the 1.3450 round number sitting just above.
Support: 1.34376, 1.34317, 1.33986
Resistance: 1.34462, 1.3450
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3446 asian high and the 1.3450 round number breaks the flat cap
Close below the 1.3438 higher low and the 1.3432 asian low breaks the rising lows; the 1.3399 ny low is the deeper pivot
BoE Breeden (08:30 UTC) and Fed Waller (09:00 UTC) could jolt the compression ahead of US CPI at 13:30 UTC, which could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 60 · price 1.34454
Monday's USD-weak leg on US-Iran de-escalation lifted the pair from the 1.3399 NY low to 1.3442. Late in the Asia session it is pinned under the 1.3446 session high, capped three times, while rising Asian lows at 1.3432 and the 1.3438 swing low keep the range tight. ATR(14) has compressed to about 4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.34376, 1.34317, 1.3428
Resistance: 1.34462, 1.3463
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3446 session high opens the 1.3463 prior high
Loss of the 1.3438 swing low breaks the rising Asian lows and exposes the 1.3432 asian low
Below 1.3432, the fib 38.2 at 1.3428 (rollover low) is next
BoE Breeden 08:30 and Fed Waller 09:00 UTC in early London
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under session high · RSI 61 · price 1.34458
Higher lows pressing a flat top at 1.3446 in late Asia.
Monday's London leg from 1.3390 and a late-NY spike, tracking broad USD weakness on Iran de-escalation, carried GBPUSD to 1.3446. That Asian high has now capped three tests while higher lows at 1.3429, 1.3432 and 1.3438 compress price along a rising trendline beneath it. RSI(14) sits near 61, not stretched.
Support: 1.34376, 1.34285, 1.33986
Resistance: 1.34461, 1.3463, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3446 asian high opens the path to the 1.3463 prior high, then the 1.3500 round number
Break of the 1.3438 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.3429 asian low
Loss of the 1.3399 ny low would unwind Monday's intraday recovery structure
BoE Breeden 08:30 UTC and Fed Waller 09:00 UTC in London hours; US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows in Asia session range under 1.3446 session high.
GBP/USD is pressing the 1.3446 session high late in the Asia session. The Asian low at 1.3432 and the 1.3438 higher low are tightening the range under the 1.3450 cap, and the trendline joining them is intact. That structure follows Monday's NY rebound from the 1.3399 NY low on a softer USD, with RSI(14) at 58 and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.34376, 1.34317, 1.33986
Resistance: 1.34461, 1.3463
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3446 session high opens the 1.3463 prior high
Break of the Asian trendline and 1.3438 higher low returns focus to the 1.3432 Asian low, near the 38.2% retracement of the NY low to session high leg
Failure to hold the 1.3399 NY low would unwind Monday's recovery
BoE Breeden 08:30 and Fed Waller 09:00 UTC could shift this read before US CPI at 13:30 UTC
A late-NY Iran-relief spike lifted GBPUSD from 1.3425 to 1.3442, extending higher lows off the 1.3399 NY low; Asia is now consolidating in a 1.3429–1.3446 Asian range with RSI(14) neutral near 54. Price sits just under the 1.3446 asian high and 1.3450 psych cap, with the 1.3438 pullback low as first support.
Support: 1.3438, 1.3429, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3446, 1.3450
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3446 asian high and 1.3450 psych breaks the Asian range to the upside
Break below the 1.3429 asian low, near the 38.2% fib of the NY low–Asia high leg, exposes the 1.3400 round number
BoE Breeden at 08:30 UTC, Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Flat in Asia after the late-NY rally · RSI 49 · price 1.34408
Tight Asian range 1.3432–1.3446 holding above yesterday's breakout.
Mid-Asian session, price is sitting mid-range between the 1.3432 asian low and the 1.3446 asian high. That range holds the late-NY jump off the 1.3399 ny low, which came as Iran-deal relief softened the USD. The 02:30 UTC dip to 1.3438 tested the NY low trend and closed back above it, RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.34317, 1.34285, 1.33986
Resistance: 1.34461, 1.3450
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3446 asian high and the 1.3450 round number extends the late-NY breakout
Loss of the 1.3432 asian low exposes the 1.3429 rollover low, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the NY low swing
A slide back toward the 1.3399 ny low would unwind the rally from yesterday's NY session
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 and BoE Breeden at 08:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3399 NY low; tight Asia coil just below the session high.
Monday's climb from the 1.3399 NY low, helped by easing US-Iran fears and a softer USD, has left a higher low at 1.3432 in the Asia session. Price is now coiling between 1.3441 and 1.3446, pinned under the 1.3446 Asia high and 1.3450 psych. RSI(14) sits near 58 and ATR is about 4 pips, a quiet tape ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.34409, 1.34317, 1.33986
Resistance: 1.34461, 1.3450, 1.3463
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3446 Asia high and 1.3450 psych opens the 1.3463 prior high
Break of the 1.3441 coil low and the rising support line exposes the 1.3432 higher low
Loss of the 1.3432 higher low breaks the higher-low chain, with the 1.3399 NY low the next reference
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under 1.3450 · RSI 61 · price 1.34429
Higher lows in Asia; new Asian high 1.3446 after the late-NY breakout held.
The late-NY breakout above 1.3427 held on the rollover dip to the 1.3429 swing low. The Asia session then printed a higher low at 1.3432, the asian low, and a new asian high at 1.3446. Price is now coiling just under the 1.3450 psych level, with Monday's softer-USD, easing-Iran recovery intact into CPI.
Support: 1.34317, 1.34285, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.34461, 1.3450, 1.3463
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3450 psych level opens the 1.3463 prior high
Loss of the 1.3432 asian low and the rising Asia trendline breaks the higher-low chain
A break below the 1.3429 swing low, at the 38.2% fib, puts the 1.3400 round number in focus
BoE Breeden (08:30 UTC) and Fed Waller (09:00 UTC) could shift this read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially reset this read
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, early Asia at fresh highs · RSI 59 · price 1.34437
Higher lows since NY low 1.3399, Monday high broken.
Cable has held its gains since Monday's London-open break of 1.3400 on a softer USD. A higher-low chain from the NY low at 1.3399 has carried price to a session high at 1.3446 in the Asia session, after demand stepped in at the 1.3432 Asian low. Price is sitting just above the 1.3444 Monday high, RSI(14) is near 59 and ATR(14) is under 4 pips, typical of thin Asian trade.
Support: 1.34436, 1.34317, 1.33989
Resistance: 1.34462, 1.3450
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3444 Monday high turns the break into a false break and puts the 1.3432 Asian low back in play
Close above the 1.3446 session high opens the 1.3450 round number
A break of the rising trendline from the NY low, or a move under the 38.2% fib near 1.3428, would end the higher-low sequence
BoE Breeden 08:30 GMT and Fed Waller 09:00 UTC around London open could shift this read; US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the larger event risk
01:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, Asia printing new highs · RSI 58 · price 1.34456
Higher-high / higher-low chain off the 1.3399 NY low.
Cable has held a higher-low chain off the 1.3399 NY low as USD softened on Iran-deal hopes, clearing the 1.3426 London high at 19:30 UTC. Early Asia session has pushed through the 1.3443 prior high to 1.3446 off a 1.3431 asian low, with the rising trendline intact. RSI(14) near 58 is not stretched.
Support: 1.3443, 1.3431, 1.3399
Resistance: 1.3450, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3443 prior high would mark the Asia breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3431 asian low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence
1.3450 round number is the next cap; acceptance above it leaves 1.3500 weekly high as the next reference
A pullback toward the 50% fib of the 1.3399–1.3446 leg (~1.3423) would still keep the NY low intact
BoE's Breeden 08:30 GMT and Fed Waller 09:00 UTC ahead of US CPI 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing at the high · RSI 55 · price 1.34422
HH/HL chain from Monday's Asia low; tight Asian range just below the monday high.
Cable extended Monday's USD-weakness rally on Iran de-escalation. Late in NY it broke the 1.3426 London prior high and topped at the 1.34436 monday high. The Asia session is holding a 1.3432–1.3442 range above that level, and the last bar closed at the range top with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.34317, 1.34265, 1.33989
Resistance: 1.34436, 1.3450
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.34436 monday high extends the HH chain toward the 1.3450 round number
Break of the 1.34317 asian low exposes the 1.34265 prior high, which sits near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib
Loss of rising support and the 1.33989 ny low would break Monday's higher-low structure
BoE's Breeden 08:30 GMT and Fed's Waller 09:00 UTC precede US CPI at 13:30 UTC; the CPI print could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, early Asia pullback · RSI 38 · price 1.34322
Lower high at 1.3442 under the 1.3444 session high, testing the gap low.
Broad USD weakness carried cable from the 1.3399 NY low to a 1.3444 session high late NY. Early Asia printed a lower high at 1.3442 and is back on the 1.3430 gap low left at the daily rollover, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.3430, 1.3427, 1.3399
Resistance: 1.3444, 1.3450
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3430 gap low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3427 and the 1.3420 shelf
Reclaim of 1.3444 session high shifts focus to the 1.3450 round number
Hold of the 1.3399 NY low keeps the rally structure intact on any deeper pullback
BoE Breeden 08:30 GMT and Fed Waller 09:00 UTC could shift this read
US CPI 13:30 UTC is the main volatility risk for the session
00:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, fading in early Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.34342
Late-NY breakout holding; Asia printing lower highs below 1.3444.
GBP/USD rebounded from the 1.3399 ny low and broke out above 1.3426 late in NY, setting a 1.3444 session high as the USD stayed the weakest major on Iran de-escalation and lower yields. Early Asia is drifting off the highs with a lower high at 1.3442. Price is sitting on the 23.6% fib of the NY rally, above the 1.3430 rollover low, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.34297, 1.34262, 1.33989
Resistance: 1.34436, 1.3450
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3430 rollover low puts the 1.3426 breakout area (38.2% fib) in play as the next support
Loss of 1.3426 would undo the late-NY breakout and reopen the 1.3399 ny low
Reclaim of the 1.3444 session high exposes the 1.3450 psych level
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight consolidation under the NY session high after a higher-low rally.
A softer USD fuelled a NY rally from the 1.3399 swing low through the 1.3426 prior high, and price is now holding a 1.3437–1.3442 band just under the 1.3444 session high in thin early Asia trade. The 1.3426 prior high lines up with the 38.2% retracement of that leg. RSI(14) near 47 and price flat at EMA20 fit a pause, not a reversal.
Support: 1.3426, 1.3399
Resistance: 1.34436, 1.3450
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3444 session high opens the 1.3450 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3426 prior high (38.2% of the NY rally) exposes the 1.3399 swing low
BoE Breeden 08:30 GMT and Fed's Waller 09:00 UTC could break the Asian range
US CPI 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 44 · price 1.3437
HH/HL chain from the NY low, now consolidating under the day high.
GBP/USD put together a HH/HL chain on Monday as the USD weakened on Iran de-escalation. The pair held the 1.3399 NY low, cleared the 1.3426 prior high and printed a 1.3444 day high late in NY. Early Asia is consolidating between 1.3430 and 1.3442 after the rollover gap down to the 1.3430 gap low, with RSI(14) near 44 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 1.3430, 1.34265, 1.3399
Resistance: 1.34436, 1.3500
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3430 gap low breaks the rising trendline from the NY low
Loss of the 1.3426 prior high (38.2% fib) reopens the 1.3399 NY low
Close above the 1.3444 day high extends the uptrend toward the 1.3500 8-week high
BoE Breeden 08:30 and Fed Waller 09:00 UTC, then US CPI 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under session high · RSI 63 · price 1.3441
HH/HL chain since the NY low; tight range at the highs in early Asia.
Broad USD weakness on US-Iran de-escalation lifted GBPUSD from the 1.3360 Asian low through 1.3400 in London. The NY low at 1.3399 held, and a late-NY push through the 1.3426 breakout lvl set the 1.3444 session high. Early Asia is compressing just under that high after the rollover low at 1.3430 was quickly reclaimed, with RSI(14) at 63 and ATR(14) near 4 pips.
Support: 1.3430, 1.3426, 1.3399
Resistance: 1.3444
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3444 session high extends the HH chain toward 1.3463
Loss of the 1.3430 rollover low and the 1.3426 breakout lvl would turn the late-NY move into a false break, exposing the 1.3399 ny low
BoE Breeden at 08:30 GMT and Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC around London open; US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read