NZD gapped higher at the weekly open on election relief and climbed through Monday's sessions. Tuesday's London-open push to the 0.5650 week high briefly cleared Monday's 0.5642 peak and was rejected, breaking the rising trendline from Monday's low, and the hot US CPI print then drove a NY-session drop to the 0.5586 cpi low near the 61.8% retracement of Monday's rally. The late-NY recovery has stalled around the 50% level near 0.5601, just under the ema20 at 0.5610, with RSI(14) back in the low 40s from 32 and EMA(20) rolling over toward a flattening EMA(50).
Support: 0.55864, 0.55654, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56104, 0.56288, 0.56495
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the ema20 near 0.5610 reopens the 0.5629 pre-cpi base
Failure to hold the 0.5586 cpi low exposes the 0.5565 weekly open and the 0.5553 week low
A fresh push through the 0.5650 week high would negate the rejection
EMA(20) crossing below EMA(50) would confirm the post-CPI momentum shift
Rejection from week high; rally line broken, holding 50% fib.
NZD/USD ran from Monday's 0.5553 low to a 0.5650 week high in Tuesday's London session. Waller's hawkish remarks and the hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3% f/c) then drove a rejection to the 0.5586 cpi low during NY hours, breaking Monday's rally line. The bounce has stalled at the 50% fib near 0.5601, with price below the ema50 at 0.5609 and the ema20 at 0.5612. EMA(20) has rolled over, and RSI(14) has recovered from 32 to 42 without reclaiming 50.
Support: 0.56014, 0.55864, 0.55654
Resistance: 0.56091, 0.56115, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema50/ema20 band at 0.5609-0.5612 reopens the path toward the 0.5650 week high
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 0.5600 exposes the cpi low at 0.5586
A break of the cpi low brings the weekly open at 0.5565 into view, the top of Monday's unfilled gap
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could shift the USD read, particularly any 50bp December hike talk
Retracing about 50-61.8% of this week's rally; lower high in place at 0.5650.
The week opened with a gap up to a 0.5565 weekly open, about 26 pips above Friday's 0.5539 close, on NZ election relief. That rally ran to a 0.5650 week high in Tuesday's London session, and the rejection came as Waller flagged a possible 50bp hike. The hot October CPI (0.4% headline, 0.3% core) extended the slide in the NY session to a 0.5586 cpi low, just past the 61.8% retracement, and the bounce has stalled at 0.5603 near the 50% level and the 0.5600 round number. Price sits below both the EMA(20) at 0.5612 and the EMA(50) at 0.5609, which are converging. RSI(14) has recovered to 42.7 from a 32.2 trough.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55864, 0.55654
Resistance: 0.56124, 0.5629, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 near 0.5612 would reopen the 0.5629-0.5634 cpi shelf, where price consolidated before the release
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number and a break of the 0.5586 cpi low would leave the weekly open gap near 0.5565 exposed
EMA(20) at 0.5612 is about 3 pips above the EMA(50) at 0.5609; a bearish ema cross would confirm the momentum shift
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC; any echo of Waller's 50bp case could pressure the round number
A move back through the 0.5650 week high would negate the rejection read
Monday higher-low sequence broken on CPI; mid-range near 50% retrace.
The week opened with a gap up to 0.5565 and rallied on the NZ election relief bid along Monday's rising trendline to a 0.5650 week high at Tuesday's London open. That high met rejection: Waller's 50bp talk and then the hot US CPI print drove a 63-pip slide in the NY session to the 0.5586 cpi low near the 61.8% retracement of Monday's rally. Price has recovered to the 0.5600 psych level at the 50% retracement, with RSI(14) lifting from 32 to 43, but it is still below the ema50 at 0.5610 and an ema20 at 0.5613 that has rolled over.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55864, 0.55654
Resistance: 0.56097, 0.56134, 0.56495
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could extend or unwind the CPI move
An H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.5613 (38.2% retrace) would revive the Monday rally structure
A break below the cpi low at 0.5586 exposes the weekly open at 0.5565 and the unfilled weekend gap
Rejection at the ema50 at 0.5610 would mark a lower high below the 0.5650 week high
Monday-Tuesday rally retraced to 61.8%; lower high at 0.5650.
The week opened with a gap higher at 0.5565 on NZ election relief. The rally from the 0.5553 weekly low carried to a 0.5650 week high in Tuesday's London session, where it was rejected as Waller's hawkish remarks lifted USD. The hot US CPI print around the NY open then extended the drop to the 0.5586 CPI low, near the 61.8% retracement of the Monday rally, leaving price below both EMA50 at 0.56099 and EMA20 at 0.56145, with EMA(20) now rolling over toward EMA(50) and RSI(14) recovering only to 38.1 from 32.2.
Support: 0.55864, 0.55654, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56099, 0.56145, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5586 cpi low breaks the 61.8% retracement and opens the weekly open at 0.5565, then the weekly low at 0.5553
Recovery back above the ema50 at 0.56099 and ema20 at 0.56145 would neutralise the post-CPI pullback read
EMA(20) crossing below EMA(50) would confirm the momentum shift from the Monday rally
The 0.5650 week high is the cap; failure there leaves a lower high in place
Fed's Bowman (20:30 UTC), then Paulson and Bowman (23:30 UTC), could materially shift this read after the hot CPI
18:03 UTC
Rebound reversed, short-term down after CPI · RSI 35 · price 0.55918
Monday-Tuesday higher-low sequence broken; price below both EMAs at the 61.8% fib.
The rebound from the gap-up weekly open on election relief ran out at the 0.5650 Tuesday high in early London. Waller's 50bp talk took the first leg off it, and the hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a NY-session slide through EMA(50) at 0.5610 and EMA(20) at 0.5616 to the 0.5586 CPI low. That low sits on the 61.8% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday rally, and RSI(14) has dropped from 70 on Tuesday morning to 34.5 with ATR(14) steady near 10 pips.
Support: 0.55864, 0.55654, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56105, 0.56163, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5586 cpi low extends the retracement toward the weekly open at 0.5565 and the monday low at 0.5553
Recovery back above the ema50 at 0.5610 and the ema20 at 0.5616 would neutralise the post-CPI rejection
Monday's gap down to Friday's 0.5539 close remains unfilled below the weekly open
A return toward the 0.5650 tuesday high would put the week's rejection level back in play
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read if 50bp December framing is endorsed or rejected
17:02 UTC
Rebound reversed, short-term down after CPI · RSI 32 · price 0.55898
Lower high at 0.5650; Monday rising support broken.
The election-driven rebound from the 0.5553 monday low ran to 0.5650 in Tuesday's London session, short of last week's 0.5658 high. That high met rejection after Waller's comments. The hot US October CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) then broke the rising support from Monday's NY low at the NY open, taking price below the ema50 (0.5611) and the ema20 (0.5619) and through 0.5600 psych. Price now sits on the 61.8% retracement of the Mon–Tue rally near the 0.5586 cpi low. RSI(14) has slid from 70 to 32.2 and the EMA(20) is rolling over, with ATR edging up to 10.2 pips.
Support: 0.55864, 0.55654, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56112, 0.56188
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.5600 psych and the ema50 at 0.5611 would neutralise the CPI break
Failure to hold the cpi low / 61.8% near 0.5586–0.5590 exposes the weekly open at 0.5565, then the monday low at 0.5553
RSI(14) at 32.2: a push below 30 would register oversold on this timeframe
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could shift the USD read if 50bp December talk builds
Monday higher-low sequence broken; price below both EMAs, holding the 50% retrace.
Monday's election-led rebound from Friday's 0.5527 prior low carried to a 0.5650 week high at Tuesday's London open, where it met rejection just under last week's 0.5658 top. The hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) then dragged the pair through the 0.5600 round number in the NY session, breaking the rebound trendline and closing below both the ema20 at 0.5622 and the ema50 at 0.5612. RSI(14) has slid from 70 to 33.7 with ATR(14) expanding to 10.4 pips, and the cpi low at 0.5590 sits on the 50% retracement of the rebound, with the weekly open at 0.5565 below.
Support: 0.55901, 0.55654, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56121, 0.56219
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the cpi low at 0.5590 and the 50% rebound fib opens the 61.8% near 0.5574 and the weekly open at 0.5565
Recovery back above the 0.5600 round number and the ema50 at 0.5612 would frame the CPI drop as a retracement within Monday's rebound
ema20 at 0.5622 has turned lower and caps any bounce until reclaimed
Loss of the weekly open puts Friday's 0.5527 prior low back in view
Fed's Bowman (20:30 UTC) and Paulson (23:30 UTC) on the 25 vs 50bp December question could extend or fade the post-CPI move
15:42 UTC
Monday rebound unwinding after hot US CPI · RSI 41 · price 0.5599
Rejected at week high, back below both EMAs, testing 0.5600.
The early-London push on Tuesday to the 0.5650 week high cleared Monday's 0.5637 peak but was rejected around Waller's remarks. The hot US October CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) then drove a ~30-pip NY-session slide that has retraced half of the week's rally off the 0.5553 week low. Price is below EMA(20) at 0.5625, and the last closed bar sits under EMA(50) at 0.5613, which overlaps the 38.2% level. RSI(14) has dropped from 78 on Monday to 41, and the forming bar is probing the 0.5600 round number at the 50% retracement.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5590, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56128, 0.56248, 0.56495
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5590 fib 61.8% would leave the week low at 0.5553 as the next reference.
A recovery back above the 0.5613 ema50 and then the 0.5625 ema20 would put the post-CPI drop back inside Monday's range.
Holding the 0.5600 round number keeps the move a retracement within the week's rally rather than a full reversal.
A renewed test of the 0.5650 week high would revisit the area that rejected price on Tuesday.
Fed's Bowman (20:30 and 23:30 UTC) and Paulson (23:30 UTC) on 25 vs 50bp in December could extend or fade the CPI-driven USD bid.
Higher-low line broken; price below ema20 and ema50, testing 38.2% fib zone.
Monday's weekend gap higher and election-relief rally carried NZDUSD from the 0.5553 monday low to a 0.5650 tuesday high at London open. That high came with a bearish RSI divergence, 70 against 78.8 at Monday's peak. Waller's 50bp talk then triggered a rejection, and the hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2% f/c) drove a 20-pip drop to the 0.5609 cpi low, breaking the higher-low line and leaving price just under the ema50 (0.5613) and below the ema20 (0.5627). RSI at 42.7 has cycled out of Monday's overbought readings, while ATR holding near 9.5 pips shows no expansion beyond the CPI bar itself.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5602, 0.5553
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.56265, 0.5650
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema50 at 0.5613 would frame the CPI drop as a probe rather than a structural break
Failure to hold the 0.5602 swing low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib, exposes the 50% retracement near 0.5589 and the monday low / gap zone around 0.5553
Reclaiming the ema20 near 0.5627 would be needed to revive the higher-low structure, with the 0.5650 tuesday high above
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC and Paulson/Bowman at 23:30 UTC could extend or unwind the post-CPI repricing
Higher lows from 0.5553; rejected at 0.5650, tight range on ema20.
NZDUSD has rebuilt from Friday's post-payrolls 0.5527 low. It gapped higher at the Sunday open and printed higher lows through Monday on NZ election relief and a softer USD. London's push to a 0.5650 week high met rejection in the Waller-speech hour, a roughly 20-pip drop that broke the Monday higher-lows line, and price has since compressed between 0.5628 and the 0.5634 range top, sitting on the ema20 (0.5628) with RSI(14) cooled from 78.8 to 54.5 and ATR easing. The pullback is still shallow, holding above the Tuesday Asia low at 0.5616, the ema50 at 0.5613 and the 38.2% fib of the 0.5527–0.5650 rally near 0.5602.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5616, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.5634, 0.5650, 0.5658
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%, headline 0.3%) falls inside the next bar and could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 0.5634 range top reopens the 0.5650 week high and the 0.5658 prior high
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 0.5616 Asia low exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.5602; a break there would undercut the week's higher-low sequence
Higher lows since Friday low, now flat below 0.5650 session high.
NZDUSD has retraced most of last week's slide from 0.5658 to the 0.5527 post-NFP low, rallying through Monday on NZ election relief and a softer dollar, with RSI(14) peaking at 78.8 late Monday. The London-open push to a session high at 0.5650 met rejection around Waller's remarks. Price has since flattened just above EMA(20) at 0.5628, with RSI back at 56.5 and Monday's rising trendline lost, leaving a consolidation between the 0.5617 Asia low and 0.5650.
Support: 0.56279, 0.56166, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56495, 0.56581
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5650 session high opens the path to the 0.5658 prior high
Loss of EMA(20) and the 0.5617 Asia low exposes the 0.5602 swing low near the 38.2% rebound fib
ATR(14) steady near 9 pips; expansion through either edge of the consolidation would mark a range break
Higher lows since Monday's gap open, capped below 0.5650.
NZD/USD gapped about 27 pips higher at Monday's open on NZ election relief. It then ground up through the London and NY sessions as a softer USD and slipping oil weighed on the dollar, and it now sits above EMA(20) at 0.5628 and EMA(50) at 0.5612. Tuesday's early-London push to the 0.5650 tuesday high was rejected back toward EMA(20), and RSI(14) peaked at 70.2 against 78.9 on Monday, a bearish divergence on the higher high. The higher-low sequence from the 0.5602 monday low still holds, with last week's 0.5658 prior high above.
Support: 0.56276, 0.56173, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56495, 0.56578
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h, core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close below ema20 and the 0.5617 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5602 monday low, at the 38.2% of the fib rebound, exposes the 50% near 0.5589
H1 close above the 0.5650 tuesday high reopens the 0.5658 prior high
10:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading at the high · RSI 56 · price 0.56322
Higher lows since Monday's gap, London high rejected.
NZDUSD has climbed about 120 pips from Friday's post-NFP low at 0.5527. It gapped higher at Monday's open on NZ election relief and kept grinding up as Iran de-escalation softened the USD, with each pullback holding a rising support line and the rising ema20. The London open push to 0.56495 cleared the Asia high at 0.56425 but reversed within the hour, and RSI(14) peaked at 70.2 on that move versus 78.9 on Monday evening's lower high, a bearish divergence. Price still sits above both EMAs, with the swing low at 0.56173 below and the week high at 0.56578 above, a few hours ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56272, 0.56173, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56425, 0.56495, 0.56578
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h; core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the ema20 at 0.56272 and the rising support line puts the higher-low sequence in question, with the 0.56173 swing low next
A break of the monday low at 0.56017, near the 0.5600 pivot, would undo the Friday-low rebound structure
An H1 close back above the london high at 0.56495 negates the rejection and exposes the week high at 0.56578
Since Monday's gap-up open at 0.5566, NZD/USD has stair-stepped off Friday's post-NFP low at 0.5527 on election relief and a softer USD. Pullbacks have held above a rising EMA(20), now 0.5627, carving higher lows at the 0.5602 pullback low and the 0.5617 swing low. The London-open push to 0.5650 (today high) came on RSI(14) 70.2 versus Monday's 78.9, a bearish divergence, and price has eased back onto the rising trendline below Thursday's 0.5658 week high.
Support: 0.56269, 0.56173, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56495, 0.56578
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (headline f/c 0.3% MoM, core 0.2%) can materially shift this read
Waller speaking this hour is a near-term USD headline risk
H1 close above the 0.5650 today high and 0.5658 week high extends the higher-high sequence
Loss of the rising trendline and ema20 at 0.5627 exposes the 0.5617 swing low
Break below the 0.5602 pullback low ends Monday's higher-low structure
08:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 68 · price 0.56421
Higher lows since Sunday open, Asian range pressing session high.
NZD/USD has climbed steadily since Sunday's gap-up open near 0.5566. Most of the election-relief rally off Friday's 0.5527 low came through Monday's Asia and London sessions, and price holds above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with higher lows at 0.5602 and 0.5618 (swing low). Tuesday's Asian range is pressing the 0.5643 session high, with the asian low at 0.5633 beneath it. RSI(14) at 67.8 sits well below Monday's 78.9 peak while ATR(14) eases to 8.8 pips, a bearish RSI divergence into the high, with the 0.5650 round number and last week's 0.5658 prior high above.
Support: 0.56332, 0.56248, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.56426, 0.5650, 0.56578
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5643 session high exposes the 0.5650 round number and 0.5658 prior high
A break of the 0.5633 asian low puts the ema20 at 0.5625 in play as the first pullback test
H1 close below the 0.5618 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Fed's Waller in ~1h and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday's gap; tight consolidation under 0.5643.
NZD/USD gapped higher at Monday's open on NZ election relief and built a relief rally of about 115 pips from Friday's post-NFP 0.5527 low. Most of the gain came in the Asia and London sessions, and higher lows have held above a rising EMA(20) near 0.5623 since. In today's Asia session the pair has compressed below the 0.5643 asia high, with ATR easing to 8.7 pips. That high printed on RSI 66.6 against 78.9 at Monday's 0.5638 peak, a bearish divergence as the impulse slows into US CPI.
Support: 0.56231, 0.56173, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56425, 0.56578
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5617 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.5600 psych pivot near the 38.2% relief rally fib
H1 close above the 0.5643 asia high opens the 0.5658 prior high (last week's high)
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US October CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft core print is the larger-move scenario given crowded Fed hike pricing
Loss of the ema20 on a closing basis would mark the first break of the week's pullback structure
Higher lows since Monday's gap, tight range under week high.
NZD gapped higher at Monday's open on NZ election relief and climbed from 0.5553 through Asia and London. The NY low at 0.5602 held, and price is now above a rising ema20 (0.5622) and ema50 (0.5606). Tuesday's Asia push to a 0.5643 week high came with RSI(14) at 66.6 against 78.9 on the 0.5638 high, a bearish divergence. ATR has eased to 9 pips as price coils in a 0.5630–0.5640 band against the higher-lows trendline near 0.5633, with the Monday rally's 38.2% retracement near 0.5608.
Support: 0.56219, 0.56173, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56425, 0.56578
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC comes first
H1 close below the 0.5617 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the ema20 retest at risk
Failure to hold the 0.5602 NY low unwinds most of the Monday rally
H1 close above the 0.5643 week high voids the divergence and puts the 0.5658 prior high in play
05:05 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading near week high · RSI 68 · price 0.56387
Higher highs and higher lows since Sunday's gap-up open; price riding the rising trendline.
NZDUSD has added about 75 pips from Sunday's gap-up weekly open at 0.5566, which came on NZ election relief. Asia and London hours carried most of the Monday rally, and every pullback has held above EMA(20), now near 0.5622, along a rising trendline from Monday's 0.5553 low. Tuesday's Asia push to a week high at 0.5643 came with RSI(14) near 67 against roughly 79 on Monday's high, a bearish divergence, with last week's prior high at 0.5658 overhead and US CPI still to come.
Support: 0.56222, 0.56173, 0.55663
Resistance: 0.56425, 0.56578
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, with Waller earlier at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the rising trendline (~0.5633) and the 0.5617 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% Monday rally fib near 0.5608
H1 close above the 0.5643 week high voids the RSI divergence and opens the path to the 0.5658 prior high
A slide back to the 0.5566 weekly open would erase the post-election gap move
Higher lows since the weekly open; stalling under the 0.5643 Asia high.
NZDUSD gapped higher at the weekly open on the NZ election result and climbed steadily through Monday's London and NY sessions. Pullbacks set higher lows at 0.5602 and 0.5617 and found EMA(20) near 0.5620. The election rally off Friday's post-NFP 0.5527 low has since stalled under today's 0.5643 Asia high, with RSI(14) easing into the low 60s and bar ranges narrowing ahead of US CPI, while last week's high at 0.5658 caps the structure above.
Support: 0.56173, 0.56017, 0.55663
Resistance: 0.56425, 0.56578
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~9.5h) could materially shift this read; Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC adds earlier event risk
H1 close below the 0.5617 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 0.5602 higher low in focus
H1 close above the 0.5643 Asia high opens the path to last week's high at 0.5658
Failure to hold the 0.5602 higher low exposes the weekly open near 0.5566 and the 50% retracement of the election rally
Higher lows since Monday's open, now consolidating 0.5617–0.5643.
NZDUSD has climbed steadily since Monday's gap-higher open at 0.5566 on NZ election relief, building higher lows from the 0.5553 Monday low through Asia, London and late NY hours, with pullbacks holding the EMA(20) near 0.5618. Tuesday's Asia session is consolidating between 0.5617 and the 0.5643 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 66 flattening rather than pressing overbought as a firm USD into US CPI caps the move. The rebound from Friday's 0.5527 post-NFP low now spans about 115 pips; the 23.6% fib near 0.5615 sits alongside the EMA(20) and the higher-low trendline.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5600, 0.5553
Resistance: 0.56425, 0.56578
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~11h, core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the ema20 and higher-low trendline near 0.5618 breaks Monday's higher-low sequence
Loss of the 0.5600 round number would put the Monday low at 0.5553 back in focus
H1 close above the 0.5643 Asia high opens the path to last week's prior high at 0.5658
NZ special-vote count eroding the coalition majority could unwind the election rebound
Higher highs and higher lows since the gapped weekly open; ~80% retrace of Thu–Fri decline.
NZDUSD gapped higher at the 0.5566 weekly open on NZ election relief. It then printed higher highs and higher lows through Monday's London and NY sessions, retracing about 80% of the Thursday–Friday slide from 0.5658 to the post-NFP 0.5527 low. Pullbacks have held at or above EMA(20), including the 0.5602 NY low, and RSI(14) has held a 55–65 band. Price is stalling at the 0.5642 Asia high, just below the 0.5646 Wed high and the 0.5658 Thu high that capped last week's rally.
Support: 0.5623, 0.5602, 0.5566
Resistance: 0.5642, 0.5646, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5658 thu high clears the full Thu–Fri decline and the week's prior high
Rejection in the 0.5642 asia high to 0.5646 wed high band keeps the move a retrace below last week's highs
Loss of EMA(20) and the Monday higher-lows trendline exposes the 0.5602 ny low
Break back below the 0.5566 weekly open would unwind the weekend gap and the election bounce
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (~11.5h) could materially shift this read
Pending final NZ election count; any coalition seat change could reverse the bounce
Higher lows since Sunday's gap-up open; most of last week's NFP slide retraced.
NZDUSD gapped up at Sunday's 0.5566 weekly open on election relief and has stepped higher in a clean sequence of higher lows. The Friday-to-Monday rally has now recovered about 80% of last week's slide from the 0.5658 last wk high to the post-NFP 0.5527 low, helped by a softer USD on oil and Iran headlines. Price holds above EMA(20) near 0.5620, which absorbed the thin rollover dip to 0.5616. RSI(14) has cooled to ~64 from near 80 at the 0.5637 Monday high, with the Nov 4 high at 0.5646 next overhead.
Support: 0.5620, 0.5600, 0.55661
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.56455, 0.56581
What it said to watch
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US October CPI at 13:30 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read
H1 close below the rising line and ema20 near 0.5620 breaks the Monday higher-low sequence
Loss of the 0.5600 round number exposes the gap back toward the weekly open at 0.5566
Close above the monday high at 0.5637 opens the nov 4 high at 0.5646 and the last wk high at 0.5658
00:03 UTC
Uptrend since weekly open, testing Monday high · RSI 66 · price 0.56342
Higher lows off Friday low; V-shaped recovery of last week's slide.
Monday opened with a ~27-pip gap above Friday's 0.5539 close on election relief, then climbed steadily through London and NY as USD gave back its post-NFP gains. Higher lows formed at 0.5588 and 0.5602, and price is holding above EMA(20) near 0.5621. The move has now retraced over 80% of last week's 0.5658–0.5527 slide, with Monday's high at 0.5637 the immediate cap and the rollover low at 0.5616 and the 0.5600 round number beneath; RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not overbought.
Support: 0.5621, 0.56164, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.56581
What it said to watch
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5637 Monday high opens the path to last week's 0.5658 high
H1 close below the 0.5616 rollover low breaks the Monday higher-lows sequence and exposes the 0.5600 round number. The 23.6% of the Friday low–Monday high leg sits near 0.5611
Final NZ election count is pending; erosion of the coalition majority could unwind Monday's gap