Tight 0.5608–0.5618 range since NY open, above Asian range.
London lifted price out of Tuesday's 0.5580–0.5597 Asian range as the USD pulled back from its highs. Since the NY open it has been boxed between the 0.5608 NY low and the 0.5618 range high, and the rollover spike to 0.5600 at the new Asia open was fully reclaimed. RSI(14) sits near 52 and ATR is inflated by the rollover bars.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56077, 0.55971
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 range high puts the 0.5622–0.5630 weekly cap in play
Loss of the 0.5608 NY low opens the fib 38.2% near 0.5603 and the Asian high at 0.5597
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Fed Bowman at 09:40 UTC first
Tight 0.5608–0.5618 range below session high after London breakout of Asian range.
Tuesday's Asian low at 0.5580 gave way to a London breakout through 0.5600, with the asia-ny rally stalling at the 0.5618 session high as the USD pulled back into CPI. Price has since held a 0.5608–0.5618 consolidation, and the thin rollover wick to the 0.5600 round number, near the 38.2% retracement, was rejected. Early Asia is drifting mid-range with RSI neutral.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56002, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.5626
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker) is the next likely range-breaker; core 0.2% MoM is the reference point
M15 close above the 0.5618 session high opens the 0.5626 month cap, where prior recoveries stalled
Failure to hold the 0.5608 ny low exposes the 0.5600 round number and a deeper retracement of the asia-ny rally
ATR is inflated by the rollover wick; ex-rollover bars are running nearer 1.5–2 pips
23:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled into a range · RSI 48 · price 0.56113
Flat 0.5608–0.5618 range after London rally.
NZD/USD climbed about 38 pips off the 0.5580 Asian low through London as the USD pulled back into CPI, then stalled into a 0.5608–0.5618 range for the NY session, with the range high at 0.56181. Early Asia is sitting mid-range at 0.5611, flat on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 48, after a thin-liquidity spike to the 0.5600 rollover low was fully reversed.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56034, 0.56002
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56077 ny low breaks the range floor and exposes the fib 38.2% at 0.5603, then the rollover low near 0.5600
M15 close above the 0.56181 range high reopens the 0.5626 recovery cap that has halted rallies this month
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
23:03 UTC
Rally stalled, flat range since NY open · RSI 46 · price 0.56113
Tight 0.5608–0.5618 range after the 0.5580–0.5615 Asia-London leg.
The rally ran from the 0.5580 asian low through London to 0.5615 as the USD eased off its highs. NY then held a 10-pip range between the 0.5608 range low and the 0.5618 range top. Thin rollover bars spiked to the 0.5600 round number and were reclaimed, a false break, and early Asia now sits mid-range near 0.5611 with RSI(14) at 46 and price pinned to the flat EMAs.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 range low puts the 0.5600 round number and the rally fib 38.2% (~0.5603) back in play
M15 close above the 0.5618 range top exposes the 0.5626 monthly cap that has stalled recent recoveries
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) is the likely range-breaker; a hot core print brings the 0.5580 asian low back into view
Fed Bowman at 09:40 UTC could jolt the range during London
Asia-London higher lows, now 10-pip range under 0.5618.
The Asia-London leg from 0.5580 cleared the asian high at 0.5597 on a softer USD, then stalled into a 0.5608–0.5618 range through NY hours. A thin-liquidity rollover spike to the 0.5600 psych level, near the 38.2% fib of the rally, was reclaimed; price now sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) at 46.
Support: 0.56077, 0.5600, 0.55971
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.5628
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 range high reopens the 0.5626–0.5630 prior cap
Acceptance below the 0.5608 range low exposes the 0.5600 psych level and the broken 0.5597 asian high
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled into a tight range · RSI 49 · price 0.56129
Asian range broken higher, 0.5608–0.5618 range since NY open.
The Asia dip to the 0.5580 day low reversed. London broke the Asian high near 0.5600, and NY extended to 0.5614 before the pair flattened into a 0.5608–0.5618 range, in line with USD position-squaring ahead of CPI. The rollover spike to 0.5600 was spread-driven and fully retraced, leaving early Asia mid-range with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 session high opens the 0.5626 prior cap that has capped recoveries this month
Failure to hold the 0.5608 ny low exposes the 0.5600 asian high, which coincides with the 38.2% fib of the 0.5580–0.5618 leg
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
22:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled into a tight range · RSI 47 · price 0.5612
Range 0.5608–0.5618 since NY open, after Asia low-to-London rally.
NZD bounced from the 18m low at 0.5580 in early Asia and cleared the 0.5600 round number through London as the USD eased on lower crude and yields. Since the NY open price has held a 0.5608 range low to 0.5618 session high box. The rollover spread wick to 0.5600 was fully retraced, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 47 into the Asia session.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 session high opens the 0.5622–0.5630 cap zone
Failure to hold the 0.5608 range low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 38.2% fib
A break back under 0.5600 puts the 0.5580 18m low back in focus
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, fading into Asia open · RSI 41 · price 0.56082
Rally from 0.5580 topped at 0.5618, price back at the NY session pivot lows.
A softer USD and oil drove a steady climb off the 0.5580 asia low through London and NY, peaking at the 0.5618 day high during late NY hours. Price then slipped out of the 0.5613–0.5615 ny range. A thin rollover spike tagged the 0.5600 psych level, near the 38.2% fib, and price now sits on the 0.5608 ny lows with RSI(14) near 41 as the Asia session opens.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5618, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 ny lows exposes 0.5600 psych and the 38.2% fib at 0.5603
Recovery back above the 0.5613 ny range floor puts the 0.5618 day high back in play, with 0.5626 recovery cap above
Rollover-hour spikes on thin liquidity distort ATR; ranges may stay tight through the Asian range build
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a break under the 0.5580 asia low would reverse the whole intraday leg
21:46 UTC
Intraday rally from the Asia low stalled; price slipping in thin rollover trade · RSI 32 · price 0.56042
0.5608–0.5618 range through London-NY, range floor lost after the rollover gap.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5558
Resistance: 0.5608, 0.5618
21:31 UTC
Rally from Asian low, now flat · RSI 44 · price 0.56122
0.5608–0.5618 NY range after a 38-pip London leg.
NZD rallied about 38 pips from the 0.5580 Asian low through London as the USD and oil eased, then compressed into a 0.5608–0.5618 NY range capped by the session high. A rollover gap to 0.5600, the rollover low, near the 38.2–50% retracement of the Asia-NY rally, was filled within two bars. Price sits mid-range with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 3 pips, and has drifted ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 range low exposes the 0.5600 rollover low and the 38.2% fib
Close above the 0.5618 session high opens the 0.5622 recovery cap
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of 0.5600 puts the 0.5580 Asia low back in focus
NY range 0.5608–0.5618 broken at rollover gap; price now below the ny low.
NZD rose from the 0.5580 day low as the USD and oil eased. London cleared the Asian high, and NY held a 0.5608–0.5618 range capped by the session high at 0.5618. The thin-liquidity rollover gap pushed price below the ny low to tag the 0.5600 round number, near the 50% retracement of the Asia-ny leg. RSI(14) is near 35.
Support: 0.56002, 0.55946, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56077, 0.56181
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim the 0.5608 ny low keeps the range-break read intact; a recovery back inside points to rollover noise
An M15 close below the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5595 asian high, then the 0.5580 day low
Asia session open could fill or extend the rollover gap
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; a push through the 0.5618 session high would bring the 0.5622–0.5630 cap into play
21:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, drifting lower in a range · RSI 45 · price 0.56113
Post-rally range 0.5608–0.5618 with lower highs off the 0.5618 session high.
NZD climbed steadily from the 0.5580 Asian-session low through London as the USD pulled back, then NY compressed into a 0.5608–0.5618 range. The 0.5618 session high was rejected at 18:00 UTC and a lower high at 0.5616 followed; price is now sliding toward the ny range low at 0.5610 after NY close, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR thin at ~2.4 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56078, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56163, 0.56181, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5610 ny range low, then the 0.5608 ny low, breaks the range and puts the 0.5600 round number and the 38.2% fib near 0.5603 in view
Recovery above the 0.5616 lower high and the 0.5618 session high reopens the 0.5622 recovery cap flagged in the macro digest
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the next major catalyst; thin Asia trade until then may keep the range intact
20:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalled into a range · RSI 48 · price 0.56123
HH/HL leg from the Asia low, flat range 0.5608–0.5618 since midday.
The Asia low near 0.5580 held and London broke the Asian range high at 0.5601, extending a ~38-pip leg as USD eased ahead of CPI. Since midday the pair has held a 0.5608–0.5618 range, with the day high capping a late NY probe and RSI(14) neutral near 48 as activity thins after NY close.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56008, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 range low exposes the 0.5601 asian high and 0.5600 round number
Pullback toward the 38.2% fib of the Asia-to-NY leg near 0.5603 would test whether the HL structure holds
M15 close above the 0.5618 day high opens the 0.5622–0.5630 recovery cap
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, flat since NY open · RSI 45 · price 0.56123
HH/HL chain from the 0.5580 Asia low, now a tight NY range 0.5608–0.5618.
The bounce off the 0.5580 low in Asia cleared the Asian high at 0.5601 during London as USD eased ahead of CPI. Since NY open, price has been boxed between the 0.5610 range floor and the 0.5616 range top, and the 18:00 UTC push to the 0.5618 session high was rejected. Late NY is quiet, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR down to about 2 pips. Price is holding only about 12% into the Asia low–session high fib.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56077, 0.56008
Resistance: 0.5616, 0.56181, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5610 range floor exposes the 0.5608 NY low and the 23.6% fib near 0.5609
Failure to hold the 0.5601 asia high would unwind the London breakout
Close above the 0.5618 session high opens the 0.5622–0.5630 recovery cap
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, with Bowman at 09:40 UTC beforehand, could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, flattening into range · RSI 54 · price 0.56134
Higher lows from 0.5580 through London; sideways NY range since 12:00 UTC.
The climb from the 0.5580 Asia low ran through London on a pre-CPI USD pullback, then stalled during NY hours into a 0.5608–0.5618 range. The session high is 0.5618, set at 18:00 UTC. Price sits mid-range near 0.5613 with RSI(14) neutral around 54, and ATR is compressing as NY winds down.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 session high opens the 0.5622–0.5630 recovery cap
Failure to hold the 0.5608 ny range low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 38.2% fib near 0.5603
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 0.5580 asia low is the downside reference on a hot print
20:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalled in late NY range · RSI 53 · price 0.56134
HH/HL chain from the Asian low, now a ~10-pip NY consolidation.
The early-Asia bounce from 0.5580 extended through London and into NY as USD eased ahead of CPI. Price has since compressed between the 0.5610 range floor and the 0.5618 session high, sitting on a flat EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 53. The ny low at 0.5608 lines up with the rising trendline and fib 23.6%.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56077, 0.56008
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 ny low breaks the rising trendline and the HL chain
Loss of 0.5600, the asian high, would put the 38.2% fib at 0.5603 back in play
Close above the 0.5618 session high opens the 0.5622–0.5626 recovery cap
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC
19:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, flat in late NY · RSI 52 · price 0.56148
Higher highs from Asia, now a 10-pip NY range 0.5608–0.5618.
NZD/USD bounced from 0.5580 in Asia as the USD eased on lower yields and oil. London cleared the asian high at 0.5601 and NY added a further step higher. Since the NY open price has held a 0.5608–0.5618 range, the session high at 0.5618 caps it, RSI(14) sits neutral near 52 and ATR has compressed to about 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56008
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 session high exposes the 0.5622–0.5630 cap zone flagged in the macro digest
Break of the 0.5608 ny range low turns the read to a pullback toward the 0.5601 asian high, near the 38.2% of the Asia–NY rally fib
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the coming Asia session is likely to stay compressed ahead of it
19:17 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into late NY · RSI 50 · price 0.56142
Higher lows inside a 0.5608–0.5618 NY range.
NZD climbed from the 0.5580 Asian low through London as the USD pulled back, breaking the asian high at 0.5601. It has since compressed into a 0.5608–0.5618 range during NY hours, printing higher lows along trendline support. A late-NY probe of the 0.5618 session high was rejected; RSI(14) sits neutral near 50 and ATR is thin, consistent with pre-CPI caution.
Support: 0.56106, 0.56077, 0.56008
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.56226
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 session high opens the 0.5622–0.5630 recovery cap
Break of the 0.5611 higher low and trendline support exposes the 0.5608 ny low
Loss of the 0.5608 ny low puts the 0.5601 asian high and the rally fib 38.2% near 0.5603 in focus
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; thin Asia session liquidity until then
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in late NY · RSI 58 · price 0.56147
HH/HL chain from Asian low, flattening into a tight NY range.
London extended the Asia-session rebound off 0.5580 through the asian high at 0.5600 as the USD eased on lower yields and oil. NY has since compressed into a 0.5608–0.5618 range, slipping under the rising asia trendline. The session high at 0.5618 sits just below the 0.5622 cap zone.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56008
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 ny low breaks the NY range and exposes the 0.5600 asian high
Close above the 0.5618 session high puts the 0.5622 cap zone in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into late NY · RSI 51 · price 0.56146
HH/HL from 0.5580 low, tight range at highs since NY open.
NZD climbed steadily from the 0.5580 18-month low through Asia and London as USD and oil eased. Since NY open price has compressed between the 0.5608 NY low and a fresh 0.56181 session high after London close, with rising lows near 0.5611 and RSI(14) flat around 51.
Support: 0.5611, 0.56077, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising lows near 0.5611 and the 0.56077 NY low breaks the intraday HL chain, exposing the 0.5600 round number
Break above the 0.56181 session high opens the 0.5622–0.5630 recovery cap
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the Asian low, now a tight NY range 0.5608–0.5618.
London broke the Asian high at 0.5597 and extended the rebound from the 0.5580 Asian low as softer yields and oil eased the USD. NY has compressed above a 0.5610 range base. A late-NY poke to a 0.5618 day high left an upper wick, and RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 0.56098, 0.56077, 0.55971
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 day high opens the 0.5622–0.5630 cap zone
Break below the 0.5608 NY low ends the NY range and exposes the 0.5597 Asian high
Price is late in the NY session into the Asia session, so a thin-liquidity drift inside the range is the default
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for this read
HH/HL climb from the Asia low, now a tight 0.5608–0.5617 range.
A steady HH/HL climb from the 0.5580 swing low in Asia carried through London as the USD eased on softer yields and oil, then stalled at the 0.5617 session high early in the NY session. Late NY is coiling in a 0.5608–0.5617 range, holding above the 23.6% of the rally fib, with price flat on EMA20, RSI(14) near 52 and ATR(14) under 3 pips.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 range low exposes the 0.5600 round number, near the 38.2% rally fib
Break of the 0.5617 session high brings the 0.5626 recovery cap into view
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk; a hot core print points back toward the 0.5580 swing low
Bowman remarks Wed 09:40 UTC could shift USD into the CPI release
17:46 UTC
Uptrend stalled into a flat NY range · RSI 50 · price 0.56122
HH/HL rally from the 0.5580 swing low, now a tight NY session range.
The early-Asia dip to the 0.5580 swing low turned into a steady HH/HL rally through London as the USD and oil eased, peaking at the 0.5617 session high in the first hour of NY. Since then price has compressed in a 0.5608–0.5617 NY range. The ny low sits on the 23.6% retracement of the rally, RSI(14) is flat near 50 and ATR has contracted to about 3 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.5608, 0.56008, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 ny low breaks the NY range and exposes the asian high near 0.5600
M15 close above the 0.5617 session high reopens the 0.5622 recovery cap zone
Loss of 0.5600 would put the rally's 38.2% level (~0.5603) and the 0.5580 swing low back in focus
Low-impact US budget statement at 18:00 UTC. US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk to this compressed range
17:31 UTC
Uptrend from Asian low, stalling into late NY · RSI 49 · price 0.56127
Higher lows from 0.5580 into a tight 0.5608–0.5617 NY range.
London lifted the pair out of the 0.5580–0.5597 Asian range as USD eased with softer yields, and NY printed a session high at 0.5617. Price has since compressed in a 0.5608–0.5617 band into late NY. The NY low sits at the 23.6% retrace of the Asian low–session high leg, RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5617 session high opens the 0.5626 range top
Failure to hold the 0.5608 NY low and 23.6% fib exposes the 0.5600 round number
A break back below 0.5600 shifts focus to the 0.5580 asian low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Uptrend from Asia low, stalling in NY · RSI 58 · price 0.56139
London breakout above Asian range, NY consolidation 0.5608–0.5617.
Higher lows ran from the 0.5580 Asia low. London cleared the asian high at 0.5595 and the 0.5600 round number as USD eased on softer yields. Since the open of NY the pair has compressed between the 0.5608 ny low and the 0.56169 session high, with ATR down to about 3.4 pips and RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.55946
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 ny low breaks the NY consolidation and puts the 0.5600 round number back in play
Close above the 0.56169 session high opens the 0.5626 range top cited as the multi-week cap
Holding above the 0.5595 asian high keeps the London breakout intact; a return inside the Asian range marks it a false break
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into late NY · RSI 47 · price 0.56116
Tight range 0.5608–0.5617 after Asia-London leg higher.
Kiwi climbed about 37 pips off the 0.5580 Asian low, then broke the asian high near 0.5600 in London as USD eased on softer yields. NY has compressed between the ny low at 0.5608 and the session high at 0.5617, with RSI(14) flat near 47 and ATR down to about 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56008
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 ny low breaks the NY range and exposes the asian high at 0.5601, near the 38.2% fib of the asian-ny leg
Close above the 0.5617 session high reopens the 0.5626 range cap
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor; Wednesday's 12:30 UTC US CPI is the event that could reset this range
16:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling in NY · RSI 48 · price 0.56122
HH/HL chain from Asia low, flat NY consolidation under session high.
A steady HH/HL climb from the 0.5580 Asia low carried through the London open above the 0.5600 round number as USD eased on softer yields. Since the NY session opened, price has been capped in a 0.5608–0.5617 consolidation below the 0.56169 session high, with the NY low sitting on the 23.6% fib, RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR down to ~3.6 pips late in NY hours.
Support: 0.56098, 0.56077, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5610 ny swing low and the 0.5608 ny low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 0.5600 round number
Close above the 0.56169 session high reopens the 0.5626 range cap flagged in the digest
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the event that could reset this range
16:32 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in NY · RSI 54 · price 0.56124
Session-long HH/HL climb from Asia low, now flat-topped range 0.5608–0.5617.
The Asia low at 0.5580 launched a steady climb through London as USD eased with yields. Since NY open the climb has flattened into a 0.5608–0.5617 range after London close, with rising lows pressing a flat ny high, price pinned to the ema20 and RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 0.56098, 0.5608, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.5620
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5617 ny high opens the 0.5620 round number, then the 0.5622–0.5630 cap
Break of the rising lows and the 0.5608 ny low (23.6% of the Asia low to NY high leg) exposes 0.5600 psych
ATR(14) under 4 pips signals compression; the US Monthly Budget Statement (18:00 UTC) is minor, and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the event likely to break the range
Asian range broken higher in London; NY consolidating 0.5608–0.5617 with higher lows.
NZDUSD climbed about 37 pips off the 0.5580 asian low as USD eased on softer yields and oil, with London clearing the 0.5600 round number and the top of the Asian range. NY has since compressed between the 0.5608 ny lows, which sit at the 23.6% fib, and the 0.5617 session high. Higher lows are holding above the rising trendline, and RSI is near 57 after London close.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5626
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5617 session high opens the 0.5626 range cap flagged in the macro digest.
A break below the 0.5608 ny lows and the rising trendline puts the 0.5600 round number and the 38.2% fib back in play.
Only a loss of 0.5600 would expose the 0.5580 asian low.
The US Monthly Budget Statement is at 18:00 UTC; Wednesday's 12:30 UTC CPI is the larger risk to this read.
16:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in NY · RSI 56 · price 0.56146
HH/HL chain from Asia low, now a tight NY consolidation under 0.5617.
The bounce from the 0.5580 Asia low built a HH/HL chain through London as USD eased with yields. NY has stalled in a 0.5608–0.5617 consolidation, with repeated dips held at the ny lows and the 0.56077 session low. After London close, price sits near the box top. That is below the 0.5622–0.5630 range top flagged in the digest, and RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56077, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56169 ny high opens the 0.5622–0.5630 range top
Loss of the 0.56077 session low (23.6% fib) breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.5600 asia high
US Monthly Budget Statement 18:00 UTC; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk to this read
15:47 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in NY range · RSI 52 · price 0.56106
HH/HL chain from Asian low, now flat NY range.
Kiwi carved higher lows off the 0.5580 Asian low and cleared the asian high at 0.5601 in London as USD eased on softer yields and oil. NY has flattened into a 0.5608–0.5617 range below the session high, with the ny low sitting on the 23.6% retrace of the Asia-NY leg. Price is back in the lower half of that range, RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56008
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.5620
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 ny low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5601 asian high (38.2% of the Asia-NY leg)
M15 close above the 0.5617 session high resumes the HH sequence toward the 0.5620 round number
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor; Wed 12:30 UTC CPI is the larger risk to this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low; 0.5608–0.5617 band since NY open.
NZD climbed from the 0.5580 Asian low, and London broke the Asian high at 0.5601 as USD eased on softer yields and oil. The session high is 0.5617. Since NY open, price has compressed in a 0.5608–0.5617 band, with dips to the NY lows bought twice and the rising trendline intact.
Support: 0.56085, 0.56008, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5617 session high reopens the 0.5626–0.5630 range top
Failure to hold the 0.5608 NY lows exposes the 0.5600 Asian high and the rising trendline
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the next major risk; core vs 0.2% m/m could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in NY range · RSI 57 · price 0.56152
HH/HL chain from the Asian low; NY compressing below the session high.
London broke the Asian range high near 0.5595 and cleared the 0.5600 round number as USD eased on softer yields and oil, building an HH/HL chain to a 0.5617 session high. NY has since compressed into 0.5608–0.5617, with buyers stepping in at the 0.5608 NY low three times; RSI(14) neutral at 57.
Support: 0.56085, 0.5600, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.56265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5617 session high exposes the 0.5626 range cap
Loss of the 0.5608 NY low and the 0.5600 round number breaks the HH/HL chain; the 50% fib of the Asian low to session high move sits near 0.5598
Asian low at 0.5580 doubles as the 18-month floor
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman remarks could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in NY · RSI 53 · price 0.56127
HH/HL chain off Asian low, now NY range 0.5608–0.5617.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5601 and built a HH/HL chain to 0.5615 as the USD eased on softer yields and oil. NY has since swung between the 0.5608 NY low and the 0.5617 session high with wide two-way bars, and RSI(14) has cooled to a neutral 53.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56008
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 NY low breaks the HL sequence and puts the asian high at 0.5601 (38.2% fib zone) in play
Acceptance above the 0.5617 session high reopens the 0.5626–0.5630 range top
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst that could reset this structure
14:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling in NY · RSI 56 · price 0.56137
HH/HL from 0.5580 Asian low, now 0.5608–0.5617 consolidation.
Kiwi climbed about 37 pips off the 0.5580 Asian low and cleared the asian high near 0.5600 at London open as USD eased with yields. NY has stalled into a tight 0.5608–0.5617 consolidation below the session high, with two wicks into the ny low holding and the rising trendline from the overnight low only grazed. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and ATR(14) is about 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.56085, 0.56005, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.56265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 ny low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5600 asian high, roughly the 38.2% fib
Break of the 0.5617 session high opens the 0.5622–0.5630 range top, which has capped for weeks
Failure to hold 0.5600 puts the 0.5580 asian low back in focus
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; pre-release positioning may keep NY ranges tight
14:32 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in NY · RSI 51 · price 0.56119
HH/HL chain from Asian low, now NY range 0.5608–0.5617.
NZD climbed steadily from the 0.5580 Asian low through London in a clean HH/HL chain as USD eased with Treasury yields. NY has stalled into a 0.5608–0.5617 range of wide two-way bars, with RSI(14) back near 51. The NY lows at 0.5608 sit on the 23.6% fib of the Asian low to session high leg, and the 38.2% fib at 0.5603 lines up with the London pullback lows.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5603
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.5625
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5608 NY lows breaks the HL chain and exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.5603
Acceptance above the 0.5617 session high opens the 0.5625 range top
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk to this read; today's 18:00 UTC Budget Statement is second-tier
HH/HL chain from Asian low; NY session consolidating below session high.
Steady HH/HL climb off the 0.5580 Asian low through London, with a rising trendline intact as USD eased from its 18-month high. NY session is now chopping between the 0.5608 NY lows and the 0.5617 session high, with wicks on both sides and RSI(14) cooling to ~58.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5602, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 NY lows breaks the rising trendline and HL chain, exposing the 0.5602 london dip (38.2% of the Asian low–session high leg)
Close above the 0.5617 session high reopens the 0.5626 range cap, which has capped the pair for weeks
Loss of 0.5602 puts the 50% retracement near 0.5598 and the 0.5580 asian low back in focus
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, stalling after NY rejection · RSI 52 · price 0.56092
HH/HL chain from 0.5580 broken at the 0.5617 session high; pullback testing the 0.5608 NY low.
Asia held the 0.5580 floor, and London broke above the Asian high at 0.5601 as USD eased off its 18-month top, grinding to 0.5614. The NY open spiked to a 0.5617 session high and was rejected. The 13:45 UTC bar slid back to 0.5609, just above the ny low and below EMA20, with RSI(14) back to 52.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56037, 0.56008
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 ny low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 0.5604 swing low and the 0.5601 asian high, near the 38.2% fib.
Reclaim of the 0.5617 session high reopens the 0.5626 range top cited in the macro digest.
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the next major catalyst. Pre-CPI positioning may keep NY ranges compressed.
13:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending into NY · RSI 67 · price 0.56149
Higher-high/higher-low chain from the 0.5580 Asia low; Asian high and 0.5600 broken.
Steady HH/HL climb off the 0.5580 Asia low: London cleared the asian high and the 0.5600 round number, and the early-NY dip to the 0.56077 ny dip low was bought into a fresh session high at 0.56169. The move tracks USD easing from 18-month highs, though the macro read frames it as corrective ahead of Wednesday's US CPI. RSI(14) is near 67 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56077, 0.5600, 0.55971
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.5630
What it said to watch
Break of rising support and the 0.56077 ny dip low ends the HH/HL chain
M15 close back below the 0.5600 round number and 0.5597 asian high reopens the breakout zone
Session high at 0.56169, then the 0.5630 range top (0.5622–0.5630 cap) — areas to watch for rejection or break
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Existing Home Sales 14:00 UTC is second-tier
HH/HL chain off the Asian low; Asian range broken higher in London.
Kiwi has climbed steadily off the 0.5580 Asian low as USD eases from its 18-month top. London cleared the Asian high at 0.5601, and the first hours of NY added a 0.5617 session high before price slipped back to 0.5614. The 0.5608 NY dip low held on the rising trendline, and RSI(14) is near 64, not stretched.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56008
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 NY dip low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 0.5601 Asian high, near the 38.2% fib of the Asian low to session high leg, returns price to the Asian range
0.5626 range cap is an area to watch for rejection or break if the 0.5617 session high gives way
Bowman remarks and Wednesday's 12:30 UTC US CPI could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 59 · price 0.56116
HH/HL chain from Asian low 0.5580; tight 0.5608–0.5615 band in early NY.
NZD climbed about 35 pips off the 0.5580 Asian low as the USD eased from its 18-month high on softer yields and oil, extending HH/HL through London to a 0.5615 session high. Early NY has stalled under that high, and the 13:00 UTC dip to the 0.5608 NY low was bought back. RSI(14) is near 59, well off overbought.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56037, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56147, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 NY low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 0.5604 swing low, then the 0.5600 round number near the 38.2% fib
Acceptance above the 0.5615 session high opens the 0.5622–0.5626 range cap
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the next major driver; today's US data is minor
13:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling at session high · RSI 63 · price 0.56119
HH/HL chain from Asia low, highs flattening at 0.5614–0.5615.
Asia dipped to 0.5580 before reversing. London broke the 0.5600 round number and built a higher-high chain to a 0.5615 session high as USD eased off its 18-month top on softer yields. Highs have flattened at 0.5614–0.5615 into the NY open, with rising support and the 0.5610 swing low still intact.
Support: 0.56102, 0.56067, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56147, 0.5622
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5610 swing low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain
Failure at the 0.5607 pullback low exposes the 0.5600 round number, near the 38.2% of the rally
A close above the 0.5615 session high opens the 0.5622 range top
The US 10y yield direction during NY hours is the main driver for this read
12:46 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under session high · RSI 70 · price 0.56136
Higher-low chain from the 0.5580 Asia low; Asian range high broken during London.
Buyers stepped in at the 0.5580 Asia low and London extended the break above the 0.5600 Asian high to a 0.5615 session high, with USD easing off 18-month highs. Price is coiling just under the session high into the London-NY transition, RSI(14) near 70 and the rising trendline intact, with the last intraday HL at 0.5610.
Support: 0.56102, 0.56067, 0.56008
Resistance: 0.56147, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5610 intraday HL and the rising trendline breaks the HL chain; the 0.5607 swing low is next.
Loss of the 0.5600 Asian high (38.2% fib) puts price back inside the Asian range.
Close above the 0.5615 session high opens the 0.5626 range cap flagged in the digest.
Bowman at 14:55 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Higher highs and higher lows from the 0.5580 Asian low; Asian high broken in London.
NZD climbed off the 0.5580 low early in the Asia session as USD eased from its 18-month high on softer yields and oil. London broke the Asian high at 0.5601 and built a higher-low chain to a 0.5615 session high. RSI(14) has cooled to about 61 as the bars compress just under that high into the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.56067, 0.56037, 0.56008
Resistance: 0.56147, 0.5622
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5607 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; the 0.5604 prior low comes next
Acceptance above the 0.5615 session high brings the 0.5622–0.5630 range top into play
A return below the 0.5601 Asian high would put the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally at 0.5601 in focus
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst; NY-session yield and oil swings can shift this read before then
HH/HL chain from Asian low, pressing session high.
Kiwi has climbed about 35 pips off the 0.5580 Asian low, near the 18-month floor, as USD eased with softer yields. The pair held a clean higher-low chain through London and is now at the 0.5615 session high into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) at 66 and not stretched. The 0.5630 range top sits about 15 pips overhead.
Support: 0.56067, 0.56037, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56147, 0.5563
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5607 swing low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.5604 pullback low and the 0.5600 round number
Acceptance above the 0.5615 session high brings the 0.5626–0.5630 range top into play, an area to watch for rejection or break
US ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC) could jolt USD during NY hours
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
12:03 UTC
Uptrend, extending into session high · RSI 66 · price 0.56119
HH/HL chain from the 0.5580 Asia low; Asian range broken higher in London.
London broke above the Asian range high at 0.5597 and the 0.5600 psych level, and the higher-low chain carried price to a 0.5614 session high as USD eased off 18-month highs on softer yields. Price is stalling just under the session high into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) at 66, firm but not stretched. The 38.2% retracement of the Asia-low rally sits on the 0.5600 psych level.
Support: 0.56067, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56139, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5607 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
0.5622 range top, the lower edge of the 0.5622–0.5630 cap, is the next overhead test above the session high
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could jolt USD early in NY hours
Loss of the 0.5600 psych level, the 38.2% fib, puts the Asian range back in play
London broke above the Asian range high; price pressing the session high.
Higher lows have stacked steadily since the 0.5580 Asian low. London cleared the 0.5600 Asian high and extended to a 0.5613 session high as USD eased on softer yields. RSI(14) is near 68, warm but not stretched, and the late-London grind has the 0.5622 range top about 9 pips overhead.
Support: 0.56067, 0.5600, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56133, 0.5622, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5607 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and the Asia trendline
Loss of 0.5600 (asian high, 38.2% of the Asia-London fib) puts price back inside the Asian range
0.5622 range top and 0.5630 6-week cap: area to watch for rejection or break
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
Failure to hold above the asian low at 0.5580 would erase the session rebound
HH/HL sequence since Asia low; Asian range high broken in London.
NZDUSD has climbed from the 0.5580 Asian low. London took out the Asian high at 0.5600 and printed a swing low at 0.5604 before setting a new session high at 0.5613 into the London-NY transition, as USD eases off its 18-month top on softer yields. RSI(14) is near 68 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips, so the move is extended but not stretched.
Support: 0.56037, 0.56005
Resistance: 0.56128, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5604 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Return below the 0.5600 Asian high, also the 38.2% of the Asia low-session high fib, would mark the London break as a false break
Sustained trade above the 0.5613 session high opens the 0.5626 range cap
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could shift the read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
11:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending into the London session · RSI 69 · price 0.56114
Higher-high / higher-low chain from the 0.5580 Asia low; 0.5600 broken and held.
Price has climbed steadily from the 0.5580 Asia low, cleared the 0.5600 round number and prior-day high, and printed a fresh session high at 0.56125, with London higher lows at 0.56015 and the 0.56067 swing low. The move tracks USD easing on softer yields. RSI(14) sits near 69, warm but not stretched, and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56067, 0.5600, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56125, 0.5626
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.56067 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain
An M15 close back below the 0.5600 round number (38.2% of the Asia low to session high move) turns the breakout into a false break
0.5626 range top has capped for six weeks; it is the area to watch for rejection or break above the session high
ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could shift this read; Wed US CPI is the larger event risk
11:03 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under session high · RSI 65 · price 0.56087
HH/HL chain from Asian low, prior-day high cleared.
The bounce from the 0.5580 Asian low has built a clean HH/HL chain along a rising trendline through London, clearing yesterday's 0.5600 prior high as the USD eased with yields. Price is stalling late in London just under the 0.5611 session high, with RSI(14) near 65 and the 0.5604 swing low the nearest higher low.
Support: 0.56037, 0.56006, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56108, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5604 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 0.5600 prior high and the rising trendline would reopen the 0.5592–0.5580 Asian low area
Close above the 0.5611 session high exposes the 0.5626 range top
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, prior-day high cleared in London.
The rally off the 0.5580 Asian low has held a clean higher-high, higher-low chain as the USD eased with yields. London cleared the Asian high and the prior high at 0.5601, and the session high at 0.5611 is now in test with RSI(14) near 68. Pullbacks have held the rising trendline, with the latest swing low at 0.5604.
Support: 0.56037, 0.56006, 0.55971
Resistance: 0.56108, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5604 swing low breaks the HL chain and the rising trendline
Slip back under 0.5601 prior high, then 0.5597 asian high, would mark the London breakout as a false break
Clearance of 0.5611 session high leaves the 0.5626 range cap as the next resistance
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC around NY open; Wednesday's US CPI is the larger risk to this read
HH/HL chain from Asia low, Asian range broken to the upside.
NZDUSD bounced from the 0.5580 session low early in Asia. London then broke the Asian range high and the 0.5600 round number, printing a HH/HL chain to a 0.5611 session high as USD eased off its 18-month top. RSI(14) near 71 is hot but not extreme, and the rising support line plus the 0.5604 swing low frame the structure into the NY open.
Support: 0.56037, 0.5600, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56108, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5604 swing low and rising support breaks the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 0.5600 round number puts the breakout back inside the Asian range
A push through the 0.5611 session high leaves the 0.5626 month cap as the next reference
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC) during NY hours could shift the USD leg
Wednesday's US CPI is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
10:03 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs through London · RSI 71 · price 0.56083
HH/HL chain off the Asia low, Asian range and prior high broken.
London broke the Asian high at 0.5597 and Monday's 0.5600 prior high, extending a HH/HL chain from the 0.5580 Asia low to a session high at 0.56086 as USD eased off its 18-month peak. RSI(14) at 71 is warm but not stretched. The rising trendline from London and the 0.5604 swing low are the nearest supports.
Support: 0.56037, 0.56006, 0.55971
Resistance: 0.56086, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5604 swing low and rising trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 0.5600 prior high puts the break back inside the Asian range below 0.5597
Acceptance above the 0.56086 session high leaves the 0.5626 month cap as the next reference
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC during the London-NY transition could shift USD tone ahead of Wednesday's CPI
09:47 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under session high · RSI 67 · price 0.5605
HH/HL chain off the Asia low; London broke above the Asian high.
The Asia rebound off the 18m low near 0.5580 built a HH/HL chain. London broke the 0.5600 asian high as USD eased from its 18-month top. Mid-London, price is holding just under the 0.56075 session high, with RSI(14) near 67 and ATR about 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5592, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56075, 0.5626
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.5600 asian high and rising trendline would mark the London breakout as a false break
Loss of the 0.5592 swing low, inside the asia rally fib 38.2–50% zone, breaks the intraday HL sequence
A close above the 0.56075 session high opens the 0.5626 month cap, which has capped every recovery this month
US ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC into the NY open could shift this read
Wednesday's US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the main risk to the structure
09:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended off Asia low · RSI 64 · price 0.56039
Higher lows through London after a break of Monday's high and the Asian range.
After an Asia low at 0.5580, the London session broke the Asian range and Monday's prior high at 0.5601 as the USD eased. Price has posted higher lows into a 0.56075 session high; the latest bar has slipped back to 0.5604, and RSI(14) has cooled from the mid-60s.
Support: 0.5601, 0.5595, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56075, 0.5626
What it said to watch
Hold of 0.5601 prior high keeps the breakout and rising support from the London swing lows intact
Break of the 0.5595 swing low ends the higher-low chain and opens the 38.2–50% fib of the 0.5580–0.56075 leg (0.5597–0.5594)
Close above the 0.56075 session high opens the path to the 0.5626 range top
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Budget Statement (18:00 UTC) could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
Loss of 0.5580 asia low would mark a fresh 18-month low
09:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, HH/HL chain from Asian low · RSI 70 · price 0.56065
London broke Asian high and Monday's prior high; pressing session high.
Kiwi climbed off the 0.5580 Asian low as yields and oil eased, and London extended it through the 0.5597 asian high and Monday's 0.5602 prior high to a 0.56075 session high. RSI(14) is near 70, and the 0.5592 swing low anchors the rising trendline.
Support: 0.5602, 0.5597, 0.5592
Resistance: 0.56075, 0.5610, 0.5622
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5602 prior high would put the breakout back inside the asian high area at 0.5597
M15 close below the 0.5592 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and the trendline
0.5610 round number, then the 0.5622-0.5630 bounce cap that has capped prior rallies
ADP (12:15 UTC) is second-tier; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk to this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low, London broke above Asian range.
Price built higher lows from the 0.5580 Asian low, then London broke the 0.5595 Asian high and the 0.5600 round number as the USD gave back part of Monday's gain on easing yields and oil. Higher lows at 0.5592, 0.5595 and 0.5600 are intact, but highs are stalling near the 0.5605 session high with RSI(14) at 71.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55946, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56055, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5600 round number breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the asia trendline and the 0.5595 Asian high (near the 38.2% asia-london fib) returns price to the Asian range
Acceptance above the 0.5605 session high puts the 0.5622 bounce cap in view
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and moves in oil or US yields during NY hours could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's CPI
HH/HL chain off the 0.5580 Asian low; London broke the Asian range high and is retesting 0.5600.
London extended the Asian rebound off 0.5580, clearing the 0.5595 Asian high and Monday's 0.5602 high to a 0.5605 session high as the dollar paused after Monday's oil-driven spike. The last two bars are drifting back onto the 0.5600 round number with RSI(14) near 64, and higher lows along the rising trendline are still intact.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55946, 0.55895
Resistance: 0.56054, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5600 round number turns the London breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5595 Asian high and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the fib 61.8 retracement at 0.5590
Close above the 0.5605 session high opens the path toward the 0.5622 bounce cap that has capped prior rallies
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC is second-tier; Wednesday's US CPI is the main risk to this read
08:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending into London · RSI 73 · price 0.56046
Higher-low chain from the 0.5580 Asian low; London broke above the Asian high.
Asia dipped to the 0.5580 Asian low, then built higher lows at 0.5590 and 0.5592 along rising support. London open broke the 0.5600 Asian high and set a session high at 0.5605 as USD eased on softer yields and oil. RSI(14) near 73 is warm but normal for a trend leg; the 0.5600 retest at 07:45 UTC held.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5592, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56048, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5600 asian high would turn the London move into a false break
Loss of the 0.5592 swing low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain
0.5622-0.5630 bounce cap has repeatedly capped Kiwi rallies
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Budget Statement (18:00 UTC) are second-tier; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk to this read
08:17 UTC
Uptrend, extending into London · RSI 74 · price 0.56037
HH/HL chain off the 0.5580 Asian low, Asian high broken.
NZD stepped higher from the 0.5580 Asian low in a series of higher lows. It cleared the 0.5595 Asian high before London open and pushed through 0.5600 psych to a 0.5605 session high as yields and oil eased. RSI(14) near 74 is hot but trend-normal, and 0.5600 is the first shelf, with the rising trendline and the fib 38.2% near 0.5595 below it.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5595, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5605, 0.5622
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych puts the 0.5595 asian high and the rising trendline back in focus
An M15 close back below 0.5592 breaks the higher-low chain
Extension above the 0.5605 session high leaves the 0.5622 bounce cap as the next reference
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and yield/oil swings during NY hours could shift this read; Wed CPI is the larger risk
Higher lows off the 0.5580 Asia low; London open broke the Asian high.
NZDUSD has climbed steadily off the 0.5580 Asia low as yields and oil eased. London open took out the Asian high near 0.5597 and printed a london high at 0.56044, back above the monday high at 0.5602. RSI(14) sits near 73 with the higher low at 0.5595 holding.
Support: 0.5602, 0.5595, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56044, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5602 monday high would mark the London break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5595 higher low and the Asia trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
0.5622 bounce cap has capped prior rallies, area to watch for rejection or break
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 0.5580 Asia low, pressing yesterday's London high.
Kiwi has stepped up in higher lows since the 0.5580 asia low as US yields and oil eased, and the London open lifted it back to the 0.5604-0.5605 prior high, where the 07:15 UTC bar wicked back. The 0.5595 swing low and 0.5592 higher low (50% fib of the Asia-London leg) mark the base of the intraday trendline; RSI(14) is near 71 with ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.5595, 0.5592, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56045, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5605 prior high clears yesterday's London top; the digest flags 0.5622 as the bounce cap above
Break below the 0.5595 swing low and 0.5592 higher low breaks the higher-low trendline
Loss of the 0.5580 asia low reverts to the multi-month floor the digest highlights
Fed Waller at 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low · RSI 69 · price 0.56014
Higher-low chain from 0.5580, Asian range broken to the upside at London open.
The Kiwi held the 0.5580 Asian low and built higher lows through the session. It then broke the 0.5597 Asian high into London open and set a session high at 0.5602 as US yields and oil eased. Monday's prior high at 0.5605 sits just overhead, with RSI(14) near 69 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.55971, 0.5592, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56019, 0.56048, 0.5622
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.5597 Asian high returns price to the Asian range and flags a false break.
Loss of the 0.5592 higher low breaks the higher-low trendline drawn from the 0.5580 Asian low.
A close above the 0.5605 prior high opens 0.5622–0.5630, the bounce cap that has repeatedly held.
Fed Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read. Wednesday's US CPI is the larger event risk.
07:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, stalling at 0.5600 · RSI 65 · price 0.5597
HH/HL chain through Asia, capped at the asian high in the first London hour.
Asia rebounded from a probe of the 0.5580 multi-month low (asian low) as Treasury yields eased and the USD saw mild profit-taking. Higher lows at 0.5590 and 0.5592 carried price into the 0.5601 asian high, which is capping the first London bars. RSI(14) is near 65, with price holding above the rising trendline and the 38.2% level of the Asian rally fib near 0.5593.
Support: 0.5592, 0.5590, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5601, 0.5606
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5601 asian high opens the 0.5606 prior high from yesterday's London open
Break of the 0.5592 swing low and the rising trendline puts the 0.5590 higher low and the 61.8% fib near 0.5588 in play
Loss of 0.5580 asian low resumes the multi-month low break
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift this read in the next bar or two
07:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low · RSI 61 · price 0.55992
Higher-high / higher-low chain from 0.5580, testing 0.5600.
Monday's London-to-NY slide bottomed at the 0.5580 asian low just after the Tokyo open. The Asia session has since built a clean higher-low chain (0.5590 swing low, 0.5592 higher low) as Treasury yields eased and the dollar paused. Price is pressing the 0.5600 round number into London open, with a wick at 0.56008 and RSI(14) near 61, not stretched.
Support: 0.5592, 0.55895, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56008, 0.56062
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 round number opens Monday's 0.5606 prior high
Break below the 0.5592 higher low, then the 0.5590 swing low, ends the higher-low chain and the asia trendline
Loss of the 0.5580 asian low puts the multi-month low back in focus
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, early London, could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asia low · RSI 64 · price 0.55977
HH/HL chain since 0.5580, pressing session high.
Monday's NY sell-off bottomed at the 0.5580 asia low, and the Asia rally has since printed higher lows at 0.5590 and 0.5592 as USD saw mild profit-taking on softer Treasury yields. Price is pressing the 0.5598 session high just under the 0.5600 round number into London open, with RSI(14) near 64 and not stretched.
Support: 0.5592, 0.5589, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5598, 0.5600, 0.5609
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 round number reclaims Monday's early London range and opens the 0.5609 monday high
Break of the 0.5592 higher low and the asia trendline ends the HH/HL chain, exposing the 0.5589 fib 50%
Loss of the 0.5580 asia low, also the multi-month low, reverts to Monday's NY downtrend structure
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, with US CPI on Wednesday, could materially shift this read
06:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia low, pausing · RSI 57 · price 0.55942
Higher lows since 0.55796, stalled below 0.5600.
Asia held just above the 0.5580 multi-month low at 0.55796 and built a higher-low chain to a 0.55971 session high. Price was rejected under the 0.5600 round number, where Monday's London decline began. The pullback into London open is testing the Asia rising trendline and the 0.5592 swing low, with RSI(14) near 57 and USD firm ahead of Waller and Wednesday's US CPI.
Support: 0.5592, 0.55895, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.55971, 0.5600, 0.56112
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5592 swing low and the 0.55895 higher low breaks the Asia HL chain
Rejection at the 0.55971 session high or the 0.5600 round number keeps the bounce capped below Monday's breakdown area
Close above 0.5600 opens the path to the 0.5611 monday high
Loss of the 0.55796 asia low puts the 0.5580 multi-month low back in play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift the read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger overhang
06:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia low, stalling · RSI 57 · price 0.55947
Higher lows since 00:30 UTC, capped below 0.5600.
Asia session found demand at 0.55796, a test of the 0.5580 multi-month low, and built a higher-low chain at 0.5585 and the 0.55895 swing low to a 0.55971 session high. RSI(14) sits near 57 and the pair is pausing just under the 0.5600 round number into London open, with the digest flagging limited upside ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.55895, 0.5585, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.55971, 0.56006
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.55895 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the trendline support
Clearance of the 0.55971 session high and the 0.5600 round number extends the Asia rebound into Monday's 0.5600–0.5610 London range
Loss of the 0.55796 asia low puts the 0.5580 multi-month low back in play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD tone during early London
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main swing risk for this structure
06:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asia low · RSI 67 · price 0.55966
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.5580 sweep.
Asia session dipped to 0.55796, just under the 0.5580 multi-mo low, then reversed as DXY eased on profit-taking. The Asia rally has printed a clean higher-low chain (0.5585 swing low, 0.5590 higher low) and price now sits at the session high, pressing Monday's 0.5598 pivot ahead of London open with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 0.5590, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5598, 0.5600, 0.5612
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 round number clears the Monday pivot and opens the 0.5612 prior high
Break below the 0.5590 higher low ends the higher-lows sequence; loss of the 0.5585 swing low puts the multi-mo low back in focus
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia rally fib 50% near 0.5588 sits just under the 0.5590 higher low
Asia HH/HL rebound off 0.5580, consolidating under Asia high.
The Asia session rejected the 0.5580 Asia low near the multi-month low at 00:30 UTC. Price rebounded 15 pips to a 0.5595 Asia high, recovering part of Monday's London-NY slide from the 0.5612 Monday high. The pullback printed a higher low at 0.5590, just above the 38.2% fib. Price is now consolidating under the Asia high ahead of London open, with a firm USD into Wednesday's CPI capping the bounce so far.
Support: 0.55895, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.55946, 0.56006, 0.56122
What it said to watch
Break above the 0.5595 Asia high extends the HH/HL chain toward the 0.5600 round number, then the 0.5612 Monday high
M15 close below the 0.5590 higher low breaks the rebound structure and reopens the 0.5580 Asia low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, early in the London session, could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger swing factor
05:32 UTC
Intraday rebound, stalling below Asia high · RSI 60 · price 0.55915
HH/HL chain off Asia low, tight consolidation near highs.
The Asia session pushed under Monday's 0.5583 NY low and the 0.5580 multi-month floor to an Asia low of 0.55796, then reversed. Price printed a higher low at 0.5585 and an Asia high at 0.55946 as USD eased off its highs. Price is now compressing around 0.5591 on rising support and above the 0.55895 pullback low, with roughly 1.5h to London open.
Support: 0.55895, 0.5585, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.55946, 0.5600, 0.56122
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.55946 Asia high exposes the 0.5600 round number, then the 0.56122 Monday high
Loss of the 0.55895 pullback low and rising support turns focus to the 0.5585 higher low
Return below the 0.55796 Asia low negates the sweep-and-reverse read
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could move USD in early London; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
Monday low swept to 0.5580, higher low at 0.5585, lower highs off 0.5595.
Monday's London/NY slide on oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD is intact below the 0.5600 round number. Asia swept Monday's 0.5582 low to an asian low at 0.5580, the 17-month low, then produced a 15-pip asian rebound to the 0.5595 asian high. Late Asia is now fading toward the fib 50% at 0.5587, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 0.55871, 0.5585, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.55946, 0.5600, 0.56122
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5585 higher low reopens the 0.5580 asian low and 17-month low.
A London-open push through the 0.5595 asian high exposes the 0.5600 round number. Only a reclaim of the 0.5612 prior high, Monday's session high, would invalidate the down-leg read.
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and pre-CPI USD positioning could shift this read during London.
04:47 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 54 · price 0.5590
Asian higher-low chain off 0.5580, pulling back from 0.5595.
Monday's London and NY sessions sold NZDUSD from the 0.5612 day high to 0.5583 as oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD weighed. The Asia session bounced off the 0.5580 asian low near the 17-month floor and stalled at the 0.5595 asian high. Price is now back at 0.5590, roughly the 38.2% fib of that bounce, with RSI(14) near 54 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5595, 0.5600, 0.5612
What it said to watch
Holding the 0.5585 higher low keeps the Asian chain intact; losing it exposes the 0.5580 asian low
A close above the 0.5595 asian high brings the 0.5600 round number and 0.5612 day high into view
Waller at 07:45 UTC and Wednesday's US CPI could shift the USD tone and this read
04:32 UTC
Asia rebound from the low, momentum stalling · RSI 56 · price 0.5591
Higher-low chain off 0.5580 capped at 0.5595 Asia high.
Monday's oil-driven risk-off slide from the 0.5612 prior high ran into the 17m low at 0.5580 at the Asia open, where demand absorbed the move. The Asia bounce printed higher lows but stalled at the 0.5595 Asia high, and late Asia session price is drifting at 0.5591, holding just above the ema20 with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.5590, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5595, 0.5600, 0.5612
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.5585 asia pivot and the rising trendline undoes the Asia higher-low chain and puts the 17m low at 0.5580 back in play.
An M15 close above the 0.5595 asia high exposes the 0.5600 figure, which capped Monday's NY bounce.
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC lands in early London and could shift USD tone before Wednesday's US CPI.
Higher lows off the Asia low, stalling under 0.5595.
Early Asia briefly broke below the 0.5580 17-month low, printing an Asia low at 0.55796. Price then rebounded about 15 pips in a higher-low chain to the 0.55946 Asia high as DXY eased off its highs. Upside is stalling just under that level with RSI(14) near 62, after Monday's oil-driven slide from 0.5612 capped at the 0.5600 round number.
Support: 0.5591, 0.5585, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.55946, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5591 higher low exposes the late-ny base at 0.5585, near the 61.8% of the Asia rebound fib
M15 close above the 0.55946 Asia high opens the path to the 0.5600 round number
A break back below the 0.55796 Asia low resumes the lower-low sequence through 0.5580
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around the London open, could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
Asian sweep below 0.5580 reversed into a HH/HL chain.
Late Asia session: an early dip below 0.5580 printed a 0.55796 sweep low, then reversed into a higher-low chain that cleared Monday's NY range top at 0.5589 as DXY eased slightly. Price is pressing the 0.5595 session high, just above the 38.2% retracement of Monday's slide, with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 0.5589, 0.5585, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.55946, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5589 range top undoes the breakout and returns price to Monday's NY range
A break of the Asian trendline and the 0.5585 swing low would put the 0.5580 sweep low back in focus
Acceptance above the 0.5595 session high opens the 0.5600 figure, where supply capped price early Monday
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read, with US CPI due Wed 12:30 UTC
03:47 UTC
Intraday rebound, higher highs off the low · RSI 64 · price 0.55922
Asia HH/HL chain after a sweep of Monday's low.
Tuesday's Asia session briefly took out the 0.5580 swing low (0.55796) after Monday's London-NY selloff, then reversed into a higher-high/higher-low chain to a 0.55946 session high as DXY eased. Price is stalling just under that high, below Monday's London breakdown zone and the 0.5600 round number, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 0.5585, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.55946, 0.5600
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.55946 session high opens the 0.5600 round number, where Monday's London decline began
A break of the 0.5585 asia hl ends the higher-low sequence and puts the 0.5580 swing low back in play
A move back below the 0.5580 swing low turns the Asia sweep into a fresh lower low
Fed's Waller (07:45 UTC) sits about four hours out and could shift the USD leg into London open
03:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, Asia rebound in progress · RSI 66 · price 0.5594
Asia sweep of 0.5580 low followed by higher-high/higher-low chain.
Asia dipped below Monday's late-NY base to a 0.5580 session low, near the 17-month low flagged in the digest, then stepped back to 0.5594 on a chain of higher lows. Price now sits between the 38.2% and fib 50% retrace of Monday's 0.5612–0.5580 decline. The round number at 0.5600 capped the London-NY transition bounce yesterday.
Support: 0.5591, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5596, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the fib 50% at 0.5596 puts the 0.5600 round number in play
Break of the 0.5591 higher low and the Asia trendline ends the rebound sequence and exposes the 0.5585 ny base
Failure to hold the 0.5580 session low confirms a fresh lower-low below the 17-month low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC around London open could materially shift this read via USD yields
Asia higher lows off 0.5580 after false break; capped at 38.2% fib.
Early Asia slipped to a 0.5580 session low, briefly below the prior rollover low. Price was rejected there and has put in higher lows up to the 0.5593 asian high as USD eases. That high sits on the 38.2% retracement of Monday's decline from the 0.5612 London high; RSI(14) is near 58.
Support: 0.5585, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.55929, 0.55959, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5593 asian high and the 50% fib at 0.5596 extends the rebound toward the 0.5600 round number
Break of the 0.5585 higher low unwinds the Asia rebound and puts the 0.5580 session low back in play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Intraday rebound within a broader decline, higher lows since Asia · RSI 61 · price 0.55922
False break below 0.5580, then HH/HL chain clearing the overnight range top.
Monday's London-NY slide from 0.5612 bottomed in a flat 0.5583–0.5589 range. Early Asia then dipped to 0.55796, briefly piercing the 0.5580 17m low, and reversed. Higher lows at 0.5585 and a clear of the 0.5589 range top have price pressing the 0.5593 Asia high, near 38.2% of Monday's decline, as USD eases in Asia.
Support: 0.5589, 0.5585, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.55929, 0.55963, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5589 range top returns price to Monday's late range
Loss of the 0.5585 higher low breaks the rising trendline off the 17m low
Acceptance above the 0.5593 Asia high exposes the 0.5596 swing high and the 0.5600 figure
Renewed trade below the 0.5580 17m low turns the false break into a lower-low
Fed Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD and change this read
02:47 UTC
Monday downtrend, Asia rebound in progress · RSI 58 · price 0.55905
False break of Monday low, micro HH/HL since.
In the Asia session, price swept below the 0.5583 Monday low to the 0.5580 Asia low, near the 17-month floor, then reversed as USD eased. Price is now pressing the 0.5592 session high, which sits at the 38.2% retrace of Monday's 0.5612–0.5580 drop. The 0.5585 higher low holds, RSI(14) is near 58 and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.5585, 0.55829, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.55915, 0.5597, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5592 session high opens the 0.5597 prior swing and the 0.5600 round number
Break below the 0.5585 higher low puts the Monday low at 0.5583 back in play
Loss of the 0.5580 Asia low turns the sweep into a fresh lower low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around London open, could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia rebound · RSI 61 · price 0.55911
Monday lower highs and lows; Asia higher low after a dip to 0.5580.
Asian session pushed below Monday's NY lows to the 0.5580 asia low, then reversed to 0.5591, back above the 0.5583–0.5589 range top that capped the NY session. Price is now testing the fib 38.2 retracement of Monday's 0.5612–0.5580 slide near 0.5593, with the USD still firm on oil and hawkish Fed talk.
Support: 0.5589, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5593 fib 38.2 opens the 0.5600 round number
Slip back below the 0.5589 range top puts the 0.5585 higher low in play
Break of the 0.5580 asia low resumes the downtrend toward fresh lows
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 50 · price 0.5586
Asia sweep of 0.5580 reclaimed; rotating inside 0.5580–0.5590 Asian range.
Monday's London-NY slide from 0.5612 printed lower highs into 0.5583 as an oil-driven USD bid weighed. Asia swept that low to the 0.5580 asia low, which is also the 17-month low, then bounced to the 0.5590 asia high. Price now sits mid-range near the 0.5585 pullback low, just under EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral around 50.
Support: 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5590, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5580 asia low confirms a fresh lower-low below the 17-month low
M15 close above the 0.5590 asia high opens the 0.5600 round number and Monday's NY high
A break of the 0.5585 pullback low puts the Asia bounce fib 61.8% in play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, near the London open, could shift this read; US CPI follows Wed 12:30 UTC
02:03 UTC
Downtrend stalling, Asia rebound · RSI 51 · price 0.55875
False break below 0.5580, higher low at 0.5585.
Monday's London-NY slide from the 0.5600 round number stalled in a tight 0.5583-0.5587 band, in line with oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD. In the Asia session the pair dipped to a 0.55796 sweep low just under the 0.5580 17-month low and snapped back. It set a higher low at 0.55851 and is now pressing the 0.5590 asia high, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.55851, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.55897, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5590 asia high extends the rebound toward the 0.5600 round number
Loss of the 0.55851 higher low and the rising support line returns price to the overnight range
Break of the 0.55796 sweep low would turn the false break into a lower low below 0.5580
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD tone into London open
US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger USD risk this week
01:47 UTC
Downtrend stalling into Asia range · RSI 46 · price 0.55858
Lower highs from 0.5612; Asian range 0.5580–0.5589 after a sweep of the NY low.
Monday's London and NY sessions ground lower from 0.5612 as oil-driven risk aversion lifted the USD, with the London open breaking below the 0.5600 round number. The early Asia dip swept the 0.5583 NY low to the 0.5580 Asian low and was bought back. Price now sits mid-range below the 0.5589 Asian high and under the 23.6% of the Monday decline fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.5583, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5589, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5580 Asian low, also the 17-month low, confirms a lower-low and extends the Monday decline
Close above the 0.5589 Asian high reopens the 0.5600 round number, where the London breakdown started
Slipping back under the 0.5583 NY low would negate the sweep-and-recover read
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC near London open could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
01:17 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce off lows · RSI 54 · price 0.55872
Lower highs from 0.5612; false break below 0.5580 reclaimed.
Monday's grind lower from 0.5612 through London and NY stalled at the 0.5583 NY low, and early Asia dipped through the 0.5580 17-month low to 0.55796 before snapping back to 0.5587, a false break with RSI(14) back near 54. Price now sits on the 23.6% fib of the session decline, just under the 0.5589 session high, with oil-driven USD demand still in the background.
Support: 0.5583, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5589, 0.5592, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.5583 NY low would neutralise the false break and put the 0.5580 17-month low back in play
Close above the 0.5589 session high opens the 38.2% fib at 0.5592, then the 0.5600 figure
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD tone ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing at the lows · RSI 44 · price 0.55829
Lower highs from NY open; brief sub-0.5580 dip, back at old range floor.
The NY leg from 0.5601 to 0.5583 on oil-driven USD demand left a chain of lower highs. It then went flat into a 0.5582–0.5589 range through rollover. The 00:00 UTC breakdown in early Asia briefly pierced 0.5580 to a 0.55796 session low, and price is back at 0.5583 with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 2.3 pips, so far without follow-through below the 17-month low.
Support: 0.55796
Resistance: 0.55873, 0.55892
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.55796 session low would extend the downtrend to a fresh low under 0.5580
Recovery above the 0.55873 breakdown bar puts price back inside the range; 0.55892 range top and the lower highs line sit just above
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, ahead of Wednesday's US CPI, could shift USD tone into London
Lower highs since Monday's London open took NZDUSD from 0.5612 back below the figure. Early in Tuesday's Asia session it broke the 0.5583 NY low and printed an asia low at 0.5580, right on the 17-month low, as oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD weigh. RSI(14) near 39 is not stretched, and ATR(14) is about 2.3 pips.
Support: 0.55796
Resistance: 0.5583, 0.55892, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5580 asia low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the 17-month low
Recovery back above the 0.5583 ny low would mark the break as a false break and return price to the NY range
Close above the 0.5589 asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC (London open) could shift USD tone ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Lower highs from 0.5619; fresh window low probing 0.5580.
NZDUSD bled from Monday's 0.5619 Asian high through London and NY, capped by a lower-highs line as oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD weighed. The pair drifted in a 0.5583–0.5589 band late in the session. Early Tuesday Asia has slipped back to a fresh window low at 0.5582, just above the 0.5580 17-month low, with RSI(14) near 41 and no oversold extreme.
Support: 0.55819, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55892, 0.5600
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5580 17-month low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the window low
A recovery above the 0.5589 late high breaks the lower-highs line and turns the read toward range
The 0.5600 round number lines up with the 50% retrace of the day decline
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight 0.5582–0.5589 range after a London-NY lower-high chain.
London and NY extended Monday's slide from the 0.5612 swing high to 0.5583 as oil-driven USD demand persisted. Price has since compressed below 0.5600, and the early Asia session's push to the 0.5589 Asia high faded. It now sits just above the 0.5582 session low and the 0.5580 17m low, with ATR near 2 pips.
Support: 0.55822, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55892, 0.5600, 0.56122
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5582 session low puts the 0.5580 17m low in play
M15 close above the 0.5589 Asia high reopens the round number at 0.5600, near the 38.2% of the London-NY leg fib
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around London open, could break the compression
Lower highs through London, flat 0.5582–0.5589 base since NY afternoon.
Monday's London-led slide from 0.5612 to the 0.5582 session low has stalled into a tight 0.5582–0.5589 consolidation through NY afternoon and the early Asia session. Oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD have kept NZD pinned just above the 0.5580 17-month low. The asia high at 0.5589 caps the bounce near the 23.6% retrace of the Monday decline, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 2 pips.
Support: 0.55822, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55892, 0.55963, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5582 session low exposes the 0.5580 17m low
M15 close above the 0.5589 asia high opens the 0.5596 lower high and the 0.5600 figure
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read