Higher lows through London and NY, rollover dip reclaimed.
The election-relief bid and softer USD lifted NZD/USD from 0.5557 to a 0.56373 session high late in NY, with higher lows at 0.55881 in London and 0.56017 at the NY low. The thin rollover gap dipped to 0.56166, near the 61.8% of the NY leg, and was fully reclaimed. Early Asia is now holding above the 0.56285 pre-gap low, just below the session high.
Support: 0.56285, 0.56166, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.5640
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56373 session high and the 0.5640 round number extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 0.56285 pre-gap low reopens the 0.56166 gap low and the 61.8% fib
Break below the 0.56017 NY low cuts the rising lows line and ends the intraday uptrend read
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; final NZ election count headlines remain a two-way risk
Higher highs and higher lows from 0.5556; rollover dip reclaimed.
Monday climbed steadily from the 0.5556 Asian low on NZD election relief and a softer USD. NY extended the move to a 0.5637 session high. A thin-liquidity rollover dip swept to the 0.5617 rollover low, at the 61.8% retrace and the rising trendline, before snapping back above 0.5630 into the new Asia session; RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 0.56259, 0.56166, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Break above the 0.5637 session high extends the HH chain toward the 0.5650 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5626 breakout lvl reopens the 0.5617 rollover low and the rising trendline
A close below the 0.5602 ny swing low breaks the intraday higher-low sequence
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 0.5602 NY low; rollover spike below 0.5621 reclaimed.
NZD extended its election-relief bid against a softer USD, with the late-NY rally topping at the 0.5637 session high. The thin-liquidity rollover spike to the 0.5617 spike low, near the 61.8% of the NY low–high fib, was fully reclaimed, and price is back at 0.5632 with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 0.56285, 0.56166, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 session high resumes the HH chain toward the 0.5650 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5628 late-NY low, then the 0.5617 spike low, confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5602 NY low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Monday's election-relief bid and a softer USD lifted NZD from the 0.5556 Asian low. The move printed a higher low at the 0.56017 swing low and a session high at 0.56373 late in NY hours. The spread-thin rollover dip to the 0.56166 rollover low tagged the 61.8% fib and the rising trendline before price recovered to 0.5626, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.56166, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56309, 0.56373
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56309 rollover hi puts the 0.56373 session high back in play
Break below the 0.56166 rollover low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.56017 swing low
Failure to hold the 0.56017 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read
Final NZ election count headlines remain an unscheduled driver
HH/HL chain off the 0.5602 NY low; shallow pullback from 0.5637 holding above 0.5620.
The election-relief bid extended after London close as the dollar slid. Price ran from the 0.5602 NY low to a session high at 0.56373, then faded into the rollover. The thin rollover dip to 0.56206 held near the 50% fib of that leg and has been fully recovered, with price sitting on the ema20 around 0.5629 and RSI(14) neutral near 60.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56183, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56206 rollover low exposes the 0.5618 prior high and the 61.8% fib
M15 close above the 0.56373 session high opens the path toward the 0.5650 cap zone
Loss of the 0.5602 NY low breaks the intraday HH/HL chain
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and any election-count headlines could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 0.5553 to 0.5637 session high; pullback now into the 38.2–50% zone.
The election-relief bid lifted NZD from 0.5553 in the Asia session through London and NY. A soft USD added a late-NY push to a 0.5637 session high after the 0.5602 NY swing low held. Price has faded since and gapped to a 0.5621 gap low at the daily rollover, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of that NY leg, with RSI(14) back near 48 and ATR at roughly 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56017, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56285, 0.56373
What it said to watch
Unfilled rollover gap: a reclaim of the 0.5629 gap fill reopens the 0.5637 session high
An M15 close below the 0.5621 gap low and the 50% fib of the NY leg exposes the 0.5602 NY swing low and the 0.5600 round number
Rollover trading is thin; final NZ election-count headlines in the Asia session could move this quickly
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled USD swing risk
22:11 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling off the high · RSI 56 · price 0.56285
Higher lows from Asia through NY; late-NY breakout now pulling back.
Monday's election-relief bid and a softer USD on lower oil and yields kept NZD/USD climbing through every session. The London-open dip to 0.5588 and the 0.5602 NY low both held, and a late-NY break of the 0.5626 breakout level printed a 0.5637 session high. Price is now easing back toward that level and ema20 after the NY close, with RSI(14) cooled to ~56.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5618, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.5637, 0.5658
What it said to watch
Holding the 0.5626 breakout level on the retest keeps the higher-low chain intact.
An M15 close below the rising trendline near 0.5621 shifts focus to the 0.5618 range top and the NY low→high fib 50–61.8% zone (0.5620–0.5615).
A close above the 0.5637 session high opens the path toward 0.5658, last week's high.
A break of the 0.5602 NY low would unwind the day's higher-low structure.
Thin Asia-open liquidity, final election count headlines and Tue 13:30 UTC US CPI could materially shift this read.
HH/HL chain from the 0.5588 London low; post-breakout consolidation above 0.5626.
NZD extended the election-relief move through 0.5600 as the dollar softened on lower oil and yields. Late in the NY session it cleared the 0.5626 prior high and printed a 0.5637 session high. Price is now drifting back toward the breakout area near the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) cooled to around 59 and ATR(14) at about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56259, 0.56214, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.5650, 0.5658
What it said to watch
Holding the 0.5626 prior high keeps the breakout intact; a close back below the 0.5621 pullback low points to a false break
A close above the 0.5637 session high opens the 0.5650 round number, then the 0.5658 last wk high cap
A break of the rising-lows trendline and the 0.5602 ny low would end the intraday HH/HL chain
NZ open and any final election-count headlines could shift this read; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next major USD risk
21:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling late NY · RSI 70 · price 0.56329
Higher lows since 0.5602 retest; tight consolidation under the session high.
Kiwi extended its election-relief gap higher as USD softened on falling oil and yields. London cleared the Asian high at 0.5602, and NY retested that level and held it. A late-NY breakout through the 0.5618 london high then ran to a 0.5637 session high. Price is now compressing in a 3-pip band above the 0.5631 consol low, with RSI(14) near 70 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56307, 0.56259, 0.56183
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5631 consol low puts the 0.5626 breakout level and 0.5618 london high back in play
Failure to hold 0.5618 breaks the higher-low trendline from the 0.5602 retest
Close above the 0.5637 session high opens the 0.5650-0.5660 upper cap flagged in the digest
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Final NZ election count headlines could unwind the relief premium
HH/HL chain from Asian low, tight coil under session high.
The election-relief gap higher set up a HH/HL climb from the 0.5553 Asian low, with the soft USD backdrop carrying late NY through the 0.5626 breakout lvl to a 0.5637 session high. Price is now coiling in a 2-pip band just under that high, RSI(14) cooling near 68. Dips have held above the rising trendline from the 0.5602 NY low.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5618, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.5626 breakout lvl turns the late-NY push into a false break
Loss of the 0.5618 prior high and the rising trendline exposes the 0.5602 NY low
Close above the 0.5637 session high opens the 0.5650 cap flagged in the NZD digest
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and the final NZ election count could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into the NY close · RSI 72 · price 0.56333
HH/HL chain since Asia; late-NY range breakout holding.
NZD extended the election-relief bid against a soft USD. The pair carved higher lows from the 0.5553 Asia low through the 0.5588 London dip and the 0.5602 NY low, then broke the 0.5620–0.5626 range top late in NY to a 0.5637 session high. Price is pausing just above the 0.5629 swing low into the Asia handover, with RSI(14) near 72 and ATR compressing to about 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.56293, 0.5626, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.5650
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.5626 range top, near the 38.2% of the ny leg fib at 0.5624, would turn the late-NY breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5602 ny low breaks the rising trendline and the HH/HL chain
Clearance of the 0.5637 session high puts the 0.5650 cap (digest 0.5650–0.5660 hurdle) in view
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, preceded by Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, plus the final NZ election count could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 71 · price 0.56327
HH/HL chain since the NY low, late-NY breakout above 0.5626.
Kiwi has built higher highs and higher lows since the weekly-open gap above Friday's 0.5539 close, helped by NZ election relief and a softer USD. A late-NY breakout through the 0.5626 prior high set a session high at 0.5637, and price is stalling just below it into the Asia handover with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 0.56259, 0.56214, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.5626 prior high keeps the breakout intact; a slip below the 0.5621 swing low and rising support would mark a failed breakout
A break of the 0.5602 NY low invalidates the intraday HH/HL chain
A close above the 0.5637 session high brings the 0.5650 round number into view, the base of the 0.5650-0.5660 cap
Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read, as could the final NZ election count
20:32 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late NY · RSI 76 · price 0.56332
Higher highs and higher lows since the weekend gap; new session high at 0.5637.
Kiwi gapped higher at the weekend open on NZ election relief and has built higher lows through every session since. The NY dip held at 0.5602 (ny low), just above the Asian range high, and a softer USD carried price through the 0.5618 london high to a 0.5637 session high in late NY. RSI(14) near 76 is extended but not extreme, with the 0.5621 swing low the latest higher low.
Support: 0.56214, 0.56183, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5621 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 0.5618 london high retest in focus
Loss of the 0.5602 ny low would mean NY has given back the break of the Asian range high
0.5650 thu high is the next overhead reference, cited as the upside cap in the macro digest
US October CPI, Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; thin liquidity into Asia session
20:17 UTC
Uptrend, extending into late NY · RSI 79 · price 0.56349
Higher highs and higher lows, fresh session high after a late-NY breakout.
NZD extended its election-relief bounce as the USD sagged on lower oil and yields. London cleared the 0.5602 Asian high, and the NY dip retested it at 0.5602 before a post-London-close breakout above the 0.5626 breakout level printed a new session high at 0.5635. The higher-low trendline and the 0.5621 swing low are intact, RSI(14) near 79 is stretched, and last week's high at 0.5650 sits about 15 pips overhead.
Support: 0.56259, 0.56214, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.56349, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5626 breakout level puts price back into the prior consolidation, with the 0.5621 swing low next
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 0.5602 Asian high would end the higher-low chain
Rejection at 0.5650 last week's high with RSI above 80 would mark a stall in the leg
Fed's Waller (Tue 09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Final NZ election count could unwind the relief bid
20:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late NY · RSI 72 · price 0.56313
Higher highs and higher lows from the London-open dip; fresh session high at 0.5634.
Election relief gapped NZD higher at the Sunday open, and the Asian rally carried it through 0.5600. The London-open dip held 0.5588, and NY printed a higher low at 0.5602 (ny low) before a late breakout through the 0.5626 prior high to a 0.5634 session high. The broader USD softness helped. RSI(14) sits near 72 heading into thin post-NY hours, and the 0.5650 round number is the next level above.
Support: 0.56259, 0.56216, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.5634, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5626 prior high puts the breakout at risk of a false break
A close below the 0.5621 swing low (38.2% fib of the NY move) breaks the late-session higher-low chain
A break of the higher lows trendline and the 0.5602 ny low would end the intraday HH/HL sequence
A move through the 0.5634 session high leaves 0.5650 round number as the next test
Waller (Tue 09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) sit beyond the next few hours but could reset this structure
19:47 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs through all sessions · RSI 74 · price 0.56287
HH/HL chain; late-NY breakout to new session high.
NZD opened with a weekend gap higher on election relief and climbed through Asia. London broke the Asian range high near 0.5602, and the NY dip found demand at 0.5602, the ny low, on the trendline support. Softer USD on US-Iran hopes then drove a late-NY breakout above the 0.5618 prior high to a 0.5634 session high. RSI(14) at 74 is warm but not extreme. ATR sits near 3 pips.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.5634, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5618 prior high, the 50% fib of the NY leg, turns the breakout into a false break
A break below the 0.5602 ny low and the trendline support ends the HL chain
0.5650 round number (0.5650–0.5660 cap zone) is next above the 0.5634 session high
Fed's Waller (Tue 09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from the Asia open; session high 0.5626 tested twice.
The weekend election result gapped NZDUSD ~26 pips higher at the Asia open, and a softer USD has since driven a rising-lows chain at 0.5588 in London and the 0.5602 NY low. Price is pressing the 0.5626 session high for a second time on thin late-NY ranges, with RSI(14) near 72 and 0.5621 as the NY pullback pivot.
Support: 0.5621, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56259, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5626 session high puts the 0.5630 round number in play
Loss of the 0.5621 NY pullback low exposes the 0.5614–0.5617 zone of the NY leg fib
Break of the rising-lows line and the 0.5602 NY low would end the higher-low sequence
Election special-vote headlines during the Asia session could reverse the gap move
Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (13:30 UTC) on Tuesday could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading late NY · RSI 69 · price 0.56219
Higher highs and higher lows since the gap-up open; fresh session high at 0.5626.
NZD gapped up about 26 pips from Friday's 0.5539 close on NZ election relief. A soft USD then extended the higher-low chain through Asia, London and NY. NY held its 0.5602 swing low and broke the 0.5618 prior high to a 0.5626 session high, and late-NY candles are now compressing just below it in thin trade, with RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 0.56183, 0.56017, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56259, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5618 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5602 swing low and the higher-low trendline breaks the intraday HH/HL chain
Clearance of the 0.5626 session high puts the 0.5650 last wk high zone in view
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher lows 0.5553 / 0.5588 / 0.5602, new session high 0.5626.
Monday opened with a ~26-pip weekend gap higher on NZ election relief and a softer USD. Price has printed higher lows ever since, from the Asian low at 0.5553 to the London low at 0.5588 and the NY swing low at 0.5602. Late NY cleared the 0.5618 prior high to a session high at 0.5626, and ATR(14) has compressed to ~3 pips after London close.
Support: 0.56183, 0.56017, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56259, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.5618 prior high turns the late-NY breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5602 NY swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
0.5626 session high is the first cap; a close above it opens the 0.5650 round number
London low at 0.5588 is the last higher low; a break below it signals the election-relief bounce is unwinding
Asia session headlines on the final NZ election count could reprice the relief move
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the next major event risk for this structure
18:32 UTC
Uptrend, fresh highs late NY · price 0.56248
Higher lows since weekly open; prior high 0.5618 broken.
NZDUSD gapped higher at the weekly open on NZ election relief and USD softness. It has since printed higher lows through Asia, London and NY, and the NY low at 0.5602 held as a retest of the Asian high and 0.5600 round number. Late NY cleared the 0.5618 prior high to a 0.5625 session high, with RSI(14) near 70 and ATR at roughly 3.6 pips as liquidity thins.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5602, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5618 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 0.5602 NY low breaks the rising-lows trendline and the higher-low chain
0.5650 psych sits at the base of the 0.5650–0.5660 cap flagged in the macro read; area to watch for rejection or break
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT and the final NZ election count could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since the Sunday gap; NY broke the London high.
NZDUSD gapped higher at the open on NZ election relief and a softer USD, then built higher lows all day. The early-NY dip found demand at 0.5602, retesting the Asian high and the 0.5600 handle, before NY cleared the 0.5618 London high to a 0.5623 session high. RSI(14) is near 68 and bar ranges are narrowing into the late NY session.
Support: 0.56183, 0.56017, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56228, 0.5665
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5618 london high turns the NY breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5602 asian high and the rising lows line exposes the 0.5588 pullback low
Extension above the 0.5623 session high puts the 0.5650–0.5665 last wk high zone in play
Headlines on Iran talks or the final NZ election count could shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the next scheduled risk event
18:04 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs intact into late NY · RSI 65 · price 0.56207
HH/HL chain since the weekly-open gap; late-NY break above 0.5618.
NZD gapped about 26 pips higher at the weekly open on election relief, then stepped up through Asia, London and NY and cleared the 0.5600 handle. After London close, price broke the 0.5618 prior high and printed a 0.5623 session high. RSI(14) sits near 65 and rising support from the Asian low is intact.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5602, 0.5588
Resistance: 0.56228, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5618 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5602 NY swing low breaks the HL chain and rising support
Below the 0.5588 London low, most of the London–NY advance is unwound
Above the 0.5623 session high, the 0.5650 last wk high is the next cap flagged in the digest
Waller (Tue 09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Uptrend, fresh session high · RSI 64 · price 0.56203
The weekend gap higher on NZ election relief extended through Asia and London as a steady HH/HL uptrend, clearing the Asian high and 0.5600 round number while the USD softened. The 0.5602 swing low held the mid-session pullback, and late NY printed a session high at 0.5621. RSI(14) sits near 64, not stretched.
Support: 0.56183, 0.56017, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56209, 0.5650
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.5618 prior high marks the session-high push as a false break
Loss of the 0.5602 swing low breaks the HL chain and rising support, putting 0.5600 and the 0.5588 london low in play
0.5650 last week's high is the next reference above the session high
Trump–Qatar PM meeting headlines and Tue US CPI (13:30 UTC) could materially shift USD tone
17:17 UTC
Uptrend since the Monday gap, flattening into a range · RSI 54 · price 0.56157
Higher lows from 0.5588 and 0.5602; range 0.5602–0.5618 since London midday, retesting the top.
NZD gapped about 26 pips higher at the Monday open on NZ election relief and a softer USD. London cleared the Asian high near 0.5602, and price has ranged 0.5602–0.5618 since. The NY dip to the 0.5602 ny low held between the 50% and 61.8% retracement, and after London close price is back pressing the 0.5618 session high with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.56085, 0.56017, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56183, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 session high breaks the range; the 0.5650 cap zone is the next overhead reference
Holding the 0.5608 pivot low keeps price in the upper half of the range
Loss of the 0.5602 ny low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5588 london low
Barkin (17:15 GMT) and Trump–Qatar meeting headlines could move USD; US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the larger event risk
Higher lows from the London low; NY dip held the Asian high retest.
Kiwi gapped higher at the weekly open on election relief and a soft dollar, cleared the Asian high at 0.5602 in London and is now back at the 0.5618 session high. The NY dip to 0.5602 retested the Asian high and held the rising support from the London low, a ~55% pullback on the london leg fib. RSI(14) at 59 is not stretched.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5602, 0.5588
Resistance: 0.56183, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 session high extends the higher-high chain, with the 0.5650 cap zone the next reference
Close back below the 0.5609 range floor reopens the 0.5602 asian high; a break there loses rising support and exposes the 0.5588 london low
Fed's Barkin (17:15 GMT) and Trump–Qatar meeting headlines could jolt USD in the next few bars; US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the larger risk
Any final NZ election count that erodes the coalition majority could unwind the gap
16:46 UTC
Uptrend, NY dip recovered · RSI 56 · price 0.56148
Higher lows since the gap-up open; NY pullback held 0.5602, price back under the session high.
NZD gapped higher at the weekly open on NZ election relief and has climbed from 0.5553 through Asia and London. The NY-session dip to the 0.5602 ny low held above the 0.5600 round number and the rising trendline, and price is back at 0.5615, a few pips under the 0.5618 session high with the midday low at 0.5609 below.
Support: 0.56085, 0.56017, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56183
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 0.5650-60 cap zone
Break back below the 0.5609 midday low and the 0.5602 ny low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 0.5600 round number would bring the 50-61.8% fib zone of the London-NY leg (0.5600-0.5599) into play
Barkin at 17:15 GMT and the Trump-Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT on Iran could shift USD and risk tone within the next few bars
Final NZ election count could move the pair at any time
16:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below day high · RSI 54 · price 0.56141
HH/HL chain intact; Asia high break retested and held.
The weekend gap higher on NZ election relief extended through Asia. London broke the Asian high at 0.5602 off the 0.5588 london low, and NY printed the day high at 0.5618 before a pullback retested 0.5602 and was absorbed. Price is back near 0.5614 with RSI(14) neutral at 54, the 0.5609 swing low and rising support underneath, and ATR around 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5602, 0.5588
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5620
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5618 day high, or the 0.5620 round number, extends the HH chain; failure there keeps a 0.5602–0.5618 range
Break of the 0.5609 swing low and the rising support from the 0.5588 london low exposes the 0.5602 asia high again
Close back below the 0.5602 asia high turns the London breakout into a false break
Trump–Qatar PM meeting 17:00 GMT and Fed's Barkin 17:15 GMT could shift USD into the NY afternoon; US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the larger risk
HH/HL chain since Monday gap; NY pullback held the Asian high.
NZD gapped higher at the open on NZ election relief, with USD softer on risk appetite. Price held a higher-low chain through London, broke the Asian high at 0.5602 and set a session high at 0.56183 in the first hour of NY. The NY pullback stalled at 0.5602, a retest of the Asian high that also sits on the rising lows line, and price is back at 0.5613 with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.5602, 0.5588
Resistance: 0.56183, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5602 asian high breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.5588 london low
Close above 0.56183 session high extends the HH chain toward the 0.5650 cap zone
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT and Fed's Barkin at 17:15 GMT could move USD after London close
Lower highs off 0.5618, NY low holding above Asian high.
The Sunday open gapped 26 pips higher and the move kept running through Asia and London on election relief and a softer USD. The session high printed at 0.5618 at the NY open. The NY pullback retested the Asian high, putting the NY low at 0.5602 and holding above 0.5600 psych, a 23.6% retrace of the day's leg. Price now sits under a lower high at 0.5611, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.56017, 0.5600, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56108, 0.56183
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5588 london low and the 38.2% retrace
Close above the 0.5611 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.5618 session high
Fed's Barkin at 17:15 UTC and the final NZ election count could shift this read; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger event risk
NY pullback from session high, holding above Asian high.
The election-relief gap-up and a steady Asia/London grind lifted NZDUSD to a 0.5618 session high early in the NY session, where it was rejected. The pullback has so far held the 0.5602 Asian high, inside the 50–61.8% retrace of the London leg. RSI(14) has eased to 44 and price is back under the ema20 at 0.5612, while the higher-low chain from the 0.5588 London low is still intact.
Support: 0.5602, 0.5588
Resistance: 0.5612, 0.5618
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5600/asian high breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5588 london low
Reclaim of the 0.5612 ema20 puts the 0.5618 session high back in play
Fed's Barkin at 17:15 UTC and any final NZ election count update could shift this read; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger event
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, NY pullback in progress · RSI 40 · price 0.56035
Lower highs off the 0.5618 session high; 0.5608 range floor broken, price retesting the Asian high.
Monday gapped up from Friday's 0.5539 close on NZ election relief. London broke the Asian high at 0.5602 and ran to a 0.5618 session high at the NY open, where it met rejection. Price has since cut through the 0.5608 range floor on a series of lower highs and is back at the Asian high and 0.5600 psych/EMA50, the 50% retracement of the London leg, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.5602, 0.5588
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.5618
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 asian high exposes the 61.8% fib and the 0.5588 london low
Recovery back above the 0.5609 range floor breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.5618 session high back in play
Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 UTC and Fed's Barkin at 17:15 UTC could shift USD into the late NY session
15:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 40 · price 0.56047
London-NY range floor at 0.5608 broken in NY hours; first lower low under the 0.5618 session high.
The weekend gap up from 0.5539 on NZ election relief, helped by a soft USD, ran through Asia and London to a 0.5618 session high at the London-NY transition. NY hours have broken the 0.5608 range floor, putting price below EMA20 at the 38.2–50% retrace of the London leg. The 0.5600 psych/ema50 level and the 61.8% retrace sit just underneath.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5588
Resistance: 0.5608, 0.56183
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5608 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych/ema50, the 61.8% of the London leg, exposes the 0.5588 london low
Reclaiming the 0.5618 session high would resume the intraday HH chain
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT and Barkin at 17:15 GMT could move USD; US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the larger risk
HH/HL chain off the weekend gap, now an 11-pip range 0.5607–0.5618.
NZD gapped up 26 pips at the weekly open on NZ election relief. Asia extended to 0.5602, and London added to the 0.5618 session high as USD softened. Since mid-London price has held a tight 0.5607–0.5618 range, and the NY session is now pressing the range low with RSI(14) near 42 and price back under EMA20.
Support: 0.5607, 0.5600, 0.5588
Resistance: 0.5618
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5607 range low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the Monday rally fib 38.2% near 0.5594
Failure at the 0.5588 london low unwinds the entire London leg
M15 close above the 0.5618 session high resumes the HH chain
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT and Fed's Barkin at 17:15 GMT could shift USD and risk tone
Headlines on the final NZ election count could reverse the gap-driven move
HH/HL from Asia gap-up, now a tight range below session high.
Kiwi gapped up at the Asia open on NZ election relief and a softer USD, climbing from 0.5553 and clearing the asian high at 0.5602 during London. Since late London it has compressed in a 10-pip range between 0.56085 and 0.5618. The NY open pushed to a new session high at 0.56183 and was rejected, with RSI(14) back near 50.
Support: 0.56085, 0.56025, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56183, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56085 range floor opens a retest of the 0.5602 asian high and the rising trendline
Close above the 0.56183 session high resumes the HH chain toward the 0.5650 cap zone
Hold of the 0.5588 london low keeps the Asia-to-London higher-low sequence intact
Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar PM meeting (17:00 GMT) during NY hours could shift USD tone and this range
London breakout above the Asian high, now ranging 0.5609–0.5618 in NY.
Kiwi gapped higher at the weekly open on NZ election relief and a softer USD. London dipped to a London low at 0.5588, then cleared the Asian high at 0.5603. The NY session high at 0.5618 drew a rejection back into a tight 0.5609–0.5618 range, with price pinned to EMA20 and RSI(14) flat near 54.
Support: 0.56085, 0.56025, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56183, 0.5620
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5609 range floor exposes the Asian high at 0.5603, near the 50% fib of the London leg
Close above the 0.5618 session high resumes the higher-high chain toward the 0.5620 round number
Loss of the London low at 0.5588 would unwind the London breakout
Fed's Goolsbee (15:00 GMT), the Trump–Qatar PM meeting (17:00 GMT) and Barkin (17:15 GMT) could shift USD during NY hours
Final NZ election count is an unscheduled headline risk to the relief move
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in early NY · RSI 52 · price 0.56102
Higher highs/higher lows since the Asia open, now a tight range above 0.5600.
Monday gapped about 26 pips above Friday's close. On NZ election relief and a softer USD, Asia ground up from 0.5553 and London cleared the Asian high and 0.5600 round number on a rising trendline. Early NY has compressed into a 10-pip box between the 0.5609 session low and the 0.5618 session high, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 0.56085, 0.5600, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56183, 0.5565
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5609 session low opens a retest of the 0.5600 round number
Loss of 0.5600 and the rising trendline exposes the 0.5588 london low, near the 38.2% of the Monday rally
Close above the 0.5618 session high resumes the HH chain toward the 0.5650–0.5660 cap zone
Fed's Goolsbee and Barkin plus the Trump–Qatar PM meeting during NY hours could shift USD tone
Final NZ election count could reverse the relief move
Higher lows since the gap; compressing 0.5608–0.5618 below the session high.
Kiwi gapped about 26 pips higher at the weekly open on NZ election relief and a softer USD. London cleared the 0.5602 Asian high and stair-stepped to a 0.5618 session high early in the NY session. The last three hours have compressed between the 0.5608 swing low and the session high, RSI(14) neutral near 59.
Support: 0.56085, 0.56025, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56183, 0.5620, 0.5658
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 swing low and the rising trendline turns the read to a deeper pullback toward the 0.5602 Asian high
Loss of the 0.5588 London low would erase the London breakout and point to a 50% fib retracement of the gap rally
Acceptance above the 0.5618 session high and the 0.5620 round number opens the path toward the 0.5658 Thu high
Fed's Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) and Barkin (17:15 UTC), plus Trump–Qatar Iran headlines at 17:00 GMT, could shift USD tone this session
Final NZ election count could reprice the election relief behind the gap
Higher lows since London open; tight 0.5609–0.5617 range into NY.
NZD gapped higher at the weekly open on NZ election relief and a softer USD, then climbed through Asia. London held 0.5588 (london low) and broke the asian high at 0.5602. Since the 0.5617 session high, price has compressed in a 0.5609–0.5617 range above EMA20 into the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR about 4 pips.
Support: 0.56085, 0.56025, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56167, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5617 session high reopens the path toward the 0.5650 cap flagged in the macro digest
Break of the 0.5609 range low and the London trend line exposes the asian high at 0.5602, near the 38.2–50% fib of the London leg
Loss of the 0.5588 london low unwinds the London advance and breaks the higher-low chain
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT, Fed speakers Goolsbee (15:00) and Barkin (17:15), and any final NZ vote-count news could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since Asian low; tight 0.5608–0.5617 coil into NY open.
Election relief carried NZD from the 0.5553 Asian low, and London broke the Asian range high near 0.5602 to print a 0.5617 session high. Price has held a 0.5608 higher low and is now coiling 0.5608–0.5617 on the London trendline into early NY, with RSI(14) cooled to 56.
Support: 0.56085, 0.5600, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56167, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 higher low breaks the London trendline and the HL chain
Close above the 0.5617 session high opens the 0.5650 cap zone
Loss of the 0.5600 round number puts the 0.5588 London low and 38.2% fib near 0.5592 in play
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC), plus the Trump-Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT, could shift this read
HH/HL chain above the broken Asian high, shallow pullback off session high.
Monday gapped about 26 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close. The 0.5553 Asian low held, and London broke the asian high at 0.5602 before printing a session high at 0.5617 on election-relief NZD demand. Into the NY session the 0.5609 swing low has held the latest dip along the london trendline, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.56085, 0.56025, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56167, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5609 swing low and the london trendline breaks the HL sequence
Loss of the 0.5602 asian high puts the 0.5588 london low back in play
Clean break of the 0.5617 session high opens the path toward the 0.5650 hurdle flagged in the digest
Fed speakers (Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and the Trump-Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift USD tone this session
Election special-vote updates are unscheduled NZD risk; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next major catalyst
HH/HL chain from the Asian low; tight 0.5609–0.5617 consolidation into NY open.
NZD gapped higher at the Asia open on election relief and built HH/HLs from the 0.5553 Asian low. The London open dip held at 0.5588 (london low), and price then broke the 0.5602 asian high to a 0.5617 session high. Since then it has compressed above the 0.5609 intraday low, with RSI(14) cooling to 63 and rising support intact.
Support: 0.56085, 0.5602, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56167, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5609 intraday low breaks rising support and the HL chain, exposing a retest of the 0.5602 asian high
Close above the 0.5617 session high opens the path toward 0.5650, last week's high (last wk high)
Failure to hold the 0.5588 london low would unwind the London breakout
Fed speakers through NY hours and the Trump-Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift the USD leg; election count updates are unscheduled NZD risk
12:47 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 61 · price 0.56095
HH/HL chain since London low; Asian range high broken and held.
Monday opened with a ~26-pip gap above Friday's post-NFP close on election-relief NZD demand. London broke the Asian high at 0.5603 and ran to a 0.5617 session high. Price is now easing toward the 0.5607 swing low and the London trendline into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) cooling to ~61.
Support: 0.56073, 0.56025, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56167, 0.5620
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5607 swing low breaks the London trendline and exposes the Asian high at 0.5603 (50% fib)
Clearance of the 0.5617 session high opens the 0.5620 round number
Loss of the 0.5588 London low would unwind the session's HH/HL chain
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) during NY hours could shift this read
Unscheduled election count updates (~14% of votes uncounted) remain headline risk for NZD
Gap-up rally broke above the Asian high in London; London trendline lost, now a tight consolidation.
NZD gapped higher at the Sunday open on election relief. The rally from 0.5553 cleared the 0.5603 Asian high in London and printed a 0.5617 session high. The London trendline gave way at 11:45 UTC, and price is now compressing on a 0.5610 pullback low into NY, RSI(14) cooled to ~59.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56073, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56167, 0.5620
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5607 swing low exposes a retest of the 0.5603 asian high
Close above the 0.5617 session high reopens the 0.5620 round number
Fed speakers (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift USD tone
Election count updates (~14% uncounted) remain an unscheduled NZD risk
12:17 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling off the high · RSI 63 · price 0.56102
Higher-low chain since Asia; London broke the Asian high, now pulling back.
NZD extended its election-relief rally from the weekend gap above Friday's 0.5539 close. London cleared the Asian high at 0.56025 and printed a session high at 0.56167 in late London. Price is now easing to 0.5610 and sits on rising support from the 0.55881 pullback low and the 0.55938 London low.
Support: 0.56025, 0.55938, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56167, 0.5620
What it said to watch
M15 close below rising support near 0.5608 breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.56025 Asian high and 0.5600 puts the 0.55938 London low and 0.55881 pullback low back in play
M15 close above the 0.56167 session high extends the London breakout toward the 0.5620 round number
NY session Fed speakers (Bowman 13:40 GMT, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and election count updates could shift this read
Higher lows since London open, Asian range broken to the upside.
NZD gapped higher at the open on NZ election relief and climbed through Asia. London broke the 0.5602 Asian high and printed a 0.5617 session high, with the higher-low chain intact. Price is stalling just below that high mid-London, RSI(14) has cooled to 64 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.56073, 0.56025, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56167, 0.5650
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5617 session high opens the path toward the 0.5650 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.5607 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
A return below the 0.5602 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break; the 38.2% fib near 0.5593 sits just above the 0.5588 London low
NY open and Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT could shift USD; unscheduled election-count updates are NZD risk
Asian range broken higher in London, fresh session high.
NZD gapped up about 26 pips at the open on election-relief buying and rallied through Asia to the 0.5602 Asian high. The London low at 0.5588 held, and mid-London broke the Asian high to a 0.5616 session high. RSI(14) is near 68 and ATR is around 4 pips, so the move is pressing higher without being stretched.
Support: 0.56073, 0.56025, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56156, 0.5650
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.5602 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the breakout read
Losing the 0.5607 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the intraday higher-low chain
A break of the 0.5616 session high opens space toward the 0.5650 zone flagged as the overhead hurdle
Fed speakers (Bowman 13:40 GMT) and election vote-count updates could shift this read into NY
11:17 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs through London · RSI 71 · price 0.56118
HH/HL chain; London broke above Asian range high and holds above it.
NZDUSD gapped higher at the weekly open on NZ election relief. Buyers defended the 0.5588 london low twice at London open, and price then broke the 0.5600 asian high, printing a 0.5594 higher low on the way. Price is now pressing the 0.5614 session high mid-London, with RSI(14) near 71, which is warm but normal for the trend.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55938, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56137, 0.5565
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5600 asian high returns price to the Asian range and puts the breakout in doubt
Loss of the 0.5594 higher low breaks the London HH/HL chain; the 0.5588 london low is the next reference
Clearance of the 0.5614 session high opens the path to last week's 0.5650 prior cap
China CPI later today and Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Uptrend, extending in London · RSI 71 · price 0.56105
HH/HL chain from the Monday gap; Asian high broken in London.
NZDUSD gapped up from Friday's 0.5539 close on NZ election relief. It has built higher lows along the rising trendline since the 0.5553 Asia dip, and the gap remains unfilled. Mid-London, price broke the 0.5602 Asian high and printed a session high at 0.5612, with RSI(14) near 71. The London dip at 0.5594 and the London low at 0.5588 (38.2% of the Asia rally fib) both held.
Support: 0.5602, 0.5594, 0.5588
Resistance: 0.5612, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5602 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.5588 london low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Extension toward the 0.5650 prior cap (last week's failed rally high): area to watch for rejection or break
China CPI and the final NZ election count could materially shift this read. Fed speakers start 13:40 GMT, shortly after NY open
10:47 UTC
Uptrend, extending at session high · RSI 71 · price 0.56108
Higher highs and higher lows since the Sunday gap; Asian high broken in London.
NZD gapped about 26 pips higher at the Sunday open on election relief and climbed from the 0.5553 sunday low through Asia to an asian high at 0.5602. London dipped to a 0.5588 london low, then broke above the Asian range to a 0.5612 session high. RSI(14) near 71 is warm but not extreme, and bar ranges are compressing at the top.
Support: 0.5602, 0.5588, 0.5553
Resistance: 0.5612, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Holding 0.5600–0.5602 (asian high) keeps the London breakout intact; a return inside the Asian range weakens it
An M15 close below the 0.5588 london low breaks the higher-low chain from the sunday low
Extension beyond the 0.5612 session high runs into the 0.5650–0.5660 last wk cap
China CPI later today and the final NZ election count (~14% outstanding) could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT, early in NY hours, is a USD-side risk to the move
10:32 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening at session high · RSI 73 · price 0.56108
Higher-low chain through London; Asian high broken and held.
Sunday's election-relief gap-up held, and the Asia session climbed from the 0.5553 asian low to 0.5602. The London open dip found demand at 0.5588, the london low, and higher lows followed. Price then broke the asian high and reached a session high at 0.5612. RSI(14) is near 73 and the last bars are compressing just under that high.
Support: 0.56025, 0.55881, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56118, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.5602 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5588 london low ends the higher-low chain; the 50% fib of the Asia-London rally sits near 0.5583
Extension above the 0.5612 session high leaves the 0.5650 thursday cap as the next reference
China CPI later today and the final NZ election count could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman speaks 13:40 GMT
10:17 UTC
Uptrend, extending at session high · RSI 69 · price 0.56113
HH/HL chain since the weekend gap; London broke the Asian high.
NZD gapped about 26 pips higher at the weekly open on coalition-win relief, then climbed from the 0.5553 Asian low along a rising trendline. Mid-London, price cleared the 0.5602 Asian high and is pressing a 0.5611 session high. RSI(14) is near 69 and ATR is about 5 pips; the London low at 0.5588 sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg.
Support: 0.5602, 0.55938, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56114, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5602 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5594 swing low and the 0.5588 London low breaks the HL chain and the rising trendline
Prior cap at 0.5650 is the next reference if the session high gives way
China CPI later Monday and the final NZ election count could materially shift this read
Asian high broken in London, session high at 0.5610.
The Sunday gap higher on NZ election relief extended through Asia from the 0.5553 low in a clean HH/HL chain. London cleared the Asian high at 0.5602 and printed a session high at 0.5610, with RSI(14) near 68 and dips into the 0.5588 London low absorbed earlier.
Support: 0.56025, 0.55938, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56103, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the Asian high at 0.5602 would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5594 swing low, then the 0.5588 London low, breaks the HL chain and the rising trendline
Clearance of the session high at 0.5610 leaves last week's prior cap at 0.5650 as the next reference
China CPI, the final NZ election count and Fed speakers in the NY session (Bowman 13:40 GMT) could materially shift this read
London broke above the Asian high; HH/HL chain intact.
NZDUSD opened Monday with a gap above Friday's 0.5539 close on NZ election relief, then climbed from 0.5553 to the Asian high at 0.5603. London open broke through it to a session high at 0.5607, with a higher low at 0.5594 above the 0.5588 swing low. RSI(14) near 60 is not stretched, and the 0.5588 swing low sits at the 38.2% fib of the Monday rally.
Support: 0.56025, 0.55938, 0.55881
Resistance: 0.56068
What it said to watch
Holding above the Asian high at 0.5603 keeps the London breakout valid; slipping back below it marks a false break
An M15 close below the 0.5594 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 0.5588 swing low, at the 38.2% fib of the Monday rally, shifts the read to a deeper retracement
Rejection at the 0.5607 session high would leave a double-top risk near 0.5600
China CPI later Monday, NZ election count headlines and Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher-high/higher-low chain from Asia; tight London band 0.5594–0.5604.
The week opened with a gap above Friday's 0.5539 close, and Asia climbed from the 0.5553 asia low to 0.5602 on NZ election relief. Early London printed only a marginal new session high at 0.5604 and is compressing in a 0.5594–0.5604 band around 0.5600 psych, resting on the rising trendline with the 0.5588 swing low as the last higher low; RSI(14) has cooled to ~54.
Support: 0.55938, 0.55881, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5594 london low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5588 swing low and the 38.2% fib near 0.5585
Acceptance above the 0.5604 session high extends the higher-high sequence
China CPI and the final NZ election count (~14% of votes outstanding) could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT opens a run of NY-session Fed speakers that could move USD
Unfilled gap back to 0.5539 stays below the 0.5553 asia low if the rally unwinds
09:17 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 57 · price 0.56007
Higher lows since gap open; London retesting Asia high.
NZD gapped up about 26 pips at the weekly open on election relief and climbed from the asia low at 0.5553 to 0.5603 during the Asia session. London dipped to 0.5588 before buyers lifted it back to the session high, with a higher low at 0.5594 and RSI(14) neutral near 57. Price is holding above the 61.8% level of the Asia rally fib.
Support: 0.5594, 0.55881, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56034, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Repeated stalls at the 0.5603 session high leave a flat top. A close above it extends the leg toward the 0.5650 prior cap.
A close below the 0.5594 higher low, then the 0.5588 london low, breaks the higher-low chain along the asia trendline
Soft China CPI later today or a wobble in the final NZ count could unwind the election bid
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT and the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift USD during NY hours
Asia rally capped at 0.5603; early London ranging 0.5588–0.5602.
Monday opened about 26 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close on NZ election relief, and the Asia session ran from the 0.5553 asian low to a 0.5603 session high. Early London is holding 0.5588–0.5602 with two rejections at 0.5601. The rising trendline and a higher low at 0.5594 are intact, and RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 0.55938, 0.55881, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56025, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5603 session high ends the London range; the 0.5650 thu cap is the next reference
Loss of the 0.5588 london low and the rising trendline turns the read to a deeper retracement of the Asia rally
Below 0.5594 higher low, the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally near 0.5584 comes into view
China CPI later today and any NZ election count headlines could materially shift this read
Fed speakers (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 UTC) during NY hours are a USD risk
NZD gapped higher at the weekly open on NZ election relief, then climbed steadily through the Asia session from the 0.5553 Asia low to a 0.5602 session high, holding a rising trendline. Into the first hour of London, price has stalled under 0.5600–0.5602 after three rejections at the session high. Dips have held at the 0.5588 pullback low and the 0.5594 swing low, and RSI(14) near 56 shows momentum flattening.
Support: 0.55938, 0.55881, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56025
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5602 session high breaks the range and extends the HH chain
Failure to hold the 0.5588 pullback low breaks the higher-low sequence and the rising trendline
A break of the 0.5594 swing low shifts the read to a rejection at 0.5600
China CPI and the final NZ election count could materially shift this read
Fed speakers Bowman and Goolsbee during NY hours are a USD-side risk
08:32 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 0.5600 · RSI 55 · price 0.55946
HH/HL chain since the Asia low; tight range below the session high.
NZD gapped up from Friday's 0.5539 close and rallied about 49 pips through the Asia session, from the 0.5553 asian low to a 0.5602 session high, on NZ election relief. Early London is stalling below 0.5600 after a second rejection near the session high at 0.5602. Price is holding just above the ema20 at 0.5593 and the 0.5588 swing low, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 55.
Support: 0.55926, 0.55881, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56025
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5588 swing low breaks the HL chain and turns the two tests of 0.5602 into a double top.
A close above the 0.5602 session high resumes the uptrend.
A drop through 0.5578, the fib 50% of the Asia leg, exposes the 0.5553 asian low.
China CPI later today and the final NZ election count (about 14% of votes outstanding) could materially shift this read.
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) are NY-session risk for USD.
08:17 UTC
Uptrend, testing 0.5600 · RSI 61 · price 0.55995
Higher highs and higher lows since the weekly open; early London retesting the session high.
Kiwi gapped about 26 pips higher at the weekly open as coalition-majority results trimmed political risk premium. It then climbed steadily through the Asian session from the 0.5553 Monday low to a 0.5602 session high. The pre-London dip held the 0.5588 pullback low, and the first London bars are back retesting the 0.5600 round number with RSI(14) at 61, not stretched.
Support: 0.55881, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56025
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5588 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Acceptance above the 0.5602 session high extends the Asian leg; failure there leaves a double top under 0.5600
China CPI later Monday could materially shift this read
Fed speakers from Bowman (13:40 GMT) in the NY session are a USD risk
A loss of the trendline exposes the 0.5553 Monday low near the 0.5555 Friday post-NFP high
HH/HL chain from Asian low; London-open higher low at 0.5588.
NZD gapped higher at the weekly open on preliminary NZ election results showing a coalition majority, then climbed through the Asia session from the 0.5553 Asian low to a 0.5603 Asian high. Demand absorbed two London-open dips at the 0.5588 London low, and price is back testing the 0.5600 round number with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 0.55881, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56025
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56025 Asian high extends the HH chain beyond the 0.5600 round number
Break below the 0.5588 London low ends the higher-low sequence and puts the rising trendline in play
Loss of the rising trendline exposes the Asian low at 0.5553, near the 61.8% fib of the Asia rally
China CPI later today and Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia; shallow pullback held 0.5588.
The week opened with a ~26-pip gap up on the NZ coalition result and a fading USD. Price dipped to 0.5553, then built a steady higher-high, higher-low chain along a rising trendline to a 0.5603 session high in the Asia session. The pullback low at 0.5588 held twice, above the 38.2% fib at 0.5584, and price sits just under the 0.5600 round number into the London open with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 0.55881, 0.55837, 0.55654
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56025
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5603 session high extends the Asia uptrend into London.
A loss of the 0.5588 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and higher-low chain, exposing the 38.2% fib at 0.5584 and then the Sunday open at 0.5565.
China CPI later today and Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT could materially shift this read.
Asia HH/HL chain, shallow pullback off the asia high.
Asia opened with a 26-pip gap above Friday's 0.5539 close. Price then climbed in a steady HH/HL chain to a 0.5603 asia high, helped by the USD fade on Iran de-escalation and NZ coalition relief. Rejection at the 0.5600 round number pulled price back to a 0.5588 pullback low, which sits at EMA20 and holds above the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib, with London open about 30 minutes away.
Support: 0.55881, 0.55812, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56025
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5603 asia high clears the round-number rejection
Loss of the 0.5588 pullback low exposes the 0.5581 asia shelf near the 38.2% of the Asia leg
Break below the 0.5553 asia low would put the weekend gap fill toward 0.5539 in play
China CPI later today and Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from 0.5600 · RSI 61 · price 0.55906
Asia HH/HL chain broken at the trendline; first test of the 0.5588 swing low after rejection at the session high.
Monday opened about 26 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close. Asia then built a steady HH/HL climb from the 0.5553 asian low to a 0.5603 session high at the 0.5600 round number, as the USD faded post-NFP and tariff relief lifted risk. Rejection at the session high and a sharp bar into London open broke the asia trendline, putting price on the 0.5588 swing low and the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) cooled to ~61.
Support: 0.55885, 0.55812, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56025
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5588 swing low breaks the Asia HL chain and exposes the 0.5581 consol base near the 38.2% fib
Fresh print above the 0.5603 session high resumes the HH sequence through the 0.5600 round number
Loss of the 0.5553 asian low puts the gap back toward Friday's 0.5539 close in play
China CPI later today and Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT could materially shift this read
Asia HH/HL chain off the gap-up open, first pullback from session high.
Monday opened with a ~26-pip gap above Friday's 0.5539 close as the NZ election count showed a slim coalition majority and USD softened. Asia then built a steady HH/HL climb from 0.5553 to a session high at 0.5602, where price met rejection at the round number. The pullback has slipped just under the rally trendline and is holding the 0.5594 pullback low into the London open, RSI(14) cooled to ~59.
Support: 0.55935, 0.55885, 0.55779
Resistance: 0.56025
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5594 pullback low and the 0.5589 swing low turns the Asia climb into a lower-low pullback toward the 50% fib at 0.5578
M15 close back above the 0.5602 session high reasserts the Asia uptrend
Sustained trade below the rally trendline shifts the read from trend to consolidation
China CPI later today and final NZ election-count headlines could materially shift this read
London open liquidity may test the 0.5600 round number either way
HH/HL chain through Asia, first pullback off session high.
Monday gapped up ~26 pips from Friday's 0.5539 close on the NZ coalition result and a softer USD. Price then built a HH/HL chain through the Asia session from the 0.5553 Monday low to a 0.5603 session high. It has since slipped back under the 0.5600 round number and is sitting on the rising trendline near 0.5592, with RSI(14) easing to ~61.
Support: 0.55885, 0.55786, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56025
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5589 pullback low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising trendline
Next downside references are the 0.5579 swing low, then the 0.5553 Monday low; the gap to Friday's 0.5539 close remains unfilled
Acceptance above the 0.5603 session high resumes the Asia uptrend
London open in ~1h and China CPI later today could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Uptrend, RSI hot but not extreme · RSI 76 · price 0.56002
Higher-high/higher-low chain off Asian low, testing 0.5600.
Monday opened on a gap up from Friday's 0.5539 close as the slim Luxon coalition majority trimmed NZD political risk. Late in the Asia session, price has built a steady higher-low chain from 0.5553 to a 0.5603 session high and is now pressing the 0.5600 round number, with RSI(14) near 76.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55885, 0.5582
Resistance: 0.56025
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5600 round number shows rejection at the session high
Failure to hold the 0.55885 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Loss of the 0.5582 range base opens a deeper gap-fill move toward the 0.5565 open
China CPI later today and the London open could materially shift this read; Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT follow
06:17 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into round number · RSI 79 · price 0.56014
HH/HL chain from Monday's gap-up open, Asian range extending to new session high.
Monday opened with a gap up from Friday's 0.5539 close. The Asia session then climbed in a steady HH/HL chain from the 0.5553 Asian low to a 0.5602 session high, helped by relief over the NZ coalition result and a softer USD. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched as price tests the 0.5600 round number late in Asia, ahead of London open, with the rising trendline intact.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55885, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.5602, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5600 round number would mark the push to the session high as a failed probe
Loss of the 0.5589 swing low breaks both the HH/HL chain and the rising trendline, which opens the 50% fib of the Asian leg near 0.5578
Holding above the 0.5602 session high leaves the 0.5650 cap flagged in the macro read as the next reference
China CPI later today and the final NZ election tally could materially shift this read
A deeper unwind back to the 0.5553 Asian low would put Monday's gap-up at risk
06:04 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 77 · price 0.5598
Higher highs and higher lows off the session low, pressing the 0.5600 round number.
Monday opened with a ~26-pip gap above Friday's 0.5539 close on the NZ coalition result. Since the 0.5553 session low, Asia has built a steady higher-high, higher-low chain into 0.5598, now testing the 0.5600 round number with RSI(14) near 77. The rising trendline and the 0.5589 swing low sit directly under price.
Support: 0.5589, 0.5579, 0.5553
Resistance: 0.5600
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.5600 round number followed by an M15 close below the 0.5589 swing low would break the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Loss of the 0.5579 prior pivot exposes the 0.5553 session low and the open gap toward Friday's levels
China CPI later today and the London open could materially shift this read
Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT and the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT are USD event risk for the NY session
05:47 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 77 · price 0.55953
HH/HL chain off the weekend gap through the Asia session, pressing the session high.
Monday opened with a ~26-pip gap above Friday's 0.5539 close on NZ coalition-majority headlines and a softer USD. Asia has extended it in a steady HH/HL chain from the 0.5553 session low to the 0.5597 session high. RSI(14) near 77 is stretched into the London open, with the 0.5600 round number overhead and the rising trendline at the 0.5589 swing low underneath.
Support: 0.5589, 0.5581, 0.5553
Resistance: 0.5597, 0.5600
What it said to watch
A clean break of the 0.5597 session high and the 0.5600 round number extends the HH chain into the London open
An M15 close below the 0.5589 swing low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.5581 prior shelf near the 38.2% Asia rally fib
China CPI later Monday could materially shift this read; the weekend gap stays unfilled while the 0.5553 session low holds
05:32 UTC
Uptrend, extended into round number · RSI 74 · price 0.55953
HH/HL chain from 0.5553 Asia low, unfilled weekend gap below.
Monday's Asia session gapped ~26 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close on the NZ coalition-majority read and a softer USD. Price held the 0.5553 session low and stepped up in higher lows (pullback low 0.5569, swing low 0.5589) to a 0.5596 session high. It now sits just under the 0.5600 round number with RSI(14) near 74, hot but not extreme.
Support: 0.55885, 0.55693, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.5596, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 round number extends the higher-high chain beyond the session high
Break of the 0.5589 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5569 pullback low
Loss of the 0.5553 session low would put the unfilled weekend gap toward 0.5539 in play
China CPI later today and remaining NZ vote count could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Uptrend, RSI hot but cooling · RSI 74 · price 0.55893
Asia HH/HL chain above Friday high after gap up.
Monday opened with a gap about 26 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close, clearing the Friday high at 0.5565 and leaving the post-NFP dip to 0.5527 well behind. The slim coalition majority in the NZ election count and a softer USD on lower oil fed the move. Asia session then built a steady HH/HL chain from 0.5553 to a 0.5594 session high, and RSI(14) is cooling from the low 80s, with the 02:15 UTC swing low at 0.5581 underneath.
Support: 0.5581, 0.55735, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.55937, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5594 session high puts the 0.5600 round number in play
Failure to hold the 0.5581 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain; the fib 50% of the Asia rally sits at 0.5574
A drop back under the 0.5565 Friday high starts filling the weekend gap
China CPI later Monday and the final NZ election tally could materially shift this read
05:04 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into round number · RSI 82 · price 0.55916
Post-gap HH/HL chain through Asia session.
Monday opened with a ~26-pip gap above Friday's 0.5539 close on the slim coalition-majority election read. Price dipped to 0.5553, then built a steady HH/HL chain through the Asia session to a 0.5594 session high just under the 0.5600 round number. RSI(14) near 82 is stretched. Rising trendline support is near 0.5590, with the 0.5584 swing low and the fib 38.2 / 0.5579 pivot below.
Support: 0.55836, 0.55786, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.55937, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.5594 session high / 0.5600 round number vs acceptance above it
M15 close below the rising trendline and 0.5584 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain
Loss of fib 38.2 at 0.5579 exposes the fri high / gap-open area at 0.5565
China CPI later today and the final NZ election tally could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Uptrend, steady through Asia · RSI 71 · price 0.55934
HH/HL chain since weekly-open gap-up.
The week opened with a ~26-pip gap above Friday's 0.5539 close as the NZ coalition result trimmed political risk. Asia has since built a clean HH/HL chain off the 0.5553 session low, clearing the 0.5566 Friday high and printing a 0.5594 session high just under the 0.5600 round number. RSI(14) sits near 71 and pullbacks keep holding the rising Asia trendline.
Support: 0.5581, 0.55659, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.55936, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.5600 round number into London open would cap the session high at 0.5594
M15 close below the Asia trendline and the 0.5581 consol base breaks the HL chain
Loss of the 0.5566 Friday high reopens the 0.5553 session low and the unfilled gap toward 0.5539
China CPI later today and Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Weekend gap up, then a higher-high/higher-low chain through Asia.
Asia opened with a ~26-pip gap above Friday's 0.5539 close on relief over the coalition-majority election result. Price held the 0.5553 Asian low and has climbed in a steady HH/HL chain to a 0.5589 session high, ahead of the digest's ~0.5560 read. RSI(14) is near 81, but bar ranges are compressing as price grinds toward the 0.5600 round number.
Support: 0.55812, 0.55693, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.55888, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5581 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.5569 swing low puts price back in the 38.2–50% fib zone of the Asian rally
Acceptance above the 0.5600 round number would extend the move beyond the 0.5589 session high
China CPI later Monday could materially shift this read
London open and US Fedspeak later today (Bowman 13:40 UTC) are the next volatility windows
HH/HL chain from the weekly-open low, grinding into a new session high.
Kiwi gapped higher at the weekly open on coalition-majority election headlines. The Asia leg has since built a clean HH/HL chain off the 0.5553 asia low to a fresh session high at 0.5587, with RSI(14) near 81. Gains have slowed into a shallow grind above the 0.5581 shelf low, with the 0.5569 swing low near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia leg and Friday's 0.5539 close leaving the gap unfilled.
Support: 0.5581, 0.5569, 0.5553
Resistance: 0.5587, 0.5600
What it said to watch
0.5600 round number overhead is the area to watch for rejection or break, and the session high at 0.5587 is the first test
M15 close below the 0.5581 shelf low breaks the micro HL sequence and exposes the 0.5569 swing low / 38.2% fib
Loss of the 0.5553 asia low puts the unfilled weekend gap toward 0.5539 back in focus
China CPI later today could materially shift this read
Any erosion of the coalition majority in the remaining election count could reverse the gap move
London open liquidity may test whether the Asia leg extends or retraces
04:03 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near highs · RSI 81 · price 0.55851
Higher highs and higher lows off the Asia low, tight 7-pip range at the top.
Monday opened with a gap of roughly 26 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close, helped by relief over the NZ coalition result. Asia dipped to the 0.5553 asia low, then built a higher-high chain through the 0.5569 pullback low to a 0.5586 session high. RSI(14) is near 81, and the last two hours have compressed between the 0.5579 range low and the high.
Support: 0.5579, 0.5569, 0.5553
Resistance: 0.5586, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5579 range low ends the compression and exposes the 0.5569 pullback low near the 50% fib
Rejection at the 0.5586 session high with RSI above 80 would mark a short-term top
Break of the 0.5600 round number extends the Asia session leg
China CPI later today and NZ election-count headlines could materially shift this read
Loss of the 0.5553 asia low reopens the unfilled weekend gap toward 0.5539
03:47 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 82 · price 0.55839
Higher-low chain off the Asia session low, compressing under the session high.
Monday opened with a 26-pip gap above Friday's 0.5539 close as the NZ coalition result and a softer USD trimmed the post-NFP selloff. After a dip to the 0.5553 session low, the Asia session has built a steady higher-low chain to a 0.5586 session high, with RSI(14) near 82 and bars narrowing under that high.
Support: 0.5579, 0.5569, 0.5553
Resistance: 0.5586, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5586 session high opens the 0.5600 round number
Close below the 0.5579 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.5569 pullback low near the 50% fib
Only a loss of the 0.5553 session low puts the gap fill toward Friday's 0.5539 close back in play
China CPI later Monday and the final NZ election tally could materially shift this read
03:32 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 81 · price 0.55837
Asia HH/HL chain off the gap-up open, flattening under 0.5585.
NZD gapped about 26 pips higher at the weekend open on NZ coalition-majority relief and a softer USD. Price then built higher lows from the 0.5553 asia low to a 0.5585 session high, which has capped two attempts. RSI(14) near 80 is stretched, and the rally trendline is flattening as bars compress just under that high.
Support: 0.55786, 0.55693, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.55846, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5585 session high opens the 0.5600 round number
Close back under the 0.5579 pullback low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.5569 swing low near the 50% fib
Loss of the 0.5553 asia low would fully unwind the post-gap rally
China CPI later in the Asia session could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 80 · price 0.55829
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia after a weekend gap up.
The Asia session opened with a 26-pip gap above Friday's 0.5539 close. After a dip to the 0.5553 session low, a steady higher-high/higher-low chain carried price to the 0.5585 session high as the USD gave back part of its post-NFP gains. RSI(14) near 80 marks a stretched leg, and the 0.5600 round number sits 17 pips overhead.
Support: 0.55759, 0.55636, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.55846, 0.5600
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.5576 prior high would break the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5564 swing low (50–61.8% fib of the Asia rally) puts the 0.5553 session low back in play
Acceptance above the 0.5585 session high opens the 0.5600 round number
China CPI later Monday and the final NZ election count could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into session high · RSI 80 · price 0.55828
Weekly-open gap up, higher-low chain through Asia.
Kiwi gapped about 26 pips higher at the weekly open on the coalition result. Demand held the 0.5553 session low and Asia has since built a higher-low chain, clearing the 0.5576 prior high to print a 0.5584 session high. RSI(14) near 80 is stretched, and Friday's post-NFP gap down to 0.5539 is still unfilled.
Support: 0.5576, 0.5569, 0.5553
Resistance: 0.5584, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 0.5584 session high opens the 0.5600 round number
M15 close back below the 0.5576 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5569 higher low breaks the rising support chain and puts the 0.5553 session low back in play
China CPI later Monday and the final NZ election count could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 79 · price 0.55838
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia after a weekend gap up.
Monday gapped about 26 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close, as USD gave back part of its post-NFP gains and the election count showed a slim coalition majority. Asia has built a higher-low chain from the 0.5553 session low and is now pressing the 0.5584 session high just above the 0.5581 Friday high, with RSI(14) near 79.
Support: 0.5581, 0.5569, 0.5553
Resistance: 0.5584, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5581 Friday high on a closing basis marks the breakout as a false break
A break below the 0.5569 higher low ends the Asia higher-low chain and breaks the Asia rally trendline
0.5600 round number is the next level above the session high
A return to the 0.5553 session low leaves the gap toward Friday's 0.5539 close in view
China CPI and the final NZ election count today could materially shift this read; US CPI is due Tue 13:30 UTC
02:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 76 · price 0.55792
HH/HL chain off the Asia session low after Monday gap up.
Monday's Asia session opened with a ~26-pip gap up from Friday's 0.5539 close, extending the recovery from the post-NFP low near 0.5527. The USD is fading in early Asia and the preliminary NZ count shows a slim coalition majority. The Asia rally has built higher highs and higher lows from the 0.5553 session low to a 0.5584 session high, with RSI(14) near 76 and price pausing just below the Friday high at 0.5587.
Support: 0.55693, 0.55654, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.55835, 0.55865, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5569 swing low and the rising support line breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the gap open at 0.5565
An M15 close above the 0.5587 Friday high opens the path to the 0.5600 round number
A drop back through the 0.5553 session low would put a gap fill toward Friday's 0.5539 close in play
China CPI and the final NZ election count today could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the Asian low, fresh break of a short consolidation.
Monday Asia opened with a roughly 26-pip gap above Friday's 0.5539 close. Price has built a higher-low chain from the 0.5553 Asian low and broke the 0.5569–0.5576 range top to print a session high at 0.5581, as USD gives back part of Friday's NFP pop. RSI(14) at 78 is hot but still below 80, with about 5 pips of ATR.
Support: 0.5576, 0.5570, 0.5553
Resistance: 0.5581, 0.5587, 0.5600
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.5576 range top would turn the break into a false break
Loss of the 0.5570 fib 38.2 and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
A drop through the 0.5553 Asian low exposes the unfilled gap toward Friday's 0.5539 close
Clearing the 0.5587 prior high from Friday Asia opens the 0.5600 round number
The final NZ election count and China CPI today could materially shift this read
02:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend after gap higher, RSI warm · RSI 69 · price 0.55739
Higher lows through the Asia session, breakout above the opening high.
Monday opened about 26 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close as USD softened in early Asia and the preliminary NZ election count showed a slim coalition majority. Buyers held the 0.5553 session low, then the pair broke the 0.5567 opening high and set a session high at 0.5576. RSI(14) is near 69 and the gap is still unfilled.
Support: 0.5569, 0.5553, 0.5539
Resistance: 0.5576, 0.5587, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.5569 breakout pivot breaks the Asia higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.5553 session low exposes the 0.5539 gap fill
Close above the 0.5576 session high opens the 0.5587 Friday high, then the 0.5600 round number
China CPI and the final NZ election count could materially shift this read during Asia
Higher lows off 0.5553 Asia low; gap above Friday close unfilled.
Monday's Asia session opened about 26 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close as the preliminary election count gave the coalition a slim majority, a relief bid against Friday's NFP-driven slide to 0.5527. The dip to the 0.5553 session low left the gap unfilled, and a higher low at 0.5556 fed a run to a 0.5576 session high. Price is holding just under that high, with the 0.5564 pullback low below, RSI(14) near 68 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 0.55636, 0.55563, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.55759, 0.5580, 0.55894
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5576 session high opens the 0.5580 round number, then Friday's 0.5589 prior high
Loss of the 0.5564 pullback low and the 0.5556 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Break below the 0.5553 session low puts the weekend gap back toward 0.5539 in play
China CPI today and the final NZ election count could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC, then Goolsbee and Barkin, are USD risk later in the day
Higher lows off 0.5553, opening high broken, gap unfilled.
Monday's Asia session opened with a roughly 26-pip gap above Friday's 0.5539 close, as relief built around the NZ election count after the NFP-driven low at 0.5527. The early dip held at the 0.5553 session low near Friday's post-NFP rebound high. Price then broke the 0.5567 opening high, building a higher-low chain to a 0.5576 session high. RSI(14) sits near 69 and the gap remains unfilled.
Support: 0.5564, 0.5553, 0.5539
Resistance: 0.5576, 0.5580, 0.5593
What it said to watch
Holding the 0.5564 breakout pvt keeps the higher-low chain intact; a break below it exposes the 0.5553 session low
An M15 close above the 0.5576 session high opens the 0.5580 round number, then the 0.5593 friday high
Failure at 0.5553 brings the gap fill toward 0.5539 into play
The final NZ election count and China CPI today could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman speaks at 13:40 UTC
01:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early Asia · RSI 74 · price 0.55717
Gap-up open, higher-low chain off 0.5553 session low.
Monday Asia opened with a ~26-pip gap above the 0.5539 Friday close. Price has since built higher lows from the 0.5553 session low to tag a 0.5576 session high, as the preliminary NZ coalition result tempers Friday's post-NFP USD strength, which had flushed the pair to 0.5527 before it rebounded. RSI(14) near 74 and price is above both EMAs, and the gap remains unfilled.
Support: 0.5564, 0.5553, 0.5539
Resistance: 0.5576, 0.5580, 0.5593
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5564 higher low breaks the Asian HL chain and puts the 0.5553 session low back in play
Break above the 0.5576 session high exposes the 0.5580 round number, then the 0.5593 Friday high
Gap fill toward the 0.5539 Friday close becomes live if the final NZ election count erodes the coalition majority
China CPI later today and Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Uptrend off the Monday open, RSI near 71 · RSI 71 · price 0.55704
Weekend gap up, higher lows, pressing session high.
Monday opened about 26 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close, the gap fill level, on the slim coalition majority in the NZ election count. Price dipped to a 0.5553 session low, then rose through the opening high and now presses the 0.5571 session high in early Asia. That puts it just above the 61.8% retracement of Friday's NFP-led drop, with higher lows at 0.5553 and the 0.5564 micro low holding the rising support and RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 0.5564, 0.5553, 0.5539
Resistance: 0.5571, 0.5600
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.5564 micro low breaks the higher-low chain on the rising support
Loss of the 0.5553 session low reopens the gap fill toward 0.5539
Acceptance above the 0.5571 session high leaves the 0.5600 round number as the next reference
China CPI or NZ election final-count headlines could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Short-term up after weekend gap higher · RSI 66 · price 0.55653
Higher low inside a developing 0.5553–0.5567 Asian range.
Asia opened about 26 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close on the slim coalition lead in the NZ election count, leaving a gap fill level untested. The early dip held at the 0.5553 session low, and a higher low at 0.5556 has price retesting the 0.5567 session high with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 0.55563, 0.55533, 0.55392
Resistance: 0.5567, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5567 session high extends the gap-up move and opens the 0.5600 round number
Loss of the 0.5556 higher low returns price to the 0.5553 session low; a break there exposes the gap fill toward 0.5539
Final NZ election count and China CPI during Asia could materially shift this read
Asia range 0.5553–0.5567 above unfilled weekend gap.
Monday's Asia session opened with a roughly 26-pip gap above Friday's 0.5539 close, as the NZ election count showed a slim coalition majority. The early dip to the 0.5553 session low formed a higher low at 0.5556, and price is back pressing the 0.5567 session high with RSI(14) near 68. Friday's NFP low at 0.5527 sits well below the gap.
Support: 0.55533, 0.55392, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.5567, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5567 session high breaks the Asian range and opens the 0.5600 round number
Loss of the 0.5553 session low and the higher-low trendline puts a gap fill toward the 0.5539 Fri close in play
China CPI and the final NZ election count today could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Gap higher at open, short-term higher lows · RSI 70 · price 0.55649
Monday Asia opening range 0.5553–0.5567, price pressing the open high.
NZD gapped about 26 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close at the Asia session open, a relief bid off 19-month lows after the weekend NZ election, with Friday's strong NFP already in the price. Early Asia built a 0.5553–0.5567 opening range with higher lows. Dips held above Friday's post-NFP prior high near 0.5556, and the latest bar pushed back to the open high with RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 0.5556, 0.5553, 0.5539
Resistance: 0.5567, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5567 open high, which also caps Friday's Asia swing, opens the 0.5600 round number
Break of the 0.5553 open low and the rising support line puts the gap fill toward Friday close at 0.5539 back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5556 prior high on a dip would weaken the higher-low sequence
Calendar is empty for the next 8h; Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC and Tuesday's US CPI are the next USD catalysts
00:03 UTC
Gap higher at the weekly open, early Asia drifting sideways · RSI 66 · price 0.5557
Opening range 0.5553–0.5567 above an unfilled weekend gap.
NZD/USD gapped about 26 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close at the weekly open, even after Friday's strong NFP drove a flush to the 0.5527 nfp low. Early Asia session has rotated between a 0.5553 session low, tested three times, and a 0.5564 swing high under the 0.5567 open high. The gap toward the Friday close is still unfilled, and price sits near the 25% retracement of the nfp low-to-open high move.
Support: 0.5553, 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5564, 0.5567, 0.5600
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.5553 session low opens a gap fill toward the 0.5540 Friday close
An M15 close above the 0.5567 open high puts the 0.5600 round number in view
Loss of 0.5540 would expose the 0.5527 nfp low
Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC Mon and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read