Higher low at 1.3272 after 1.3419 peak; push through 1.3338 cap.
The 1.3137→1.3419 rally retraced to a 1.3272 swing low, just above the 50% fib of the move, and that low held as a higher low on the rising higher-low line. Price then broke the 1.3338 prior cap, which had been tested twice, and regained both EMAs after the Fed hold. Cable proved resilient despite the US GDP beat, and the move now presses the 1.3380 pivot high that aligns with the digest's 1.3365/1.3385 resistance. ATR(14) near 29 pips is expanding off the breakout bar after a compressed late-October phase.
Support: 1.3338, 1.3311, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3380, 1.3419
What it said to watch
An H4 close back below the 1.3338 prior cap would turn the breakout into a false break
A sustained hold above the 1.3380 pivot high opens the path to the 1.3419 swing high
A slip below the fib 38.2 at 1.3311 and then the 1.3272 swing low would break the higher-low structure
US ECI Q3 and Fed's Daly and Musalem on Fri could materially shift this read
The BoE decision on Nov 5 is the dominant multi-day risk for the structure
17:02 UTC
Pullback in a larger uptrend, recovery underway · RSI 61 · price 1.33727
Lower highs from 1.3419 broken; higher low held above 1.3137.
The early-month advance from the 1.3137 low topped at the 1.3419 swing high. A week of lower highs followed and price pulled back to the 1.3272 swing low, about a 52% retrace of that advance. The latest bar broke the falling trendline and the 1.3338 breakout level, clearing the 1.3365/1.3385 cap flagged in the market context. Cable is recovering after the Fed hold despite the US GDP beat and now sits above the 61.8% retrace of the decline. EMA20 is still below EMA50 even as price reclaims both, and ATR(14) near 30 pips has expanded on the final bar.
Support: 1.33384, 1.3300, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.33873, 1.34188
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.3338 breakout level would mark a false break of the falling trendline
Clearance of the 1.3387 lower high reopens the 1.3419 swing high
Loss of the 1.3300 round number and then the 1.3272 swing low would confirm a lower low
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC, followed by Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read
BoE decision and MPR on Nov 5 is the main multi-day event risk for GBP
Lower highs since the 1.3419 swing high; decline paused at 50% fib.
Cable has carved a sequence of lower highs since the 1.3409/1.3419 double top, with USD firming into the hawkish Fed hold driving a four-session slide to the 1.3272 swing low. That low sits on the 50% fib of the 1.3137-1.3419 impulse. The rebound has stalled at the 1.3338 bounce high, leaving price pivoting around the 1.3300 round number below both EMAs. ATR(14) near 26 pips is compressed versus mid-month, which fits a market waiting on the just-released US PCE/GDP prints.
Support: 1.3300, 1.3272, 1.3245
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3387, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3272 swing low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3245
Acceptance above the 1.3338 bounce high, then the 1.3387 lower high, breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 1.3419 swing high
Loss of the 1.3300 round number keeps the decline from the double top intact
US core PCE and Q3 GDP actuals (just released) could materially shift this read
BoE decision and vote split on 5 Nov is the next GBP-specific risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3419 swing high; bounce retesting the broken 1.3330s.
Since the 1.3419 swing high, GBPUSD has printed lower highs along a descending trendline. The decline reached a two-week swing low at 1.3272 as the hawkish-tilted Fed hold lifted USD, and GBP drew little support from a neutral Budget. The rebound stalled at the 1.3338 bounce high, between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the pullback fib, with price pinned at EMA20 and below EMA50 after a bearish H4 EMA cross; ATR(14) near 24 pips shows no compression.
Support: 1.3272, 1.3185
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3361, 1.3419
What it said to watch
US core PCE (12:30 GMT, ~3.5h away; f/c 3.1% YoY) could materially shift this read
An H4 close below the 1.3272 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3185 range floor
A close above the 1.3338 bounce high and the lower highs trendline near 1.3361 (61.8% pullback fib) would break the descending structure and reopen the 1.3419 swing high
05:02 UTC
Pullback within broader rally, lower highs since peak · RSI 44 · price 1.3324
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.3419 swing high; bounce off 50% retracement now retesting old support.
The 1.3137–1.3419 rally has given way to a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Cable broke the 1.3340 old support as a re-bid USD and the hawkish-tilt Fed hold weighed. The swing low at 1.3272 held just above the 50% retracement, and the bounce has stalled into 1.3338, with price capped by EMA(20) and EMA(50) and ATR(14) near 24 pips, down from the rally's expansion phase.
Support: 1.3303, 1.3272, 1.3245
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3359, 1.3419
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP in ~8h could materially shift this read; a soft print would put the 1.3338 old support retest in play
H4 close above the 1.3359 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence off the 1.3419 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.3303 minor low and then the 1.3272 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3245
BoE November decision next week; repricing of the expected hike on weak UK consumer data could reshape the swing structure
01:02 UTC
Corrective pullback within a broader advance · RSI 46 · price 1.33237
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3419 peak; bounce testing the descending trendline.
Since the 1.3419 swing high, price has printed lower highs and lower lows. The pullback has retraced roughly 50% of the 1.3137–1.3419 advance, with the 1.3272 swing low sitting almost on that level. The post-Fed USD dip lifted price back above the 1.3300 round number, but the bounce met rejection at the descending trendline near 1.3340. EMA20 has crossed below EMA50, and ATR(14) near 22 pips has compressed from the mid-month expansion.
Support: 1.3300, 1.3272, 1.3245
Resistance: 1.3340, 1.3359, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close above the descending trendline and the 1.3359 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.3419 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.3300 round number reopens the 1.3272 swing low, with the 61.8% fib of the advance at 1.3245 below
US core PCE (f/c 3.1% y/y) Thursday 12:30 UTC, ~12h out, could materially shift this read