LH/LL chain since Aug 21 high, now a tight base at 0.5580.
NZDUSD has been in a clean downtrend since the Aug 21 high at 0.5988, with lower highs on Sep 4, Sep 22 and Sep 28 and price below a falling EMA(50) on D1 through six straight weekly losses. That run was driven by Fed-RBNZ policy divergence and firm US yields. Over the last seven sessions the pair has compressed into a 0.5580–0.5630 band, with demand holding the 18m low twice. Today's close bounced off that low on a softer USD and oil, while RSI near 38 shows fading downside momentum rather than an oversold extreme.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5555
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5687, 0.5737
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 0.5580 18m low confirms a fresh lower low, with 0.5555 the next ref
Daily close above the 0.5630 range top ends the consolidation and brings the Sep 28 high at 0.5687 into play as the next lower-high test
Recovery through the 0.5737 38.2% fib of the Aug–Oct decline would challenge the downtrend read
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) and RBNZ's Breman Thu 17:15 UTC could resolve the range either way
Lower highs and lower lows since 21 Aug, now basing in a tight range.
The decline from the 21 Aug 0.5988 high has printed a clean lower-high chain at 0.5902 (3 Sep), 0.5750 (22 Sep) and 0.5687 (28 Sep). Price sits below a falling EMA(50) as hawkish-Fed yields near 2002 highs and oil-driven risk-off keep NZD pinned near 18-month lows. Over the last seven sessions the pair has compressed between the 0.5580 range floor and the 0.5628 range top, with RSI flattening near 37 rather than pressing oversold.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5687, 0.5745
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 0.5580 range floor confirms a fresh lower low and opens the 0.5500 psych area
Daily close above the 0.5628 range top, where EMA(20) also sits, would shift the read toward a base
Recovery through the 0.5687 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.5745 fib 38.2 of the Aug–Oct decline sits above
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC, with core the swing factor, could resolve the range in either direction
RBNZ Gov. Breman speech Thu 15 Oct 17:15 UTC could reprice October hike odds from ~58%