Lower highs at 0.5710, 0.5658 and 0.5650; lower lows to 0.5527.
Since the 0.5710 peak the pair has printed a sequence of lower highs. The rebound from the 19m low at 0.5527 stalled at 0.5650, a lower high just under the 0.5658 swing, and the hot US CPI beat sent it back to a cpi low of 0.5586. Price sits below the ema20 (0.5606) and ema50 (0.5614), with EMA20 still under EMA50. RSI has eased from 60 to 48.5 and ATR(14) is steady near 21 pips, so neither compression nor expansion is visible.
Support: 0.55864, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.56062, 0.56137, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the ema20 and ema50 at 0.5606-0.5614 would neutralise the post-CPI rejection
H4 close above the 0.5650 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence on the lower highs line
Failure to hold the 0.5586 cpi low reopens the 19m low at 0.5527, near the base of the drop fib
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, then Thursday's jobless claims and Fed speakers, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.5710; rebound capped below prior swing high.
Swing structure has printed lower highs since the 0.5710 peak, and the post-election rebound from the 0.5527 cycle low stalled at 0.5650. That makes a fresh lower high under the 0.5658 prior high. The hotter US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) knocked price back below the ema20 (0.5607) and ema50 (0.5614), with EMA20 still under EMA50. The pair now sits near the 50% fib of the rebound at 0.5589, with ATR(14) flat around 21-22 pips and RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 0.55885, 0.5580, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.56066, 0.56141, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5580 prior lows opens the path back to the 0.5527 cycle low
Reclaim of ema20/ema50 and a close above the 0.5650 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
Fed's Bowman (20:30 UTC) endorsing a 50bp December hike could extend USD strength into the 50% fib and below
Thu Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 195K) is the next US data risk to this read
Lower highs from 0.5710; rebound from 0.5527 capped at 0.5650.
The lower-high sequence from the 0.5710 window high is intact. The election-led rebound from the 0.5527 cycle low stalled at the 0.5650 rebound high, short of the 0.5658 prior high, and the hotter US CPI print (core MoM 0.3% vs 0.2%) pushed price back to 0.5611. Price now sits between the rising ema20 (0.5608) and a flat ema50 (0.5615), with RSI easing to 51 from 60 and ATR steady near 21 pips, so there is no compression signal.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5579, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5615, 0.5650, 0.5658
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.5658 prior high breaks the lower-high trendline and the lower-high series
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 0.5603 38.2% rebound fib exposes the 0.5579 swing low, then the 0.5527 cycle low
An ema20 cross above the ema50 would be the first swing shift since the late-October breakdown
Fed's Bowman (20:30 UTC) and Paulson/Bowman (23:30 UTC) could extend the post-CPI repricing
Lower highs from 0.5710; break below range floor reclaimed.
Strong US payrolls drove the pair through the late-October range floor at 0.5581 to a cycle low at 0.5527. The election-relief rebound has since retraced more than 78.6% of the drop from the 0.5658 prior high and put price back inside the 0.5581-0.5645 range, now above both EMAs. EMA20 is rising toward EMA50 near 0.5615 but has not crossed, RSI at 58.3 has recovered from oversold, and ATR near 20 pips is steady while the range top at 0.5645 caps for a third time.
Support: 0.56153, 0.5581, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.5645, 0.56578, 0.57102
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, about 3.5h away, could break the pair out of the range in either direction
An H4 close above the 0.5658 prior high would break the lower-high sequence from the 0.5710 swing high
An EMA20 cross above EMA50 would confirm the rebound on this timeframe
A return below the ema50 at 0.5615 and the 0.5581 range floor would expose the 0.5527 cycle low again
0.5580-0.5710 range with lower highs; false break below floor reclaimed.
NZDUSD has rotated inside a broad 0.5580-0.5710 range for three weeks, with a series of lower highs from the 0.5710 range top down to the 0.5658 week high capping rallies. Friday's NFP-driven slide to the 19m low at 0.5527 proved a false break of the range floor, and the election-relief bounce has since reclaimed both EMAs, with RSI at 60.7 after oversold readings late last week and the 0.5643 recent high the immediate cap. EMA20 still sits below a flattening ema50, and ATR is drifting lower near 20 pips into US CPI.
Support: 0.56147, 0.5581, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.56425, 0.56578, 0.5710
What it said to watch
US October CPI today 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC
H4 close above the 0.5658 week high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 0.5710 range top
Failure back below the ema50 at 0.5615 puts the 0.5581 prior lows back in play
EMA20 crossing above EMA50 would mark the first bullish ema cross since late October
NZ election special votes eroding the coalition majority could unwind the bounce toward the 19m low
02:04 UTC
Downtrend paused, sharp rebound into range highs · RSI 63 · price 0.56416
Range 0.5582-0.5658 after a false break to 0.5527.
The late-October flush set a 0.5582-0.5658 range. Last week's break below the prior low ran to a 0.5527 swing low on the strong US payrolls print. Election-relief short-covering has since retraced nearly the whole 0.5658-0.5527 leg, beyond the 78.6% fib, and price sits back above both EMAs, pressing the 0.5645 range cap that has capped twice. ATR(14) near 21 pips reflects an expanding regime rather than compression, and the rebound line from the swing low marks the higher-low sequence.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5582, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5645, 0.5658, 0.5705
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.5658 week high clears the range cap and opens the 0.5705 range top
Loss of the rebound line and a close back below 0.5600 psych would leave the 0.5527 bounce as a lower high inside the downtrend
Failure to hold the 0.5582 prior low reinstates the false break as a breakdown
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Final NZ election count; erosion of the coalition majority would undercut the relief rally