Higher lows since weekly open gap; testing 78.6% retracement of Thu–Fri decline.
NZDUSD gapped higher at the weekly open on NZ election relief. It has climbed steadily from 0.5553 through the Asia session, reclaimed 0.5600 in London and extended to a 0.5637 Monday high during NY hours as the USD gave back post-NFP gains. Price now sits just under the 78.6% fib of the Thursday–Friday decline from 0.5658 to 0.5527, holding above a rising EMA(20) near 0.5610 with Monday's higher lows at 0.5588 and 0.5602 intact. RSI(14) is near 68, short of overbought.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5602, 0.5566
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5637, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5637 Monday high and the 78.6% fib exposes last week's high at 0.5658, where Thursday's rally failed
Failure to hold the 0.5602 higher low and EMA(20) breaks Monday's rising structure
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Final NZ election count still pending; an eroded coalition majority risks unwinding the gap back toward the 0.5566 weekly open
Higher lows off an unfilled weekend gap, now testing the 78.6% retrace of last week's slide.
The election-relief gap above Friday's 0.5539 close has stayed unfilled. Monday built a steady higher-low sequence, with the Asia session doing most of the work and a late NY push tagging a 0.5637 session high. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and sits at the 78.6% retrace of last week's 0.5658–0.5527 slide, with RSI(14) near 77 in overbought territory. Overhead, the nov 4 high at 0.5646 and the 0.5658 prior high form the 0.5650–0.5660 cap that stalled the pair last week.
Support: 0.5615, 0.5602, 0.5553
Resistance: 0.5637, 0.5646, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Monday trendline and the 0.5602 pullback low would break the higher-low sequence; EMA(20) near 0.5615 has absorbed NY pullbacks so far
Rejection at the 0.5646 nov 4 high or 0.5658 prior high with rsi divergence (bearish) would mark a lower high against last week's top; a close above 0.5658 clears last week's range
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Final election count eroding the coalition majority could unwind the gap toward the 0.5553 week low
21:04 UTC
Uptrend since Monday's gap open, RSI stretched · RSI 78 · price 0.56329
Higher lows 0.5553/0.5588/0.5602; ~80% of Thu–Fri drop reclaimed.
NZD gapped up at the weekly open of 0.5566, above Friday's 0.5539 close, on NZ election relief. A softer USD on lower oil and yields then carried the pair through the Asia, London and NY sessions to a 0.5637 monday high. That move has retraced roughly 80% of the Thursday–Friday decline from the 0.5658 thu high to the post-NFP 0.5527 low. The NY-session pullback held at 0.5602 (ny low) before the late-NY push, keeping price above the ema20 near 0.5614. RSI(14) is near 78, the most stretched reading in the window.
Support: 0.5614, 0.5602, 0.5566
Resistance: 0.5637, 0.5646, 0.5658
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print challenges the rally from the weekly open
Hourly close below the 0.5602 ny low breaks Monday's higher-low trendline sequence
Acceptance above the 0.5646 wed high puts the 0.5658 thu high and the 0.5650-0.5660 cap in play
Pullback toward the ema20 / Monday fib 38.2% (~0.5605) tests whether the overbought RSI resolves via time or price
Final NZ election count headlines; a coalition slip unwinds the gap toward the weekly open
Higher lows since Monday's gap open, testing upper part of last week's 0.5658–0.5527 decline.
The week opened with a gap up from Friday's 0.5539 close to the 0.5566 weekly open. Preliminary NZ election results showing a slim coalition majority, plus a softer USD on US-Iran headlines, have since driven a steady climb of higher lows through the Asia, London and NY sessions to a 0.5634 day high, near the 78.6% retrace of last week's 0.5658–0.5527 decline. Price holds above EMA(20) near 0.5611 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 77 in overbought territory as the day high approaches the 0.5646 Wednesday high.
Support: 0.5611, 0.56017, 0.55661
Resistance: 0.5634, 0.56455, 0.56581
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5602 higher low and the 0.5600 handle breaks Monday's higher-low sequence
H1 close above the 0.5646 Wednesday high exposes last week's high at 0.5658
A drop back toward the 0.5566 weekly open would fill most of Monday's election gap
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Final NZ election count eroding the coalition majority would undercut the relief bounce
RSI(14) failing to confirm a new high above 0.5634 would flag bearish divergence
19:03 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into resistance · RSI 73 · price 0.56222
Steady higher lows since Monday's open, retracing the Nov 5–6 drop.
NZD gapped up at the weekly open of 0.5566 from a 0.5539 Friday close on election relief and a softer USD. It then built higher lows through Asia and London, reclaiming 0.5600 by mid-London, and the NY-session pullback held the ema20 near 0.5602 before a new Monday high at 0.5626. Price now sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib of the Nov 5–6 drop, with RSI(14) in overbought territory, and the Nov 4 high at 0.5645 and last wk high at 0.5658 overhead.
Support: 0.5602, 0.5566, 0.5539
Resistance: 0.5626, 0.5645, 0.5658
What it said to watch
Monday high at 0.5626, then the Nov 4 high at 0.5645 near the 78.6% fib, are areas to watch for rejection or break
Last wk high at 0.5658 marks the top of the prior range; a close above it clears the whole Nov 5–6 drop
An H1 close below 0.5600 and the ema20 breaks the Monday higher lows sequence
A return to the weekly open at 0.5566 unwinds the election gap, with the Friday close at 0.5539 next
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher lows since weekly open, retracing last week's slide.
Election relief gapped the pair up from Friday's 0.5539 close to a 0.5566 weekly open. Monday has built steady higher lows from the 0.5553 Monday low, with most of the climb in the Asia session and London extending it, and price is now holding above EMA(20) near the 0.5600 round number. The rebound has retraced past 61.8% of the 0.5658–0.5527 slide that the strong NFP print drove on Friday, with RSI(14) near 70. The 78.6% fib at 0.5630 is the next test, ahead of Wednesday's 0.5646 high and the 0.5658 week high.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55661, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.56455, 0.56581
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 78.6% fib at 0.5630 opens the path to the 0.5646 Wed high and 0.5658 week high
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number and the Monday higher-lows trendline exposes the 0.5566 weekly open
A move back below the 0.5553 Monday low would fully unwind the weekend gap
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Final NZ election count could reverse the relief bid
Higher lows from the weekly open; testing the Monday high.
Monday gapped above Friday's 0.5539 close and climbed through Asia and London on a run of higher lows. Election relief and a softer USD drove the move, which has recovered about 68% of the week's slide from the 0.5658 week high to the 0.5527 nfp low, back above the 61.8% level near 0.5608. The NY-session pullback low at 0.5602 held at EMA(20), and price is pressing the 0.5618 monday high with RSI(14) overbought near 76.
Support: 0.5602, 0.5566, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5618 monday high opens the path to the 0.5658 week high
Break of the Monday higher lows line and the 0.5602 pullback low would put the 0.5566 weekly open back in play
US October CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
A final NZ election count that erodes the coalition majority risks a slide back toward the 0.5527 nfp low
Higher lows since Monday's gap-up open, capped at the 61.8% retrace of the Thu–Fri slide.
Monday opened with a ~27-pip gap up to the 0.5566 weekly open on NZ election relief and a softer USD. Price then climbed steadily through Asia and London to a 0.5618 day high, which sits at the 61.8% retrace of the Thursday–Friday slide from the 0.5658 week high to the 0.5527 post-NFP low. The advance met rejection into the NY open, with RSI(14) rolling off near 69 and price easing to a 0.5602 NY low, while still holding above EMA(20) near 0.5594 and the rising trendline from Monday's low.
Support: 0.56017, 0.5594, 0.55661
Resistance: 0.56183, 0.56455, 0.56581
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5618 day high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the 0.5646 Wed high and 0.5658 week high
Loss of the 0.5602 NY low and the rising trendline exposes EMA(20) near 0.5594, then the 0.5566 weekly open
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC beforehand
Final NZ election count eroding the coalition majority would put the whole Monday rebound at risk
15:04 UTC
Rebound from week low, momentum cooling at 61.8% retrace · RSI 67 · price 0.56083
Thu–Fri lower highs broken by Monday's gap and higher-low climb; stalling at 0.5618.
Lower highs from Thursday's Asia-session 0.5658 week high carried price to 0.5527 after Friday's NFP beat. NZ election relief then gapped Monday's open about 27 pips higher, and a steady higher-low climb through the Asia and London sessions reclaimed the ema20 and EMA(50). Into the NY open the rebound stalled at the 0.5618 monday high, right at the 61.8% retrace of the week high to Friday low drop. RSI(14) has eased from ~76 to 67, and price is slipping under the Monday higher lows trendline, with 0.5600 psych and the ema20 near 0.5594 directly beneath.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55937, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56183, 0.56301, 0.56581
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5618 monday high opens the 78.6% fib at 0.5630, then the 0.5658 week high
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych and the ema20 at 0.5594 ends Monday's higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5553 monday low
US October CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Final NZ election count could reprice Monday's gap in either direction
Monday higher lows; 66% retrace of Thu–Fri decline.
Monday gapped up from Friday's 0.5539 close, about 27 pips above the NFP-driven week low at 0.5527. It has climbed steadily through Asia and London on NZ election relief and a softer USD, reclaiming the 0.5600 psych level and the 61.8% fib of the Thursday–Friday decline. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) on an unbroken higher-low trendline, with RSI(14) near 76 in overbought territory and the day high at 0.5618 sitting below last week's 0.5645–0.5658 week high zone.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5553, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.5600 psych and EMA(20) near 0.5591 would break the Monday higher-low trendline
Rejection in the 0.5645–0.5658 week high zone would keep the Thursday–Friday lower-high structure intact
Failure below the monday low at 0.5553 exposes the week low at 0.5527 and unwinds the gap
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and the final NZ election count could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's gap open; recovery inside last week's 0.5527–0.5658 range.
Monday opened with a ~27-pip gap above Friday's 0.5539 close on NZ election relief, and price has climbed steadily through the Asia and London sessions to a 0.5617 session high, holding above EMA(20) near 0.5590 with RSI(14) around 90 in overbought territory. The rebound has already cleared the 61.8% retracement of the Thursday–Friday decline from the 0.5658 week high to the 0.5527 Friday low, leaving the 78.6% fib at 0.5630 as the next resistance. Price is riding the steep Monday trendline into the NY open, with the 0.5600 round number and the weekly open at 0.5566 below.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5566, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5630, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Monday trendline (~0.5612) and the 0.5600 round number would break the higher-low sequence in place since the gap open
Acceptance above the 78.6% fib at 0.5630 opens the path to the 0.5650–0.5658 week high, where last week's rally stalled
Fed speakers today, the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT and US CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Election count updates (~14% uncounted): a move away from the coalition majority risks an unwind of the gap toward the weekly open at 0.5566
12:04 UTC
Sharp rebound off the 19-month low, RSI stretched · RSI 85 · price 0.56111
Higher lows since Monday's gap; testing 61.8% of last week's drop.
Monday gapped higher off Friday's 0.5527 low on the election-relief bid and has climbed in steady steps through the Asia and London sessions. Each pullback has set a higher low, and price is holding just above both the 0.5600 round number and the 61.8% retracement of last week's 0.5658–0.5527 drop. RSI(14) near 85 is the most stretched reading in the window and price sits roughly 20 pips above EMA(20). The session high at 0.5617 is the first test, with the prior high at 0.5646 and the week high at 0.5658 overhead.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55661, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.56167, 0.56455, 0.56581
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.5600 round number and the higher-low trendline would expose the weekly open at 0.5566 and the Monday gap
Rejection at the session high 0.5617 with RSI rolling over from overbought would mark the 61.8% retracement as a cap
Sustained trade above the 0.5646 prior high puts the 0.5658 week high, last week's peak, in play
Fed speakers during NY hours today and US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Election count updates eroding the coalition majority risk a return toward the friday low at 0.5527
Higher lows since Monday gap; testing 61.8% of Thu-Fri drop.
The week's dominant leg was the Thu-Fri drop from the 0.5658 week high to the NFP-driven 0.5527 low. Monday opened with a gap of roughly 27 pips higher on NZ election relief and has climbed steadily through Asia and London, breaking back above 0.5600 to test the 61.8% retracement near 0.5608, just under the 0.5612 session high. Price sits well clear of EMA(20) near 0.5584 with an unbroken Monday trendline of higher lows, while RSI(14) around 86 is overbought after an almost uninterrupted run of up bars.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5584, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56118, 0.56581
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.5600 round number and the Monday trendline would mark the rebound as stalling at the 61.8% level
Sustained hold above the 0.5612 session high opens the path toward the 0.5658 week high, where Thursday's rally reversed
A pullback to EMA(20) near 0.5584 tests whether the Monday trendline structure holds
Loss of the 0.5553 Monday low would reverse the gap fully and expose Friday's 0.5527 low
China CPI later Monday and the final NZ election count could materially shift this read
Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT today and US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT are the main USD-side risk
Higher lows since Monday gap; testing 61.8% of Thu-Fri drop.
Last week's slide began with the weak NZ Q3 jobs data. It then extended into Friday's post-NFP low at 0.5527 after Thursday's push to the 0.5658 week high failed. Monday opened with a ~27-pip gap above Friday's close on NZ election relief, and price has built Monday higher lows through Asia and early London, reclaiming EMA(20) near 0.5581. Price now sits on the fib 61.8% retracement of the Thu-Fri drop at 0.5608, with RSI(14) near 76 after an almost unbroken run of up-bars, and the 0.5646 Wed high is the next reference above.
Support: 0.5581, 0.55661, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.56082, 0.56455, 0.56581
What it said to watch
H1 close above the fib 61.8% at 0.5608 opens the 0.5646 Wed high and the 0.5658 week high
Break of the Monday higher lows trendline and an H1 close back below EMA(20) at 0.5581 would undercut the rebound read
Loss of the 0.5566 weekly open would put the gap from Friday's close at risk of filling toward the 0.5527 friday low
China CPI later today and the final NZ election count could materially shift this read
US October CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the next major USD driver
Gap-up open, higher lows since Monday, still below the 0.5658 lower high.
Monday opened about 27 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close on NZ election relief. The Asia session extended the bounce to a 0.5603 session high, just over half of the Thursday-Friday drop from the 0.5658 week high to the 0.5527 friday low. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 69, and the London open dip to the 0.5588 pullback low held the line of Monday's higher lows. The week's lower-high sequence stays intact below the 61.8% retracement at 0.5608, with the 0.5566 weekly open marking where the gap would fill.
Support: 0.5588, 0.5566, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5603, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5588 pullback low breaks the Monday higher lows line and exposes the 0.5566 weekly open
Acceptance above the 0.5603 session high and the 61.8% fib at 0.5608 opens the path to the 0.5650-0.5658 week high zone
Loss of the 0.5566 weekly open fills the gap and refocuses the 0.5527 friday low
Final NZ election count (~14% of votes outstanding) and China CPI today could shift this read; US CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC is the next major risk
Lower high 0.5658 to low 0.5527; Monday higher lows retracing.
The week's dominant move was the Thursday–Friday slide from the 0.5658 prior wk high to the 0.5527 prior wk low on the US payrolls beat, with Friday closing near 0.5539. Monday gapped up to a 0.5566 weekly open on NZ coalition relief and climbed steadily through the Asia session on rising lows. Price is now testing the 0.5603 monday high into London open, about 56% back through the decline, with price above EMA(20) near 0.5576 and RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 0.5576, 0.5566, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5603, 0.5625, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5603 monday high and 61.8% fib near 0.5608 opens the 0.5625 breakdown level from Thursday
Loss of the monday higher lows trendline and EMA(20) near 0.5576 puts the 0.5566 weekly open and gap fill in focus
Break below the 0.5527 prior wk low confirms downtrend extension
China CPI today and US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower low Friday at 0.5527, Monday gap-up and steady Asia session rally of higher lows.
Price reversed from Thursday's 0.5658 week high and slid 130 pips to a 0.5527 week low on Friday's US payrolls beat. That low undercut Tuesday's NZ-jobs dip at 0.5581, extending the lower-low sequence. Monday opened with a gap up on the NZ coalition result, and the Asia session carried it to a 0.5602 Monday high, just above the 50% retrace and short of the 61.8% fib at 0.5608. RSI(14) is near 70 and price has reclaimed EMA(20) at 0.5570.
Support: 0.5570, 0.5553, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5602, 0.5608, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.5608 and the 0.5600 round number shifts the read from relief bounce toward a deeper retrace toward the 0.5658 week high
Loss of the Monday rising lows and EMA(20) at 0.5570 puts the 0.5553 Monday low and the gap fill back in play
A break of the 0.5527 week low confirms extension of the downtrend
China CPI later Monday and US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; Fed speakers through NY hours today
Lower highs Thu–Fri, Monday gap-up retracing half the drop.
The week's dominant move ran from Thursday's 0.5658 week high, set after the US midterm result knocked the USD, down to a 0.5527 week low on Friday's NFP beat, with Wednesday's weak NZ labour report already weighing. Monday opened with a gap up from the 0.5539 friday close as the NZ coalition result trimmed political risk and the USD softened. Price has climbed through the Asia session back above ema20 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 69, clearing the 50% retracement of the week drop fib and pressing into the 0.5600 round number, Thursday's breakdown level.
Support: 0.55715, 0.55392, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56082, 0.56581
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5608 61.8% fib would break the week's lower-high sequence and put the 0.5658 week high back in view
Loss of the asia rally line and a close back below ema20 near 0.5572 would leave the gap to the 0.5539 friday close open to a fill
A break below the 0.5527 week low would confirm a fresh lower low in the downtrend
China CPI later Monday and Fed speakers (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) during NY hours could materially shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the next major risk for USD pricing; final NZ election count is also outstanding
Lower high at 0.5658 then lower low at 0.5527; Monday gap-up recovery now probing the 50% fib.
The week's dominant move was the Thursday–Friday drop from the 0.5658 high, set in Thursday's Asia session, to a 0.5527 week low in the NY session after Friday's payrolls beat. Monday's Asia session opened with a gap higher from Friday's 0.5539 close on the coalition-majority headlines. Price has since climbed steadily from the 0.5553 Monday low to the 50% fib near 0.5593, lifting it back above the EMA(20) around 0.5568 and the EMA(50) for the first time since Thursday, with RSI(14) at ~64.
Support: 0.5568, 0.5553, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5600, 0.5608
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5600 round number and the 61.8% fib at 0.5608 would challenge the Thursday–Friday downtrend read
Rejection at the 50% fib and a slip back under the ema20 near 0.5568 would expose the Monday low at 0.5553 and the unfilled weekend gap
Loss of the 0.5527 week low confirms a fresh lower low
China CPI later today and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The week's dominant leg ran from Thursday's Asia-session week high at 0.5658, set after the midterm-driven USD dip, down through a stronger-than-expected Friday NFP to the nfp low at 0.5527, printing successive lower highs. Monday's weekly open gapped about 27 pips above the fri close at 0.5539 on NZ coalition-continuity headlines. Price has since extended through the Asia session to 0.5585, back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and the 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) near 61. The 50% retracement at 0.5593 and the 0.5600 round number sit just overhead.
Support: 0.5566, 0.5539, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5600 round number and 50% retrace breaks the lower-high sequence from the week high
Failure back below the weekly open at 0.5566 reopens the gap toward the fri close at 0.5539 and the nfp low at 0.5527
China CPI later Monday could materially shift the Kiwi read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next major USD catalyst for this structure
Lower highs from 0.5658; Monday gap-up rebound testing breakdown zone.
The week's dominant move was the slide from Thursday's Asia-session week high at 0.5658 to the 0.5527 week low on Friday's strong US payrolls beat, a run of lower highs through both London and NY. Monday opened with a gap of about 27 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close on NZ coalition relief. The Asia session has since lifted price off the 0.5553 Monday low to 0.5584, clearing the lower-highs line, EMA(20) near 0.5562 and EMA(50) near 0.5577, with RSI(14) near 59. Thursday's prior lows around 0.5589, the 50% fib at 0.5593 and the 0.5600 round number now sit directly overhead.
Support: 0.5562, 0.5553, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5589, 0.5600, 0.5658
What it said to watch
Hourly closes above the 0.5589 prior lows and the 0.5600 round number would extend the bounce toward the 61.8% fib near 0.5608; the 0.5658 week high is the broader cap
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 0.5562 keep the Monday rebound structure intact
Failure back below the 0.5553 Monday low fills the gap and reopens the 0.5527 week low
China CPI later Monday and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin during Monday's NY session could reprice USD
Lower highs from Thursday peak; Monday gap-up testing EMA50/fib.
The week's dominant move was the ~130-pip slide from Thursday's Asia-session week high at 0.5658 to Friday's post-NFP week low at 0.5527. Lower highs tracked the lower-high line through Friday's Asia, London and NY sessions as the strong payrolls beat revived USD demand. Monday's Asia session opened with a gap above the 0.5539 Friday close on preliminary coalition-majority relief. The bounce has reclaimed EMA(20) near 0.5559 and stalled at the EMA(50) and 38.2% fib confluence around 0.5577, with RSI(14) recovering to ~56 from deeply oversold Friday readings.
Support: 0.5553, 0.5539, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5577, 0.5600, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 0.5577 (EMA50 confluence) opens the 0.5600 round number, with the week high at 0.5658 the upper reference
Failure to hold the Monday low at 0.5553 exposes a gap fill to the Friday close at 0.5539; a break of the week low at 0.5527 resumes the lower-low sequence
NZ election final count (≈14% of votes outstanding) and China CPI today could materially shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) is the next major USD catalyst for the pair
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce off Monday gap · RSI 55 · price 0.55704
Lower highs from Thursday's 0.5658 top; Monday gap above Friday's last lower high.
NZDUSD unwound Thursday's 0.5658 high, set on the midterm USD selloff, with a steady run of lower highs. The slide accelerated through Friday's London and NY sessions as the 165K NFP beat drove a 0.5527 NFP low. Monday's Asia session gapped up from the 0.5539 Friday close on the slim coalition majority in the NZ election count, reclaiming EMA(20) near 0.5557 and lifting RSI(14) to about 55, with price now just under the EMA(50) and 38.2% fib confluence at 0.5577 and the 0.5600 round number above.
Support: 0.5557, 0.5539, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5577, 0.5600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5577 (ema50/38.2%) would extend the break of the lower-highs line and open the 0.5600 round number
A gap fill back to the 0.5539 Friday close puts the 0.5527 NFP low back in play
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 0.5557 keeps the Monday bounce corrective within the downtrend
China CPI and the final NZ election count today could materially shift this read
Fed speakers Mon 13:40–17:15 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC are the next USD-side risk
00:04 UTC
Downtrend, Monday gap stalling at EMA20 · RSI 45 · price 0.55573
Lower highs from 0.5658; gap above Friday base.
The week turned lower from Thursday's Asia-session high at 0.5658, with the heaviest selling in Friday's Asia and London sessions as the NZ jobs miss weighed on RBNZ hike pricing; Friday's NFP beat printed the 0.5527 week low, which was quickly retraced. Monday's Asia open gapped about 27 pips above the 0.5539 Friday close, but the 0.5569 gap high was rejected and price now sits on EMA(20) near 0.5555, just under the 23.6% fib of the 0.5658–0.5527 decline. RSI(14) near 45 has recovered from Friday's oversold readings without reclaiming 50, and EMA(50) lines up with the 38.2% fib at 0.5577.
Support: 0.5553, 0.5539, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5569, 0.5577, 0.5600
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5553 monday low extends the gap fill toward the 0.5539 friday close
Break of the 0.5527 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 0.5577 (EMA50) opens the 0.5600 round number
Monday Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read