Every read JAFX AI made on the GBP/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:45 UTC
Downtrend stalling, early recovery · RSI 56 · price 1.33928
Oct 14 base; higher low 1.3272, higher high 1.3434.
Cable ran a lower-high/lower-low decline from the Aug 21 peak at 1.3675 into a double bottom at 1.3181/1.3137, completed by the Oct 16 break above 1.3285; the Sep 9 lower high at 1.3568 still caps the broader swing. This week's pullback held a higher low at 1.3272 on rising support as the UK Budget eased fiscal risk premium, and Friday printed a 6-week high at 1.3434 before closing back under the 50% retracement of the Aug–Oct decline fib near 1.3406. Price sits just above a flattening ema50 near 1.3366, with RSI mid-50s and no overbought reading.
Support: 1.3366, 1.3272, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3470, 1.3568
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 6-week high at 1.3434 and the 61.8% fib at 1.3470 opens the path toward the 1.3568 lower high
- Close back below the ema50 near 1.3366 and the 1.3272 higher low would break rising support and refocus the october low at 1.3137
- BoE Super Thursday Nov 5 (hike to 4.00% fully priced, 7-2 f/c): vote split and guidance could materially shift this read
- USD-side risk next week from ISM (Nov 2), US midterms (Nov 3) and Payrolls
12:16 UTC
Transitioning: Aug–Oct downtrend stalled, higher low forming · RSI 56 · price 1.33789
LH/LL chain from the Aug 20 high broken by the Oct 14 range break; higher low at 1.3272 holds above the 1.3137 October low.
The decline from the August high at 1.3675 bottomed on Oct 13, when price briefly broke below the late-September 1.3180–1.3310 range and reversed from the 1.3137 October low. The Oct 14 range break carried price to the October high at 1.3419, just above the 50% fib, where supply capped the move. Last week's pullback set a higher low at 1.3272 on the rising trendline, and price has since reclaimed EMA(50) near 1.3350, which is flattening after a six-week slide. Sterling's bid into next week's expected BoE hike and post-Budget gilt relief drove the rebound, while firm US data keeps a lid on the pair.
Support: 1.3350, 1.3272, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3470, 1.3675
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the October high at 1.3419 clears the 50% fib and opens the path to the 61.8% fib at 1.3470
- Close back below EMA(50) at 1.3350 and then the 1.3272 higher low would revive the Aug–Oct downtrend read
- A break of the 1.3137 October low would confirm a fresh lower low
- EMA(20) near 1.3330 crossing above EMA(50) would confirm the turn in daily trend structure
- BoE decision Thu Nov 5 12:00 UTC (25bp hike to 4.00% expected) could materially shift this read; a split vote or hold would test the rising trendline
- US ECI today 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing Mon could reprice Fed hike odds and move the pair toward the October high or the higher low