Lower highs since Thursday; bounce capped at weekly open.
Monday's climb from the 1.3349 weekly open to 1.3459 at Tuesday's London open fully reversed after hot US core CPI hit in the NY session. The 147-pip CPI drop ran to a 1.3312 week low, back under Friday's 1.3342 low, and fits the lower highs from Thursday's 1.3501 peak through Tuesday's 1.3459. The bounce has stalled at the weekly open, near the 23.6% retracement of that drop, with price below a falling EMA(20) at 1.3377 and EMA(50) at 1.3398; RSI(14) has lifted from 18.4 to 30.2 and ATR is easing from 16.6 to 13.9 pips.
Support: 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33486, 1.33769, 1.33977
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3349 weekly open and the 1.3377 ema20 would mark the first higher high since the CPI drop
Reclaiming the 1.3398 ema50 and 1.3400 would break the lower highs sequence
A break of the 1.3312 week low extends lower lows toward the 1.3300 round number
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could shift this read, with Fed-speak on a 50bp move in focus
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC is the next GBP-side catalyst for the 1.3300–1.3400 band
Lower high at 1.3459, lower low at 1.3312 below Friday's low.
Monday's rally from the weekly open at 1.3349 was capped at 1.3459 early Tuesday. The pair then reversed in two legs: Waller's 50bp talk drove the London-session drop, and the hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) took it to a new week low at 1.3312 during NY hours, below the 1.3342 friday low. That extends the lower-highs sequence from last Thursday's 1.3501 peak. EMA(20) has crossed below a now-declining EMA(50), and price sits under both; RSI(14) has lifted to 31 from an oversold 18, but the bounce has stalled just under the weekly open, with ATR easing from its 16.6-pip peak.
Support: 1.33421, 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33486, 1.33808, 1.34001
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3349 weekly open and ema20 at 1.3381 (near the 38.2% fib of Tuesday's drop) would mark a deeper retracement
A move through ema50 at 1.3400 would also break the lower-highs line's latest leg and neutralise Tuesday's reversal
Failure to hold the 1.3342 friday low exposes the 1.3312 week low, then the 1.3300 round number
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could extend or fade the post-CPI dollar repricing
UK GDP Thu 07:00 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.7%): a miss raises the risk of acceptance below the week low
CPI impulse lower from week high, shallow rebound stalling at weekly open.
Monday's Asia-to-London recovery from the weekly open topped at 1.3459 early in Tuesday's London session, where Waller's 50bp hint drew the first rejection; the hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) then drove a ~147-pip CPI drop through NY hours to a week low at 1.3312. RSI(14) fell from near 70 to 18.4 and has recovered to 31.3, while ATR expanded to 16.6 pips and is now easing to 14.9. Price is consolidating between the friday low at 1.3342 and the weekly open at 1.3349, below a sharply falling EMA(20) at 1.3385 and the EMA(50) at 1.3402.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3312
Resistance: 1.3349, 1.33847, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the weekly open at 1.3349 that then reaches the ema20 at 1.3385, which also sits at the 50% retracement of the CPI drop, would mark the move as a deeper correction
Acceptance back above the round number 1.3400 would bring EMA(50) at 1.3402 back into play and weaken the downtrend read
Failure to hold the friday low at 1.3342 reopens the week low at 1.3312; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, then UK GDP Thu 07:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off the week low · RSI 32 · price 1.33471
Lower high at 1.3459 under the 1.3501 high; lower low at 1.3312.
Tuesday's drop began at the 1.3459 high in the London session on Waller's 50bp hint and extended into the NY session after the hot US core CPI print. It broke the friday low and set a week low at 1.3312, with RSI(14) down to 18.4 and ATR expanding from about 10 to 16 pips. Price has since recovered to the 1.3349 week open with RSI back at 32.2. It still sits below a falling ema20 at 1.3389 and the ema50 at 1.3405, after a bearish ema cross. The lower high at 1.3459 under the 1.3501 high keeps the lower highs sequence and the downtrend read intact.
Support: 1.33421, 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33486, 1.33889, 1.34048
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3349 week open puts the 50% retracement of Tuesday's drop and the ema20 near 1.3386-1.3389 in focus
Failure to hold the 1.3342 friday low reopens the 1.3312 week low and the 1.3300 round number
The 61.8% retracement of Tuesday's drop coincides with the ema50 near 1.3403-1.3405; a break above it weakens the downtrend read
A break above 1.3459 and the lower highs line from 1.3501 negates the downtrend structure
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could shift 25bp vs 50bp pricing and this read
UK GDP on Thu at 07:00 UTC is the next GBP test and could materially shift the structure around the week low
Monday's rally from the week open topped at 1.3459 in early London on Tuesday. The Tuesday drop began on Waller's 50bp talk and extended through NY hours after the hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%), taking out Friday's low near 1.3342 and printing a 1.3312 Tuesday low. Price is bouncing back toward the week open at 1.3349. It sits below both EMAs, and EMA(20) has crossed under EMA(50). RSI(14) has lifted from 18.4 to 29, and ATR has expanded from about 10 to 16 pips.
Support: 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33486, 1.33682, 1.33933
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3349 week open puts the Friday-low break in question
Rebound capped at the 38.2% fib (1.3368) or ema20 (1.3393) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Break below the 1.3312 Tuesday low extends the lower low toward 1.3300 psych
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC on a 50bp December hike could shift this read
UK GDP Thu 07:00 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.7%) is the next GBP-side test
Cable has given back all of Monday's rally off the 1.3349 weekly open. Tuesday's drop from the 1.3459 London high began on Waller's 50bp comments and accelerated through the NY session after US core CPI beat (0.3% vs 0.2%), and the CPI low at 1.3312 undercut Friday's NFP low at 1.3342, extending a lower-high, lower-low sequence from Thursday's 1.3501 peak. Price sits well below EMA(20) at 1.3399, which has crossed under EMA(50), while RSI(14) is oversold at 24.8 and curling up from 18.4 as ATR expands to 16.4 pips.
Support: 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33421, 1.33486, 1.33987
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3342 Friday low and 1.3349 weekly open would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3312 CPI low exposes the 1.3300 round number
A recovery toward EMA(20) at 1.3399 would test the 50% retrace of Tuesday's drop
BoE's Pill (18:30 UTC) and Fed's Bowman (20:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
UK GDP Thu 07:00 UTC is the next scheduled GBP catalyst
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg lower and oversold · RSI 18 · price 1.3321
Lower high at 1.3459 under Thursday's 1.3501, now a lower low below Friday's 1.3342.
Monday's climb from the 1.3349 weekly open stalled at 1.3459 early London after Waller's 50bp remarks, forming a lower high on the lower-highs line from Thursday's 1.3501. The US core CPI beat (0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a roughly 110-pip NY-session slide through the weekly open and Friday low to a 1.3312 week low, erasing the week's gains. EMA(20) has crossed below EMA(50), price trades well under both, ATR(14) has expanded from 9.8 to 16.6 pips and RSI(14) at 18.4 is deeply oversold. On the CPI sell-off fib, the 61.8% retracement sits near 1.3403, close to EMA(20).
Support: 1.33121, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33421, 1.33486, 1.34056
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.3342-1.3349 (friday low / weekly open) would mark today's break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3300 round number extends the lower-low sequence below the 1.3312 week low
A new low with RSI(14) holding above 18.4 would set up bullish divergence from oversold
EMA20 near 1.3406, which lines up with the 61.8% CPI sell-off fib retracement, is the first test on any recovery
BoE's Pill at 18:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift this read; UK GDP is due Thursday 07:00 UTC
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg after reversal of Monday's rally · RSI 20 · price 1.33343
Tuesday's sessions erased Monday's steady climb from the 1.3349 weekly open to the 1.3459 week high. Waller's 50bp remarks knocked cable 30 pips in London, then the hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2% f/c) drove the NY slide to a 1.3331 session low, below Friday's low at 1.3342. Price sits under both EMAs with EMA(20) just crossing below EMA(50), RSI(14) has swung from ~70 this morning to an oversold 20.2, and ATR has expanded to 16 pips from ~10.
Support: 1.33313, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33421, 1.33486, 1.34145
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.3342 Friday low and 1.3349 weekly open would mark today's break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3331 session low exposes the 1.3300 round number
A rebound into the Tuesday drop fib finds 38.2% near 1.3380 and 61.8% near 1.3410, close to EMA(20) at 1.3415
BoE's Pill at 18:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30/23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; UK GDP Thu 07:00 UTC is next
Monday rally fully rejected; lower highs since the Tuesday week high, floor near 1.3420 lost.
The Monday rally from the 1.3349 week open topped at 1.3459 in early London Tuesday and has since printed lower highs, first on Waller's 50bp talk and then on the hot US CPI beat into the NY open. That move cut through the 1.3420 floor and the ema20 at 1.3423, with ema50 just below at 1.3420, and back under the 1.3400 psych level. Price now sits near the 78.6% retracement of the Monday rally, with RSI(14) falling from ~70 to 27.7 in six bars and ATR expanding to 13.5 pips.
Support: 1.33486, 1.33421
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34229, 1.3459
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.3400 psych level eases the breakdown read; reclaiming the ema20 near 1.3423 negates it
Failure to hold the 1.3349 week open exposes Friday's 1.3342 nfp low and erases the week's gains
Oversold RSI(14) near 28 leaves room for a rebound toward the lower-highs line without changing structure
BoE Pill speech 18:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30/23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; UK GDP Thu 07:00 UTC is the bigger test
Monday's higher-low sequence broken; two lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3459 top.
Monday's rally from the 1.3349 weekly open ran out at Tuesday's London-morning high of 1.3459, just above the 1.3450 cap. Waller's 50bp talk then took price to a 1.3422 shelf, and the hot US CPI (core MoM 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke Monday's rising trendline. Price now sits below EMA(20) at 1.3428 and EMA(50) at 1.3422, both rolling over. It is testing the 61.8% fib of Monday's rally near 1.3390, with RSI(14) at 32.7 just above oversold and ATR expanding to 12.7 pips.
Support: 1.3390, 1.33486, 1.33421
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34218, 1.3428
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 61.8% fib at 1.3390 opens the weekly open at 1.3349 and the friday low at 1.3342
Recovery back above the round number at 1.3400 and the ema50 at 1.3422 would neutralise the post-CPI break
CPI YoY headline and core prints are still awaited and could extend or reverse the move
BoE Pill at 18:30 GMT and Fed Bowman later in NY hours could shift the read on the hike outlook
13:01 UTC
Monday rally rejected, pulling back toward EMAs · RSI 45 · price 1.34221
Monday trend line of higher lows broken; price at session low.
GBP/USD climbed steadily from the 1.3349 weekly open through Monday as easing US-Iran fears weakened the USD, peaking at the 1.3459 session high around Tuesday's London open. Waller's warning about a bigger December hike then knocked the pair about 30 pips lower in a single bar. That move broke the Monday trend line and pushed price below EMA(20) at 1.3432 and fractionally under EMA(50) at 1.3423. RSI(14) has dropped from 69.9 to 45.4, and price is holding the 1.3421 session low near the 38.2% retracement of the Monday rally.
Support: 1.34211, 1.33989, 1.33421
Resistance: 1.34231, 1.34318, 1.3459
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read within the hour
Failure to hold the 1.3421 session low exposes the 1.3399 Monday dip low and the 50% retracement of the Monday rally near 1.3403
An H1 close back above EMA(20) at 1.3432 would put the 1.3459 session high back in focus
A break below 1.3400 opens the path toward the 1.3342 NFP low from Friday's NY session
BoE Pill at 18:30 UTC is a secondary GBP risk
12:01 UTC
Recovery uptrend stalled at week high · RSI 47 · price 1.34243
Higher lows since Monday; rejection bar broke Asian low.
From the 1.3349 weekly open, GBPUSD climbed through Monday's London and NY sessions as the dollar unwound its NFP gains. Higher lows carried it to a 1.3459 week high in early London today. Waller's hawkish remarks then produced a 30-pip rejection bar that broke the Asian range low and pushed price below EMA(20) at 1.3433. It now sits on EMA(50) at 1.3423, a retest of Monday's breakout zone between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels of the week's fib. RSI(14) has dropped from 69.9 to 47.4 and ATR(14) has ticked up to 11.2 pips, so momentum has cooled without reaching an oversold reading.
Support: 1.34231, 1.33989, 1.33486
Resistance: 1.34329, 1.34436, 1.3459
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; BoE's Lombardelli speaks in about 30 minutes
H1 close below EMA(50) at 1.3423 would expose Monday's 1.3399 swing low and the 1.3400 handle
Failure to hold the 1.3399 swing low would leave the 1.3349 weekly open as the next reference
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 1.3433 and the 1.3444 Monday high would put the 1.3459 week high back in focus
11:01 UTC
Rebound from Friday's lows stalled, momentum reset to neutral · RSI 50 · price 1.34295
Higher lows since Monday's open, broken by the 08:00 UTC drop; holding EMA(50).
GBPUSD rallied about 117 pips from the post-NFP area near 1.3342. The London-open leg drove the move, and buyers defended Monday's NY-session higher low at 1.3399 before a fresh week high at 1.3459 in early London today. Waller's hike warning then triggered a rejection that took out the rally trendline and printed the waller low at 1.3422, a retest of EMA(50) at 1.3423. Price now sits just below a flattening EMA(20) at 1.3433, with RSI(14) dropping from the high 60s to 49.6 and ATR(14) back up to 11.5 pips.
Support: 1.3422, 1.33986
Resistance: 1.34334, 1.34587, 1.3500
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read, with core 2.8% YoY / 0.2% MoM the swing factor
H1 close below the waller low at 1.3422 and EMA(50) exposes the Monday higher low at 1.3399, near the 50% fib of the rebound
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 1.3433 brings the week high at 1.3459 back into view
Close above 1.3459 opens the path to the 1.3500 round number, last week's highs
Lombardelli at 12:30 UTC is a secondary GBP risk ahead of the print
10:01 UTC
Recovery uptrend, rejected at week high · RSI 48 · price 1.34273
Higher lows since Friday low; rising support broken, testing ema50.
GBPUSD has carved higher lows off the 1.3342 friday low, unwinding the NFP sell-off as Iran de-escalation weighed on the USD, with London hours driving both Monday's leg and this morning's push to a 1.3459 week high. The 09:00 UTC bar then reversed about 37 pips, breaking the rising support line and taking price below the ema20 at 1.3434 onto the ema50 at 1.3422. RSI(14) slid from 68.8 to 47.6 after a mild bearish divergence at the high, and ATR(14) expanded to 11.6 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.34225, 1.3400, 1.33422
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.34587, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema50 at 1.3422 exposes the 1.3400 round number, Monday's 1.3399 low and the 50% level of the fib
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.3434 and then the 1.3459 week high would restore the higher-high sequence toward the 1.3500 prior high
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; BoE Lombardelli speaks at 12:30 UTC
Failure to hold 1.3400 leaves the 1.3342 friday low as the next structural floor
GBP/USD has retraced most of Friday's NFP-driven drop. The week rally runs from the 1.3342 low at Monday's open to 1.3459 into London open, as the USD faded on Iran de-escalation and the oil slide. Higher lows at the 1.3399 Monday low (NY session) and the 1.3429 swing low keep price above a rising ema20 (1.3435) and ema50 (1.3422). RSI(14) has held 54–70 on pullbacks without printing overbought, while ATR has compressed from 12.7 to 10.1 pips ahead of US CPI. Overhead, last week's prior high at 1.3486 and the 1.3500 last wk high, a double cap from Wednesday and Thursday, are the next structural ceiling.
Support: 1.34349, 1.34285, 1.33986
Resistance: 1.34861, 1.35027
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; ATR compression leaves room for range expansion
H1 close below the 1.3429 swing low and the higher lows trendline breaks the week's rising sequence and exposes ema20/ema50 and the 1.3399 Monday low
Monday low near 1.3400 aligns with the 50% fib of the week rally; failure there would retrace most of the recovery
Acceptance above the 1.3486 prior high puts the 1.3500 last wk high, capped twice last week, in focus for rejection or break
BoE Lombardelli at 12:30 UTC and Pill at 18:30 UTC add GBP two-way risk
Higher lows since Sunday open, Thursday's high still above.
Cable has rebuilt from the post-NFP week low near 1.3342 at Sunday's open on broad USD softness and Iran de-escalation relief. London drove Monday's leg, Monday's pullback low at 1.3399 held, and an ema cross put EMA(20) above EMA(50). Price is now testing the session high at 1.3458 at London open, near the 78.6% retracement of the Thursday-to-Monday drop, with RSI(14) at 68, just short of overbought, and ATR easing from 12.7 to 10.1 pips as the market waits on CPI.
Support: 1.34329, 1.34285, 1.33986
Resistance: 1.34579, 1.34861, 1.3500
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Breeden and Waller speak within the hour
H1 close above the session high at 1.3458 opens the Thu high at 1.3486, then the 1.3500 psych level
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.3429, just below ema20, breaks the higher-low trendline
Loss of the pullback low at 1.3399 would unwind most of Monday's rebound
Higher lows off Monday's 1.3342 low; Asia stalling under Friday high.
GBPUSD has climbed from Monday's 1.3342 open low and is now back above the 61.8% decline fib of last week's post-BoE to post-NFP drop. The dollar faded on Iran de-escalation and lower oil. London drove Monday's main leg, and a late NY push through 1.3420 followed Bailey's remarks. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 1.3431 and the Monday trend line, but the Asia session has stalled at the 1.3454 asia high. ATR(14) has compressed to 10.1 pips, and RSI(14) at 65.9 sits below its 69.7 Monday peak on a higher high, a mild bearish divergence. The friday high at 1.3463 and the 1.3500 psych level sit overhead, with the monday high at 1.3442 the first shelf below.
Support: 1.3442, 1.3431, 1.3399
Resistance: 1.3454, 1.3463, 1.3500
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; BoE's Breeden (08:30 UTC) and Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) speak before it
H1 close above the 1.3463 friday high opens the path to the 1.3500 psych level
H1 close below the ema20 near 1.3431 and the Monday trend line would show the Monday leg stalling
Failure to hold the 1.3399 pullback low breaks the higher-low sequence
Higher lows from the weekly low; price above the 61.8% fib of the NFP drop.
GBPUSD has recovered about 110 pips from Monday's weekly low at 1.3342, which came after Friday's strong NFP drop. The London-session leg drove most of the gain, and the NY dip to the 1.3399 swing low held as a higher low as easing US-Iran risk softened the USD. Price now sits just above the 61.8% fib of the NFP drop near 1.3441, with EMA(20) rising through EMA(50) and price holding above both. RSI(14) failed to beat Monday's 69.7 reading on this morning's marginal week high at 1.3451, and ATR has compressed from 12.7 to 10.2 pips into US CPI.
Support: 1.34291, 1.33986, 1.33419
Resistance: 1.3451, 1.35027
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 at 1.3429 and the higher-low trendline would end the Monday uptrend read
Loss of the 1.3399 swing low exposes the 1.3342 weekly low
Acceptance above the 1.3451 week high puts last week's prior high near 1.3500 in play, the level that capped Wednesday and Thursday
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (headline f/c 3.9%, core 2.8%) could materially shift this read
BoE's Breeden (08:30 UTC) and Lombardelli (12:30 UTC) remarks on hike pricing are near-term GBP risk
05:01 UTC
Recovery from the post-NFP low, momentum firm · RSI 69 · price 1.3448
Higher lows since Monday's open, retesting the broken double-top neckline.
GBP/USD has retraced most of the 1.3503–1.3342 slide. The rebound came through London and late NY on Monday as USD softened on easing Iran fears, and Asia is now pressing the 1.3450 psych area, just above the fib 61.8 at 1.3441. That zone was the double-top neckline broken after Friday's NFP beat, so price is retesting it from below while pullbacks hold the higher-low trendline and ema20 near 1.3429, with RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 1.3441, 1.3429, 1.3399
Resistance: 1.3450, 1.3486, 1.3503
What it said to watch
An H1 close above 1.3450 psych reopens the boe high at 1.3486 and the week high at 1.3503
A break of the higher-low trendline and ema20 near 1.3429 would mark the Monday rally stalling at the fib 61.8
Failure to hold the monday low at 1.3399 would negate the recovery structure
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, with Breeden at 08:30 and Waller at 09:00, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since weekly open, compressing near 61.8% retrace.
GBPUSD has climbed about 100 pips from the 1.3344 weekly open on a string of Monday higher lows. USD softened on US-Iran deal hopes, unwinding much of Friday's NFP-driven slide. Price has now retraced roughly 61.8% of the Thu-Fri decline and is compressing in a tight Asia range just under the 1.3446 Asia high. It is holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 68 and flattening.
Support: 1.3435, 1.3399, 1.3344
Resistance: 1.3446, 1.3486, 1.3500
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read. A hot print risks a quick reversal of Monday's gains.
An H1 close above the 1.3446 Asia high opens the path to the 1.3486 Thu high and the 1.3500 double top area.
A drop back below EMA(20) and the Monday higher lows trendline would expose the 1.3399 pullback low.
Failure to hold the 1.3344 weekly open would negate the recovery structure.
BoE Breeden (08:30) and Lombardelli (12:30 UTC) on December hike timing are secondary risk ahead of CPI.
Higher highs/lows since Monday, stalling at 61.8% of last week's decline.
After the blowout NFP drove Friday's NY-session drop to 1.3342, the week opened at the low and GBP/USD recovered roughly 100 pips on Monday, mostly in London and late NY, as Iran de-escalation and lower oil eased the USD. The Monday dip at 1.3399 held near the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday–Monday decline, and price now sits at the 61.8% level around 1.3441, just under the 1.3446 week high and the 1.3450 round number. Asia has compressed into a 1.3429–1.3446 band above EMA(20), with RSI(14) holding in the low 60s.
Support: 1.3429, 1.3399, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3446, 1.3450, 1.3503
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; headline f/c 3.9%, core f/c 2.8%
H1 close above the 1.3446 week high and 1.3450 round number clears the 61.8% retracement and opens the 1.3503 prior high
Loss of the 1.3429 swing low and the Monday trendline puts the 1.3399 Monday dip back in play
Failure at the 1.3399 Monday dip would negate the recovery and expose the 1.3342 week low
BoE Breeden, Lombardelli and Pill comments on December vs February hike timing
02:02 UTC
Uptrend since Monday open, momentum flattening near highs · RSI 66 · price 1.34438
Higher lows from 1.3349 weekly open, pausing at 61.8% retrace of last week's drop.
Cable has climbed steadily from the 1.3349 weekly open, recovering most of Friday's NFP-driven slide to 1.3342 as the USD softened on US-Iran de-escalation hopes. The London session drove the lift through 1.3400, a NY-hours dip held the 1.3399 swing low on the Monday trendline, and late NY pushed price to the 61.8% retrace of last week's 1.3503–1.3342 decline. The Asian range is compressing just under the 1.3446 session high, with price above the EMA20 near 1.3432 and RSI(14) around 66, short of overbought.
Support: 1.3432, 1.3399, 1.3349
Resistance: 1.3446, 1.3485, 1.3503
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC today (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.3446 session high and the 61.8% retrace opens the boe-day high at 1.3485, then the 1.3503 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3399 swing low breaks the Monday trendline and the higher-low sequence, exposing the 1.3349 weekly open
BoE speakers today and UK GDP Thu 07:00 GMT test the rich hike pricing behind GBP
01:01 UTC
Recovery leg off Friday low, stalling at resistance · RSI 58 · price 1.3434
Higher lows since Monday open inside a broader pullback from the 1.3500 double top.
Cable fell from the 1.3500 prior high, a double top set Wednesday and Thursday, to the 1.3342 swing low after Friday's NFP beat. Broad USD weakness on Iran de-escalation headlines then drove a steady Monday recovery through London and NY, with Monday's NY low at 1.3399 printing a higher low on the higher-low trendline. Price is now holding above ema20 but stalling in the Asian session at the 1.3444 week high, which sits on the 61.8% retrace of the Thursday–Friday decline, with RSI(14) near 58 and no longer extended.
Support: 1.3423, 1.3399, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3444, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3444 week high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the path toward the 1.3500 prior high
Loss of ema20 and the 1.3399 ny low breaks Monday's higher-low trendline
A move back under the 1.3342 swing low resumes the post-NFP lower-low sequence
US CPI at 13:30 UTC today, plus Waller and BoE speakers Breeden, Lombardelli and Pill, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday's open, testing 61.8% retracement of last week's selloff.
GBP/USD opened the week at 1.3349, just above Friday's post-NFP low, then climbed steadily through London and NY hours on broad USD weakness and US-Iran de-escalation headlines. The mid-NY dip held the 1.3399 ny low before a late push to the 1.3444 monday high, leaving price stalled at the 61.8% retracement of last week's 1.3503–1.3342 selloff. Price holds above EMA(20), now converging with the 50% fib near 1.3422, and RSI(14) sits in the mid-60s without divergence.
Support: 1.3422, 1.3399, 1.3347
Resistance: 1.3444, 1.3463, 1.3503
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print would put the 50% fib and 1.3399 ny low back in play
H1 close above the 1.3444 monday high clears the 61.8% retracement and opens the 1.3463 lower high, then the 1.3503 prior high
Failure to hold 1.3399 breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.3347 weekly open
BoE Breeden, Lombardelli and Pill plus Fed's Waller on Tue may move GBP ahead of CPI