Higher low at 1.3272 vs 1.3137, marginal higher high at 1.3434.
Cable has carved a higher low at the 1.3272 swing low, versus 1.3137 earlier in the month. The rebound followed the UK Autumn Budget calming fiscal worries and ran to a window high of 1.3434. That push briefly cleared the 1.3419 prior high but closed back beneath it, leaving a false break, and price is now drifting into the fib retracement of the 1.3272-1.3434 leg. ATR(14) near 34 pips has expanded on the rally, with price holding above both the EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.3372, 1.3334, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3434, 1.3450
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3419 prior high and 1.3434 window high reopens the 1.3450 round number
Hold of the 38.2% fib at 1.3372 keeps the shallow-pullback, higher-low read intact
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 1.3334 exposes the 1.3272 swing low; a break there would end the higher-low sequence
BoE decision Nov 5 12:00 GMT (f/c +25bp, 7-2 vote) and Bailey at 12:30 could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing Nov 2 15:00 UTC and the midterms are the USD-side risk to the structure
20:05 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from new high · RSI 64 · price 1.33954
Higher highs and higher lows since 1.3137; pullback testing 38.2% of the latest impulse.
Higher-low structure is intact, from the 1.3137 mid-month low to the 1.3272 swing low on Oct 28. The impulse from there cleared the 1.3338 range top and the 1.3419 prior high on a wick, reaching a 1.3434 swing high, with GBP bid into the BoE and USD softer on lower yields. No H4 close has held above 1.3419. Price is now pulling back toward the fib 38.2 at 1.3372 with EMA20 back above EMA50, and ATR(14) near 34 pips has expanded since the breakout bar.
Support: 1.3372, 1.3338, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3434, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3434 swing high extends the higher-high sequence and opens the 1.3500 round number
Failure to hold the fib 38.2 at 1.3372 exposes the 1.3338 range top as the next support
Break below the 1.3272 swing low and the higher-lows trendline invalidates the uptrend read
US ISM Manufacturing on Mon Nov 2 and the US Midterms on Tue Nov 3 could shift the USD leg
BoE decision on Nov 5: a narrow vote split or 'one-and-done' guidance could unwind the move back toward 1.3300
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, retesting breakout zone · RSI 63 · price 1.33958
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3137 low.
Swing structure has stepped higher across the window: the 1.3137 low gave way to a higher swing low at 1.3272, and this week's rally cleared the 1.3419 prior high to print a 1.3434 swing high. The UK budget's soothing read, BoE hike pricing and a softer USD on falling yields drove the move. The latest bar has slipped back into the 1.3400-1.3419 zone, with the pullback low at 1.3372 sitting on the 38.2% fib of the 1.3272-1.3434 leg. ATR(14) near 34 pips is modestly expanded versus the early-month range phase, and EMA20 and EMA50 have converged around 1.3355 beneath price.
Support: 1.3372, 1.3355, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3434
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3372 pullback low would turn the push over the prior high into a false break and expose the ema20/50 area near 1.3355
Close above the 1.3434 swing high extends the higher-high sequence along the rising lows
Failure to hold the 1.3272 swing low breaks the rising lows trendline and the higher-low structure
Fed's Musalem today, ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms could shift USD direction before the BoE decision on Nov 5
Higher lows from 1.3137 and 1.3272; prior high 1.3419 cleared.
Cable has carved a higher-low sequence from the 1.3137 swing low to the 1.3272 swing low. The 160-pip impulse since this week's low has cleared the 1.3419 prior high and printed a fresh window high at 1.3434, helped by the post-FOMC USD fade and a near-fully priced BoE hike. RSI near 79 is overbought and ATR(14) is about 33 pips, while the 50% fib of the impulse lines up with the turning EMA20 near 1.3353, which is now testing a recross of EMA50.
Support: 1.3419, 1.3353, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3450
What it said to watch
An H4 close back below the 1.3419 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break.
The 1.3450 round number sits just above the window high and is an area to watch for rejection or extension.
A break of the 1.3272 swing low would end the higher-low sequence along the rising trendline.
US ECI today and the BoE decision on Nov 5 could materially shift this read. A dovish hike would put the ema20 / 50% zone near 1.3353 in focus.
12:15 UTC
Uptrend, extending to new window highs · RSI 73 · price 1.34273
Higher low at 1.3272 above the 1.3137 sweep low, now breaking above the 1.3419 prior high.
The late-October pullback held a higher swing low at 1.3272, well above the 1.3137 sweep low, and the rebound has carried cable through the 1.3419 prior high to a new window high at 1.3434. Price sits above both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) near 33 pips is expanding off the budget-relief and soft-USD leg, with BoE hike expectations underpinning GBP. RSI in the low 70s is stretched, so the fib 38.2 at 1.3372 marks the first retracement level on the 1.3272–1.3434 leg if the breakout does not hold.
Support: 1.3419, 1.3372, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3450
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.3419 prior high would flag a false break of the multi-week top
Failure to hold the fib 38.2 at 1.3372 exposes the 50% area near 1.3353
Clearance of the 1.3434 window high puts the 1.3450 psych level next
A break of the higher-low trendline from 1.3137 toward the 1.3272 swing low would undo the uptrend read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
BoE decision and Bailey speech on Nov 5 could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, retesting the October high · RSI 71 · price 1.34078
Higher low at 1.3272 above the 1.3137 October low; price back at the 1.3409-1.3419 swing high.
The impulse from the 1.3137 oct low to the 1.3419 swing high retraced about 50% into a 1.3272 swing low. That pullback leaves a higher low on the rising trendline. Cable then cleared the twice-tested 1.3338 cap (now the breakout level) on firm BoE hike pricing and a third day of USD softness. Price is pressing the 1.3409-1.3419 twin highs with RSI near 71 and ATR(14) expanding to about 32 pips, while EMA20 turns up toward EMA50 with price above both.
Support: 1.3338, 1.3272, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3419 swing high extends the higher-high sequence; rejection there leaves a potential double top in play
Failure back below the 1.3338 breakout level returns price to the late-October range, with the 1.3272 swing low next
US ECI at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 0.8%) could revive December hike pricing and shift this read
BoE decision Thu 5 Nov 12:00 UTC; a dovish hike or narrow vote split is the main downside risk to the uptrend structure
Higher low at 1.3272 vs 1.3137; price back at 1.3409-1.3419 highs.
Cable held a higher swing low at 1.3272, almost exactly the 50% retracement of the 1.3137-1.3419 advance. It then broke the 1.3338 prior cap, a level that had capped two rallies, in one wide bar and is now back against the 1.3409-1.3419 window high. A three-day USD slide on US-Iran de-escalation and a GBP bid into next week's BoE drove the move, with price back above both EMAs and ATR(14) near 30 pips after the breakout bar expanded range.
Support: 1.3360, 1.3338, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3419 window high extends the higher-high sequence; a rejection there leaves a potential double top in place
Loss of the 1.3360 breakout base, then the 1.3338 prior cap, would return price to the prior pullback range
Break below the 1.3272 swing low and the higher-lows trendline would invalidate the uptrend read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC today could swing USD and test the breakout
BoE decision Thu Nov 5 12:00 GMT; a plain hike is largely priced, so the vote split could reverse or extend the rally
01:02 UTC
Recovery from higher low, momentum building · RSI 64 · price 1.33792
Lower-high trendline broken; higher lows intact.
Cable has broken the lower-high trendline from the 1.3419 swing high and cleared the twice-tested 1.3338 prior cap. The rebound off the 1.3272 swing low came as GBP outperformed into the BoE meeting, offsetting USD strength after the Q3 GDP beat. Price is back above both EMAs and the fib 61.8 retracement near 1.3363, pressing the 1.3390 lower high, while ATR(14) near 29 pips has expanded on the breakout leg and the higher-low trendline from 1.3137 remains intact.
Support: 1.3363, 1.3338, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3390, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.3338 prior cap would mark the breakout as a false break
Hold above the fib 61.8 near 1.3363 keeps the recovery from the swing low intact
A close above the 1.3390 lower high reopens the 1.3419 swing high, and a break there resumes higher-high structure
US ECI and Fed speakers on Fri, then the BoE decision and vote split on Nov 5, could materially shift this read
Loss of the 1.3272 swing low would break the higher-low trendline